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f4f3a
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Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 3:18 pm

Looking at the announcement of a referendum on the Uk staying in the EU I was wondering what affect this might have on airlines if it were to happen. Would this be a problem for companies that cross boarders such as iag or easyjet or Ryanair?
 
anstar
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 3:35 pm

I presume they will attempt to keep a european open skies agreement if they were to exit.
 
JAmie2k9
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 3:35 pm

Quoting f4f3a (Thread starter):

Suspect little problem, they will become like Norway and Switzerland however that may depend on free movement of people which would be the real obstacle.

Would expect the In side to win by 5-10% personally.
 
Mortyman
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 3:47 pm

Quoting f4f3a (Thread starter):
Looking at the announcement of a referendum on the Uk staying in the EU I was wondering what affect this might have on airlines if it were to happen. Would this be a problem for companies that cross boarders such as iag or easyjet or Ryanair?
Quoting f4f3a (Thread starter):
I presume they will attempt to keep a european open skies agreement if they were to exit.

Depends if they want to end the EU membership as a whole or if they want to become like Norway. Not officially a member of the EU, but just a member of EEA. Norway is a member of the EEA and is part of the open skies agreement between the EU open skies and EU /US open skies agreement.


As much I would love to see the UK leave the EU, I would be very surprised if they did. I'm afraid that when all comes to show, the UK public will stay in with whatever lame new proposals Cameron has managed to get through.
 
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winterlight
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 6:54 pm

We won't be leaving. CameronBot has been given his orders.
Question everything. Trust no-one.
 
Burkhard
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 8:02 pm

Quoting anstar (Reply 1):
I presume they will attempt to keep a european open skies agreement if they were to exit.

If they can keep the raisins without sharing the bread I doubt. If they decide for the Brexit they are in a very weak position to negociate - that is all the trick to get even better conditions now.

But obviously Easyjet will loose its traffic rights in the EU, Ryanair in the UK.
 
mjoelnir
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 8:49 pm

In case the UK leaves the EU, they also leave the EEA and bilateral agreements will not be in place. I can not imagine that the UK, having left the EU, will apply to EFTA or the EEA for membership. The points of free flow of People included in those are what the UK hates most about the EU.
The UK can go for a status similar to Switzerland, but that would mean years of negotiations.
Uk airlines would be thrown out of the common market, I expect them getting a similar status like the USA inside the EU/EEA.
A company like IAG could substitute Iberia or Vueling for BA, Ryan air is of course Irish, but could have trouble flying inside the UK, like London to Belfast, and EasyJet would have to open an EU subsidiary to live.

It can get really complicated if Northern Ireland and/or Scotland would refuse to leave the EU. I think there are few things as badly thought out as this Brexit idea.

[Edited 2016-02-21 12:52:20]
 
Freshside3
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 8:59 pm

Greece was supposed to have been kicked out of the EU, too. Hasn't happened. And Britain is not going anyplace, either.
 
rutankrd
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:07 pm

Quoting Freshside3 (Reply 7):
Greece was supposed to have been kicked out of the EU, too. Hasn't happened. And Britain is not going anyplace, either.

Greece was never leaving the EU however could have been FORCED out off the Euro had it not been for the bailouts and debt relief.

The UK referendum is a purely political thing driven by domestic issues and xenophobia by right wing media barons.

Very different.

The risk of BREXIT is regrettably a very real risk at the moment.
 
KaiTak747
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:09 pm

Quoting Freshside3 (Reply 7):

Greece was supposed to have been kicked out of the EU, too.

No it wasn't. There have been some voices inside and outside of Greece calling for it to leave the Eurozone, but that is unlikely to happen and they certainly won't be leaving the EU anytime soon.
 
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speedbored
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:14 pm

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 5):
If they decide for the Brexit they are in a very weak position to negociate

You seem to be assuming that UK airlines have more to lose than other EU airlines. I suspect that the opposite is true.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 6):
It can get really complicated if Northern Ireland and/or Scotland would refuse to leave the EU.

