777ER
Head Moderator
Topic Author
Posts: 10059
Joined: Fri Dec 19, 2003 5:04 pm

FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 4:26 am

Link to the original thread FlyDubai 738 Crashes On Approach In Russia (by Coal Mar 18 2016 in Civil Aviation)
Head Forum Moderator
[email protected]
Flown: 1900D,S340,Q300,AT72-5/6,DC3,CR2/7,E145,E70/75/90,A319/20/21,A332/3,A359,A380,F100,B717,B733/4/8/9,B742/4,B752/3,B763,B772/3, B789
With: NZ,SJ,QF,JQ,EK,VA,AA,UA,DL,FL,AC,FJ,SQ,TG,PR
 
User avatar
jeta380
Posts: 16
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2005 8:55 am

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 4:40 am

My brother is a 15 year cop. I don't go onto police websites spouting crap about how they're doing it wrong, because I've no idea what in entails.

...and posts like this assist how?

And, you would be one of a very few who don't.

[Edited 2016-03-19 21:42:41]
 
barney captain
Posts: 2219
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2001 5:47 pm

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 4:42 am

FWIW, the 737 has two GA thrust settings - 1 click of TOGA provides roughly 1800FPM climb, the second click provides full thrust.
Southeast Of Disorder
 
spacecadet
Posts: 3462
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2001 3:36 am

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 4:57 am

From the previous thread:

I gave up posting any serious posts years ago, due to being burn't by people who are experts (or so called) in this field.

Actual airline pilots are not "so-called" experts - they are experts. There is nobody who knows more about flying an airliner than an airline pilot. Disputing their firsthand experience or questioning their knowledge on this particular subject would (and does) make anyone look foolish. And if nothing else, simply by labeling them "so-called" experts, you are questioning their knowledge.

We have this discussion here literally every time there's an accident. Asking questions is fine, even informed speculation is fine. But getting into an argument with an airline pilot about whether or not they're an expert in this field is not fine. At that point, before clicking the submit button it's time to sit back and really think about what you're actually trying to do in this thread.
I'm tired of being a wanna-be league bowler. I wanna be a league bowler!
 
User avatar
jumbojim747
Posts: 2426
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 8:05 pm

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 4:57 am

Quoting jeta380 (Reply 1):

Well said.
At the end of the day any crash is a tragety and we are dealing with it by trying to add our 2 bob to the discussion.
If its wrong to do so then im sorry .
Im not a pilot but i love aviation so much im compelled to have my say.
On a wing and a prayer
 
User avatar
DocLightning
Posts: 21549
Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:51 am

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:10 am

So a few people have commented that in at least one of the videos it looks as if the aircraft might have been on fire before impact. I think this was it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhet5XEw26Q

Now, to me, I have to agree, it looks as if maybe a wing is on fire. But then again, it is raining very hard, so I suppose it's possible that the lights are blurred out along the wing from rain on the camera lens.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
User avatar
Navigator
Posts: 869
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2001 2:31 am

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:22 am

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 3):
Actual airline pilots are not "so-called" experts - they are experts. There is nobody who knows more about flying an airliner than an airline pilot. Disputing their firsthand experience or questioning their knowledge on this particular subject would (and does) make anyone look foolish. And if nothing else, simply by labeling them "so-called" experts, you are questioning their knowledge.

Flying a plane means you can fly a plane and you know all about that. It also means you know procedures etc But that does not mean that all pilots are good at investigating or even coming up with ideas of how accidents happen. Most pilots never see an incident in their whole careers. Maybe you need to study accidents to be better at coming up with ideas about what could have happened in an accident. Some pilots have that experience and analythical skill some dont. And you can very well find other people than pilots that have the knowledge that can make them perfectly able to come up with ideas in airplane accidents. So I think both pilots and other people with the right experience can come together and investigate accidents. A combination is always good here. It can even be so that outsiders think outside the box in a way that can benefit discussions about accidents. This is my view  

[Edited 2016-03-19 23:24:13]
747-400/747-200/L1011/DC-10/DC-9/DC-8/MD-80/MD90/A340/A330/A300/A310/A321/A320/A319/767/757/737/727/HS-121/CV990/CV440/S
 
F9Animal
Posts: 4243
Joined: Thu Dec 16, 2004 7:13 am

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:48 am

I am not an airline pilot. I have some flying time under my belt, and I have worked in the airline industry for years. I am in no way an expert. However, I do enjoy speculation and asking questions. The wealth of knowledge from this site is fascinating. I see absolutely no reason why we can't all get along. We have some members here that kick ass behind the controls of an airliner, and take the time to educate people like me that find their jobs fascinating. Sometimes I question myself on why a plane crash peaks my interest so much, I also share my sincere condolences to those lost. I guess my point is, there is no reason why anyone should be arguing, or bashing anyone who contributes here. If you don't agree, then let it go! I am saddened that people get so irritated and snotty! It's like a question or speculation wasted their bandwith or time! Really? I just want to thank the pros for being patient, and contributing their expertise. With that said.....

