ZeeZoo
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Is There A Market For SST?

Sun Mar 06, 2016 2:54 pm

Is there a market for supersonic travel/transport?

With the Aerion AS2 gaining traction and news of NASA pursuing SST, is there a viable market for SST?

I don't see why not. The Concorde fared quite well for British Airways and that was in the age of phones, emails and during video link ups too. The only thing that I can see that has changed is that that market has actually become bigger with all the arising middle class in the BrazilRussiaIndiaChina nations as well as the boost in the number of millionaires/billionaires across the globe, in those aforementioned nations as well as the Gulf states. It's not just a matter of convenience but of prestige and glamour too.

So I'm not asking about environmental impacts or technological limitations but if someone had the balls to go for SST, do you feel that the market is big enough?
 
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Sun Mar 06, 2016 3:09 pm

Quoting ZeeZoo (Thread starter):
So I'm not asking about environmental impacts or technological limitations but if someone had the balls to go for SST, do you feel that the market is big enough?

Perhaps Aerion AS2 will be able to make SST acceptable again, then we might see commercial SST for the rest of us.
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Sun Mar 06, 2016 3:21 pm

I believe I have posted this in some other thread before, but in my opinion you can achieve the same effects of supersonic intercontinental travel if you just cut all the dead time out of regular intercontinental travel.

What if there was a regular 737 flight between London and New York that left a minute or two after you entered the airport door. All that it takes is a lot of planning and logistics.

Imagine a short train that leaves the city center or some other easy to reach place. It takes you to the airport at a very high speed. During the train ride you do all of the checking-in, security screening and immigration. The train stops at the airport, right next to the plane. The plane starts taxiing the minute everyone is on board, while everyone is still walking through the aisle and finding the seat (trains do the same). Then takes off and flies to New York in a straight line and lands in New York without any long approach patterns.

You'll be as fast as a supersonic flight, but at a fraction of the cost.

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PatrickZ80
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Sun Mar 06, 2016 3:29 pm

I don't think the market would be big enough. Why not? The key word is money. Technically it would certainly be possible, but it wouldn't be profitable. SST flights would be far more expensive than regular flights, and for most people that's just not worth the money.

Indeed there is a growing middle class in developing countries, but for flying SST you don't need a middle class. It would be so expensive that it would be for the upper class only. The middle class would stick to regular air travel.

Another aspect is that in most cases flying SST would hardly save you any time. Of course it would on O/D flights, but the SST would only fly between the big cities wich means mostly you need a feeder flight to the airport where the SST would depart from. Making a transfer takes time and feeder flights wouldn't be SST flights.

Let's make an example. I want to travel AMS-JFK. There's no SST flight on this route, but there is one on the LHR-JFK route. This means I first have to take a feeder flight AMS-LHR wich takes about an hour. Then I have to transfer at LHR, perhaps even change terminal. Let's say this takes 2 hours. Then I'd take the SST flight LHR-JFK taking 2 hours. In total this trip would take me 5 hours. On the other hand I can take a direct non-SST AMS-JFK flight wich would take 6 hours, so flying SST would only save me one hour. For that one hour time saving I'd pay perhaps 10 times as much. That's not worth it.
 
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Sun Mar 06, 2016 4:28 pm

Quoting Birdwatching (Reply 2):
I believe I have posted this in some other thread before, but in my opinion you can achieve the same effects of supersonic intercontinental travel if you just cut all the dead time out of regular intercontinental travel.
Quoting PatrickZ80 (Reply 3):
For that one hour time saving I'd pay perhaps 10 times as much. That's not worth it.

That's why Aerion AS2 is a good starting point. The 1%ers (or more likely, 0.01%ers) already don't wait in lines at terminals and need to be routed via hubs, they get a quick wanding and then board their Global Express or Gulfstream and then they're on their way. The Aerion AS2 will be a supersonic version of that experience, and at $120M per aircraft it'll be the 0.01%ers who will be on them.
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Sun Mar 06, 2016 4:33 pm

Quoting ZeeZoo (Thread starter):
With the Aerion AS2 gaining traction and news of NASA pursuing SST, is there a viable market for SST?

I do not believe so until they solve the sonic boom issue to allow overland travel. And even then, I believe they would struggle to find the customers (see below).



Quoting ZeeZoo (Thread starter):
I don't see why not. The Concorde fared quite well for British Airways and that was in the age of phones, emails and during video link ups too.

Concorde worked because of the financial industry, who could literally afford to commute daily between New York and London on her like others commute daily by train or bus. A senior manager at British Airways noted that they lost over half their regular customers when the two World Trade Center towers went down on 11 September 2001. And even if that event had never happened, the Global Financial Crisis likely would have been the end of service.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Sun Mar 06, 2016 4:50 pm

There needs to be a lower cost business jet. I've seen projects with Mach 1.3 business jets using older (stored) engines that could be viable. At the costs for the NASA project or the Aeon... I have my doubts.

If there was that much demand for a high cost business jet, the 777 BBJ would have sold better than it has. Instead it has been the Global Express, Gulfstreams, and to a lesser extent Falcons.

