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kelvin933
Posts: 451
Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2014 9:20 am

RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 3:37 pm

Quoting Kiwinlondon (Reply 24):
The economics of this have been totally overstated. The Germans, French and everyone else are still going to want to sell their cars, champagne etc to the UK...and not surprisingly will still want to fly and fly cheaply.

The economic part that is most at risk fom Brexit is not manufactured goods, it is financial and professional services.
The threat is that should the UK exit the single market, the nations on the inside are likely to erect regulatory and licensing barriers to encourage(force) providers of these services to relocate inside single market.
“Nations have no permanent friends or allies, they only have permanent interests.”
 
Summa767
Posts: 1848
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 3:57 pm

Quoting gct64 (Reply 45):
It suits all EU politicians to scaremonger right now and try to scare the UK electorate into voting to stay in (which is, realistically, probably the most likely outcome of the vote) but if Brexit happens they will scramble to do trade deals.

I would agree that there's not going to be an overnight shift in trade. Indeed, I would think that existing arrangements would probably be unchanged for while, maybe even a long one. However, I do think that companies investment could very well be affected, and new companies establishing in Europe would prefer to set base within the EU rather than outside of it, and that existing multinationals would want to invest in their EU bases over UK ones.

The UK with its poor productivity is not exactly attractive, but fairly flexible labour and certainly being part of the EU is a postive factor for some.
After the crisis,whereas some European countries such as Italy, Greece and France still have structural problems (though France is still 20% more productive than the UK!), others such as Spain, Portugal and Ireland are setting themselves for a competitive future. As it is, Spain is growing faster than the UK, and Ireland even more so. Spain has very good infrastructure and with its educated workforce and labour reforms and firmly part of the 500 million people market, might just prove more attractive to future investment. So I see a longer term disadvantage rather than a short term one.
 
LGAviation
Posts: 873
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 4:20 pm

Quoting gct64 (Reply 45):
There is no doubt that the EU will quickly negotiate trade agreements (including air services) with an independent UK. The UK is Germany's biggest trading partner (almost €0.5Billion per DAY!) and, importantly, Germany generates a significant surplus from that trade. Does anyone really think that Germany, with its current low GDP growth, will risk even a small hiccup in that trade?

That was a good one 
Don't overestimate Britain's role as a trading partner for Germany.
Germany is the UK's biggest trading partner in both imports and exports BUT THE UK BY FAR ISN' GERMANY's LARGEST trading parter. In exports, the UK is ranked second after France, while in imports, it's ranked sixth after the Netherlands, France, Belgium, China and Italy. And the percentage of German trade for the UK is far greater than Britain's share in German trade.

Don't get me wrong, I believe there will be a deal, but your display of the German position is simply inaccurate. And the growth rates of 2.2% v 1.7% really isn't that much of a difference especially considering the possible short term effects of a BREXIT for the UK. The only reason the Uk might enter these negotiations in a stronger position is that Germany is still reluctant to present clear demands on the international stage (except maybe in the case of Greece). That being said, I'd love the UK to stay.
2018: ADD CPH DAR DEN DME DUB FRA HAH HAM IST JIB KEF LYR MEL OSL PEK PKC PVG RAK STN SVO SYD YVR
 
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robffm2
Posts: 343
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 4:53 pm

Quoting gct64 (Reply 45):
The UK is Germany's biggest trading partner (almost €0.5Billion per DAY!) and, importantly, Germany generates a significant surplus from that trade.

Since when? Maybe Germany is for the UK the biggest, but for Germany the UK is only number three, following by a wide margin the US and France.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaf...ands-groesster-kunde-14081391.html

[Edited 2016-02-22 08:53:35]
 
Andy33
Posts: 2570
Joined: Tue Sep 15, 2009 9:30 am

RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 5:59 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 16):
How, what EU/EEA airline is flying inside of the UK but Ryan Air?

