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KarelXWB
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 3:05 pm

We may see another aircraft launch later this year:

Quote:
Airbus Group SE expects to soon decide on whether to build a bigger variant of its A350

...

"We will have a decision this year. Ask us at the Farnborough Airshow," John Leahy, chief operating officer, customers, told The Wall Street Journal in an interview in Singapore.

Mr. Leahy said if Airbus decides to build the new variant, it will be more efficient than the Boeing 777-9X

...

Source
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/airbus...ebody-jet-this-year-20160216-00407
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Stitch
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 3:28 pm

Part of me thinks that unless Boeing secures another couple hundred 777-9 orders by - or at - Farnborough, I don't really see a need for Airbus to offer an "A350-1100" that is similar in capacity to the 777-9.

On the flip side, while 10-abreast on the 777-300ER is widely derided on airliners.net for it's lack of comfort, more and more operators are moving to it, including possibly "prestige" carriers like CX and SQ.

While a 9-abreast A350-1000's trip fuel burn is upwards of 20% lower than a 10-abreast 777-300ER, the per-seat fuel burn is closer to a bit better than half that (at least based on what Emirates has been saying). Considering what Boeing is claiming for the 10-abreast 777-9 on a per-seat basis compared to the 10-abreast 777-300ER, the A350-1000's advantage on a per-seat basis may be little to none (it will still have a trip fuel burn advantage due to the much lower operating weights).

Cathay Pacific has arguably split their 777-300ER replacement between the A350-1000 and 777-9, while Singapore has yet to make a decision. It is possible Airbus could be worried that Singapore could go with the 777-9 over the A350-1000 if SQ decides to retrofit their current 777-300ERs at 10-abreast, as well as other large 10-abreast 777-300ER operators could favor the 777-9, as well.
 
jfk777
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 4:03 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):

Part of me thinks that unless Boeing secures another couple hundred 777-9 orders by - or at - Farnborough, I don't really see a need for Airbus to offer an "A350-1100" that is similar in capacity to the 777-9.

On the flip side, while 10-abreast on the 777-300ER is widely derided on airliners.net for it's lack of comfort, more and more operators are moving to it, including possibly "prestige" carriers like CX and SQ.

While a 9-abreast A350-1000's trip fuel burn is upwards of 20% lower than a 10-abreast 777-300ER, the per-seat fuel burn is closer to a bit better than half that (at least based on what Emirates has been saying). Considering what Boeing is claiming for the 10-abreast 777-9 on a per-seat basis compared to the 10-abreast 777-300ER, the A350-1000's advantage on a per-seat basis may be little to none (it will still have a trip fuel burn advantage due to the much lower operating weights).

Cathay Pacific has arguably split their 777-300ER replacement between the A350-1000 and 777-9, while Singapore has yet to make a decision. It is possible Airbus could be worried that Singapore could go with the 777-9 over the A350-1000 if SQ decides to retrofit their current 777-300ER's at 10-abreast, as well as other large 10-abreast 777-300ER operators could favor the 777-9, as well.

Sales of the 777-9 certainly have been slower then Boeing has probably anticipated in number of airlines but not in the number of actual orders, ME3 ordered a ridiculous number like 200. Lufthansa has 34 777-9 plus Cathay about 20 and ANA another 20 or so. Many other airlines will order them, may 77W operators still have very young and large -300ER fleets, Air France. Other, BA, are late to the 77W program. Then there are those who could look to the 777-9 as an A380 replacement, Qantas could be one of those.

The 777-9 program has a while to go and many airlines are just starting their 77W operation, three come to Mind: SWISS, China Eastern and China Southern are just taking deliveries of their 777-300ER now. 250 777-9 in Europe and 500 in the Far East are not out of the question. In North America the 77W fleets are quite young but in 2025 United, AA, Air Canada and Delta will have them or waiting for deliveries. Then there is the rest of the world in Africa and Latin America which are probably bigger 787 operators then 777 but I could see 50 777-9 spread across those regions. SAA, LATAM and Ethiopian could be 777 flyers.
 