I found the previous thread had a member mention the lack of manual flying. My uncle in law flew for NW, starting back in the 707 days. He mentioned to me so many times how concerned he was with automation in the cockpit. He said he feared pilots would get too comfortable with pushing buttons, and losing the skill to hand fly. In the last thread, someone brought up having to use 2 hands to pull back, and the throttle automatically going to idle during a go around. I am shocked this could happen with today's technology! Has anything been done to prevent this from happening? It almost appears this could be a potential situation that happened here. Was the last 737 crash in Russia contributed to the throttle idling? I could have missed it in the last thread.

[Edited 2016-03-20 00:13:24]
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1534
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:36 pm

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 7:16 am

DocLightning, I believe that's just the lights. Different angle:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-eP_7_yJqk
 
User avatar
Navigator
Posts: 869
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2001 2:31 am

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 7:19 am

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 7):
I found the previous thread had a member mention the lack of manual flying. My uncle in law flew for NW, starting back in the 707 days. He mentioned to me so many times how concerned he was with automation in the cockpit. He said he feared pilots would get too comfortable with pushing buttons, and losing the skill to hand fly. In the last thread, someone brought up having to use 2 hands to pull back, and the throttle automatically going to idle during a go around. I am shocked this could happen with today's technology! Has anything been done to prevent this from happening?

What you are talking about here is now being debated in professional aviation safety forums all over the world. A number of accidents have happened in recent years relating to a deteriorating skill in handflying and handling abnormal situations. Both EASA and FAA are genuinely concerned. This accident we are talking about now could very well have ingeredients of this. Seems it happened during Go Around. A number of accidents have happened in recent years when pilots have los control in fully functioning planes during Go Around. One that comes to mind is a Gulf Air A320 accident in Bahrain i believe.
747-400/747-200/L1011/DC-10/DC-9/DC-8/MD-80/MD90/A340/A330/A300/A310/A321/A320/A319/767/757/737/727/HS-121/CV990/CV440/S
 
mandala499
Posts: 6589
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2001 8:47 pm

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 7:30 am

For the previous part (since my reply was made after the cutoff):

Quoting wjcandee (Reply 117):
Please, please, please CNN, stop using Scary Mary as your "expert". You would learn more from A.net. Even with the armchair speculation, it's a much more fertile source, particularly from our actual industry experts.

You can watch me on Russian Times TV if that makes you feel any better !    Or Al Jazeera (though I couldn't make it for this accident as I was having several weekend business meetings). "TV experts" (probably including me), are "opportunistic whores" when it comes to accidents. The difference is that some try to keep it objective or convey opinions as opinions, while some use the opportunity to push a personal agenda or scaremonvering. (I hope I don't fall on the latter 2).

Quoting RRTrent (Reply 130):
Given the choice, I'll trust AVH over anyone else 100% of the time all the time.

However; data from FR24 was posted in this thread earlier which does appear to tie in more with the video at this point.

I'd use FR24 data over AVH anytime. AVH is heavily dependent on reported articles (good and bad), and (rightly or wrongly), stubbornly reference based (I recall an argument about ILS at BPN, our AIP erroneously wrote ILS is 07 on the list, while the charts, and all publications say it's 25, and AVH refused to budge, to their detriment exposing their lack of knowledge and insight, but that is their business choice, and they're not out of business, so they still have value for some).

Quoting pilotaydin (Reply 234):
High pitch angles on the 737 aircraft are unfortunately very common during go arounds. The reason why you think I am exagerating this is because they mostly don't end up like this flight... and you don't hear about it because it's not on mainstream media.

In a way, if the mainstream alarmists hear about it, it'll just be a mess!

Quoting pilotaydin (Reply 236):
the biggest problem we have no are low flight time kids that have flown cessnas with glass cockpits, and are used to automation.

Like those who try to shoot a visual approach using the ND and screwing up on downwind and base?   

Quoting Pihero (Reply 256):
I'm glad pilotaydin is back on this forum ; he's been sadly missed.

Agree!

Quoting Pihero (Reply 256):
The inner ear ( our God given gyroscope ) will sense the horizontal acceleration as an added pitch-up, which doesn't stop there as tha aircr'aft is still accelerating. POilot reaction would be to push the control column, but as the aircr('aft is now going down and still accelerating the pilot's sensation will still be aboutr anj aircraft pointing its nose up.
Moreover ( this is less certain ) trhe darlk lefrt side is taken by the pilot as an *UP* side, which is fact he(s trying to avoid.
- Now we are well and truly inside the death dive caused by what pilots now call *somatogravic illusions*, i.e illusions caused by high accelerations.
- I do not a single second believe in a stall of any sort as the destruction of the airplane is so complete.