Aer Lingus flies between Belfast and London. Now admittedly Aer LIngus is pert of IAG so an intra-group reshuffle could see the flights continue as BA (perhaps wetleasing the exact same planes and crews...).
 
BA0197
Posts: 392
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 7:04 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 54):
If you dream about that the EU will be forced to quickly do some speedy agreement with the UK, I understand of course that you are not worried. It took Switzerland more than ten years to make agreements to have something approaching the EEA. It is a dream that the EU will give the UK preferential treatment after Brexit.
Why should the EU not just piss on the UK? For what does the EU need the UK? They can give a shit what happens to you. If you bail out you can look after yourself and so on.

You clearly lack the knowledge required to come to a sensible conclusion about the actualities of a Brexit (which in all likeness will not happen). The EU, as a whole, will not want to cut itself off from an entire market - especially a market which has a trade surplus (which the UK is). An international coalition like the EU is not in the business of revenge. It would not be in the interest of European nations, people and businesses for the EU not to respect a Brexit and suffer economic pain from a position that, if taken, would be purely spiteful. EU-UK trade is here to stay. That includes air transport agreements and airlines. Europeans would not be too happy to see Easyjet gone from European skies. I give the EU and Europeans much more credit that you do it seems.
 
94717
Posts: 2789
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 7:20 pm

I cannot avoid the feeling that UK need to desire what it wants.

In or Out and we all need to live with it.

While Brexit of course is the biggest political issue in the UK Germany , Scandinavia is probably more worried about how to handle 1-2 million refugees per year in short and long terms.

If the Brittish wants to loose the right to work, live, study anywhere into the EU I think the Brittish will wake up with hangover and hope that they will be able to negotiate from outside and not within. Of course the position will be better then the Norvegian but small politics inside UK and special eastern Europe will get its chance to play ugly.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9652
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 7:54 pm

Quoting BA0197 (Reply 56):
You clearly lack the knowledge required to come to a sensible conclusion about the actualities of a Brexit (which in all likeness will not happen). The EU, as a whole, will not want to cut itself off from an entire market - especially a market which has a trade surplus (which the UK is). An international coalition like the EU is not in the business of revenge. It would not be in the interest of European nations, people and businesses for the EU not to respect a Brexit and suffer economic pain from a position that, if taken, would be purely spiteful. EU-UK trade is here to stay. That includes air transport agreements and airlines. Europeans would not be too happy to see Easyjet gone from European skies. I give the EU and Europeans much more credit that you do it seems.

You clearly lack the knowledge required to come to a sensible conclusion about the actualities of a Brexit
The UK cuts itself off from a huge market, several times as big as its new home market and the EU looses part of its market and the EU suffers and the UK not, very likely.   
The EU as a whole is a more important trading partner for the UK, than the UK for any single EU member. But the trade numbers are not only regarding goods, were the UK has an overall trade deficit, (very desirable situation to be in   ), but also regarding services, where banking is at the forefront. It is crazy to assume that banking service to the EU could continue from London after Brexit as before Brexit. It seems that some dreamers in the UK really believe they can have their cake and eat it too.

[Edited 2016-02-22 12:09:46]

[Edited 2016-02-22 12:31:24]
 
f4f3a
Topic Author
Posts: 625
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 8:17 pm

The good thing about this referendum is it will highlight issues that are of concern to many nations inside
The EU and not just the Uk. I believe that the EU needs to see reform for it to survive. There is a lot of
Bureaucracy and waste and Undemocratic practices going on within. I think that the EU is a good
Thing on the whole but needs updating.
 
a380787
Posts: 4573
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 8:43 pm

Brexit is such a stupid idea. They're already outside of both Euro and Schengen. Maybe they're still nostalgic of the previous centuries when the British Empire and its navy actually ruled the world. Merkel's dichotomy is interesting - she doesn't want her *Reich* to shrink, but simultaneously, she'll become the undisputed head of EU, leading it both economically and politically.