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Richard28
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 4:21 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
Part of me thinks that unless Boeing secures another couple hundred 777-9 orders by - or at - Farnborough, I don't really see a need for Airbus to offer an "A350-1100" that is similar in capacity to the 777-9.
Quoting jfk777 (Reply 2):
Sales of the 777-9 certainly have been slower then Boeing has probably anticipated in number of airlines but not in the number of actual orders,

I cant help that think that the possibility of a larger A350 being launched by airbus has affected demand for the 777-9.

Would not be surprised if some carriers are waiting for airbus to show their hand before making a decision one way or the other....
 
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EPA001
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 4:23 pm

Quoting Richard28 (Reply 3):
I cant help that think that the possibility of a larger A350 being launched by airbus has affected demand for the 777-9.

Maybe, but let's wait what kind of decision Airbus will make. But if they are already in confidential talks with possible customers you might be right. It will be very interesting to follow this possible development for sure.
 
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zkojq
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 4:33 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
On the flip side, while 10-abreast on the 777-300ER is widely derided on airliners.net for it's lack of comfort, more and more operators are moving to it, including possibly "prestige" carriers like CX and SQ.

What concrete indications have we actually had that SQ is moving in that direction??  
Quoting jfk777 (Reply 2):
250 777-9 in Europe and 500 in the Far East are not out of the question.

250 in Europe seems a bit unrealistic. I can certainly see AF/KL acquiring them one day, but not more than 90 in total. LH has 34 on order, but let's call that 40, under the assumption that they excercise a few options. That gives a total of 130 aircraft for Europe and I don't really think that there are many other customers that would order it. Even if you add in an order of 40 or so from TK and 10 for LX, the total is still well short of the 250 mark.

Quoting Richard28 (Reply 3):
I cant help that think that the possibility of a larger A350 being launched by airbus has affected demand for the 777-9.

Quite possibly.
First to fly the 787-9
 
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rotating14
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 4:41 pm

Quoting Richard28 (Reply 3):
I cant help that think that the possibility of a larger A350 being launched by airbus has affected demand for the 777-9.

Would not be surprised if some carriers are waiting for airbus to show their hand before making a decision one way or the other....

A couple of things.(1) The introduction of a plane like what is being discussed would need to beat the 779 by a wide margin. (2) The plane would need to not hinder the sales prospects of the A380 from above and the A35K from below. (3) Time would be a major factor. How soon could A bring to market a plane like this while in the midst of a A350 ramp up? My guess is that they'll continue to refine the A35K.
 
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KarelXWB
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 4:47 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
Part of me thinks that unless Boeing secures another couple hundred 777-9 orders by - or at - Farnborough, I don't really see a need for Airbus to offer an "A350-1100" that is similar in capacity to the 777-9.

I also don't see the need for a larger A350, especially not when the largest lessor believes anything above A350-1000 (and thus 777-300ER) is a small market.

AerCap On Widebody Market (by KarelXWB Feb 16 2016 in Civil Aviation)

[Edited 2016-02-16 08:48:22]
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seahawk
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 4:49 pm

The interesting question is what this means for the A380..
 
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scbriml
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 4:55 pm

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 6):
The introduction of a plane like what is being discussed would need to beat the 779 by a wide margin.

Not at all. An A350-1100 wouldn't need to beat the 779 in order to gain sales.   

If an airline has already ordered A350s and needs a larger plane, then an A350-1100 would be very attractive to them compared to the 779, even if the economics are about the same.
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Stitch
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 5:01 pm

Quoting ZKOJQ (Reply 5):
What concrete indications have we actually had that SQ is moving in that direction??    

None at the moment, but if CX does indeed go 10-abreast (as CAPA suggests they are considering), most of SQ's competition will be at 10-abreast with better operating economics because of it and SQ may have no choice but to respond, as well.
 
tortugamon
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 5:01 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 9):
If an airline has already ordered A350s and needs a larger plane, then an A350-1100 would be very attractive to them compared to the 779, even if the economics are about the same.

