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SOBHI51
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 6:14 pm

Quoting Pellegrine (Reply 123):
I'm not criticizing the pilots,
Quoting Pellegrine (Reply 123):
It's ridiculous that so many lives depend on this old shit of pilots and their big swinging dicks (i.e. personalities) knowing everything. Let's solve this and have something better.

No you are really not criticizing the pilots, your are insulting them and they are not with us anymore to respond. There is a word for such action, will leave it up to you to decide what it is.

Quoting Pellegrine (Reply 123):
I've been in white out conditions driving my huge aftermarket-accessorized Yukon Denali. 600 hp and lb-ft of torque aren't going to save me, so I pulled over.

Would love to comment on this, but i will be suspended. Will give you a hint, it has to do with sizes.
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CabSauv
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 6:43 pm

Quoting SOBHI51 (Reply 150):
Will give you a hint, it has to do with sizes.

small hands    ?
 
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readytotaxi
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 6:49 pm

Quoting CabSauv (Reply 151):
small hands ?

That would make it look better.
you don't get a second chance to make a first impression!
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Pihero
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 6:53 pm

Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 149):
the issue is more about situational awareness

Yes. One of the issues airlines and OEMs have to address now is SA.

Can SA be trained for ?
Yes, but it is a lengthy process that , as a matter of fact, is intimately embedded in what we call *airmanship*
Problem is that airmanship is not really taught any more, at initial / advanced trainbing level. It is left to older captains on the line to pass their knowledge onto youngsters, but there is less and less time and because of the very quick air transport expansion, the level of experience is less and less sufficient.
So, IMHO, we'll be stuck with an expanding human factor cause of accidents, although...

SA is also an exceedingly urgent subject to address : it has to do with better cockpits, better information display and warnings, and not an ever-expanding automatisation of flight deck tasks.
It also has to do with the pilots'ability to really monitor the aircraft / automation behaviour : for instance, every real CatIII autoland is, for the pilots, a genuine act of faith, whereas with superwide head-up displays with enhanced vision, we could follow George to the touch-down, and even replace him completely ( Manual CatIII is a reality)

As for training, coming out of the airline pilot course of the French ENAC / SFA, I had logged 550 hours over three years of flight training, which included single engined to the CPL + IFR, Aeroibatics up to the reverse/inverted maneuvers , multi engined IFR and Jet transition... Nowadays, some airlines - the majority of - get on-line training 20-year-olds with150 hours of actual flying... They more than triple that experience during line quals .
There are airlines where one could find the necessary experience in the older pilots : those well established ones especially those long haul specialists like Cathay / JAL / SQ / QF /... and the traditionals in the West...

[Edited 2016-03-21 11:55:14]

[Edited 2016-03-21 12:36:37]
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dmsolovyev
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 7:21 pm

Another video from surveillance camera: a larger angle of view. Looks scary, I should say  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AlAjy7hg_Y
 
UALWN
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 7:37 pm

Quoting dmsolovyev (Reply 155):
Looks scary, I should say

It looks incredibly sad. Poor people.
AT7/111/146/Avro/CRJ/CR9/EMB/ERJ/E75/F50/100/L15/DC9/D10/M8X/717/727/737/747/757/767/777/787/AB6/310/32X/330/340/350/380
 
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 7:39 pm

Quoting dmsolovyev (Reply 155):
Another video from surveillance camera: a larger angle of view. Looks scary, I should say http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AlAjy7hg_Y

WOW, thats just crazy seeing that aircraft break out of the clouds and literally less than 3 seconds later it hits the ground. It's just so sad that so many of these crashes involve absolutely perfect flyable aircraft that for whatever reasons cant be controlled and end up like this 
 
SJCMSP
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 7:40 pm

Quoting dmsolovyev (Reply 155):

Wow, on this one you could see the cloud cover was pretty low as you could see the lights before the plane emerged. One also gets a sense of the weather from this. In the original video is also looks like the camera is shaking from the wind.
Just horrible looking. I just have to say this evokes a certain visceral reaction within me. I was just returned from a vacation with my family on a 737-800 last week. I just think of a family, not unlike my own, almost home, and then...

[Edited 2016-03-21 12:42:20]

[Edited 2016-03-21 12:47:01]
 
dubaiamman243
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 8:11 pm

"The most common reason for breaking the Boeing 737-800 airline FlyDubai flight FZ-981 in Rostov-on-Don is extremely serious mistake of the pilot. This is the opinion of an expert on aircraft accidents Yuri Antipov, quoted LifeNews. As proof, he shows a fall of avionott high angles. They are seen as the plane moves to the runway in configuration, which is obviously not for landing. The angle of cut relative to the ground is not less than 45 degrees. This shows that bad weather is the cause. It is rough or piloting error, or some very large manipulation during fuel consumption of the aircraft for which technical malfunction occurred. But an angle of 45 degrees to a practice, and “drill style” plane landing, but crashes in the country, explains the expert. "

http://www.airlineupdates.net/expert...corner-in-rostov-on-don-new-video/
The next airline CEO :crossfingers:
 
slvrblt
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 8:13 pm

Quoting lapa_saab340 (Reply 78):
Pilotaydin and Pihero both gave excellen

OK. Zeke, Pilotaydin, Pihero, respected airplane driver experts - I have questions, please.

