777ER
Head Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 10067
Joined: Fri Dec 19, 2003 5:04 pm

Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Sun Mar 20, 2016 4:23 am

Welcome to the 138th edition of the Australian Aviation Threads.

Link to thread 137 Australian Aviation Thread Part 137 (by qf789 Feb 29 2016 in Civil Aviation)
Head Forum Moderator
[email protected]
Flown: 1900D,S340,Q300,AT72-5/6,DC3,CR2/7,E145,E70/75/90,A319/20/21,A332/3,A359,A380,F100,B717,B733/4/8/9,B742/4,B752/3,B763,B772/3, B789
With: NZ,SJ,QF,JQ,EK,VA,AA,UA,DL,FL,AC,FJ,SQ,TG,PR
 
User avatar
mariner
Posts: 19473
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2001 7:29 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Sun Mar 20, 2016 5:33 am

From the previous thread - quoting post #205 by Planesmart:

"Key shareholders have provided financial stability, but have almost certainly imposed 'conservative' business models.

Wonder what JetBlue and Virgin America would look and behave like, if they had Air NZ, Singapore and Etihad as cornerstone shareholders?"


Your point is completely valid - the Virgin Australia situation could not happen in the US, where concepts of foreign ownership are much more stringent.

Virgin America's first application for a US AOC was rejected by the DOT over concerns of foreign control or influence (specifically SRB//Virgin Group) and the airline had to jump through financial burning hoops - even to sack its first CEO - to prove that it was a good US citizen and get the second application approved.

So US start-up airlines have to be creative/innovative to compete in what is a very crowded market, without the possibility of any directive or financial cushioning from a foreign owner.

mariner

[Edited 2016-03-19 22:36:15]
aeternum nauta
 
DeltaB717
Posts: 1692
Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2012 3:49 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Sun Mar 20, 2016 7:30 am

QantasLink B717 VH-YQY ferried ADL-BNE this afternoon as QJE6200. Due to begin revenue service soon, no doubt... have been told SYD-HTI on Tuesday but then there's the question of why BNE. All will no doubt be revealed soon!
 
User avatar
EK413
Posts: 5330
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2003 3:11 pm

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Sun Mar 20, 2016 7:36 am

From the previous discussion thread...

*QF to codeshare on Air North services from Wellcamp http://australianaviation.com.au/201...-on-airnorths-new-wellcamp-routes/
* TT521 emergency landing in MEL, smoke in cabin, passenger numbers are conflicting from news articles, some say 60 others say up to 90 http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/dra...y/5ef13fd5df78f303dacca822384a7576
* On going discussions surrounding ID checks
* Fly Corporate announce the introduction of a direct air service between Coffs Harbour and Brisbane.
Starting on April 11, flights will depart Coffs Harbour from Monday to Saturday and depart Brisbane from Sunday to Friday.
* QR908 inaugural flight DOH-SYD operated by 77W A7-BAO
* SYD getting seasonal QR A380 from June 2016 www.ausbt.com.au/qatar-airways-to-fl...=flipper&utm_campaign=home-flipper
* Speculation that QR will add a 5th Australian destination by the end of the year.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/bus...y/a613cd5f68611f3cd923cb004909809f
http://centreforaviation.com/news/qa...ustralia-in-the-near-future-531106
* JQ BNE-HNL getting the chop to be replaced with BNE-HKT
* & ID discussions continue...
* Talks that JAL are expecting to launch Melbourne as their next Australian destination with evening arrival/departures
* NH state there will be no Australian expansion before 2019. MEL/PER/ other cities aren't even on their radar.
* Speculation a new QF A330 international destination / route will be announced shortly
* Malindo Air will increase PER from 11 to 12 weekly from 2nd April 2016
OD151 KUL0825 – 1410PER 738 D
OD155 KUL2315 – 0505+1PER 738 x23
OD156 PER0735 – 1330KUL 738 x34
OD152 PER1500 – 2055KUL 738 D
http://airlineroute.net/2016/03/08/od-per-s16/
* Eva air send their Hello Kitty jet B-16311 to BNE. 2nd ever visit.
* EK flights either delayed by a few hours or cancelled due to bad weather in DXB, EK412 to SYD, EK434 to BNE & EK406 to MEL were delayed up to 4 hours, while EK424 to PER was cancelled
* EK412 diverts to CMB, due to be medical http://twitter.com/hashtag/EK412?src=hash
* VN will operate 787-9 to both SYD & MEL on a daily basis from 29 October 2016
VN781 SGN2110 – 0925+1MEL 787 D
VN780 MEL1125 – 1540SGN 787 D
VN773 SGN2130 – 0950+1SYD 787 D
VN772 SYD1150 – 1615SGN 787 D
http://airlineroute.net/2016/03/10/vn-australia-w16/
http://www.ausbt.com.au/vietnam-airl...mliner-flights-to-sydney-melbourne
* Hawaiian considering HNL-MEL. If it happens likely to start in 2017 http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...y/ff94ffc374ad1c35e4373181d1c6c48e
* Interview with VA's new Chairperson, Elizabeth Bryan http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business
* CAPA Malaysia's Malindo Air is planning to commence flights from Kuala Lumpur to Brisbane and Melbourne via Bali in 2H2016 Source - CAPA
* First of the new lounges at BNE open 16 March with the New NZ Lounge opening on Level Four http://www.ausbt.com.au/first-look-n...land-star-alliance-brisbane-lounge
* Iranian VIP A340 & UAE Dreamliner at Sydney Airport
* Brisbane Airport, voted as Best Airport in Australia/Pacific at the 2016 Skytrax World Airport Awards. http://www.worldairportawards.com/Aw...ds/airport_award_winners_2016.html
* QF117/118 to run daily from April 4 to May 1 and from July 18 to October 29 & go back to six days a week (Friday) from May 2 to July 17. The extra flight will use an A330. http://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-to-ru...-double-daily-flights-to-hong-kong
* VA's first B77W refit VH-VPD commences in the USA with pictures of its gutted cabin on VA's Facebook page.
* UA98 LAX-MEL diverts to HNL with a maintenance issue http://twitter.com/hashtag/UA98?src=hash
* Scoot B772 9V-OTC ferried SIN-ASP as SCO6161 for storage at ASP alongside her SQ sisters 9V-SVA and -SVD.
* JB vs AJ discussions
* RAAF fly a C-17 among other displays at the MEL Formula 1 Grand Prix. Source: http://www.grandprix.com.au/node/2007
* QF B744 VH-OEB in HKG for maintenance checks and would this include the cabin refresh announced for OEB/OJM?

