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PlanesNTrains
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 4:30 am

Quoting s5daw (Reply 176):
Of course there's plenty of differences as well, like FZ actually had visual clues, which makes me wonder how they could lose situational awareness as much as CRJ crew did? I mean, they had to see RWY lights approaching them fast?

I think by the time they broke out of the clouds and maybe saw the runway, it was way too late to do anything. Just my opinion.

Quoting s5daw (Reply 176):
According to ADSB they were climbing by 4000fpm, but in a pretty constant rate. However, in their first attempt they were climbing much slower, why the difference?

Pilotaydin covered this previously in the thread. I can't go back and look through to find it but essentially it was a light aircraft, full throttle, their acceleration gave them the sensation of climbing too fast so they pushed the nose down, and they got lost in it all. I'll refer you to his posts earlier (could be the first thread) where he explained why this might have been the way it happened.

Quoting s5daw (Reply 176):
What is really interesting is the constant acceleration rate through the whole event. Look at the speed:
00:41:00Z - 142kts
00:41:12Z - 150kts; +8kts in 12s
00:41:25Z - 164kts; +14kts in 12s
00:41:37Z - 185kts; +19kts in 12s, this is the last data point before pitch down
00:41:60Z - 197kts; +22kts in 12s, this is the last data point

Again, see Pilotaydin's posts describing this, but it's essentially - from what I can tell - what might happen with a lightly loaded 737 going to takeoff power in a go-around situation and as they pushed the nose down the aircraft continued to accelerate.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
T prop
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 4:42 am

Stalled for some reason? With all the warning and preventative measures built into an airliner you would think this would not happen.
 
barney captain
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 5:16 am

Quoting T prop (Reply 201):
Stalled for some reason? With all the warning and preventative measures built into an airliner you would think this would not happen.

Again, it's tough to tell, but I didn't see any sign of a typical stall. In a swept wing a/c, you nearly always have one wing roll off first causing a spiral into the ground. This - at least apparently - looks like a wings level push over. Sad.
Southeast Of Disorder
 
Mir
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 5:22 am

Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 149):
This may be a bit off-topic, but I hear the lack of manual flying skills repeated as a problem.

May be. But I think it is actually slightly different. If you look at the various different accidents (AF 447 etc), it is often the case that the pilots are capable of flying, but the issue is more about situational awareness. They don't understand they are in a stall.

That's normally in conjunction with some sort of failure. The reason AF447's crew didn't understand they were stalled is because they received what they believed (not unreasonably given the air data failures) were erroneous stall indications and were unable to figure out that they were not in fact erroneous. Take away the failure and that very likely doesn't happen.

Then you have accidents like OZ214. That one didn't have so much to do with situational awareness as the crew's failure to get the aircraft to do what they wanted it to do even with everything working as it was designed to do. That's an issue of basic flying skills.

We don't know whether there was a mechanical or automation failure here. But if there wasn't one, it really does seem like the crew was simply not able to control the airplane. And if you can't do that, then you can't even begin to bring situational awareness into the picture.

Quoting barney captain (Reply 163):
It looks to me like a sudden nose-over occurred just prior to them breaking out. It's almost as if it were some sort of flight control issue.

Stick pusher? If they got into enough of a nose-high attitude because of the pitch due to thrust, it's possible it could be triggered.

-Mir
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barney captain
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 5:31 am

Quoting Mir (Reply 203):
Stick pusher? If they got into enough of a nose-high attitude because of the pitch due to thrust, it's possible it could be triggered.

Interesting thought, but no pusher in any 737 that I'm aware of - just a shaker. But I agree, that's exactly how it looks.
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Web500sjc
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 5:45 am

Quoting Mir (Reply 203):
possible it could be triggered.

Wouldn't a pusher/shocker, being a stall warning device, be activated by an excessive angle of attack?

From my understanding a stall warning is not activated by pitch but by angle of attack.



Also it is a wonder why they initiated a go around after breaking out of the clouds into visual conditions so far from, the runway. I can only determine 3 reasons:
A) unstable approach (in this case leading to an unstable go around)
B) windshear
C) ATC called.

The reason for the go around is just as important to the investigation as to why the aircraft nosed over.

[Edited 2016-03-21 22:46:17]

[Edited 2016-03-21 22:47:08]
Boiler Up!
 