How can they refuse to leave - they are not members. The UK is a member of the EU and, if the UK, as a whole, votes to leave, there will be nothing that any part of the UK can do to prevent it. Their only option would be to declare independence from the UK and then apply to join the EU in their own right(s).

Personally, I really can't see either the UK or the rest of the EU wanting to go back to more restrictive air services between the UK and Europe. I suspect that if the UK does vote to leave, some sort of open skies agreement will be signed.

Quoting Jamie2k9 (Reply 2):
Would expect the In side to win by 5-10% personally.

Don't be so sure - the "outs" have got Boris  
 
yoni
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:19 pm

If there is a Brexit, it will be a big mess for every party (UK and EU states). Airlines will need approval to open new routes from UK or to UK and stricter immigration control for passengers in the UK and in EU states, meaning longer line-ups., will be implemented.

I am quite sure that a new air transport agreement will be signed between both parties to avoid this chaos before UK leaves the EU. It's in their best interests, unless some EU states want to punish the UK (wouldn't be surprised if Germany or some Eastern European countries would favour such action).
 
JAmie2k9
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:26 pm

Quoting yoni (Reply 11):
unless some EU states want to punish the UK (wouldn't be surprised if Germany or some Eastern European countries would favour such action).

Germany need the UK to stay, UK leaving will mean significant power shift from Germany. I expect nations will want to punish them however not through air access however getting common trade etc will not be easy as France, Belgium and a few others will try to make it difficult.
 
LJ
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:26 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 6):
In case the UK leaves the EU, they also leave the EEA and bilateral agreements will not be in place. I can not imagine that the UK, having left the EU, will apply to EFTA or the EEA for membership. The points of free flow of People included in those are what the UK hates most about the EU.

Yet here you'll see the problem for the UK. If they want to join EEA or EFTA, you can bet they'll have to adopt most EU law as they do now, but just don't have anything to say. If you look at Switzerland (the only EFTA country which is not EEA member), you'll see what can happen. Not EEA but having to adopt virtually all EU economic laws and Schengen (to which the UK opposes the most and has an opt out for the moment). Needless to say, the UK can negociate a better deal (which wouldn't include Schengen), but still each EU member should agree to the terms the UK enters EEA or EFTA. Therefore, I wonder what the UK will gain if they leave. The only thing we can be certain of is that IAG, easyJet and Ryanair will probably developing plans (if they haven't already done so) to se what their options would be.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 6):
and EasyJet would have to open an EU subsidiary to live

If the UK is not EFTA member than this is not enough. easyJet will have to move its airline as non-EFTA airlines cannot control an airline in an EFTA Member State (and thus also have to give up easyJet Switzerland). Therefore a Brexit without the UK in EEA or EFTA would be very daamging for easyJet. AFAIK IAG has moved its HQ to Madrid, thus no problems for them (unless the UK government is going to restrict ownership).

Quoting Freshside3 (Reply 7):
Greece was supposed to have been kicked out of the EU, too. Hasn't happened. And Britain is not going anyplace, either.

Greece was supposed to be kicked out of the Euro but not EU. If the UK leaves, it means that it automatically leaves EEA as already pointed out.

[Edited 2016-02-21 13:27:46]
 
yoni
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:30 pm

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 3):
Depends if they want to end the EU membership as a whole or if they want to become like Norway. Not officially a member of the EU, but just a member of EEA. Norway is a member of the EEA and is part of the open skies agreement between the EU open skies and EU /US open skies agreement.


Norway is also part of Schengen. It is probably not the best example for a UK EU exit. Plus, it will take time before UK join the EEA as they will have to negotiate the terms of their membership with EEA states.
 
JAmie2k9
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:31 pm

Quoting LJ (Reply 13):
dless to say, the UK can negociate a better deal (which wouldn't include Schengen),

UK and Ireland are not part of Schengen as it is.
 
mjoelnir
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:34 pm

Quoting speedbored (Reply 10):
You seem to be assuming that UK airlines have more to lose than other EU airlines. I suspect that the opposite is true.