EK413
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
User avatar
qf789
Moderator
Posts: 9609
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:42 pm

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Sun Mar 20, 2016 5:08 pm

Quoting EK413 (Reply 3):
VN will operate 787-9 to both SYD & MEL on a daily basis from 29 October 2016
VN781 SGN2110 – 0925+1MEL 787 D
VN780 MEL1125 – 1540SGN 787 D
VN773 SGN2130 – 0950+1SYD 787 D
VN772 SYD1150 – 1615SGN 787 D

787-9 service has been pushed back to December now

http://airlineroute.net/2016/03/17/vn-sydmel-w16update2/

In regards to VA, there is an article in todays AFR

VA aims for $500 million balance sheet fix

http://www.afr.com/business/virgin-a...n-balancesheet-fix-20160317-gnlo8q
Forum Moderator
 
User avatar
mariner
Posts: 19473
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2001 7:29 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:36 pm

Quoting qf789 (Reply 4):
In regards to VA, there is an article in todays AFR

VA aims for $500 million balance sheet fix

I suppose the question now is how much more money are the foreign shareholders prepared to pump into the airline, and at what cost?

It has to be of resonance to CEO Luxon, at Air NZ, because, as the article says:

http://www.afr.com/business/virgin-a...n-balancesheet-fix-20160317-gnlo8q

"Air New Zealand, in particular, has a sharp financial focus and doesn't want its investment in Virgin to be viewed as Ansett Mark 2 in its home market."

There is also speculation that JB may not be around for the longest time:

"His decision in October to join the Coca-Cola Amatil board as a non-executive director left some in the market questioning how long he will stick with the airline.

With Borghetti having led many previous recapitalisations at Virgin, the market wouldn't be shocked if this effort was his last."


mariner
aeternum nauta
 
User avatar
mariner
Posts: 19473
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2001 7:29 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:56 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 5):
I suppose the question now is how much more money are the foreign shareholders prepared to pump into the airline, and at what cost?

And apparently, we have the answer - $425 million:

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU160...olders-providing-a425-mln-loan.htm

"Air NZ among Virgin shareholders providing A$425 mln loan

Air New Zealand and its fellow airline shareholders in Virgin Australia will provide one-year funding of A$425 million, giving the Australian airline room to review its capital structure."


mariner
aeternum nauta
 
User avatar
EK413
Posts: 5330
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2003 3:11 pm

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Sun Mar 20, 2016 11:20 pm

Quoting qf789 (Reply 4):
787-9 service has been pushed back to December now

  was really looking forward to the VN B789's being introduced to the SYD route, the A350 would've been sweet! Hopefully by the time the December launch date arrives VN revaluate and utilise the A350  

EK413
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
travelhound
Posts: 1923
Joined: Fri May 23, 2008 9:13 pm

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Sun Mar 20, 2016 11:43 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 6):
"Air NZ among Virgin shareholders providing A$425 mln loan

Air New Zealand and its fellow airline shareholders in Virgin Australia will provide one-year funding of A$425 million, giving the Australian airline room to review its capital structure."