T prop
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 5:47 am

Quoting barney captain (Reply 202):
Again, it's tough to tell, but I didn't see any sign of a typical stall. In a swept wing a/c, you nearly always have one wing roll off first causing a spiral into the ground. This - at least apparently - looks like a wings level push over. Sad.

The nose down angle seems extreme, can the airplane be pushed over that quick from low altitude with out breaking something? A stalled wing dropping and the nose following probably would end like that.
 
Mir
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 5:50 am

Quoting barney captain (Reply 204):
no pusher in any 737 that I'm aware of - just a shaker.

Interesting. Upon further reading, it seems there is a system that will provide more nose-down force in the event of an imminent stall, which I guess is a form of pusher but a much less abrupt one.

I wonder what sort of stall training the pilots received. Historically, stall training has been quite unrealistic as relates to real-world scenarios where stalls are likely to occur. I also wonder how much training they received on two-engine go-arounds, as normally the focus is far more on the single-engine variety, and the two don't necessarily act the same way.

Quoting Web500sjc (Reply 205):
Wouldn't a pusher/shocker, being a stall warning device, be activated by an excessive angle of attack?

Yes, but generally it's a high pitch angle that will lead to a high angle of attack.

-Mir
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Hywel
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 6:05 am

If anyone had any doubt - Link

Quote:
An accident involving a Flydubai plane was inevitable, a former Flydubai captain told RT on condition of anonymity. He revealed that pilots are forced to work while exhausted, while saying he had been “worked to death” despite complaints.

Speaking to RT in Doha, the former pilot said Flydubai’s top management was aware of the issue, but had done nothing to resolve it. “When I was still at the company, one of the last things I told management is that there would be an accident because of pilot fatigue,” he said.

RT also obtained the flight log of the co-captain of flight FZ981, which revealed that Alejandro Cruz Alava had worked for 11 days with only one day off prior to the crash. The whistleblower commented on the documents, stating that Alava had been transferred from day flights to night flights without being given enough time to readjust his sleep pattern. “[Alava] was working eleven days in a row with the exception of one day off, which was Tuesday March 15th,” the former pilot said. “There’s is no doubt he was fatigued and exhausted for this flight ... that definitely was a contributing factor, no matter how [Flydubai] may try to deny it.”


An Air Safety Report (ASR) from September 2015 seen by RT shows that many pilots reported showing up for work feeling exhausted and overworked.

One of the submissions read: “I called in fatigued today for a 0125 local report. Prior to this I had 10 days duty with one day off. Those duties consisted of two 18-30 hour rest periods, a layover, 2 very early reports and 2 long double sector days. The combination of this has meant that I have had very little quality sleep throughout this roster period. I would also contribute the previous month’s roster, where I was roster for 92 hours, a contributing factor to fatigue that I am feeling.”

Another submission said: “Called fatigued … Was unable to get sufficient sleep before start of standby, albeit all efforts made … Issue is if I am called off standby for a long duty … that’s potentially well over 24 hours no sleep operating a flight.”
 
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7BOEING7
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 6:18 am

Quoting Mir (Reply 207):
Interesting. Upon further reading, it seems there is a system that will provide more nose-down force in the event of an imminent stall, which I guess is a form of pusher but a much less abrupt one.

If not mentioned above there are three systems that aid in identifying and controlling the airplane during high AOA situations -- SMYD (Stall Managemen/Yaw Damper), EFS (Elevator Feel System) and the speed trim system. The SMYD reduces yaw damper commanded rudder movements, the EFS increases forward column force and the speed trim system trims the stabilizer nose down.
 
spacecookie
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 6:29 am

Rip for all the passengers.

Airliners considere one thing, no one wants to die, so if it was a pilot error, it still was an accident

I hope they get some good conclusions out of this crash, to prevent similar problems in the future.
 
barney captain
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 6:40 am

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 209):
If not mentioned above there are three systems that aid in identifying and controlling the airplane during high AOA situations -- SMYD (Stall Managemen/Yaw Damper), EFS (Elevator Feel System) and the speed trim system. The SMYD reduces yaw damper commanded rudder movements, the EFS increases forward column force and the speed trim system trims the stabilizer nose down.

Perfectly stated Boeing - and yes 100% correct.

