commavia
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U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Fri Feb 12, 2016 10:16 pm

As now being reported by multiple news outlets, the new U.S.-Cuba bilateral agreed to in December, which permits up to 110 daily flights by U.S. carriers, will be signed this week, and the DOT application period for interested U.S. airlines will start as soon as Tuesday:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/12/politics/u-s-to-restore-commercial-flights-to-cuba/

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-cuba-usa-aviation-idUSKCN0VL2HW

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/us-cuba-commercial-flights-219211

There was extensive speculation back in December on which airlines might apply, and for which routes and at what frequencies. It appears as though the wait is almost over to see which airlines actually apply for what ...
 
anstar
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Fri Feb 12, 2016 10:48 pm

110 daily flights or 110 weekly flights (15 flights per day)?

110 daily flights seems like way to much capacity.
 
texan
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Fri Feb 12, 2016 10:58 pm

Looks like it is daily: 20 daily to HAV and 10 daily to each of 9 other airports.

Texan
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flyby519
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Fri Feb 12, 2016 11:09 pm

Anyone know what the other 9 airports are?
 
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mercure1
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Fri Feb 12, 2016 11:11 pm

According to Spanish aviation media says the agreement would need to be ratified by Cuban parliament. So it still me be a many weeks/months before flight approvals could be possible.
mercure f-wtcc
 
BigGSFO
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Fri Feb 12, 2016 11:19 pm

As expected, AA, DL, B6 will probably be the most aggressive in getting as many slots as possible. I would expect the gateways of Miami, Fort Lauderdale, New York/Newark and Los Angeles to be the US airports with the most daily flights, followed by fortress hubs of Atlanta, Dallas and Houston. 110 daily flights seems like a lot given the US-Cuba market will need time to develop, outside South Florida of course. Exciting times indeed!
 
Okie
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Fri Feb 12, 2016 11:38 pm

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 5):
110 daily flights seems like a lot given the US-Cuba market will need time to develop, outside South Florida of course. Exciting times indeed

No indication of plane size/seat count. That would be a pretty wide difference in capacity between a CRJ and a Wide Body.
Also no indication that if you do not use your slot you lose your slot or if you have to get approval to up or down gauge.
Not many details really.

Okie
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Fri Feb 12, 2016 11:46 pm

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 5):
As expected, AA, DL, B6 will probably be the most aggressive in getting as many slots as possible.

Have a hard time believing that NK and UA won't fight tooth&nail to get in on that, with MFW and NYC hubs respectively...

Wouldn't be surprised to see WN go for the gusto either.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
MIflyer12
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 12:17 am

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 5):
As expected, AA, DL, B6 will probably be the most aggressive in getting as many slots as possible.

'As many as possible' means lots of flights to the nine airports other than Havana. I wouldn't expect anybody other than AA to try that.
 
MAH4546
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 12:29 am

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 4):
According to Spanish aviation media says the agreement would need to be ratified by Cuban parliament. So it still me be a many weeks/months before flight approvals could be possible.

That will not hinder U.S. DOT from beginning it's selection process next week. Cuba has no involvement in that aspect.
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Flaps
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 12:32 am

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 8):
'As many as possible' means lots of flights to the nine airports other than Havana. I wouldn't expect anybody other than AA to try that.

NK would as would 3M (assuming 3M could finance the startups). B6 possibly as well given their extensive South Florida and New York presence.
 
Prost
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 12:35 am

It seems like Cuba is selling their own airlines down the river. 110 flights/day is a lot of capacity, but those planes will be bringing in tourist dollars, so I guess it makes sense.
 
Byrdluvs747
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 12:37 am

Is there a frequency limitation on charters? I wonder if AA could up the frequency on their LAX-HAV charter to something like 4x weekly to come close to a regular schedule.

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 4):

According to Spanish aviation media says the agreement would need to be ratified by Cuban parliament. So it still me be a many weeks/months before flight approvals could be possible.

