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WaywardMemphian
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The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Thu Feb 25, 2016 7:41 pm

Happy to see healthy O&D growth continue in life after Delta.

http://m.bizjournals.com/memphis/new...nal-fliers-up-by-more-than-10.html
 
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TWA772LR
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Thu Feb 25, 2016 11:19 pm

This was bound to happen, but I wouldn't call it a "rebirth" per se (and this is coming from a MEM transplant in Houston!). DLs fill obviously left some low hanging fruit for the others to get, but I fear it will never reach the level NW had in the 90s. It's just the market correcting and stabilizing itself.

Now I would love to see any airline at least make a focus city there. It won't happen from DL or AA, UA is the biggest bet for a legacy carrier at .0000000001% (would be a good place to put those 50 RJs...   ). WN maybe a 15% chance, NK about 12%. I'd welcome anyone but G4, and they have a larger presence than WN in MEM.

Memphis needs to start attracting more big business if it wants to increase air traffic. With Fedex and the TNANG both having large presences at MEM, and even a decent UPS one taking into account their SDF WorldHub is one state over, that keeps airport costs low. And with 3 nice parallel runways and a nice big crosswind runway, MEM as an airfield is a very well-built one, perhaps even overbuilt, but its day will come again, it just won't be as bright.

Does anyone have any TATL, TPAC, and Latam PDEW numbers for MEM I can see for kicks?
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OzarkD9S
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 12:11 am

As a STL resident I can assure you there is life after a hub closure.
"My soul is in the sky". -Pyramus- A Midsummer's Night Dream
 
Flaps
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 12:19 am

Quoting OzarkD9S (Reply 2):

As a STL resident I can assure you there is life after a hub closure.

As a PIT resident I can also double down on that and assure you that there is indeed life after a hub closure. It may take awhile but things will definitely improve. You won't have the nonstop destinations but you will have many more options of carriers and significantly better fares due to the competition.
 
IAHWorldflyer
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 12:23 am

I think of all the carriers currently in MEM, WN is the one that could and should expand the most. I still can't believe they dropped ATL and left that route to a monopoly by DL. But I could see them adding PHX, TPA, and MSY. A flight to STL would open up some "connection opportunities".
I think that with the merger, AA is now the largest carrier at MEM, with UA coming in second. It was nice to see some mainline UA planes when I flew up there last weekend!
 
Noise
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 12:28 am

Quoting Flaps (Reply 3):
As a PIT resident I can also double down on that and assure you that there is indeed life after a hub closure. It may take awhile but things will definitely improve. You won't have the nonstop destinations but you will have many more options of carriers and significantly better fares due to the competition.

As an RDU resident I can tell you that life is actually pretty awesome as well.
 
WaywardMemphian
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 1:10 am

Quoting IAHWorldFlyer (Reply 4):
I think that with the merger, AA is now the largest carrier at MEM,

They are, they fly to every hub EXCEPT LAX. Need to get that fixed.

Love to see Spirit replace Allegiant as the resident LCC but with connecting opportunities. Frontier has done well with it's Denver flights. But...with their demphasizing of Denver it limits the opportunity with flying to just that location.

I don't want to see a hub that may drive up prices, prices is what's suppressed that airport for locals for decades. Unless FedEx decides to get into the passenger business using those bellies to drastically expand same day deliveries and use the passenger aspect to drive down the costs. Talk about making a DC hub greater. I could order an item from Target online on Sat morning and have it at my house in Northwest Arkansas that afternoon via a FedEx truck that used it's afternoon XNA/MEM flight to get it here after it was pulled at the Target online fulfillment DC in Memphis.
 
Chisky16
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 1:50 am

What would the chances be of JetBlue building an operation in Memphis? They could use it as a mid-country transit point. Of course, this would mean that the airline would need to invest in opening more cities in the middle of the county, but MEM could be a place for JetBlue to grow outside of slot constraint JFK and space starved BOS.
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PSU.DTW.SCE
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 1:54 am

Quoting Noise (Reply 5):
As an RDU resident I can tell you that life is actually pretty awesome as well.