An important thing to distinguish here is the EFS simply increases fwd column force (making it harder to pull-back), as opposed to a full "stick pusher" that some a/c utilize as a last attempt to break an impending stall condition.

Stalling the 737 in the sim, the EFS is literally invisible in operation. (Or maybe I'm just too task saturated to notice).

Again. if seeing is believing, I'm beginning to suspect a runway stab trim. On a typical (non a/p) GA, it's fairly common to start adding some nose down trim to counteract the nose up force of the increasing thrust. If that trim ran away at that moment.....

Interestingly, runaway stab trim is one of the few items on our Quick Reference Card.

[Edited 2016-03-21 23:43:31]
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mandala499
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 6:48 am

Quoting ual777 (Reply 143):
In addition I've heard of ops contacting crews via ACARS if they choose to divert and calling them in for a carpet dance with the chief pilot afterwards.

Sorry, a friend working in one of the "Middle-Eastern Slave Ship" diverted, no, didn't get a carpet dance with the chief afterwards. It's cruel on fatigue, but not brutal on overall safety. Let's keep things in perspective.

Quoting eielef (Reply 168):
I would rule out the idea of crew fatigue, they seem so fast in all communications,

If you've heard crew talking when they're tired, often enough, you can tell that the crew of this fateful flight, was definitely not "not tired"...

Quoting s5daw (Reply 176):
I know a plane an stall at any speed, but would we see constant VSI and speed increase if they were about to stall?

Increase in groundspeed could be due to decreasing headwind too. But, in this case, we see decreasing headwind as the airplane goes lower, so as it climbed we should see the groundspeed decreasing if it was on constant airspeed. The groundspeed was increasing all the time, and that the headwind was increasing. I'd rule out a stall.
You don't stall a 737 as you accelerate through 190Kts GroundSpeed on a headwind while you're doing -8.5m/s² vertical acceleration...

Quoting eielef (Reply 174):
Isn't it than an ILS can be used on a "reverse mode"? Using the ILS technology, you could safely approach to RWY 22, although the ILS is on RWY 04...

No... ROV has no back course ILS course for 22. 22 has it's own ILS approach and the chart specifies that localizer only approaches (no glideslope) is not authorized there. Throw out the back course idea out of the window, now, quickly and surely, please!

Quoting Shmendr (Reply 187):
Question is, do ATCs across the world effectively direct the airplanes away from flying above the terminal buildings after an aborted landing? Is there such a world-wide guide in all airports to avoid a slim-chance of plane stalling above the terminal?

Simple answer: NO. You follow the missed approach procedure on the chart. In this case is go straight to a certain altitude before turning southeast.
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
T prop
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 6:54 am

Looks like it rolls right in this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AlAjy7hg_Y&feature=youtu.be
 
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enzo011
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 7:18 am

Quoting copter808 (Reply 191):
That would depend on WHY the safety record improved. I would expect much of it to be because of OTHER factors.

What other factors would you think caused this? Just by going of the posts after ever accident (AFAIR) there is always posters posting that while automation is good it has led to pilots loss of hand flying ability. But the following seems to be true as well:

A: There are more flights than ever, meaning there are more pilots
B: The safety has improved in the industry
C: Automation has increased in aircraft use
D: Pilots are getting worse as they cannot hand fly an aircraft


If pilots are getting worse because they never learned to hand fly like to old timers, yet there are more pilots than ever because there is more flights than ever, what other factors could have reduced the overall safety of air travel today vs 40 years ago?
 
santi319
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 7:23 am

Quoting Hywel (Reply 208):

Yup just like I shared on reply 118 a few days ago... Bound to happen... ME slaveships..
 
ual777
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 7:40 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 212):
Sorry, a friend working in one of the "Middle-Eastern Slave Ship" diverted, no, didn't get a carpet dance with the chief afterwards. It's cruel on fatigue, but not brutal on overall safety. Let's keep things in perspective

It doesn't take a hard look on other forums with first hand accounts.
It is always darkest before the sun comes up.
 
Hywel
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 7:59 am

Quoting santi319 (Reply 215):
Yup just like I shared on reply 118 a few days ago... Bound to happen... ME slaveships..

What I find most shocking is this:

Quote:
Most of the pilots foresaw the possibility of a crash due to over-exhaustion. The former pilot cited an internal survey that asked “Do you think there’s going to be a crash?”