Wow!

Even though I was expecting this, I wasn't expecting it this soon. Does this suggest the Virgin business is in worse shape than what currently seems apparent.

...or in retrospect, JB and his team could be ahead of the game!

[Edited 2016-03-20 16:49:48]
 
User avatar
qf789
Moderator
Posts: 9609
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:42 pm

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Mon Mar 21, 2016 1:56 am

QF to increase US services from 13 Dec 16 to 24 Jan 17

SYD-LAX to go from daily to 9 weekly

QF011 SYD1130 – 0625LAX 388 D
QF017 SYD1825 – 1305LAX 744 57

QF012 LAX2230 – 0830+2SYD 388 D
QF018 LAX2335 – 0915+2SYD 744 57

SYD-SFO to go from 6 weekly to daily (subject to government approval)

QF073 SYD1500 – 0930SFO 744 D
QF074 SFO2325 – 0900+2SYD 744 D

http://airlineroute.net/2016/03/21/qf-laxsfo-dec16/
Forum Moderator
 
Gemuser
Posts: 5044
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Mon Mar 21, 2016 2:18 am

Quoting qf789 (Reply 9):

QF012 LAX2230 – 0830+2SYD 388 D
QF018 LAX2335 – 0915+2SYD 744 57

Talk about wing tip to wing tip! More A380s!

Gemuser
DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
 
smi0006
Posts: 2446
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Mon Mar 21, 2016 4:45 am

Quoting qf789 (Reply 9):
QF011 SYD1130 – 0625LAX 388 D

Interesting! I wonder if DFW will stay as a daily A380 at this time. Does HKG normally see an A380 T this time of year too? I still think QF could use 1 or 2 more A380s. Enough for seasonal increases, maintenance coverage, and cabin refit coverage, with eventual traffic growth in mind too.
 
User avatar
qf789
Moderator
Posts: 9609
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:42 pm

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Mon Mar 21, 2016 4:58 am

Quoting smi0006 (Reply 11):
Interesting! I wonder if DFW will stay as a daily A380 at this time. Does HKG normally see an A380 T this time of year too? I still think QF could use 1 or 2 more A380s. Enough for seasonal increases, maintenance coverage, and cabin refit coverage, with eventual traffic growth in mind too.

When QF operated the additional service to DFW during DEC/JAN just gone they operated the HKG service 5 weekly with the A388, the other 2 days with the 744 so I guess we will see something similar here. I would expect DFW to stay at daily, with it going daily at the end of April, the A388 for the extra service was coming off LAX.
Forum Moderator
 
qantas747
Posts: 377
Joined: Wed Mar 29, 2000 12:51 pm

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Mon Mar 21, 2016 5:13 am

Quoting smi0006 (Reply 11):
Interesting! I wonder if DFW will stay as a daily A380 at this time. Does HKG normally see an A380 T this time of year too? I still think QF could use 1 or 2 more A380s. Enough for seasonal increases, maintenance coverage, and cabin refit coverage, with eventual traffic growth in mind too.

I would think with HKG going to double daily there would be no need for the seasonal A380 increase. if anything, they could likely upgauge the second daily 330 to 744 for additional capacity as required.

I agree that another 3-4 380's would be quite useful (upgauge BNE-LAX-NYC, SYD-HKG/NRT) but I think its increasingly less likely. Realistically, where else other than LAX,DFW,LHR will these birds be useful?

I would be expecting more 789 orders (perhaps with the view to have BNE-LAX, BNE-DFW as two 789's)

Also- rumour has it that AA is looking at another AU destination? Do they have 789's? perhaps they'll start DFW-MEL that QF has been mooting?
 
SYDSpotter
Posts: 806
Joined: Tue Oct 30, 2012 9:10 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Mon Mar 21, 2016 8:50 am

Quoting travelhound (Reply 8):
Wow!