RDU is an entirely different story than MEM, STL, CVG and to an extent PIT and BNA.
The underlying fundamental drivers of demand of continued to grow significantly for RDU in the years since its hub days almost 2 decades ago. Regional population growth and continued expansion of business and investment in the region put RDU in a whole different category than the others.
 
MIflyer12
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 2:12 am

Quoting Chisky16 (Reply 7):
What would the chances be of JetBlue building an operation in Memphis? They could use it as a mid-country transit point. Of course, this would mean that the airline would need to invest in opening more cities in the middle of the county, but MEM could be a place for JetBlue to grow outside of slot constraint JFK and space starved BOS.

Probably close to zero. Delta's evaluation of MEM as a hub is colored by its ops at ATL, but desirability of 3rd tier hubs over the last 15 years has sharply declined in the U.S. MEM lacks any significant volume of O&D traffic upon which to build a base. There are lots of places with plenty of gates and concrete that have better demos for commercial air travel.
 
crj200faguy
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 3:36 am

When the tenant of your 2 closest gates to baggage claim is allegiant you aren't being reborn.
When almost all your restaurants are closed and a guy is riding around the terminal on a bicycle selling sandwiches. You aren't being reborn.
When your AA flight to LGA often times has less than 10 people on it. You aren't being reborn.
PIT has businesses. MEM doesn't.
It's still dead and I'm glad I rarely have to fly through there.
 
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pwm2txlhopper
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 4:09 am

I don't think you'll ever see MEM rebound to its peak. If it weren't for Republic/ Northwest, than it never would have been what it was in during its heyday. And that is mostly because it was a hub. Not a lot O/D there.

Memphis is a poor city. There's not a lot there in terms of business and industry. FedEx is the city's largest employer. It's predominant population are poor blacks. Aside from downtown, it's mostly ghetto. The surrounding areas are in rural Tennesee and North Mississippi. Also poor areas without a lot of travel demand. At least no more demand than what is supported in MEM now.

Memphis was In decay twenty years ago. It's even worse these days. High unemployment and high violent crime rates galore. Statistically, your're more likely to become a crime victim in Memphis than somewhere like NYC or LA. I feel safer in those places than when I visit Memphis these days.

[Edited 2016-02-25 20:24:02]
 
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GuitrThree
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 4:19 am

Quoting OzarkD9S (Reply 2):
As a STL resident I can assure you there is life after a hub closure.

But is there life after the Rams????
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WaywardMemphian
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 4:23 am

Quoting crj200faguy (Reply 10):
When the tenant of your 2 closest gates to baggage claim is allegiant you aren't being reborn.
When almost all your restaurants are closed and a guy is riding around the terminal on a bicycle selling sandwiches. You aren't being reborn.
When your AA flight to LGA often times has less than 10 people on it. You aren't being reborn.
PIT has businesses. MEM doesn't.
It's still dead and I'm glad I rarely have to fly through there.

Hate Memphis much? What's amazing is that 20 years ago you could pretty much say the same thing about Nashville. Where Allegiant is located has nothing to do with anything considering the major redo of the B concourse on the way and the side concourses closed off for the time being. Lot's of little things gs going on, huge growth of river cruising is to bring in thousands more to the city, they'll realize that one day wasn't enough and come back. The revitalization of downtown is showing the exact same signs that took place in Nashville jot too long ago and some of those evolved with Nashville's downtown boom are buying up properties in Memphis. But, hate on. The one thing I'd love to see in Memphis is a rail system to hat served as transit for the employees at the FedEx hub and airport and to quick connect other areas of town to the airport like Beale Street and St. Jude. Oh, that brings me to the big one, Memphis and it's medical presence. St. Jude announced a nearly 8 Billion dollar expansion. Other major cities tried to steal it away but they stayed true and the amount of land they own downtown to do it on is impressive.

http://www.bizjournals.com/memphis/n...-confirms-7-billion-expansion.html

That will have an impact on the airport as well being they treat kids from around the world...........for free.
 
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OzarkD9S
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 12:54 pm

Quoting GuitrThree (Reply 12):


But is there life after the Rams????

