Gol Cancels All Flights To Venezuela

gabo787 · Wed Feb 10, 2016 3:07 pm

http://panampost.com/panam-staff/201...irlines-says-goodbye-to-venezuela/

Another airline say good bye to the Venezuelan market due to the impossibility to get their money out of the country. Gol has US$90 million that after several months of negotiation they can't send back home.
I feel for the Venezuelan people travelling for them is more difficult than ever.

[Edited 2016-02-10 07:09:29]

Coal · Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:53 pm

And with the situation in Venezuela getting worse by the day with oil at or below $30, I would not be surprised if more and more airlines pull out of the country.

G500 · Wed Feb 10, 2016 10:04 pm

Quoting Coal (Reply 1):
And with the situation in Venezuela getting worse by the day with oil at or below $30, I would not be surprised if more and more airlines pull out of the country.

Well if they impeach Chavez-Castro wanna be Mr. Maduro, things could turn around fast. Obviously the damage has been done, but a new president would give airlines an incentive to come back

pzurita1 · Wed Feb 10, 2016 10:08 pm

Quoting g500 (Reply 2):
a new president would give airlines an incentive to come back

Despite all their best efforts and wishes, I find it very very difficult. With low bottom oil prices, I doubt Venezuela has any money to lure them... Airlines will now only respond to $$$$$ to be back. No promise will be enough no matter who is promising.

B777LRF · Wed Feb 10, 2016 10:25 pm

Quoting g500 (Reply 2):
but a new president would give airlines an incentive to come back

Of all the problems facing Venezuela, 'getting the airlines back' should be item number 200 and something on the list of priorities for a new president.

Marcus · Wed Feb 10, 2016 10:32 pm

Quoting g500 (Reply 2):
things could turn around fast

No, things are so bad in Venezuela and have been for so long that the recovery will not be fast and it will not start any time soon.

Okie · Thu Feb 11, 2016 12:10 am

Quoting g500 (Reply 2):
Well if they impeach Chavez-Castro wanna be Mr. Maduro, things could turn around fast. Obviously the damage has been done, but a new president would give airlines an incentive to come back

Maduro has threatened not to let airlines who pull their services the ability to reinstate.
However, at this point I doubt that Maduro is going to last much longer.

US airlines are just selling tickets in US Dollars and not Bolivars for Venezuela service.

News flash, there will be no short term fast turn around.

Venezuela had about a 300% inflation rate the last two years and an estimated 700%+ for 2016.
That 100 Bolivar bill in a billfold is going to be worth about .10 by the end of the year.

Things are starting to get real bad real fast. The government socialist guaranteed income is going to be practically worthless to even purchase substance (food) at those inflation rates.

Okie

thekorean · Thu Feb 11, 2016 12:37 am

Quoting Okie (Reply 6):

It's not even most of the socialist policy that's killing them. Mauro refuse to devalue Bolivar.

ThePointblank · Thu Feb 11, 2016 12:49 am

Quoting thekorean (Reply 7):
It's not even most of the socialist policy that's killing them. Mauro refuse to devalue Bolivar.

It's a systematic issue with the Venezuelan economy brought on by government policies. There's intense speculation that Venezuela will default this year, especially if oil prices remains this low, and it would be a much more severe and messy affair than Argentina's default in 2001.

pipeafcr · Thu Feb 11, 2016 1:29 am

Also I don't know if its any relevant or not, but Aeromexico's flights to CCS are not bookable after May 31. Not sure if the route is being cancelled or what's going on

lightsaber · Thu Feb 11, 2016 2:07 am

Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 8):

It's a systematic issue with the Venezuelan economy brought on by government policies. There's intense speculation that Venezuela will default this year, especially if oil prices remains this low, and it would be a much more severe and messy affair than Argentina's default in 2001.

Sad to think it will only get worse.

Until Venezuela realizes their socialist policies have run out of other people's money to spend, it will get worse fast.

Airline service will plumet with the economy.

Lightsaber

Coal · Thu Feb 11, 2016 2:24 am

Quoting g500 (Reply 2):
things could turn around fast

Quoting Marcus (Reply 5):
No, things are so bad in Venezuela and have been for so long that the recovery will not be fast and it will not start any time soon.

Read this:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/09/wo...ering-on-the-brink.html?ref=topics

I think even if the (fragmented) opposition manages to oust Maduro (doubtful), the country will just descend into civil unrest (maybe even civil war). Even in the unlikely scenario that does not happen, with the oil price where it is and virtually no industrial base, things will be very tough for Venezuela for a very long time.