Even though I was expecting this, I wasn't expecting it this soon. Does this suggest the Virgin business is in worse shape than what currently seems apparent.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviat...-shareholders-20160320-gnmvcu.html

Not necessarily, the article states that VA has about $500m in unrestricted cash, the additional loan is there to give them additional buffer as they have about $600m of debt which matures in the 12 months. VA may or may not be able to get those loans refinanced, if the lenders required repayment, then VA would need to stump up the cash. So assuming that VA will generate positive cash flows in the next 12 months, it would mean they would be able to repay those outstanding loans using it's existing cash balance although this would leave it with very little wriggle room if the market deteriorates in the next 12 months. So the new shareholder loan gives it the ability to draw on funds should it need it. The new loan doesn't mean that VA needed $425m immediately, it just means they access to an additional $425m line of credit should they need it (e.g. to repay those outstanding loans).

The article also mentions there is an ongoing "capital structure review", this can only mean one thing - an additional share capital raising. So ultimately SQ/NZ/EY will be stumping up more cash. They are probably hoping VA's results continue to improve over the next 12 months so that any additional equity investment can be justified to their own shareholders (i.e. we're investing in a growing profitable business). The recent VA profit result whilst an improvement over previous years, didn't exactly set the world on fire. So the market will want to see continued and improved profitability before being receptive to any additional capital raising.
319_320_321_332_333_359_388 / 734_737_738_743_744_762_763_772_773_77W_788_789
 
Flyingsottsman
Posts: 739
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 12:32 pm

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:28 am

Quoting qantas747 (Reply 13):
Also- rumour has it that AA is looking at another AU destination? Do they have 789's? perhaps they'll start DFW-MEL that QF has been mooting?

Would be fantastic to see AA at MEL, but would there be enough business for AA to run a service to MEL?
 
Bluebird191
Posts: 371
Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2011 2:51 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:33 am

What about an AA takeover of QF15/16? I doubt that will happen as it's too important for QF to give up, unless AA want to try something out of the box and look at SFO-BNE before UA get their foot in the door.
 
Flyingsottsman
Posts: 739
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 12:32 pm

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:50 am

Quoting Bluebird191 (Reply 16):
What about an AA takeover of QF15/16? I doubt that will happen as it's too important for QF to give up, unless AA want to try something out of the box and look at SFO-BNE before UA get their foot in the door.

Yeah I would think that BNE would get the nod before MEL BNE is starting to attract airlines now.
All the years that UA have been operating to Australia, how come they have never looked at BNE before and what's the possibility
of Delta opening up either BNE or MEL?
 
travelhound
Posts: 1923
Joined: Fri May 23, 2008 9:13 pm

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:57 am

Quoting SYDSpotter (Reply 14):
Not necessarily

This story will develop over the next couple of days. I think the point is VA have problems trying to generate cash. As such they aren't in too good a shape. If we consider the just borrowed $125m and they are now adding another loan facility for $425m, they are borrowing more than their current cash reserves.

I just hope VA are generating cash. Their future borrowings will be dependent upon it!
 
SYDSpotter
Posts: 806
Joined: Tue Oct 30, 2012 9:10 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:22 am

Quoting travelhound (Reply 18):
This story will develop over the next couple of days.

I don't think a lot is going to happen over the next few days. The key time period will be the next couple of months, the VA June accounts will show how much (if any) VA has drawn down on the $425m facility that SQ/NZ/EY have provided. If they've drawn down on the entire amount, then VA are well and truly neck deep in it.

Their most recent 31 Dec 2015 accounts show they generated $10m of cash flow from operating activities on $2.6bn of revenue. This compares with QF generating $1.3bn of cash from operating activities on revenue of $7.7bn. So certainly not pretty reading. But as I said earlier, the 30 June accounts for VA will be interesting to see.

Either way, I would hate to know what sort of position VA would be in if they didn't have SQ/NZ/EY as cornerstone investors.
319_320_321_332_333_359_388 / 734_737_738_743_744_762_763_772_773_77W_788_789
 
ben175
Posts: 751
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2008 12:44 pm

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:25 am

If I had my way it would be AA extending AKL to PER and taking over QF's seasonal service to go year round thrice weekly - but I know pigs will fly before this happens!

My guess is LAX-BNE.

[Edited 2016-03-21 03:26:45]
 
IndianicWorld
Posts: 3309
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 11:32 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:35 am

I would say the chances of more North America-BNE flights at this point would likely be a longer shot.

Mid this year there will be:
QF LAX Daily 744
VA LAX Daily 77W
AC YVR Daily 788

That's a fair jump over the last couple of years, so we will see how that transpires first.

My guess would be AA either to start DFW-MEL or LAX-MEL with 789 to take over the additional flights from QF. The former would only really be an option though I would suspect if QF wanted to utilise it's limited 789 fleet at the beginning on other routes first.
 
travelhound
Posts: 1923
Joined: Fri May 23, 2008 9:13 pm

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:37 am

Quoting SYDSpotter (Reply 19):
I don't think a lot is going to happen over the next few days.