Considering the Cuban parliament rubber stamped the normalization, I wouldn't bet on any delays.

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 5):

As expected, AA, DL, B6 will probably be the most aggressive in getting as many slots as possible.

The problem for B6 is that AA and DL can use widebody aircraft and thus carry more pax per frequency.
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STT757
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 12:51 am

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 5):


As expected, AA, DL, B6 will probably be the most aggressive in getting as many slots as possible.

States with the largest Cuban populations:

1. Florida 1.2 Million
2. California 88, 000
3. New Jersey 83, 000
4. New York 70,000
5. Texas 46,000
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toltommy
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:51 am

Quoting Prost (Reply 11):
It seems like Cuba is selling their own airlines down the river. 110 flights/day is a lot of capacity, but those planes will be bringing in tourist dollars, so I guess it makes sense.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-cub...greement-restarting-212343570.html

"The deal does not contemplate flights by Cuba's national airline to the United States, where lawyers for families and businesses that have sued Havana over decades-old property confiscations are eager to freeze any of its assets that they can get their hands on."

Looks like we won't be seeing Cubana in the States just yet....
A300/A310/A319/A320/A321/A332/A333 / 707/712/727/732/733/734/735/738/739/752/753
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MAH4546
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 2:34 am

Quoting toltommy (Reply 14):

"The deal does not contemplate flights by Cuba's national airline to the United States, where lawyers for families and businesses that have sued Havana over decades-old property confiscations are eager to freeze any of its assets that they can get their hands on."

Looks like we won't be seeing Cubana in the States just yet....

U.S. flights, like flights to Canada, can be operated by Avion Express. You can't seize an Avion Express plane.
a.
 
threeifbyair
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 2:43 am

I think we'll see all 20 HAV authorities get picked up. The rest of the cities will probably get some interest from AA for sure, and perhaps others, but realistically I don't think they will get close to 10x daily individually.

Most of the US airlines will want something, and I expect USDOT will want to make as many airlines get a piece of the action as possible.

AA is going to make a huge run at the. I could see AA asking for 12-15 HAV authorities given the MIA strength.

DL is less well-positioned geographically, but ATL and JFK would be logical.

UA also struggles with geography, but serving EWR, IAH, and ORD would be reasonable.

WN, B6, and NK will all go after Florida routes. WN may also want HOU or BWI. JFK for B6 as well.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 13):
States with the largest Cuban populations:

1. Florida 1.2 Million
2. California 88, 000
3. New Jersey 83, 000
4. New York 70,000
5. Texas 46,000

And on the metro area level:

1. Miami-Fort Lauderdale: 983,000
2. New York-New Jersey: 136,000
3. Tampa: 82,000
4. Los Angeles: 50,000
5. Orlando: 37,000
6. Chicago: 21,000
7. Las Vegas: 21,000
8. Houston: 19,000
9. Atlanta: 18,000
10. Washington DC: 15,000
 
toltommy
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 5:42 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 15):
U.S. flights, like flights to Canada, can be operated by Avion Express. You can't seize an Avion Express plane.

Good point, thanks for observing what the media didn't. But lets face it, the overwhelming majority of ticket buyers will be US based, even if they are part of the Cuban diaspora. They'll look to US carriers first.
A300/A310/A319/A320/A321/A332/A333 / 707/712/727/732/733/734/735/738/739/752/753
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crAAzy
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 6:12 am

CUBA'S 10 INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS:

HAVANA – HAV / MUHA – Jose Marti Airport
VARADERO – VRA / MUVR – Juan Gualberto Gomez Airport
HOLGUIN – HOG / MUHG – Frank Pais Airport
SANTA CLARA – SNU / MUSC – Abel Santamaria Airport
CAYO COCO – CCC / MUCC – Jardines del Rey Airport
CAYO LARGO DEL SUR – CYO / MUCL – Vilo Acuna Airport
CAMAGUEY – CMW / MUCM – Ignacio Agramonte Airport
CIENFUEGOS – CFG / MUCF – Jaime Gonzales Airport
SANTIAGO DE CUBA – SCU / MUCU – Antonio Macoa Airport
MANZANILLO DE CUBA – MZO / MUMZ – Sierra Maestra Airport