“Over 80% of the pilots that participated … said yes, there will be a crash at Flydubai. And it’s unbelievable, I mean they knew this was coming, they absolutely knew it and of course they will blame it on the pilots.”
 
CF-CPI
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 11:11 am

Quoting T prop (Reply 213):
Looks like it rolls right in this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AlAj...tu.be

This video has apparently been removed from YouTube.
 
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zeke
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 12:01 pm

Quoting slvrblt (Reply 159):
OK. Zeke, Pilotaydin, Pihero, respected airplane driver experts - I have questions, please.

What's happened; have pilots nowadays become just ''flight system managers?'' Aren't they taught to fly the darn things too? (sounds sarcastic but not intended that way).

I have no idea what happened I can only speculate like anyone else with the limited information (and misinformation) made available. They seemed to execute a normal missed approach to 4000 ft, why the aircraft departed from the expected trajectory from that point is something the investigations will need to work out with the facts available to them.

I trust the FDR/CVR will prove to be very useful for this.

The surface conditions when they did their second approach seemed reasonable to me, 230 12-18 mps (approx 24-36 kts) just 10 degree of the runway seems reasonable, 3500 m of visibility and scattered cloud at 2000 ft. I dont know what the wind gradient was on approach or for the go-around.
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Gonzalo
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 3:24 pm

Looking at this last video available, we can say one thing with certainty : the elapsed time from a "normal" attitude ( one second before the Go Around was initiated ), and the moment of impact/crash, is less than one minute. Probably around 45 or 50 seconds. Someone could say that this is the usual business in the cockpit, under an emergency situation you must assest the situation quickly and take decisions fast and without hesitation or you will be in trouble.... but I think is totally fair to say that, pilot error or not ( we don't know yet why the aircraft ended up in that attitude ), they had a very little chance to correct the unusual attitude of the aircraft, they had less than one minute to solve the problem ( no matter what the problem was or who's fault was, it was really FAST and very close to the ground )... after a long flight and holding, they could be fatigued / low on reactions, making a very bad situation even worse. Very very Sad really.

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CabSauv
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 4:27 pm

Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 220):
the elapsed time from a "normal" attitude ( one second before the Go Around was initiated ), and the moment of impact/crash, is less than one minute. Probably around 45 or 50 seconds

Have a look at this video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7a2MJQbc5Zg#t=86
 
santi319
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 4:43 pm

Quoting Hywel (Reply 217):

What I find most shocking is this:

Quote:
Most of the pilots foresaw the possibility of a crash due to over-exhaustion. The former pilot cited an internal survey that asked “Do you think there’s going to be a crash?”

“Over 80% of the pilots that participated … said yes, there will be a crash at Flydubai. And it’s unbelievable, I mean they knew this was coming, they absolutely knew it and of course they will blame it on the pilots.”


The person I am talking about, who also happens to be my best friend, expressed the same
Concerns when we spend time together in December. He also lost a good friend.. The crews are not very happy..
 
klwright69
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 4:56 pm

Has anybody else seen the video on live leaks? This is the first time I have seen this one. It's even better than the other one.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=5f7_1458594998
 
CF-CPI
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 5:07 pm

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 223):
Has anybody else seen the video on live leaks? This is the first time I have seen this one. It's even better than the other one.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=5f7_1458594998

From that angle, the aircraft appears to be in a near-vertical dive.
 
SJCMSP
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 6:16 pm

It seems we've seen three videos so far. Please correct me if there are more.
1) Appears to be taken in a parking lot adjacent to the runway and appears to be roughly perpendicular to the flight path.
2) (the one where you can see the strobe blinking) Appears to be off the end of the runway a bit and off to the right looking back toward the airport.
3) Appears to be off the end of the runway and off to the left quite a bit farther away and looking back at the airport.

It also appears there may be another video in reply 13 that has been removed from YouTube.
 
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Gonzalo
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 6:40 pm

Quoting CabSauv (Reply 221):
Have a look at this video.

That's the one I was talking about. If you take 03:45:05 as te moment of the Go Around Call ( looking at the landing lights, that second seems to be the moment when the aircraft change attitude and starts the go around) ... you have * exactly 56 seconds * between that specific moment and the crash. Less than one minute.

