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mikeromeo5
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Sun Mar 06, 2016 6:43 pm

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 98):
If the apparent concentration of parts from the 9M-MRO is real, that raises the likelihood that our main theory that the crash location is somewhere near the so-called 7th arc could be radically wrong....


No, just take a look at the arcs next to this area...

The pings are visualized as circles. And they are crossing within that area where all the stuff was found:

http://avherald.com/h?article=4710c69b/0508&opt=0

[Edited 2016-03-06 10:43:52]

[Edited 2016-03-06 10:44:40]
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Sun Mar 06, 2016 7:47 pm

Quoting mikeromeo5 (Reply 100):
Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 98):If the apparent concentration of parts from the 9M-MRO is real, that raises the likelihood that our main theory that the crash location is somewhere near the so-called 7th arc could be radically wrong....

No, just take a look at the arcs next to this area...

The pings are visualized as circles. And they are crossing within that area where all the stuff was found:

Um, MH370 had enough fuel to travel maybe 3,000 nautical miles max after it left the Malacca Strait. This could have got it as far as the Seychelles and could explain the concentration of debris and the reported sighting at the Maldives; but in that case the "ping ring" arc lines-of-position are no where near the aircraft (except perhaps for the first one or two). The BTO arcs are difficult to dismiss, however, as controlled flights were later performed on other aircraft and the arcs proved to be accurate measurements of actual, known positions....
 
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777Jet
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Sun Mar 06, 2016 11:00 pm

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 98):
If the apparent concentration of parts from the 9M-MRO is real, that raises the likelihood that our main theory that the crash location is somewhere near the so-called 7th arc could be radically wrong....

A few parts over the still large area the pieces were supposedly found is not a concentration.

Based on Indian Ocean current charts it is very possible that the parts ended up where they were supposedly found if flight MH370 ended in the SIO area that is currently being searched - especially after 2 years of drifting!
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WingedMigrator
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Mon Mar 07, 2016 12:16 am

Quoting VirginFlyer (Reply 99):
There could also be a population density effect

There could also be widespread unfamiliarity with ocean circulation patterns, leading to a mistaken expectation that debris would wash up in Australia. Just sayin'.

https://youtu.be/PZ7yQ1u2rqw
 
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777Jet
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Mon Mar 07, 2016 12:28 am

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 103):

Hello Sir,

In follow up to our discussions in the old MH370 threads, I am wondering what odds you now give to 9M-MRO being found / the cause being determined?

You seemed very optimistic that the plane would be found and we would get answers from the black boxes whilst I had much greater doubts.

FWIW I give the current search less than a 5% chance of locating the plane.

It would not surprise me if the plane is somewhere not too far outside of the current search area boundaries or it was missed because of the sea floor terrain   

Thank you for your time.
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prebennorholm
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Mon Mar 07, 2016 12:32 am

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 101):
Um, MH370 had enough fuel to travel maybe 3,000 nautical miles max after it left the Malacca Strait. This could have got it as far as the Seychelles and could explain the concentration of debris and the reported sighting at the Maldives;

The places where debris is found almost have no relevance any longer. Any debris, which has travelled for instance at an average speed of one knot for a year, can have made 24 x 365 = 8,760 nm.

Imagine two kts and two years, and it may have travelled way further than around the world.

It will be widely spread since it is affected by both currents and wind. Depending on shape and density the various pieces will have been differently affected by wind and currents, spreading it over endless millions of square miles.

A couple of years more, and MH370 debris may in principle show up on any beach in the world.

Any new debris only tells that MH370 crashed in the sea, not on land. We already know that 100% sure after finding the flapperon last year.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
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CALTECH
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Mon Mar 07, 2016 1:34 am

Quoting washingtonflyer (Reply 86):
Oh boy....Side panel near a cheat line being composite too???
Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 94):
In which case that would be consistent with a piece of the vertical stabilizer or the rudder; that in turn would seem to support a high velocity impact?

Well, with the gray paint below the blue, that really wouldn't be the rudder but more like the wing to body fairing.........and those are fragile.....
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SEPilot
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Mon Mar 07, 2016 3:17 am

Boeing should be able to determine if the part came from a 777. If it did, there is only one 777 in the world that is unaccounted for, and that is MH370. As to getting information off the recorders, AF447 was in the ocean for a long time before it was found, and they were able to read them. I would presume that when MH370 is found that the same will be true.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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777Jet
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Mon Mar 07, 2016 7:40 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 107):
I would presume that when MH370 is found that the same will be true.

I really hope there is a 'when'...

If MH370 is found, and if the black boxes are located, and if the black boxes can be recovered, and if the black boxes aren't too badly damaged, then I would presume that the data could still likely be recovered.
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sovietjet
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Mon Mar 07, 2016 3:48 pm

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 108):
If MH370 is found, and if the black boxes are located, and if the black boxes can be recovered, and if the black boxes aren't too badly damaged, then I would presume that the data could still likely be recovered.

Problem is the CVR only has the last 2 hours, so we actually will never find out what happened in the cockpit during the initial change of flightpath... 
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Mon Mar 07, 2016 5:25 pm

Quoting CALTECH (Reply 106):
Well, with the gray paint below the blue, that really wouldn't be the rudder but more like the wing to body fairing.........and those are fragile.....