I wonder how many A350 operators who are in the market for a ~400-seat aircraft, don't also operate 777s/787s...

tortugamon
 
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MrHMSH
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 5:19 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):

On the flip side, while 10-abreast on the 777-300ER is widely derided on airliners.net for it's lack of comfort, more and more operators are moving to it, including possibly "prestige" carriers like CX and SQ.

I don't think in this climate it's going to mean much, it may mean a loss of face and prestige, but only marginally if at all, and they'd simply not make a big deal out of it. If that's the alternative to installing 9 abreast (extremely unlikely on the 779) and suffering in terms of economic competitiveness I don't see any other way, CX and SQ will/would go 10 abreast.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
Cathay Pacific has arguably split their 777-300ER replacement between the A350-1000 and 777-9, while Singapore has yet to make a decision. It is possible Airbus could be worried that Singapore could go with the 777-9 over the A350-1000 if SQ decides to retrofit their current 777-300ERs at 10-abreast, as well as other large 10-abreast 777-300ER operators could favor the 777-9, as well.

I'm not sure an A350-1100 can compete directly with the 779 on some of their routes, they use their 77Ws for 'regional' flights where the A350-1100 would be very competitive, but also on longer routes where the 779's payload-range will likely be the better option. That said, if they're happy with 9 abreast 77Ws and with A350s already incoming in large numbers I would put that as the favourite for this particular replacement, but maybe the 779 will come into its own as a long term A380 replacement?

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 11):
I wonder how many A350 operators who are in the market for a ~400-seat aircraft, don't also operate 777s/787s...

I can't see any operators in that situation, maybe, maybe IB, but probably not. To me it looks like most A350 customers are either not going above A359-size, or if they are they already have 777s or 787s, excluding LH who simply don't have 777s yet.
 
tortugamon
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 5:24 pm

Quoting MrHMSH (Reply 12):
excluding LH who simply don't have 777s yet.

Technically incorrect. 77F.   And if we are talking about LH-Parent Company we have LX operating the 77W.

tortugamon
 
rbrunner
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 5:41 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 8):
The interesting question is what this means for the A380..

Exactly that: It's a small market, but according to John Leahy, destined to grow. Let us just wait and see. I just read something about $75m for a pair of slots at LHR. Makes you stop and think, right?  
 
olle
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 5:53 pm

So what can we assume regarding A350-11 vs B779?

Weight, CASM etc?

If the A350-11 can handle let say 95% of the passengers of a B779 fly 90% the distance,

what CASM will it have?

Do we need to wait until the summer for details or can we assume some numbers?
 
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MrHMSH
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 5:54 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 13):
Technically incorrect. 77F. And if we are talking about LH-Parent Company we have LX operating the 77W.

Technicalities! Although I think you'd agree that LX's widebody operation is different to LH's: No A380s or 747s!
 
TP313
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 6:06 pm

Quoting olle (Reply 15):
So what can we assume regarding A350-11 vs B779?

Weight, CASM etc?

If the A350-11 can handle let say 95% of the passengers of a B779 fly 90% the distance,

what CASM will it have?

Do we need to wait until the summer for details or can we assume some numbers?

This is just my opinion, but it should be something like this:

nr. seats (3-class): arround 390

MTOW: somewhere between 325 and 330 T

range (with 390 pax): 7800 nm

So it would be something like a composite equivalent to the 77W with 10-across Y seating.

P.S.: would just like to add that if the current 350-1000 wing is kept, these numbers would require a 105 klb engine,
which doesn't exist yet...




[Edited 2016-02-16 10:07:48]

[Edited 2016-02-16 10:11:24]

[Edited 2016-02-16 10:12:40]
 
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TheRedBaron
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 6:17 pm

I dont think they will go for a newer bigger a350, if anything Boeing has that niche, and they better use that money to make a better A380, then again Airbus has produced aircraft that in the end sell very poorly because they cater to a very select market.

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PlanesNTrains
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 6:21 pm

Quoting rbrunner (Reply 14):
I just read something about $75m for a pair of slots at LHR. Makes you stop and think, right?  

Not sure what the eye-rolling was for, but I think the point you make is a good one. When you start spending this much money for more slots, could you better spend that money on a bigger aircraft instead?