I think we will have more commentary over the next couple of days.

In reality this story has been developing over the last year. I have been tracking their passenger load performance for more than a year and it hasn't been pretty.

We will have to wait and see what comes out of it!
 
User avatar
eta unknown
Posts: 2486
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2001 5:03 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Mon Mar 21, 2016 12:29 pm

Quoting Flyingsottsman (Reply 17):
All the years that UA have been operating to Australia, how come they have never looked at BNE before and what's the possibility
of Delta opening up either BNE or MEL?

Well actually... UA did serve BNE in the 90's! Service was not daily... sometimes the 744 LAX-SYD flight continued to BNE, sometimes MEL. SYD-BNE sector had a high cancellation rate and lasted no more than a year.

As for DL- they really don't care that much about this market. If they were really interested BNE or MEL would be on the table by now and BNE wouldn't necessarily require the 77L. DL has the JV with VA and is happy for them to operate more of the flights. As has been correctly stated on these boards before, VA needs DL a lot more than DL needs VA.
 
User avatar
mariner
Posts: 19473
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2001 7:29 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Mon Mar 21, 2016 7:03 pm

Quoting SYDSpotter (Reply 19):
Either way, I would hate to know what sort of position VA would be in if they didn't have SQ/NZ/EY as cornerstone investors.

  


It is slightly astonishing to me that the airline has been allowed to arrive at this point - there have been warning signs. With the last loan, the three sugar daddies demanded board seats, so I assume that the price this time, or part of it, is the review, of the capital structure and of and of the operation, and I assume it has some teeth.

I don't know how they fix it, and some of the commentaries are already speculating, but it's the same old ground. Taking it private is quite popular as is going to the market for more money, either of which has its own problems. As to the operation itself, dropping long haul international might be a start, but clearly something has to give. To me, the most interesting comment so far came from the original article in the Fin Review, before the new loan happened:

http://www.afr.com/business/virgin-a...n-balancesheet-fix-20160317-gnlo8q

"But in financial terms, Virgin's margins were higher when it was the old budget carrier Virgin Blue."

Perhaps they need to go some way back to basics, to what made the airline attractive in the first place.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
Sydscott
Posts: 3468
Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2003 11:50 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Mon Mar 21, 2016 8:57 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 24):

"But in financial terms, Virgin's margins were higher when it was the old budget carrier Virgin Blue."

Perhaps they need to go some way back to basics, to what made the airline attractive in the first place.

Perhaps they need to stop trying to be Qantas Mark II and go back to being Virgin?

Quoting qantas747 (Reply 13):
I would be expecting more 789 orders (perhaps with the view to have BNE-LAX, BNE-DFW as two 789's)

I've long said on this board that that is what will ultimately happen at BNE. It's just a matter of time. BNE-LAX will never be an A380 and QF will not take the last 8 A380's they have on order unless it is for replacement of existing frames.

Quoting qantas747 (Reply 13):
Also- rumour has it that AA is looking at another AU destination? Do they have 789's? perhaps they'll start DFW-MEL that QF has been mooting?

I doubt American will be starting any new routes to this part of the world this year. From LAX they already have AKL starting on June 23rd and HKG starting on September 7th. American is due to take delivery of 8 787's this year of which 4 are 787-8's and 4 are 787-9's. Of the 4 9's 1 is due in the third quarter and 3 are due in the fourth quarter of the year. Given that AA has been focused on putting the current 787's onto routes going to North Asia, I'd say you will continue to see that happen with these deliveries other than the 788's which will be used for AKL.
 
User avatar
mariner
Posts: 19473
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2001 7:29 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:13 pm

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 25):
Perhaps they need to stop trying to be Qantas Mark II and go back to being Virgin?

That would be my vote - not that I have a vote, of course - but if Tiger is answer, as it seems it may be, what is the point of Qantas Mark II?

mariner

[Edited 2016-03-21 14:51:06]
aeternum nauta
 
User avatar
allrite
Posts: 2585
Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2007 11:28 pm

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:43 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 26):
That would be my vote - not that I have a vote, of course - but if Tiger is answer, as it seems it may be, what is the point of Qantas Mark II?

But how attractive would that be to the international owners? Naturally they want VA to be profitable, but old Virgin probably wouldn't suit their standards, with the exception of the more irreverent NZ.

What do the foreign partners require out of VA and how does that compare to the pure domestic market?