How, what EU/EEA airline is flying inside of the UK but Ryan Air? What other EU/EEA airline would be bothered by the Brexit? But UK airlines would have to stop flights originating in the EU/EEA that go to the EU/EEA like Easyjet with their bases in the EU.
OK, I forgot one airline, Norwegian, but as they do not fly inside the UK, I do not expect a lot of trouble for them, perhaps they have to number their flights differently, with flight numbers originating in the EU/EEA.

In regards to Scotland and Northern Ireland, do they not have certain independence? Opening a can of worms like separation again? Scotland not liking the idea of leaving the EU? Wales has less independence.

Greenland and Faeroe are part of Denmark but not the EU for example, so there is a precedence of only part of the country being in the EU.

I really think you Brits should take a good look at what you could loose exiting, rather than wanting your cake and eating it too.
 
LJ
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:35 pm

Quoting yoni (Reply 14):
Norway is also part of Schengen. It is probably not the best example for a UK EU exit. Plus, it will take time before UK join the EEA as they will have to negotiate the terms of their membership with EEA states.

It doesn't need to become EEA member, EFTA is enough. However, all EFTA members must sign for the unlimited movement of people (which is exactly what the UK opposes).
 
Burkhard
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:35 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 6):
and EasyJet would have to open an EU subsidiary to live.

But with EU majority stake, so no subsidiary but a competitor.
 
LJ
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:38 pm

Quoting Jamie2k9 (Reply 15):
UK and Ireland are not part of Schengen as it is.

They now have an opt out, but you never know what the demands from some EU members will be should the UK apply for EFTA membership. Or do you think that Switzerland took the initiative to be part of Schengen?
 
yoni
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:46 pm

Quoting Jamie2k9 (Reply 12):
Quoting Jamie2k9 (Reply 12):
Quoting Jamie2k9 (Reply 12):
Germany need the UK to stay, UK leaving will mean significant power shift from Germany. I expect nations will want to punish them however not through air access however getting common trade etc will not be easy as France, Belgium and a few others will try to make it difficult.

Of course Germany would prefer the UK to remain in the EU for trade. If the UK leave, Germany will have much more power within the EU as ever before, not less. France would lose a lot as they will have less leverage on Germany.

During the Greece crisis, France and the UK shared the same ideas to resolve the crisis against Germany. Even on the foreign and social policies, France and the UK agree more often than not. Maybe the media in France and the UK adore to bash the other country because of past rivalry. But France and the UK share lots of common policies and the same distrust towards a powerful Germany.
 
LJ
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:47 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 16):
OK, I forgot one airline, Norwegian, but as they do not fly inside the UK, I do not expect a lot of trouble for them, perhaps they have to number their flights differently, with flight numbers originating in the EU/EEA.

Norwegian has a UK subsidiary, thus they won;t have any problems

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 16):
Greenland and Faeroe are part of Denmark but not the EU for example, so there is a precedence of only part of the country being in the EU.

However, your argument is still not valid as Scotland cannot become member of the EU, EEA or EFTA as it's not a sovereign state. This is also why the Faeroe Islands cannot become EFTA member. However, the UK can be a member of EFTA, EEA or EU without Scotland or England (thus basically one option may be that we don't do a Brexit but only England out of the EU, EEA and EFTA). This would mean easyJet would have to relocate to Scotland, Northern Ireland or Wales.
 
yoni
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:53 pm

Quoting LJ (Reply 17):
It doesn't need to become EEA member, EFTA is enough. However, all EFTA members must sign for the unlimited movement of people (which is exactly what the UK opposes).

Right. I don't think many (me included !) understand the complexity (and challenges) of a UK EU exit.

If a UK exit is too easy, other states would be tempted to do the same.
 
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speedbored
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 10:07 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 16):
How, what EU/EEA airline is flying inside of the UK but Ryan Air? What other EU/EEA airline would be bothered by the Brexit? But UK airlines would have to stop flights originating in the EU/EEA that go to the EU/EEA like Easyjet with their bases in the EU.

Well I wasn't just talking about intra-UK or intra-EU flying. I'm sure that the UK leaving would trigger significant changes to rights and traffic between the UK and EU, and impact the ability of EU airlines to syphon international traffic from the Uk regions.