Quoting Birdwatching (Reply 2):

I believe I have posted this in some other thread before, but in my opinion you can achieve the same effects of supersonic intercontinental travel if you just cut all the dead time out of regular intercontinental travel.

What if there was a regular 737 flight between London and New York that left a minute or two after you entered the airport door. All that it takes is a lot of planning and logistics.

That is called a business jet. It is why Gulfstream does so well as business leaders get to the airport and when they're on the plane they fly. Not only that, instead of flying Mach 0.78 to Mach 0.85, they'll crank up the G650 to Mach 0.90.

I believe this is why we're seeing so much business jet development. Currently in development:
Global express 7000/8000 (faster global express with more range)
Gulfstream G500/G600 (faster replacement for the G550/G450 despite Gulfstream marketing otherwise...)
Gulfstream P42 #3. A much faster G450 replacement (I think the G450 will be out of production prior to EIS of this PW812 powered airframe)
Falcon 5X Fast and luxurious TATL
Falcon 9X Fast long range to compete at the top end (8X is a placeholder to keep the line going until this plane hits service)
Cessna Hemisphere This will displace the Falcon 2000 as the low cost TATL airframe
Embraer? Embraer has requested bids from SAFRAN and Pratt for a new business jet...   


Business jet sales show the concern for speed. The faster business jets are holding onto their sales.
But we also see evidence of the need for shorter range speed. e.g., the strong sales of the Challenger 350. Although the similar speed Challenger 650's sales are slowing (I believe as its customers are going up-market to faster/longer range planes).

There are now enough long range business jets in the global fleet that their impact cannot be ignored.

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Amiga500
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Sun Mar 06, 2016 5:55 pm

Quoting ZeeZoo (Thread starter):
Is there a market for supersonic travel/transport?

Using todays (and tomorrow's envisaged) technology, only in the bizjet area.


In the long term future, if you can fly London Sydney in a couple of hours while costing no more than double the 20 hr fare, then yes, it might make it on regular private travel.
 
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caoimhin
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Sun Mar 06, 2016 6:31 pm

One member on the last SST forum pointed out that technological advances in telecommunications (I believe the quote was, "in the age of WhatsApp, Skype, etc."), the need for SST may not be the same as it was decades ago. Much time-sensitive business is conducted digitally. In my own industry, this is certainly the case, and security is "good enough" in most cases for even sensitive transactional details.

Occasionally, something requires heightened security--that is, face to face. But these cases are not the norm, and when they do occur, they are seldom abetted in any meaningful way by even a 4 hour reduction in flight time.

Another issue concerns SST efficiency. With the EU ETS (of which aviation has is a large target), and ICAO set to establish standards on CO2 emissions for commercial transport to be adopted and enforced by the US EPA, engine technology and fuel burn efficiency is a major political issue. Whether you support carbon reduction initiatives or not, this is the direction of international public policy. Particularly in the EU, and increasingly in the US.

The only markets that seem to have been granted a reprieve (after significant protest) are "developing countries" like China, which of course threatened to scrap almost 9 billion USD in Airbus orders if ETS was imposed on them. That said, I wonder if, notwithstanding the points in the first paragraph, there may be a market for transpacific SST.
 
Burkhard
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Sun Mar 06, 2016 8:50 pm

There is increasing pressure to reduce noise, pollution including carbon footprint.

I heavily doubt that the public will be willing to accept the current level of noise and pollution in a decade or three.

Aviation will become green - or it will be a thing of the past. (This is where virtual reality comes in as alternative)

That is why the answer to the OP question is simple:

NO
 
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Sun Mar 06, 2016 10:05 pm

I believe we will up gauge a lot of flights before we upgrade the speed. The other point about airport logistics (perhaps including pod cars) is a good one. Imagine if you can take a pod car from Manhattan to JFK in a reliable 15 minutes. all traffic jams gone, at least from autonomous lanes. Then imagine the security being improved from 60 minutes to 3 minutes. 2 hours have been saved. (Maybe three). In London, pod cars again save you an hour. Now you have saved four hours with almost no energy consumption.

The ability to carry 500 in a 777 or 800 in a stretch A380 will be how the growth in air travel will be managed circa 2030, imo. It will be cheaper and faster for all.

Way out on the horizon, we might have autonomous personal jets. That means no waiting for a flight; you just go when it fits your schedule -- saving even more time.
 
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Sun Mar 06, 2016 10:27 pm

Quoting Birdwatching (Reply 2):
I believe I have posted this in some other thread before, but in my opinion you can achieve the same effects of supersonic intercontinental travel if you just cut all the dead time out of regular intercontinental travel.

What if there was a regular 737 flight between London and New York that left a minute or two after you entered the airport door. All that it takes is a lot of planning and logistics.

Good point, the SST would be an expensive way to pull a few hours out of the total.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 6):
If there was that much demand for a high cost business jet, the 777 BBJ would have sold better than it has. Instead it has been the Global Express, Gulfstreams, and to a lesser extent Falcons.