This keeps coming up again and again, and I am beginning to feel that the risks arising from this are underappreciated by the industry.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 256):
the Kenya Airways 737 in Beirut, among a lot of others.

You mean the Ethiopian 737 in Beirut, and Kenya 737 in Cameroon?

Quoting Pihero (Reply 256):
So my hunch is for a crew spatial disorientation in gusty conditions after a long duty day.

Agree! At the moment it looks unlikely that it's something else.
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
User avatar
jeta380
Posts: 16
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2005 8:55 am

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 7:48 am

I said, "due to being burn't by people who are experts (or so called) in this field."

Please read what I typed before getting defensive. Expert and so called experts (Two different types of people.) The key word in my sentence was 'or'.

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 3):
Actual airline pilots are not "so-called" experts - they are experts.
Quoting jumbojim747 (Reply 4):
Well said.
At the end of the day any crash is a tragety and we are dealing with it by trying to add our 2 bob to the discussion.
If its wrong to do so then im sorry .
Im not a pilot but i love aviation so much im compelled to have my say.

Thank you for your support.

I appreciate certain people will be not happy with my post and I do not apologise for it. It merely points out that even people who enjoy aviation would like to have imput, without being spoken to by people who have more experience in the subject outline than others as a goose.

If your getting your back up about the post......then I suggest you may have been an offender in the past. I am merely a voice for the non-experts on the forum who would like to participate in the forums without being bullied out.

On a positive note. I really do appreciate the input everyone has on the site. You guys are a wealth of knowledge and its the first place I come to, to get an analysis and opinion on any Aviation incident in the world.

[Edited 2016-03-20 00:51:30]
 
User avatar
Navigator
Posts: 869
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2001 2:31 am

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 7:49 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 10):
Quoting Pihero (Reply 256):
The inner ear ( our God given gyroscope ) will sense the horizontal acceleration as an added pitch-up, which doesn't stop there as tha aircr'aft is still accelerating. POilot reaction would be to push the control column, but as the aircr('aft is now going down and still accelerating the pilot's sensation will still be aboutr anj aircraft pointing its nose up.
Moreover ( this is less certain ) trhe darlk lefrt side is taken by the pilot as an *UP* side, which is fact he(s trying to avoid.
- Now we are well and truly inside the death dive caused by what pilots now call *somatogravic illusions*, i.e illusions caused by high accelerations.
- I do not a single second believe in a stall of any sort as the destruction of the airplane is so complete.

This keeps coming up again and again, and I am beginning to feel that the risks arising from this are underappreciated by the industry.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 256):
the Kenya Airways 737 in Beirut, among a lot of others.

You mean the Ethiopian 737 in Beirut, and Kenya 737 in Cameroon?

Quoting Pihero (Reply 256):
So my hunch is for a crew spatial disorientation in gusty conditions after a long duty day.

Agree! At the moment it looks unlikely that it's something else.

I also agree here. Spatial disorientation and maybe they simply flew into the ground during a Go Around.

The extremely long wait for an opportunity to land is something that needs debating. Most airlines have policies that prevent such long holdings. They simply recommend going to alternate much earlier. There are a number of reasons why its not safe to wait so long for an opportunity to land.
747-400/747-200/L1011/DC-10/DC-9/DC-8/MD-80/MD90/A340/A330/A300/A310/A321/A320/A319/767/757/737/727/HS-121/CV990/CV440/S
 
User avatar
DocLightning
Posts: 21549
Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:51 am

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 7:56 am

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 8):
DocLightning, I believe that's just the lights. Different angle:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-eP_7_yJqk

Yes, but from that angle you can't see much of anything.

Let me be clear: I am not asserting that it was or wasn't on fire. I'm just appreciating that I can understand why some people are wondering that. In fact, the other facts of the case seem to suggest that it was not.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
nitepilot79
Posts: 1075
Joined: Tue May 20, 2008 9:10 pm

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 7:59 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 5):
So a few people have commented that in at least one of the videos it looks as if the aircraft might have been on fire before impact. I think this was it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhet5XEw26Q

Now, to me, I have to agree, it looks as if maybe a wing is on fire. But then again, it is raining very hard, so I suppose it's possible that the lights are blurred out along the wing from rain on the camera lens.


My cobbled theory from the first thread:

The "BR" (mist, for those who may not know) within the METAR would seem to corroborate any light amplification...