Gray paint below the blue? It looks more like white paint IMO, and about the only place where that combination is for a flat part would be the vertical stabilizer/rudder. Here are a couple of pictures:

http://i.imgur.com/wxSNQxS.jpg
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Mon Mar 07, 2016 6:17 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 93):
Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 84):The question is: Is this more consistent with a low-speed, semi-controlled ditching or with an uncontrolled, high-speed crash?
Hitting the water at any speed with a 777 has so much kinetic energy that I do not think it is reasonable to say "low speed" vs "high speed", any speed is going to be very destructive.

A recent article by Byron Bailey. It's behind a paywall, but you may be able to hack into it:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news...y/95dacd99e50cf87629040a5c82411568

Quote:
Assuming a pilot was hijacking the aircraft, attempts to hide the aircraft in as remote a location as possible would mean calculating the final leg on long-range cruise speed and optimum altitudes. These would be about 40,000 feet before an idle-engine descent with enough fuel to carry out a controlled ditching.

A normal descent profile at engine-idle for a Boeing 777 is M.83 (83 per cent of the speed of sound), transitioning to an airspeed of 310 knots, which would cover about 130 nautical miles (240km). A pilot wishing to cover a much farther distance would engine-idle “glide” at about the optimum minimum drag speed of 220 knots and cover much greater distance.

Westerly winds generally are on the beam (cross angle) of a southerly heading. Just a difference of five degrees over 5500km in the heading from the turn north of Sumatra would result in a possible longitudinal splay of 450km. This position line based on probable fuel used by a rogue pilot hijack tied in with the seventh arc would give a much more probable location for MH370 of hundreds of kilometres farther south and west of where the search originated.

A controlled ditching under power is a Boeing flight manual procedure requiring the flap down and undercarriage up at the lowest possible speed into wind of more than 40 knots and a landing just on top of or just after the primary swell. Even in a perfect ditching, in heavy seas engines may be torn off and other significant damage — especially to protruding airframe parts — may occur, but the aircraft would be substantially intact.

The pilot would not be so foolish as to wait for engine flame-out (engine failure because of lack of fuel), which is a serious emergency situation that limits flight control through reduced hydraulic power via the ram air turbine (which generates power from the airstream) and reduced electrical power to standby instruments.

The auxiliary power unit may fire up for a limited duration but could repressurise the aircraft only at 22,000 feet on the descent.

However, no flap would be available in this one-shot attempt at a ditching in those rough seas south of latitude 40 (the Roaring Forties) and the water contact at about 300km/h is essentially a crash with resultant debris.

If this theory is correct, it would mean the crash site is like two full degrees of latitude south of the final arc, probably somewhere more like in the vicinity of 41S 86E.
 
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litz
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Mon Mar 07, 2016 7:49 pm

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 111):


Quote:
(From TheAustralian article) The pilot would not be so foolish as to wait for engine flame-out (engine failure because of lack of fuel), which is a serious emergency situation that limits flight control through reduced hydraulic power via the ram air turbine (which generates power from the airstream) and reduced electrical power to standby instruments.

The auxiliary power unit may fire up for a limited duration but could repressurise the aircraft only at 22,000 feet on the descent.

If the engines flame out due to fuel starvation, you're not going to get much (if any) runtime out of the APU ...
 
AIRWALK
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Mon Mar 07, 2016 9:34 pm

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 111):
If this theory is correct, it would mean the crash site is like two full degrees of latitude south of the final arc, probably somewhere more like in the vicinity of 41S 86E.

The ATSB are not in agreement with the theory that there was any pilot intervention in the final stages of flight, nefarious or not. It is not their responsibility to consider the causes of the disappearance, but for the reasons of the search location this issue does of course become important.

Quote from ATSB updates:

Quote:
Mr Bailey’s article claims that the ATSB rejects any possibility that MH370’s disappearance was the result of a person taking control of the aircraft. For the purposes of its search, the ATSB has not needed to determine – and has made no claims – about what might have caused the disappearance of the aircraft. For search purposes, the relevant facts and analysis most closely match a scenario in which there was no pilot intervening in the latter stages of the flight.
http://www.atsb.gov.au/newsroom/correcting-the-record.aspx
I'm sure this thread will take off soon
 
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777Jet
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Mon Mar 07, 2016 10:51 pm

R.I.P. MH370...

In just over 1 hour it will be the 2 year anniversary of the end of the flight / the final ping...

Quoting sovietjet (Reply 109):
Problem is the CVR only has the last 2 hours, so we actually will never find out what happened in the cockpit during the initial change of flightpath...

Whilst having CVR coverage for that entire flight would be extremely useful, especially at the time near IGARI when something happened, the various parameters recorded on the FDR should be enough to provide answers. The FDR will be able to tell us if somebody was alive and making inputs and until when at least.


Anyway, here is some 'optimistic' news -(The article is quite long so I only quoted selected portions):


'MH370: head of search says 'very likely' plane will be found by July'

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...very-likely-plane-will-be-found-by

""Martin Dolan, head of the Australian authority scouring the Indian ocean, is confident aircraft will be located.

The man in charge of the hunt for Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 believes it is “very likely” the plane will be found in the next four months, even as the multimillion dollar search effort enters what is likely to be its final stage.

Since 31 March 2014, the Australian Transport Safety Bureau has led the search effort for the plane, driven by what its investigators have always considered to be the most likely scenario – known as the “ghost flight” theory – that no-one was at the controls when the jet went down.

The ATSB’s modelling shows that, after running out of fuel, the plane would have crashed in the southern Indian ocean, off the coast of Western Australia. As of this month, four ships have searched more than 85,000sq km of a long but narrow “seventh arc”, totalling 120,000sq km of seafloor – without success.