I hope Cameron didn't forget what happened the last time Germany ruled Europe.
 
a380787
Posts: 4573
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 8:47 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 58):
It is crazy to assume that banking service to the EU could continue from London after Brexit as before Brexit. It seems that some dreamers in the UK really believe they can have their cake and eat it too.

FRA, of all places, will be the biggest beneficiary of continental European banking once London becomes inaccessible.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9652
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 8:50 pm

Quoting f4f3a (Reply 59):
The good thing about this referendum is it will highlight issues that are of concern to many nations inside
The EU and not just the Uk. I believe that the EU needs to see reform for it to survive. There is a lot of
Bureaucracy and waste and Undemocratic practices going on within. I think that the EU is a good
Thing on the whole but needs updating.

I am pretty sure that the EU is far from perfect and there are many things to be improved. But the UK is not going for improvement of this and that, but after one of the main pillars, free movement of people inside the EU.
Furthermore the UK is not interested to carry its weight on the money side, membership for half price I would call that.
The UK has never been the only netto paying member and far from the one carrying the biggest load per citizen. The biggest load overall you will find with Germany, the biggest load per citizen you will find in the Nordic Countries, also Norway and Iceland are through their EEA association netto paying associate members. But there is one member complaining and complaining and still complaining after a reduction of payments compared to others in similar financial situations and that is the UK. If the UK does not get what it wants, what sometimes happens in a community, you get the Brexit.
Some parties, not the endless patient Germans like a mother trying to keep the family together, are getting tiered of the naughty never satisfied child in the community and would rather see it leaving than feeding it more sweets.
 
shankly
Posts: 1406
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2000 10:42 pm

RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 8:53 pm

My sense is Britain will vote to leave. The European experiment has accelerated beyond its original proposition without check. Its time for a re-set.

Scotland can go it alone, but will not join the EU....the Spanish (Catalonia) will have more influence on that than Westminster

Will it change things in aviation? Not that dramatically. Need an aviation example of non-political success? Star Alliance, One World and what ever the other one is called. They work because of trade, not because of politics.

Airbus? It assembles airframes. It does not build avionics, nor interiors, nor engines. Not wiring components or fuel pumps or hydraulic systems or windscreens or light bulbs or entertainment systems. Tyres, brakes, fuel lines, carpets, galleys and toilets? No they all come from manufacturers in a GLOBAL market. And they always will. Us Brits are quite good at afew of these and will continue to make our markets, be it with Airbus, Boeing, Embraer or Bombardier (OK, fair point about Bombardier)

Put away the vested interest of Eurocrats whose salaries and pensions depend on imposing power from their unelected positions. Trade always emerges as the all powerful underpin.

If we Brits elect to leave and we fail? Don't shed a tear...at least we had a go.....
L1011 - P F M
 
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JetBuddy
Posts: 2623
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 10:31 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 60):
I hope Cameron didn't forget what happened the last time Germany ruled Europe.

Nobody in Europe will ever forget that. But an EU without the UK as a member state is not even remotely a similar situation. Merkel screwed up big time with the refugee situation. She's lost the confidence of a lot of people.

Quoting shankly (Reply 63):

My sense is Britain will vote to leave. The European experiment has accelerated beyond its original proposition without check. Its time for a re-set.

I'm not so sure the UK will leave, but I agree that the EU has gotten out of hand and far beyond the original intention. All of this would be fine if it was a proper democratic process leading up to it. But that's not the case.
 
Summa767
Posts: 1848
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 1:30 am

RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 10:41 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 60):
Brexit is such a stupid idea. They're already outside of both Euro and Schengen. Maybe they're still nostalgic of the previous centuries when the British Empire and its navy actually ruled the world. Merke

You are right about the nostalgia of greater times, but in seeking to be a Greater Britain, looks like the result will be Little England. Not overnight, but over some years.
The falling Sterling today may already be a sign of economic effects even at a shorter term.

I look forward to hearing what Willie Walsh and other IAG people have to say about this on Friday.
I expect that they will say that they see a lot of the potential coming from MAD and DUB anyway..

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