Quoting sierrakilo44 (Reply 17):
METAR: URRR 190130Z 24012G18MPS 4400 1700SW SHRA BKN013 BKN032CB OVC100 06/04 Q0997 R22/290046 TEMPO 25017G25MPS 1000 SHRA BR SCT003 BKN020CB RMK QFE740/0987
 
chrisp390
Posts: 689
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 6:37 pm

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:01 am

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 3):

Well many many many news institutions from CNN, Avherald and others who "claim" to be the experts get some of their info from this website and the actual expert pilots who share their thoughts whenever there are accidents.
 
User avatar
DocLightning
Posts: 21549
Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:51 am

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:09 am

Quoting nitepilot79 (Reply 15):
The "BR" (mist, for those who may not know) within the METAR would seem to corroborate any light amplification...

Quoting sierrakilo44 (Reply 17):
METAR: URRR 190130Z 24012G18MPS 4400 1700SW SHRA BKN013 BKN032CB OVC100 06/04 Q0997 R22/290046 TEMPO 25017G25MPS 1000 SHRA BR SCT003 BKN020CB RMK QFE740/0987

That all fits.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
dubaiamman243
Posts: 1153
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2015 8:00 pm

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:18 am

Flightradar24:

#FZ981 was climbing after a go-around when it suddenly started to fall with vertical speed of up to 21000 feet/min
The next airline CEO :crossfingers:
 
Hywel
Posts: 705
Joined: Sun Apr 13, 2008 12:51 pm

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:30 am

It's been said that a diversion wouldn't have been easy, some regulatory requirement saying they can only receive fuel for a flight back to Dubai and not onto Rostov if the weather improved. Not sure if this is true or not, as I don't have experience flying into Russia.

However, if true and the captain was limited with options because of this, with management not liking the associated costs from a diversion, then the route should not have been set up in the first place. Every airline should have a contingency plan for diversions, and safety comes first - make a fatigued crew hold for 2 hours in gusty conditions, or divert them and get the plane on the ground safely. flydubai even fly to Krasnodar, so they'd have a contract with ground agents there to deal with the diversion.
 
NDiesel
Posts: 146
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2011 1:58 pm

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:34 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 5):
So a few people have commented that in at least one of the videos it looks as if the aircraft might have been on fire before impact. I think this was it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhet5XEw26Q

Now, to me, I have to agree, it looks as if maybe a wing is on fire. But then again, it is raining very hard, so I suppose it's possible that the lights are blurred out along the wing from rain on the camera lens.

If you look at it frame by frame, the one showing the moment of impact (or the frame right before it) shows no fire / light at all. Would suggest this was the landing lights losing power in that split second.
Delta MD-11 JFK-CDG - Upon sunrise I fell in love with aviation
 
wjcandee
Posts: 7928
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:51 am

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 7):
I found the previous thread had a member mention the lack of manual flying. My uncle in law flew for NW, starting back in the 707 days. He mentioned to me so many times how concerned he was with automation in the cockpit. He said he feared pilots would get too comfortable with pushing buttons, and losing the skill to hand fly.

Well, in 1997, Cecil Ewell, American Airlines' chief pilot, was so concerned about this subject that he asked Captain Warren Vanderburgh to do a segment at the flight academy on automation dependency and how to maintain stick-and-rudder skills. It's a legendary program, called "Children of the Magenta". Sadly, some companies today are actually teaching that you MUST use the computer as much as humanly possible. The fabulous Captain Dave was so opposed to this that, in his blog, he routinely and snarkily referred to the stick and rudder as the "Emergency Flight Controls".

In any event, for those who haven't seen this program from 1997, here it is on YouTube.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pN41LvuSz10

Pretty prescient about accidents like Asiana.

[Edited 2016-03-20 02:09:15]
 
User avatar
DocLightning
Posts: 21549
Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:51 am

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:02 am

Quoting dubaiamman243 (Reply 18):

#FZ981 was climbing after a go-around when it suddenly started to fall with vertical speed of up to 21000 feet/min

Could you get that if you pointed the nose down with the engines at TOGA power?
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
starrymarkb
Posts: 285
Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2011 9:19 pm

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:15 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 22):
Could you get that if you pointed the nose down with the engines at TOGA power?

It's about 206kts/238mph/381km/h so easily done.
 
User avatar
DocLightning
Posts: 21549
Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:51 am

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:28 am

Quoting starrymarkb (Reply 23):

It's about 206kts/238mph/381km/h so easily done.

Right, then. Pilotaydin in his usual way has solved the crash.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
mandala499
Posts: 6589
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2001 8:47 pm

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:47 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 22):
Could you get that if you pointed the nose down with the engines at TOGA power?

The aircraft was very light. I've just received some ADS-B data logs... then adjusted the time datum of the 1st approach to the 2nd approach to put them on an equivalent comparative time frame to see the differences between the 2 approaches... It was quickly apparent that The 1st go around showed the aircraft climbing and accelerating. However the energy was still pretty well managed by the crew. The 2nd go-around, was a different story, despite a steeper climb than the 1st go-around, the aircraft just kept accelerating.