To Dolan, that suggests that the plane is in the 30,000-odd sq km yet to be searched, and will be found when the operation concludes around July, if not before.

“It’s as likely on the last day [of the search] as on the first that the aircraft would be there. We’ve covered nearly three-quarters of the search area, and since we haven’t found the aircraft in those areas, that increases the likelihood that it’s in the areas we haven’t looked at yet.”

At this late stage, Dolan is aware that his assurance could seem like blind optimism, or a bid to save face over a US $133.3m operation – paid for by Australia and Malaysia, plus $14.8m in funding and equipment from China – that has already been said to have failed.

The search zone – twice the size of Tasmania – shows a range of places the plane could be, some higher probability than others. “We now know that there’s a range of those places the aircraft isn’t in, but that hasn’t changed the overall probability that the aircraft is in the total search area,” Dolan said.

“To eliminate that from the search – assuming we don’t find the aircraft – we have the cover the whole area.”

Given those uncertainties, Dolan can’t be specific about when the search will be completed. But he remains optimistic. “We’ve still got some serious area to cover, including some areas in the assessment that are highly prospective for finding the aircraft, and the aircraft’s very likely there.""

"“At some point, whatever the total of the evidence is, is going to have to be assessed and a conclusion reached as to the most likely solution to the mystery,” says Dolan.""



This argument has been used before:

""""“It’s as likely on the last day [of the search] as on the first that the aircraft would be there. We’ve covered nearly three-quarters of the search area, and since we haven’t found the aircraft in those areas, that increases the likelihood that it’s in the areas we haven’t looked at yet.”""""

- The problem I have with this is that they don't know that the plane is actually anywhere in the area they are searching to begin with. If they know it's in that area, then yes, it's just as likely on the last day or the first day of the search that the plane will be found. But it's also likely that the plane is not it the area being searched so it won't be found at all.
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Moose135
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Tue Mar 08, 2016 12:06 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 114):
It’s as likely on the last day [of the search] as on the first that the aircraft would be there. We’ve covered nearly three-quarters of the search area, and since we haven’t found the aircraft in those areas, that increases the likelihood that it’s in the areas we haven’t looked at yet.

It's always in the last place you look...
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BoeingVista
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Tue Mar 08, 2016 12:32 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 114):
Martin Dolan, head of the Australian authority scouring the Indian ocean, is confident aircraft will be located.

Not unless they start looking somewhere else.
BV
 
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CALTECH
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Tue Mar 08, 2016 12:57 am

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 110):
Gray paint below the blue? It looks more like white paint IMO, and about the only place where that combination is for a flat part would be the vertical stabilizer/rudder. Here are a couple of pictures:
Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 85):

Wow! They found another part on Renuion!
http://i.imgur.com/9x8kqSm.png

http://i.imgur.com/nM6HkYO.png

Sure looks gray, not white. And if we are looking at the same part, you are not looking at the entire wing to body fairing where it is flat.

You are here.
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Tue Mar 08, 2016 2:53 am

@CALTEC: I see what you mean. When you look at the one picture of Mssr. Begue where he is comparing the part to a photo printed on paper, the paper is quite white compared to the part. Also note that the color of the blue on the part is the same as the color on the printed paper.
 
YoungMans
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Tue Mar 08, 2016 11:16 am

Quoating from the Guardian:
"The model may be perfect, but it is only as accurate as its input data." (See URL below)
End of Quote.
If they do find that aircraft by July, based on those models, it would indeed be an incredible feat.
As it says in the definition of that term, it would really be ... a product of skill, endurance and ingenuity.

Whether that other part found is white or grey cannot really be judged from a poor quality photo.
(Where does the colour 'white' end and when can it be called 'grey'?
In German there is a saying:
At night all cats are grey!)

It is important to first determine whether that part originated off 9M-MRO or not.
Once they know that, having the piece in their hands, they'll soon be pretty certain about the colour too.
And if it can be confirmed the part is off the missing aircraft, then, I'm pretty sure they would just as soon know where exactly it was fitted.


http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...very-likely-plane-will-be-found-by
 
gzm
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Tue Mar 08, 2016 3:12 pm

Are you sure that the skin of the tail is made of honeycomb material? I think it is thin aluminum...
 
frmrCapCadet
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Tue Mar 08, 2016 3:19 pm

About the only certainty in all of this is that frame and engine companies can say yes or no regarding found parts. Certainty may be less for other parts.
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WarrenPlatts
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Tue Mar 08, 2016 3:27 pm

Well, the 2nd Annual Interim Report is out now--all 2.5 pages of large-font, double-spaced fluff...

http://mh370.mot.gov.my/2nd_Interim_Statement_English.pdf
 
Gasman
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Tue Mar 08, 2016 3:35 pm

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 105):
The places where debris is found almost have no relevance any longer. Any debris, which has travelled for instance at an average speed of one knot for a year, can have made 24 x 365 = 8,760 nm.

Imagine two kts and two years, and it may have travelled way further than around the world.

It will be widely spread since it is affected by both currents and wind. Depending on shape and density the various pieces will have been differently affected by wind and currents, spreading it over endless millions of square miles.

A couple of years more, and MH370 debris may in principle show up on any beach in the world.

Any new debris only tells that MH370 crashed in the sea, not on land. We already know that 100% sure after finding the flapperon last year.

I agree. Bits of MH370 washing up on beaches provide nothing, except perhaps evidence for those that need it that the aircraft was not abducted by aliens and it didn't land.