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trnswrld
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 7:26 pm

Quoting CabSauv (Reply 221):
Have a look at this video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7a2MJ...#t=86

Wow that video is scary as well. In this one you can actually see the aircraft on approach under the clouds, goes back up through the clouds, then maybe about a half a minute later comes back through the clouds in a very steep dive. Ugh, what the heck went on up there from the point then climbed back into the clouds? 
 
 
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 8:06 pm

The angle and distance of that video make it hard to tell, but it doesn't even look like it traveled all that far distance-wise from where it disappeared into the clouds, and then came rocketing back out, straight down.
 
BoeingBear
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 8:47 pm

Quoting barney captain (Reply 190):
Microburst/WS are essentially the same in this scenario - both typically resulting in a nose up or flat attitude on impact.

Can you explain? I'm an admittedly low-time PPL with instrument rating, and I'm thinking of the graphic they show you in ground school like this:



Let's say for debate purposes that this 737 flew thru a microburst. Why couldn't it have ended up in a severe enough stall to lead to the ~70-degree down angle we saw on video?

Please don't shoot me for asking questions -- I'm not trying to pick a fight or suggest something crazy like a bomb. I'm simply to learn from those with more flight hours than me.
 
awthompson
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Tue Mar 22, 2016 11:03 pm

I think a microburst is unlikely. Discussion of microburst and other weather phenomenon often come up in the aftermath of crashes such as this but it often turns out not to be a factor. I think it is more likely that we are dealing with loss of stable flight when hand flying the aircraft incorporating a stall, spatial disorientation, not reacting to the aircraft rolling or pitching outside normal flight limits, reacting incorrectly to such pitching/rolling/imminent stall or a combination of these, and possibly exacerbated by tiredness and slower reaction times of pilots.

Albeit we are dealing with a different aircraft type but this accident profile to me appears very like the Air Excel / Air New Zealand Airbus A320 that crashed into the sea not that long ago off the south of France on a test flight when the aircraft pitched up, stalled, then came down very quickly from a similar altitude and in a similar fashion to the one we are discussing (upside down and in a very steep nose dive).

Correct me if I'm wrong (anyone) but aren't microbursts strong enough to cause major upset to the control of an airliner generally connected with convective cloud, ie towering cumulonimbus which are usually identified by thunder and lightening?
 
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777Jet
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:41 am

Quoting trnswrld (Reply 227):
Ugh, what the heck went on up there from the point then climbed back into the clouds?

Maybe the climb is explained by another aborted landing?
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Wed Mar 23, 2016 8:33 am

Not sure if this leak on pilot fatigue at Flydubai and Emirates has been mentioned before:
https://www.rt.com/news/336823-pilots-respond-flydubai-leak-fatigue/

I've heard about Emirates unhuman resources management before, but why aren't the aviation authorities commenting about that?
 
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zkojq
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Wed Mar 23, 2016 9:52 am

The Captain's roster:
http://i.imgur.com/WOh6wTS.jpg

Quote:
“I know when I was still with Flydubai there were meetings every two weeks with the chief pilot … In most of those meetings [sleep deprivation] was always brought up and in fact in one of the meetings, the chief pilot referred to us as a bunch of prima donnas, like we complain too much, that’s exactly what he said. He said, ‘you guys are just a bunch of prima donnas'.”
Quote:
“[Alava] was working eleven days in a row with the exception of one day off, which was Tuesday March 15th,” the pilot said. “There’s is no doubt he was fatigued and exhausted for this flight ... that definitely was a contributing factor, no matter how [Flydubai] may try to deny it.”
Quote:
“The reason that the captain was resigning is because of the schedules, he just couldn’t do it anymore. He was too tired, going to work fatigued, and that is actually why he had resigned.”
Quote:
“When I still worked there, a pilot filed a safety report saying that he and another pilot fell asleep after taking off from one of the out stations and they were probably asleep for about eight minutes… I know that sounds crazy but it is extremely easy to fall asleep. It’s the same noise level and it’s quite boring, and the autopilot is on,” the former captain went on, adding there “there have been people report[ing] that they have completely fallen asleep at the controls at Flydubai and the company doesn’t do anything.”
http://www.rt.com/news/336821-fatigue-cause-flydubai-pilot/