What are VA's stressors? Does it need to cut its network? How about its services outside the major capitals?
I like artificial banana essence!
 
IndianicWorld
Posts: 3309
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 11:32 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:34 pm

Quoting allrite (Reply 27):
What are VA's stressors? Does it need to cut its network? How about its services outside the major capitals?

Ultimately VA may need to move away from the leisure heavy routes and expand Tiger's reach into those non-core sectors.

The main capital city connect routes for the most part are where their sweet spot would be, but routes outside of that are more suited to TT service.

It has started to make network changes but it hasn't exactly moved quickly in that regard.
 
User avatar
mariner
Posts: 19473
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2001 7:29 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:42 pm

Quoting allrite (Reply 27):
But how attractive would that be to the international owners? Naturally they want VA to be profitable, but old Virgin probably wouldn't suit their standards, with the exception of the more irreverent NZ.

Maybe that was the reason for the sharp reminder by Elizabeth Byran to the foreign shareholders - as members of the board, it is incumbent on them to do what is right for Virgin Australia, not for their own airlines?

If some commentators are right and Virgin has a share issue to the public, it is possible that the foreign holdings may be reduced anyway, through dilution - or from choice.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
User avatar
qf789
Moderator
Posts: 9609
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:42 pm

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Tue Mar 22, 2016 12:48 am

CHC-PER seasonal flight for next summer has been upgraded to 787-9 instead of 763

http://www.ausbt.com.au/air-new-zeal...=flipper&utm_campaign=home-flipper
Forum Moderator
 
ben175
Posts: 751
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2008 12:44 pm

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Tue Mar 22, 2016 3:01 am

Is everything set for TT to launch its Bali flights tomorrow? Haven't heard much news.
 
IndianicWorld
Posts: 3309
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 11:32 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Tue Mar 22, 2016 3:02 am

Quoting ben175 (Reply 31):
Is everything set for TT to launch its Bali flights tomorrow? Haven't heard much news.

They have had the aircraft ready for a while so I would assume sall should be right to go.
 
Sydscott
Posts: 3468
Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2003 11:50 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Tue Mar 22, 2016 3:24 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 29):
Maybe that was the reason for the sharp reminder by Elizabeth Byran to the foreign shareholders - as members of the board, it is incumbent on them to do what is right for Virgin Australia, not for their own airlines?

Considering the money at stake by the Foreign Airlines what's right for them is right for Virgin Australia. That's the reality.

Quoting mariner (Reply 29):
If some commentators are right and Virgin has a share issue to the public, it is possible that the foreign holdings may be reduced anyway, through dilution - or from choice.

Given the control exercised by the 3 Airlines and Virgin Group, the general public would be total mugs to buy into a share issue. Realistically the only buyers of Virgin Stock are SQ, NZ and/or EY.
 
User avatar
mariner
Posts: 19473
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2001 7:29 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Tue Mar 22, 2016 4:54 am

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 33):
Considering the money at stake by the Foreign Airlines what's right for them is right for Virgin Australia. That's the reality.

Sure, but that may be an unpalatable reality for some to face and in legal terms it's a contradiction. The board of directors is usually there to protect the interests of the shareholders - LOL - which they could claim they have been doing.

I suspect she was "defending Virgin" (or JB's vision for Virgin) because while it's all very well that she - and JB - claim that it has been a very successful transformation, the balance is clearly saying otherwise.

mariner

[Edited 2016-03-21 22:16:04]
aeternum nauta
 
IndianicWorld
Posts: 3309
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 11:32 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Tue Mar 22, 2016 5:06 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 34):
I suspect she was "defending Virgin" (or JB's vision for Virgin) because while it's all very well that she - and JB - claim that it has been a very successful transformation, the balance is clearly saying otherwise.

Very true.

The point that usually comes up is an increase in corporate accounts and yield potential, but a reduction in their attractiveness to leisure pax isn't helping. The increasing cost base is making some routes very hard to make work.

The only way to overcome that is to grow the only vehicle they have at their disposal, which is TT. A low cost base that can offer to the leisure market a product they would pay for, other than a premium that VA would expect to offer its own flights.

VA needs to think smarter about what it wants to become, just as another EY linked airline also needs to do the same (AB). Hard choices will need to be made and whether or not this goes against JB's vision will be interesting to see.
 
CXfirst
Posts: 3021
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2007 8:13 pm

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Tue Mar 22, 2016 5:25 am

Quoting ben175 (Reply 31):
Is everything set for TT to launch its Bali flights tomorrow? Haven't heard much news.

Apparently, first week is basically sold out, and has been for a while, with seats available going forward the next few weeks being very low.