Nice little map too:
http://www.mapsofworld.com/internati...l-airports/north-america/cuba.html

[Edited 2016-02-12 22:18:01]
 
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mariner
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 6:20 am

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 16):
WN, B6, and NK will all go after Florida routes. WN may also want HOU or BWI. JFK for B6 as well.

Obviously, I think it's possible Frontier might apply for a couple, from MIA perhaps.  

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kngkyle
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 6:24 am

This will be very interesting to watch unfold. I feel like 20 Havana flights is a bit below the market potential, especially with it being split between AA, DL, UA, WN, B6, F9, NK, VX, and potentially AS. I suspect we'll see some 767s here.

AA will probably serve all 10 Cuban airports as well.

[Edited 2016-02-12 22:28:20]
 
Byrdluvs747
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 6:29 am

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 16):
AA is going to make a huge run at the. I could see AA asking for 12-15 HAV authorities given the MIA strength.

That's very extreme. If the DOT was looking solely at Cuban demographics in the US, I would agree that AA would get a healthy amount. However, as the Transportation Secretary says in the beginning of this video, the distribution of authorities won't be based on region or carrier. It looks like they're trying to spread the wealth.

U.S. to restore commercial flights to Cuba

Personally, I don't think his egalitarian outlook will work until the eligibility of passengers isn't limited to a tiny sliver of the US population.
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EA CO AS
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 6:48 am

Quoting Kngkyle (Reply 20):
potentially AS.

  

AS definitely sees opportunities in serving Cuba, and is very interested in securing some of the initial service.
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32andBelow
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 7:00 am

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 22):
AS definitely sees opportunities in serving Cuba, and is very interested in securing some of the initial service.

Interesting. Via LAX, SEA, PDX, or the southeast somewhere?
 
airliner371
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 7:31 am

WN actually has a lot of opportunity with this. While I don't expect them to go crazy with their application, they will probably apply for two or three of these cities: HOU, MDW, BWI, TPA, MCO, FLL. I'd say of those, HOU and BWI are the two most likely to be applied for by WN and maybe they'll choose one other.
 
bjorn14
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 8:49 am

I think the intial problem from the Cuban side is how many convertible pesos are they willing to let there citizens use. It will probably be like VE were the diaspora in the US buys VFR tickets.
"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
 
Byrdluvs747
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 9:29 am

Quoting 32andBelow (Reply 23):
Interesting. Via LAX, SEA, PDX, or the southeast somewhere?

How much eligible traffic can there be from SEA or PDX?
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commavia
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:08 am

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 21):
If the DOT was looking solely at Cuban demographics in the US, I would agree that AA would get a healthy amount. However, as the Transportation Secretary says in the beginning of this video, the distribution of authorities won't be based on region or carrier. It looks like they're trying to spread the wealth.

U.S. to restore commercial flights to Cuba

Personally, I don't think his egalitarian outlook will work until the eligibility of passengers isn't limited to a tiny sliver of the US population.

Agree. The "egalitarian," "spread-the-wealth" approach seems highly inefficient to me. If these precious authorities are allocated based on the natural hub structures and how it fits the natural traffic flows in this market, these authorities would likely go almost entirely to just 2-3 airlines. Personally, I've long been of the opinion that, under circumstances where the market is leftly largely to its own devices, the two U.S. airlines that ought to naturally dominate this market are obviously AA first and foremost, and then JetBlue. Everyone else should be way, way back in the pack just given the hub structures.
 