I hope this accident results in fatigue issues being addressed and that they aren't just swept under the carpet again.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 31):
Now, the two hours' holding time...
It's always difficult to put oneself into someone else's shoes and I certainly do not have all the economic / operational picture of that particular UAE-Russia link.
Let's just say that an early diversion, after the first overshoot, would have allowed the crew to safely and restfully wait on the ground for weather conditions to improve at Rostov. As we know, fuel wasn't a concern.
Quoting ltbewr (Reply 38):
I wonder if CRM - Cockpit Resource Management - is a issue in this crash. The decision to land instead of diverting to another airport, a co-pilot unable or reluctant to try to override the PF's decisions, despite borderline risky weather conditions will be considered in the investigation of this crash, likely from the VCR.
Quoting klwright69 (Reply 64):
But when every other one of the few flights at that time were diverted, I guess we will find out why these pilots chose not to divert and pursue another landing. Maybe the crew discussed it.
Quoting lychemsa (Reply 72):
A Russian plane diverted to a nearby airport. Why didn't he do that I wonder instead of flying nowhere for 2 hours.
Quoting RayChuang (Reply 80):

I'm still seriously bothered by one thing: why didn't they just divert the plane to another airport with better weather conditions? It was obvious that even at the time of the attempted landing, the weather was still quite poor, a likely contributing factor to the crash.

Sounds like the airline's operations center wanted them to sit in the hold and wait for the weather to clear, rather than having them diverting (which would result in the crew timing out and the aircraft 'stuck' on the ground). Certain other aviation forums have mentioned cases when captains from the airline have initiated a diversion, but been told by the airline's Network Control Center to go back and try another approach.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 50):
What we're seeing ijhn the cctv is the landing light *burning* through the average exposure of those frames. Nothing else.

That was my impression.

Quoting copter808 (Reply 75):
I think that one of the contributing factors is going to be fatigue. Holding for two hours in the middle of the night is certainly not something that is going to keep your senses at a peak. Pretty easy to doze off during the hold.

The airline in question has an awful reputation for fatigue management (or lack thereof).

Quoting dubaiamman243 (Reply 81):
I am afraid that the management might have took the decision instead of the Captain and forced him to land at the airport. Maybe he was holding for 2 hours waiting for the weather to get better, then went to land the aircraft due to low fuel(??)

This would not surprise me at all.

Quoting zeke (Reply 82):
Sadly I suspect it would be a "commercial" consideration, diverting and recovering an aircraft as a foreign airline in Russia is no easy task.

  

Quoting barney captain (Reply 97):
Clickable link:

(remove the "s" after HTTP to allow the link to be clickable)

Why don't the moderators just make this automatic?? Its very annoying.

Quoting jetblueguy22 (Reply 104):
You keep placing the blame on management with 0 indication they had any role in the captain's decision.

I would suggest that some research onto the airline in question is inorder.

Quoting santi319 (Reply 118):
Well sorry to say this, but I know people that actually work in that airline as cabin crew, they do CRAZY redeye turns 6+ hours and back with pilots, and even BTS turns!!! I just don't know how are they allowed to get away with it.. And don't even think of calling sick or getting sick.. My friend got sick during a turn to an Indian city and they almost fired him even though he went to the hospital.. Oh yes the ME Airlines....leading the aviation world...

  

Quoting ual777 (Reply 120):
The ME airlines are slaveships compared to western airlines.

As far as the attitude of many of the Gulf Airline's management is concerned, foreign crew are barely a rung above filipino maids/cooks/nannies.

Quoting francoflier (Reply 130):
It is high time the flying public and authorities (those that aren't in on it) realized the ever growing danger of airlines increasingly pushing for productivity gains by rostering their pilots to within minutes of the maximum authorized flight time limitations on a permanent basis.

Absolutely. This isn't a new issue, but it is becoming more and more important.

Quoting ual777 (Reply 143):
They file fatigue reports that go ignored, and it seems that their managment teams are about 30-40 years behind in human factors.

In addition I've heard of ops contacting crews via ACARS if they choose to divert and calling them in for a carpet dance with the chief pilot afterwards.

  

Quoting Airbus747 (Reply 233):
I've heard about Emirates unhuman resources management before, but why aren't the aviation authorities commenting about that?

Wasn't the report into EK407 rejected twice by the GCAA until references to the airline's fatigue management issues were removed? If you look at the regulator, the GCAA, you will find that the Chairman of Emirates is on it's board of directors. If I had to speculate, I'd be fairly sure that the flight crew of FZ981 will be hung out to dry and have blame placed on them alone.