I'm in the airline industry many years, not a pilot, an agent. I'm old school, I've worked with many a pilot over the years and argued with them, complemented them, disputed them, about lots of stuff. I've ridden in cockpit jumpseats in the good old days. Those guys didn't just manage a computer, they FLEW the airplane and for sure have my respect for their prowess after more than one hair-raising ride.
I've been here on a.net many a time with my criticisms -their union agendas, boundless egos and their other foibles. But, to a man, or woman, they ARE professionals. They do know how to handle their machines. They don't have death wishes. (that poor Germanwings dude excluded of course).

So what the heck is going on now? The recent spates of pilot-attributable disasters bothers me. There's AF447, the Asiana 777 in SFO, the Indonesian AsiaExpress(?) , maybe MH370, and now this crash. All the above mentioned accidents appear to have the same basic cause: pilots lost situational awareness, or made really bad decisions. Similarly, there's also a huge non-disaster, (but one that could have been an accident of epic proportions, 'twas narrowly averted) - the QR 777 in MIA that took off from the wrong intersection and almost didn't get airborne. I'd really like your opinions, Pihero, Pilotaydin, Zeke, et al. I know there's more of you.  

It was a fairly new 738, so pretty clear it wasn't the aircraft. Concentrating on the folks up front does seem the right thing to do, the discussions above seem to point that way as well. What's happened; have pilots nowadays become just ''flight system managers?'' Aren't they taught to fly the darn things too? (sounds sarcastic but not intended that way).

Pilotaydin, you mention this ''somatogravic illusion.'' Never heard of that, but then I'm not a pilot. From previous discussion I take it thats something like vertigo. Accepting that, this can't be something that just came up, right? Isn't this something all pilots over the years have known about and trained for? What about military pilots? They fly supersonic jets, take all those g's, go rocketing off aircraft carriers or rough airfields in all weathers and situations. And they don't go flying themselves into the ocean or other terrain. I'm really asking here, what the heck is going on with commercial pilots???
..everything works out in the end.
 
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 8:18 pm

Quoting dmsolovyev (Reply 155):

I just analyzed the video...the aircraft broke out of the clouds already nose down, judging from the cloud base the aircraft may have stalled out or entered unusual attitude around 4000 feet plus....right before the crash you can see the strobe light and the beacon working perfectly fine...

this makes me believe the plane is fine structurally as the wiring is one of the first things to go with parts that are knocked off...

i really just believe this aircraft pitched up too much and entered unusual attitude

imagine the ockcpit is lit up with strobe light beacon light and landing light all flshing into the deck and confusing the crew even more, along with the 4 am time which is the WORST time and the tired crew from flying 5-6 hours...

worst case scenario...

also the aircraft made one go around in the same weather the first time around they were fine...why not the second time? probably because their awareness reduced a lot after 2 hours....
The only time there is too much fuel onboard, is when you're on fire!
 
ual777
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 8:23 pm

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 148):
e automation (i.e. flight envelope protection) could have prevented the accident.

Disagree and we still aren't sure what happened yet.

Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 149):
This may be a bit off-topic, but I hear the lack of manual flying skills repeated as a problem.

May be. But I think it is actually slightly different. If you look at the various different accidents (AF 447 etc), it is often the case that the pilots are capable of flying, but the issue is more about situational awareness. They don't understand they are in a stall.

You may feel that the distinction is one without significant. But I think we have to be very careful about what the problems are, in order to understand how to correct the situation. If the situation is that people don't know how to fly manually, or are inexperienced in manual flying, then the obvious recipe is more hand flying.

But if the pilots tend to lose situation awareness when the computer quits or an otherwise complex situation presents itself, that's a whole different problem. You should train more situational awareness, dealing with surprises, monitoring techniques, the ability to quickly find the reliable sources of information. And that's a much more difficult training task. Mere more hand flying won't help this.

I totally agree and will respond more indepth below.

Quoting SOBHI51 (Reply 150):

Would love to comment on this, but i will be suspended. Will give you a hint, it has to do with sizes.

Trump/Rubio again? lol

Quoting Pihero (Reply 153):

Yes. One of the issues airlines and OEMs have to address now is SA.

Can SA be trained for ?
Yes, but it is a lengthy process that , as a matter of fact, is intimately embedded in what we call *airmanship*
Problem is that airmanship is not really taught any more, at initial / advanced trainbing level. It is left to older captains on the line to pass their knowledge onto youngsters, but there is less and less time and because of the very quick air transport expansion, the level of experience is less and less sufficient.
So, IMHO, we'll be stuck with an expanding human factor cause of accidents, although...