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Andy33
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 6:43 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 19):
Not sure what the eye-rolling was for, but I think the point you make is a good one. When you start spending this much money for more slots, could you better spend that money on a bigger aircraft instead?

Oman Air have a departure bank from Muscat around 01:00 local. The slot they have bought allows them to add LHR to that bank with an 05:30 local arrival. The aircraft then can turn and operate back in plenty of time to connect into the same departure bank. Their existing slot pair gives a 14:00 departure from MCT, 18:20 arrival at LHR, 20:15 departure LHR, 07:35 arrival MCT.
A bigger aircraft won't help them utilise that connection bank. only a new or different slot pair will do that.
 
PlanesNTrains
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 6:56 pm

Quoting Andy33 (Reply 20):
Oman Air have a departure bank from Muscat around 01:00 local. The slot they have bought allows them to add LHR to that bank with an 05:30 local arrival. The aircraft then can turn and operate back in plenty of time to connect into the same departure bank. Their existing slot pair gives a 14:00 departure from MCT, 18:20 arrival at LHR, 20:15 departure LHR, 07:35 arrival MCT.
A bigger aircraft won't help them utilise that connection bank. only a new or different slot pair will do that.

This particular airline/slot scenario may not fit the argument, but the broader idea of diminishing slot availability just might. There are many thousands of 737's, A320's, 787's, A330's, and A350's coming on-line over the next 10 years, and a lot of that will be expansion and not replacement capacity.

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Andy33
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 7:25 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 21):
This particular airline/slot scenario may not fit the argument, but the broader idea of diminishing slot availability just might. There are many thousands of 737's, A320's, 787's, A330's, and A350's coming on-line over the next 10 years, and a lot of that will be expansion and not replacement capacity.

That's perfectly right, and BA, LHR's biggest player by far, starts taking 787-10s instead of the smaller sizes, along with A350-1000s, almost as soon as the two models become available. They're looking for second hand 77Ws and A388s rather than ordering further new ones. As parent IAG sees A350s as almost a house standard with a common set of fittings to be used on examples ordered by BA, IB, and EI, if a new-build A350-1100 materialises the group might well be interested.
On the shorthaul front, A319ceos will start being replaced by A320neos and A321neos from 2018. But really BA isn't short of slots since the demise of BD mainline, neither is Lufthansa Group, it's the other Heathrow users that are squeezed.
 
kurtverbose
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 7:39 pm

Any ideas on an engine? I hear the XWB-97 is maxed out so if an A350-1100 needed more thrust RR would be looking at another derivative with a bigger fan.

I can't see GE offering the GE9x.
 
ap305
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 7:54 pm

Quoting kurtverbose (Reply 23):
Any ideas on an engine? I hear the XWB-97 is maxed out so if an A350-1100 needed more thrust RR would be looking at another derivative with a bigger fan.

My Guess is a new neo type pylon allowing a much bigger fan and perhaps a wing span extension to lower drag and increase lift.
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packsonflight
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 7:59 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 8):
The interesting question is what this means for the A380..

That is the interesting part..

Since Leahy is saying this, it more or less means it is going to happen

if they are launching bigger 350 at FAS it means they are putting 380 upgrade on hold, or at least they are doing the 1100 before the 380. And if the 1100 is going to happen they will have to a major seat mile cost improvement on the 380 to keep it relevant in the market, meaning they will have carve out some weight+ aerodynamic improvement, on top of the engine job.

Quoting TP313 (Reply 17):
This is just my opinion, but it should be something like this:

nr. seats (3-class): arround 390

MTOW: somewhere between 325 and 330 T

range (with 390 pax): 7800 nm

So it would be something like a composite equivalent to the 77W with 10-across Y seating.

P.S.: would just like to add that if the current 350-1000 wing is kept, these numbers would require a 105 klb engine,
which doesn't exist yet...


The takeoff weight depends on the fuel burn improvement available at the time of service entry. If RR can supply engine sometimes after 2020 with more than 5% improvement in fuel burn it can offset the increase in OEW and possibly keep the MTOW below 320t
 
LSZH34
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 8:10 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 2):

B777-9 and LX don't match...
 