I also see foreign ownership rules causing some big issues, especially for BA/IAG. It's entirly possible that post-exit, BA could technically be considered an EU airline rather than a UK one.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 16):
In regards to Scotland and Northern Ireland, do they not have certain independence? Opening a can of worms like separation again? Scotland not liking the idea of leaving the EU?

They have some devolved powers. Regardless of what Scotland wants, they could not prevent a UK exit if that is what the UK votes for. If they wanted to be in the EU, the only way for Scotland to achieve it would be to declare independence from the UK and then re-apply to join the EU.
 
Kiwinlondon
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 10:11 pm

Brexit is a very real possibility now that the No's have Boris on board.

The economics of this have been totally overstated. The Germans, French and everyone else are still going to want to sell their cars, champagne etc to the UK...and not surprisingly will still want to fly and fly cheaply.

If Brexit happens, it will make no difference to the flying public other than maybe having to flash their passports a little more often. The Europeans need the UK more than we need them.

The World will not come to an end!

Kiwinlondon
 
mjoelnir
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 10:19 pm

Quoting LJ (Reply 21):
However, your argument is still not valid as Scotland cannot become member of the EU, EEA or EFTA as it's not a sovereign state. This is also why the Faeroe Islands cannot become EFTA member. However, the UK can be a member of EFTA, EEA or EU without Scotland or England (thus basically one option may be that we don't do a Brexit but only England out of the EU, EEA and EFTA). This would mean easyJet would have to relocate to Scotland, Northern Ireland or Wales.

Scotland could separate from the UK and apply. The EU was a big point in convincing Scotland to stay. The EU could do a fast one to show the rest of the UK what they lost, no big problems with compliance.

Northern Ireland would run into trouble because of the open border with Ireland, that would close in regards to gods and free flow of people, perhaps sensible to cut rather the UK ties.
I do not know what could happen, but nothing is as cut and dried as it appears.
 
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Aisak
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 10:25 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 6):
It can get really complicated if Northern Ireland and/or Scotland would refuse to leave the EU. I think there are few things as badly thought out as this Brexit idea.

If Britain leaves, I assume the whole UK leaves. That doesn't mean Wales, Northen Ireland or Scotland couldn't vote "Brexit v2.0" and leave the UK so they can apply for EU membership.

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 5):
obviously Easyjet will loose its traffic rights in the EU, Ryanair in the UK.

Well, Easyjet plc could be in trouble to fly routes not involving the UK such as FCO-MUC. Anything from/to the UK to any other country would be covered with a new *or restored* Air Service Agreement between the UK and that country.
Easyjet Switzerland on the other hand, is a company based in Geneva and could, in theory, remain as is.

Ryanair as an Irish company, would only have trouble with routes from UK to 3rd countries or wholy within the UK. Ireland to UK would, again in theory, remain covered.
 
94717
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 10:30 pm

if Brexit is a reality I believe for airliners and airports in England will be depending how the banking sector reacts. Will Frankfurt use this to move its position forwards with EU not accepting London as the hub of Euro trade and bankers moving freely between EU countries?

EFTA is closed to new members and how long will a new trade agreement take? In the long run it might not change much but not knowing future rules is not good for business. Norway for example not happy with its situation in EFTA.

How will EU countries and its voters react to Brexit? Quit many voters will not accept any demands from UK / England in a negotiation. The eastern Europe did not like the latest developments for example.


Scotland? In the referendum one reason to stay was for example time to renogiate new relationships with EU. How will Scotland react.
 
Gemuser
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 10:53 pm

Quoting Aisak (Reply 26):
If Britain leaves, I assume the whole UK leaves.

Probably, but don't bet on it! Britain is a very complex mixture of treaties, [agreed & imposed] that nothing is really certain.
Actually, to me the most interesting situation is that of the Channel Islands, they are NOT part of the UK, they are NOT part of England, they are ruled by HM Queen Elizabeth II directly in her position as Duchess of Normandy. Would the CI change their decision of 800 years ago & rejoin France? Seek independent membership of EU? Something else? I certainly don't know, but there is an opportunity for some creative thinking there.
Also what about the Isle of Man? I don't know its status but as it has its own ICAO nationality prefix I assume it is not part of the UK.