Incredible, to think it was one of the richest countries in South America just a couple of decades ago.

SonomaFlyer · Thu Feb 11, 2016 3:01 am

Venezuela is headed for rock bottom. Given their dependence on oil prices, lack of economic diversity and insane government policies, it will get much worse.

I feel for the people there but I've steered everyone who's thought of traveling there away from Venezuela for the next few years. The airline trips there are mostly turns but the overnight lines are junior - no one wants to go down there.

cf105arrow · Thu Feb 11, 2016 4:58 am

What international airlines still fly to Venezuela?

redadeco · Thu Feb 11, 2016 5:20 am

Quoting CF105Arrow (Reply 13):

What international airlines still fly to Venezuela?

Copa, Avianca, Aerolineas Argentinas, AA, Iberia, Lufthansa, LAN, TAP, Air Europa and most importantly... Cubana

goldorak · Thu Feb 11, 2016 6:21 am

Quoting redadeco (Reply 15):
Copa, Avianca, Aerolineas Argentinas, AA, Iberia, Lufthansa, LAN, TAP, Air Europa and most importantly... Cubana

Air France also.

flyingturtle · Thu Feb 11, 2016 11:28 am

And I read

God Cancels All Flights to Venezuela

...

David

einsteinboricua · Thu Feb 11, 2016 12:41 pm

Quoting Coal (Reply 11):
Incredible, to think it was one of the richest countries in South America just a couple of decades ago.

Essentially, South America's equivalent to Zimbabwe. When they nationalized companies, instead of keeping the well trained folks, they put people who had no idea what they were doing just because they were loyalists. So now, it's not just the collapse of oil prices. Venezuelan crude is heavy and sour so refining it requires more effort. Compounded with unskilled labor and low prices, you have the recipe for disaster.

AF086 · Thu Feb 11, 2016 12:59 pm

Quoting goldorak (Reply 16):

And TAM

A388 · Thu Feb 11, 2016 1:11 pm

Insel Air, Aruba Airlines, United and Caribbean Airlines also (still) fly to Venezuela.

A388

adriaticus · Thu Feb 11, 2016 1:57 pm

And Aeromexico (for the time being).

airtran737 · Thu Feb 11, 2016 2:57 pm

You reap what you sew. I am sure there will be more carriers to pull out of the country soon.

dfwjim1 · Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:23 pm

I am kind of curious as to why Cuba has not experienced the same issues as Venezuela.

par13del · Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:46 pm

Quoting g500 (Reply 2):
Well if they impeach Chavez-Castro wanna be Mr. Maduro, things could turn around fast.

If you mean by putting the country further into hock, then yes, things can turn around real quick, the country would spend decades of its income paying off investors before 01 cent can be spent on themselves, a tough price to pay but as is said, you reap what you sow.

Quoting dfwjim1 (Reply 23):
I am kind of curious as to why Cuba has not experienced the same issues as Venezuela.

It is not fashionable to talk about a socialist country that is fairly well run, imagine if the embargo was not in place?
The fall of the Soviet Union did have a major impact on Cuba, but when you look at them today, is there any comparison between Cuba and Venezuela?

EddieDude · Fri Feb 12, 2016 12:19 am

Quoting dfwjim1 (Reply 23):
I am kind of curious as to why Cuba has not experienced the same issues as Venezuela.

I suppose you have different factors. Cubans could not possibly get any poorer. Tourism and remittances from Cuban-Americans and other Cubans living abroad do represent a steady income for the country and its inhabitants in the form of hard currency, as do exports of sugar, limited foreign investment in certain sectors, etc. Also, Cuba never depended on oil exports to sustain their economy.

Venezuela on the other hand is in free fall. Venezuela always had a lot of inequality, but just seventeen years ago it was considered a middle income emerging market. Without the oil revenue Venezuela was historically enjoying, the Venezuelan economy is like a house of cards collapsing as we speak. With rampant inflation, foreign exchange controls, social programs that are esentially botomless pits, expropriations being so common, etc., there is zero incentive for the private sector to invest, so you have a vicious circle of deterioration of a heavily state-controlled economy that depends almost solely on one commodity currently priced at historically record lows.

