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777Jet
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Wed Mar 23, 2016 11:29 pm

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 28):

Great post.

Let's wait and see where on the plane some of the more recent debris came from.

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 31):
Quoting markalot (Reply 29):
At night though? Might be hard to see the swells.

It would depend on the longitude. Probably there was at least twilight locally.

It was already discussed that at that time of the year in that part of the world, there would have easily been some daylight at the time of the final ping; even more daylight if the plane glided for a while longer after the final ping...

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 33):
Does it look like a Boeing toilet? I am not an expert....

I've flown on a lot of MH 777s. The shape is wrong (especially at the front). The colour is slightly wrong. Also, the waste hole in this image is much larger than the tiny hole the crap in a 777 toilet gets sucked through. The front of a 777 toilet also sticks out farther from the 'unit'. I'm pretty sure this toilet is not from a 777 but who knows...  twocents 

If it is, it could have some DNA on it for testing  
Quoting Erebus (Reply 36):
Couldn't find an MH 777 toilet.

I'm surprised there isn't a pic in a trip report on this site as toilet pics are usually included in them  

In fact, I took a pic of a TG 777-300 toilet not too long ago. I'll try to post a pic.

Quoting gzm (Reply 47):
A few years ago there was a pilot who got fired from a small Asian airline-I just can't find the article. He was so angry that he wanted to give them a lesson.He got into an ATR 42, took off and for more than twenty minutes he performed the most spectacular acrobatics to show off his flying skills. Finally, he crashed his airplane onto another two parked ATRs of the same airline and there was a picture in the magazine of the burning planes. The airline was left with only one airplane. That's how an angry pilot commits suicide.

No, that's how one angry pilot did it.

Why didn't the Silk Air 185 & Egypt Air 990 pilots do the same?

[Edited 2016-03-23 16:36:44]
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777Jet
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Wed Mar 23, 2016 11:35 pm

Here is a pic of a 777 toilet I took a few months ago.

The plane was a TG 777-300.

https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1495/24080068909_c57c151210_c.jpgP1100228 by Triple Seven Jet, on Flickr

https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1691/24339563602_f2a1836385_c.jpgP1100216 by Triple Seven Jet, on Flickr

The above toilet was at the very end of the plane.

The following is the J class toilet in front of door 2R.

https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1455/24339892462_22ef1a54ea_c.jpgP1100436 by Triple Seven Jet, on Flickr

[Edited 2016-03-23 16:38:11]
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kanban
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 1:20 am

The toilet found on the beach is from a sani-can/port-a-potty... although I doubt many readers will be familiar with one.
 
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777Jet
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 2:12 am

Some news on the Mozambique debris:


'MH370: Debris found in Mozambique 'almost certainly' from missing Malaysia Airlines plane'

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-2...rtainly-from-missing-mh370/7274016

""Debris recovered from the African nation of Mozambique is highly likely to have come from the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, the Australian Government has confirmed.

The flight disappeared with 239 passengers and crew on board, shortly after taking off from Kuala Lumpur two years ago.

Wreckage was discovered along the southern coast of Africa earlier this week and Australian Transport Minister Darren Chester said the Malaysian investigation team had finished its examination of the two pieces of debris.

In a statement, Mr Chester said that both pieces of debris were consistent with panels from a Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 aircraft.

"The analysis has concluded the debris is almost certainly from MH370," Mr Chester said.

"That such debris has been found on the east coast of Africa is consistent with drift modelling performed by CSIRO and further affirms our search efforts in the southern Indian Ocean."

It is believed the plane crashed in the Indian Ocean and an initial search of a 60,000 square kilometres area of sea floor now extends to 120,000 square km.

A piece of the plane's wing washed up on the French Indian Ocean island of Reunion, on the other side of Madagascar, in July 2015.""
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
Viscount724
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 2:18 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 53):
Here is a pic of a 777 toilet I took a few months ago.

Just curious, why would anyone want to take a photo of an aircraft toilet?
 
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777Jet
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 2:37 am

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 56):
Just curious, why would anyone want to take a photo of an aircraft toilet?

