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Boeing778X
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Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 4:28 am

With all this talk about the Boeing MoM, I'm neglecting to look at the potential Airbus response in detail.

What is keeping Airbus from possibly filling the 757-sized aircraft need, using a stretched A321neo?
Seeing the potential success of an aircraft this size, how quickly could it be brought to market if they decided to launch it?
What changes, if any, would need to be done to the design? Longer wings? Larger engines? Double bogey MLG? Modified empennage?

http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z160/keesje_pics/AirbusA322NEOconcept_zps13d00dcd.jpg
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JetBuddy
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 4:38 am

I like the idea of an A322, and it probably will happen at some point.

But the reason they haven't lauched it yet, is most likely because there's been no need to. The A321 is the only successor to the 757 out there, no matter how much Boeing wants to pitch their 737-900ER. The A321 is selling like hot waffles. But this might change if Boeing launches their MOM design, if it's a 737-10 Mad Max, or if it's a completely new design - Airbus will have to respond. And that response is most likely A322.

I'd expect it to be based on the A321neo. Other than the stretched fuselage, it might get a new set of wings and increased MTOW. The ground clearance should already be enough, the A321 doesn't struggle with the same drawback in regards to this as the 737-9 does. But if they do decide to go with a new set of wings, an even taller landing gear is not a big investment.
 
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77west
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 5:10 am

I like your use of the A320 4-wheel bogie (See Air India / Indian Airlines).

I think an A322 is also a good idea, if they can make the wing work, the existing A321 already had to go to double-slotted flaps.

An A322 would still not fully match the 757 performance, but would get pretty close in terms of pax count and payload.
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Aither
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 5:22 am

Did you scan a mosquito on the right side of the picture ?
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 5:31 am

Quoting Aither (Reply 3):
Did you scan a mosquito on the right side of the picture ?

I was thinking the same!

Airbus will wait for Boeing to see where the market is and the product the NSA will be, and then take action, no need now when the A321 is selling like hot cakes. Good concept btw.

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astuteman
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 7:54 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Thread starter):
What is keeping Airbus from possibly filling the 757-sized aircraft need, using a stretched A321neo?

What's keeping them is probably that the success of the A321NEO is virtually unchallenged, and the A32X currently has the longest backlog in the history of Civil Aviation.

A commitment to MOM would likely modify that position, though

Quoting Boeing778X (Thread starter):
What changes, if any, would need to be done to the design? Longer wings? Larger engines? Double bogey MLG?

I will assume a "next, next generation engine of c. 10% or more better SFC than the current GTF/Leap (which implies not before 2025), eg. RR Ultrafan

I think a new wing is a given, in order to provide the necessary fuel capacity without the extra ACT's.
Daft thing is, the 3 x ACT's carried by the A321NEO LR weigh about 600kg each, so there's 1.8t of "free" weight there for the taking.
That's probably enough to get a new, wider span CFRP wing and bigger fan engine for zero OEW gain.

I assume a wingspan similar to the 757, but on a much narrower, higher aspect ratio CFRP wing, as this plane will be a lot lighter than a 757
The question then is "folding wingtips to maintain gate clearance?"

The big question I have though is "what weight"?
Why? Because I really like the idea of not fiddling with the Main Landing Gear of the A32X, but that limits the plane to being very close to the 97t MTOW of the A321NEO LR

If I take as a basis the A321 NEO LR, then, on my assumption of zero OEW gain (cos of the removal of the ACT's), the new engine alone should give c. 4 500Nm range on 25.5t of fuel

Increasing the span from 35.8m to c. 40m (but with a similar area), with the addition of much more modern lift devices span-wise flaps etc) should improve climb fuel burn dramatically, and cruise fuel burn by 3%-4%
Overall I'm going to claim an extra 200nm from the reduced drag. That gets me an A321 with 206 seats and 4 700Nm range on 25.5t of fuel

If I'm optimistic, and claim LG "tweaks" to get the MTOW to 99t, can add around 300Nm for the extra 2t of fuel (I accept there is risk to these assumptions)
That would give me an A321 with 206 seats and 5 000nm range on 27.5t of fuel

So to the stretch. how big? I am going to assume an increase from the 44.5m of the A321 to at least the 47.3m of the 752, possibly larger.
So let's say about 48.2m, or 4 extra rows of Y to get to 230 seats

I assume c. 3t extra OEW for the stretch and 2.5t extra payload - i.e. my fuel has just reduced from 27.5t to 22t on that MTOW
That brings my range down to around 4 000Nm.

To surmise, with new engines and folding tip wing, on a 99t MTOW with essentially the same MLG I get.
A 206 seat A321 with 5 000Nm
A 230 seat A322, 1m longer than a 752, with 4 000Nm range.
But is that enough?

To get to 4 500Nm range, the fuel load needs to go up by about 3t (i.e. 102t MTOW)
But I think I've just added another 1t to the MLG, and a lot more work, because I'm now on a double bogie.
Funnily enough, that gets me to 103t MTOW, comparing very nicely to the 102.7t MTOW in the image in your OP.
So I can't be too far away  

(This also gives us a 206 seat A321 with 5 500Nm range too   

Thanks for the thread.

Rgds
 
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 11:08 am

Airbus has the opportunity to turn the 320 family into a 2nd generation platform.

They could build 322 with A350 technology wing, and throw in 2H2E systems and the cockpit layout from the A350 while they are at it, and retain the 320 type rating with only few day conversion course.

This would be expensive exercise for the 322 alone but if seen as an investment for the 320 family as a whole it is not.

Later when all the suppliers for the new components have mastered the production, Airbus would adopt the new wing and systems to the 320, or possibly stretch it by 2 rows, and this time with new AlLi fuselage. when that is done, they could redo the 321 with the new fuse, wing and systems, essentially turning the whole 320 family into next generation aircraft.
 
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 11:24 am

I imagine they haven't done this yet, as there wasn't the demand from the airlines.

The existing A321 does an awful lot of what the 757 did (outside the US hardly anyone uses 757s now), while the stretched 757-300 wasn't a success showing that long narrowbodies weren't a massive market at the time.
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 11:38 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Thread starter):
Longer wings?

The first thing I thought of when I saw the pic of the US-built A321 was that it needs longer/bigger wings:
http://www.airbus.com/typo3temp/_processed_/csm_A321-1st-Alabama_1_648c2c4e81.jpg

Quoting astuteman (Reply 5):

To surmise, with new engines and folding tip wing, on a 99t MTOW with essentially the same MLG I get.
A 206 seat A321 with 5 000Nm
A 230 seat A322, 1m longer than a 752, with 4 000Nm range.

Nice! I think such products would really shake up the aviation market.

It's almost a dead-lock certainty that such products would allow JetBlue to offer excellent service to EU from NYC and BOS.
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 12:42 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 5):

I think we could see a more conventional approach. The wing could be changed rather than new. Doing a tapered wing box insert like on the A340NG. The wingspan should be less than 52 m, fitting group D, same group as 757 and 767. I do not see the complexity of folding wing tips.
A tank volume of at least 36,000 l, wing and center, without belly tanks.
The fuselage could come in two sizes, doing the original 321 fuselage and a stretch to around 50 m.
There would need to be a strengthened MLG perhaps with 4 wheel bogies.
With a bigger wing increased MTOW would not need to indicate bigger engines. The 757 started out at about 37,000 lbf.
35,000 lbf could be sufficient.
 
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 1:19 pm

Quoting Aither (Reply 3):
Did you scan a mosquito on the right side of the picture ?

He didn't scan anything. That little fly is (was) the trademark of Keesje, a former prominent member on this and other aviation forums, now gone AWOL (or reincarnated into a different pseudo??).

He had been toying with the idea of a stretched A32x for a number of years, and also came up with these cool drawings of what it would look like.

See:
http://www.pprune.org/spectators-bal...rner/534141-b-757-replacement.html

https://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...general_aviation/read.main/5209840

https://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...eneral_aviation/read.main/1641723/

I can see why they keep popping up every now and then. Airbus will soon need something to counter a Boeing clean-sheet design aimed at that market segment. This does seem like a good fit.

The question is whether the cost of redesigning a wing would justify the planned market and market share...

Quoting 77west (Reply 2):
I like your use of the A320 4-wheel bogie (See Air India / Indian Airlines).

They couldn't do that. The Air India bogie was only designed to spread out the weight, and did not allow for increased MTOW. If they used a bogie, they'd have to design a brand new one.
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 1:28 pm

I definitely see it as a possibility. Weight is going to be the biggest challenge with an A321 stretch. Getting the wing, structure and engines to support a higher MTOW will be necessary. We've seen wings extended before like with the A340-300 to A340-500/600 and the DC9-50 to MD80. It's possible to do a relatively cost effective wing stretch, although certainly not as easy as stretching the fuselage. There will also be structural changes required to handle more weight. Landing gear will probably have to go back to double bogies like we saw on some early A320s to Indian Airlines. The structure also will have to be strengthened. Airbus will have to address fuel volume. Hopefully a wing stretch will be able to accommodate more fuel.

Some of the challenges are creating resources to build the airplane. There is no point spending Billions developing such a plane if it will be produced alongside the current A320 production lines. Airbus needs to increase the production rate even higher before its worth getting a new derivative. If they chose to make further changes such as a CFRP wing and significant modifications, then they will have to find the resources to design and manufacture the airplane. With such a huge backlog, does Airbus want to spend so much money developing a plane that only competes with an airplane that Airbus already sells? It's kind of like how a significant portion of the A330neo orders were conversions from A350s. Airbus doesn't earn a whole lot if the A322 orders are simply conversions from A321 orders. They have to find customers that would have otherwise purchased from Boeing.

Quoting francoflier (Reply 10):
That little fly is (was) the trademark of Keesje, a former prominent member on this and other aviation forums, now gone AWOL (or reincarnated into a different pseudo??).

I think Keesje is still around and there are a few current posters that may be related to him. Keesje was the one who convinced all of A.net that fan diameter is the single most important factor in fuel burn improvements. He never seemed to grasp how the A320 has a 7 inch larger fan than the 737-800 yet doesn't have better fuel burn per seat, but nonetheless I always admired his resistance and interest in thinking up new airplane design ideas. He always loved the A321 and the whole family including the concept of the NEO before it was even being discussed by Airbus.

[Edited 2016-03-24 07:17:12]
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 1:32 pm

Quoting francoflier (Reply 10):
Quoting francoflier (Reply 10):
Quoting 77west (Reply 2):I like your use of the A320 4-wheel bogie (See Air India / Indian Airlines).
They couldn't do that. The Air India bogie was only designed to spread out the weight, and did not allow for increased MTOW. If they used a bogie, they'd have to design a brand new one.


Given the longer fuselage, would the MLG kit need to be 'taller' too to avoid tail-scrape ?
 
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 1:57 pm

why is every one so fascinated by the 757 or what comes after. An A321 that can fly coast to coast is where the heart of the 757 market is. The Atlantic niche the 757 discovered later in its life was almost accidental, it is a very small part of the 757 story, flying 200 people from Atlanta to LGA, FLL, PBI, ORD, LAX or MCO is the real 757 mission. Newark to Ireland, Scotland and Amsterdam employ very few 757 but seem to get all the 757 headlines. Leave the Atlantic to an airplane whose core mission is crossing the oceans or at least the Amazon for those going to Buenos Aires to dance the Tango or to Sao Paulo for some Caspirina.
 
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 2:01 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 13):
why is every one so fascinated by the 757 or what comes after

The 757 has been a favorite of A.net since the forums originally started. There will always be discussion about a true replacement. I'm surprised that no one has mentioned restarting the production line yet or talked about Boeing shutting down the line being a bad thing.

The core of the 757 market was high capacity domestic flying in the United States. The 737-800/900 and A320/A321 effectively cover that market. There's a small long distance market. So far it is too small for anyone to really care about outside A.net, but Boeing started talking about it so A.net has reinvigorated discussions from years ago. A.net also has a fascination with talking about the A321 and 737-900ER. Neither are the best selling or highest production derivatives of their respective families, but that doesn't stop people from being fascinated with those airplanes.
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 3:20 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 13):
why is every one so fascinated by the 757 or what comes after. An A321 that can fly coast to coast is where the heart of the 757 market is

I can't help but think that there is an element of historical nationalism underlying this comment (which is not meant disrespectfully).

It may well have been true in the past that most 757's ended up on US transcons.

But I can't help thinking that 200-240 seat aircraft with 4 500Nm - 5 000nm range, whether an Airbus A322 ENEO, or a Boeing MOM, will be far more prevalent in Asia in the future than in the USA or Europe.

A lot has changed in the airliner world since the 757 was launched.

Rgds
 
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 3:24 pm

Quoting SelseyBill (Reply 12):

I don't know. It would largely depend on the performance of the new wing/flaps at low speeds.
In any case, the FBW can help. They could even sacrifice take off and landing performance a bit (i.e. higher Vspeeds).

The 779 double stretch seems to be getting away with using the same gear despite the added lenght and the already somewhat marginal tail clearance of the -300 version.
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 3:27 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 15):
But I can't help thinking that 200-240 seat aircraft with 4 500Nm - 5 000nm range, whether an Airbus A322 ENEO, or a Boeing MOM, will be far more prevalent in Asia in the future than in the USA or Europe.

A lot has changed in the airliner world since the 757 was launched.

I can only agree to that. But for now such an A32X-variant is not on the table yet, but might see the light of day in about 10 years from now. Or it will be a totally new aircraft after all.  
 
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 4:49 pm

Quoting Aither (Reply 3):
Did you scan a mosquito on the right side of the picture ?

I think its a reference to the old saying "I'd love to be a fly on the wall"
 
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 5:32 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 8):
he first thing I thought of when I saw the pic of the US-built A321 was that it needs longer/bigger wings:

Why? For aesthetic?

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 13):
why is every one so fascinated by the 757 or what comes after.

Because no one has seen an airplane that can do the short runway, hot/high, engine out, etc. performance with the range it has the way the 757 can.
 
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 5:53 pm

Quoting catiii (Reply 19):
Because no one has seen an airplane that can do the short runway, hot/high, engine out, etc. performance with the range it has the way the 757 can

Which won't happen unless another engine in the 40-45K thrust range is developed. That's why the 739ER (MAX) and A321ceo (neo (LR)) *just* cut it as a 757 replacement.
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 8:16 pm

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 20):
Which won't happen unless another engine in the 40-45K thrust range is developed.

That much thrust wouldn't be required given the A321 and 739 are both significantly lighter frames. I believe the A321 can have a higher thrust-to-weight ratio than the 757.
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 9:49 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 8):
The first thing I thought of when I saw the pic of the US-built A321 was that it needs longer/bigger wings:

   I think only when the A321 wingspan is elongated will it truly be a 757 replacement. The seat count is there, but having the short wingspan means range is sacrificed.
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 10:01 pm

Obviously it is perfectly ok for anybody to start any thread they like.But of course this one was answered perfectly on reply 1 (and 5).Yes they could but they don't need to - so they won't .End of story.Why-would you?
 
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 10:13 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 15):
But I can't help thinking that 200-240 seat aircraft with 4 500Nm - 5 000nm range, whether an Airbus A322 ENEO, or a Boeing MOM, will be far more prevalent in Asia in the future than in the USA or Europe.

A lot has changed in the airliner world since the 757 was launched.

That sounds very reasonable to me at least.
 
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 10:25 pm

New wing, new MLG double-bogey extended fuselage would be a great A322 but would also make for a perfect A321LRneo (sans extended fuselage).
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MON
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Thu Mar 24, 2016 10:52 pm

Having piloted A321s for the best part of two decades that have a MTOW up to 93T, I would not be in a rush to fly a significantly heavier weight version without significant enhancements to the wing - it's already a Cat D aircraft in 93T form.
 
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Fri Mar 25, 2016 12:25 am

Quoting catiii (Reply 19):
Because no one has seen an airplane that can do the short runway, hot/high, engine out, etc. performance with the range it has the way the 757 can.

Yes this is my understanding of the 757's reason for being too. This was because Boeing obviously found it cost effective to develop the 757 & 767 together rather than just build a "SP" version of what was to be the 767.
That was the late 70's. Would there still be a need for such niche performance requirements today to justify the development of even an existing design such as the A321 NEO?

[Edited 2016-03-24 17:26:03]

[Edited 2016-03-24 17:27:39]
 
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Fri Mar 25, 2016 12:43 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 15):
A lot has changed in the airliner world since the 757 was launched.

And a lot more since the 757 was discontinued. A single asile with a 5000Nm and 220-240 pax would be a home run in Asia, South America, US transcend en some TATL markets... but I bet Airbus will not move a finger till the A321 begins looking old, or Boeing launches a real competitor in that area.

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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Fri Mar 25, 2016 1:16 am

Any talk about an A322 is of course as much a talk about 757 replacement. I never really understood the hype around the 757. It is a very fine plane, but let's look at a few facts about the 757 and its market.

- 757 enjoyed the smallest production run of all Boeing types (when disregarding 707-020 renamed into 720).
- 757 never had a real competitor on the market.
- 757 went out of production as order backlog went to zero.
- Boeing ended 757 production without having an alternative offer with similar capabilities, never happened before or later.

The 757 was made as a 727 replacement, and hit the market as the only narrow body, true US transcon airliner. It soon got more powerful engines, later MTOW increases, then winglets, and that way got capabilities beyond US transcon, including hot & high capability.

Question is, how much market is there for this type of plane, a quite big plane, but not really big, quite far ranging, but not intercontinental.

The 757 was (is) quite popular in the US for which it was shaped. Years ago it wasn't a really rare plane elsewhere, at least not in Europe, as some charter airlines liked its capacity and range, while BA and FI also found good use for them, and the latter still does.

But today it is a rare plane in Europe, when we exclude those which were rebuilt as freighters. And BTW, would so many planes have been rebuilt as freighters if there was a demand for them as pax planes?

An efficient A322 will need more wing. That's of course doable, but what are the consequences?

There are a zillion ICAO class C airport gates in the world. 737 and 320 family planes fit exactly into those max 36m wingspan gates.

An A322 will need a 38-42m wing or so. Class D is up to 52m. What will be the impact if class D gates become a too few?

The A321 has lately sold very well, but nothing like 738 and 320 combined. Even when the 321 has little competition as the 739 is the only alternative and is in many way less attractive. So if Airbus made a 322, what other sales would it substitute? It would most certainly cannibalize 321 sales 100%.

I doubt very much that anything like an A322 is being considered. Maybe something in that category may be considered as part of total replacement of the 320 family. But that is far out in the future. Airbus has more serious things to look after, such as increasing annual 320 family production from 450 to 650 at four FAL's on three continents, and working an almost ten years order backlog.
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Fri Mar 25, 2016 1:37 am

Quoting catiii (Reply 19):
Quoting Revelation (Reply 8):
he first thing I thought of when I saw the pic of the US-built A321 was that it needs longer/bigger wings:

Why? For aesthetic?

For more range.

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 22):
I think only when the A321 wingspan is elongated will it truly be a 757 replacement. The seat count is there, but having the short wingspan means range is sacrificed.

  

Quoting MON (Reply 26):
Having piloted A321s for the best part of two decades that have a MTOW up to 93T, I would not be in a rush to fly a significantly heavier weight version without significant enhancements to the wing - it's already a Cat D aircraft in 93T form.

Very interesting!
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Fri Mar 25, 2016 1:40 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Thread starter):

What is keeping Airbus from possibly filling the 757-sized aircraft need, using a stretched A321neo?
Seeing the potential success of an aircraft this size, how quickly could it be brought to market if they decided to launch it?

It's called the A321LR. I'm terribly sorry that it isn't an *exact* 757-200 copy, but it's as close as we're going to get.
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Fri Mar 25, 2016 2:23 am

Its true that since the neo was launched the A321 seems to be the stellar seller of the family indicating airlines are sizing up their fleets.
Given the gap between the A321 and the next size aircraft A332 or A338 or 788 it would be tempting to be the only player in that gap.
However airlines can and do fill that gap with frequency. The cost of developing the A322 does not have to be massive but as stated above Airbus has 4 assembly lines and a backlog of aircraft stretching nearly 10 years there seems little to gain.
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BreninTW
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Fri Mar 25, 2016 2:42 am

Quoting francoflier (Reply 10):
They couldn't do that. The Air India bogie was only designed to spread out the weight, and did not allow for increased MTOW. If they used a bogie, they'd have to design a brand new one.

Wouldn't they have to design a new one anyway? The manufacturer of the twin-axle bogie is no longer in business if remember correctly.
 
Beatyair
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Fri Mar 25, 2016 3:11 am

The A322 is a nice idea, but this airplane and the A321 still has no range. Domestically it will work on some routes but not the over theAtlantic routes and some cross country like the 757. If they where to do this, then you would have to put some bigger wings on. Curious that all the wide body's have really large wing scans and the single rows have stubby wings.
 
Max Q
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Fri Mar 25, 2016 3:20 am

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 13):
why is every one so fascinated by the 757 or what comes after. An A321 that can fly coast to coast is where the heart of the 757 market is. The Atlantic niche the 757 discovered later in its life was almost accidental, it is a very small part of the 757 story, flying 200 people from Atlanta to LGA, FLL, PBI, ORD, LAX or MCO is the real 757 mission. Newark to Ireland, Scotland and Amsterdam employ very few 757 but seem to get all the 757 headlines. Leave the Atlantic to an airplane whose core mission is crossing the oceans or at least the Amazon for those going to Buenos Aires to dance the Tango or to Sao Paulo for some Caspirina.

You're missing a very salient point, the 757 opened up transatlantic markets that couldn't be served profitably if at all by
larger aircraft but what was not capitalized on was that was just nibbling at its potential.


Another 1000-1500 miles range and you add many other smaller destinations that would not be economic with a larger aircraft, this was the premise behind the improved 757 that Boeing proposed with additional fuel in the horizontal stabilizer, engine, aerodynamic and cockpit upgrades.


Unfortunately there was no interest that the time but if Boeing had persevered and kept the line open that capability would have attracted many existing and new customers, great shame.
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sv11
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Fri Mar 25, 2016 4:02 am

What would the market for a 757 sized plane be today with 5000 nautical miles. Looking at some potential customers:
N.America
AA,United, Delta - 50 planes each for going to Europe and S.America?
S.America
Latam - 25 planes to go to N.America?
Europe
Icelandair - 30 planes?
Charter carriers - 50 planes (Condor/Thomson etc)
Africa
Kenya/Ethiopian-50 airplanes to Europe/India
Asia
Not sure who would be interested in what routes

Cargo operators - wouldn't they rather take the 737-800bcf?

Seems like only about 300 planes needing 757 size for 5000 nautical miles. If range is not needed, airlines can get 737-9max or a321neo much cheaper.

Regards,
sv11
 
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TWA772LR
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Fri Mar 25, 2016 4:28 am

Why did Airbus only go for a re-engine instead of a total upgrade? Like what Boeing did with the 737-3/4/5 to the NG with upgraded engines, lighter materials, avionics, and wings? Had Airbus done that, they would've inflicted more damage upon the MAX and maybe even totally kill the CSeries.
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RayChuang
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Fri Mar 25, 2016 4:42 am

My guess is that we'll never see an A322. The A321neo will become the successor to the 757-200, and AA, DL and UA will eventually start buying them in large numbers to replace aging 757-200's over the next 10-12 years.
 
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Boeing778X
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Fri Mar 25, 2016 4:52 am

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 38):
The A321neo will become the successor to the 757-200, and AA, DL and UA

Well, AA already has a 100 on order. They are still keeping their Int'l 757-200s for the time being.
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JetBuddy
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Fri Mar 25, 2016 6:28 am

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 22):
  I think only when the A321 wingspan is elongated will it truly be a 757 replacement. The seat count is there, but having the short wingspan means range is sacrificed.
Quoting Beatyair (Reply 34):
The A322 is a nice idea, but this airplane and the A321 still has no range. Domestically it will work on some routes but not the over theAtlantic routes and some cross country like the 757. If they where to do this, then you would have to put some bigger wings on. Curious that all the wide body's have really large wing scans and the single rows have stubby wings.

It has no range? It has more range than the 757-200, and it's called the A321LR. It needs three ACT fuel tanks, but the range is there. Seating capacity too. Only thing that's lacking is significant cargo capacity for all that fish.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 31):
It's called the A321LR. I'm terribly sorry that it isn't an *exact* 757-200 copy, but it's as close as we're going to get.

  
 
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Dalavia
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Fri Mar 25, 2016 6:34 am

I guess if the A322 were ever to be built, the marketing folk would insist it be called the A328.
 
astuteman
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Fri Mar 25, 2016 8:21 am

Quoting sv11 (Reply 36):
Seems like only about 300 planes needing 757 size for 5000 nautical miles. If range is not needed, airlines can get 737-9max or a321neo much cheaper.

This is an analysis of what you can "see out of your window", though IMO.
You haven't even mentioned the other 3/4 of the globe, particularly Asia, where air travel is expanding exponentially and will easily overtake the USA in the next decade or so.

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 37):
Why did Airbus only go for a re-engine instead of a total upgrade?

Speed to market.
Have you spotted which next generation engine narrowbody has gone into service first?
I suspect being able to mop up such a HUGE slice of the latent demand so early has damaged planes like the C-Series more than a slightly better plane coming into service 3 years later would ever do.

And money, of course. The NEO has cost next to squat, and P+W put most of that up

Quoting Max Q (Reply 35):
Unfortunately there was no interest that the time but if Boeing had persevered and kept the line open that capability would have attracted many existing and new customers, great shame.

I agree with you that there is some really unfortunate timing here for the 757.
It matured in the USA on transcons at a time when the "regular" narrowbodys didn't have the capability.
It grew onto the TATL as it became more capable.
No other markets around the world really picked it up, mostly I guess as they weren't mature enough for that particular niche not served by "regular" narrowbodys.

And of course, at the time it was pulled, the airline industry, especially in the USA was in the midst of a big retrenchment
(Look what happened to Boeing deliveries across the board in this period)
And the "regular" narrowbodys now have no trouble with the transcons.

Today, of course, the picture looks completely different. The US industry has bounced back, and middle and Far East markets have grown, and are growing exponentially.
There would seem to be a great deal of potential routes in that c. 3 000nm - 4 000nm either currently served by widebodys, or ripe for fragmentation
Rgds
 
WIederling
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Fri Mar 25, 2016 8:39 am

Quoting deutronium (Reply 27):
This was because Boeing obviously found it cost effective to develop the 757 & 767 together rather than just build a "SP" version of what was to be the 767.

Afaik the two projects merged late. Initially the projects were separate.

757 targeted transcon and existing airfields.
767 long(er) range flight in a form factor slimmed down
enough to allow desired range with the engines of the day.
The competing product ( A310 ) retained the more versatile 222" Xsection.
( enabled to some part by a fully supercritical brand new wing.)

One reason for Boeing to go for "common cockpit" may have been the
way how A300 and A310 then A300-600 fit together for pilots.
Murphy is an optimist
 
WIederling
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Fri Mar 25, 2016 9:00 am

Quoting Max Q (Reply 35):
You're missing a very salient point, the 757 opened up transatlantic markets that couldn't be served profitably if at all by
larger aircraft but what was not capitalized on was that was just nibbling at its potential.

Isn't the 757 mostly used because some airlines have it at hand and are also shy of buying newer,larger gear?
( Using the US style fix. Low investment but higher direct cost from lack of efficiency and high frequency. )

In the process the low capacity 757 saturates large airports needlessly.

Beyond the holiday charter business are there really sparse routes around being opened/held open with 757?
Murphy is an optimist
 
mjoelnir
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Fri Mar 25, 2016 9:11 am

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 29):
- 757 enjoyed the smallest production run of all Boeing types (when disregarding 707-020 renamed into 720).

Could you show me any Boeing civil air plain model apart from some 737 having sold more than the 757-200?

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 40):
It has no range? It has more range than the 757-200, and it's called the A321LR.

It is nice that we should look always at new definition of capabilities. In any discussion regarding a wide body we talk about range and payload, range alone not doing the trick. The moment we touch the 757 range*payload goes out of the window and becomes range only.

Of course the A321 (and in a smallish way the 737-900) takes over from the 757. The 757 is an old frame and in capabilities the A321 comes nearest to it, having even quite decent short field performance.

The point of this discussion is really not the 757 here, but the question, is there a market above the A321 not reaching the current wide bodies and what can airframers do to address that hypothetical need.
 
roseflyer
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Fri Mar 25, 2016 12:36 pm

Quoting ERJ135 (Reply 32):

Its true that since the neo was launched the A321 seems to be the stellar seller of the family indicating airlines are sizing up their fleets.

Unless I am missing something and the number of undecided orders is over 50%, the current sales figures by Airbus show 1114 A321neo orders compared to 3344 A320neo orders. While some likely will be converted, the A321 is not the stellar seller in the family. The heart of the market is still the 150-180 seat segment where the A320 and 737-8 are.

The popularity of the A321 tends to be overstated on A.net. While the A321 popularity has grown, it still only represents about 30% of orders. While some forecast the market continuing to move towards larger planes, it still hasn't surpassed 1/3rd of A320 family deliveries.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
WIederling
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Fri Mar 25, 2016 1:31 pm

Quoting roseflyer (Reply 46):
The popularity of the A321 tends to be overstated on A.net.

Airbus expects to produce 50% A321 in the long run.

Quoting roseflyer (Reply 46):
it still only represents about 30% of orders.

"still only represents" and "30%" don't go well together. you could use that phrase with 10% or 5% IMHO


For every 2 A320 1 A321 is delivered.

Adopting your perspective Boeing should discontinue the -900 and -9 MAX as only a few are bought in between.
Murphy is an optimist
 
roseflyer
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RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Fri Mar 25, 2016 1:45 pm

Quoting WIederling (Reply 47):

Adopting your perspective Boeing should discontinue the -900 and -9 MAX as only a few are bought in between

I am not advocating for discontinuing anything. Just commenting on a poster saying that the A321 is the stellar seller and that airlines are sizing up their fleet when the numbers don't actually show that. The A320 remains the most popular in the family. Forecasts and projections might, but the A321 so far is not 50% of the A320 family in orders or deliveries.

Boeing no longer separates orders between the 737-7, 737-8 and 737-9. All 737MAX orders for the past two years have been recorded simply as 737MAX. Airlines can choose which model they want at a later date. The sales contracts allow airlines to choose any of the three and have prices for all three negotiated. We have no idea how many 737-9 MAX planes have been ordered since airlines don't have to decide when they order. Airbus does break apart orders for the A320 family, but I am led to believe that a significant number of A320 orders can be converted to A319 or A321s at a later date.

My point is that so far the market has not moved to favor the A321 over the A320 yet. The market for an A322 may not have adequately developed yet to make it worth the investment.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
astuteman
Posts: 7123
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Airbus A322 - An Opportunity For Airbus?

Fri Mar 25, 2016 1:53 pm

Quoting roseflyer (Reply 46):
The popularity of the A321 tends to be overstated on A.net. While the A321 popularity has grown, it still only represents about 30% of orders

It's a fair point. The A320/738 is still the heart of the narrowbody market.
I suspect the A321 gets focussed on because
a) it is where there is a key difference in the success of the competing products from the 2 OEM's and
b) that seems to be relevant because it appears to be a growing portion of the narrowbody market

Quoting roseflyer (Reply 48):
My point is that so far the market has not moved to favor the A321 over the A320 yet. The market for an A322 may not have adequately developed yet to make it worth the investment.

If the market isn't ready for an A322, then it really does make one wonder why we have all the discussions about MOM.
And why Boeing are wasting so much bandwidth frankly.

Rgds

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