I'd like to raise Pihero a question here, during the 2nd go-around, accompany the steep climb and (the assumed) pitch change rate, the aircraft also made track heading changes for whatever reason... (went left then right)... opposite to the 1st one. I wonder if this would have added to the somatogravic issue. The increase in groundspeed of the aircraft was quite something, with still a steep climb... (Not a pretty sight)

Plus I think it's also obvious from the ground tracks that the 1st approach the crew was flying using LNAV or a constant HDGSEL prior to the turn to intercept... However, the 2nd one was "messy"...
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
User avatar
Starlionblue
Posts: 19387
Joined: Fri Feb 27, 2004 9:54 pm

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:23 am

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 7):
My uncle in law flew for NW, starting back in the 707 days. He mentioned to me so many times how concerned he was with automation in the cockpit. He said he feared pilots would get too comfortable with pushing buttons, and losing the skill to hand fly

Since the beginning of aviation, earlier generations of pilots have been bemoaning the lack of skills of newer generations of pilots due to automation (or because they look 12, or have never flown in a military aircraft, or in the outback, or with their hair on fire, or whatever...). I have no doubt this happened back in the 1920s already.

Don't get me wrong. It is a fair point, but it is not enough because just saying "more hand flying" doesn't really address the issue. Like it or not, airliners will continue to become more automated. IMHO the key is not just to hand fly an airliner designed to be flown automatically as much as you can, though there is value in that. The key is to really really understand the automation and the traps inherent in it.

Which brings us to.

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 7):
In the last thread, someone brought up having to use 2 hands to pull back, and the throttle automatically going to idle during a go around. I am shocked this could happen with today's technology!

Without going into the specifics of that case, any automated airliner has traps like this. It's the nature of designing complex autoflight logic which 99.999% of the time is a huge boon to the pilot. You can't design away all the traps.

Again, automation awareness is key. Mode awareness is a critical skill. Know what the aircraft is doing and what it means.

We're only human, though. If you as PM think the PF is not "aware", speak up! It is very easy to miss things, which is why we're at least two people at the pointy end. The other day I caught something from the jump seat that both PF and PM had missed, and called their attention to it. I do that maybe one flight out of four. Missing this particular something wouldn't have killed us, but it was pretty significant. It does goes to show how the mind can easily miss crucial bits of information. Add in fatigue, etc...

[Edited 2016-03-20 03:26:21]
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
pilotaydin
Posts: 2100
Joined: Tue Sep 07, 2004 12:30 am

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:25 am

Quoting Navigator (Reply 6):

well said!
The only time there is too much fuel onboard, is when you're on fire!
 
User avatar
Navigator
Posts: 869
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2001 2:31 am

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:30 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 22):
Quoting dubaiamman243 (Reply 18):

#FZ981 was climbing after a go-around when it suddenly started to fall with vertical speed of up to 21000 feet/min

Could you get that if you pointed the nose down with the engines at TOGA power?

I have not really thought this through yet so forgive me if it may be stupid... but anyway... : What if Spatial Disorientation caused an upset during Go Around so they had turned the plane almost upside down and started pulling to arrest a presumed descent?? May sound stupid enough, but what if??
747-400/747-200/L1011/DC-10/DC-9/DC-8/MD-80/MD90/A340/A330/A300/A310/A321/A320/A319/767/757/737/727/HS-121/CV990/CV440/S
 
pilotaydin
Posts: 2100
Joined: Tue Sep 07, 2004 12:30 am

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:32 am

Good morning folks...I have no new information for today about the crash but I did wonder through old accidents and incidents. We are talking about an accident that took place in less than a minute...from 1500 feet clicking toga in all those circumstances climbing to 4000 feet and then coming crashing down, somewhere around maximum 30 seconds...imagine yourself in a car or in a bus and driving it and all of a sudden you encounter ice on your road during a sharp curve...do you have time to react? do you have a clear mind that isn't tired...?? highly doubt most will get out of the situation...

the problem is that when something happens it happens in such a way that most pilots havent seen it before or they are low on awareness...this is the real issue now...automation and pilots. This will be the cause of accidents from now on..not crashing into a moutain because we have radar egpws, not getting lost because we have gps, but completely due to being the bumper zone between fully automated flight and sitting back and monitoring...humans are horrible monitors...did some research about this and produced a small paper if anyone wants to read it...it basically was set in a simulator where pilots were training for their opc and lpc but we gave them a small automation failure surpirze during a landing in low visibility (rollout failure) rollout failure has no indication in the aircraft the airplane can still veer off the runway with the mode showing on the FMA...

from years of flying and investigating i can tell you one CERTAIN thing...the cause of 99% of all accidents are soo soo soooo simple...dont have to look for missiles, bombs, suicide or major tecnical failure...
The only time there is too much fuel onboard, is when you're on fire!
 
pilotaydin
Posts: 2100
Joined: Tue Sep 07, 2004 12:30 am

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:34 am

Quoting Navigator (Reply 28):
I have not really thought this through yet so forgive me if it may be stupid... but anyway... : What if Spatial Disorientation caused an upset during Go Around so they had turned the plane almost upside down and started pulling to arrest a presumed descent?? May sound stupid enough, but what if??