I assume carriers such as Aeromexico, Copa, Avianca, Air Canada, the European leisure and legacy carriers serving HAV, etc., do not face the same situation that international carriers face in Venezuela. I doubt Cuba is a point of sale for them, hence all their sales are conducted outside of Cuba in USD or at USD-referred fares. As a result, their Cuba-related income is not subject to withholding, unfavorable exchange rates, central bank red tape, etc.

readytotaxi · Fri Feb 12, 2016 12:58 pm

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 18):
Essentially, South America's equivalent to Zimbabwe

that is such a good comparison.

peterinlisbon · Fri Feb 12, 2016 1:41 pm

It's kind of ironic that, for all of their talk of socialism, the only part they were able to replicate was the long lines for basic items like toilet paper and milk. If anything, what they have done is proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that socialism doesn't work. I don't thing that there is any country in the world outside a war zone that has seen such a drastic reduction in airline service. And in this case, it is 100% due to the government's bizarre, pointless and destructive interference with exchange rates.

winGl3t · Fri Feb 12, 2016 3:15 pm

GOL is also suspending AUA, MIA and MCO, because of poor demand due to Brazilian crisis.

Rumors have it will restart flights to Peru, as Brazilian Civil Aviation Authority alocated last year 7 weekly frequencies to the airline.

hohd · Fri Feb 12, 2016 3:44 pm

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 25):

Cuban tourism is booming. At times they don't have enough hotel rooms to accommodate everyone.

And with the current US administration's policies, many US citizens and residents are also starting to travel to Cuba as it is easy to get waivers from the travel embargo now.

Venezuela can get on its feet partially once they repeal the subsidy for gasoline which is now at a ridiculous 5 to 10 cents per gallon. They also should adopt some other currency as their currency (like Zimbabwe), if they cant accept US dollar, may be Euro, Chinese Yuan or even Brazil real is good enough.

jfk777 · Fri Feb 12, 2016 3:58 pm

Quoting winGl3t (Reply 28):

GOL is also suspending AUA, MIA and MCO, because of poor demand due to Brazilian crisis.

GOL is great at being the Southwest of Brazil, but why would they put people in 737-800 for hours and hours for flights to Miami all the way from Rio and Sao Paulo. It would be one thing if they flew only from Manaus or other cities within nonstop range of Miami. Can the CASM for a 737 from GRU to Miami beat an A330 or an AA 777 ? Very questionable choices made by this management.

mham001 · Fri Feb 12, 2016 5:43 pm

Quoting par13del (Reply 24):
It is not fashionable to talk about a socialist country that is fairly well run, imagine if the embargo was not in place?

it is also not fashionable to remember that Cuba has/is receiving huge quantities of oil gratis, keeping them afloat. Notable also is that both of their main benefactors have gone broke.

And I have never understand how anybody can say an economy is healthy if it can't survive without US tourists.

[Edited 2016-02-12 09:45:03]

guyanam · Fri Feb 12, 2016 6:41 pm

Quoting mham001 (Reply 31):

What is wrong with having a tourism based economy. Look at the richest Caribbean islands, and you will see that these are the most tourism dependent.

The Bahamas being an example of this.

bennett123 · Fri Feb 12, 2016 7:07 pm

MHam001

Which country do you mean?.

readytotaxi · Fri Feb 12, 2016 7:14 pm

According to Wiki, France gets the most tourists.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Tourism_rankings

Surprised me.

Rafabozzolla · Fri Feb 12, 2016 7:37 pm

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 25):
I doubt Cuba is a point of sale for them, hence all their sales are conducted outside of Cuba in USD or at USD-referred fares. As a result, their Cuba-related income is not subject to withholding, unfavorable exchange rates, central bank red tape, etc.

With all its problems the Cuban Govt seems to undertand how important tourism is for them.

Quoting readytotaxi (Reply 34):
According to Wiki, France gets the most tourists.

Absolutely irrelevant as France´s economy is big and diversified and does not depend on tourism.

ZKCIF · Fri Feb 12, 2016 8:24 pm

A piece from my dialogue with a highly ranking official at Caracas Airport in 2009:
me: But you are violating the international law.
him: We do not care about the law.

I wonder why I haven't been to Venezuela ever since and why I have been actively discouraging people from going there.

Okie · Fri Feb 12, 2016 8:45 pm

Quoting mham001 (Reply 31):
it is also not fashionable to remember that Cuba has/is receiving huge quantities of oil gratis, keeping them afloat. Notable also is that both of their main benefactors have gone broke.

That oil gratis dropped from about 100,000bbls 2012 per day to roughly 50,000 per day 2015.
Equals $10M USD per day to $1,5M per day 2016.
It is going to take a heck of a lot of additional tourism to make up $8.5M per day.