I have no idea. I have seen pics of lavs in trip reports for a long time so whenever I decide I am going to do a trip report involving that flight I sometimes take my camera into the lav with me   

At least I don't take selfies in the lav and put them in my trip reports like quite a few people do  

Now here is a question for you:

You asked the above aviation related question. You also asked in a different sub-forum, in a thread about 'flown / booked flights', why people post a list of all the flights they have done or have coming up.

Do you realize that most of the people on this forum are aviation enthusiasts and like planes? Just wondering  
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GRJGeorge
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 2:01 pm

Apparently another piece found at Wilderness Beach outside George (GRJ)...yes my city, hence my user name!!!!!! I'm quite close to both Wilderness and Klein-Brak where the RR engine piece were found.
No pictures, but apparently looks like window panel or something.
Guess I might be doing some strolls along our long stretches of beach this long-weekend...
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 4:55 pm

If it looks like a window panel, it probably did not come from MH370. But yes, get out there and do some patrolling. Look for honeycomb material. While you're at it, consider a vacation to Madagascar.
 
gzm
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 6:31 pm

You remind me those ads of the Greek National Tourist Organization in 2003. For example:
Horizon: originally a Greek word.It designates that line towards which you direct yourself during a cruise in the Aegean.Have you ever followed it? To know that, visit your travel agent........................Greece: Beyond words.

You just can't be serious......

[Edited 2016-03-24 11:33:15]
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 7:53 pm

Quoting gzm (Reply 59):
You remind me those ads of the Greek National Tourist Organization in 2003. For example:
Horizon: originally a Greek word.It designates that line towards which you direct yourself during a cruise in the Aegean.Have you ever followed it? To know that, visit your travel agent........................Greece: Beyond words.

You just can't be serious......

Huh? Are you talking to me? Trust me, I am not a paid shill for the Madagascar tourist booster bureau. The point is, except for the flaperon, the rest of the debris objects have come from east Africa, yet they have all been found by relatively well-off people of non-color. Coincidence? Perhaps...

Check out this diagram:



The dots represent the places where actual drift buoys that passed through the main search zone later washed up on shore. The average wash-up time was on the order of 18 months. Now look at the NE corner of Madagascar. A lot of buoys wound up there. There is there about 200 mile stretch of mostly undeveloped beaches. It is sparsely inhabited by little agricultural villages nestled in the neighboring rainforest.

Here is a representative slice of the coastline:

http://i.imgur.com/rMiHcND.png

The coast mostly trends to the SSE, but there are these little "hooks" where the sand and anything else would pile up. Those would be good places for would-be MH370-debris prospectors to look. That was my suggestion to the South Africans here: go to Madagascar if you have a chance.

At this point, finding more debris is the only way to move the MH370 investigation forward. There is already a pattern forming. I predict that further pieces will fill out the pattern....
 
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777Jet
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Sat Mar 26, 2016 1:29 am

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 60):
Quoting gzm (Reply 59):
You remind me those ads of the Greek National Tourist Organization in 2003. For example:
Horizon: originally a Greek word.It designates that line towards which you direct yourself during a cruise in the Aegean.Have you ever followed it? To know that, visit your travel agent........................Greece: Beyond words.

You just can't be serious......

Huh? Are you talking to me? Trust me, I am not a paid shill for the Madagascar tourist booster bureau.

I believe gzm was doing self-talk  
Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 60):
At this point, finding more debris is the only way to move the MH370 investigation forward. There is already a pattern forming. I predict that further pieces will fill out the pattern....

  

I suspect that there are bits and pieces of the plane already washed up on some of these beaches ready to be discovered, and in the near future, more and more pieces will start turning up.

Perhaps the recent findings of a few items in a similar region over such a short time frame will encourage people in those areas to be a bit more 'on the look'...
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oxymorph
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Sat Mar 26, 2016 6:05 am

Quoting gzm (Reply 43):
To me it's obvious that the elusive airplane suffered some mechanical failure. We have said before that if the crew had wanted to do something on purpose, they would have made their intentions clear to everyone.It just does not make any sense

Obvious mechanical failure?      

So all suicides make their intentions perfectly clear to everyone? Not to mention that this wasn't a 'suicide'. Since when is the murder of 238 people categorized as 'suicide'? Please do enlighten.

And please also inform the good readers and interested parties here as to when and how individuals about to commit mass murder 'make their intentions clear' to EVERYONE?