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RayChuang
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:20 am

In my humble opinion, the airlines that will likely go most aggressively after the Cuban market will be AA and B6. With good reason: the large Latino community in southeastern Florida (the Cuban exiles and their descendants especially). And both AA and B6 already have a large presence in that part of Florida.
 
bjorn14
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:26 am

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 26):

I don't think this is about eligible traffic anymore. You don't have to have any ties to Cuba as you did with the charters. Any Joe can party in VRA or CCC.
"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
 
commavia
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:28 am

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 28):
In my humble opinion, the airlines that will likely go most aggressively after the Cuban market will be AA and B6. With good reason: the large Latino community in southeastern Florida (the Cuban exiles and their descendants especially). And both AA and B6 already have a large presence in that part of Florida.

That's the reason AA and JetBlue should receive most of the available frequencies - it's just logical, given that those two are so strong in the markets where most of the demand is likely to originate (Florida and NYC). Unfortunately, I suspect that plenty of airlines will be plenty "aggressive" with requesting authorities, and depending on how "fair" (as opposed to logical) the DOT wants to be, a suboptimally efficient allocation may result.

I would personally submit that the allocation of the 20 available HAV frequencies should be split 5-6 for MIA, 5-6 for FLL, 2-3 for the rest of Florida, 2-3 for JFK/EWR, and then the remainder for the entire rest of the U.S.
 
Byrdluvs747
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 11:05 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 30):
of the 20 available HAV frequencies should be split 5-6 for MIA, 5-6 for FLL

Considering the higher population of Cubans in MIA over FLL, I would slice it a little different. 6-8 for MIA, and 2-3 for FLL.

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 29):
I don't think this is about eligible traffic anymore. You don't have to have any ties to Cuba as you did with the charters. Any Joe can party in VRA or CCC.

This agreement has nothing to do with the financial embargo. That can only be undone by congress. All US citizens still need to qualify to travel to Cuba.

Quoting commavia (Reply 30):
a suboptimally efficient allocation may result.

Exactly. The current need to qualify for Cuban travel means all these carriers will be depending heavily on VFR traffic.
The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
 
bjorn14
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 12:47 pm

Besides HAV. I think VRA/CCC/CYO and maybe SCU will see a lot of slot requests.
"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
 
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anfromme
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:00 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 30):
I would personally submit that the allocation of the 20 available HAV frequencies should be split 5-6 for MIA, 5-6 for FLL, 2-3 for the rest of Florida, 2-3 for JFK/EWR, and then the remainder for the entire rest of the U.S.

So you expect Florida's Cuban community of ~1.5m to support 12-15 daily (!) flights into Cuba's main aiport alone, with the rest of the entire US getting 5-8 flights into HAV?
I don't think that's realistic.
Neither do I agree with the notion that the distribution of flights should chiefly support AA's and B6's existing structure.
Sure - MIA should see more flights than, say, ANC, but a fair share should also go to other hubs than AA's and B6's, with a view to strengthening competition and also enabling tourist traffic (DL could for instance offer connections from Europe via the US to Cuba) - which has a much bigger growth potential than "just" tapping in on the Cuban communities in the US. A lot of them will surely enjoy being able to travel to Cuba a bit more easily, but they won't be what's going to drive US-Cuban traffic five years from now. And with that in mind, traffic rights shouldn't chiefly be assigned based on which airlines have the biggest presence already in places where there are large Cuban communities. (Mind you, those airlines already have the big advantage of having those very communities to help them get their new connections off the ground. Other airlines will have to work a bit harder to establish their customer base for these flights.)

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 31):
All US citizens still need to qualify to travel to Cuba.

I would expect airlines to push havily to have this limitation either removed or qualification made way easier.
42
 
Byrdluvs747
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:12 pm

Quoting anfromme (Reply 33):
(DL could for instance offer connections from Europe via the US to Cuba)

With the US security requirements, there is no market for EU-ATL-HAV when there are EU carriers flying to HAV nonstop.
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ualcsr
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:28 pm

Quoting anfromme (Reply 33):
So you expect Florida's Cuban community of ~1.5m to support 12-15 daily (!) flights into Cuba's main aiport alone, with the rest of the entire US getting 5-8 flights into HAV?
I don't think that's realistic.