I think the chances of finding a debris field on the ocean floor (and as such the FDR & CVR) are now approaching zero.
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Tue Mar 08, 2016 3:37 pm

Quoting gzm (Reply 120):
Are you sure that the skin of the tail is made of honeycomb material? I think it is thin aluminum...
Quoting frmrCapCadet (Reply 121):
About the only certainty in all of this is that frame and engine companies can say yes or no regarding found parts. Certainty may be less for other parts.

Here's a structural repair manual for the "HORIZONTAL STABILIZER UPPER FORWARD TORQUE BOX PANEL SKIN". It's pretty detailed down to the types of epoxy used.

https://bigroundthingsblog.files.wordpress.com/2016/03/panel-copy.pdf

[Edited 2016-03-08 07:38:46]
 
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BaconButty
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Tue Mar 08, 2016 3:50 pm

Quoting gzm (Reply 120):
Are you sure that the skin of the tail is made of honeycomb material? I think it is thin aluminum...

It looks to me like Nomex, which is used on the 777, but on the cabin floors. It's also sometimes used in Yacht construction, which is where i'd put my money. You can treat yourself to some here  http://www.fibreglast.com/product/No..._1562/Vacuum_Bagging_Sandwich_Core
Down with that sort of thing!
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Tue Mar 08, 2016 3:51 pm

Quoting gasman (Reply 123):
Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 105):The places where debris is found almost have no relevance any longer. Any debris, which has travelled for instance at an average speed of one knot for a year, can have made 24 x 365 = 8,760 nm.

Imagine two kts and two years, and it may have travelled way further than around the world.

It will be widely spread since it is affected by both currents and wind. Depending on shape and density the various pieces will have been differently affected by wind and currents, spreading it over endless millions of square miles.

A couple of years more, and MH370 debris may in principle show up on any beach in the world.

Any new debris only tells that MH370 crashed in the sea, not on land. We already know that 100% sure after finding the flapperon last year.
I agree. Bits of MH370 washing up on beaches provide nothing, except perhaps evidence for those that need it that the aircraft was not abducted by aliens and it didn't land.

Not true. Debris finds can shed light on how the final crash occurred. Number one: Was the flaperon extended or not?? That is a most important piece of information with YUGE implications for the search area: namely, the implication being there was a pilot at the controls, and we can expect the main wreckage to be up to 130 nm from the 7th arc. Similarly, if a bunch of small pieces from all over the aircraft fuselage were found, that would indicate a high-speed impact that disintegrated everything, then the main wreckage area should be within 15 nm of the 7th arc.

Quote:
I think the chances of finding a debris field on the ocean floor (and as such the FDR & CVR) are now approaching zero.

Given that the ATSB is married to the no-pilot hypothesis, and the current search area is based on that hypothesis, the odds that the main wreckage will be found within the current search area is rapidly diminishing, whereas the Bayesian odds that they're barking up the wrong tree is increasing. The question is money flow.
 
Gasman
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Tue Mar 08, 2016 4:06 pm

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 126):
Not true. Debris finds can shed light on how the final crash occurred

Sure they can, but you'd need to get very, very lucky to find that telltale piece of debris even if one exists. At the current rate of - what, 3 pieces of debris in two years?? - we're going to be waiting a rather long time.

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 126):
Given that the ATSB is married to the no-pilot hypothesis, and the current search area is based on that hypothesis, the odds that the main wreckage will be found within the current search area is rapidly diminishing, whereas the Bayesian odds that they're barking up the wrong tree is increasing.

Assuming of course, there even still is a "main wreckage".

[Edited 2016-03-08 08:08:51]
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Tue Mar 08, 2016 4:09 pm

Quoting BaconButty (Reply 125):
It looks to me like Nomex, which is used on the 777, but on the cabin floors. It's also sometimes used in Yacht construction, which is where i'd put my money. You can treat yourself to some here

That manual I linked to above states that the core material for the horizontal stabilizer skin is all aluminum honeycomb. Also, if you'll look chunks exposed on the MH17 wreckage of the vertical stabilizer, the color looks the same as that nomex stuff. Evidently, the aluminum is coated with a similar sort of phenolic coating? Anyway, the "NO STEP" marking on the Mozambique piece is pretty much a dead give-away IMHO. The 2nd Reunion piece is more ambiguous, but it seems like they ought to be able to tell from the paint, etc.
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Tue Mar 08, 2016 4:40 pm

Quoting gasman (Reply 127):
Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 126):Not true. Debris finds can shed light on how the final crash occurred

Sure they can, but you'd need to get very, very lucky to find that telltale piece of debris even if one exists.

I think the flaperon is such a telltale piece. I think it was Pihero who said it looked like the flaperon was in an extended position based on the damage to the trailing edge, but there has been zero word from the French authorities that sheds any official light on the question.

Quote:
At the current rate of - what, 3 pieces of debris in two years?? - we're going to be waiting a rather long time.

The fact that Mr. Gibson and his friends were able to find that piece within 20 minutes of starting their search tells me there's probably a lot more debris on east African and Madagascar shores that is there for the pickings of a trained beachcomber who knows what to look for.

Quote:
Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 126):Given that the ATSB is married to the no-pilot hypothesis, and the current search area is based on that hypothesis, the odds that the main wreckage will be found within the current search area is rapidly diminishing, whereas the Bayesian odds that they're barking up the wrong tree is increasing.

Assuming of course, there even still is a "main wreckage".

Well, there should at least be a recognizable debris field!





[Edited 2016-03-08 08:43:18]
 
Gasman
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Tue Mar 08, 2016 8:18 pm

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 129):
I think the flaperon is such a telltale piece. I think it was Pihero who said it looked like the flaperon was in an extended position based on the damage to the trailing edge, but there has been zero word from the French authorities that sheds any official light on the question.

So it wasn't, in fact, a telltale piece.

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 129):
The fact that Mr. Gibson and his friends were able to find that piece within 20 minutes of starting their search tells me there's probably a lot more debris on east African and Madagascar shores that is there for the pickings of a trained beachcomber who knows what to look for.

In other words there might be debris which might be found which might yield clues. Probability levels approaching one in google, and getting less every passing day.

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 129):
Well, there should at least be a recognizable debris field!

Why? If the aircraft was pretty much pulverised on hitting the water, there might *never* have been a contained debris field on the ocean floor. If there was one, it could have substantially reduced in size and definition with the passage of two years. And there is a good chance - getting greater by the day - that said debris field would tell us nothing more about why this aircraft crashed.
 
lancelot07
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Tue Mar 08, 2016 9:08 pm

Quoting gasman (Reply 130):
Why? If the aircraft was pretty much pulverised on hitting the water, there might *never* have been a contained debris field on the ocean floor.

Even if it was pretty much pulverized, it wasn't really pulverized. Some rather big parts will be fairly intact, e.g. the engines.
Some parts of the wreck will have remained in fairly sizeable and findable pieces. And those pieces, and smaller ones will tell a story, even if the FDR yields nothing.
 
Gasman
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Tue Mar 08, 2016 10:04 pm

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 131):
Even if it was pretty much pulverized, it wasn't really pulverized. Some rather big parts will be fairly intact, e.g. the engines.
Some parts of the wreck will have remained in fairly sizeable and findable pieces. And those pieces, and smaller ones will tell a story, even if the FDR yields nothing.

Maybe, but it's entirely speculation. We don't have any idea what wreckage there is, where it is, and if if will tell us how and why this aircraft went down. Given this, and the weight of circumstantial evidence suggesting foul play was involved it seems extremely unlikely that discovery of the wreckage will identify some mechanism which, if dealt with, will improve aviation safety.

Which therefore only leaves the issue of closure to the victims family. For them, the relief of finding the resting place would be priceless. How one goes about funding such a venture, I don't begin to know.
 
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777Jet
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Tue Mar 08, 2016 11:26 pm

'Comment: MH370 conspiracy likely goes all the way to the top'

http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/...AgvzBG?li=AAgfYrC&ocid=mailsignout

Selected quotes:

""There were attempted radio communications, and there is one unverified report of a mumbling response — possibly from MH370 — but actual ground-to-cockpit satellite phone calls, without using other jets as intermediaries, are inexplicably few.""

""The seeming indifference of Malaysia Airlines and the KL authorities to the disappearance on ATC screens of an airliner with 239 people onboard is perplexing to say the least. In the words of a major airline’s emergency responders, “we would have hit all the buttons until our fingertips bled”.""

""Had there been repeated, persistent sat phone calls made, even the act of their ringing out unanswered would have provided more detailed clues as to the direction and potential location of MH370 through the fraught Doppler shift analysis that was to conclude that for much of the remaining flight the 777 flew southerly, away from the trajectory it was taking when said to be last seen on military radar off the coast of southern Thailand.""

""What did Malaysia Airlines already know at that time, or was it truly indifferent and callous to the overnight loss of an airliner?"""


When going back and considering Malaysia Airlines' pathetic response to a missing aircraft it is hard not to wonder what exactly Malaysia Airlines knew at the time.

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 116):
Quoting 777Jet (Reply 114):
Martin Dolan, head of the Australian authority scouring the Indian ocean, is confident aircraft will be located.

Not unless they start looking somewhere else.

During his interview on ABC News 24 yesterday he did not look comfortable at all.

He said the three possible endings being considered are: 1) Uncontrolled ending. 2) Ditching under power. 3) Glide after fuel exhaustion.

When asked how they worked out the most probable ending, his answer was, to this effect: "evidence provided by Malaysia"

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 119):
If they do find that aircraft by July, based on those models, it would indeed be an incredible feat.
As it says in the definition of that term, it would really be ... a product of skill, endurance and ingenuity.

I do wonder if they might have already discovered wreckage on the sea floor (telltale wreckage) but are intentionally waiting until sometime after the two year anniversary, the legal claim deadline, to make the announcement to protect the interest of a particular party to this incident.

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 126):
Debris finds can shed light on how the final crash occurred. Number one: Was the flaperon extended or not?? That is a most important piece of information with YUGE implications for the search area: namely, the implication being there was a pilot at the controls, and we can expect the main wreckage to be up to 130 nm from the 7th arc.

  

Up to 130nm or so extending from either side of that very long arc depending on what altitude a glide might have occurred from, plus, I guess, any possible current drift distance from the point of impact to the sea floor.

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 129):
I think the flaperon is such a telltale piece. I think it was Pihero who said it looked like the flaperon was in an extended position based on the damage to the trailing edge, but there has been zero word from the French authorities that sheds any official light on the question.

Quite a few different sources made that observation about the flaperon.

Others suggested that it could have broken off during an uncontrolled spiral / dive.
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YoungMans
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Wed Mar 09, 2016 11:39 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 133):

'Comment: MH370 conspiracy likely goes all the way to the top'
http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/...AgvzBG?li=AAgfYrC&ocid=mailsignout
Thank you for pointing that one out ....
The article certainly raises some pertinent questions that still need to be answered.
No matter how vocal some like to brush important questions aside as 'conspiracy stuff', the authorities response (or lack of it in the early stages) and the outright mishandling of the MH370 disappearance leave a lot yet to be answered.
The article you pointed out touches on quite a few of those questions.
 
YoungMans
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Wed Mar 09, 2016 11:45 am

Quoting gasman (Reply 132):
I do wonder if they might have already discovered wreckage on the sea floor (telltale wreckage) but are intentionally waiting until sometime after the two year anniversary, the legal claim deadline, to make the announcement to protect the interest of a particular party to this incident.

One can only hope that this is not the case. It would be a conspiracy of the vilest kind.
Would the authorities in today's world be that heartless and ruthless ..!?
One would hope they are not. Or would they ....

(Sorry about this; but this comment was meant to be part of the previous reply. Something went wrong somewhere ...)
 
na
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Wed Mar 09, 2016 12:30 pm

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 133):
Quoting YoungMans (Reply 134):
The article certainly raises some pertinent questions that still need to be answered.
No matter how vocal some like to brush important questions aside as 'conspiracy stuff', the authorities response (or lack of it in the early stages) and the outright mishandling of the MH370 disappearance leave a lot yet to be answered.

Thank you. I have always wondered especially about the role of the Malaysian military that night. They just let a low flying, non-communicating airliner fly over the whole country without any reaction. The men on station were either completely incompetent, or there is more behind about what they say they know. There is no third alternative, and that is why I dont understand why there is not more pressure on them.
 
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moo
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Wed Mar 09, 2016 12:41 pm

Quote:

The UN's international civil aviation organisation (ICAO) has announced new provisions to help prevent future aircraft disappearances. The new provisions were unveiled yesterday, March 8, on the second anniversary of the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight 370 (MH370).

The amendments to the Chicago Convention, which lays down a bunch of aircraft, airspace, and airport rules for almost every member of the United Nations, are all within Annex 6 (the section that deals with the "operation of aircraft"). The three most significant tweaks are:

Aircraft must carry "autonomous distress tracking devices" that can "transmit location information at least once every minute in distress circumstances."
The cockpit voice recorder (CVR) must be able to store at least 25 hours of recording, "so that they cover all phases of flight for all types of operations."
Aircraft must be "equipped with a means to have flight recorder data recovered and made available in a timely manner."
http://arstechnica.co.uk/business/20...crees-real-time-airplane-tracking/

This is going to be interesting. Just what is "a timely manner" when you are talking about a few million square miles of ocean which averages 10,000ft or so deep?
 
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TheFlyingDisk
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Wed Mar 09, 2016 3:18 pm

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 134):
the authorities response (or lack of it in the early stages) and the outright mishandling of the MH370 disappearance leave a lot yet to be answered.

Fairly simple to answer if you know Malaysia - the Air Force either did not know that the unidentified blip was not supposed to be there and simply assumed that it's supposed to be there, or they weren't diligently monitoring and was caught with their pants down. As for the handling - well, the authorities, not used to handling such large scale disappearance/crash (remember, the deadliest air crash in Malaysian history killed 100 people in 1977) got confused and tried to save face. But a lot of the so-called mishandling are media blowups of little things.

Any other conspiracy involving the Malaysian government would be laughable as they're incapable of plotting anything complex.
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lancelot07
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Wed Mar 09, 2016 6:42 pm

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 133):
I do wonder if they might have already discovered wreckage on the sea floor (telltale wreckage) but are intentionally waiting until sometime after the two year anniversary, the legal claim deadline, to make the announcement to protect the interest of a particular party to this incident.

Why would Australia spend a lot of money to protect foreign (and not particularly friendly) interests ? Sure they could pretend some technical issue and pause the search, if it were for a specific date ?

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 134):
No matter how vocal some like to brush important questions aside as 'conspiracy stuff', the authorities response (or lack of it in the early stages) and the outright mishandling of the MH370 disappearance leave a lot yet to be answered.

Malaysian military and civilian staff on the ground was obviously highly incompetent that night - so far no conspiracy involved.
 
oxymorph
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Wed Mar 09, 2016 8:30 pm

Quoting TheFlyingDisk (Reply 138):
Any other conspiracy involving the Malaysian government would be laughable as they're incapable of plotting anything complex.

If what you say is true (which it is not), then one must believe that Malaysia has/had not an inkling as to what transgressed on the night of March 7th/8th. Or, in plainer language, that the PIC Zaharie committed an act of rebellion against the ruling party.

The Hishammuddin 4 corners interview, coupled with the virtual non-response in REAL TIME of MAS ops (not to mention the Cambodia fiction) makes it clear that this was anything but incompetence or 'sleeping on the job' on behalf of the Malaysians.

The silence and deception from MAS ops that morning tells the real story...that higher ups were orchestrating the response as events unfolded, in real time, with an understanding of the situation they were facing.

The snake Hishammuddin had a very busy evening indeed.
 
frmrCapCadet
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Wed Mar 09, 2016 10:31 pm

Did Australia have treaty obligations to do the searching based on the likely crash site?
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TheFlyingDisk
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Wed Mar 09, 2016 10:41 pm

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 140):
If what you say is true (which it is not), then one must believe that Malaysia has/had not an inkling as to what transgressed on the night of March 7th/8th. Or, in plainer language, that the PIC Zaharie committed an act of rebellion against the ruling party.

The Hishammuddin 4 corners interview, coupled with the virtual non-response in REAL TIME of MAS ops (not to mention the Cambodia fiction) makes it clear that this was anything but incompetence or 'sleeping on the job' on behalf of the Malaysians.

The silence and deception from MAS ops that morning tells the real story...that higher ups were orchestrating the response as events unfolded, in real time, with an understanding of the situation they were facing.

The snake Hishammuddin had a very busy evening indeed.

*Yawn* - unfortunately you've been watching too many conspiracy movies. That theory has been beaten to death ages ago.
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Pohakuloa
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Wed Mar 09, 2016 10:45 pm

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 133):

hey 777Jetmy long awaited theory doesnt seem so far fetched now. Not trying to prove it, trust me, but at least my train of thought 2 years back (though shared with you in the threads about a year ago) wasnt as crazy as I ahad initially thought. even oxymorph seems to have cued in on it though completely indirect of my posts (obviously, i tend to stand alone)

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 140):
.......then one must believe that Malaysia has/had not an inkling as to what transgressed on the night of March 7th/8th. Or, in plainer language, that the PIC Zaharie committed an act of rebellion against the ruling party.
Fast cars and 'Jet A' - such a sweet smell!
 
oxymorph
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Wed Mar 09, 2016 11:54 pm

Quoting TheFlyingDisk (Reply 142):
*Yawn* - unfortunately you've been watching too many conspiracy movies. That theory has been beaten to death ages ago.

And just how many kilometers away from the MOD Hishammudin's office do you reside? 40k if my memory serves me correctly.

Again, if what you say is true, then Hishammuddin lied about EVERYTHING that took place that evening. That the a/c was identified, that they KNEW it originated from Malay airspace, that they KNEW it was friendly. Strange how it is they knew so much about this supposedly unidentified aircraft.

But as Hishammudin says, and you concur " I mean, do you really believe that Malaysia can hide anything". Hilarious.

Sleepy backwater this country of Malaysia is. "Yawn".
 
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777Jet
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Thu Mar 10, 2016 2:11 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 133):
I do wonder if they might have already discovered wreckage on the sea floor (telltale wreckage) but are intentionally waiting until sometime after the two year anniversary, the legal claim deadline, to make the announcement to protect the interest of a particular party to this incident.
Quoting YoungMans (Reply 135):
One can only hope that this is not the case. It would be a conspiracy of the vilest kind.
Would the authorities in today's world be that heartless and ruthless ..!?
One would hope they are not. Or would they ....

Just delaying the release of information to the public, especially if ordered from the people at the top (we do know Malaysia is really running the show), is not "a conspiracy of the vilest kind."

It's not even much of a conspiracy when you consider that they way this has been handled from the beginning seems to be underpinned by protecting Malaysia's interests.

It is much more of a conspiracy to suggest that governments have been spoofing and making up false data than to just suggests that there is the possibility that there is an intentional delay in the release information to the public.

Quoting na (Reply 136):
Thank you. I have always wondered especially about the role of the Malaysian military that night. They just let a low flying, non-communicating airliner fly over the whole country without any reaction. The men on station were either completely incompetent, or there is more behind about what they say they know. There is no third alternative, and that is why I dont understand why there is not more pressure on them.

Here is one excuse:

Quoting TheFlyingDisk (Reply 138):
Fairly simple to answer if you know Malaysia - the Air Force either did not know that the unidentified blip was not supposed to be there and simply assumed that it's supposed to be there, or they weren't diligently monitoring and was caught with their pants down.

Didn't Hishammuddin say something to the effect of: "It's not wartime so there was no need to consider the radar blip suspicious / hostile".

In other words; 'we are not at war so who cares what the radar blip is - it's not a threat'...

Then when asked about shooting down commercial aircraft he replied; 'the Americans would'...

Quoting TheFlyingDisk (Reply 138):
But a lot of the so-called mishandling are media blowups of little things.

LOL x infinity...

The mishandling contributed to the vanishing act a 777 carrying 239 SOB.

It's a shame Malaysia couldn't get the "little things" right because if they did, a fighter jet might have been able to see 9M-MRO and we would have a lot more answers than we do now...

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 139):
Why would Australia spend a lot of money to protect foreign (and not particularly friendly) interests ? Sure they could pretend some technical issue and pause the search, if it were for a specific date ?

There must be a reason given that Australia is still funding a search that it has no obligation to fund anymore (Australia's obligation to search and rescue based on the area ended when the search and rescue phases ended a long time ago).

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 140):
The snake Hishammuddin

  

Quoting frmrCapCadet (Reply 141):
Did Australia have treaty obligations to do the searching based on the likely crash site?

Australia had search and *rescue* obligations because the area being considered falls under Australia's search and rescue zone. However, once the plane was officially declared lost the official search and rescue operation automatically ended with Australia's obligations. Australia has no obligation to fund the search and *recovery* for another countries lost property.

Quoting Pohakuloa (Reply 143):
hey 777Jetmy long awaited theory doesnt seem so far fetched now. Not trying to prove it, trust me, but at least my train of thought 2 years back (though shared with you in the threads about a year ago) wasnt as crazy as I ahad initially thought. even oxymorph seems to have cued in on it though completely indirect of my posts (obviously, i tend to stand alone)

You do realize that the same scenario had already been discussed and favoured by some in the threads long before you mentioned it?
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oxymorph
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Thu Mar 10, 2016 5:11 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 145):
It's a shame Malaysia couldn't get the "little things" right because if they did, a fighter jet might have been able to see 9M-MRO and we would have a lot more answers than we do now...

They (ie. Hishammuddin) made a deliberate decision while events were unfolding to deviate from SOP and NOT scramble fighters. He makes this VERY clear in the 4 corners interview.