SA is also an exceedingly urgent subject to address : it has to do with better cockpits, better information display and warnings, and not an ever-expanding automatisation of flight deck tasks.
It also has to do with the pilots'ability to really monitor the aircraft / automation behaviour : for instance, every real CatIII autoland is, for the pilots, a genuine act of faith, whereas with superwide head-up displays with enhanced vision, we could follow George to the touch-down, and even replace him completely ( Manual CatIII is a reality)

As for training, coming out of the airline pilot course of the French ENAC / SFA, I had logged 550 hours over three years of flight training, which included single engined to the CPL + IFR, Aeroibatics up to the reverse/inverted maneuvers , multi engined IFR and Jet transition... Nowadays, some airlines - the majority of - get on-line training 20-year-olds with150 hours of actual flying... They more than triple that experience during line quals .
There are airlines where one could find the necessary experience in the older pilots : those well established ones especially those long haul specialists like Cathay / JAL / SQ / QF /... and the traditionals in the West...

This is one thing I really like about the 1,500 hour rule in the US and I've made this argument multiple times on anet.

The standard pipeline here is finishing all your ratings with 200-250 hours and then flight instructing to 1,000 to 1,500 hours before applying to the airlines.

I finished my ratings at the height of the "great recession" and had no choice but to instruct. At the time as a newly minted commercial pilot I thought it was stupid, but in hindsight, the 500 hours of dual given I had were the most valuable hours I've had to date. Why? It gave me experience in the following and more:

Unusual Attitudes
Undesired aircraft states
Communication
Good PIC habits
Basic Airmanship
Cockpit Crosscheck

Thinking about it, I've probably put an aircraft into an unusual attitude training a student at least 70 times. No regimented training program can replace being put in charge and cut loose to teach and perfect what you have learned. Instructing allows a young pilot to master his/her craft and start filling a small bag of knowledge.

For example, I was teaching instrument approaches with two of my Chinese students and our attitude indicator failed in hard IMC so we had to shoot the ILS partial panel (weather was 400 OVC). Afterwords, you have an "oh, so that's what that is really like" moment," and learn what to look for the next time you are trolling around in the clouds.

Through this experience and more you gain a sixth sense so to speak and a mentality of cross checking because if the student hasn't tried to kill you yet, they're about to. You also build confidence in your abilities and know when something just doesn't look right. As a new First Officer, you are not PIC but must have the cajones to speak up if you feel he or she is wrong. Instructing helps you learn when to speak up and/or intervene before you bend metal.

Now, these pilots aren't here to defend themselves so I'll have to reserve judgement until we see the data and tapes, but it doesn't look good.

Automation is a great tool to reduce the workload in an aircraft, but I am a staunch supporter of allowing young pilots to master their craft on steam gauges (round dials) before jumping into glass cockpit airliners and going brain dead at cruise.
It is always darkest before the sun comes up.
 
Pihero
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 8:52 pm

From Aviation ToDay,

"An investigation team from the Russian Interstate Aviation Committee (ICA) and specialists from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and France’s Bureau of Enquiry and Analysis for civil aviation safety (BEA) have recovered the FDR and CVR from the site of the aircraft collision."
Full article here on Focus on CVR / FDR in Rostov Accident
Contrail designer
 
barney captain
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:14 pm

That new video is chilling. It looks to me like a sudden nose-over occurred just prior to them breaking out. It's almost as if it were some sort of flight control issue. It looks like we see the beginning of the nose down attitude commence right at the base of the clouds, which certainly appear to be a considerable amount above CAT 1 mins.
Southeast Of Disorder
 
trnswrld
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:25 pm

Quoting barney captain (Reply 165):

That new video is chilling. It looks to me like a sudden nose-over occurred just prior to them breaking out. It's almost as if it were some sort of flight control issue. It looks like we see the beginning of the nose down attitude commence right at the base of the clouds, which certainly appear to be a considerable amount above CAT 1 mins.


Southeast Of Disorder

I don't think that's the case. I mean to me anyway I don't see how you could tell that it started the nose down attitude just before the cloud base. I see nothing more than the cloud bases starting to light up as the landing lights got closer to them and it broke out. Not only that, but I thought data reports say the aircraft was way up at 4,000ft before the rapid descent started. Those cloud based appear to only be a few hundred feet up. I think that plane was nosed over for quite a while prior to when it first broke out. Atleast that's what I'm gathering from what I have read here.

[Edited 2016-03-21 14:26:35]
 
barney captain
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:34 pm

You may be right. I could be an optical illusion, but it appears that the "top of the arc" occurs just as the glow becomes visible, with an increase nose down pitch just after.