You have NO CLUE as to what you are talking about. Just complete rubbish and inane (or perhaps I should say insane) garbage, respectfully.

[Edited 2016-03-25 23:07:03]
 
gzm
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Sat Mar 26, 2016 7:39 am

Try to respect other people's opinion,or prove your own,if you can.
Interestingly, I have never been one of those who thought that the plane would be found in one piece near Australia.....
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Sat Mar 26, 2016 3:30 pm

A couple of points. Simulators, even of the highest fidelity used for pilot training, are not likely to faithfully reproduce extreme corner cases outside the operating envelope. Exner's faith in the behavior of the simulator is probably misplaced. As for the bits being recovered on beaches, there are so few that it's premature to conclude anything about the manner in which the plane ended its flight. I predict that the "pattern" will adapt to whatever is found next; it's called over-fitting the data.
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Sat Mar 26, 2016 4:25 pm

I started a thread in the technical ops forum to ask about what happens after the overbank protection after flameout; the replies have been somewhat contradictory: one person said that "envelope protection" is lost if all that's available is the RAT; another person said that some of these protections are restored once the RAT restores electrical power. 7BOEING7 echoed your point that simulators are not necessarily perfect replications of the real world, and he added that point that flaps cannot be extended with the RAT alone, but that primary flight control surface hydraulics will continue to function.
 
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777Jet
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Sun Mar 27, 2016 12:05 am

Quoting gzm (Reply 63):
Interestingly, I have never been one of those who thought that the plane would be found in one piece near Australia.....

Who actually stated that they believe the plane would be found in:

Quoting gzm (Reply 63):
one piece

I don't recall anybody stating that!
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gzm
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Sun Mar 27, 2016 5:48 am

Quoting 777 jet (Reply 66)

Quote:
Who actually stated that they believed that the plane would be found in one piece?
I don't recall anybody stating that!

I do remember the "controlled ditching" theory,however. They implied just that!
 
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777Jet
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Sun Mar 27, 2016 1:08 pm

Quoting gzm (Reply 67):
I do remember the "controlled ditching" theory,however. They implied just that!

Even under the controlled ditching scenario nobody said, nor implied, that

Quoting gzm (Reply 63):
the plane would be found in one piece near Australia.....

That would be impossible, unless, of course, you believe a giant crane just magically appeared out of the clouds and gently lowered 9M-MRO onto a perfectly calm sea therefore allowing it to sink in one whole piece...  

Has a piece of the fuselage been found yet? No.

The only parts that seem to have been found are from areas such as the wings, engines or stabilizers which would pretty much be the first things to break off during any ditching. What has been found so far makes sense if 9M-MRO was ditched. The fuselage could very well still be in a few large pieces sitting somewhere on the sea floor...
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kanban
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Sun Mar 27, 2016 4:37 pm

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 68):

other media reported variations of landing in other than the destination, and controlled landing at sea.. Really it's no longer a point of debate, just an observation of the imagination that goes with conspiracy theories.. same as now as everybody wants to fit 5 or so pieces into the theory they've vested so much hot air in while poo-pooing everyones else's ideas.. Now when a piece washes up in Alaska or Peru. who's going to claim it fits their theory.
 
oxymorph
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Sun Mar 27, 2016 6:53 pm

Quoting kanban (Reply 69):
Really it's no longer a point of debate, just an observation of the imagination that goes with conspiracy theories.

While the many conspiracy theories have run 'amok', and are flat out asinine, the PIC commandeering the a/c and glide/ditching into the SIO is quite the opposite. It is the MOST likely scenario. Even the ATSB has PUBLICLY made allowance for the possibility. So lets not lump THIS scenario into the 'conspiracy' bin.

Not to mention that it is glaringly and unmistakably clear to anyone with half a working noggin that the plane was purposely and nefariously diverted.

But some seem incapable of understanding this for reasons that they alone must endure.

[Edited 2016-03-27 11:54:14]
 
hinckley
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Sun Mar 27, 2016 8:28 pm

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 70):
Not to mention that it is glaringly and unmistakably clear to anyone with half a working noggin that the plane was purposely and nefariously diverted.

  
 
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777Jet
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Sun Mar 27, 2016 11:29 pm

Quoting kanban (Reply 68):
Now when a piece washes up in Alaska or Peru. who's going to claim it fits their theory.

