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Sydscott
Posts: 3513
Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2003 11:50 am

RE: American Airlines To Start LAX-HKG

Wed Mar 09, 2016 9:12 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 95):
I just don't see the animosity here. Does CX expect to own this route all by its lonesome with 4x per day. Their product and its timing will speak for itself. AA can differentiate based on timing and I bet the pricing will be competitive in Y. I personally think the AA J seat on the 77Ws isn't too shabby.

I agree and doubt there is any animosity. CX would have seen this coming from a mile off as it was a logical add from LAX for AA. And given the product on AA's 77W's and the timings it would appear that AA's flight is more complimentary in nature to the CX schedule than anything else.

CX Management is also not going to throw away their relationship with AA over 1 competitive frequency. They're way smarter than that.

Quoting Kashmon (Reply 88):
the only reason QF sustains its tiny operation is because they got their government to ban CX from expanding....

LOL I do love a good bit of flamebait. Pity you're not going to find anyone to engage you about it in an AA thread.
 
Speedalive
Posts: 166
Joined: Sun Jan 17, 2016 7:09 pm

RE: American Airlines To Start LAX-HKG

Wed Mar 09, 2016 9:30 pm

Quoting JasonCRH (Reply 40):

Ah wasn't aware that they didn't share profits.
 
commavia
Posts: 11489
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: American Airlines To Start LAX-HKG

Wed Mar 09, 2016 10:04 pm

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 100):
CX would have seen this coming from a mile off as it was a logical add from LAX for AA.

... not to mention that AA's executives have explicitly stated in the recent past that LAX-HKG was being considered. Cathay had to see this coming.

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 100):
CX Management is also not going to throw away their relationship with AA over 1 competitive frequency. They're way smarter than that.

  
 
a380787
Posts: 4573
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

RE: American Airlines To Start LAX-HKG

Wed Mar 09, 2016 10:18 pm

Even including this new flight, CX will still have roughly 2/3rd the nonstop seat share between US lower48 and HKG (probably >70% if you include the 1-stop direct service via YVR). This single flight won't worry CX much, if at all.

Just because 2 airlines in the same alliance fly the same route outside a JV/JBA context doesn't make it "animosity" .... of course if they engage in major fare wars then start stripping mileage earning and elite benefits from each other, that's a different story.
 
Max Q
Posts: 8633
Joined: Wed May 09, 2001 12:40 pm

RE: American Airlines To Start LAX-HKG

Wed Mar 09, 2016 10:49 pm

AA has really come a long way, their weakness was always in the Pacific and now they've built
a respectable network on their own.
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


GGg
 
pasu129
Posts: 504
Joined: Sat Jul 07, 2012 12:39 am

RE: American Airlines To Start LAX-HKG

Wed Mar 09, 2016 11:06 pm

AA's new route LAX-HKG actually compliments each other on both AA & CX, the 08:10 arrival to HKG actually makes connections to rest of SEAsia a lot easier, and evening arrival to LAX actually connects to most cities on West Coast US.

I see AA taking advantage of mega hub of CX in HKG and also complimenting each other's flight times, making LAX - HKG 5 flights daily, obviously has a strong O&D market linking both cities.

[Edited 2016-03-09 15:07:16]
Viva Las Vegas
 
N1120A
Posts: 26609
Joined: Sun Dec 14, 2003 5:40 pm

RE: American Airlines To Start LAX-HKG

Wed Mar 09, 2016 11:46 pm

Quoting fun2fly (Reply 89):
Well, AA has a horrible schedule.

Not really. It makes a lot of sense.
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
oc2dc
Posts: 469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2013 4:38 am

RE: American Airlines To Start LAX-HKG

Thu Mar 10, 2016 12:55 am

Quoting a380787 (Reply 94):
I'm looking at the largest regional markets that can feed this flight. Here are the LAX arrival times of the latest flight of the day, using AA/AS/WS metal :

YVR 1719
MEX 1843
SLC 2006
YYC 2131 (WS)
DEN 2143
LAS 2256
SEA 2257
PHX 2359
PDX 0010 (AS)
SEA 0031 (AS)
SFO 0031

If you expand your region and market just a bit more, you still get pretty good feed. Here are the LAX arrival times that can connect to the HKG flight:


XNA 17:31
ELP 18:37
BNA 18:38
STL 18:52
OKC 18:55
TUS 18:55
MSP 18:58
RNO 20:16
DCA 20:22
IAD 21:16
ABQ 21:36
AUS 21:39
IAH 21:39
MCO 21:44
RDU 21:45
SAN 21:49
SMF 23:11



Some markets may be small, but there are a lot of potential connections. Even if we look at the more reasonable connection times, which in my opinion begin at 21:00 or later, there are still plenty of potential connecting flights for this route. The flights that arrive before 21:00 may be a stretch for connecting as the wait seems ridiculous for the average business traveler.