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KarelXWB
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 8:27 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 8):
The interesting question is what this means for the A380..

Everyone knows the A380 needs an upgrade, with or without A350-1100, as it faces competition from the smaller 777-9.
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Ruscoe
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 8:52 pm

Quoting kurtverbose (Reply 23):
Any ideas on an engine? I hear the XWB-97 is maxed out so if an A350-1100 needed more thrust RR would be looking at another derivative with a bigger fan.

This is the salient point imo.

The 350-1100 with 97,000lbs on board would be a great regional aircraft, but not a great long range aircraft.

In addition the XWB-97 is an unknown quantity at this time, regarding performance, and time on wing. (I would be more concerned with the latter).

Ruscoe
 
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autothrust
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 8:53 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 2):
The 777-9 program has a while to go and many airlines are just starting their 77W operation, three come to Mind: SWISS,

This order was apart other reasons(to late for ordering A350, availability) mostly politically motivated.

Swiss will get at some point the A350. The 777-9 is just to big the 787 to small.

[Edited 2016-02-16 12:54:38]
Flown on: DC-9, MD-80, Fokker 100, Bae 146 Avro, Boeing 737-300, 737-400, 747-200, 747-300,747-400, 787-9, Airbus A310, A319, A320, A321, A330-200,A330-300, A340-313, A380, Bombardier CSeries 100/300, CRJ700ER/CRJ900, Embraer 190.
 
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rotating14
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 9:07 pm

Quoting ZKOJQ (Reply 5):
What concrete indications have we actually had that SQ is moving in that direction??  

It was a rumor at the 2014 Singapore Air Show. If, as the article indicates, Singapore is looking at a replacement for it's 777 fleet, the 779 may still be in the running since the 20 options for the A359 order have not been converted into A35K's.

http://www.ibtimes.com/singapore-air...-worth-15-billion-or-order-1554537
 
PhoenixVIP
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 9:09 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 27):

A380 upgrade has already been pushed to the second half of the next decade which I fully agree with. The A380-900 in 2025 will come of age with the demand in air travel by then.

Any A350-1100 iteration need to be out at around the same time as the 777X. So likely around 2021.

Constant A.Net wet dream is that the A350-1100 needs to beat the 777-9 to be competitive. The A330-300 never beat the 777-200ER for range payload or capacity but has definitely been the more popular and successful plane out of the two. The existing engines (we are talking about a XWB-97 in 5 years time) with the existing wing is more than adequate for a decent 11 hour flight with a capacity of around 380 in three class. That will cover the whole of Asia and Europe plus transatlantic and shorter transpacific flights. That alone will be enough.
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roseflyer
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 9:15 pm

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 28):

The 350-1100 with 97,000lbs on board would be a great regional aircraft, but not a great long range aircraft

I wonder what Airbus will do to compete with the 777-8/9 wing. The A350 wing is quite a bit smaller than the 777 wing. I wonder how much more payload they can get out of the A350 wing without a significant extension.
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trex8
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 9:32 pm

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 28):
In addition the XWB-97 is an unknown quantity at this time, regarding performance, and time on wing. (I would be more concerned with the latter).

And the GE9X isnt an unknown quantity???
 
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Aquila3
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 9:37 pm

Quoting roseflyer (Reply 32):
I wonder what Airbus will do to compete with the 777-8/9 wing. The A350 wing is quite a bit smaller than the 777 wing. I wonder how much more payload they can get out of the A350 wing without a significant extension.

I guess they will do more or less like the 7810. Accept some penality in payload/range. They will never get to the 779 capacity and range, anyway, but not eveybody is EK.
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tortugamon
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 9:40 pm

Quoting packsonflight (Reply 25):
Since Leahy is saying this, it more or less means it is going to happen

Right, just like all of those new A380 orders he promises every year. The man cannot be trusted with his prognostications.

Quoting kurtverbose (Reply 23):
Any ideas on an engine? I hear the XWB-97 is maxed out so if an A350-1100 needed more thrust RR would be looking at another derivative with a bigger fan.

3 different engines for 3 different A350s!

Quoting PhoenixVIP (Reply 31):
Any A350-1100 iteration need to be out at around the same time as the 777X. So likely around 2021.

Not sure why that is. That is the earliest A350 availability at this point. New engine and new wing in 5 years?

Even if they are at the same time any A350 slots filled up by the A350-1100 will hurt A359/A351 availability which I presumed would fill the line for the next 10 years anyway. I continue to think this is a bad idea before ~2025 or so.

tortugamon
 
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moo
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 9:48 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 35):
Right, just like all of those new A380 orders he promises every year. The man cannot be trusted with his prognostications.

Going by the money he makes for Airbus, I'd take him over anyone on this site any day of the week, and twice on Sundays.


Quoting tortugamon (Reply 35):

3 different engines for 3 different A350s!

Is that any different to the 777 that has been flying for the past 20 years?
 
Ruscoe
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 9:49 pm

Quoting trex8 (Reply 33):
And the GE9X isnt an unknown quantity???

It is, but it hasn't being pushed to the limit of temps, materials and speeds.




Ruscoe
 
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Richard28
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 10:08 pm

I thought the GE9x has ceramics and water cooling features to deal with temps? It is being pushed surely?
 
WIederling
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 10:24 pm

Quoting roseflyer (Reply 32):
The A350 wing is quite a bit smaller than the 777

wing areas, mtow:
A350-1000
460m² for 308t MTOW, 669kg/m² loading
777X
436 + 30 ~= 466m² for 351t MTOW, 753kg/m² loading

( 777x area from Aspire article. )
one could back compute from the 777-300ER wing via 12% better L/D and the wider wingspan ( 71m)

I don't think the airbus wing is "too small" in comparison.
But we could say that the 777-8X is too heavy for the delta in capabilities.
( oew 155t versus 188t for a 33t delta going by preliminary data i could find.)
Murphy is an optimist
 
trex8
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 10:24 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 35):
Right, just like all of those new A380 orders he promises every year. The man cannot be trusted with his prognostications.

Theyre about as accurate as all those 747-8 orders.
 
kurtverbose
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 10:47 pm

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 37):
It is, but it hasn't being pushed to the limit of temps, materials and speeds.

That is purely conjecture that the 97 is pushed for reliability. What evidence do you have for it?
 
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scbriml
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 10:56 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 35):
3 different engines for 3 different A350s!

Same family. With the predominance of 'power by the hour' type deals, it's not much of an issue to be honest.   
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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qfvhoqa
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 10:59 pm

Quoting MrHMSH (Reply 12):
I don't think in this climate it's going to mean much, it may mean a loss of face and prestige, but only marginally if at all, and they'd simply not make a big deal out of it. If that's the alternative to installing 9 abreast (extremely unlikely on the 779) and suffering in terms of economic competitiveness I don't see any other way, CX and SQ will/would go 10 abreast.

I'm not so sure we should be lumping SQ & CX into the same boat. While both are premium Asian network carriers, their traffic patterns are quite different. SQ is far more exposed to ME3 than CX, due to ME3's limited Chinese presence, and CX is more affected by the Chinese 3's expanding international networks.
So far SQ has resisted 10-abreast 777s, despite ME3 all going that route. CX on the other hand, has MU already going 10-abreast. Were CZ or CA to move to 10-abreast, I would say it's a given CX will follow.

Quoting Andy33 (Reply 22):
But really BA isn't short of slots since the demise of BD mainline, neither is Lufthansa Group, it's the other Heathrow users that are squeezed.

Neither are AF/KL it seems, as they're the ones who not only lease out some of their slots, but have also recently sold to WY & EK.
 
trex8
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 11:09 pm

Quoting kurtverbose (Reply 41):
Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 37):
It is, but it hasn't being pushed to the limit of temps, materials and speeds.

That is purely conjecture that the 97 is pushed for reliability. What evidence do you have for it?