Gemuser
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Freshside3
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 10:54 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 16):
Greenland and Faeroe are part of Denmark but not the EU for example, so there is a precedence of only part of the country being in the EU.

First time I ever heard of this. Which brings to mind another question.... are the Azores and Madeira part of the EU? Or not?
 
BA0197
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 11:17 pm

Quoting Freshside3 (Reply 29):
First time I ever heard of this. Which brings to mind another question.... are the Azores and Madeira part of the EU? Or not?

Both are part of the EU! More astonishingly, several French overseas departments are in the EU and use the euro (although not Europe) as well, such as Reunion and the French Guiana.

To the point of Brexit. I'm very much of the opinion that a practical nature will force EU member states not to be spiteful if Britain leave the EU. It would damage domestic EU economies and hamper trade (and associate profit) within their states. The UK would, as a consequence of voting leave, have very similar standards to the EU and the setting up of a trade agreement would be significantly easier and faster than say the EU-Canada agreement. It would all be down to how spiteful the EU would want to be to the UK post-brexit. I expect the air agreements would follow the same line.

[Edited 2016-02-21 15:17:52]
 
LGAviation
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 11:18 pm

Quoting Freshside3 (Reply 29):

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 16):
Greenland and Faeroe are part of Denmark but not the EU for example, so there is a precedence of only part of the country being in the EU.

First time I ever heard of this. Which brings to mind another question.... are the Azores and Madeira part of the EU? Or not?

To give a brief answer to your question? yes, they are*. With Portugal it's rather uncomplicated.
* (formally these islands are outermost regions of EU member states as are some French overseas territories (including Saint Martin, French Guiana, Martinique and many more as the French tend to keep their overseas territories rather close) and for example the Spanish Canary Islands. This arrangement means that they are part of the EU although not all of the EU laws necessarily apply (i.e. VAT laws; albeit there is a separate arrangement for the German island of Heligoland and some others exempting them only from VAT but no other EU laws). Typically, the Euro would be the currency of these places.

The real fun starts with Overseas Territories. These are not part of the European Union and accordingly EU law (mostly) doesnt apply. You would find Dutch overseas in this category (hence the US dollar as currency in mostly English-speaking Sint Maarten). You would also find some French overseas territories in the Pacific (most notably Polynesia) in this category. And lastly, most of the UK overseas territories (Caymans, Bermuds, Falklands etc.) enjoy a high degree of sovereignty and are found in this category outside of the EU. So technically, there's even precedent within the UK constitutional framework (whether these island nations actually form part of the UK is another question) for some parts staying outside the EU.

This being said, it won't happen. If the UK leaves, all of the UK including Scotland will have to leave the Union.
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mjoelnir
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 11:24 pm

Quoting speedbored (Reply 23):
They have some devolved powers. Regardless of what Scotland wants, they could not prevent a UK exit if that is what the UK votes for. If they wanted to be in the EU, the only way for Scotland to achieve it would be to declare independence from the UK and then re-apply to join the EU.

And why should that be unlikely.

Quoting speedbored (Reply 23):
Well I wasn't just talking about intra-UK or intra-EU flying. I'm sure that the UK leaving would trigger significant changes to rights and traffic between the UK and EU, and impact the ability of EU airlines to syphon international traffic from the Uk regions.

Or LHR loosing its position as the gateway to Europe.

Quoting Kiwinlondon (Reply 24):
The economics of this have been totally overstated. The Germans, French and everyone else are still going to want to sell their cars, champagne etc to the UK...and not surprisingly will still want to fly and fly cheaply.

Or radically understates. A lot of companies could start moving their bases, it is quite the difference looking at a local market of 500 or 65 millions. London could loose its position as the banking centre.

Quoting speedbored (Reply 23):
I also see foreign ownership rules causing some big issues, especially for BA/IAG. It's entirly possible that post-exit, BA could technically be considered an EU airline rather than a UK one.