I think a lot of it is size as well, a big 777 forces you to use the same big airports that airliners do, so you can't go to many of the smaller fields.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 6):
That is called a business jet. It is why Gulfstream does so well as business leaders get to the airport and when they're on the plane they fly. Not only that, instead of flying Mach 0.78 to Mach 0.85, they'll crank up the G650 to Mach 0.90.

I read somewhere that a Gulfstream is about the same door-to-door time as Concorde because of the reduced dead time.
 
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Mon Mar 07, 2016 12:39 am

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 11):
I read somewhere that a Gulfstream is about the same door-to-door time as Concorde because of the reduced dead time.

I've read that too. Smaller airports, flying when the passenger wants...

Not the same market as when Concorde flew.

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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Mon Mar 07, 2016 12:51 am

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 9):
Aviation will become green - or it will be a thing of the past. (This is where virtual reality comes in as alternative)

Hardly. Virtual reality isn't going to get you to grandma's for Christmas, or get your packages to places overnight.

The only thing that's going to replace air/space travel... would be teleportation.
Good luck with that, in our lifetimes.
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caoimhin
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Mon Mar 07, 2016 1:21 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 13):

I agree with you about there being no good alternative. However, aviation and shipping have been a thorn in the side of environmental agencies since Kyoto. Despite that protocol granting ICAO the mandate to reduce carbon emissions, the EU moved forward with aviation ETS anyway, because they felt ICAO dropped the ball.

Obviously aviation and shipping aren't going anywhere. But there are going to be increasingly draconian restrictions on fuel burn in the next twenty years that will try to nudge manufacturers toward more efficient technologies. I think 2% fuel burn reduction per year after 2020 was one stated goal. This goal has been interpreted by some as applying to the generation of aircraft slated for EIS after 2024--so, the generation after 777X.

Of note, an article in Aviation Week (I believe in September 2015--can't recall the week) said that as a general matter, engine efficiency is not achieving levels that are theoretically possible if stronger regulation mandated strict requirements. The author described efficiency regulation "following technology" rather than "leading technology". The author of the article argued that the latter was necessary to provide adequate incentive for manufacturers to make necessary investments in the most efficient designs. Market forces alone, he said, were insufficient.

I'll try to find the author's name and week of publication if anyone is interested in dissecting his argument. It's a quick and interesting read.

Long story short, SST will have to make some significant advances in efficiency if it is to operate in an environment of increasingly demanding emissions standards.
 
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Mon Mar 07, 2016 2:05 am

I guess that political or legal limitations are going to be bigger than technological or even economic, because there will be limitations to fly supersonic over cities as well as happened to Concorde
 
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Mon Mar 07, 2016 3:50 am

Quoting ZeeZoo (Thread starter):
The Concorde fared quite well for British Airways....

I don't deny that, but let's have a look at some aspects if we delete "for British Airways", and take a greater look at the Concorde.

Development cost paid by taxpayers £1.3bn in 1960'es/70'es - converted into 2016 money we can assume at least $30bn which were never paid back. 14 Concordes transported roughly 5 million one way passenger. 30bn divided by 5 million = 6,000. Tax payers subsidized every single one way Concorde ticket with $6,000.

14 Concordes flew roughly 200,000 revenue hours in 27 years. That means that 14 Concordes sat some 3.2 million hours on the ground. Had they been utilized as most long range planes are today, and had the demand been evenly spread, then two planes would have been enough, one for BA and one for AF.
Quoting ZeeZoo (Thread starter):
Is there a market for supersonic travel/transport?

That question is impossible to answer until we have a price for a ticket. Even if the market isn't considered price sensitive, then sure the market volume will be different whether the one way TATL ticket costs $2,000 or 8,000.

We have no idea about the price. The only thing we know is that any future SST will be very different than the Concorde, or it won't have a chance in the present day political and environmental environment. Different, yes, but how to make it, we haven't got a clue.
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Mon Mar 07, 2016 4:01 am

I definitely think this coming back for Biz Jets which are near .90 as stated. My thinking has always been that the boom issue overland is solvable. It requires a combination of right aircraft design, higher altitude flight and boom corridors over land and sea where planes can go supersonic. That's all doable. Recall the Concorde wasn't really designed to minimize its sonic boom.

The F22 and other fighters can supecruise between Mach 1.4 - 1.88 so I don't see why a commercial AC couldn't either. I don't think anything beyond that speed is likely because it will require reheat and that ups the fuel demand by 50% right off the bat.

I don't think we'll see Mach 3 as there is simply too much heat on the skin of the airframe which requires Titanium use as on the SR-71. You may recall though, as the SR-71 reached proper altitude, speed and heat, its fuel consumption went DOWN not up. It's engines had a ramjet effect and a pure ramjet would operate efficiently at Machs 3-7.

Quoting caoimhin (Reply 14):
Despite that protocol granting ICAO the mandate to reduce carbon emissions

Emissions aren't a large percentage from aviation. You never know though, we might get Fusion power in 20 years and that might make processing Titanium, Carbon and Hydrogen dirt cheap.