At least at the beginning, it's totally realistic and the only feasible scenario. While there has always been a flow of Cuban exiles/migrants into the US since 1959, you can really break it down into three groups: those who came right after the revolution, the "Marielitos" in 1980 and those who have come and continue to come in the past 10-15 years. As travel to Cuba for Americans will initially be largely VFR due to the lack of infrastructure to handle large volumes of Americans, it is this last group, the ones who came in the past 10-15 years, that have the most ties to Cuba, having left last. Where are most of the Cubans? South Florida. Tampa too; not nearly as much as Miami, but enough to support at least a daily flight, if not two.

Cuba has the infrastructure to accommodate the tourists it gets now, but not the large number of Americans that you would see going to say, the Bahamas or Jamaica. It will get there, but it will take time.
 
commavia
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:29 pm

Quoting anfromme (Reply 33):
So you expect Florida's Cuban community of ~1.5m to support 12-15 daily (!) flights into Cuba's main aiport alone, with the rest of the entire US getting 5-8 flights into HAV?
I don't think that's realistic.

Yes, that is what I expect - in so much as I'd say that Florida has a better chance of supporting most of the flights to Cuba than the entire rest of the U.S. has any plausible chance of supporting anywhere near as many flights.

Given that more than two thirds of the Cuban diaspora in the U.S. is concentrated in Florida alone, and that just three states - Florida, New York and New Jersey - account for more than three quarters of this community, I don't think it's at all unreasonable or illogical that these three states would account for an approximately equivalent share of the nonstop flights into HAV (and an even greater majority of flights to the rest of Cuba).

Quoting anfromme (Reply 33):
Neither do I agree with the notion that the distribution of flights should chiefly support AA's and B6's existing structure.

Well seeing as AA and JetBlue are the two airlines whose networks are most closely aligned with where the vast majority of O&D to/from Cuba is likely to be generated, I don't see why this would be controversial.

Quoting anfromme (Reply 33):
with a view to strengthening competition and also enabling tourist traffic (DL could for instance offer connections from Europe via the US to Cuba) - which has a much bigger growth potential than "just" tapping in on the Cuban communities in the US.

I disagree. The goal shouldn't be to "strengthen competition." It should be to maximize benefits to the U.S. traveling public - and in my opinion, that is best served by facilitating as much connectivity as possible from the places it's needed most, and that's Florida (MIA/FLL/TPA/MCO) and NYC metro (JFK/EWR). Additionally, I think it's highly unrealistic that U.S. carriers will be catering in any major way to connections from Europe, given that many of these flights are likely to be scheduled similar to other Caribbean destinations with late morning southbound and afternoon northbound departures suboptimal for 2-way connectivity to/from Europe, and particularly given that there is already plenty of nonstop capacity from Europe to Cuba.

I continue to believe the the maximum benefit to the U.S. traveling public is served by the vast majority of flights to HAV coming from those six airports, something like:

AA / MIA / 4
AA / JFK / 1
B6 / FLL / 2
B6 / JFK / 2
B6 / TPA / 1
DL / ATL / 1
DL / JFK / 1
NK / FLL / 2
UA / IAH / 1
UA / EWR / 1
WN / BWI / 1
WN / FLL / 1
WN / HOU / 1
WN / MCO / 1

Broken down by airline:

AA / 5
B6 / 5
WN / 4
DL / 2
NK / 2
UA / 2

And by state/region:

South Florida / 9
Rest of Florida / 2
NYC Metro / 5
Rest of U.S. / 4

And, again, I'd expect that any scheduled routes added to Cuban cities other than HAV would be even more concentrated on South Florida than the above.