With Easyjet perhaps needing to move their base to the EU, the UK could be left without a serious big airline. Virgin Atlantic could than become the national carrier.
 
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robffm2
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 11:33 pm

Quoting yoni (Reply 22):
If a UK exit is too easy, other states would be tempted to do the same.

I don't think so. What other states would like to leave the EU? There is even more to loose for them than for the UK.

Quoting Kiwinlondon (Reply 24):
The Europeans need the UK more than we need them.

Care to elaborate a little on this argument?
And last time I checked the globe, the islands making up the UK were still part of Europe. The UK might leave the EU, but it will be really interesting to see how they leave Europe.
 
mjoelnir
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Sun Feb 21, 2016 11:52 pm

Quoting BA0197 (Reply 30):
To the point of Brexit. I'm very much of the opinion that a practical nature will force EU member states not to be spiteful if Britain leave the EU. It would damage domestic EU economies and hamper trade (and associate profit) within their states. The UK would, as a consequence of voting leave, have very similar standards to the EU and the setting up of a trade agreement would be significantly easier and faster than say the EU-Canada agreement. It would all be down to how spiteful the EU would want to be to the UK post-brexit. I expect the air agreements would follow the same line.

Why should the EU make it easy for the UK. Everybody else associating had to agree to a big part of the EU rules and especially to free movement of capital, free movement of services, free movement of trade and free movement of people.
Switzerland not wanting to accept free movement of people had to go through many years long negotiations. I doubt that the rejection of the last point by the UK can lead to easy and simple negotiations. Letting this points fall will lead to a bad example for the EU, compromising inner EU deliberations and compromising associations with several countries in the future.
 
prebennorholm
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 1:29 am

Quoting f4f3a (Thread starter):
Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

In case of Brexit, then we a-nutters can finally end twenty years of discussions about LHR runway #3. There will be no need for it.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
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CARST
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 7:48 am

If the UK leaves, their economy will take such a hard hit. All that neo-liberal banking business in London built on European money, will loose a lot of business. Taking your money for investment to the UK would be nothing else than taking your money to Switzerland, Luxemburg or Lichtenstein right now...

Whatever can be said about the EU and I don't wanna judge right now if it works or not, but the main idea was a very simple one: Removing trade taxes between the European countries. What started as the European Coal and Steel Community and later evolved into the European Economic Community until becoming the "Union" with the Masstricht Treaty is one huge success story. Schengen helped a lot to remove trade costs due to marginal border controls and no more hour- or day-long waiting times for trucks, ships and aircraft.

Opting out of these advantages will be a big hit to UK economy. Way more than to the EU-economy.


Regaridng aviation, there won't be many changes. Norwegian might have to leave the UK with their longhaul flying and Ryanair would have to stop domestic connections within the UK. Only Easyjet would really suffer, no more flying within the EU as a non-EU airline.

The UK, which joined in a time of economic struggles in the early 70s, have gained (and taken) so much from the EU, if they would leave now this would be a huge betrayal to the whole idea of the European Community...
 
LJ
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 8:02 am

Quoting Aisak (Reply 26):
If Britain leaves, I assume the whole UK leaves. That doesn't mean Wales, Northen Ireland or Scotland couldn't vote "Brexit v2.0" and leave the UK so they can apply for EU membership.

Not possible as explained earlier as Scotland, Wales and NOrthern Ireland are not soveriegn states. Thus to become EU (or EFTA/EEA member) they've to leave the UK first.

Quoting Aisak (Reply 26):
Easyjet Switzerland on the other hand, is a company based in Geneva and could, in theory, remain as is.

Not true as easyJet Switzerland will be seen as controlled by easyJet PLC, which won't be allowed should the UK leave EU/EEA.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 25):
Scotland could separate from the UK and apply. The EU was a big point in convincing Scotland to stay. The EU could do a fast one to show the rest of the UK what they lost, no big problems with compliance.

