|Quoting gct64 (Reply 45):|
It suits all EU politicians to scaremonger right now and try to scare the UK electorate into voting to stay in (which is, realistically, probably the most likely outcome of the vote) but if Brexit happens they will scramble to do trade deals.
I would agree that there's not going to be an overnight shift in trade. Indeed, I would think that existing arrangements would probably be unchanged for while, maybe even a long one. However, I do think that companies investment could very well be affected, and new companies establishing in Europe would prefer to set base within the EU rather than outside of it, and that existing multinationals would want to invest in their EU bases over UK ones.
The UK with its poor productivity is not exactly attractive, but fairly flexible labour and certainly being part of the EU is a postive factor for some.
After the crisis,whereas some European countries such as Italy, Greece and France still have structural problems (though France is still 20% more productive than the UK!), others such as Spain, Portugal and Ireland are setting themselves for a competitive future. As it is, Spain is growing faster than the UK, and Ireland even more so. Spain has very good infrastructure and with its educated workforce and labour reforms and firmly part of the 500 million people market, might just prove more attractive to future investment. So I see a longer term disadvantage rather than a short term one.