STL isn't really a football town. We lost the Cardinals to Arizona, "stole" the Rams from LA, then LA "stole" them back. Now if it were the baseball Cards or Blues that left the suicide rate would skyrocket.   

I'm not a sports fan so it would mean nothing to me either way but I would fear for the lives of some of my friends.  
"My soul is in the sky". -Pyramus- A Midsummer's Night Dream
 
Cubsrule
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 2:58 pm

Quoting IAHWorldFlyer (Reply 4):
But I could see them adding PHX, TPA, and MSY. A flight to STL would open up some "connection opportunities".

The trouble with MSY and STL is that the local markets aren't all that large. Take a look at the numbers in Knope's thread about BNA-STL/MSY. MEM wouldn't have connections to prop up the routes, and both drives are easier from Memphis than they are from Nashville.

Quoting WaywardMemphian (Reply 6):
They are, they fly to every hub EXCEPT LAX. Need to get that fixed.

AA is expanding at LAX. It's interesting (perhaps telling) that they have not added MEM and have instead added things like a third BNA flight to a market that arguably had too much capacity before the latest adds.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 8):
The underlying fundamental drivers of demand of continued to grow significantly for RDU in the years since its hub days almost 2 decades ago. Regional population growth and continued expansion of business and investment in the region put RDU in a whole different category than the others.

BNA's passenger numbers are now higher than they were in its hub days. Are RDU's?
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
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b727fa
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 3:31 pm

Quoting pwm2txlhopper (Reply 11):
I don't think you'll ever see MEM rebound to its peak. If it weren't for Republic/ Northwest, than it never would have been what it was in during its heyday. And that is mostly because it was a hub. Not a lot O/D there.

Memphis is a poor city. There's not a lot there in terms of business and industry. FedEx is the city's largest employer. It's predominant population are poor blacks. Aside from downtown, it's mostly ghetto. The surrounding areas are in rural Tennesee and North Mississippi. Also poor areas without a lot of travel demand. At least no more demand than what is supported in MEM now.

Memphis was In decay twenty years ago. It's even worse these days. High unemployment and high violent crime rates galore. Statistically, your're more likely to become a crime victim in Memphis than somewhere like NYC or LA. I feel safer in those places than when I visit Memphis these days.

All of which has zero bearing on the viability of a hub.
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orbital
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 3:44 pm

Quoting pwm2txlhopper (Reply 11):
Memphis is a poor city. There's not a lot there in terms of business and industry. FedEx is the city's largest employer. It's predominant population are poor blacks. Aside from downtown, it's mostly ghetto. The surrounding areas are in rural Tennesee and North Mississippi. Also poor areas without a lot of travel demand. At least no more demand than what is supported in MEM now.

FedEx may be the largest employer, but you're overlooking a lot of other fairly large institutions that are based in Memphis. AutoZone, International Paper, and St. Jude immediately come to mind. What you meant I think, is that there aren't *enough* large businesses to support a large O&D market. But, the way you are phrasing the point is (ahem) a little disparaging. I would also like to point out, that from my doorstep in a "poor, rural area in North Mississippi" to the front door of MEM is a 17 minute drive even in heavy traffic- which means that MEM is actually closer to my home than most of the city of Memphis itself. And furthermore, quoting Wikipedia with a friendly touch of indignation : "DeSoto County has the highest median income in Mississippi and the second highest mean income after Madison County." Not to mention it is the third largest county in Mississippi by population.

There are a lot of structural problems with the city core, and there are elements of what you said that have grains of truth. But, when you take into account the future growth of MEM, it is likely to be driven in large part by other parts of the metro area than the city core, if I had to guess.

For me personally, it was aggravating paying the premium to travel through MEM when it was a NW/Delta hub, and now it is aggravating to have to fly through ATL on business all the time, but I do welcome the fact that choice is expanding through competition. The only negative I can think of was the loss of the awesome AMS direct flight, which I took advantage of many times.

I also am thankful that, apart from the 1960's time-warp in the terminal itself, I have the luxury of flying in and out of a first-class airfield. It is a ghost town in the terminal compared to before, but I am just going to enjoy the hassle-free experience until the local market catches up.
 
WaywardMemphian
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 4:08 pm

Quoting b727fa (Reply 16):
All of which has zero bearing on the viability of a hub.

If he knew what he was talking about by saying Memphis is still in decay i'd pay more attention but Memphis is actually rebounding, lots going on downtown and Midtown not to mention a first class zoo. So much decay IKEA located in Memphis before Nashville. Memphis started to see light at the end of the tunnel when Herrington finally got booted from office. It has it's issues but there's improvement all around.
 
mtnwest1979
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 4:40 pm

Quoting orbital (Reply 17):
: "DeSoto County has the highest median income in Mississippi and the second highest mean income after Madison County

Is that like saying the fastest snail in the race?? LOL.
In my tour of ex-hubs (MEM, PIT, etc) it seemed to me that MEM has about what it needs for the local pax. Still a shame to see such a swath of unused gates
and emptiness of place, but did like the feel of the place.
Hope the future is good for MEM.
Riddle: Which lasts longer, a start-up airline or a start-up football league?
 
WaywardMemphian
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 4:48 pm

New concourse consolidation and remodel is about to get under way along with getting a Global Entry program
 
Lexy
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 6:12 pm

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 9):

Quoting Noise (Reply 5):
As an RDU resident I can tell you that life is actually pretty awesome as well.

RDU is an entirely different story than MEM, STL, CVG and to an extent PIT and BNA.
The underlying fundamental drivers of demand of continued to grow significantly for RDU in the years since its hub days almost 2 decades ago. Regional population growth and continued expansion of business and investment in the region put RDU in a whole different category than the others.

You clearly don't keep up with BNA. With all due respect, BNA has never been busier than it is right now. Pushing 12 million through the doors on the way to 13 soon.

STL is reaching its peak. I doubt there's much growth left for that airport considering the market its in.

MEM will likely never experience what BNA is going through right now. Too much corruption in government and way too much negative appeal.

BTW, the BNA-LAX flights should have 757 or A321 service on them by now. They are almost always oversold and the WN flights are always packed. The extra frequency is needed since AA and DL insist on using smaller equipment to drive up ticket prices.

IKEA isn't in Nashville because land is at a premium. Land in Memphis is cheap and available. Don't get it twisted my friends. MEM is nothing like BNA and it likely never will be. People drive from MEM to fly out of BNA. I see it everyday!

[Edited 2016-02-26 10:19:52]
Nashville, Tennessee KBNA
 
BOSMEMFlyer
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 6:44 pm

Quoting Lexy (Reply 21):
BTW, the BNA-LAX flights should have 757 or A321 service on them by now. They are almost always oversold and the WN flights are always packed. The extra frequency is needed since AA and DL insist on using smaller equipment to drive up ticket prices.

IKEA isn't in Nashville because land is at a premium. Land in Memphis is cheap and available. Don't get it twisted my friends. MEM is nothing like BNA and it likely never will be. People drive from MEM to fly out of BNA. I see it everyday!
Quoting Lexy (Reply 21):
BTW, the BNA-LAX flights should have 757 or A321 service on them by now. They are almost always oversold and the WN flights are always packed. The extra frequency is needed since AA and DL insist on using smaller equipment to drive up ticket prices.

IKEA isn't in Nashville because land is at a premium. Land in Memphis is cheap and available. Don't get it twisted my friends. MEM is nothing like BNA and it likely never will be. People drive from MEM to fly out of BNA. I see it everyday!

Please breathe...I appreciate good hometown stanning, but I think you expect Nashville to have solely 777 service to every hub and spoke in America (I jest). Nashville is having an incredible moment, but I do think we need to look at how the government in Memphis just had a huge shift with the new mayor and shakeup at City Hall...there are some incredible things happening down I-40 that I observe each time I'm back in the land of Delta blues that our friends in middle TN likely won't realize because of their own great development. With all due respect, don't speak for MEM if you're not going to address all the facts just as it isn't fair for someone from RDU to throw shade at BNA.
 
commavia
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 6:44 pm

Quoting WaywardMemphian (Reply 6):
They are, they fly to every hub EXCEPT LAX. Need to get that fixed.
Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 15):
AA is expanding at LAX. It's interesting (perhaps telling) that they have not added MEM and have instead added things like a third BNA flight to a market that arguably had too much capacity before the latest adds.

Considering that MEM is another market - like MCI, MSP, CMH, etc. - where the combined new AA is now among the largest local carriers, and is offering nonstop service to all or most of its hubs which also happen to be (not coincidentally) many of the largest and most important O&D markets in the U.S., I would not be at all surprised to see AA add LAX-MEM on am EMB175 or A319 at some point. With respect to MEM specifically, AA has clearly demonstrated in recent years its ability to successfully take Delta on in key markets - DFW, LGA, DCA - and I suspect LAX would work, too.
 
WaywardMemphian
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 6:53 pm

Quoting Lexy (Reply 21):

When did land price ever stop IKEA. I'm in two years time Nashvegas will have on as well. Till that time, some folks will head to the Memphis store. This is like the stupid we got Trader Vics, you don't stuff I heard. Time took care of that as well. Next thing Memphis will have Publix, oh oh oh..........

The rest of that is comical Nashville vs. Memphis drivel.

I'm sure some still drive to BNA for some Southwest Flights particularly directs but it's declining. Prices in Memphis continue to drop making that 6hr round trip in a car on packed I-40 less appealing.
http://www.bizjournals.com/memphis/n...age-airfare-continues-to-fall.html

Memphis certainly more blue collar than the Ol' Capital, it's reflected in the music. Memphis has Blues and Soul and Nashville has assembly line Pop Country. Yep, certainly more corporate up the road.
 
IAHWorldflyer
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 7:00 pm

Quoting WaywardMemphian (Reply 18):
If he knew what he was talking about by saying Memphis is still in decay i'd pay more attention but Memphis is actually rebounding, lots going on downtown and Midtown not to mention a first class zoo. So much decay IKEA located in Memphis before Nashville. Memphis started to see light at the end of the tunnel when Herrington finally got booted from office. It has it's issues but there's improvement all around.

In all fairness, local leaders in Memphis have been saying the city is on the cusp of greatness for the last 30 years. Nashville has a significant music business that brings in lots of high dollar business traffic. It also has a decent insurance/finance base, plus state government to add to passenger traffic. Memphis has developed an enviable distribution center economy, which takes advantage of the situation of Memphis having a large number of people with high school degrees but no college in the labor force. But distribution center jobs don't require much business travel, nor do they provide lots of disposable income for people to fly off on exotic vacations. Memphis isn't dead, nor is it decaying, but the level of economic growth is fairly low ( see the NY Times article on 2/25) and airline service will grow slowly in an organic manner as demand requires.
 
Lexy
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 7:05 pm

I didn't mention price. There isn't enough land available in the right locations here for IKEA.

I'm a realist about things and I don't sugarcoat my words. MEM has a long way to go to get to where it should be. By that time, BNA will likely have its new terminal built. In the mean time, don't look for WN to add much out of there for now. It's just not viable.
Nashville, Tennessee KBNA
 
BOSMEMFlyer
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 7:11 pm

I think the big box and grocery store argument needs to be put to rest. However, if land price was an issue, why would any of these places be vying for presence here in the Northeast at all??
 
Lexy
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 7:19 pm

Quoting BOSMEMFlyer (Reply 27):
I think the big box and grocery store argument needs to be put to rest. However, if land price was an issue, why would any of these places be vying for presence here in the Northeast at all??

Agreed.

On the subject of The airport, it's highly unlikely WN will do much more than they are now. Reason being BNA and STL are right next door and any growth at MEM would weaken those two markets respectively.
Nashville, Tennessee KBNA
 
NolaMD88fan
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 7:23 pm

Good to see MEM growing the local O&D market. Right now, the airport in terms of pax numbers is on par with OKC which makes a lot of sense from a demographic and economic standpoint. These are similar sized metro areas with a similar sized economic footprint. If trends continue, MEM should easily exceed 4 million pax in 2016. I've always enjoyed my visits to MEM. Beale Street, Mud Island, and the excellent BBQ will keep me coming back.