NOT STUPID AT ALL! Remember AF447 and Air ASIA, in both accidents the stall warning was going crazy and yet both pilots kept pulling BACK on the sidestick making the situation impossible to recover...so anything is possible if you are seeing it for the first time!
The only time there is too much fuel onboard, is when you're on fire!
 
mandala499
Posts: 6589
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2001 8:47 pm

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:53 am

Quoting pilotaydin (Reply 29):
from years of flying and investigating i can tell you one CERTAIN thing...the cause of 99% of all accidents are soo soo soooo simple...dont have to look for missiles, bombs, suicide or major tecnical failure...

I always tell people, as safety improves, the remaining accidents will be simple (and perhaps stupid) ones, or the complex mysterious/mystifying ones... Anything in between has been 'solved' by improvements in safety!
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
Pihero
Posts: 4318
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 5:11 am

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 11:04 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 10):
I am beginning to feel that the risks arising from this are underappreciated by the industry.

Wrote a paper some ten years ago on this very subject.
Basically, it was an advice to all pilots to be aware of spatial disorientation possibility, especially with these twin-engined airplanes that, as I said earlier,could well have a better thrust-to-weight ration than first line fighters of not long ago.Those are sporty things and could well fly right oiff your control if you're not careful
That's also the reason I advised aircrews to practice the Airbus *soft GA* procedure (at captains "Go-around" order, thrust lever to the TOGA detent, then call out FMA to confirm the GA state, then quickly retard to CLB and announce again relevant FMA ).
Of course, the full GA is available if needed.

Now, the two hours' holding time...
It's always difficult to put oneself into someone else's shoes and I certainly do not have all the economic / operational picture of that particular UAE-Russia link.
Let's just say that an early diversion, after the first overshoot, would have allowed the crew to safely and restfully wait on the ground for weather conditions to improve at Rostov. As we know, fuel wasn't a concern.

Quoting dubaiamman243 (Reply 18):

Flightradar24:
#FZ981 was climbing after a go-around when it suddenly started to fall with vertical speed of up to 21000 feet/min
Quoting starrymarkb (Reply 23):
It's about 206kts/238mph/381km/h so easily done.

The size of the debris and the debris field point toward a much higher speed ; as a matter of fact, they look a lot more like the wreckage of the GermanWings 320 which hit the mountain slope at an almost right angle and a speed of 380 knots.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 10):
Quoting Pihero (Reply 256):
the Kenya Airways 737 in Beirut, among a lot of others.

You mean the Ethiopian 737 in Beirut, and Kenya 737 in Cameroon?

Sorry, buddy ; Yes that's what I meant but typed too quickly.
Contrail designer
 
User avatar
Navigator
Posts: 869
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2001 2:31 am

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 11:15 am

Quoting pilotaydin (Reply 30):
Quoting Navigator (Reply 28):
I have not really thought this through yet so forgive me if it may be stupid... but anyway... : What if Spatial Disorientation caused an upset during Go Around so they had turned the plane almost upside down and started pulling to arrest a presumed descent?? May sound stupid enough, but what if??

NOT STUPID AT ALL! Remember AF447 and Air ASIA, in both accidents the stall warning was going crazy and yet both pilots kept pulling BACK on the sidestick making the situation impossible to recover...so anything is possible if you are seeing it for the first time!
http://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/R...ry_from_Unusual_Aircraft_Attitudes
747-400/747-200/L1011/DC-10/DC-9/DC-8/MD-80/MD90/A340/A330/A300/A310/A321/A320/A319/767/757/737/727/HS-121/CV990/CV440/S
 
coolian2
Posts: 2483
Joined: Sun Oct 22, 2006 3:34 pm

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 11:25 am

I'm not going to defend myself at all on this theory, as it's likely wrong and I'm no expert.

Comes in, whacks a wing on the ground. Decides to go around. Enters zoom climb (for lack of a better term), loses some structural integrity, comes back to earth in a big way.