Which will take at least a few months (though should the voters vote to leave the EU, it will take some time, if at all, to leave the EU).
 
opticalilyushin
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 8:31 am

It is very unlikely that the UK will leave the EU. Whilst a lot of people here use the EU like it is a bad name (sadly fuelled my awful tabloids and news headline paranoia), when you sit down and look at the facts the benefits of membership outweighs the disadvantages. I suspect those who do vote for an exit would then be the first to complain about the associated travel restrictions, hiked up mobile phone charges and many other things, if it happened.

It could get quite complicated for Northern Ireland, as we share an open border with another country..potentially having to 'man' the border would cost the UK a fortune, and would it mean an end to the Common Transit Area??
 
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Kiwirob
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 9:03 am

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 3):
Depends if they want to end the EU membership as a whole or if they want to become like Norway.

Becoming like Norway would be stupid, we are a defacto member but without any representation, we follow all the EU rules and regulations but have no say in the process, being like Norway isn't what the UK wants, they want control in their relationship with the EU which is what Norway does not have.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 25):
Scotland could separate from the UK and apply. The EU was a big point in convincing Scotland to stay. The EU could do a fast one to show the rest of the UK what they lost, no big problems with compliance.

How can Scotland separate, they had a referendum, it failed, the Scotish Parliament don't have the mandate or authourity to declare independance.
 
LGAviation
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 9:04 am

Quoting opticalilyushin (Reply 38):
It could get quite complicated for Northern Ireland, as we share an open border with another country..potentially having to 'man' the border would cost the UK a fortune, and would it mean an end to the Common Transit Area??

It depends, as Ireland is outside the Schengen Area, they quite free when it comes to their border security policy. If, however, there would be no following free trade arrangement between the EU and the UK, they might have to impose customs checks. Still, there's precendent for unmanned borders between EU and non-EU states (Italy-Switzerland for instance) and even for states with genuine customs checks necessary (i.e. Andorra-Spain)
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mjoelnir
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 9:21 am

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 39):
Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 25):
Scotland could separate from the UK and apply. The EU was a big point in convincing Scotland to stay. The EU could do a fast one to show the rest of the UK what they lost, no big problems with compliance.

How can Scotland separate, they had a referendum, it failed, the Scotish Parliament don't have the mandate or authourity to declare independance.

Because if the UK leaves the EU they change the conditions under which Scotland agreed to stay, one of the big sticks used was the horror of Scotland not being able to enter the EU straight away after leaving the UK.
With the UK out of the EU they can hardly use their veto.
 
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JetBuddy
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 11:49 am

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 25):
Northern Ireland would run into trouble because of the open border with Ireland, that would close in regards to gods and free flow of people


I know what you meant, but this was rather funny.  
Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 39):
Becoming like Norway would be stupid, we are a defacto member but without any representation, we follow all the EU rules and regulations but have no say in the process, being like Norway isn't what the UK wants, they want control in their relationship with the EU which is what Norway does not have.

I agree. The UK could still negotiate trading agreements with the EU, just like with the US or any other nation or union. I believe speedbored is right when he says that the EU is more dependant on the UK, than vice versa.
 
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eurowings
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 12:12 pm

Quoting CARST (Reply 36):
Regaridng aviation, there won't be many changes. Norwegian might have to leave the UK with their longhaul flying and Ryanair would have to stop domestic connections within the UK. Only Easyjet would really suffer, no more flying within the EU as a non-EU airline.

I suspect all these airlines would find workarounds. I'm currently writing a report on transnational licensing and Norwegian now has three licenses (Ireland, Norway and the UK), unless the UK restricts foreign ownership from European countries, which I very much doubt it would, then prior to Brexit Ryanair could establish Ryanair UK and easyJet could set-up easyJet Ireland (without even flying there, Norwegian doesn't under their Irish license). There is a large cost associated with gaining an AOC, but there is a precedent with Norwegian for this type of thing and Ireland is usually accommodating providing there is an appropriate holding company.