Quoting anfromme (Reply 33):
I would expect airlines to push havily to have this limitation either removed or qualification made way easier.

I expect the same. I also expect it will have little effect. There is just as much push in the other direction to maintain sanctions. I think broader economic liberalization will happen in time - but it will, indeed, take time.

[Edited 2016-02-13 05:34:32]
 
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RayChuang
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 2:15 pm

Here's something even more interesting: what kind of planes will AA use on its MIA-HAV route? My guess: AA 737-800's and ex-US Airways A320's, with some 757-200's during peak periods. If AA had not retired their A300B4-600R fleet, they probably could have flown the A306 on this route at least once a day.
 
brahmin
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 2:17 pm

Will the US airlines become like the ME3 for the Cuban flights?
 
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STT757
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RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 2:31 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 36):
AA / MIA / 4
AA / JFK / 1
B6 / FLL / 2
B6 / JFK / 2
B6 / TPA / 1
DL / ATL / 1
DL / JFK / 1
NK / FLL / 2
UA / IAH / 1
UA / EWR / 1
WN / BWI / 1
WN / FLL / 1
WN / HOU / 1
WN / MCO / 1

You list 4x as many flights from JFK-HAV as from EWR-HAV, yet as I pointed out the majority of the Cuban population in the region is in New Jersey. That level of service from JFK would depend heavily on folks from Union City and West New York New Jersey being willing to drive through Manhattan and across Queens paying $15 - $30 in tolls and dealing with the traffic on the GWB or Lincoln tunnel when they could be at EWR in 15 minutes.

Havana on the Hudson:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Havana_on_the_Hudson

Jetblue flies to both San Juan Puerto Rico and Santiago Dominican Republic from EWR, I would think if they fly those routes they would also be interested in EWR-Havana, especially as I mentioned the majority of the Cuban Americans in the region reside in New Jersey. Not saying they would choose EWR over JFK, but I would see them serving both as they do with the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico.


Also there's nothing listed for California, which has the second largest Cuban population after Florida.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
mtnwest1979
Posts: 2211
Joined: Fri Nov 18, 2005 4:23 am

RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 3:30 pm

DL should try a DTW HAV route, just for the auto execs to get Cuba ready for 21st century autos.  
Riddle: Which lasts longer, a start-up airline or a start-up football league?
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5501
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 3:41 pm

That is a very odd division between HAV (20) VS the rest of the country (90)

I wonder if HAV will end up with wide-bodies, at least AA on MIA-HAV. And whether VRO could be used as a "back door" to Havana.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 6465
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 4:06 pm

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 28):
In my humble opinion, the airlines that will likely go most aggressively after the Cuban market will be AA and B6. With good reason: the large Latino community in southeastern Florida (the Cuban exiles and their descendants especially). And both AA and B6 already have a large presence in that part of Florida.
Quoting commavia (Reply 36):
Well seeing as AA and JetBlue are the two airlines whose networks are most closely aligned with where the vast majority of O&D to/from Cuba is likely to be generated, I don't see why this would be controversial.

I don't feel the love for B6 as the #4 carrier by passenger count in NYC and a distant #2 in south Florida. B6's seat count won't rival AA's to Cuba.
 
threeifbyair
Posts: 939
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2007 1:44 pm

RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 4:30 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 36):
I continue to believe the the maximum benefit to the U.S. traveling public is served by the vast majority of flights to HAV coming from those six airports, something like:

AA / MIA / 4
AA / JFK / 1
B6 / FLL / 2
B6 / JFK / 2
B6 / TPA / 1
DL / ATL / 1
DL / JFK / 1
NK / FLL / 2
UA / IAH / 1
UA / EWR / 1
WN / BWI / 1
WN / FLL / 1
WN / HOU / 1
WN / MCO / 1

Broken down by airline:

AA / 5
B6 / 5
WN / 4
DL / 2
NK / 2
UA / 2

And by state/region:

South Florida / 9
Rest of Florida / 2
NYC Metro / 5
Rest of U.S. / 4

Pretty close to my guesses. I think less JFK service is possible - it is an inefficient connecting point for much of the US, and the local O&D seems to be more on the Jersey side.