I'm NOT saying anything other than an assumption.
Q300/ATR72-600/737-200/-300/-400/-700/-800/A320/767-200/-300/757-200/777-300ER/
747-200/-300/-400/ER/A340-300/A380-800/MD-83/-88/CRJ-700/-900
 
washingtonflyer
Posts: 1490
Joined: Sun Sep 08, 2013 9:45 pm

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 11:30 am

i'm surprised by many of the theories here on a precrash fire.

First: look at the CCTV footage. It was quite dark out with mist in the area. If there was a fire on a wing or coming from a wing, the CCTV footage would have shown it. The CCTV shows a very clear tail landing light and then a very large fireball. One light source from the aicraft.

Had there been a fire we would have either seen the fire directly emanating from the wing or the glow from the fire if the plane was inverted and the wing on fire was on the far side of the aircraft. Remember, it was quite dark and misty where light would have reflected off clouds.

Instead the CCTV footage shows but one light source coming in at a very steep angle at a high rate of speed.

Second: there is not a single witness report thus far of any aircraft on fire. If a plane was flying for some distance with a fire, we would have had multiple published reports of one. We don't.

Third: if there was some type of fire, its very likely the crew would have been aware of it - either by crew initial observation, instrument warning, or observation via a third party (passenger, ground, etc.). They would undoubtedly radioed a "mayday" and required FSS. Again, this didn't happen.

Of all the many wing strike crashes I've seen you have wings ripped off, inverted crashed aircraft, but almost always largely intact fuselages. Asiana 214, Ethiopian 961, China Airlines 1642. And, again, if there had been a wing strike, the flight crew would likely have declared a mayday or at least a pan-pan and requested FSS. This was not a stupid pilot.

This thing looks like it went through a can shredder first....

Fourth: FR24 shows NO evidence that the plane touched down leading to a wing strike. It looks like it got down to about 1000 feet before aborting....but that's it.

[Edited 2016-03-20 04:47:58]
 
pilotaydin
Posts: 2100
Joined: Tue Sep 07, 2004 12:30 am

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 11:33 am

Quoting coolian2 (Reply 34):

The aircraft held for 2 hours after the first go around...structural integrity is not an issue at those speeds and the wing strike is not so serious....

if you are baffled take a look at TK accident from a few months ago...the aircraft hit the ground at 4.9 G, went around, lost 2 hydraulics, struck the tail and wing, couldnt use flaps or gear and she landed perfectly...it was an A320...

aircraft are designed pretty damn sturdy....

I recommend we move away from maintenance issues and structural failures for the cause of this accident...
no pilot would have the voice of the copilot during the go around calm and cool if they had hit the ground or were running out of fuel...
The only time there is too much fuel onboard, is when you're on fire!
 
User avatar
Airbus747
Posts: 148
Joined: Thu Mar 13, 2014 12:18 am

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 11:42 am

Hi lades & gentlemen,

Could someone please explain to the non-experts how the "thrust-to-weight ratio" problem works?

Does that mean that the plane is so light that a small increase in engine power can make it go so fast that it's harder to maneuver its direction?
 
pilotaydin
Posts: 2100
Joined: Tue Sep 07, 2004 12:30 am

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 11:49 am

Quoting Airbus747 (Reply 37):

Imagine a small boat like a zodiac and imagine it had a nice powerful engine at the back.

Now load that zodiac with everything in site, including yourself your gear and your fellow friends...
now add FULL POWER....the nose of the boat won't rise up too much and it will move along sturdy

now take the same boat with no weight and add that full power...the nose of the boat will boost up and the boat will be subject to deflections by the waves and by the natural direction of thrust...
The only time there is too much fuel onboard, is when you're on fire!
 
ltbewr
Posts: 14314
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 11:56 am

I wonder if CRM - Cockpit Resource Management - is a issue in this crash. The decision to land instead of diverting to another airport, a co-pilot unable or reluctant to try to override the PF's decisions, despite borderline risky weather conditions will be considered in the investigation of this crash, likely from the VCR.
 
coolian2
Posts: 2483
Joined: Sun Oct 22, 2006 3:34 pm

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 11:59 am

Quoting pilotaydin (Reply 36):
The aircraft held for 2 hours after the first go around...structural integrity is not an issue at those speeds and the wing strike is not so serious....

Ah right. Appreciated point.

I read the wing strike happened on the approach that went bad. If they buggered the wing, and went for a go around (huge assumptions etc and I sure won't argue with you!) that can make sense.

I'm heading to your thinking easily.
Q300/ATR72-600/737-200/-300/-400/-700/-800/A320/767-200/-300/757-200/777-300ER/
747-200/-300/-400/ER/A340-300/A380-800/MD-83/-88/CRJ-700/-900
 
User avatar
Navigator
Posts: 869
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2001 2:31 am

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 12:01 pm

Here is another angle of the crash. Seems it is stalled:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEThAV3Y2_I&feature=youtu.be
747-400/747-200/L1011/DC-10/DC-9/DC-8/MD-80/MD90/A340/A330/A300/A310/A321/A320/A319/767/757/737/727/HS-121/CV990/CV440/S
 
Shmendr
Posts: 23
Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2007 4:43 pm

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 12:05 pm

Quoting pilotaydin (Reply 29):
humans are horrible monitors...did some research about this and produced a small paper if anyone wants to read it.

Can you provide a link to your paper, Pilotaydin? This accident reminds me of Colgan Air 3407 in Buffalo. Pilot fatigue landing in poor weather. Pilot raised the nose to the stall warning.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colgan_Air_Flight_3407

Thank you.
 
Flightsimboy
Posts: 1772
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2005 12:49 pm

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 12:12 pm

While the threads indicate pilot error, or not having enough time to pull out of the situation (dependency on automation vs pilot flying skills), there have been total hull loses in incidents on take off and landing with the Boeing 737-800s. Were all those pilot errors as well?

Living in Toronto you see them all the time when spotting, West jet, Air Transat, Sunwing, Canjet and soon AC mainline. The list goes on not forgetting visitors from across the border American, United etc, so these are clearly workhorses of airline fleets.
LAX772LR - "Answer to goofy question:" in response to my question about the B737-MAX8 being grounded. 48 hours later all B737-MAX8 grounded worldwide. Go figure!!
 
User avatar
Airbus747
Posts: 148
Joined: Thu Mar 13, 2014 12:18 am

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 12:14 pm

Quoting pilotaydin (Reply 38):
now take the same boat with no weight and add that full power...the nose of the boat will boost up and the boat will be subject to deflections by the waves and by the natural direction of thrust...

Thanks pilotaydin, makes perfect sense!
 
AIRWALK
Posts: 238
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2014 9:33 am

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 12:15 pm

Lets not be so quick to jump to questioning the quality of airmanship and degradation of flying abilities. It is a real possibility that despite the best actions of the crew, they were not able to recover through no fault of their own. It is quite possible there would be no effective action they could have taken to save the aircraft. The incident I linked in the previous thread made these important points:

During the go-around the aircraft pitched up excessively; flight crew attempts to reduce the aircraft’s pitch were largely ineffective.

Despite the application of full thrust, the aircraft stalled

and

The trimmed position of the stabiliser, combined with the selection of maximum thrust, overwhelmed the available elevator authority.

http://www.gov.uk/aaib-reports/aar-3...g-737-3q8-g-thof-23-september-2007
I'm sure this thread will take off soon
 
mandala499
Posts: 6589
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2001 8:47 pm

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 12:19 pm

Quoting Navigator (Reply 41):

Here is another angle of the crash. Seems it is stalled:

From +4000fpm to -21000fpm in 15 seconds? A stall? NO WAY! Sorry...
We're talking about -8.467m/s²... that's just short of gravity (-9.8m/s²)...
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
packsonflight
Posts: 383
Joined: Tue Jan 12, 2010 2:55 pm

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 12:27 pm

Quoting washingtonflyer (Reply 35):
i'm surprised by many of the theories here on a precrash fire.

I believe what people see as pre crash fire is a really condensation from the deep stalled wing.
 
User avatar
Navigator
Posts: 869
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2001 2:31 am

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 1:03 pm

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 46):
Quoting Navigator (Reply 41):

Here is another angle of the crash. Seems it is stalled:

From +4000fpm to -21000fpm in 15 seconds? A stall? NO WAY! Sorry...
We're talking about -8.467m/s²... that's just short of gravity (-9.8m/s²)...

That brings us back to the first assumption that they may have turned uside down and pulled...
747-400/747-200/L1011/DC-10/DC-9/DC-8/MD-80/MD90/A340/A330/A300/A310/A321/A320/A319/767/757/737/727/HS-121/CV990/CV440/S
 
Archer
Posts: 93
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2005 7:07 am

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 1:05 pm

Haven't had time to completely read all posts but if it's true the previous airliner
did 2 or 3 approaches and diverted - obviously the weather was not good at all.
A clue?
 
mandala499
Posts: 6589
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2001 8:47 pm

RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Sun Mar 20, 2016 1:07 pm

Quoting Navigator (Reply 48):
That brings us back to the first assumption that they may have turned uside down and pulled...

I suggest you look up at what Pihero wrote about, "somatogravic illusion"... Airplanes fly with airspeed, but our biological sensors use ground speeds... as the airplane accelerated AND climbed, the senses could have been overwhelmed with a sense of excessive nose up pitch change... hence the reaction to push the yoke forward... as the nose comes down, you accelerate even faster, and push the yoke down even further... Result: disaster. It has happened, and it will happen again, unfortunately....  
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos