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DariusBieber
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Why Is WN Moving DSM-MDW To DSM-STL?

Sun Mar 27, 2016 7:12 pm

Wouldn't they offer more connections via MDW and thus attract more passengers?
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enilria
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RE: Why Is WN Moving DSM-MDW To DSM-STL?

Sun Mar 27, 2016 9:49 pm

This has been talked about a lot. Their answer is that 100% of STL is better than a small slice of ORD. On the connect side I think you are right. When they did this they moved GRR-STL to GRR-MDW in the same announcement with the opposite logic used.
 
CIDFlyer
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RE: Why Is WN Moving DSM-MDW To DSM-STL?

Sun Mar 27, 2016 10:02 pm

They are also moving ICT-MDW to ICT-STL on the same date. MDW does have more flights and more connections, however STL is going to top 100 flights this summer and it also provides good access to the east coast and also to the southeast. It would also be less out of the way for west coast connections as well. I know DSM had lobbied for a STL link from the get go, Monsanto has ties between the two cities. Hope it works out for them, STL is much less congested than MDW, plus with MDW they were also competing with UA/AA at ORD. DSM has long had a history with flights to STL with Ozark, TWA and AA....they were still a spoke with AA until the end of the hub there.
 
DCA-ROCguy
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RE: Why Is WN Moving DSM-MDW To DSM-STL?

Sun Mar 27, 2016 10:13 pm

MDW experts can confirm, but my understanding is that MDW is getting saturated.WN is making STL into something of a reliever. That's why ROC lost MDW, because too much of our traffic was connection. So they added a third flight to BWI and lost one of the flights. Still ticked about that. Keeping one flight to MDW in the morning, one back in the evening would keep the PDEW on one flight, and still give us better westbound connections.

Jim

[Edited 2016-03-27 15:14:10]
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stlgph
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RE: Why Is WN Moving DSM-MDW To DSM-STL?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 3:24 am

Quoting DCA-ROCguy (Reply 3):
MDW is getting saturated.WN is making STL into something of a reliever. That's why ROC lost MDW, because too much of our traffic was connection

The general discussion here is that Southwest targets O/D traffic and from Midway, that would definitely make sense if they shifted flights here and there catering mostly to connections to another connecting point, if possible. Out of LGA when browsing online I find more connections being offered via places like IND/STL etc. than from Midway, even though there is clearly a connecting flight and time available going through Midway.

They may even be able to score local traffic DSM to STL ... as silly as it sounds, and having lived in DSM, so i can attest to this, the thought of driving to Chicago was "SURE, NO PROBLEM!" whereas the thought of driving to STL (which can sometimes clock in less driving time) was met with "YOU CRAZY?"

The shifting of Wichita can also support this change and depending on when the flights are timed, they may be offering available connections to flights where the folks are traveling to most.

Of course the moving of flights from Grand Rapids goes against this logic but then again as mentioned it could come down to offering better timings to the final destinations where folks are going to most.


On another note - nice to see Southwest sticking with DSM. Surprised they haven't added say Phoenix or Denver.
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DCA-ROCguy
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RE: Why Is WN Moving DSM-MDW To DSM-STL?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 4:47 am

Quoting stlgph (Reply 4):
On another note - nice to see Southwest sticking with DSM. Surprised they haven't added say Phoenix or Denver.

Don't be too surprised if it happens. Isn't PHX the other of ICT's replacement markets from the loss of DAL and MDW?

Jim
Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
Cubsrule
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RE: Why Is WN Moving DSM-MDW To DSM-STL?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 12:31 pm

Quoting stlgph (Reply 4):
Of course the moving of flights from Grand Rapids goes against this logic but then again as mentioned it could come down to offering better timings to the final destinations where folks are going to most.

The drive from Grand Rapids (and Michigan in general) to Chicago is unpleasant both because of traffic in Indiana and because of the potential for foul weather, especially in the winter. Des Moines is further and the drive is boring, but I'd much rather drive from Chicago to Des Moines than from Chicago to Grand Rapids.
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joeljack
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RE: Why Is WN Moving DSM-MDW To DSM-STL?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 3:14 pm

Can anybody find the thread that stated the O/D numbers from all the hubs? I've looked for 15 minutes and can't find it. It was only done like 2-3 months ago.

Anyway, it stated the O/D percentage on DSM-MDW was only 10%, by far the lowest out of all the MDW destinations.

If everybody is connecting:
A: that doesn't make money for WN
B: MDW is full and those slots can be used on more profitable routes.
C: connect those passengers through a less valuable airport that isn't full, like STL.
D: the DSM airport was pushing for STL and claimed there are strong business ties and many O/D opportunities between STL and DSM
E: No current nonstop service on the route.

Personally, I'll be anxious to see if they can get at least 25% to 30% O/D to STL (the min in my mind to continue service). WN publicly stated about 5 years ago they like 40% O/D on a route ideally.

If MDW didn't work and if STL doesn't work, there are no other cities in the WN system east of DSM that would work.

I just don't see WN in DSM being a western only destination.....DEN, PHX, LAS only market (all of which I think would work from DSM). The only other city besides DEN PHX and LAS that might work is DAL but that is gate restricted and I don't know if I see WN using a valuable DAL slot on DSM.
 
Lexy
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RE: Why Is WN Moving DSM-MDW To DSM-STL?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 5:11 pm

I see quite a bit of DSM traffic leaving BNA daily.
Nashville, Tennessee KBNA
 
jbmitt
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RE: Why Is WN Moving DSM-MDW To DSM-STL?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 6:09 pm

The PHX market from DSM is big with Allegiant flying 3x week and American going to 3x daily with mainline. I suspect that WN is a little late to the party at PHX and at DEN (with UA and F9 flying). Both would seem like logical additions, especially with DEN rumored to have more gates coming.

I'd like to see them add a couple of more flights in DSM to give travelers enough options and better times to consider switching from the legacies.
 
DariusBieber
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RE: Why Is WN Moving DSM-MDW To DSM-STL?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 7:19 pm

Quoting joeljack (Reply 7):
The only other city besides DEN PHX and LAS that might work is DAL but that is gate restricted and I don't know if I see WN using a valuable DAL slot on DSM.

What about Hobby?
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Cubsrule
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RE: Why Is WN Moving DSM-MDW To DSM-STL?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 12:01 am

Quoting joeljack (Reply 7):
Can anybody find the thread that stated the O/D numbers from all the hubs? I've looked for 15 minutes and can't find it. It was only done like 2-3 months ago.

Are you thinking of my post on O&D share in similar length markets ex-MDW? I'l dig it out if so.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
joeljack
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RE: Why Is WN Moving DSM-MDW To DSM-STL?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 12:22 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 11):
Quoting joeljack (Reply 7):
Can anybody find the thread that stated the O/D numbers from all the hubs? I've looked for 15 minutes and can't find it. It was only done like 2-3 months ago.

Are you thinking of my post on O&D share in similar length markets ex-MDW? I'l dig it out if so.

Maybe. The thread I'm referring to listed Southwest O/D numbers by city pair for major WN markets such as MDW, STL, LAX etc etc.
 
stlgph
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RE: Why Is WN Moving DSM-MDW To DSM-STL?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 1:53 am

Quoting joeljack (Reply 7):
If MDW didn't work and if STL doesn't work, there are no other cities in the WN system east of DSM that would work.

I just don't see WN in DSM being a western only destination.....DEN, PHX, LAS only market (all of which I think would work from DSM). The only other city besides DEN PHX and LAS that might work is DAL but that is gate restricted and I don't know if I see WN using a valuable DAL slot on DSM.

Agree with much here, except perhaps Nashville could work? Or even ... Milwaukee?
Although I wouldn't go so far as to say that Midway doesn't work for them, otherwise DSM would have been cut out a long time ago.
The move to STL makes sense as a better allocation of resources, give the space to growing markets out of Chicago for better financial performance returns. Plus it's fun for those STL loyalists to think of STL as a growing hub point again, even if it isn't out of Concourse C.
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dbo861
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RE: Why Is WN Moving DSM-MDW To DSM-STL?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 3:47 am

Quoting jbmitt (Reply 9):

The PHX market from DSM is big with Allegiant flying 3x week and American going to 3x daily with mainline. I suspect that WN is a little late to the party at PHX and at DEN (with UA and F9 flying). Both would seem like logical additions, especially with DEN rumored to have more gates coming.

I could still see them adding either of these two cities. Allegiant is only 2x per week for most of the year on DSM-AZA, and AA goes between 3x mainline and 2x 319 and 1x CR9. It even drops to a CRJ on one of the 3 flights later this year. I think Southwest could easily squeeze in here and steal some O&D traffic away from Allegiant and AA, and maybe even kick Allegiant off the route. Phoenix is a very popular destination from DSM in the fall-spring time frame.

As for DEN, maybe when/if Frontier drops the route, or maybe even in the fall when Frontier goes back to 3x weekly. I could also see Southwest add a second daily LAS flight. From everything I've read, this route has been doing well and they're only competing with Allegiant's 3-4x weekly flight.

Either way, Southwest's schedule out of DSM sucks if you're connecting beyond the hub. Whenever I'm booking tickets back home, I always check Southwest first, and will gladly pay a little more if the schedule works for me. But on my return flight I normally have to go with another airline because Southwest's schedule doesn't work for me. If they were able to add even one more well timed flight with more connecting opportunities they'd be able to get a lot more passengers away from UA/AA/DL.
 
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knope2001
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RE: Why Is WN Moving DSM-MDW To DSM-STL?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 8:30 pm

Although I’m not totally convinced that the switch to St Louis will be a winner, when I look closer it does make some sense.

1. DSM-MDW has minimal local traffic, so you’re not losing much there
Southwest Q3 2015 had averaged 20.5 DSM enplanements to Chicago, about 15% of the DSM-CHI market. That’s about 10 locals per flight. Southwest’s local enplanements DSM-STL might well rival or surpass that low number.

2. DSM-XXX connections being lost over Midway are minimal
Only one of Des Moines top 30 markets will be lost – Charlotte. And that’s a market AA flies nonstop and WN averages around 2 enplanements per day.

4. St Louis is better for Texas connections
St Louis has better connections to Texas – Dallas is the #8 market out of Des Moines and Southwest only has a 4.9% market share.

With Midway packed to the gills and not much success getting O+D between Des Moines and Chicago, there’s some sense to the move.
 
stlgph
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RE: Why Is WN Moving DSM-MDW To DSM-STL?

Wed Mar 30, 2016 12:45 am

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 15):
2. DSM-XXX connections being lost over Midway are minimal
Only one of Des Moines top 30 markets will be lost – Charlotte. And that’s a market AA flies nonstop and WN averages around 2 enplanements per day.

given the flight times DSM/STL and the amount of connections available during those times, within a reasonable amount of time, there's a bit more than just Charlotte

[quote=knope2001,reply=15]4. St Louis is better for Texas connections

agreed
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knope2001
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RE: Why Is WN Moving DSM-MDW To DSM-STL?

Thu Mar 31, 2016 2:51 am

Quoting stlgph (Reply 16):
given the flight times DSM/STL and the amount of connections available during those times, within a reasonable amount of time, there's a bit more than just Charlotte

Actually almost everything Des Moines is losing with the end of Midway service isn't in the top 30 DSM markets:

atlanta
baltimore
boston
charlotte
chicago
columbus
dallas
denver
detroit
fort lauderdale
houston
las vegas
los angeles
nashville
new orleans
new york
newark
orlando
philadelphia
phoeinx
portland
raleigh
sacramento
salt lake
san antonio
san diego
san francisco
seattle
tampa
Washington

And given the fact that STL is banked (while Midway is somewhat less banked) Des Moines connection times at STL are most about as good or better than at Midway, especially to the markets to the east:

I checked the average connection times DSM-MDW-XXX for tomorrow versus DSM-STL-XXX this fall and they compare pretty well:

via MDW …. via STL
1:10 ………. 0:48 …… atlanta
1:50 ………. 1:00 …… baltimore
1:45 ………. 0:48 …… boston
2:15 ………. 1:15 …… columbus
3:20 ………. 0:48 …… detroit
2:40 ………. 1:35 …… nashville
0:55 ………. 0:45 …… new orleans
1:10 ………. 1:05 …… new york
2:45 ………. 1:08 …… newark
1:20 ………. 0:45 …… philadelphia
2:00 ………. 0:45 …… raleigh
0:55 ………. 1:28 …… Washington

Undoubtedly Des Moines loses something by not having connections anymore to Buffalo, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, etc. But they really aren't very meaty compared to the large and medium markets at DSM which are served as well or better out of STL.

Perhaps one could argue that if DSM-MDW didn't make it there's no reason to think DSM-STL will do any better -- not sure I could disagree with that. But STL really isn't so bad an alternative for Des Moines.
 
IPFreely
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RE: Why Is WN Moving DSM-MDW To DSM-STL?

Thu Mar 31, 2016 3:07 am

Quoting stlgph (Reply 4):

On another note - nice to see Southwest sticking with DSM. Surprised they haven't added say Phoenix or Denver.

Sticking? The 2-a-day frequency was never enough to capture business traffic regardless if it was to/from Chicago or a connection. Especially with one of the flights being very late at night. The move to STL is the beginning of the end. WN will be out of the DSM market by the end of 2016.
 
dbo861
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RE: Why Is WN Moving DSM-MDW To DSM-STL?

Thu Mar 31, 2016 4:00 am

Quoting IPFreely (Reply 18):
Sticking? The 2-a-day frequency was never enough to capture business traffic regardless if it was to/from Chicago or a connection. Especially with one of the flights being very late at night. The move to STL is the beginning of the end. WN will be out of the DSM market by the end of 2016.

Bold prediction with nothing to back it up. WN has flown DSM-MDW for almost 4 years now with essentially the same schedule STL will have. I don't think anyone argues with you that their schedule could be much better out of DSM. But every time DSM comes up in a WN thread, all you write are negative posts pretty much saying DSM is on the verge of losing WN, with no data or sources to back up your doom and gloom predictions.

WN has had essentially the same flight schedule in DSM for the last 3 years and their passenger numbers have consistently been growing since then. Here are the monthly passenger increases for the past 7 months over the same month from the previous year:

Feb 2016: 7.1% increase
Jan 2016: 5.7% increase
Dec 2015: 1.4% increase
Nov 2015: 11.7% increase
Oct 2015: 17.4% increase
Sep 2015 17.0% increase
Aug 2015: 6.8% increase
source: http://www.dsmairport.com/about-the-airport/statistics.aspx

July 2015 was the first month I came to with a slight decrease in passenger numbers over the previous July. Des Moinesians are flying Southwest, and they're growing each month. If Southwest added flights, I'm sure Des Moinesians will keep filling those planes too. And while full planes don't necessarily equal profits..we get that..show me data that says they aren't making money in DSM before you argue otherwise. I find it hard to believe an airline as successful as Southwest can't make money on a full airplane..and if they weren't making money, they wouldn't have stayed in Des Moines this long.

The day WN drops DSM, if that ever happens, you can say "I told you so." Until then, unless you have some sources to back up your negative predictions, just drop it.

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