Total Passengers in 2015

MEM = 3,444,601 (http://www.flymemphis.com/Areas/Admin/Images/Upload_2016141111959.pdf) through Nov 2015
OKC = 3,720,455 (http://www.flyokc.com/statistics/December2015AviationActivity.pdf)

Metro Population 2015 estimate

MEM = 1,370,129 (www.census.gov)
OKC = 1,408,578

Metro GDP in 2014

MEM = $63,611,000,000 (http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_metro/gdp_metro_newsrelease.htm)
OKC = $64,498,000,000
 
Cubsrule
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 7:48 pm

Quoting Lexy (Reply 28):
On the subject of The airport, it's highly unlikely WN will do much more than they are now. Reason being BNA and STL are right next door and any growth at MEM would weaken those two markets respectively.

I'm not sure that BNA and STL have much to do with anything except keeping WN from connecting a lot of passengers at MEM. But MEM lacks service to numerous WN hubs, and the presence of STL and BNA wouldn't preclude stuff like MEM-LAX/PHX/DEN.

Quoting NolaMD88fan (Reply 29):
If trends continue, MEM should easily exceed 4 million pax in 2016. I've always enjoyed my visits to MEM. Beale Street, Mud Island, and the excellent BBQ will keep me coming back.

If anything, MEM should outperform OKC a bit with the similar economic footprints since there is some inbound tourist demand to Memphis.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
WaywardMemphian
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 7:57 pm

Quoting NolaMD88fan (Reply 29):

Two things to watch out for in terms of the Memphis area economy.

First Northeast Arkansas. Yes, the small Delta towns are drying up but Jonesboro is growing fast. The steel industry, yes I said steel industry, in NEA is becoming one the largest regions in the USA producing steel. Nucor, which made all the steel for the new 49's stadium, is expanding in Blytheville and a billion plus dollar plant is getting close to coming on line in Osceola. Osceola has already landed two more companies due to this new plant that supposedly features some new Germany steel making wizardry. Second is the Industrial Supersite between Memphis and Jackson. Infrastructure work has wrapped up and now Tennessee is shopping for multiple super projects to locate there, it's that massive of a site. Both of these places fall under the Memphis area economically and Memphis will benefit from both.

I know class A office space in Memphis is at a Premium because my Brother's company just got done searching for it as they wanted to locate operations out of a DC. There's a need for it and the ball is starting to roll on bringing more online.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 8:05 pm

Quoting WaywardMemphian (Reply 31):
The steel industry, yes I said steel industry, in NEA is becoming one the largest regions in the USA producing steel. Nucor, which made all the steel for the new 49's stadium, is expanding in Blytheville and a billion plus dollar plant is getting close to coming on line in Osceola.

Of course, the aluminum smelter in New Madrid just closed, so overall "metal" industry activity in the area is probably no better than flat.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
Lexy
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 8:27 pm

Quoting WaywardMemphian (Reply 31):

I'm not sure that BNA and STL have much to do with anything except keeping WN from connecting a lot of passengers at MEM. But MEM lacks service to numerous WN hubs, and the presence of STL and BNA wouldn't preclude stuff like MEM-LAX/PHX/DEN.

The amount of influence both stations have is pretty big in the region. Their markets overlap and AA is well poised to snatch up whatever they can. I wouldn't diminish the importance of either. MEM will get more as its needed, but it's doubtful it'll reach 80+ flights a day.
Nashville, Tennessee KBNA
 
Cubsrule
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 8:29 pm

Quoting Lexy (Reply 33):
MEM will get more as its needed, but it's doubtful it'll reach 80+ flights a day.

In your zeal to attack Memphis (which is sadly common in our part of the world), I think you are reading things I did not say . . .
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
WaywardMemphian
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 8:38 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 32):
Of course, the aluminum smelter in New Madrid just closed, so overall "metal" industry activity in the area is probably no better than flat.

Boy, talk about a perfect storm. Getting fleeced by an equity capital outfit, a major power failure and the commodity collapse all at near the same time. Couple with it being 50 years old and you got doomsday written all over it. The big new plant plant in Osceola has a heavy Koch influence behind it.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 8:46 pm

Quoting WaywardMemphian (Reply 35):
The big new plant plant in Osceola has a heavy Koch influence behind it.

I hope it does well. New Madrid got a really raw deal that was, as you point out, largely outside of both the locals' and Noranda's control.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
Lexy
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 8:49 pm

Quoting WaywardMemphian (Reply 35):

In your zeal to attack Memphis (which is sadly common in our part of the world), I think you are reading things I did not say . . .

I'm not "attacking" Memphis. I made it clear I don't sugarcoat nothing. The facts are all out there. It's, economically speaking, not that dynamic of a market. In the world of public opinion, it leaves s lot to be desired. It's location between 3 important focus operations for WN make it less likely to see an over abundance of flights. I mean, it's below wing operations are contracted out its so small for starters.
Nashville, Tennessee KBNA
 
Cubsrule
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 9:06 pm

Quoting Lexy (Reply 37):
The facts are all out there. It's, economically speaking, not that dynamic of a market.

The facts--some cited in this thread--are that it is overpriced and underserved. Filling in some of those gaps has nothing to do with BNA or STL. No one suggested that the operation would grow as large as BNA or STL, but I don't really see the case that a 25-30 flight operation by 2020 or so is implausible.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
Lexy
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 9:27 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 38):
e facts--some cited in this thread--are that it is overpriced and underserved. Filling in some of those gaps has nothing to do with BNA or STL. No one suggested that the operation would grow as large as BNA or STL, but I don't really see the case that a 25-30 flight operation by 2020 or so is implausible.

It's possible, I guess. SDF is a great example of what the WN operation in MEM could be.
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TWA772LR
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 10:03 pm

I can see WN adding LAS and OAK -or- LAX. As well as AS from SEA with a 175.
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WaywardMemphian
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 10:42 pm

Quoting Lexy (Reply 37):

Get whom your attributing quotes to right, ok thanks .

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 40):
I can see WN adding LAS and OAK -or- LAX. As well as AS from SEA with a 175.

Those adds would be great. Spirits's new CEO's statements seem to thin you could see them there, that would be an improvement over Allegiant and actually offer up some connections. Spirit flights to Mia, Dallas and Atlanta would be interesting. I still say someone doing a bunny hop back and from STL/MEM/MSY at 3x or 4x weekly especially with the influx of mainly one way river cruising coming as Viking enters the Mississippi River market. 4 years ago there was one boat on the River after the Recession stopped it cold and come 2017 and 2018 as many 10 to 12 will be on the River.

I keep saying Disney Cruise Lines needs to enter the River Cruise Market with a Steamboat Wille/Twain/Huck Finn/Sawyer inspired paddle wheeler .
 
Cubsrule
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Fri Feb 26, 2016 11:24 pm

Quoting Lexy (Reply 39):
It's possible, I guess. SDF is a great example of what the WN operation in MEM could be.

Louisville is smaller, is less isolated and has less tourism. I have to believe that MEM has more potential than SDF.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
Lexy
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Sat Feb 27, 2016 1:49 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 42):
Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 42):
Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 42):

Quoting Lexy (Reply 37):

Get whom your attributing quotes to right, ok thanks .

Beg your pardon?

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 42):

Louisville is smaller, is less isolated and has less tourism. I have to believe that MEM has more potential than SDF.

Trust me, WN isn't all about P2P anymore. I doubt Beale Street, Graceland, and a giant Bass Pro Shop are the end all be all. Louisville isn't isolated either. IND, LEX, and CVG are all next door complete with casinos within an hours drive. The two are quite similar when you break it down.
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HPRamper
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:06 am

Quoting Lexy (Reply 43):
Trust me, WN isn't all about P2P anymore. I doubt Beale Street, Graceland, and a giant Bass Pro Shop are the end all be all. Louisville isn't isolated either. IND, LEX, and CVG are all next door complete with casinos within an hours drive. The two are quite similar when you break it down.

Memphis and Louisville are probably two of the most similar markets in the country.

Almost dead even in metro population and average income and very close in metro GDP, in addition to the obvious regional similarities.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Sat Feb 27, 2016 3:14 am

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 44):
Memphis and Louisville are probably two of the most similar markets in the country.

Almost dead even in metro population and average income and very close in metro GDP, in addition to the obvious regional similarities.

I think that's right. As I said above, the two differences as far as demand for air service are isolation (if you look at number of daily air carrier seats offered within X miles, the number is going to be a good bit bigger for SDF no matter what X you pick) and inbound tourism. Memphis is a niche destination for sure, but it is a bit of a destination in a way that Louisville isn't (although downtown Louisville really is not a bad place to spend some time).
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
IPFreely
Posts: 2630
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Sat Feb 27, 2016 3:24 am

Quoting mtnwest1979 (Reply 19):
Quoting orbital (Reply 17):
: "DeSoto County has the highest median income in Mississippi and the second highest mean income after Madison County

Is that like saying the fastest snail in the race?? LOL.

Exactly right. To quote Wikipedia, "Mississippi is the poorest state in the United States of America."

A small county in the poorest state in the nation is hardly enough to make an airport thrive. Especially when the mean income number is skewed by two wealthy residents.
 
MaxxFlyer
Posts: 456
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Sat Feb 27, 2016 5:15 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 15):
BNA's passenger numbers are now higher than they were in its hub days. Are RDU's?
Quoting Lexy (Reply 21):
You clearly don't keep up with BNA. With all due respect, BNA has never been busier than it is right now. Pushing 12 million through the doors on the way to 13 soon.

True point, but it took almost 20 years for the pax numbers to surpass when AA had it's BNA hub. Unless someone starts adding more flights, numbers should start leveling off. WN is gate constrained, and the new services by AS, B6, and F9 really aren't going to drive up numbers that much. I don't see VX, NK, or G4 coming, and that's really all that's left. Certain times of day, A and B concourses are dead.

[Edited 2016-02-26 21:20:34]
 
WaywardMemphian
Topic Author
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RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Sat Feb 27, 2016 5:33 am

Quoting IPFreely (Reply 46):

There are plenty of families in the area, especially Desoto county, that work hard and usually travel by car and once they become aware that a family of four can fly to DC for under 1,000 bucks in 3 to 6
6 hrs instead of two long, hard days on the road or 4 days with two nights in a hotel along the way, they'll start flying. My Brother, who makes well over 100,000, drove to Longboat Key for two weeks every year because the cost was just stupid to fly.......until Southwest started Tampa. They have flown 3 years in a row. When people start dissing median income they also don't take into account that the cost of living is much less in Memphis. 35,000 a year in Memphis goes much farther than 50,000 in LA. The amount and kind of house one can get for 250,000 in the Memphis area compared to areas in the Northeast is insane. 15 dollars an hr in Memphis is much more than it is in Seattle. Tourism is a varible that's not.yet close to being developed Just this afternoon, the TripleA mag in the mail touted the Americana Music Triangle which is basically a line for Memphis to NO to Nashville and all the things in between. Some really nice little music museums have recently opened up or will like the Grammy based one that opens in March in Cleveland MS. Googling stats paint an incomplete picture.
 
Lexy
Posts: 1492
Joined: Wed Jun 07, 2006 10:05 am

RE: The Rebirth Of MEM Continues

Sat Feb 27, 2016 5:39 am

Quoting WaywardMemphian (Reply 48):
True point, but it took almost 20 years for the pax numbers to surpass when AA had it's BNA hub. Unless someone starts adding more flights, numbers should start leveling off. WN is gate constrained, and the new services by AS, B6, and F9 really aren't going to drive up numbers that much. I don't see VX, NK, or G4 coming, and that's really all that's left. Certain times of day, A and B concourses are dead.

Indeed. The new terminal can't happen soon enough. I've always seen B busy because of DL's frequency. It'll pick up when B6 and WS start.
Nashville, Tennessee KBNA

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