Wasnt the whole point of the hardware changes on the XWB97 to maintain time on wing???? IIRC RR said they could get the thrust to ?95K with the 84 but the increased temps would hit longevity so they made hardware changes to increase thrust and keep the reliability etc.
 
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MrHMSH
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Tue Feb 16, 2016 11:42 pm

Quoting PhoenixVIP (Reply 31):
Constant A.Net wet dream is that the A350-1100 needs to beat the 777-9 to be competitive. The A330-300 never beat the 777-200ER for range payload or capacity but has definitely been the more popular and successful plane out of the two. The existing engines (we are talking about a XWB-97 in 5 years time) with the existing wing is more than adequate for a decent 11 hour flight with a capacity of around 380 in three class. That will cover the whole of Asia and Europe plus transatlantic and shorter transpacific flights. That alone will be enough.

I think the question here is how large the market is for a (relatively) short range A350-1100, because this is a vaguely similar market (albeit 20 years on) to the 773, which didn't sell terribly well, despite theoretically having the CASM advantage over the 77E.
 
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Erebus
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Wed Feb 17, 2016 12:52 am

Quoting scbriml (Reply 42):
Same family. With the predominance of 'power by the hour' type deals, it's not much of an issue to be honest.

There's still more commonality between the entire A350 line up than any combination of the 777/787/A350 in the fleet.

As an aside, it is not uncommon to find airlines operating a fleet of 777s powered by multiple engine variants and I can't see too many major airlines operating only one set of engines at any given time in the future. Same with the A330 ceos and neos.
 
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crimsonchin
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Wed Feb 17, 2016 1:07 am

This seems more like Leahy just running his mouth than anything. But Farnborough is still 5 months away, so who knows.
 
tortugamon
Posts: 6795
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Wed Feb 17, 2016 1:12 am

Quoting Aquila3 (Reply 34):
I guess they will do more or less like the 7810. Accept some penality in payload/range. They will never get to the 779 capacity and range, anyway, but not eveybody is EK.

I personally believe that those don't need the 779 range will want the A351 already. Don't see a great demand for an immediate A350-1100. Late next decade I do.

Quoting moo (Reply 36):
Going by the money he makes for Airbus, I'd take him over anyone on this site any day of the week, and twice on Sundays.

Although I have great respect for members around here, that isn't the greatest bar to leap.

Quoting moo (Reply 36):
Is that any different to the 777 that has been flying for the past 20 years?

Well the 77L, 77W, and 77F are the same engine. I do think the changing of engines prevented sales to those that operated the 77E but resisted the jump to the 77W (UA, AA, DL, BA, etc). Certainly some came around but if there was more commonality I think they could have made the good decision sooner.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 42):
Same family. With the predominance of 'power by the hour' type deals, it's not much of an issue to be honest.   

It does mitigate it but its still a lack of commonality which will still bring headaches or the added fees of power by the hour relative to one engine on all future members of the 787 or the 777X is real. Someone has to pay for that complexity and duplicacy of parts/training/spares.

Quoting Erebus (Reply 46):
As an aside, it is not uncommon to find airlines operating a fleet of 777s powered by multiple engine variants and I can't see too many major airlines operating only one set of engines at any given time in the future.

I disagree. I think there is real hesitation to bring on a new engine for a small fleet.

Quoting crimsonchin (Reply 47):
This seems more like Leahy just running his mouth than anything.

Agreed.


tortugamon
 
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Erebus
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A350 Stretch May Be Launched At Farnborough - Pt 1

Wed Feb 17, 2016 2:12 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 48):
It does mitigate it but its still a lack of commonality which will still bring headaches or the added fees of power by the hour relative to one engine on all future members of the 787 or the 777X is real. Someone has to pay for that complexity and duplicacy of parts/training/spares.

How much of a headache is it in terms of complexity, duplicacy of parts/training/spares operating a fleet composed of only the A350 members compared to the 787/777 combination? Once again, there's still more commonality between the A350 members than its rivals occupying the same market space, and despite this, there are airlines that have forgone the A350 for the 787/777 combo. Commonality is nice, but there are other factors that are given consideration ahead of it here.

[Edited 2016-02-16 18:15:35]
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