|Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 84):|
Problem with that being the max is gonna really struggle to take another engine (assuming ever increasing fan diameter and bypass ratio for improved sfc).
Boeing need to re-baseline their single aisle. Yes, its going to cost in the short term, but it's something they need to do* to avoid future market irrelevance.
And this is the issue I have with a "Mad-MAX" idea. It won't do what the 757 did and it probably wouldn't do what the A321neo or possible A322 could do.
It would be inferior right off the bat.
And then 8-10 years from now, we're going to be having this same discussion when Boeing really needs a new aircraft after having spent $10B or so developing the Mad-MAX, and would have to spend another $15B or so to develop a new type.
The only Boeing narrowbody product that may be selling "well" at that time would be the MAX 8, but in that time frame, Airbus' narrowbody market share would have increased from roughly 60% to 80% (an educated guess), because here within 5-7 years, those first NGs might actually be looked at for replacement. What are they going to be replaced with?
Nevertheless, the MAX 8 is a solid product for the time being, so at least Boeing has that going for them.
A cleansheet 757 size aircraft is indeed an expensive prospect, there's no denying that. However, a 737 "Mad-MAX" is going to cost more in the long run.
You'll have a brand new, competitive frame that'll likely get more or less 1500 orders throughout it's life, that could then be derived into a 737 replacement 8-10 years from now, when some technology has matured further to be 20-30% more efficient than the MAX (again, an educated guess.)
So Boeing better make some good decisions. The A320neo is ahead, pricing of the A330neo could be attractive over the 787 and Leahy will not shut up about how much better the A350 is over the 777/777X, ESPECIALLY if Airbus launches the A350-8000, which is a concept that I think is starting to be taken rather seriously in the market now!
In an article written a few weeks ago about the MoM, it was stated is that the A321neo has filled a bit of the market the MoM would supposedly fill, but not all of it. What if the MoM were a little bigger than the 757-200?
[Edited 2016-03-14 22:00:02]