[Edited 2016-02-22 04:14:13]
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kdhurst380
Posts: 347
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 1:29 pm

Quoting opticalilyushin (Reply 38):
It could get quite complicated for Northern Ireland, as we share an open border with another country..potentially having to 'man' the border would cost the UK a fortune, and would it mean an end to the Common Transit Area??
Quoting LGAviation (Reply 40):
It depends, as Ireland is outside the Schengen Area, they quite free when it comes to their border security policy. If, however, there would be no following free trade arrangement between the EU and the UK, they might have to impose customs checks. Still, there's precendent for unmanned borders between EU and non-EU states (Italy-Switzerland for instance) and even for states with genuine customs checks necessary (i.e. Andorra-Spain)

The CTA is a separate agreement between the UK (including Northern Ireland), Ireland/Éire, the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands, established long before Schengen or any other combined European political entity existed. In theory, it would be completely unaffected. Aside from this, the UK & Ireland have historically had a strong relationship outside of the EU.
 
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GCT64
Posts: 1906
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 1:57 pm

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 42):
The UK could still negotiate trading agreements with the EU, just like with the US or any other nation or union. I believe speedbored is right when he says that the EU is more dependant on the UK, than vice versa.

There is no doubt that the EU will quickly negotiate trade agreements (including air services) with an independent UK. The UK is Germany's biggest trading partner (almost €0.5Billion per DAY!) and, importantly, Germany generates a significant surplus from that trade. Does anyone really think that Germany, with its current low GDP growth, will risk even a small hiccup in that trade?

It suits all EU politicians to scaremonger right now and try to scare the UK electorate into voting to stay in (which is, realistically, probably the most likely outcome of the vote) but if Brexit happens they will scramble to do trade deals.
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mjoelnir
Posts: 9648
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 3:22 pm

Quoting gct64 (Reply 45):
Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 42):
The UK could still negotiate trading agreements with the EU, just like with the US or any other nation or union. I believe speedbored is right when he says that the EU is more dependant on the UK, than vice versa.

There is no doubt that the EU will quickly negotiate trade agreements (including air services) with an independent UK. The UK is Germany's biggest trading partner (almost €0.5Billion per DAY!) and, importantly, Germany generates a significant surplus from that trade. Does anyone really think that Germany, with its current low GDP growth, will risk even a small hiccup in that trade?

It suits all EU politicians to scaremonger right now and try to scare the UK electorate into voting to stay in (which is, realistically, probably the most likely outcome of the vote) but if Brexit happens they will scramble to do trade deals.

But the other way everything is fine. Why would the UK risk its banking industry by moving it away from its biggest market? Why risk its service industries with producing industries in the doldrums? And with what will the UK replace the imports from Germany?
If Brexit happens the UK economy will go down in flames and will need years to recover. The EU market will shrink from well over 500 million population to about 450 million. The UK market will implode from well over 500 million down to 65 million. The European Union is the biggest single market about 24 % of the worlds GDP. The Brexit would move it from above the USA to slightly below, but still big.
It is not the EU doing scaremongering, it is UK firms including banks thinking about having to move out of the UK if Brexit happens.

have a nice day
Mjoelnir
 
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Airbus747
Posts: 165
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 3:27 pm

Looking forward to more Tu-95 and Tu-160 around the skies of Europe  
 
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GCT64
Posts: 1906
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2007 6:34 pm

RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 3:31 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 46):
It is not the EU doing scaremongering, it is UK firms including banks thinking about having to move out of the UK if Brexit happens.
have a nice day
Mjoelnir

I don't know what you do for a living, but I am a UK CEO of a UK company that exports close to 100% of its output (to Asia, Germany and the US) and I'm not worried about a Brexit for my company nor do I think the UK economy will "go down in flames" if it happens.
You have a nice day too!
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factsonly
Posts: 3111
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RE: Possible Effects Of A UK EU Exit?

Mon Feb 22, 2016 3:32 pm

Quoting speedbored (Reply 23):
and impact the ability of EU airlines to syphon international traffic from the Uk regions.

Certainly not, as.........


.......the UK agreed very liberal air service agreements with quite a number of European nations, prior to EU Open Skies.

In fact the very first UK liberalised air service agreement dates from 1984 with the Netherlands. Assuming these air service agreements would be re-instated, KLM (and other EU carriers) would maintain their traffic rights to UK regions.

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