Before we get too negative on the heavy Florida service, it is a very efficient connecting point for basically all of the US. Like SEA for the State of Alaska and LAX for Hawaii. I suspect EA and SY will continue running charters ex-MIA as well, so perhaps that helps to satisfy some of the demand.

Almost every major metro area in the US that doesn't get a nonstop would have 1-stop service to HAV on 2-5 carriers.
 
flyby519
Posts: 1487
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:31 am

RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 4:31 pm

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 42):

I don't feel the love for B6 as the #4 carrier by passenger count in NYC and a distant #2 in south Florida. B6's seat count won't rival AA's to Cuba.

This is about political connections. I'll wager AA gets the largest chunk, and B6 gets a slightly smaller chunk of Cuba flying. It won't be a drastic difference.
 
commavia
Topic Author
Posts: 11489
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 4:46 pm

Quoting flyby519 (Reply 44):
I'll wager AA gets the largest chunk, and B6 gets a slightly smaller chunk of Cuba flying. It won't be a drastic difference.

For HAV, I agree - again, if the objective here is to maximize the benefit for U.S. consumers, AA ought to naturally get the largest single share of the frequencies with JetBlue also getting a substantial amount.

Beyond HAV, though, I would personally guess that the frequencies are going to be more heavily weighted towards AA and MIA just given what a large concentration of all U.S.-Cuba O&D is likely to emanate from South Florida, and Dade in particular (even compared to Broward).

What I will also be interested to see is if any other carriers besides AA apply for MIA-HAV. Again, if going purely based on network structure and connectivity, AA should naturally dominate MIA-Cuba. However, if the DOT's goal is to "spread the wealth," it will be very interesting to see how what is inevitably going to be the largest single U.S.-Cuba city pair develops.
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5501
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 5:03 pm

I think an UA service from IAD and a B6 service from BOS could work. Also no ORD service? That is why I think 20 daily flights to HAV is so little. I would see first any of those cities before IAH.

I think you are focusing heavily on VFR, but an "open" Cuba would attract businesses and tourists alike. DC and Boston are two cities with quite an "internationally-minded" crowd that likes to travel internationally frequently. Also DC has diplomatic and Boston education ties that would increase with improved relations with Cuba.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 25935
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 8:54 pm

I expect that airlines won't limit asking for hubs. DL probably will be better off flying HAV from Miami than Atlanta and I expect it will apply for both. I also expect AA will want to serve Cuba from Tampa and maybe Ft. Laudedale.
a.
 
Abeam79
Posts: 313
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:16 am

RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 9:06 pm

I suspect B6 will get a big slew of it. They are very bullish on Cuba, and plan to do there similar to what they did in the D.R. To which they are the largest carrier in the DR. They have half of their focus cities on the east coast with large Cuban population. They lobbied hard with certain people in government and did a "special envoy charter flight" with gov Cuomo and JetBlue management to Havana just before they started the jfk-hav charter. Essentially setting up the ground work to be the premier carrier between US and Cuba.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 25935
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: U.S.-Cuba: Applications Start Tuesday

Sat Feb 13, 2016 9:21 pm

Quoting Abeam79 (Reply 48):
suspect B6 will get a big slew of it. They are very bullish on Cuba, and plan to do there similar to what they did in the D.R. To which they are the largest carrier in the DR. They have half of their focus cities on the east coast with large Cuban population. They lobbied hard with certain people in government and did a "special envoy charter flight" with gov Cuomo and JetBlue management to Havana just before they started the jfk-hav charter. Essentially setting up the ground work to be the premier carrier between US and Cuba.

Unless B6 wants to star operating from Miami to Cuba, not going to happen.
a.

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