That would be gzm! Alaska and Peru both border the Pacific Ocean and gzm believes it would have made more sense for somebody wanting to make the plan vanish to fly in that direction despite all the military activity there.

If a piece washed up in the Gulf of Thailand or the South China Seas NAV30 would claim victory!  
Quoting kanban (Reply 68):
observation of the imagination that goes with conspiracy theories.. same as now as everybody wants to fit 5 or so pieces into the theory they've vested so much hot air in while poo-pooing everyones else's ideas..

You mean "poo-pooing" everybody else's

Quoting kanban (Reply 68):
conspiracy theories

In one sentence you say "conspiracy theories" and in the next you say "ideas"...  
Quoting oxymorph (Reply 69):
Quoting kanban (Reply 69):
Really it's no longer a point of debate, just an observation of the imagination that goes with conspiracy theories.

While the many conspiracy theories have run 'amok', and are flat out asinine, the PIC commandeering the a/c and glide/ditching into the SIO is quite the opposite. It is the MOST likely scenario. Even the ATSB has PUBLICLY made allowance for the possibility. So lets not lump THIS scenario into the 'conspiracy' bin.

Not to mention that it is glaringly and unmistakably clear to anyone with half a working noggin that the plane was purposely and nefariously diverted.

But some seem incapable of understanding this for reasons that they alone must endure.

  
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 2:55 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 67):
Has a piece of the fuselage been found yet? No.

That isn't rocket science: pieces of fuselage are made of aluminum, and therefore do not float. The fact that all pieces of the aircraft recovered so far were capable of floating for a very long time is not, shall we say, just a coincidence.
 
lancelot07
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 6:25 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 67):
Even under the controlled ditching scenario nobody said, nor implied, that

The "ditch in one piece" was one of the cornerstones of the "the pilot did it"-theory, though not necessarily near Australia.
He wanted no floating debris to be found, they said, remember ?
This theory desperately needs an update. There was no disappearance without trace - which allegedly was the reason for flying to the SIO in the first place.
Then why not put the nose down and crash at the first opportunity, instead of a long journey and a slow death by drowning ? Humans don't act like that!

Quoting oxymorph (Reply 69):
Even the ATSB has PUBLICLY made allowance for the possibility.
Quoting oxymorph (Reply 69):
Not to mention that it is glaringly and unmistakably clear to anyone with half a working noggin that the plane was purposely and nefariously diverted

Making an allowance for a possibility does not imply a significant probability, let alone clarity. And even if the nefarious possibility turns out to be true the question about the perpetrator remains.
 
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smittythepirate
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 10:17 am

Go talk about theories in the other thread... This one is for found parts.
www.jbweather.com
 
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777Jet
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 10:41 am

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 72):
Quoting 777Jet (Reply 67):
Has a piece of the fuselage been found yet? No.

That isn't rocket science: pieces of fuselage are made of aluminum, and therefore do not float.

My question was leading somewhere...

If the fuselage busted open during a rough ditching, or smashed into millions of pieces after an uncontrolled dive, then plenty of items with buoyancy could have escaped it.

Nothing from within the fuselage has been found yet. Nothing. Not one seat cushion, safety card, life vest, plastic panel, etc. Nothing. The items that have been found so far are from parts of the plane that would break off in any impact with the water scenario - no matter how gentle.

A controlled ditching remains the most likely scenario IMHO given what has been found so far (and given the damage to the flaperon trailing edge).

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 73):
The "ditch in one piece" was one of the cornerstones of the "the pilot did it"-theory,

No 'pilot did it' advocates ever said the wings, engines and stabilizers would have remained attached and the plane would perfectly remain in one piece.

Quoting smittythepirate (Reply 74):
Go talk about theories in the other thread...

Report us to the authorities or apply for a job as a moderator if that floats your 777-200ER.

[Edited 2016-03-28 03:44:51]
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LTC8K6
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 11:08 am

If we have a controlled ditching, with the fuselage intact, then we have at least one pilot alive to carry out the ditching.

What happened to all the other people in the plane? If the fuselage is largely intact after the ditching, then we'd expect survivors.

Did the pilot die during the ditching?

If everyone else is dead, how were they killed?

If everyone else is alive, why didn't any FA activate an ELT after the ditching?

If even one FA is alive, they should have activated an ELT.

Saying it was a controlled ditching brings up a host of other questions.

In my mind, a successful controlled ditching, with an intact fuselage, and no distress signal, indicates that the pilot has already killed everyone on board prior to ditching.
 
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777Jet
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 11:24 am

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 76):
If we have a controlled ditching, with the fuselage intact, then we have at least one pilot alive to carry out the ditching.

Yes.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 76):
Did the pilot die during the ditching?

Afterwards or during the ditching.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 76):

If everyone else is dead, how were they killed?

Intentionally cabin depressurization by the rogue pilot.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 76):
In my mind, a successful controlled ditching, with an intact fuselage, and no distress signal, indicates that the pilot has already killed everyone on board prior to ditching.

Correct.

Could have even happened before the plane went silent near IGARI.

I expect the latest that would have happened is 10 mins or so after the turn back towards the Malaysian peninsula.
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WarrenPlatts
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 12:59 pm

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 73):
Then why not put the nose down and crash at the first opportunity, instead of a long journey

It wouldn't be the first time. There was the Craig Button incident, where a fully loaded A-10 Thunderbolt diverted from its flight plan, flew several hundred miles off course using controlled flight inputs until near fuel exhaustion, before crashing in the Colorado Rockies. It took 3 weeks to find the wreckage, far longer than the 5 days it took to find debris from AF447, and this is in the middle of the continental US. The bombs were never found. There was also a Russian example of a stolen military a/c that circled the airbase near Moscow until fuel exhaustion, as well as the hijacked ET961 that also flew to fuel exhaustion and then attempted a ditching in the Indian Ocean.
 
lancelot07
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 3:18 pm

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 78):

Apart from ET 961, which was a totally different matter - was there in any of your other cases any attempt to land or ditch the aircraft ?
See, planes flying for hours and then crashing due to fuel exhaustion happen every now and then, for various reasons.
But flying until the fuel is exhausted + controlled ditching + suicide simply does not add up

Quoting smittythepirate (Reply 74):
Go talk about theories in the other thread... This one is for found parts.

We are discussing possible hints supplied by the parts, not just theories at large.
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 5:48 pm

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 79):
Apart from ET 961, which was a totally different matter - was there in any of your other cases any attempt to land or ditch the aircraft ?
See, planes flying for hours and then crashing due to fuel exhaustion happen every now and then, for various reasons.
But flying until the fuel is exhausted + controlled ditching + suicide simply does not add up.

There is no need to mention the word "suicide" or even the word "pilot", nor is it necessary to discuss ultimate goals or motives, if any, in this thread. Such discussions are inflammatory and are not helpful for the proximate task at hand, which is to find the aircraft. E.g., some people, such as aviation writer Jeff Wise think that Putin is somehow behind the disappearance; in that scenario, one could imagine that instead of spoofing the satellite data, they took it to the SIO, but rendezvoused with a Russian nuclear sub; thus, you'd get ditching but no suicide. Far fetched? Of course. It's not even worth talking about. Once the aircraft is found, all, or at least most, such questions can be answered.

Really, at this point, the question facing the searchers is: Was the ending the result of an uncontrolled dive following flameout, or were there controlled flight inputs?

When discussing the latter alternative, we should always write "controlled flight inputs"; that's the language used in official reports, and it obviates the need to worry about motives.

Quoting lancelot07:
Quoting smittythepirate (Reply 74):Go talk about theories in the other thread... This one is for found parts.

We are discussing possible hints supplied by the parts, not just theories at large.

Exactly. We finally have enough debris objects that the bare bones of a pattern could be emerging. Just as significant IMHO is the fact that there are not very many such objects--that in itself is could be an important clue.

Let's stay focused on the technical details, while leaving out a priori speculations about motives of actual people, and maybe this thread won't get locked like all the others.
 
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Erebus
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 12:15 am

Quoting smittythepirate (Reply 74):
Go talk about theories in the other thread... This one is for found parts.

  

I think it is time for me to abandon this thread too...

I just can't bring myself to sift through the countless posts on theories, circular reasoning, back and forth insults, etc. we've seen repeated in the countless other threads, just to look for any news on debris found related to MH370.
 
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777Jet
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 12:52 am

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 79):
See, planes flying for hours and then crashing due to fuel exhaustion happen every now and then, for various reasons.

Helios. Payne Stewart.

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 79):
But flying until the fuel is exhausted + controlled ditching + suicide simply does not add up

It does if your aim is to make the plane as difficult to find as possible by taking it as far away as possible from where it was supposed to be, to one of the most remote areas on the planet, and then trying to minimize the debris left behind. Death, whether by the impact, suicide, intoxication (galley trolley items), drowning, shark attack, exposure to the elements, whatever, is just unavoidable in this scenario.
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WingedMigrator
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 4:25 am

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 80):
Exactly. We finally have enough debris objects that the bare bones of a pattern could be emerging. Just as significant IMHO is the fact that there are not very many such objects--that in itself is could be an important clue.

The sample of debris suffers from extreme selection bias. Among the debris washed up on distant shores, all of them floated. Among the few that were identified as coming from the aircraft, all of them bore distinctive identifying markings. Everything else is either on the ocean floor or was overlooked as the usual flotsam. This isn't some clue; it's common sense.
 
lancelot07
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 5:26 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 82):
Helios. Payne Stewart.

right! I had those in mind, especially Helios.
A FA managed to enter the cockpit shortly before fuel ran out and tried to (crash) land. Unfortunately, he could not, and the plane crashed.
And i remember the case of a Soviet MIG-23 where the pilot ejected in an emergency over Poland, and the aircraft corrected itself and flew right across Germany and crashed in Belgium.
Weird things can happen, in very rare cases.
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 1:06 pm

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 83):
Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 80):Significant IMHO is the fact that there are not very many such objects--that in itself is could be an important clue.

The sample of debris suffers from extreme selection bias. Among the debris washed up on distant shores, all of them floated. Among the few that were identified as coming from the aircraft, all of them bore distinctive identifying markings. Everything else is either on the ocean floor or was overlooked as the usual flotsam. This isn't some clue; it's common sense.

There are several sources of sample bias:
1. selection bias
2. density bias
3. crash mode bias

Of the three, what we are most interested in #3: in particular, the energy of the crash will affect the character of the debris.

A high energy crash should result in a crash site relatively close to the 7th arc: we should expect the initial pool of floating objects to be measured in the thousands; the objects in general will tend to be small sized (cf. Silk Air 185); the fuselage would break apart, releasing interior objects that can float. Moreover, the range of debris objects should be bilaterally symmetrical in their distribution.

A low(er) energy crash resulting from controlled flight inputs would tend lose parts from the trailing edges of control surfaces (a la US Airways 1549); the overall number of pieces should be much less, perhaps on the order of 100 or so; some larger pieces would not be unexpected. Depending on which side impacted the water first, some bilateral asymmetry in the distribution of found parts could be expected. Also, the crash site could be up to 130 nm below the 7th arc.

As for density bias, as the sieving in this case is due to the density, and it's going to be present in any overwater crash. For exterior objects, these will mostly be composite materials, and as such tend to be concentrated on control surfaces. So at least for debris objects deriving from the exterior, the mere fact that the found objects float can't really distinguish between high and low energy impacts.

The big question in my mind is why more objects have not been found. Drift studies show that roughly 20% of all floating debris should have washed up on a beach somewhere already. If there were "thousands" of objects as some contend, then hundreds of objects should have washed up by now. If there were only a hundred objects, then only a few tens of objects should have washed up.

The question is whether selection bias could account for the dearth of found objects so far even if a surfeit of objects has washed up?

Sources of selection bias: (1) income/education of finder; (2) population density; (3) presence or absence of trash collection; (4) formal search parties; (5) media intensity; (6) presence or absence of distinctive markings.

Treating these in no particular order, it is striking that of the African finds, they were all found by relatively well-off, white people: two were foreign tourists, one was a professional archeologist. Drift studies show that the debris should be concentrated in Madagascar, southern Somalia, Kenya, Mozambique, and to a lesser extent South Africa. Of course Somalia is pretty much a no-go zone these days. In Madagascar, the average person makes do with $2/day. In Kenya, the main attractions are the interior national parks, and recent terrorist attacks have drastically slashed the number of tourists visiting the last couple of years. Mozambique has fantastic beaches, but the country suffers from a lack of basic infrastructure.

On the other hand, South Africa and Australia are modern countries. Australia is famous for its beach-combing, outdoors-loving culture. Drift studies suggest that perhaps 4-5% of objects should have washed up in Australia. If there were "thousands" of objects, then at least 100 objects should have washed ashore in Oz. Yet nothing has been found, despite extensive coverage of MH370 in the media there.

As for South Africa, certainly the public there has been sensitized by the recent finds, as evidenced here by the fellow who found the porta-potty toilet. Yet nothing else besides the Rolls-Royce object has been found.

Formal searches: there have been few. I think Malaysia dispatched a team to Mozambique. Nothing has been found. There were extensive formal searches in Reunion, Mauritius, and possibly Rodriquez. Nothing more has been found there, the "cheat line" object found by Mssr. Begue notwithstanding.

Certainly more formal searches could be undertaken for a tiny fraction of the cost of the $100 million underwater search. I would suggest a formal search of the NE coast of Madagascar could potentially be productive.

As for lettering, my experience looking at the Aircraft Maintenance Manual is that virtually every part on the exterior has a 5 letter code stenciled on it somewhere. To be sure, all three finders of the African objects report that it was the markings that really piqued there interest. On the other hand, at this time, people know what to look for: honeycombed aluminum sandwiched between composite skins.

The lack of reports from places like Madagascar and Somalia could be explained by selection bias. However, the lack of more reports from South Africa and Australia are really hard to explain on the basis of selection bias. If there were a lot more objects to be found there, they would be found. Therefore, the lack of such objects represents a real pattern IMHO.

[Edited 2016-03-29 06:11:05]
 
lancelot07
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 2:46 pm

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 85):
Drift studies show that roughly 20% of all floating debris should have washed up on a beach somewhere already. If there were "thousands" of objects as some contend, then hundreds of objects should have washed up by now.

The coastline in question is very long (the coast of Madagascar alone is 3000 miles long!), and it is mostly sparsely populated. It was a stroke of luck that the flaperon was washed ashore in Reunion, where they clean beaches.
Parts may be there, but are unfound and / or unidentified..

[Edited 2016-03-29 07:49:05]
 
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litz
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 3:33 pm

Don't forget when we're talking about "ditching" here, there have been exactly three successful water landings of commercial jetliners ...

1) the TU-124 in the Neva River
2) Garuda Indonesia 421
3) US 1549

(technically I guess Japan Airlines Flight 350 could be considered as well, but that wasn't intentional)

All others resulted in at least partial fuselage separation that would (or did) eject cabin contents into the water.

Note that all of the above were into rivers, none were on open ocean.
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 3:35 pm



Quoting lancelot:

The coastline in question is very long (the coast of Madagascar alone is 3000 miles long!), and it is mostly sparsely populated. It was a stroke of luck that the flaperon was washed ashore in Reunion, where they clean beaches.
Parts may be there, but are unfound and / or unidentified..

I don't doubt that there are still undiscovered debris objects somewhere. But there are probably not hundreds of them. Yes, Madagascar has long stretches of sparsely populated, undeveloped beaches, but there are also numerous tourist resorts scattered about. If hundreds of debris objects were washing ashore there, it seems like at least a few should be found.

Also your argument doesn't touch the fact that more objects haven't been found in Australia or South Africa.

Re: ditchings: ET961 was nearly successful. If hadn't hit that reef, the fuselage may not have come apart...

[Edited 2016-03-29 08:38:12]
 
lancelot07
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 3:58 pm

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 88):
but there are also numerous tourist resorts scattered about.

not in Madagascar. Not in Mozambique, not in Tansania. The east coast of South Africa isn't exactly Miami Beach either.
The Australians here might let us know their opinion on their west and south coasts.
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Sat Apr 02, 2016 1:40 am

Wow! Another debris object has been found it looks like on the island of Rodriguez by off-duty cop from Reunion on vacation Jean Dominique Vitry: this time a part of an internal bulkhead.

Here is the object next to a photo of a partition:


And here are closeups:



Note the decorative pattern is virtually identical. This looks like a real match. Thanks to Don Thompson @GuardedDon and Mike Exner @Airlandseaman #MH370 for pointing out the pattern.

And here are a couple of news articles from Mauritius and Reunion; the story's been floating around for over 24 hours, but has not yet been picked up by the English MSM, I guess probably because everybody, like me, thought it was a rudder off a boat...

http://www.lexpress.mu/article/27881...igues-decouverte-dun-debris-davion
http://www.clicanoo.re/517170-un-cou...is-sur-une-plage-de-rodrigues.html

Very interesting....
 
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kanban
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Sat Apr 02, 2016 3:31 am

OK it's an interior panel with the same patterned surface... however it is not the same panel as the yellow one.. although turning it 180 degrees offers more similarities. It would be nice to see the back side where the part numbers/color codes/and even serial numbers are
 
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AirlineCritic
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Sat Apr 02, 2016 4:21 am

Interesting... I agree though with kanban that it is not exactly the same panel or at least orientation. Better pictures needed.
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Sat Apr 02, 2016 5:10 am

Quoting kanban (Reply 91):
OK it's an interior panel with the same patterned surface... however it is not the same panel as the yellow one.. although turning it 180 degrees offers more similarities.
Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 92):
... I agree though with kanban that it is not exactly the same panel or at least orientation.

It's the same panel: the pattern is exact. I wish I was better at photo editing, but this is what I got--you can kind of see it:

http://i.imgur.com/KarjE58.png
http://i.imgur.com/J8Ab7CK.png

The little arrows point out the same repeating kanji-like figure--from there you can see how the other lines match up as well.

Quoting kanban (Reply 91):
It would be nice to see the back side where the part numbers/color codes/and even serial numbers are
Quoting kanban (Reply 91):
Better pictures needed.

Agreed. No doubt there will be some in the next day or two. Will forward any I find.
 
lancelot07
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Sat Apr 02, 2016 5:44 am

Quoting WarrenPlatts (Reply 93):

The pattern is the same. But i wonder about the curvature on the left and the kink on top and maybe on the right.
Also, the left edge seems to be tapered. (referring to the pictures in #90)
 
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TheFlyingDisk
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Sat Apr 02, 2016 6:07 am

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 94):
But i wonder about the curvature on the left and the kink on top and maybe on the right.
Also, the left edge seems to be tapered. (referring to the pictures in #90)

The curvature & tapering could mean that it came from the left/right side of the bulkhead.
I FLY KLM+ALASKA+QATAR+MALAYSIA+AIRASIA+MALINDO
 
WarrenPlatts
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Sat Apr 02, 2016 6:42 am

Here's a gif file with the two photos overlaid that shows the pattern unmistakably:

http://i.imgur.com/6qXPz41.gif
 
lancelot07
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Sat Apr 02, 2016 7:56 am

Quoting TheFlyingDisk (Reply 95):
The curvature & tapering could mean that it came from the left/right side of the bulkhead.

I really am puzzled by the concave curvature. There is no obvious reason for that kind of curve inside a plane, one would expect it to be convex.
The tapering may not be tapered at all, but bent.
 
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Siren
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Sat Apr 02, 2016 12:02 pm

Well, that pretty much settles it. We should be finding debris from the plane's interior now., just a matter of time before it's located.

I wonder what implications this has for an underwater search - if we have pieces like this, it may suggest that the plane broke up fairly completely (speculation, I know), and might not be in large segments on the ocean floor. If that was the case, I would think the largest surviving components would likely be the RR Trent engine cores? Even smaller needle in a very large haystack.

I have my suspicions that the wreckage will simply never be located - a historical footnote - until sometime in the 2060s at which point they'll be laying a fiber optic communications cable from Perth to Port Louis, and the line gets snagged on Trent compressor blade unexpectedly...

I do wonder what the lifetime of the solid state memory of the data recorders are in deep water - how many years later would it be possible to retrieve data from them?
 
lancelot07
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RE: Yet Another New MH370 Part?

Sat Apr 02, 2016 12:28 pm

Quoting Siren (Reply 98):
I wonder what implications this has for an underwater search - if we have pieces like this, it may suggest that the plane broke up fairly completely (speculation, I know), and might not be in large segments on the ocean floor

In the case of AF 447, interior parts were found floating soon after the crash. But the wreck still was found more or less in one piece 2 years later.
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