[Edited 2016-03-23 02:57:02]

[Edited 2016-03-23 02:58:30]
First to fly the 787-9
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Wed Mar 23, 2016 10:24 am

Quoting Airbus747 (Reply 233):

Not sure if this leak on pilot fatigue at Flydubai and Emirates has been mentioned before:
https://www.rt.com/news/336823-pilots-respond-flydubai-leak-fatigue/

I've heard about Emirates unhuman resources management before, but why aren't the aviation authorities commenting about that?

Aviation authorities wouldn't normally be making specific responses about a specific event in response to a news report.

Quoting ZKOJQ (Reply 234):
The Captain's roster:

The fact that he only had one day off in the last 10 is not unusual at airlines. Taken by itself, this is not a problem.

However, these things are never in isolation. Fatigue is a tricky thing and goes beyond just reading a roster and adding up hours. Personal stress, management pressure, changes to day/night schedules, frequent roster changes and other things all contribute.

Most pilots don't just take time off because they're "a little tired". They're professional and want to do the job. If a pilot calls in saying he is unfit due to fatigue that may endanger the operation, this should be a no jeopardy event, barring any "dodgy" patterns to the events. If a pilot is afraid to call in sick due to possible professional repercussions, you start to tread on rather thin ice.

Quoting ZKOJQ (Reply 234):
Quoting barney captain (Reply 97):
Clickable link:

(remove the "s" after HTTP to allow the link to be clickable)

Why don't the moderators just make this automatic?? Its very annoying.

The forum engine hasn't been updated in donkey's years. Welcome to 2007! 

[Edited 2016-03-23 03:28:41]
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
CabSauv
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Wed Mar 23, 2016 6:08 pm

Good read: (page 15 -&gt Winkhttp://www.boeing.com/commercial/aer...ticles/2014_q3/pdf/AERO_2014q3.pdf

On this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nzc4LHF4Xls at +- 18/19 seconds in - despite the angle of the camera, aircraft banking left ? Left wing appears to hit ground first.
 
s5daw
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:26 pm

Quoting CabSauv (Reply 236):
despite the angle of the camera, aircraft banking left ? Left wing appears to hit ground first.

Looking at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9aBq8saXy2M and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nzc4LHF4Xls we have video from port and starboard side, but I just can't figure out how it's turned?

737 has two landing lights in the wings very close to fuselage and two on the bottom side of the fuselage... how come we se left right and bottom lights from both angles? What is the 4th back light on the 2nd video, is it tail? If it is, were they close to upside-down?
 
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Revelation
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:59 pm

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 182):
Hand flying is important. But we mustn't forget situational awaremness, importantly including mode awareness. Understand what the airplane is telling you. If you're not aware of what the aircraft is doing, from its attitude to what modes the automation is in, no amount of handflying prowess will save you in IMC. You can follow the flight directors all you want but those flight directors will happily lead you to your doom if you're in an inappropriate mode for the situation.

I guess the tacit assumption being made is if you are hand flying by definition you have high situational awareness, but of course that isn't always true. Fatigue and vertigo still are huge factors when hand flying. I agree that blindly flying to the FD will have the same outcome as letting the auto pilot itself fly to the FD, so indeed mode awareness is vital.
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s5daw
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Wed Mar 23, 2016 8:15 pm

If I'm reading this data correctly, they went from +1.340fmp VSI to -3.000fpm in 1.5 seconds?

That's difference of -4300fpm or -1300mpm or -22m/s, which gives -15m/s^2 or -1.5G acceleration?

00:41:55.395( 0),8962b9,47.272156,39.840202,4025,FDB981,1344,227.7,182,3575
00:41:55.665( 0),8962b9,47.272156,39.840202,4025,FDB981,-576,227.6,185,3550
00:41:55.865( 0),8962b9,47.271842,39.839665,3975,FDB981,-576,227.6,185,3500
00:41:56.135( 0),8962b9,47.271842,39.839665,3975,FDB981,-576,227.6,185,3550
00:41:56.285( 0),8962b9,47.271842,39.839665,3975,FDB981,-576,227.6,185,3550
00:41:56.395( 0),8962b9,47.271563,39.839313,3925,FDB981,-576,227.6,185,3500
00:41:56.696( 0),8962b9,47.271563,39.839313,3925,FDB981,-3072,227.4,187,3500
 
awthompson
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Thu Mar 24, 2016 12:10 am

Quoting CabSauv (Reply 236):
On this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nzc4LHF4Xls at +- 18/19 seconds in - despite the angle of the camera, aircraft banking left ? Left wing appears to hit ground first.

Quoting s5daw (Reply 237):
737 has two landing lights in the wings very close to fuselage and two on the bottom side of the fuselage... how come we se left right and bottom lights from both angles? What is the 4th back light on the 2nd video, is it tail? If it is, were they close to upside-down?

Here is an extract of my analysis much earlier in the thread:

Quoting awthompson (Reply 179):
When all of the available videos thus far are studied, I figure that the wings were not level. In the latest video linked above, probably the best one available so far, it is likely that you are looking at the top of the aircraft, not the belly. I base this on my analysis of the first video which was released that shows the event unfolding from the other side of the runway (the clip shot through trees). I believe in that one we are looking at the belly of the aircraft, so this latest one must be top down. In this latest video, the glow in the centre of the aircraft would therefore be the landing lights reflecting on the engine nacelles in my analysis.

If my analysis is correct, the flight deck crew would not have seen the airport lights in the final seconds after breaking through the cloud base as their view would have been the dark side of the field, ie. the terminal lights and likely most of the runway lights were hidden beneath them so to speak. For those who don't understand what I mean, the aircraft was diving with wings almost in a 90° left roll and the nose pointing in or around the left edge of the runway so that the flight deck window view would largely have been the grass on the opposite side to the runway from the terminal.


It therefore appears to me that the port wing (left wing from pilot's perspective) hits the ground first.
 
wjcandee
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Thu Mar 24, 2016 2:58 am

Quoting ZKOJQ (Reply 234):
Certain other aviation forums have mentioned cases when captains from the airline have initiated a diversion, but been told by the airline's Network Control Center to go back and try another approach.

This, of course, being exactly the opposite of what NOC should be doing, and I imagine one could light a real fire in the US with a complaint to the FAA about this. Dispatcher is there to ensure safety, not to make company $$ at the expense of safety.
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Thu Mar 24, 2016 3:00 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 238):
I guess the tacit assumption being made is if you are hand flying by definition you have high situational awareness, but of course that isn't always true. Fatigue and vertigo still are huge factors when hand flying. I agree that blindly flying to the FD will have the same outcome as letting the auto pilot itself fly to the FD, so indeed mode awareness is vital.

Actually when hand flying situational awareness decreases because you're using brain bandwidth for the mechanics of flight. As soon as you turn on the autopilot the world seems to "expand" significantly.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
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zeke
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Thu Mar 24, 2016 4:16 am

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 242):
Actually when hand flying situational awareness decreases because you're using brain bandwidth for the mechanics of flight. As soon as you turn on the autopilot the world seems to "expand" significantly.

Agreed, and even as PM rather than PF with the autopilot on you often have more brain space to take more in.
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Mir
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Thu Mar 24, 2016 4:40 am

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 242):
Actually when hand flying situational awareness decreases because you're using brain bandwidth for the mechanics of flight. As soon as you turn on the autopilot the world seems to "expand" significantly.

In most circumstances, yes. In some circumstances, however, turning the autopilot off will lower workload and increase capability for situational awareness.

-Mir
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aaexecplat
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Thu Mar 24, 2016 1:30 pm

Question for the drivers on this forum. IF pilotaydin is right and this is a case of situational awarerness (meaning no stall), would an Airbus with its flight envelope protection have prevented this crash? Or would the crash have been just as likely as in a 73NG?
 
s5daw
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Thu Mar 24, 2016 1:40 pm

Quoting aaexecplat (Reply 245):
IF pilotaydin is right and this is a case of situational awarerness (meaning no stall), would an Airbus with its flight envelope protection have prevented this crash?

We still don't know the cause, so how could anyone answer this?

But remember, Airbus has different laws and assuming something out of ordinary happened it could trigger alternate or direct law, with less or no protections. Like AF447...
 
aaexecplat
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Thu Mar 24, 2016 2:53 pm

@s5daw. I know we don't know for sure. That's why I said IF pilotaydin's theory is correct...
 
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 2

Fri Mar 25, 2016 7:44 am

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