If you could produce materials that are heat resistant, strong, flexible and are dirt cheap it would change the equation completely.

A super efficient engine and/or super cheap fuel would change things dramatically too. If we could produce cheap electricity, then cheap metals and hydrogen are there are for the taking as well. Alot of what is possible even today is just too cost prohibitive for capitalism.
 
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Mon Mar 07, 2016 12:11 pm

Quoting Birdwatching (Reply 2):
I believe I have posted this in some other thread before, but in my opinion you can achieve the same effects of supersonic intercontinental travel if you just cut all the dead time out of regular intercontinental travel.

You mean, implement advanced ATC systems across the board, eliminate the post 9-11 security theater, and invest in infrastructure? No way, much easier to build a SST  
Quoting Flighty (Reply 10):
The other point about airport logistics (perhaps including pod cars) is a good one. Imagine if you can take a pod car from Manhattan to JFK in a reliable 15 minutes. all traffic jams gone, at least from autonomous lanes.

You can do that today with existing means and the appropriate infrastructure investment, no need for pod cars, which are just a hype created by tech companies but will do little if anything to improve mobility in the real world.
 
DrColenzo
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Mon Mar 07, 2016 12:45 pm

Quoting ZeeZoo (Thread starter):
I don't see why not. The Concorde fared quite well for British Airways and that was in the age of phones, emails and during video link ups too. The only thing that I can see that has changed is that that market has actually become bigger with all the arising middle class in the BrazilRussiaIndiaChina nations as well as the boost in the number of millionaires/billionaires across the globe, in those aforementioned nations as well as the Gulf states. It's not just a matter of convenience but of prestige and glamour too.

As an economics prof in this field, I see why not. Firstly, because these plutocrats in Russia are few in number and will fizzle out and also it is...

Quoting PatrickZ80 (Reply 3):

I don't think the market would be big enough. Why not? The key word is money. Technically it would certainly be possible, but it wouldn't be profitable. SST flights would be far more expensive than regular flights, and for most people that's just not worth the money.

And also....

Quoting ferminbrif (Reply 15):

I guess that political or legal limitations are going to be bigger than technological or even economic, because there will be limitations to fly supersonic over cities as well as happened to Concorde

Okay, let's say we focus on the business and first class market.

There are three costs, purchase, maintenance and fuel, with fuel being the biggest one but the other two will be higher than a conventional aircraft. All three will be higher than a normal aircraft.

Now, push the plutocrats from middle income nations and focus on the only market that will matter, first and business class and so the only ticket prices that will matter, again first and business class. That is around 115 seats on an A380, 84 on a 747 and around 70 on a 777. So, the ticket prices would have to be around the same level to be competitive as again, the very rich are few and these seats are being paid for by cost concious corporations - in the age of the internet speed across the Atlantic or between London and Tokyo for example is the not the issue it was in the 1980s.

To do this, for a single airframe type would require engines that are significantly more efficient than those available today, an airframe in advance of that on Concorde in terms of materials, longevity and weight and a vastly improved range. Also, it will have to be quieter than predecessors and need a lot less maintenance.

Which will cost $ billions to develop for a small customer segment for a small number of aircraft - that's why not, common business and economic sense.

Remember that Concorde was not funded by a private company, it was funded by the British and French governments against all market trends!!!!!!!

(Although I concede a future for the supersonic business jet)
 
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Mon Mar 07, 2016 1:55 pm

Unanswerable question until we know what kind of range, economics, and load it has.

The Concorde really wasn't terribly inefficient at cruise - the higher fuel burn was offset by shorter flight time. But the need to use afterburners to get off the ground and the jump to hyperspace, er supersonic affected both fuel efficiency and range. If you could increase SST range to something that could do pacific routes I think you would have a lot more options for it. It would probably only serve a handful of cities, but certainly would be viable as most of the routes would be, or could be, done over either the ocean or large sections of very sparsely populated Russia. But you would need both the higher speed (over Mach 2) and the range for those routes. You would also probably need an aircraft that could function at cold temperatures (for instance operating out of Fairbanks or some northern Siberian airport). At those kind of lengths the savings in flight time is significant.

As for the need for Supersonic travel, I think we are changing. People are slowly learning the shortcomings of digital vs human contact. And the shift now is not just getting from point a to point b when you want, there is also a strong interest in spending as little time aboard the aircraft as possible. Of course it all depend on who you market to. The reason Concorde tickets were so high was that that was what the airlines found they could charge. They decided to charge really high prices with the idea that they could attract those high fares by offering frequency and marketing to the rush crowd. the Concorde was about the size of a large regional jet, it really did not take a large number of people to fill it.
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caoimhin
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Mon Mar 07, 2016 2:38 pm

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 17):
Emissions aren't a large percentage from aviation.

I respectfully disagree. There are sources that predict a 270% growth in aviation by 2050. At this rate, it would account for 22% of all global CO2 emissions by that date. [1]

Because shipping and aviation have been explicitly left out of Kyoto and Paris, they haven't seen the reductions that other sectors have. And, as aviation has been growing (and is projected to continue growing) rapidly, there is expected to be such an increase in emissions from aviation that it would offset the efficiency gains achieved in other areas.

In any event, commercial SST is a tough sell in an political environment that has set GHG reductions as a top priority.

Do note, however, that military aircraft and some others are exempt from the EU ETS.

[1] https://europa.d66.nl/agenda/pariss-left-luggage-aviation-emissions-after-the-climate-deal/

[Edited 2016-03-07 06:40:44]
 
DrColenzo
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Mon Mar 07, 2016 3:25 pm

Quoting caoimhin (Reply 21):
Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 17):
Emissions aren't a large percentage from aviation.

I respectfully disagree. There are sources that predict a 270% growth in aviation by 2050. At this rate, it would account for 22% of all global CO2 emissions by that date. [1]

You both have a point, emissions from aviation are not as significant as those from power stations and shipping but they will grow to a larger proportion. However, that is only if engine emissions and fuel consumption remains the same and that is one area at least that has been on a downward trend over the past 50 years, significantly so.

I guess the rise in emissions can be justified if there is a fall in pollution from coal, oil and other power generation - there has been a move to renewable energy and nuclear (slower since Fukushima) and so we might see a real reduction in over emissions. In that environment the emissions from aviation might be sustainable and indeed, more so if say biofuels were used to any extent.
 
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Mon Mar 07, 2016 7:23 pm

If it works for business jet, it may work for a small scheduled service niche too. The development costs will be shared with the business jet prototype, smaller size will allow more flexibility, dozens airframes in service will make it not a unique fleet, and if enough people traveling in premium classes are ready to trade extra comfort for speed, then it sounds not totally impossible even without critical technology breakthroughs.
 
LH707330
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Tue Mar 08, 2016 4:06 am

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 17):
The F22 and other fighters can supecruise between Mach 1.4 - 1.88 so I don't see why a commercial AC couldn't either. I don't think anything beyond that speed is likely because it will require reheat and that ups the fuel demand by 50% right off the bat.

Concorde flew at 2.0 without reheat, in fact it was the only aircraft besides the SR-71 that could sustain M2 for any serious amount of time. Concorde B was supposed to have the reheat deleted, so it's certainly possible to do it today. From a drag standpoint, 1.4 is the optimum supersonic speed in the valley where the wave drag drops off but before the parasitic drag gets too big.

Quoting r2rho (Reply 18):
You mean, implement advanced ATC systems across the board, eliminate the post 9-11 security theater, and invest in infrastructure? No way, much easier to build a SST

Ha ha very true.

Quoting drcolenzo (Reply 19):
Which will cost $ billions to develop for a small customer segment for a small number of aircraft - that's why not, common business and economic sense.

Yeah, at the end of the day the biggest blocker is the development. You might be able to sell 100 SSTs for airline and private use, but those won't cover the immense R&D.

Quoting caoimhin (Reply 21):
Do note, however, that military aircraft and some others are exempt from the EU ETS.

They're peanuts in the overall scheme of things. When you compare fuel flow * hours * numbers, civil airliners dwarf military fuel burn.
 
Amiga500
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Tue Mar 08, 2016 8:18 am

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 24):
Yeah, at the end of the day the biggest blocker is the development. You might be able to sell 100 SSTs for airline and private use, but those won't cover the immense R&D.

Indeed.

The only viable way of funding the R&D and have a slight chance of getting it back is to parallel up several things with a military program.

To which I would say, it is more likely to be a Russian endeavour than a US or European one. LRS-B is subsonic, whereas it is likely PAK-DA [Tu-160 replacement] will be supersonic. However whether they'd be willing to allow civilian engines with a high degree of commonality to military stuff is another question.
 
Lofty
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Tue Mar 08, 2016 10:57 am

The biggest blocker for anyone other than the Americans will be the US Government protecting its own industry. Just think if Boeing had built Concorde the US government would have allowed greater access to more airports.
 
DrColenzo
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Tue Mar 08, 2016 11:28 am

Quoting Lofty (Reply 26):
The biggest blocker for anyone other than the Americans will be the US Government protecting its own industry. Just think if Boeing had built Concorde the US government would have allowed greater access to more airports.

Even then, Concorde would never have made a penny nor paid back its development costs, ever. That is the point, Concorde was great, fantastic and fast but was in-fact a dinosaur from the day it was born due to its cost an marginal relevance to the market for air travel.

Interestingly, when will the A380 make any money? By that I do not mean the borderline nonsense put forward by Airbus about making a profit without factoring in development costs I mean overall, including every penny of investment both public and private?
 
RIX
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Tue Mar 08, 2016 4:05 pm

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 24):
Concorde flew at 2.0 without reheat, in fact it was the only aircraft besides the SR-71 that could sustain M2 for any serious amount of time.

Add Tu144. Tu144D specifically, if reheat "doesn't count".

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 24):
You might be able to sell 100 SSTs for airline and private use, but those won't cover the immense R&D.

Somebody forgot to tell this to Aerion...
 
DrColenzo
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Tue Mar 08, 2016 4:44 pm

Quoting RIX (Reply 28):
Quoting LH707330 (Reply 24):
You might be able to sell 100 SSTs for airline and private use, but those won't cover the immense R&D.

Somebody forgot to tell this to Aerion...

I sincerely believe someone should point it out to them.
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Tue Mar 08, 2016 7:28 pm

Quoting RIX (Reply 28):
Somebody forgot to tell this to Aerion...

Let's see Aerion (who's been big on talk for more than a decade, but very small on tangible results) roll out an SST, fly it, and deliver it to a customer... before we start using them as the standard for anything.

Even with Airbus' help, who btw sure is keeping it on the down-low, I'm still quite pessimistic about Aerion actually being able to produce.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
solarflyer22
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Wed Mar 09, 2016 1:54 am

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 24):
Concorde flew at 2.0 without reheat, in fact it was the only aircraft besides the SR-71 that could sustain M2 for any serious amount of time. Concorde B was supposed to have the reheat deleted, so it's certainly possible to do it today. From a drag standpoint, 1.4 is the optimum supersonic speed in the valley where the wave drag drops off but before the parasitic drag gets too big.

Touche. I did some research and its Turbojet powered not Turbofan powered? The TJ's are efficient at mach 2.0 but apparently can burn 2% of the fuel load just taxing!.

I do agree 1.4 is the sweet spot. Also it prevents the 200F+ temperatures that most of the Concorde had to deal with it. Even its rear was normally over 180 degrees at cruise. You want to be able to use regular aluminum to keep costs down.
 
RIX
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Wed Mar 09, 2016 5:23 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 30):

Let's see Aerion (who's been big on talk for more than a decade, but very small on tangible results) roll out an SST, fly it, and deliver it to a customer... before we start using them as the standard for anything.


Don't change the topic, it's not about "standard". It's about them not knowing a "simple obvious thing" known and stated categorically by some users on this forum. Aerion is not the only group that has been involved in SSBJ design. None of them may ever succeed, yet if tey knew that "simple obvious thing" they shouldn't even have thought about it.

I'm still quite pessimistic about this forum being ultimate expert board for everything anyone ever tries in airplane industry.
 
Amiga500
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Wed Mar 09, 2016 5:30 pm

To be honest, I don't know if there is an individual or company in the world that could tell you the R&D costs necessary to design, test, certify and build a commercial SSJ (be it bizjet or regular commerce).

Simply far too many unknowns. If they got it right to within $2B USD I'd be very impressed.
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Wed Mar 09, 2016 7:56 pm

Quoting RIX (Reply 32):
I'm still quite pessimistic about this forum being ultimate expert board for everything anyone ever tries in airplane industry.

Let's step out of fantasy-land and try to be a bit more practical about this, shall we?

Aerion has not produced squat, other than years of talk + vaguely-defined objectives that consistently slip further and further back in time. Thus skepticism will inevitably ensue.

I can understand that you may not like having that pointed out, but unfortunately it's the reality of the situation as it stands.

If/when they finally roll out and fly an SST, we'll happily stand corrected. But I doubt just about anyone is holding their breath.

[Edited 2016-03-09 12:09:17]
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
RIX
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Thu Mar 10, 2016 6:52 pm

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 33):

Yep, fair enough.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 34):

If/when they finally roll out and fly an SST...

They may never do. Yet it doesn't mean, they or anyone else should never even start because some members of this forum know better - ultimately and undisputedly. Which was my only point.
 
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william
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Thu Mar 10, 2016 7:40 pm

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 31):
Quoting LH707330 (Reply 24):Concorde flew at 2.0 without reheat, in fact it was the only aircraft besides the SR-71 that could sustain M2 for any serious amount of time. Concorde B was supposed to have the reheat deleted, so it's certainly possible to do it today. From a drag standpoint, 1.4 is the optimum supersonic speed in the valley where the wave drag drops off but before the parasitic drag gets too big.Touche. I did some research and its Turbojet powered not Turbofan powered? The TJ's are efficient at mach 2.0 but apparently can burn 2% of the fuel load just taxing!. I do agree 1.4 is the sweet spot. Also it prevents the 200F+ temperatures that most of the Concorde had to deal with it. Even its rear was normally over 180 degrees at cruise. You want to be able to use regular aluminum to keep costs down.

So in essence, its the drag beyond Mach 1.4 that needs to be dealt with in a wind tunnel. That explains some of the talk of the Sonic Cruiser being more marketable at a Mach 1 and a little bit more plane. If the Boeing Sonic Cruiser was optimized for M1.4, it might had been a reality by now instead of vaporware.
 
cpd
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Thu Mar 10, 2016 11:03 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 34):
Let's step out of fantasy-land and try to be a bit more practical about this, shall we?

Aerion has not produced squat, other than years of talk + vaguely-defined objectives that consistently slip further and further back in time. Thus skepticism will inevitably ensue.

And I don't think they ever will produce anything. Aerion could be a front for something else though.

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 31):
I do agree 1.4 is the sweet spot. Also it prevents the 200F+ temperatures that most of the Concorde had to deal with it. Even its rear was normally over 180 degrees at cruise. You want to be able to use regular aluminum to keep costs down.

Tell me now, what was Concorde made out of? The entire idea of Concorde was to limit the use of exotic materials of titanium and the like. Hence why it only do M2.04 at maximum (M2.01 in cruise flight) and M2.23 in testing (G-AXDN).

This allowed RR58 to be used for the material. The STAC did look at M3.0 and regarded it as technically feasible but very expensive to do. Most of the cost of Concorde could likely be put down to the duplicate management structures in France and the UK, but also due to the fact that everything needed to be developed from scratch. No borrowing from supersonic strategic bombers. Those planes didn't exist at the time because missiles were around that could shoot them down, even at 60,000ft and M2.0.

If we look at Concorde, the B model which almost very nearly became a reality was designed to not have reheat. This would have made it a lot quieter on takeoff and obviously more economical too, but importantly, this B-model Olympus 593 engine would have been significantly more powerful at altitude as well, meaning the plane would climb faster to the efficient cruising altitudes and speeds. So I'm sure with todays technology you could easily design a plane that did the same job a lot more efficiently.

Any SST must be M2.0. M1.4 or M1.2 is just silly, too slow to give any major benefits.

Factor in also the journey times of a M2.4 250 passenger SST (similar to Aerospatiale Alliance) with perhaps trans-Pacific range. That would be absolutely game changing. It will certainly chop the journey times massively versus a M0.83-M0.85 long range subsonic airliner.
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Fri Mar 11, 2016 1:17 am

Quoting cpd (Reply 37):
And I don't think they ever will produce anything. Aerion could be a front for something else though.

It appeared to gain some legitimacy upon their claim of "cooperation with Airbus," but those claims seem to be extremely 1-sided, with Airbus not really making a peep about it.

I'd imagine if it were any actual interaction with a desire to bring a private SST to market, Airbus personnel would be shouting it from the mountain-tops.





Quoting cpd (Reply 37):
Factor in also the journey times of a M2.4 250 passenger SST (similar to Aerospatiale Alliance) with perhaps trans-Pacific range. That would be absolutely game changing. It will certainly chop the journey times massively versus a M0.83-M0.85 long range subsonic airliner.

But the same pesky problems that have always plagued the idea of a pax SST, will still apply.

Chief amount them being that it will always require more energy (read that: "money") to send those XXX number of passengers at M2 than it would be at 0.85M, so long as fossil fuels remain the source of propulsion.

Thus how do you aggregate that number of passengers, willing to PAY A SIGNIFICANT PREMIUM for the time reduction (them) and fleet utilization increase (airline) advantages?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
cpd
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Fri Mar 11, 2016 2:09 am

If you can go demonstrably much quicker, then you'll pay the extra. For many people, this idea of teleconferencing just isn't viable. For me it isn't. I need to be somewhere in person, face-to-face with the other party. I prefer that, I can be very much more "persuasive" in person. For some airlines, a long range 250 passenger SST would be an absolute godsend. Any of the trans-pacific ones would find it useful.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 38):
It appeared to gain some legitimacy upon their claim of "cooperation with Airbus," but those claims seem to be extremely 1-sided, with Airbus not really making a peep about it.

Does Aerion get any US Government funding for research or development? If so, where is that funding going? On the biz-jet design, or unspecified research programs? If it is the latter, I'd suspect they are doing something military related.
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Fri Mar 11, 2016 2:20 am

Quoting cpd (Reply 39):
If you can go demonstrably much quicker, then you'll pay the extra.

There appears to be zilch evidence to support that, but plenty that speaks against it.

When offered fast-but-pricier as opposed to slower-but-more-efficient, the latter has won out in the mass air transit market, EVERY time.

The only one within which it hasn't, is the BizJet market; but since you were talking about a 250seater....

[Edited 2016-03-10 18:52:52]
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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zippyjet
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Fri Mar 11, 2016 2:39 am

Quoting ZeeZoo (Thread starter):

If it's done in the boutique model of Concorde (rich folk/1%) a 50/50 shot. But I feel if it can be a super efficient large load plane for mass low cost travel then I feel the future is wide open and the potential for success would be exponential. I'd love us WN to be the launch customer of this HSCT/SST bird!
I'm Zippyjet & I approve of this message!
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Fri Mar 11, 2016 3:00 am

Quoting zippyjet (Reply 41):
But I feel if it can be a super efficient large load plane for mass low cost travel

But how do you do that?

More speed = more energy required = more fuel = higher cost than a slower similar alternative.
Very tough to get around that, so long as we're using rock jizz as our energy source for propulsion.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
cpd
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Fri Mar 11, 2016 3:07 am

Quoting zippyjet (Reply 41):
If it's done in the boutique model of Concorde (rich folk/1%) a 50/50 shot. But I feel if it can be a super efficient large load plane for mass low cost travel then I feel the future is wide open and the potential for success would be exponential. I'd love us WN to be the launch customer of this HSCT/SST bird!

Concorde was developed with the best technology available at its time. But unlike other aircraft, the technology didn't follow the natural path of improvement and refinement, like other planes. It remained stagnant. It should have been further refined.

Any new SST will benefit from the knowledge already acquired. That will doubtless reduce the development costs.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 42):
More speed = more energy required = more fuel = higher cost than a slower similar alternative.
Very tough to get around that, so long as we're using rock jizz as our energy source for propulsion.

Unless I'm not mistaken, we are now flying around in fuel guzzling B777s, B747s, B787s and the like, instead of far more efficient, slower flying air ships. Isn't it high time they were all scrapped and we all reverted to slower transport?

[Edited 2016-03-10 19:09:59]
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Fri Mar 11, 2016 3:28 am

Quoting cpd (Reply 43):
Unless I'm not mistaken, we are now flying around in fuel guzzling B777s, B747s, B787s and the like, instead of far more efficient, slower flying air ships.

Guessing you missed the word "similar" before alternative...

...but that aside, between then and now we've gone through three (arguably four) different revolutionary/radical changes in engine + frame technology; that were mass produced to the entirety of the market, often with massive governmental support and often without regard to development cost in anything remotely approaching the investment scrutiny such programs would undergo were they attempted today.

[Edited 2016-03-10 19:29:51]
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Nouflyer
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Fri Mar 11, 2016 4:11 am

I think that at current fuel prices, the market is definitely there.

BA001 and BA002 are 36 seat A318 All-Business Class flights with fares at levels which are basically First Class sized - slightly higher than Business Class.

The problem previously was that the combination of environmental concerns and a small number of affluent first worl markets plus range limitations meant that there were only a handful of viable routes for Concorde.

But if the issues of range alone are addressed - even without addressing noise issues, and with only a minor change to fuel burn, now in 2016 the following routes are already feasible on the basis of existing First Class and Business Class ticket volumes:

London-New York
Paris - New York
Amsterdam - New York
London-Barbados
Sao Paulo - Lisbon
Tokyo - Los Angeles
Tokyo - Honolulu
Sydney - Los Angeles
Sydney - San Francisco
Auckland - San Francisco
Seoul - Los Angeles
Hong Kong - Vancouver
Hong Kong - Los Angeles
Shanghai - Los Angeles

I reckon that you would need an aircraft configured with:

40 lie-flat beds at First Class fare levels
36 recliner seats at 38 inch pitch but 20 inch width (like American market domestic First Class), at Business Class levels.
30 seats at international Premium Economy configuration - 36 inch pitch, 19 inch width, and double the discount Economy subsonic fare level, exactly like QF/NZ/BA/VA already use.

That makes 106 high-yielding seats, but the 66 Business and Premium Economy seats are already sold every day on those routes. The only additional market required is the 40 First Class fare level sales.
 
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william
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Fri Mar 11, 2016 4:52 am

Tell me more about this Concorde B model. No afterburners, so it was going to have super cruise? Was there any changes to the airframe? The wing at slower speeds created drag like a parachute, which did not help fuel efficiency either.
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Fri Mar 11, 2016 4:56 am

Quoting william (Reply 46):
Tell me more about this Concorde B model. No afterburners, so it was going to have super cruise?

All Concordes were capable of supercruise.
Reheat was only used on takeoff, and for transonic acceleration.

Concorde-B would've have leading-edge slats, increased wingspan, higher fuel capacity, a 5 tonne MTOW increase, and engines with additional compressor & turbine stages, plus no reheat...... all resulting in an approx 400mi range increase.



[Edited 2016-03-10 21:13:10]
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
cloudboy
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Fri Mar 11, 2016 1:54 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 42):
More speed = more energy required = more fuel = higher cost than a slower similar alternative.
Very tough to get around that, so long as we're using rock jizz as our energy source for propulsion.

But you also have to factor in shorter time spent flying, as well as efficiency gained from higher altitude. It doesn't make up completely for the increased fuel, but it does have an effect. And as was mentioned before, the real heavy fuel use is in getting off the ground and going transonic, not in maintaining speed. Longer flights spent at cruise = lower fuel cost when spread over time.
"Six becoming three doesn't create more Americans that want to fly." -Adam Pilarski
 
DrColenzo
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RE: Is There A Market For SST?

Fri Mar 11, 2016 5:45 pm

Quoting Nouflyer (Reply 45):

I think that at current fuel prices, the market is definitely there.

Only if an aircraft actually existed - something like a Concorde B model updated with 21st century tech would do it and only then if fuel prices play along and the non-fuel cost is not onerous. However, the B never happened and the original is long gone.

Therefore, any SST would require substantially more investment than a conventional airliner and remember Concorde cost a heck of a lot more to develop than its contemporary, the 747, which was privately funded as opposed to government funded like Concorde.

Not that I wouldn't want an SST and even have Concorde back (even though I have never been much of a fan, weird that - I find the 787 or A350 sexier) it would be great to get from London to Tokyo for work in three hours but the technology needs to catch up with the market for investment in such an aircraft and we are just not there yet.

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