Okie

ZKCIF · Fri Feb 12, 2016 9:06 pm

Quoting Okie (Reply 37):
It is going to take a heck of a lot of additional tourism to make up $8.5M per day.

easily doable from what I heard

Okie · Fri Feb 12, 2016 9:13 pm

Quoting ZKCIF (Reply 38):
easily doable from what I heard

Okay
Tourist drops 1K per day means 8,500 tourists per day. That would be take 50 or so 737's per day.
3-5 day trips so we will call it 4 at double occupancy 17,000 additional hotel rooms.

Not so easy as you think.

Okie

[Edited 2016-02-12 13:14:32]

[Edited 2016-02-12 13:15:23]

bjorn14 · Sat Feb 13, 2016 2:27 pm

Venezuela just told businesses to close between 1200-1400 to conserve energy. No rainfall has hurt the hydroelectric output.

bennett123 · Sat Feb 13, 2016 2:52 pm

Surely buying the extra oil will cost 1.5M not 8.5M.

Okie · Sat Feb 13, 2016 3:49 pm

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 41):
Surely buying the extra oil will cost 1.5M not 8.5M

Cuba did not even come remotely close to use all the oil that came from gratis.
They refined it and sold the refined product on the open market and used the proceeds to buy imported processed food.
Venezuela has cut the gratis. That has expedited getting US relations open so Cuba has USD to feed themselves.

Cuba is quite similar to Venezuela that government controls has wrecked a lot of the agricultural output.
When the farms grow the produce the government agencies fail to send trucks to ship it to market. Except for local distribution much just rots in the fields.
When the walls of socialism break down then someone will start a trucking company to ship goods.

Okie

mham001 · Sat Feb 13, 2016 6:26 pm

Quoting guyanam (Reply 32):

What is wrong with having a tourism based economy.

It is one disturbance away from complete catastrophe.

I find it ironic that this supposedly "well-managed" economy apparently cannot survive or thrive without the US and its tourists, given the incessant finger-pointing at the US embargo as the source of all the problems in Cuba.

lightsaber · Sat Feb 13, 2016 7:24 pm

Quoting hohd (Reply 29):
Venezuela can get on its feet partially once they repeal the subsidy for gasoline which is now at a ridiculous 5 to 10 cents per gallon. They also should adopt some other currency as their currency (like Zimbabwe), if they cant accept US dollar, may be Euro, Chinese Yuan or even Brazil real is good enough.

Venezuela will not be on its feet until price controls are lifted, land is returned to productive individuals, and the rule of law is partially returned.

Tragedy if the commons on a grand scale.

Quoting Okie (Reply 39):
Tourist drops 1K per day means 8,500 tourists per day. That would be take 50 or so 737's per day.
3-5 day trips so we will call it 4 at double occupancy 17,000 additional hotel rooms.

Plus business investment. Cuba might do it. Venezuela is about to get really bad. I wonder how far air service will drop.

Lightsaber

bjorn14 · Sat Feb 13, 2016 7:48 pm

Quoting Okie (Reply 42):

Reminds of the days of the Soviet Union when farmers were given their own little plot of land to work alongside their collective farm duties. Twenty-five percent of food produced in the country came from these little plots.

Avianca · Sun Feb 14, 2016 5:50 pm

Quoting pipeafcr (Reply 9):
Also I don't know if its any relevant or not, but Aeromexico's flights to CCS are not bookable after May 31. Not sure if the route is being cancelled or what's going on

Quoting redadeco (Reply 15):
Copa, Avianca, Aerolineas Argentinas, AA, Iberia, Lufthansa, LAN, TAP, Air Europa and most importantly... Cubana

seems that LH will cancle as well all flights to and from CCS as from Summer Schedule 2016!

dfwjim1 · Sun Feb 14, 2016 11:00 pm

Quoting Avianca (Reply 46):

I notice that Dynamic Air has been running flights between MIA/FLL and Venezuela...I wonder how they can do that and make
a profit with the current situation in that country?

guyanam · Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:39 pm

Quoting mham001 (Reply 43):

You know full well that the problems of Cuba have NOTHING to do with whether they attract US tourists or not. But for tourism Cuba would be much worse off than it currently is.

par13del · Mon Feb 15, 2016 10:11 pm

Quoting mham001 (Reply 31):
And I have never understand how anybody can say an economy is healthy if it can't survive without US tourists.

I think you mean non-US tourist, the bulk of Cuba tourist are from Canada and Europe, the embargo ensures that whatever Cuba has today or how poorly or well run they are, it is not because of the USA.

My point was that in spite of the US embargo, you cannot compare Cuba's economy to what is taking place in Venezuela today, hence my comment that Cuba as a communist country is better run than Venezuela.

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