The only other thing you have to wonder about is how loyal are AA customers? Any of the passengers listed on the flights above could easily have a reasonable LAX layover and depart earlier with CX.
I'm not complaining, I'm critiquing...
 
pasu129
Posts: 504
Joined: Sat Jul 07, 2012 12:39 am

RE: American Airlines To Start LAX-HKG

Thu Mar 10, 2016 2:58 am

Quoting oc2dc (Reply 107):
The only other thing you have to wonder about is how loyal are AA customers?

As mentioned before, CX/AA codeshare flight does NOT share revenues, so on average CX flights are about $2-3K more than AA, just that alone will have AAdvantage members consider AA than CX. And AA & CX's J class is essentially the same exact hard product, I'd think AA might have something going for them here!
Viva Las Vegas
 
grbauc
Posts: 1469
Joined: Sat Mar 28, 2015 9:05 pm

RE: American Airlines To Start LAX-HKG

Thu Mar 10, 2016 3:40 am

Quoting pasu129 (Reply 108):
As mentioned before, CX/AA codeshare flight does NOT share revenues, so on average CX flights are about $2-3K more than AA, just that alone will have AAdvantage members consider AA than CX. And AA & CX's J class is essentially the same exact hard product, I'd think AA might have something going for them here!

I have tried many times to use CX J class to southeast Asia and there prices are way out of range. I don't mind paying a premium but 3k plus is too much. Maybe with AA metal to there mega hub I'll be able to use them.
 
a380787
Posts: 4573
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

RE: American Airlines To Start LAX-HKG

Thu Mar 10, 2016 4:25 am

Quoting oc2dc (Reply 107):

Exactly why are you listing XNA with its 8.5 hour layover ?
 
9w748capt
Posts: 1770
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 10:27 am

RE: American Airlines To Start LAX-HKG

Thu Mar 10, 2016 4:37 am

Quoting Norcal773 (Reply 79):

CX flies the route to the tune of 4X daily and codeshares with AA. I really don't see the need for the route if you ask me.

You must not be an AA frequent flyer then. To those of us that are, it's plainly obvious why AA would enter LAX-HKG. It's been rumored ever since AA became so successful with DFW-HKG.

Quoting sandycx (Reply 90):

Rather than "wage war", Cathay management are far more likely to study the cost and benefits of terminating AA codeshare on LAX-HKG route.

Exactly. CX could care less about the AA elites who use SWUs to upgrade. They're after paid J/F traffic. I'm guessing CX clearly sees the benefit in letting AA feed all their intra-asian widebodies to places like BKK, SIN, CGK - that AA is never going to touch with their own metal. And CX will still have 4x/day to AA's one.
 
Norcal773
Posts: 1059
Joined: Sat Feb 10, 2007 8:19 pm

RE: American Airlines To Start LAX-HKG

Thu Mar 10, 2016 4:55 am

Quoting grbauc (Reply 109):
I have tried many times to use CX J class to southeast Asia and there prices are way out of range. I don't mind paying a premium but 3k plus is too much. Maybe with AA metal to there mega hub I'll be able to use them.

$3K for J class Trans-Pacific is too much? How much do you normally pay if you don;t mind me asking? Haven't flown J Trans-Pac in about 7 years but back then when I did it a lot, $3K was a steal SFO-HKG. Paid $7K once on SQ...Or rather, my employer did. Least I ever paid was $3K on DL when they flew SFO-NRT.

Quoting 9w748capt (Reply 111):
You must not be an AA frequent flyer then. To those of us that are, it's plainly obvious why AA would enter LAX-HKG. It's been rumored ever since AA became so successful with DFW-HKG.

I am not, I fly UA and it's partners and I fly out of SFO, not LAX. I am not sure it's obvious, but it sure makes sense. I just think it's amazing how CX is able to sustain the loads on the HKG-California routes with 7X/day most days (4 LAX, 3SFO). I remember when UA used to fly LAX-HKG until their 744s started getting killed by CX 77Ws and had to make a fuel stop in Taiwan. I'd love to see UA bring back the route though with a 789 just to make it interesting.
If you're going through hell, keep going
 
Longhornmaniac
Posts: 3147
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2005 2:33 pm

RE: American Airlines To Start LAX-HKG

Thu Mar 10, 2016 5:15 am

Quoting wn676 (Reply 99):
With this turn, where does the aircraft operating HKG-LAX turn out to? With an 1840 arrival it's too late to take out LHR. My guess is that the actual routing will reflect what's been posted already: DFW-HKG-LAX-HKG-DFW. Don't think they would touch the LHR-LAX-LHR routings unless they swap times with BA.

I was wondering about that, too, so I think I figured it out.

Unless there are other equipment changes, here's how I expect it to go down:

-The two LHR flights will be isolated from the other routes. That is, the aircraft will fly LHR-LAX-LHR-(JFK/MIA/DFW). For the purposes of aircraft utilization, LAX is effectively the outstation, with LHR being how aircraft are moved between hubs. This is how it functions now.

-Expect to 77Ws to fly from another hub to LAX on the evenings 6 Sep and 7 Sep. After these, the system works really well.

Beginning on 7 Sep:

Aircraft 1 will fly inaugural LAX-HKG early morning (after having been repositioned on evening of 6 Sep)
Aircraft 2 will fly MIA-LAX-SYD in the evening as it does now
Aircraft 3 will fly XXX-LAX in the evening (repositioning)

8 Sep:

Aircraft 1 does HKG-LAX-SYD PM departure arriving PM same day, departing late night to SYD same day
Aircraft 3 does LAX-HKG
Aircraft 4 does MIA-LAX

9 Sep:

Aircraft 2 does SYD-LAX-MIA
Aircraft 3 does HKG-LAX-SYD
Aircraft 4 does LAX-HKG
Aircraft 5 does MIA-LAX

10 Sep:

Aircraft 1 does SYD-LAX-MIA
Aircraft 4 does HKG-LAX-SYD
Aircraft 5 does LAX-HKG
Aircraft 6 does MIA-LAX

And on and on.

Essentially, after the first two days of repositioning, an aircraft will fly MIA-LAX-HKG-LAX-SYD-LAX-MIA. To get the aircraft in the right places to facilitate that, it will require repositioning of two 77W from one of the other hubs to operate the first two LAX-HKG legs, after which point the aircraft will have returned to LAX to be able to operate the SYD flight, freeing up the MIA-LAX segment to operate HKG. It wouldn't surprise me to see MIA-LAX re-timed to leave a bit later (say 7:00), if it benefited them operationally in MIA, since it now wouldn't be leaving LAX until well after midnight.

Of course, I could be totally wrong, but this does make sense from a utilization standpoint.

Cheers,
Cameron
Cheers,
Cameron
 
oc2dc
Posts: 469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2013 4:38 am

RE: American Airlines To Start LAX-HKG

Thu Mar 10, 2016 6:58 am

Quoting pasu129 (Reply 108):
As mentioned before, CX/AA codeshare flight does NOT share revenues, so on average CX flights are about $2-3K more than AA, just that alone will have AAdvantage members consider AA than CX.

You would assume with more competition comes downward pressure on pricing. . . key word is assume. I just took a quick look at SFO-HKG-SFO on UA and CX. It turns out CX Y is only $60 more round trip. That's pretty competitive compared to being 2-3K more expensive. Let's see if the same thing plays out at LAX.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 110):
Exactly why are you listing XNA with its 8.5 hour layover ?

My mistake. That would be totally inconvenient.

Quoting Longhornmaniac (Reply 113):
Of course, I could be totally wrong, but this does make sense from a utilization standpoint.

I think you might be forgetting about the DFW-HKG plane that sits at HKG for almost 20 hours before continuing its journey back to DFW... This plane will definitely be put to work because as it is now, it doesn't have the most efficient utilization.
I'm not complaining, I'm critiquing...
 
hz747300
Posts: 2419
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 11:38 pm

RE: American Airlines To Start LAX-HKG

Thu Mar 10, 2016 9:25 am

Quoting oc2dc (Reply 114):
I think you might be forgetting about the DFW-HKG plane that sits at HKG for almost 20 hours before continuing its journey back to DFW..

I don't understand why they don't do a tag to one of SIN, BKK, KUL, MNL or something. Shoot, that long of a wait they could even to DEL.
Keep on truckin'...
 
HPAEAA
Posts: 1142
Joined: Mon May 08, 2006 7:24 am

RE: American Airlines To Start LAX-HKG

Thu Mar 10, 2016 1:07 pm

Quoting Norcal773 (Reply 112):
$3K for J class Trans-Pacific is too much? How much do you normally pay if you don;t mind me asking? Haven't flown J Trans-Pac in about 7 years but back then when I did it a lot, $3K was a steal SFO-HKG. Paid $7K once on SQ...Or rather, my employer did. Least I ever paid was $3K on DL when they flew SFO-NRT.

In my experience it's 3k above what other carriers are charging, you can get AA, UA, DL, and some other Asian carriers in the 3,500-4,500 range however CX is consistently in the 7,500 USD Range. Agree if it was just 3,000 USD it would be a steal but I rarely see it at that level.
1.4mm and counting...
 
uberflieger
Posts: 1573
Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 6:22 pm

RE: American Airlines To Start LAX-HKG

Thu Mar 10, 2016 1:49 pm

American is on a tear across the Pacific.   

This flight is all about Los Angeles to HKG / SE Asia. Forget US connections. The timing simply doesn't work.

Quoting HeeseokKoo (Reply 63):
The proposed schedule compliments so well with CX

Since 1998, when they first announced the creation of the Oneworld Alliance, AA & CX have become as close partners as 2 airlines can be without a JV.


Quoting 9w748capt (Reply 111):
CX clearly sees the benefit in letting AA feed all their intra-asian widebodies to places like BKK, SIN, CGK

HKG is the ideal gateway to the many destinations in SE Asia we are unlikely to ever see AA metal and the additional feed could be key to Cathy's shrinking demand for premium seats & declining yield, due to network expansion by mainland carriers & LCC competition. JFK-HKG with the A350 is a real possibility, IMHO.

Congrats   
 
ckfred
Posts: 5188
Joined: Wed Apr 25, 2001 12:50 pm

RE: American Airlines To Start LAX-HKG

Thu Mar 10, 2016 3:18 pm

Before 9/11, AA announced SJC-TPE. I don't recall if service was started and then dropped, post 9/11, or if the route never started. I'm not sure how much the market has changed in the last 15 years, but LAX-TPE certainly should be evaluated.
 
jasoncrh
Posts: 784
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 10:29 pm

RE: American Airlines To Start LAX-HKG

Thu Mar 10, 2016 3:37 pm

the SJC - TPE, in addition to SJC - CDG - was started in summer 2001 and promptly dropped.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 118):
Quoting ckfred (Reply 118):
Before 9/11, AA announced SJC-TPE. I don't recall if service was started and then dropped, post 9/11, or if the route never started. I'm not sure how much the market has changed in the last 15 years, but LAX-TPE certainly should be evaluated.
 
a380787
Posts: 4573
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

RE: American Airlines To Start LAX-HKG

Thu Mar 10, 2016 3:37 pm

Quoting ckfred (Reply 118):

Before 9/11, AA announced SJC-TPE. I don't recall if service was started and then dropped, post 9/11, or if the route never started. I'm not sure how much the market has changed in the last 15 years, but LAX-TPE certainly should be evaluated.

It's very different compared to LAX-HKG, where AA's schedule kinda fills a gap in CX's service, and they compliment each other, even if outside a JV context.

On the other hand, LAX-TPE has 5x daily (occasionally a 6th), all of which are on rival alliances. BR and CI nearly have identical departure times

LAX-TPE westbound

BR 0050 BR 0125 CI 0145

CI 1625 BR 1755

TPE-LAX eastbound

CI 1710 BR 1840 BR 1920

CI 2350 BR 2355
 
wn676
Posts: 1748
Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2005 5:33 am

RE: American Airlines To Start LAX-HKG

Thu Mar 10, 2016 5:12 pm

Quoting Longhornmaniac (Reply 113):
-The two LHR flights will be isolated from the other routes. That is, the aircraft will fly LHR-LAX-LHR-(JFK/MIA/DFW). For the purposes of aircraft utilization, LAX is effectively the outstation, with LHR being how aircraft are moved between hubs. This is how it functions now.

This is what I've come to as well. Now, bear with me here, because I've probably spent way too much time thinking about this.

August appears to be the last month of the published schedule that the 77W fleet is balanced, and taking a stab at the routings (and I'm by no means an expert), I'm thinking this is what it looks like:

JFK 22:10-08:55 GRU
GRU 20:50-05:20 DFW
DFW 12:50-18:00 HKG
HKG 14:30-16:35 DFW
DFW 19:15-10:25 LHR
LHR 12:25-15:50 LAX
LAX 17:55-12:25 LHR
LHR 15:05-19:20 DFW
DFW 21:20-09:25 GRU
GRU 21:25-05:00 MIA
MIA 17:13-19:30 LAX
LAX 23:00-07:10 SYD
SYD 09:50-06:30 LAX
LAX 10:30-18:40 MIA
MIA 22:00-07:25 GRU
GRU 10:00-17:30 MIA
MIA 22:25-08:23 EZE
EZE 20:00-04:21 MIA
MIA 09:55-19:35 GRU
GRU 21:30-06:20 JFK
JFK 18:15-06:20 LHR
LHR 09:30-13:40 DFW
DFW 15:45-06:55 LHR
LHR 09:45-14:20 MIA
MIA 18:25-08:05 LHR
LHR 12:15-15:05 ORD
ORD 19:20-09:05 LHR
LHR 12:15-16:55 MIA
MIA 21:15-11:00 LHR
LHR 14:00-17:20 LAX
LAX 19:50-14:20 LHR
LHR 17:15-20:15 JFK

This appears to use 20 frames with long sits in HKG, EZE, JFK, and MIA. Now obviously something is going to have to be dropped to accommodate LAX-HKG. Let's say EZE goes back to the 772; it definitely doesn't need the capabilities of the 77W and I'd hazard a guess that it could do without the F cabin as well. In doing this though, you'd also have to drop the MIA-LAX-MIA routing as it's currently scheduled or else you end up needing an additional frame. What this would do is require one of the LHR-LAX arrivals to turn out to SYD 8 or so hours later. This also means that the SYD-LAX arrival sits for a good 10 hours or so before turning out to LHR. Maybe this is beneficial from a maintenance standpoint, or maybe it isn't. However, if you re-arrange the MIA-LAX segment by taking the 77W off of the 17:13 departure out of MIA and re-timing the current 20:22 departure to 20:40 (for an arrival of 23:10 in LAX), then it becomes:

JFK 22:10-08:55 GRU
GRU 20:50-05:20 DFW
DFW 12:50-18:00 HKG
HKG 20:20-18:40 LAX
LAX 23:00-07:10 SYD
SYD 09:50-06:30 LAX
LAX 10:30-18:40 MIA
MIA 20:40-23:10 LAX
LAX 01:55-08:10 HKG
HKG 14:30-16:35 DFW
DFW 19:15-10:25 LHR
LHR 12:25-15:50 LAX
LAX 17:55-12:25 LHR
LHR 15:05-19:20 DFW
DFW 21:20-09:25 GRU
GRU 21:25-05:00 MIA
MIA 09:55-19:35 GRU
GRU 21:30-06:20 JFK
JFK 18:15-06:20 LHR
LHR 09:30-13:40 DFW
DFW 15:45-06:55 LHR
LHR 09:45-14:20 MIA
MIA 18:25-08:05 LHR
LHR 12:15-15:05 ORD
ORD 19:20-09:05 LHR
LHR 12:15-16:55 MIA
MIA 22:00-07:25 GRU
GRU 10:00-17:30 MIA
MIA 21:15-11:00 LHR
LHR 14:00-17:20 LAX
LAX 19:50-14:20 LHR
LHR 17:15-20:15 JFK

In this scenario you can see that the inbound HKG-LAX turns to LAX-SYD and the inbound re-timed MIA-LAX turns out to LAX-HKG. Additionally I believe this would only require 19 aircraft, leaving a spare, though this is probably due to the 20-hour sit in HKG and the few other long layovers dropping out of the schedule. If they really wanted to go full out with utilization though there's room in there to fit another JFK-LHR-JFK, replacing the 772 on flights 104/105.

Quoting Longhornmaniac (Reply 113):
Of course, I could be totally wrong, but this does make sense from a utilization standpoint.

Cheers,
Cameron


I'll add the same disclaimer here.  

[Edited 2016-03-10 09:38:25]

[Edited 2016-03-10 09:42:44]
Tiny, unreadable text leaves ample room for interpretation.
 
Longhornmaniac
Posts: 3147
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2005 2:33 pm

RE: American Airlines To Start LAX-HKG

Thu Mar 10, 2016 5:12 pm

Quoting oc2dc (Reply 114):
I think you might be forgetting about the DFW-HKG plane that sits at HKG for almost 20 hours before continuing its journey back to DFW... This plane will definitely be put to work because as it is now, it doesn't have the most efficient utilization.

I'm not forgetting about it, though it is sort of mislabeled. In my scenario, "Aircraft 3" represents both the LAX-HKG flight and the HKG-LAX flight (even though they're two different aircraft, as the aircraft route DFW-HKG-LAX and LAX-HKG-DFW). Perhaps it would've been more accurate to label it the "HKG aircraft." The timing is correct, though. The HKG flight leaves HKG in the PM and arrives LAX in the PM of the same calendar day.

Cheers,
Cameron
Cheers,
Cameron

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