Malaysia has very calculatingly and methodically decided that the lesser of two evils (incompetence, situational awareness) is the preferable narrative in which to explain away the may oddities and peculiarities of that morning. This narrative is demonstrably false.

You see, the alternative, which is that they knew it was MH370, AND THEREFORE Zaharie, is potentially damning to a degree that would risk the ruling party being thrown out of power. Yes, the consequences of the truth in this matter would be potentially this grave.

Does one really believe that when a plane goes dark precisely at handoff, with PIC Zaharie driving, hours after the Anwar event, that MAS ops wouldn't put the pieces of the puzzle together? They clearly did, and their actions (or lack thereof) buttress this notion unimpeachably. As does everything else Malaysia has thus far failed to do.
 
YoungMans
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Thu Mar 10, 2016 7:22 am

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 146):
Does one really believe that when a plane goes dark precisely at handoff, with PIC Zaharie driving, hours after the Anwar event, that MAS ops wouldn't put the pieces of the puzzle together? They clearly did, and their actions (or lack thereof) buttress this notion unimpeachably. As does everything else Malaysia has thus far failed to do.

For all I (and many others) know, what you say may well be correct.
What it implies is that we are looking at the possibility of a conspiracy, if not a serious one.
What the authorities of Malaysia did or failed to do in the immediate aftermath of MH370's disappearance is one thing.
In this day and age, though, airline travel is international. No one country is alone in it; whatever one country does is almost automatically known to many other countries, I should think anyway.
And it has to be, otherwise we could not have the necessary coordination and cooperation.

So whatever happened to MH370 that night was not just known to the authorities in Malaysia; it must have also been known to many other countries, i.e. to their authorities.
There were reports that one country would have had information but wasn't asked. Which is unbelievable ....
Then there is the excuse of not wanting to divulge military capabilities; again, in this day and age that is hogwash!

Was it, from the Malaysian side, purely a concern by the ruling party, feeling threatened that they might be turfed out?
If that is the case, then, why not did all the other countries, that must have known (and still know) what went on, make these things public, ask pertinent questions?
If those other countries kept deliberately quiet, we have a conspiracy!

Or is it that something else altogether happened and none of the countries 'In-the-Know' want the general public to get wind of what that is or was. It, too, would be a conspiracy.
Because it would take the premise that the general public, the airline customers, have no (real) need to know.

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 145):
Just delaying the release of information to the public, especially if ordered from the people at the top (we do know Malaysia is really running the show), is not "a conspiracy of the vilest kind."

Yes, I agree, ruthless business considerations may not necessarily be the 'vilest' conspiracies, but they are still conspiracies none the less, whichever way you look at it.

Managers (authorities) in some glass castle somewhere have made deliberate decisions, conspired to prevent the travelling public to receive what would be fair compensation in anyone's language.
And again, the authorities from other countries would know about this, including Australia. It all stinks .....

Because what it means, if anything like that is true, various authorities 'In-the-Know' have made the deliberate decision to hold off with their knowledge of what happened until the two years have expired.
If that was true, it would be a serious conspiracy.
 
CaliAtenza
Posts: 1686
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Thu Mar 10, 2016 7:42 am

Quoting TheFlyingDisk (Reply 138):
Fairly simple to answer if you know Malaysia - the Air Force either did not know that the unidentified blip was not supposed to be there and simply assumed that it's supposed to be there, or they weren't diligently monitoring and was caught with their pants down. As for the handling - well, the authorities, not used to handling such large scale disappearance/crash (remember, the deadliest air crash in Malaysian history killed 100 people in 1977) got confused and tried to save face. But a lot of the so-called mishandling are media blowups of little things.

Any other conspiracy involving the Malaysian government would be laughable as they're incapable of plotting anything complex.

Is the Malaysian Air Force really that incompetent?
 
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TheFlyingDisk
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RE: News: Possible MH370 Part Found Near Mozambique

Thu Mar 10, 2016 10:20 am

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 146):
You see, the alternative, which is that they knew it was MH370, AND THEREFORE Zaharie, is potentially damning to a degree that would risk the ruling party being thrown out of power. Yes, the consequences of the truth in this matter would be potentially this grave.

We've been through this for I don't know how many threads over the past year.

You know nothing about Malaysian politics. IF Zaharie had maliciously intended to murder 238 people to make a statement against the government, his connection to Anwar would give the Malaysian government a bat to pummel Anwar & his cronies into the ground once and for all thus further STRENGTHENING THEIR POWER! Instead they didn't even make use of that connection to really stick it to Anwar, which I'm pretty sure they're ruing it now.

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 146):
Does one really believe that when a plane goes dark precisely at handoff, with PIC Zaharie driving, hours after the Anwar event, that MAS ops wouldn't put the pieces of the puzzle together? They clearly did, and their actions (or lack thereof) buttress this notion unimpeachably. As does everything else Malaysia has thus far failed to do.

Nope, they were really in the dark as to what had happened.

Quoting CaliAtenza (Reply 148):
Is the Malaysian Air Force really that incompetent?

I wouldn't say they're totally incompetent, but rather that they're complacent. The last time Malaysia had to fend of a sneak attack from the air was during the 1960s "Konfrontasi" conflict between Indonesia under President Sukarno. All threats towards the nation are internal hence the Army & Navy is far more involved with it than the Air Force.

Sure they practice & practice, but here's the thing with Malaysians (especially government agencies) - when things don't go by the book, it will take some for them to make sense of what's happening.
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