In just over 1 hour it will be the 2 year anniversary of the end of the flight / the final ping...
|Quoting sovietjet (Reply 109):|
Problem is the CVR only has the last 2 hours, so we actually will never find out what happened in the cockpit during the initial change of flightpath...
Whilst having CVR coverage for that entire flight would be extremely useful, especially at the time near IGARI when something happened, the various parameters recorded on the FDR should be enough to provide answers. The FDR will be able to tell us if somebody was alive and making inputs and until when at least.
Anyway, here is some 'optimistic' news -(The article is quite long so I only quoted selected portions):
'MH370: head of search says 'very likely' plane will be found by July'
""Martin Dolan, head of the Australian authority scouring the Indian ocean, is confident aircraft will be located.
The man in charge of the hunt for Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 believes it is “very likely” the plane will be found in the next four months, even as the multimillion dollar search effort enters what is likely to be its final stage.
Since 31 March 2014, the Australian Transport Safety Bureau has led the search effort for the plane, driven by what its investigators have always considered to be the most likely scenario – known as the “ghost flight” theory – that no-one was at the controls when the jet went down.
The ATSB’s modelling shows that, after running out of fuel, the plane would have crashed in the southern Indian ocean, off the coast of Western Australia. As of this month, four ships have searched more than 85,000sq km of a long but narrow “seventh arc”, totalling 120,000sq km of seafloor – without success.
To Dolan, that suggests that the plane is in the 30,000-odd sq km yet to be searched, and will be found when the operation concludes around July, if not before.
“It’s as likely on the last day [of the search] as on the first that the aircraft would be there. We’ve covered nearly three-quarters of the search area, and since we haven’t found the aircraft in those areas, that increases the likelihood that it’s in the areas we haven’t looked at yet.”
At this late stage, Dolan is aware that his assurance could seem like blind optimism, or a bid to save face over a US $133.3m operation – paid for by Australia and Malaysia, plus $14.8m in funding and equipment from China – that has already been said to have failed.
The search zone – twice the size of Tasmania – shows a range of places the plane could be, some higher probability than others. “We now know that there’s a range of those places the aircraft isn’t in, but that hasn’t changed the overall probability that the aircraft is in the total search area,” Dolan said.
“To eliminate that from the search – assuming we don’t find the aircraft – we have the cover the whole area.”
Given those uncertainties, Dolan can’t be specific about when the search will be completed. But he remains optimistic. “We’ve still got some serious area to cover, including some areas in the assessment that are highly prospective for finding the aircraft, and the aircraft’s very likely there.""
"“At some point, whatever the total of the evidence is, is going to have to be assessed and a conclusion reached as to the most likely solution to the mystery,” says Dolan.""
This argument has been used before:
""""“It’s as likely on the last day [of the search] as on the first that the aircraft would be there. We’ve covered nearly three-quarters of the search area, and since we haven’t found the aircraft in those areas, that increases the likelihood that it’s in the areas we haven’t looked at yet.”""""
- The problem I have with this is that they don't know that the plane is actually anywhere in the area they are searching to begin with. If they know it's in that area, then yes, it's just as likely on the last day or the first day of the search that the plane will be found. But it's also likely that the plane is not it the area being searched so it won't be found at all.
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388