N415XJ
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 3:42 am

Quoting yowza (Reply 96):
There are always shadows to exploit.

Of course, you're right. I shouldn't have said 'never', because Murphy and his law will never die. Still, I'd imagine that the government keeps a close eye on the prostitutes. They help keep lonely expats and visiting Russian partiers happy, so they can't really do away with them without causing a fuss and bringing light to such an embarrassing problem, but they are all potential cracks in the fortress. My point was that the Emiratis have free reign in their country and are essentially unbound by a constitution or a democratic system, so they can and will do everything in their (near absolute) power to make sure they keep their good thing going. For all the well-deserved criticism they receive, Dubai and al-Maktoum seem to be one of the last bastions of relative sanity in the region and play an important political role. A terrorist attack in Dubai and the resulting economic downturn would give the Saudis an excuse to steamroll them and just push us further towards a massive confrontation between Saudi and Iran.
 
Slcpilot
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 5:21 am

To be honest, I have wondered if the series of tall building fires have been just accidents. Maybe they have been. If they have not been, the PR machine is doing a great job!

http://time.com/4274592/united-arab-emirates-fire-residential-tower/

If the Burj Khalifa caught fire, and it wasn't accidental, it would certainly amplify attention on the area, and not in a good way. EK has certainly broken the airline mold in many ways, but it too may be fragile in some ways that other carriers are not.

SLCPilot
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n729pa
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 7:54 am

Given EK's size, any events in one area, ie Europe, isn't going to stop them operating other major and profitable routes even if the sales to/from Europe decline slightly. Where however EK would suffer, and a number of posts have mentioned this already, would be if there was some flare up of the local political situation in the UAE in particular. OK so the UAE might be stable now, but they probably would have said the same about Iran in 1971. We saw an Arab Spring a few years ago, and what would happen if we saw a wave of decent and uprising spread through Qatar, Oman, UAE, Bahrain (again), Kuwait and who knows even Saudi Arabia, then I'm sure this would deter most travellers from using DXB (plus AUH and DOH) as transit points. That certainly be felt very strongly by the ME3, especially if the high end of the market avoid these areas.

There will come a point where they reach the top of their mountain, like any big industry leader does. You only have to look at the car industry for a comparison. GM/Ford/Toyota might dominate world sales, but people will still buy BMWs, Honda, Mercedes Benz etc.

I remember EK when they had a daily flight to LGW with a pair of A310-300 and a 727 they flew to KHI (I think it was) in the late 80s. No one would have thought they would have turned out like they have, so who is to say what will happen in another 25 years.
 
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jambrain
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 8:29 am

Quoting thekorean (Reply 80):
ISIS infiltrating UAE. There really isn't any other remotely realistic scenario.

I'm surprised no-one has mentioned the risk of a global pandemic that could take down the whole global airline industry.

If you were to ask what could endanger EK but leave the rest of the industry alive then I'm struggling.
Jambrain
 
lancelot07
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 8:47 am

Quoting jambrain (Reply 103):
If you were to ask what could endanger EK but leave the rest of the industry alive then I'm struggling.

Terrorism and political turmoil.
While security in DXB may be strict, EK flies to a lot of questionable places.
 
UALWN
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 8:53 am

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 99):
In fact they flew for decades after being involved in the worst accident in aviation history. Tenerife.

So did KLM, which was the airline to blame for that accident, and which is still alive and (rightfully) admired by many. EK would easily survive one (one) major crash, just as KL, AF, AA, TK and countless others have done.
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haynflyer
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 9:15 am

While maybe not bringing down the airline for good, any immediate action that results in the closure of DXB, like what is happening with the closure of BRU, will cripple EKs operations because it is so DXB-centric and there is no alternative in the region.

If the terminal building and control tower were brought down or rendered unsafe either by explosive or "dirty" bomb, I think that would have an apocalyptic effect on EK.

While I certainly hope this does not happen, I'm itaken aback by the necessity to have to close an airport because of a couple of well placed bombs. What if this had happened at a larger airport or with more bombs?
"Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man's character, give him power." - Abraham Lincoln
 
Planesmart
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 10:37 am

People and politics.
Global move from free to restricted trade. Sudden death of country leaders and/or EK CEO, though Sir Tim's replacement is already contracted.
 
airbazar
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 12:34 pm

Quoting UALWN (Reply 67):
No, because most EK costumers only transit DXB, so that terrorism in Dubai itself would have little impact, I think.

Wrong. 50% of EK's traffic is O&D.
It's QR that is mostly connecting traffic.

Quoting osloflyer (Reply 70):
No one is going to Dubai, it's strictly a transitional airport.

Wrong! 60% of DXB's traffic is O&D.

Quoting osloflyer (Reply 70):
Newer long range aircraft designed for slimmer markets (787)
will render it meaningless to fly 3-4 hours extra and connect 2 hours+ extra to get from A to B.

Then why are people doing it today? You can fly non-stop between Europe and Asia, or between Europe and Africa without a detour via DXB. I'll tell you why? Those markets are huge and European carriers are restricted by their own governments on airport expansion and have curfews at their airports, not to mention high operating costs. More importantly, India and Pakistan aren't going to have a robust international airline any time soon. And U.S. carriers aren't about to start expanding into South/Central Asia any time soon is ever regardless of aircraft.
 
winginit
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 12:53 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 108):
Wrong. 50% of EK's traffic is O&D.
It's QR that is mostly connecting traffic.

Source? I'm having difficulty believing that.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 108):
Wrong! 60% of DXB's traffic is O&D.

Again - source? Were you thinking you could just throw out stats without the data behind them or a quote of some sort?
 
UALWN
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 12:59 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 108):
50% of EK's traffic is O&D.

Based on my (limited) experience with EK and DXB, I find this hard to believe. May I respectfully ask where did you get that number from? Thanks.
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osloflyer
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 2:57 pm

Hello again. So it seems like my comment that Dubai is strictly a connection/transitional airport struck a nerve with some of you. The other two ME3 carriers hubs Doha and Abu Dhabi operate with the exact same strategy, namely to be a stopover during long haul travel. I believe these stops will become obsolete and uneconomical in the future, just like fuel stops in Goose Bay, Gander and Anchorage did with longer range aircraft. To compare connections out of say Atlanta, where you do an hour RJ jump to somewhere, with a Dubai-Sydney connection doesn't make sense to me. A 300 passenger 21 hour aircraft would really hurt their business model.
 
LAXtoATL
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 4:05 pm

Quoting osloflyer (Reply 111):
A 300 passenger 21 hour aircraft would really hurt their business model.

Why would it? I don't think you are fully grasping EK's business model.
EK creates the demand for those 300 passengers departing DXB to XXX. They funnel connections from dozens of airports around the world. Airport ABC probably is only contributing 20 of those passengers heading to XXX. So if World Air had a 300 passenger aircraft that could fly 21 hours from ABC to XXX, it would be pointless as they don't have the demand to fill a 300 seat aircraft.

The reality today is that almost any route can be flown nonstop with today's technology. The problem is demand for P2P flying is limited to a small percentage of routes. Hub and spoke model will continue to be the most economical method of moving passengers around the world for decades to come.
 
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persiangulf93
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 4:09 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 27):
Arabian Gulf

It's called the Persian Gulf, such thing as the Arabian Gulf doesn't exist.

Quoting n729pa (Reply 102):
they probably would have said the same about Iran in 1971

Iran was certainly very stable in 1971! I think you meant the revolution of 1979.
IranAir was the worlds fastest growing airline in the 70's and the safest after Qantas as they had more flying hours.

With the huge amounts of orders IranAir did with Airbus, ATR and soon with Boeing, we'll see a massive change in the ME3.
Currently Tehran is expanding its airport to 90 million passengers a year with the help of the French "ADPI" and Airbus, which will be finished by 2022-2025. IranAir might not be able to be as big as Emirates realistically, but it will have an impact on them!
 
lancelot07
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 4:21 pm

Quoting PersianGulf93 (Reply 113):
It's called the Persian Gulf, such thing as the Arabian Gulf doesn't exist.

I believe the part of the Indian ocean west of India (and south of the Arabian peninsula) is called Arabian Gulf (or Arabian Sea), in contrast to the Gulf of Bengal east of India.
But the Persian Gulf is the Persian Gulf, no question about that.
 
golfradio
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 5:05 pm

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 114):
west of India (and south of the Arabian peninsula) is called Arabian Gulf (or Arabian Sea), in contrast to the Gulf of Bengal east of India.

Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal
CSeries forever. Bring back the old site.
 
n729pa
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 5:21 pm

Quoting PersianGulf93 (Reply 113):
Iran was certainly very stable in 1971! I think you meant the revolution of 1979.

I picked Iran in 1971 as an example of how a country could be seen to be stable, and how no one then could have foreseen the vast changes that affected them in less then 10 years. It will be interesting to see how Iran Air in 10-15 years time has impacted on the ME3. The difference Iran has of course is the population and scope for business and tourism too. It won't happen overnight but given time who knows.
 
SCQ83
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 5:30 pm

I think the most plausible scenario are bilateral restrictions. EK already today does not have much upward growth in places like Germany or France. A bottleneck. So their strategy is now clearly riskier routes (Panamá, etc)

Another scenario is terrorism. From this weekend: http://www.thenational.ae/uae/courts...omb-uae-malls-given-life-in-prison

OK terrorism would be something to see in the UAE. For instance, Turkey has suffered some major terrorist attacks recently (even some clearly targeted to tourists) and Turkish Airlines keeps growing. What would happen in the UAE?

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 114):
I believe the part of the Indian ocean west of India (and south of the Arabian peninsula) is called Arabian Gulf (or Arabian Sea), in contrast to the Gulf of Bengal east of India.
But the Persian Gulf is the Persian Gulf, no question about that.

Umm that is a real question. GCC countries name the Persian Gulf the Arabian Gulf. Notably Saudi Arabia that does not have good relations with Iran  
 
bmacleod
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 5:32 pm

An Arab spring in the UAE?

Likely the most plausible scenario.....

Look at Beirut in 1973

http://souar.com/data/media/17/Hotels_Area_-_Beirut_1973_2.jpg

then in 1985...

http://arabimages.net/watermark.php?i=1800

UAE could be a powder keg....
"What good are wings without the courage to fly?" - Atticus
 
D L X
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 5:36 pm

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 15):

When has one accident ever taken down an airline???

The name I didn't hear was Valujet. One accident led to a chain of events that eventually led to a somewhat forced merger, and cease of brand.
Would you say they weren't financially healthy at the time? But they immediately developed a reputation, one that had been simmering bubbled to the surface.

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 15):
What makes you think a major incident with a 380 would cause so much more reputational as damage?

Because it would be an A380, because they haven't developed the trust that others have yet, etc.

Consider US versus AA. US suffered 5 crashes in the span of only a few years, and developed a reputation. They survived, ultimately, but it was a long road back. Arguably, the 5 crashes prevented them from growing at the rate of their peers, permanently locking them into a somewhat subordinate position in the market.

AA was the reverse. They also suffered a series of crashes, but their exceptionally strong reputation (and the ability to levy blame on outside influences in some cases) kept them aloft.

Quoting UALWN (Reply 105):
EK would easily survive one (one) major crash, just as KL, AF, AA, TK and countless others have done.

Do you think the public puts EK on the same level as those airlines you just listed? I'm not sure they have the same reputation. An accident affecting EK could very well have a much greater effect on them than those other airlines.

This is not to say that EK would _automatically_ be killed off if it suffers an accident. The OP's question is more of the variety of what would it take. That's probably what it would take, if it were to happen.
 
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pvjin
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 5:38 pm

I think EK's demise will be geopolitical instability of the Middle East, or if nothing else then climate change killing most of the customer base.
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
catiii
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 5:40 pm

Simple: Ego, Arrogance, and Hubris. The same three reasons any great organization falls...
 
bmacleod
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 5:44 pm

If Dubai collapses like Beirut in 1975, the property damages could soar over $500 Billion.

http://apocalypseart.wordpress.com/2.../06/19/dubai-abandoned-circa-2017/

[Edited 2016-03-29 10:45:08]
"What good are wings without the courage to fly?" - Atticus
 
airbazar
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 7:36 pm

Quoting winginit (Reply 109):
Source? I'm having difficulty believing that.

Those are numbers that I've seen here on a.net time and time again unfortunately no amount of googling can find the O&D numbers for either EK or DXB. Not even in EK's or DXB's annual reports. So we'll have to guesstimate.

In 2015 DXB handled nearly 80 million passengers. Of those EK carried about 50 million. There are 100+ airlines operating at DXB all of which all except QF, have a very high percentage of O&D traffic.
If only 30% of EK's traffic is O&D and on average 75% of every other airline is O&D, you're pretty close to 50/50 for DXB. Now, like I said I think EK carriers more than 30% O&D which would put DXB O&D higher than 50%. Factor in DWC which is just about all O&D and Dubai as a destination would definitely see more O&D traffic than connecting traffic.
 
747megatop
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 7:50 pm

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 95):
As was mentioned upthread, Dubai as a whole is around 50% O&D and 150 airlines fly there. The vast majority of those airlines aren't flying to DXB to feed connections.

Right; but the key thing here is the 50% O&D for Dubai among 150 airlines. The thread is downfall of EK. In that context; if the faster efficient point-to-point aircraft overfly DXB ferrying passengers in large numbers you would be left with 150 airlines fighting for that remaining 50% O&D traffic. Something's got to give...either those 149 airlines OR the 1 remaining EK with all their whalejets....in which case my bet is that EK would flood the international market with low cost tickets with free stopovers and free accomodations to survive (or of course they can choose to fly half empty A380s) OR they would have to scale down drastically from the current long haul fleet that they have AND the remaining 149 airlines will also scale down drastically.

Compare that scenario to LHR for example - BIG BIG BIG business destination + BIG BIG BIG tourist destination + BIG BIG BIG transfer destination. Pull out the transfer traffic; it still will not matter that much because the rest of the traffic continues to grow; so point being DXB is more dependent on connection traffic than let's say LHR (or SIN/JFK) for that matter.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 95):
but the percentage of O&D passengers will be higher than 20% on EK

Care to share the source of your facts? The CAPA article i linked does not agree with you

"On Emirates’ US services, approximately 18% of passengers have Dubai as their origin or destination, according to estimates from OAG Traffic Analyser."
Source - http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...ould-be-better-woo-ing-them-192141
 
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ER757
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 7:50 pm

Interesting topic and glad to see for once most people have kept emotion out of the discussion. Seems that most anytime "Emirates" or "A380" is in the subject line people are passionate one way or the other.

I don't believe a single accident, even involving an A380 would be a death knell. Now if there were several in a short time period, and especially if the causes turned out to be maintenance or crew training- related, that could be a much different scenario. I don't see that happening - their record has been spotless so far even as they've grown exponentially. I see their growth slowing over the coming years as market saturation comes into play.
They could be de-railed by staffing and service quality issues as a result of a diluted talent pool. I don't see long-range aircraft in and of themselves as a threat. As others have pointed out, those aircraft exist now to a certain extent, and it hasn't killed the hub and spoke system.
 
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persiangulf93
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 8:06 pm

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 117):
GCC countries name the Persian Gulf the Arabian Gulf.

The official name by the United Nations is Persian Gulf and it has been so for many centuries.
Anyone which calls it the Arabian Gulf does have a lack of education, and knowledge.

The Arabs can call it what they want, but it's not correct! It would be like me calling the Gulf of Mexico, the Gulf of the United States of America.

It's just wrong and as an Iranian, I get frustrated by it honestly.
 
chrisp390
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 9:06 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 123):

I tried to find the numbers too and could not see anything but I looked at something else. Dubai had 14.26 million visitors in 2015, so we know for certain that is O&D traffic. Then we have the Dubai population of 2.5 million, so these people and people from the surrounding emirates would have taken trips that would count as O&D. However DXB had passenger traffic of 69 million last year, so maybe I am missing something, I am not sure, but I cannot see a scenario where a majority of the passengers at DXB can be O&D when using those numbers.
 
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scbriml
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 9:28 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 86):
That number seems low. Do you have a source?

Sorry or the delay in responding. I got the number here:
http://www.statista.com/statistics/2...i-from-international-destinations/

Quoting osloflyer (Reply 111):
A 300 passenger 21 hour aircraft would really hurt their business model.

That's pretty much the 77L. It's done squat to hurt EK.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
747megatop
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 9:36 pm

Quoting chrisp390 (Reply 127):
I am not sure, but I cannot see a scenario where a majority of the passengers at DXB can be O&D when using those numbers.

Agree completely. And i gave the numbers with links to the source in my previous posts. Just 18% is O&D on the US-DXB sector. Further more

1) "a significant proportion of Emirates traffic simply uses Dubai as a transit point between two other points."
source - http://www.routesonline.com/news/29/...the-emirates-network-in-june-2015/

2) "These airports are basing traffic, and therefore seat capacity, projections largely on transfer traffic; there is still a comparatively small amount of O&D traffic at Dubai or the other two Gulf hubs. "
http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...-atlanta-as-largest-airport-126420

So, there you go; that is the "achilles heel" if you will for EK (and pretty much EY & QR) and could very well be their downfall - being overly dependent on transfer traffic.
 
MaxxFlyer
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 9:43 pm

Quoting flyingcat (Reply 8):
The UAE is similar to Saudi Arabia in that there biggest concern could be domestic terrorism.

I would agree. If the Al Saud family ever loses control of the kingdom, it might not be pretty. Given the tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the UAE sitting right in the middle, Dubai could become a much less desirable destination and connecting point.
 
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scbriml
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 10:01 pm

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 129):
So, there you go; that is the "achilles heel" if you will for EK (and pretty much EY & QR) and could very well be their downfall - being overly dependent on transfer traffic.

Except that's been their (very successful) business plan all along. Seriously, this is not news. EK is all about connecting large population centres via Dubai.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
MaxxFlyer
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 10:03 pm

Quoting N415XJ (Reply 82):
Quoting thekorean (Reply 80):
ISIS infiltrating UAE. There really isn't any other remotely realistic scenario.

This will never, ever happen. The Emiratis run a tighter ship than anyone else on the planet because they know that one bombing in a mall will send investors running for the hills.

I'm guessing people in France and Belgium felt the same way a few years ago. The problem with ISIS is they aren't an organized army. You don't know who or where they are until they do something. It is quite possible they could hit in Dubai, especially since it, compared to other ME nations, has a much looser and liberal interpretation of Islam. That likely riles many of the most conservative sects in the religion.
 
UALWN
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 10:09 pm

Quoting D L X (Reply 119):
Do you think the public puts EK on the same level as those airlines you just listed? I'm not sure they have the same reputation. An accident affecting EK could very well have a much greater effect on them than those other airlines.

I honestly think that, rightly or wrongly, many in the flying public consider EK as belonging to the upper tier of airlines, such as SQ, CX and the like. At least as reputable as AA, KL, AF, etc.

Now, if FR had one bad accident, I think it could be much more problematic for them, precisely for their reputation (deserved or not) as a cheap (in a derogatory sense) airline.
AT7/111/146/Avro/CRJ/CR9/EMB/ERJ/E75/F50/100/L15/DC9/D10/M8X/717/727/737/747/757/767/777/787/AB6/310/32X/330/340/350/380
 
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DolphinAir747
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 10:33 pm

Quoting UALWN (Reply 133):
Now, if FR had one bad accident, I think it could be much more problematic for them, precisely for their reputation (deserved or not) as a cheap (in a derogatory sense) airline.

No way, they would reduce all their fares by 1 euro and then people would go flocking back to them. Heck, they cold rename themselves Air ISIS and people would still fly them if they were cheap.
 
747megatop
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 11:14 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 131):
Except that's been their (very successful) business plan all along. Seriously, this is not news. EK is all about connecting large population centres via Dubai.

Yes, as you say it is not news. And, to give credit to the UAE govt; very successful execution of the business plan considering that EK started in the mid 80s with one or 2 planes. That successful execution combined with the following 2 key factors is why ME3 is what it is today -

1) Lack of an aircraft type that can do Australia - Europe or SIN/BKK/KUL - Europe super efficiently at a fraction of the time it takes today. When i say fraction of time...i mean 8/9 hours SYD-LHR for example vs 19+ hours.

2) Incompetence of the Indian govt to successfully come up with a long haul aviation strategy and inability of a subsidized carrier like AI to capture the market share they are handing on a platter to ME3 judging that a BIG BIG chunk of ME3's US traffic is to/from India. To an extent EU3+US3 have lost significant market share too but unlike AI; US3 have wall street to answer to. My guess is that probably 9W has to answer to share holders too.

In the 50% O&D traffic that folks keep talking about...from what i hear.. a significant portion of the folks going to Dubai are the low yield labor class people in the construction and other sectors. So, i don't see how the 50% O&D traffic of which a significant portion (50% or more of that O&D chunk) is low yield traffic can sustain 150 airlines (of which 1 airline is majorly into flying the Whale Jet) if and when the connecting traffic goes away.
 
winginit
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Wed Mar 30, 2016 12:09 am

Quoting airbazar (Reply 123):
Those are numbers that I've seen here on a.net time and time again

So I'll ask again... source?

A lot of us on here have access to various cuts of MIDT, and I can assure you that the numbers aren't even in the ballpark of 50%. So...

Quoting airbazar (Reply 108):
Wrong. 50% of EK's traffic is O&D.
Quoting airbazar (Reply 108):
Wrong! 60% of DXB's traffic is O&D.

Wrong.
 
solarflyer22
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Wed Mar 30, 2016 12:38 am

I could see a lot of things throwing EK off the rails but in my mind its all tied to the UAE in general. For now, EK is well positioned and recall this is largely a British run empire. Most of the upper management and strategy is not coming from Emiratis from what I have heard.

- I think if Iran and Turkey get their aviation going into high gear, it will be severely detrimental to EK. These are huge countries with immensely more history and activities. They are both transit point and destination par excellence. Dubai, UAE are just too small with little to do but shop.
- Instability in UAE, terrorism, conflicts, currency fluctuations could be a huge problem. It all works so long as the country is stable. If the 70% foreign population starts rioting or leaving it will all fall apart.
- If India develops a EK equivalent or if passenger volumes to/from there fall significantly, they are in trouble.

Things look good but there was a time when people thought PanAm was indestructible and look what happened to them.
 
N415XJ
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Wed Mar 30, 2016 1:56 am

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 137):
Most of the upper management and strategy is not coming from Emiratis from what I have heard.

Well, to be sure, the Emiratis hold a lot of sway in everything from EKs day-to-day to long term strategy, as Dubai and Emirates are very reliant on each other. But, you're right in that the downfall of EK will likely be a result of problems in Dubai or the UAE itself. Despite what I said above praising the Emiratis ability to protect themselves from terrorism, Dubai is a very unique economic experiment. No other 'city-state' has gone from 0-100 as fast as they have in modern times (or perhaps in history) to my knowledge, and I'm sure we'll find out in a few decades whether or not it will stick.
 
LAXtoATL
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Wed Mar 30, 2016 4:10 am

Quoting D L X (Reply 119):
The name I didn't hear was Valujet. One accident led to a chain of events that eventually led to a somewhat forced merger, and cease of brand.
Would you say they weren't financially healthy at the time? But they immediately developed a reputation, one that had been simmering bubbled to the surface.

ValueJet had an extremely poor safety reputation before the Everglades crash. That crash was the nail in the coffin. Also, ValueJet was a small regional airline not a major global carrier. Even if they had been free of safety issues before that accident it would be a lot easier for a carrier that size and limited geographic footprint to be irreparably harmed by one accident.

Quoting D L X (Reply 119):

Because it would be an A380, because they haven't developed the trust that others have yet, etc.

What??? The A380 has been flying for nearly 10 years without a single accident. What would it have to do to gain trust? 747s, 777s, 330s, 767s - have all had multiple accidents. If there is no trust in the A380 at this point when will it ever gain trust and what widebody aircraft would you argue has gained trust?

Quoting D L X (Reply 119):
Consider US versus AA. US suffered 5 crashes in the span of only a few years, and developed a reputation. They survived, ultimately, but it was a long road back. Arguably, the 5 crashes prevented them from growing at the rate of their peers, permanently locking them into a somewhat subordinate position in the market.

AA was the reverse. They also suffered a series of crashes, but their exceptionally strong reputation (and the ability to levy blame on outside influences in some cases) kept them aloft.

Not even sure what you really trying to say here. But bottom line you are making the case that no relatively healthy global carrier is going to be brought down by one accident.

Quoting D L X (Reply 119):
airlines you just listed? I'm not sure they have the same reputation. An accident affecting EK could very well have a much greater effect on them than those other airlines.
EK's reputation is just as good or better than all of those airlines you mentioned. They wouldn't be carrying more international passengers than any other airline in the world if they had a poor reputation.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 131):
Except that's been their (very successful) business plan all along. Seriously, this is not news. EK is all about connecting large population centres via Dubai.

[checkmark]

Quoting UALWN (Reply 133):
I honestly think that, rightly or wrongly, many in the flying public consider EK as belonging to the upper tier of airlines, such as SQ, CX and the like. At least as reputable as AA, KL, AF, etc.

This shouldn't even be debatable.

[Edited 2016-03-29 21:11:31]
 
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HALtheAI
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Wed Mar 30, 2016 10:44 am

Quoting airbazar (Reply 108):
Wrong! 60% of DXB's traffic is O&D.

This quote is from a Nov. 5, 2012 article:

Quote:
Connecting passengers now account for 70 percent of all traffic into and out of Dubai, Emirates reported last month.
http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-ne...s-keeps-profiting-dubais-hub-power
 
Lentini2001
Posts: 258
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Wed Mar 30, 2016 11:34 am

Quoting jetfuel (Reply 12):
One accident that downs an A380 would end EK. They need to ensure safety is #1. Complacency grows with success

Yes, this is a thing that worries me at times, especially when I am on one of them.
 
bmacleod
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Wed Mar 30, 2016 1:10 pm

Any idea of financial impact of an Arab spring in UAE? Would it be just as bad as Syria or milder?

Boeing's and Airbus's hit would be significant - huge job losses...

Getting goosebumps just thinking about it...

[Edited 2016-03-30 06:14:27]
"What good are wings without the courage to fly?" - Atticus
 
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scbriml
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Wed Mar 30, 2016 1:43 pm

Quoting bmacleod (Reply 142):
Boeing's and Airbus's hit would be significant - huge job losses...

While EK has a lot of planes on order, they really only represents a small part of either OEM's backlog. I certainly wouldn't see "huge job losses" even if EK cancelled all their orders 'today'.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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airbazar
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Wed Mar 30, 2016 1:45 pm

Quoting chrisp390 (Reply 127):
I am not sure, but I cannot see a scenario where a majority of the passengers at DXB can be O&D when using those numbers.

There are a lot of people flying in and out of DXB for business just for the day just like you have in the U.S. between LAX-SFO or BOS-LGA-DCA. QR alone has 15 daily departures to DOH from DXB on aircraft as large as the 77W. That is almost all O&D at the Dubai end. There are 15 daily departures to JED, on 5 different airlines including 3x A380. That is a huge O&D market as well.

Quoting winginit (Reply 136):
A lot of us on here have access to various cuts of MIDT, and I can assure you that the numbers aren't even in the ballpark of 50%. So...

I respectfully disagree. As posted 2 posts above:
http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-ne...s-keeps-profiting-dubais-hub-power
That was in 2012 for EK only.

So EK alone is 30% O&D. I think it's more today but I was way off on that nevertheless, so I'll grant you that.
But if all other airlines average 75% O&D you are going to get about 50/50 for Dubai.

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 135):
if and when the connecting traffic goes away.

The connecting traffic is never going to go away. The Hub&Spoke is an integral part of the airline business.
I used to stop in Dubai for refueling on SQ's 747-300's back in the 80's. I have boxes of cheap music cassette tapes in my basement that I bought at the duty free there to prove it   Then Boeing launched the 744 and everyone was saying that was the end of Dubai. Connecting traffic is not going away.

Ask yourself this: Where are SIN and SQ today. Both have never been larger and are still growing. Didn't we hear the same thing when the ME3 started expanding? Has it affected SQ? Yes it has. Are they still growing? Yes they are.
 
BlueShamu330s
Posts: 2584
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Wed Mar 30, 2016 2:00 pm

Quoting jetfuel (Reply 12):
One accident that downs an A380 would end EK.
Quoting Lentini2001 (Reply 141):
Yes, this is a thing that worries me at times, especially when I am on one of them.

What's the difference between an A380 and a B744 or B748?

You're making a distinction that an A380 carries a greater worry, but the step change from the B744 to A380 is really not that great.

Perhaps, on that premise, we don't give enough respect to all those pioneering millions of passengers who bravely went from B707s and DC8s onto those bigger, potentially more dangerous B747s back in the '70s...    

It's really quite an irrational worry.
Flying around India
 
winginit
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Wed Mar 30, 2016 2:34 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 144):
I respectfully disagree. As posted 2 posts above:
http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-ne...s-keeps-profiting-dubais-hub-power
That was in 2012 for EK only.

So EK alone is 30% O&D. I think it's more today but I was way off on that nevertheless, so I'll grant you that.
But if all other airlines average 75% O&D you are going to get about 50/50 for Dubai.

It's less today for EK (27% per YE2015 MIDT), so way off your initial 50% claim and lower versus your 'thought' that it would have increased over the past few years.

Per the same MIDT, DXB is 33% O&D. So again... you're wrong.
 
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Revelation
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Wed Mar 30, 2016 2:41 pm

Quoting BlueShamu330s (Reply 145):
but the step change from the B744 to A380 is really not that great.

Most sources I've read put the size difference in cabin area around 40%. Why "around"? It seems to be as always there is disagreement about whether certain "monuments" count or not, and what is "usable", etc.

But IMHO the step is significant especially when you consider on many routes it's hard to sustain yield as you add seats.
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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lancelot07
Posts: 1084
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Wed Mar 30, 2016 2:47 pm

Quoting bmacleod (Reply 142):
Any idea of financial impact of an Arab spring in UAE? Would it be just as bad as Syria or milder?

Boeing's and Airbus's hit would be significant - huge job losses...

no job loss at all in this case - other airlines will fill the void.
Only in case of a global downturn of the economy jobs will be in danger.
 
747megatop
Posts: 1712
Joined: Wed May 23, 2007 8:22 am

RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Wed Mar 30, 2016 3:16 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 144):
The connecting traffic is never going to go away.

Well, never say never. It has gone away significantly or completely. Examples being Gander, STL, CVG, Cleveland. I am sure DXB is not immune to it. It may not go away completely but has the potential to go away significantly.

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