However, I'm sure this has to do with the incredibly low fares that they advertised with at the start, so no saying how profitable these flights will be.

-CXfirst
 
IndianicWorld
Posts: 3309
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2001 11:32 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Tue Mar 22, 2016 5:40 am

Quoting CXfirst (Reply 36):
However, I'm sure this has to do with the incredibly low fares that they advertised with at the start, so no saying how profitable these flights will be.

Yeah would be a major factor in that.

Still intrigued to see how this move will work out.

I do expect SYD and BNE to follow the same model at some stage if it does end up showing promising results.
 
DeltaB717
Posts: 1692
Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2012 3:49 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Tue Mar 22, 2016 5:49 am

VH-YQY, the latest QantasLink B717, just popped up on flightaware, scheduled to operate QF1553 BNE-CBR this evening.
 
SYDSpotter
Posts: 806
Joined: Tue Oct 30, 2012 9:10 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Tue Mar 22, 2016 7:56 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 24):
"But in financial terms, Virgin's margins were higher when it was the old budget carrier Virgin Blue."

Which probably isn't all that surprising VA has steadily been growing their cost base as they seek to become more "upmarket". The issue is that haven't been able to translate the higher level of amenities with proportionally higher yields.

Quoting allrite (Reply 27):
But how attractive would that be to the international owners? Naturally they want VA to be profitable, but old Virgin probably wouldn't suit their standards, with the exception of the more irreverent NZ.

What do the foreign partners require out of VA and how does that compare to the pure domestic market?

The old Virgin Blue wouldn't work for SQ/EY/NZ as a domestic partner. Stepping off an international flight with all the frills and then transferring onto a Virgin Blue no-frills flight wouldn't work (and vice versa). Ultimately they want a domestic partner that provides them with feed/transfers which is of a standard equivalent to QF but at the same time still being profitable. It's now just down to JB to try and translate the higher level of amenities into higher yields and therefore improved profitability.


Quoting Sydscott (Reply 33):
Realistically the only buyers of Virgin Stock are SQ, NZ and/or EY.

Yup, given the time/investment to date that SQ/NZ/EY have provided, there is no way they would want their current shareholding diluted. If there was a share issue made available to all shareholders, you're more likely to see their proportionate shareholding increased because of not all the minority shareholders wanting to participate.
319_320_321_332_333_359_388 / 734_737_738_743_744_762_763_772_773_77W_788_789
 
smi0006
Posts: 2446
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Tue Mar 22, 2016 8:47 am

Quoting qf789 (Reply 30):
CHC-PER seasonal flight for next summer has been upgraded to 787-9 instead of 763
Quoting qf789 (Reply 30):

And the 06:15 departure is back with a 789 in September too connecting well with a seamless product to the Americas. 12 789 movements a week isn't too bad a presence even in high season.

I saw another thread re- B6 looking long term at BOS-DUB, Could an A321NEO make CHC-PER? Long way but maybe a better use than a 789. Be good to see AKL-ADL up gauged too offer business class.
 
User avatar
eta unknown
Posts: 2486
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2001 5:03 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Tue Mar 22, 2016 11:43 am

Quoting SYDSpotter (Reply 39):
It's now just down to JB to try and translate the higher level of amenities into higher yields and therefore improved profitability.

And herein could be the problem... if QF charges X dollars, can VA charge more?
Will people pay more and pick VA over QF? My thinking is (but it's just me) no.
But what is the price point with VA's mixed in-flight service message that people will opt for them?

It seems as if now that VA has transformed itself into a quasi QF, by default QF can control the market price. Therefore, VA's wounds are very much self inflicted.
 
User avatar
qf789
Moderator
Posts: 9609
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:42 pm

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Tue Mar 22, 2016 11:57 am

As mentioned in the last thread SYD-HKG will go double daily from 4 April, though it will only operate 13 weekly between 2 May to 17 July (no Friday service for QF117/118 in this period). The Saturday service will not operate under flight numbers QF117/118 but QF83/86 instead. QF83/86 will operate 5-10 minutes behind QF127/128

QF127 SYD1005 – 1720HKG 744 D
QF083 SYD1015 – 1740HKG 333 6
QF117 SYD1115 – 1840HKG 333 7
QF117 SYD1120 – 1845HKG 333 5
QF117 SYD1140 – 1905HKG 333 24
QF117 SYD1215 – 1940HKG 333 13

QF128 HKG2015 – 0715+1SYD 744 D
QF086 HKG2020 – 0745+1SYD 333 6
QF118 HKG2050 – 0815+1SYD 333 24
QF118 HKG2125 – 0850+1SYD 333 57
QF118 HKG2135 – 0900+1SYD 333 13

http://airlineroute.net/2016/03/22/qf-sydhkg-s16/
Forum Moderator
 
User avatar
mariner
Posts: 19473
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2001 7:29 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Tue Mar 22, 2016 7:54 pm

Quoting SYDSpotter (Reply 39):
Stepping off an international flight with all the frills and then transferring onto a Virgin Blue no-frills flight wouldn't work (and vice versa).