Again, it's hard to tell.
Southeast Of Disorder
 
CabSauv
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:36 pm

ATC transcript + FR24 flight path

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CRUVDZjBAAs

[Edited 2016-03-21 15:17:16]
 
barney captain
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:42 pm

Quoting CabSauv (Reply 168):
ATC transcript + FR24 flight path

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CRUVDZjBAAs

Thanks, yea I saw that. (remove that pesky "S" after http to make the link clickable).

That graphic at the end - that sudden pitch down. That's what I think we're seeing. If that graphic is to scale they had just began the GA when whatever happened - happened.
Southeast Of Disorder
 
eielef
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:01 pm

That video is amazing. I would rule out the idea of crew fatigue, they seem so fast in all communications, that albeit they should have been bored as hell after so long waiting, they were still pretty awake to answer all communications, understanding very un-common practices, as when the ROV-Approach tells them to maintain 600 meters instead of 2000ft. All of their equipment (including auto-pilot, gauges, digital screens) is displayed in feet, and 99% of the planes that land at ROV have the same equipment. Why did people on ground spoke to them in meters? This wasn't at all a contributing factor (as well as the rather poor English of the Russian ATCs), but we can see a crew fully awake and prepared to do their best,
Do we have any Flight Simulator specialist who could try to reproduce the last few minutes?
 
eielef
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:09 pm

This is an article published in RIA Novosti in March 2012, in Russian only
http://ria.ru/society/20120329/609137486.html
It comments the ILS out of service, which made a S7 pilot to have to return to DME after few approaches, on similar weather conditions, on March 28th 2012.
I think in four years the ILS was fixed, or even replaced, but I'm not really sure. The company is investing heavy money on building the new airport (Yuzhniy) and this seems pretty abandoned. Off course, ILS is not just fancy, is security.


These are the newest airport charts I could find online, from January 2016. It seems there is ILS CAT II (on RWY 04).
https://files.ivaoru.org/charts/urrr.pdf

Maybe you can find more things of that data.
Cheers
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Moose135
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:16 pm

Quoting slvrblt (Reply 161):
So what the heck is going on now? The recent spates of pilot-attributable disasters bothers me.

I think part of it is the level of safety that the industry has achieved. I don't think pilots are making more mistakes than in the past, but back in the day, when you had 8 or 10 crashes (or more) in a year, some attributed to pilot error, others due to equipment failure or misunderstood phenomena (windsheer/microbursts) the pilot-related crashes don't necessarily jump off the page. When there are a handful of crashes, and most of the "other" causes have been reduced or eliminated, the pilot-related crashes stand out.

Quoting slvrblt (Reply 161):
What about military pilots? They fly supersonic jets, take all those g's, go rocketing off aircraft carriers or rough airfields in all weathers and situations. And they don't go flying themselves into the ocean or other terrain.

They do - G-LOC (G-induced Loss of Consciousness) is a serious concern, especially in newer, higher performance aircraft.
KC-135 - Passing gas and taking names!
 
trnswrld
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:35 pm

Quoting eielef (Reply 170):

That video is amazing. I would rule out the idea of crew fatigue, they seem so fast in all communications, that albeit they should have been bored as hell after so long waiting, they were still pretty awake to answer all communications,

Absolutely can NOT rule out fatigue. Just because they sounded fine on the radio doesn't mean a whole lot at all. I mean I see what you're saying, but you know darn well this was not a 100% fresh crew. There is simply no way after that entire flight and all the things they had to think about all in poor weather conditions and at night.
 
BoeingBear
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:43 pm

Quoting eielef (Reply 171):
These are the newest airport charts I could find online, from January 2016. It seems there is ILS CAT II (on RWY 04).

ILS notwithstanding, RWY 04 was not an option as the wind was out of 240.

If you look at the ADS-B/Mode-S data, the airplane went from a positive rate of climb to a 10000 FPM descent in ~4.5 seconds. That plus the CB clouds indicated in the METAR makes me suspect windshear. Yes, spatial disorientation is certainly possible -- but I'd expect less of a sudden shift in vertical speed if they had simply stalled.
 
barney captain
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:49 pm

Quoting BoeingBear (Reply 174):
That plus the CB clouds indicated in the METAR makes me suspect windshear.

That new video doesn't support W/S - at least in my mind. CFIT W/S events usually involve a nose-up attitude.

Honestly it almost looks like they had some sort of stab issue. Possibly a runaway.

Even a stall from a botched GA would almost certainly involve one wing stalling first and rolling into the ground. Those wings appear nearly level.

[Edited 2016-03-21 16:15:03]
Southeast Of Disorder
 
eielef
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:16 pm

Quoting BoeingBear (Reply 174):
LS notwithstanding, RWY 04 was not an option as the wind was out of 240.

Isn't it than an ILS can be used on a "reverse mode"? Using the ILS technology, you could safely approach to RWY 22, although the ILS is on RWY 04...

In Rostov, most of landings occur on RWY 22, while take offs at RWY 04, because the airport (specially RWY 04) is very close to the city. There is not a thing like noise restrictions (as you have in other airports) but just the runway ends in heavy populated area, called Proletarskiy Raion (Proletarian District), which is one of the 8 districts (or neighbourhoods or boroughs) of the city of Rostov/Don.
 
sierrakilo44
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:18 pm

Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 149):
Quoting slvrblt (Reply 161):
What about military pilots? They fly supersonic jets, take all those g's, go rocketing off aircraft carriers or rough airfields in all weathers and situations. And they don't go flying themselves into the ocean or other terrain. I'm really asking here, what the heck is going on with commercial pilots???

Ummmmmm, military pilots have made mistakes which have crashed planes, plenty of times?:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_Fairchild_Air_Force_Base_B-52_crash

http://www.military.com/daily-news/2...ed-in-fatal-afghanistan-crash.html

http://www.marinecorpstimes.com/stor...-marine-helicopter-crash/74288256/

http://www.stripes.com/news/report-o...t-error-nose-imperfection-1.334188

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Polish_Air_Force_Tu-154_crash

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Alaska_C-17_crash

And a quick Google search turned up even more.

In 2015, there were about 40 million scheduled airline flights world wide, 5 fatal crashes.

So far this year we've had 2 (inc the twin otter in Nepal) and possibly this one due to pilot error after about 10 million scheduled airline flights.

I'd say the vast vast majority of commercial pilots are doing a great job given the circumstances. My hope is that any underplaying factors in this crash (training, fatigue etc) are fixed when the details of the crash are known.
 
s5daw
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:27 pm

For some reason this reminds me of the recent CRJ crash in Sweden. Night, bank, what appears to be intentional pitch down and high speed nose down impact in a very short time.

Of course there's plenty of differences as well, like FZ actually had visual clues, which makes me wonder how they could lose situational awareness as much as CRJ crew did? I mean, they had to see RWY lights approaching them fast?

Somehow I'm not sure this is a stall. They were in a climb for 30 seconds when the event started. Wouldn't they already have excessive pitch problems by that time?

According to ADSB they were climbing by 4000fpm, but in a pretty constant rate. However, in their first attempt they were climbing much slower, why the difference? The other difference is airspeed was from 120-140kts in first climb and 130-170 in the second. Again, why such difference?

What is really interesting is the constant acceleration rate through the whole event. Look at the speed:
00:41:00Z - 142kts
00:41:12Z - 150kts; +8kts in 12s
00:41:25Z - 164kts; +14kts in 12s
00:41:37Z - 185kts; +19kts in 12s, this is the last data point before pitch down
00:41:60Z - 197kts; +22kts in 12s, this is the last data point

I know a plane an stall at any speed, but would we see constant VSI and speed increase if they were about to stall?
What could explain quite linear acceleration before pitch down and after pitch down?
Is it relevant that in the previous attempt they climbed at 140kts, then levelled off and then accelerated to 250kts?
What happens if one selects 250kts (and nothing else) in the autopilot and forgets monitoring just about everything else?
 
awthompson
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:37 pm

The only positive side to this very sad event is that those on board would not have felt any pain or sensation whatsoever, such was the instantaneous complete destruction of the aircraft. Probably one of the most painless ways to leave this life, unfortunately though far to soon for all on board. (No details necessary.)
 
F9Animal
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:52 pm

Quoting dmsolovyev (Reply 155):
Another video from surveillance camera: a larger angle of view. Looks scary, I should say  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AlAjy7hg_Y

This video makes me feel that spatial disorientation could be a potential key factor in this. I couldn't imagine what the pilots saw in the windscreen in the last few seconds. It doesn't even look like they had the chance to recover from that. As morbid as it sounds, it is safe to say nobody on that plane suffered. But, it doesn't take the pain the family and loved ones are feeling.

Few questions. Are the families and loved ones being properly taken care of? We have seen some pretty bad PR regarding the treatment and updates from recent disasters. Also, I heard the CVR and FDR were damaged. Does anyone know if they will be able to recover anything from them? Has Fly Dubai made any statements?
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awthompson
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:58 pm

Quoting barney captain (Reply 175):
Even a stall from a botched GA would almost certainly involve one wing stalling first and rolling into the ground. Those wings appear nearly level.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AlAjy7hg_Y

When all of the available videos thus far are studied, I figure that the wings were not level. In the latest video linked above, probably the best one available so far, it is likely that you are looking at the top of the aircraft, not the belly. I base this on my analysis of the first video which was released that shows the event unfolding from the other side of the runway (the clip shot through trees). I believe in that one we are looking at the belly of the aircraft, so this latest one must be top down. In this latest video, the glow in the centre of the aircraft would therefore be the landing lights reflecting on the engine nacelles in my analysis.

If my analysis is correct, the flight deck crew would not have seen the airport lights in the final seconds after breaking through the cloud base as their view would have been the dark side of the field, ie. the terminal lights and likely most of the runway lights were hidden beneath them so to speak. For those who don't understand what I mean, the aircraft was diving with wings almost in a 90° left roll and the nose pointing in or around the left edge of the runway so that the flight deck window view would largely have been the grass on the opposite side to the runway from the terminal.

Does anyone concur or follow my thinking?
 
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 12:04 am

Quoting dmsolovyev (Reply 155):
Another video from surveillance camera: a larger angle of view. Looks scary, I should say http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AlAj...7hg_Y

Chilling video  
Quoting barney captain (Reply 165):
It looks to me like a sudden nose-over occurred just prior to them breaking out
Quoting barney captain (Reply 165):
It's almost as if it were some sort of flight control issue.

Reading that reminds me of the 737 rudder PCU malfunctions / crashes in the 1990s...

Quoting barney captain (Reply 167):
but it appears that the "top of the arc" occurs just as the glow becomes visible, with an increase nose down pitch just after.

Again, it's hard to tell.

That's also how it looks to me.

[Edited 2016-03-21 17:07:01]
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
Ruscoe
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 12:06 am

Quoting CabSauv (Reply 168):
ATC transcript + FR24 flight path

When I look at this video a few things strike me.

1.Are there normally QNH GFE checks on final, and did these distract the pilots?
2. After the 2nd go around, when the descent starts, is that about the point the slats/flaps would begin to be retracted?
3. Is this also the point where the autopilot might have been re-engaged?
4. The trajectory of the aircraft once the fatal descent starts, isn't parabolic?
5. Could ice be a factor?

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Starlionblue
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 12:16 am

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 148):
in this specific case, more automation (i.e. flight envelope protection) could have prevented the accident.

We don't know that.


Quoting Revelation (Reply 140):

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 112):
Yes and no. Automation has made the workload much easier, and more precise. However, we have seen a few accidents where automation hinders the ability to save the plane. Until that part of the problem is fixed, the problem remains. Becoming reliant on automation can make someone lazy in a way, and it certainly can be a problem when adding fatigue to the equation.

It's tragic that the use of automation diminishes the skills needed to hand fly the plane and that the automation disengages during the most difficult times to hand fly the plane, with the result that the skills needed to deal with the difficulty have atrophied due to the automation doing all the work during the less difficult times.

Hand flying is important. But we mustn't forget situational awaremness, importantly including mode awareness. Understand what the airplane is telling you. If you're not aware of what the aircraft is doing, from its attitude to what modes the automation is in, no amount of handflying prowess will save you in IMC. You can follow the flight directors all you want but those flight directors will happily lead you to your doom if you're in an inappropriate mode for the situation.

There is a general principle that if the aircraft is in a managed mode (e.g. LNAV, VNAV) and not behaving like you want it to, revert to a selected mode (e.g. HDG, V/S). If the aircraft then still does not behave like you want it to, hand fly. And at all times "fly the aircraft" first. However that principle is rather hard to apply if you don't have a good understanding of what the modes mean to you. And even if you understand the modes perfectly, if pilots have missed an FMA annunciation about a mode change, you can get in trouble fast.

But now we have to add another wrinkle: the human brain. Wnen you're alert and awake on a nice day, you have plenty of brainpower for complex flying tasks. When you're tired, stressed, at the wrong end of your body clock and shooting an approach in difficult weather in the dark, it is easy to start missing things.

Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 149):

This may be a bit off-topic, but I hear the lack of manual flying skills repeated as a problem.

May be. But I think it is actually slightly different. If you look at the various different accidents (AF 447 etc), it is often the case that the pilots are capable of flying, but the issue is more about situational awareness. They don't understand they are in a stall.

You may feel that the distinction is one without significant. But I think we have to be very careful about what the problems are, in order to understand how to correct the situation. If the situation is that people don't know how to fly manually, or are inexperienced in manual flying, then the obvious recipe is more hand flying.

But if the pilots tend to lose situation awareness when the computer quits or an otherwise complex situation presents itself, that's a whole different problem. You should train more situational awareness, dealing with surprises, monitoring techniques, the ability to quickly find the reliable sources of information. And that's a much more difficult training task. Mere more hand flying won't help this.

        

Quoting slvrblt (Reply 161):
Pilotaydin, you mention this ''somatogravic illusion.'' Never heard of that, but then I'm not a pilot. From previous discussion I take it thats something like vertigo. Accepting that, this can't be something that just came up, right? Isn't this something all pilots over the years have known about and trained for?

As mentioned, we do train for it. But the brain is a peculiar thing. When you're tired, your brain does its best to revert to basic behaviours. It tends to discard conflicting inputs more easily. It tends to revert to instinct.

Training and experience help a lot, and yet...

Quoting slvrblt (Reply 161):
What about military pilots? They fly supersonic jets, take all those g's, go rocketing off aircraft carriers or rough airfields in all weathers and situations. And they don't go flying themselves into the ocean or other terrain.

They do. Military pilots fly their aircraft into the ground with far more regularity than airline pilots. To be fair though, military pilots often live at the edge of the envelope while we try to stay firmly near the center.

Quoting eielef (Reply 176):

Quoting BoeingBear (Reply 174):
LS notwithstanding, RWY 04 was not an option as the wind was out of 240.

Isn't it than an ILS can be used on a "reverse mode"? Using the ILS technology, you could safely approach to RWY 22, although the ILS is on RWY 04...

This would be a back-course approach, which has lateral guidance but no vertical guidance (glideslope). Only legal in some countries, and many carriers don't allow its use even when legal.

[Edited 2016-03-21 17:21:10]

[Edited 2016-03-21 17:22:57]

[Edited 2016-03-21 17:24:27]

[Edited 2016-03-21 17:33:00]

[Edited 2016-03-21 17:34:05]
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
LTC8K6
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 12:18 am

Avherald reporting that both recorders were successfully red. Hope that's true.

"On Mar 20th 2016 the MAK reported both recorders received substantial mechanical damage, the memory modules are being removed from the recorders and are being prepared for read out, the preparatory work is expected to be finished by end of Mar 20th 2016. Late Mar 20th 2016 the MAK added, that the flight data recorder has been successfully read out and contains the data in good quality until impact of the aircraft, works to analyse the data have already started. The cockpit voice recorder memory module has received mechanical damage requiring repairs, checks of whether the non-volatile memory is still readable are going to commence after the repairs.

In the evening of Mar 21st 2016 the MAK reported that the repairs were successful and the cockpit voice recorder has been read out and contains good quality recordings until impact. The recording is now being transcribed and analysed."
 
barney captain
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 12:34 am

Quoting s5daw (Reply 178):
According to ADSB they were climbing by 4000fpm, but in a pretty constant rate. However, in their first attempt they were climbing much slower, why the difference?

The 737 autothrottles have a two position go-around function. I push of TO/GA advances the thrust to approximate 1500-1800FPM, a second push commands full thrust. This may explain it.

Quoting s5daw (Reply 178):
The other difference is airspeed was from 120-140kts in first climb and 130-170 in the second. Again, why such difference?

I think ADSB data is groundspeed - ?? The gusting wind could account for the fluctuations, both in indicated and ground speed.
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 12:37 am

Quoting s5daw (Reply 178):
For some reason this reminds me of the recent CRJ crash in Sweden. Night, bank, what appears to be intentional pitch down and high speed nose down impact in a very short time.

I'm not up to speed if there's been any findings on the CRJ, but the starting point is very, very different. The CRJ was in cruise when something catastrophic happened. In this event, almost everything was different. More or less the only thing common to these events is the nose-down impact, and of course night time.

/Fredrik
 
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Gonzalo
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 12:50 am

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 180):
Also, I heard the CVR and FDR were damaged. Does anyone know if they will be able to recover anything from them?

AFAIK from previous reading here, the external cases of the boxes were severely damaged, which is normal considering the extremely high energy impact they suffered. But that's not mean the solid state memories will be not read-able. Many times the boxes looks completely messy, burned, cracked ( in a single Word: "destroyed" ), but the solid state memory is later transferred completely, with all the information needed. Let's see what we know in the future about this specific case.

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Shmendr
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 2:01 am

Question for pilots.

One thing that, thankfully, did not happen in the crash of FZ981 is the plane crashing into the airport terminal building.

Question is, do ATCs across the world effectively direct the airplanes away from flying above the terminal buildings after an aborted landing? Is there such a world-wide guide in all airports to avoid a slim-chance of plane stalling above the terminal?

thank you
 
jetblueguy22
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 2:01 am

Quoting dmsolovyev (Reply 155):

Another video from surveillance camera: a larger angle of view. Looks scary, I should say  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AlAjy7hg_Y

Wow that is terrifying. It doesn't even look like they were trying to pitch up(or perhaps couldn't). I would have expected it the approach to be a little more flat, that was steep!

Makes me wonder, how would the control surfaces react with a bank that extreme? I know aircraft are built strong, but a 21,000fpm descent rate is so far out of the normal operating range, I have to imagine control would be beyond difficult for an aircraft that isn't FBW.
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BoeingBear
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 2:24 am

Quoting eielef (Reply 174):
Isn't it than an ILS can be used on a "reverse mode"? Using the ILS technology, you could safely approach to RWY 22, although the ILS is on RWY 04...
Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 182):
This would be a back-course approach, which has lateral guidance but no vertical guidance (glideslope). Only legal in some countries, and many carriers don't allow its use even when legal.

Which wouldn't have been necessary as RWY 22 has a localizer, which would have been preferable to any back-course procedure.

Quoting barney captain (Reply 173):
That new video doesn't support W/S - at least in my mind. CFIT W/S events usually involve a nose-up attitude.

Microburst, perhaps? On the transcript, the tower told them at 0102 GMT "on final, severe turbulence and moderate windshear."
 
barney captain
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 2:48 am

Quoting BoeingBear (Reply 189):
Microburst, perhaps?

Microburst/WS are essentially the same in this scenario - both typically resulting in a nose up or flat attitude on impact.

If that truly is a sudden nose over, it creates more questions than it answers.
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copter808
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 3:05 am

Quoting Enzo011 (Reply 147):
I am sure someone has the statistics, but if before automation there was a crash every 1 in 20 000 flights (example) and now we have a crash 1 in every 50 000 flights (example again) that is a good thing. The fact that the current, rare crashes are due to pilots losing some skills due to automation is still better than when every pilot out there was brilliant at hand flying their aircraft but crashing more of the time, right?

That would depend on WHY the safety record improved. I would expect much of it to be because of OTHER factors.
 
Wayfarer515
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 3:13 am

Guys, this is another video just posted in Youtube, you can see the airplane descending below the ceiling, the start of the climb and then the sudden dive, just horrible.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7a2MJQbc5Zg

[Edited 2016-03-21 20:23:03]
 
barney captain
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 3:18 am

Yikes.

They were well into the GA when things went south.
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Armodeen
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 3:21 am

Quoting ual777 (Reply 110):

Again thanks for your learned and useful insights.
 
Flightsimboy
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 3:25 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 180):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AlAj...7hg_Y
Quoting Wayfarer515 (Reply 192):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7a2MJQbc5Zg

Why are the times 0345 in one and 0445 in the other. Also the second of impact is different. Off by . At the end of the day though just terrible, to think they climbed and then just fell out of the sky.
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Starlionblue
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 3:38 am

Quoting flightsimboy (Reply 195):
Why are the times 0345 in one and 0445 in the other. Also the second of impact is different

Russia used to have Daylight Saving Time so it could just be a fact of one being on the wrong time. The second of impact difference is probably just the clocks being slightly off.
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747megatop
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 3:54 am

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 3):
Actual airline pilots are not "so-called" experts - they are experts. There is nobody who knows more about flying an airliner than an airline pilot. Disputing their firsthand experience or questioning their knowledge on this particular subject would (and does) make anyone look foolish. And if nothing else, simply by labeling them "so-called" experts, you are questioning their knowledge.

We have this discussion here literally every time there's an accident. Asking questions is fine, even informed speculation is fine. But getting into an argument with an airline pilot about whether or not they're an expert in this field is not fine. At that point, before clicking the submit button it's time to sit back and really think about what you're actually trying to do in this thread.

Firstly, after looking at the video, the only thing we know is that the plane appears to dive [key word here is appears] at a steep angle to the ground. Period. The rest is just wild speculation.

Secondly; the only experts that matter now are the actual ones who will be investigating the crash; keeping an open mind to see where the evidence leads them & how they interpret the evidence. The others...shrug...what experts? Experts in flying a 777? experts in flying a 380? experts in designing an engine? experts in designing airplanes? ....doesn't really matter at this point until a specific one is called upon by the investigators to assist and have access to the evidence.

[Edited 2016-03-21 21:07:31]
 
flightless
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 3:55 am

There's a bit of illusion going on in the last couple of videos.

When the aircraft is about to break out of the clouds, the bright spot you see is where the landing lights are shining on the cloud; it's the cloud surface and isn't moving (not appreciably, with respect to aircraft speeds), even though the aircraft is. As soon as the airplane pops out of the cloud, you see its actual motion.

So, although it appears to suddenly switch from stable to sudden downward motion, that's not really the case.

If we take the vertical height to the cloud layer as 630 meters as stated by ATC, and an elapsed time of 3.8 seconds from cloud exit to ground impact, that would require a vertical acceleration of 8.89 g. I'm pretty sure that's beyond the 737's capabilities. The downward motion began in earnest well before cloud exit.

[Edited 2016-03-21 20:57:42]

[Edited 2016-03-21 21:21:27]
 
wjcandee
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 4:19 am

Quoting barney captain (Reply 193):
They were well into the GA when things went south.

That video does the best job of reflecting the timing of the accident sequence and the relative speed of a GA climb vs the falling-out-of-the-sky crash. It looks to be nearly a nose-down descent. I couldn't autorotate a helicopter that fast. It is really dropping like a streamlined anvil.

Well, they apparently now have read out the CVR and the DFDR. So the rumours of what was found should be breaking shortly, and maybe even a little official information, too.

[Edited 2016-03-21 21:22:18]

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