For the premium pax, maybe, but I recall that transferring international economy pax were pretty well treated on Virgin Blue - their own meals, for example, of a higher standard, at least when I flew PER-MEL.

Quoting SYDSpotter (Reply 39):
Ultimately they want a domestic partner that provides them with feed/transfers which is of a standard equivalent to QF but at the same time still being profitable.

I'm sure they do want that - our did - but maybe Tiger was the alarm bell and perhaps the foreign shareholders might now settle for an end to the financial hole, however achieved.

Over at Crikey, Ben Sandilands - no friend to AJ's version of Qantas - sums it up in a nutshell:

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalk...of-excellence-gets-another-top-up/

"The painful question for Virgin Australia is whether it needs to reconsider its product strategy and redefine its concepts of where growth, relevance and sustained profitability reside."

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
User avatar
qfvhoqa
Posts: 867
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2012 6:50 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Wed Mar 23, 2016 12:17 am

Quoting SYDSpotter (Reply 39):
The old Virgin Blue wouldn't work for SQ/EY/NZ as a domestic partner. Stepping off an international flight with all the frills and then transferring onto a Virgin Blue no-frills flight wouldn't work (and vice versa).

I'm not so sure it matters that much for short haul.
EK seems happy to send their pax to 3K, EY uses AB and SQ uses B6. None of these codeshares offer a premium cabin, and I would think it's a bigger downgrade from EK F to 3K Y than from SQ F to DJ Y.

Quoting eta unknown (Reply 41):
And herein could be the problem... if QF charges X dollars, can VA charge more?

Generally no they can't, aside from the QF-haters I doubt anyone else would pay more (for Y). The new 77W J seat could attract a premium over the QF SkyBed MkII J seat though. But as you say:

Quoting eta unknown (Reply 41):
by default QF can control the market price.

If you can't control the price of your own product, the only way to increase margin would be to reduce cost. VA haven't been on a downward cost trend for a while.
 
JQflightie
Posts: 548
Joined: Wed Mar 04, 2009 6:18 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Wed Mar 23, 2016 12:26 am

Quoting qfvhoqa (Reply 44):

I'm not so sure it matters that much for short haul.
EK seems happy to send their pax to 3K, EY uses AB and SQ uses B6. None of these codeshares offer a premium cabin, and I would think it's a bigger downgrade from EK F to 3K Y than from SQ F to DJ Y.


On certain flights B6 offer 'Mint' across the country and out of Boston.
When is my next holiday?
 
joffie
Posts: 846
Joined: Sun Mar 26, 2006 5:45 pm

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Wed Mar 23, 2016 1:14 am

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/RBA53

A320 instead of 788
 
User avatar
eta unknown
Posts: 2486
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2001 5:03 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:03 am

Quoting joffie (Reply 46):
A320 instead of 788

There was an engine shutdown an hour out of BWN on the LHR flight end of last week which has thrown the LHR/JED/MEL schedules into chaos. There's enough slack in the schedule for the 4 778's to work when seasonal JED flights aren't operating, but obviously that isn't the case now, so the choice is send an A320 or cancel MEL flights until the 788 is fixed. Wonder when the 5th 788 will be delivered- or is it still only an option (rumour was if RBA didn't want it the Govt. would operate it as part of the royal fleet).
 
User avatar
qfvhoqa
Posts: 867
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2012 6:50 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Wed Mar 23, 2016 4:41 am

Quoting JQflightie (Reply 45):
On certain flights B6 offer 'Mint' across the country and out of Boston.

They do, but I don't think many SQ pax (or EK pax for that matter) would be flying B6 Mint when the options are BOS-LAX/SFO & JFK-LAX/SFO. Who flies LAX-JFK-FRA-SIN with SQ when LAX-NRT-SIN is available?
 
vhebb
Posts: 341
Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2011 5:37 am

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 138

Wed Mar 23, 2016 5:15 am

That QF second daily SYD-HKG I expect will eventually become an afternoon SYD departure daily once better slots become free.

I think it was a case of QF getting whatever slots they could to secure double daily.

Will have to wait and see what the schedule looks like in the NW16 season.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos