Thomaas
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 3:31 pm

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 47):

Quoting Thomaas (Reply 42):
TK is already doing extremely well and could conceivably overtake EK as the world's largest international airline

What is the definition of "The worlds largest international airline", and who defined it ?
TK has the most international destinations already, if one believes them.

Number of international passengers, for which EK still overtakes TK.
 
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TWA772LR
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 3:38 pm

Quoting Thomaas (Reply 50):
Number of international passengers, for which EK still overtakes TK.

That's kind of an oxymoron since EK literally has 0 domestic destinations.
When wasn't America great?


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frmrCapCadet
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 3:48 pm

EK has improved flying experience and availability to much of the world. The simplest challenge for EK is that some, perhaps many, airlines will learn to compete.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
LAXtoATL
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 3:55 pm

Quoting jetfuel (Reply 20):
I am not talking about an incident but a tragic accident. This has brought down the likes of TWA, PANAM and MH

One tragic accident were not the demise of TWA, Pan Am, and MH. Do some research and you will discover all three had other serious issues. Of course those accidents didn't help and one could easily argue they facilitated a quicker demise but since there are far more examples of healthy carriers still flying today that has experienced tragic accidents - it is un reasonable to argue that one tragic accident was or will ever be the downfall of an otherwise healthy and prosperous carrier.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 26):
It's tough to recall any case where an otherwise perfectly-fine airline had a single crash, then ceased to be.

Hasn't happened that I am aware. And if it has, there certainly are far more examples to the contrary.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 26):

Some could even argue that crashes like PanAm 103, TWA 800, and SR 111 were the beginning of the end for those carriers, but plenty of missteps were also made in the years between them and those carriers' demise.

Correct. I would also add that all three carriers had missteps before those accidents as well. All three had major issues before the accidents.

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 47):

TK has the most international destinations already, if one believes them.

I don't know if that is true or not, but considering they have sizable narrow body fleet and closer proximity to Europe I would believe that claim quite possible. Because of the size of Emirates aircraft they are limited in serving 'larger' cities that have the demand to fill wide-body aircraft. However, the industry measure of 'largest' airline is usually measured by either revenue, passengers carried, or revenue passenger kilometers (or miles). Remember if you add the qualifier of largest 'international' airline, you have to remove the 'domestic' component from the world's largest airlines. So you get a different answer if you are looking at an airline's total operation numbers vs its international operation numbers. To the best of my knowledge Emirates leads all three categories when looking at the international numbers only. Also, note Emirates has no domestic operation, they are entirely international.
 
Sooner787
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 4:00 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 27):
War in the Arabian Gulf for a prolonged period.

Not only would that harm the ME3 carriers , but Boeing and Airbus would
be in a world of hurt if the ME3 suddenly had to cancel a lot of orders
 
LAXtoATL
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 4:02 pm

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 51):
That's kind of an oxymoron since EK literally has 0 domestic destinations.

1) I don't think 'oxymoron' is being used correctly here.

2) It is ok to point out that EK doesn't have any domestic operations, but that fact is irrelevant to a discussion about international operations since by definition international would exclude domestic destinations anyway.
 
radone
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 4:14 pm

Technology...

Long haul supersonic flight at reasonable cost (including environmental one) would render obsolete the EK business case.

For the moment the range/speed combo of available aircraft makes their geographical position an almost absolute advantage, also considering the convenient leg flying time they offer to the passenger.

But at Mach X, UAE would become a flyover state and that means an absolute downfall, regardless any relative factor (wars, bad management, bilaterals/sanctions) that EK may succesfully contain.

Not to forget the early users of nextgen supersonics will be first and business class passengers.

[Edited 2016-03-28 09:30:14]
 
loalq
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 4:28 pm

2-3-2 business class configuration on triple 7s.
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SelseyBill
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 4:41 pm

Quoting Thomaas (Reply 42):

1. Political instability in the ME.
2. Restricted bilaterals.
3. TK and Indian carriers

I suspect one factor not mentioned to this point in this thread is the outbreak of a really nasty ultra-contagious worldwide disease, that effects not just EK, but all air travel.

We've seen over the years the catastrophic effect that epedemics like birdflu/ SARS/ Ebola/ Zika etc etc have on localised populations, but some kind of highly infectious cantageon could bring EK to its kness. Then it just becomes a case of which airlines have the deepest pockets to support a static airline, and the UAE has pretty deep pockets.
 
anwargani
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 4:46 pm

Failure of Boeing 777x project.
 
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cageyjames
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 4:54 pm

If global warming melts the glaciers and the seas rise to cover the UAE. Could happen, eventually...
 
747megatop
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 5:18 pm

Quoting chrisp390 (Thread starter):
what will be the donwfall of EK?

Changing aircraft technology that will enable super efficient Australia - Europe; India - USA; SE Asia - Europe non stops in a fraction of the time it takes today. It won't be downfall per se but there will be consolidation of ME3 and survival of the fittest (or rather, survival of the ones with the largest & endless supply of govt cash).
 
airbazar
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 5:29 pm

Quoting par13del (Reply 45):
So a question, how many terrorist incidents have their been in Europe recently, and how much do we read each day about cells and radicals being all over Europe waiting to strike, has tourism to Europe declined?

Europe and especially France will have huge negative tourism impact this year. My wife sells high end vacations to Europe and on the day after the Brussels attaches she started getting calls for cancellations. Countries that might dodge the trend are Spain, Portugal, possibly Italy, and Scandinavia. Everyone else I expect to take a big hit.

Quoting radone (Reply 56):

Long haul supersonic flight at reasonable cost (including environmental one) would render obsolete the EK business case.

  
People said that when the 744 was launched. Looked at the ME today. You don't need that kind of technology to overfly the gulf today and yet it's not happening. Two of EK's top 3 markets are U.S.-India, Europe-Asia. You can serve all of those markets with today's technology. There are other factors far more important than technology.
 
AAIL86
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 5:39 pm

Quoting shankly (Reply 36):
So far I think there have only been five airlines who changed the world:

Pan Am
Southwest
Easyjet
Ryanair
Emirates

Interesting list. I can see that there's a case for Ryanair, but Easyjet as well? Why them particularly?

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 11):
One last thought about what could curb EK 's business... if countries started rescinding or restricting their air traffic rights. Considering EK, EY, and QR have no home aviation market and TK's is relatively small - they rely on the ability to fly foreign citizens from one country to another.

Agree on EK,EY,QR, but TK actually services a fairly massive O&D component. Their traffic is somewhere in the neighborhood of 60% O&D.
The way to see by faith is to shut the eye of reason - Benjamim Franklin
 
aarbee
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 5:57 pm

Quoting bill142 (Reply 2):
Aircraft that render DXB/AUH/DOH useless.

Still, the market for secondary cities would still require to change planes ...
Love the AIXes
 
lancelot07
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 6:10 pm

Quoting aarbee (Reply 64):
Still, the market for secondary cities would still require to change planes ...

Not with smaller Ultra long range aircraft that may come along at some point in time.

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 53):
Remember if you add the qualifier of largest 'international' airline,

well yes, this is about the point - by adding meaningless qualifiers you can get any nice sounding result you want.
 
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NWAROOSTER
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 6:29 pm

The simplest answer to EK failing are two reasons. DXB is no longer needed or wanted as a transit hub. There so many reasons for that to happen, if it would happen, that there is not time or space to try and list them.
EK will continue operating until it is no longer needed or wanted just like any other airline.   
Procrastination Is The Theft Of Time.......
 
UALWN
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 6:33 pm

Quoting AYVN (Reply 43):
I think that for same reason as accidents, terrorism in Dubai in a scale that hit Paris would affect EK more than AF has been affected.

No, because most EK costumers only transit DXB, so that terrorism in Dubai itself would have little impact, I think.

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 53):
One tragic accident were not the demise of TWA, Pan Am, and MH.

Nor KLM, AA or AF.
AT7/111/146/Avro/CRJ/CR9/EMB/ERJ/E75/F50/100/L15/DC9/D10/M8X/717/727/737/747/757/767/777/787/AB6/310/32X/330/340/350/380
 
lancelot07
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 6:53 pm

Quoting UALWN (Reply 67):
Nor KLM, AA or AF.

   an accident means hard times for an airline, but customers memories are rather short so a financially sound airline will survive.
 
LAXtoATL
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 7:23 pm

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 63):
Agree on EK,EY,QR, but TK actually services a fairly massive O&D component. Their traffic is somewhere in the neighborhood of 60% O&D.

Is that 60% O&D just for international operations? Or are you including domestic totals into that? I could be wrong but I find it hard to believe that 60% (or anywhere near that) of their international traffic is O&D.

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 65):
well yes, this is about the point - by adding meaningless qualifiers you can get any nice sounding result you want.

Very true. However, the airline industry routinely discusses domestic and international (long-haul as commonly referred) operations separately. So, in this instance the qualifier is not meaningless.
 
osloflyer
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 7:33 pm

No one is going to Dubai, it's strictly a transitional airport. Dubai is not halfway between anywhere. Newer long range aircraft designed for slimmer markets (787)
will render it meaningless to fly 3-4 hours extra and connect 2 hours+ extra to get from A to B. The premium customers will figure this out first. Additionally the A380 is a terrible aircraft for poor loads versus others.
 
Viscount724
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 7:42 pm

Quoting UALWN (Reply 67):
Quoting AYVN (Reply 43):
I think that for same reason as accidents, terrorism in Dubai in a scale that hit Paris would affect EK more than AF has been affected.

No, because most EK costumers only transit DXB, so that terrorism in Dubai itself would have little impact, I think.

Terrorist bombings have been fairly frequent in Turkey in the past few months, including several in Istanbul itself, with some foreign tourists killed. I wonder whether that's had much impact on TK traffic. I expect O&D traffic has at least been affected to some extent with various governments issuing travel warnings, but some connecting passengers may also consider those events when choosing an airline.

Has there ever been a terrorist incident in Dubai or the rest of the UAE? The only related incident I can recall was the crash of a Gulf Air 737-200 from KHI on approach to AUH almost 33 years ago (September 1983) due to an onboard bomb, killing all 112 passengers and crew.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_Air_Flight_771
 
LHRFlyer
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 8:10 pm

There is actually a lot of O&D traffic to Dubai. LHR-DXB is, according to IAG, one of the biggest O&D markets in the world. Hence why BA and VS are able to sustain 3x and 1 daily flights respectively, in spite of EK & QF sending 10 A380s to DXB at day.

I don't see the fortunes of EK changing in the medium term. However, history has shown that fortunes can change for companies that once seemed unassailable.

In addition to the factors mentioned above, if ownership restrictions were relaxed such that full cross border mergers were allowed, you could see some formidable opponents to EK.

If IAG was allowed to expand to include AA, QF, LATAM etc you would have a formidable "super carrier" that combines brands with very strong local market presence and domestic/regional networks and huge economies of scale.
 
UALWN
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 8:53 pm

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 71):
some connecting passengers may also consider those events when choosing an airline.

Surely, but I'd imagine it'd have a rather small effect. Not enough to kill EK. Now, terrorist attacks at DXB itself (the airport) or on an EK flight would be a different matter.
AT7/111/146/Avro/CRJ/CR9/EMB/ERJ/E75/F50/100/L15/DC9/D10/M8X/717/727/737/747/757/767/777/787/AB6/310/32X/330/340/350/380
 
AAIL86
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 8:54 pm

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 69):
Is that 60% O&D just for international operations? Or are you including domestic totals into that? I could be wrong but I find it hard to believe that 60% (or anywhere near that) of their international traffic is O&D.

Yeah its been discussed on these very forums a bunch of times. Keep in mind Turkey is a country of 75 million people, while the UAE is 9 million total (which is split between EK & EY) and Qatar has 2.1 million. Per capita incomes are of course higher in the Emirates/Qatar, but still, that's a much bigger population pool to help put butts in seats.
The way to see by faith is to shut the eye of reason - Benjamim Franklin
 
Burkhard
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:07 pm

Emirates depends on the Sheikh of Dubais willing to invest billions of dollars into this toy. Dubai has no oil ond completly depends on money from Abu Dhabi. So a little argument between the two bloody tyranns would be more than sufficient.
 
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AirlineCritic
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:13 pm

68 posts and no one has mentioned the most obvious answer: a global economic downturn.

Lets not hope for that, however.

Protectionism, in terms of bilaterals, rights to fly to places, etc.

Lets not hope for that either. We sometimes see people on a.net wish for it, to protect their own airline. But... those own airlines are already flying a large international network. If they are planning on restricting the likes of LH or BA or AA to respective citizens of their home countries, excessive protectionism would hurt all. And if their hope is to get a good deal for their own airline and country while forcing others to suffer... good luck with that.

But, a real threat to EK might actually be inability to grow or switch to the new airport. Lets hope they have it covered.

[Edited 2016-03-28 14:16:54]
 
enzedder
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:19 pm

it surprises me over and over again how the same people who usually argue against EK come up with their 'dream scenario' as to what would or could break the neck of EK.

there is nothing that would be more a thread to EK than to any other airline.

cheers

enzedder
 
LAXtoATL
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:30 pm

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 74):

Yeah its been discussed on these very forums a bunch of times.

Not sure what you are saying yeah to.
Yeah, the reported figure is just for their international operations or
Yeah, the reported figure is for their total operation including domestic?
 
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scbriml
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:47 pm

Quoting osloflyer (Reply 70):
No one is going to Dubai

No one? Over 14 million in 2015. Far from no one.

Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 76):
68 posts and no one has mentioned the most obvious answer: a global economic downturn.

Well we had the GFC in 2007/8 and EK didn't miss a step.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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thekorean
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:50 pm

ISIS infiltrating UAE. There really isn't any other remotely realistic scenario.
 
golfradio
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 12:03 am

Here is my chain of events to take down EK

1. Indian politicians refuse to get lobbied and bribed by the sheikhs and dealers for EK. No more expansion of the ASA between India and the UAE.

2. Eliminate the 5/20 rule. Encourage 9W to join SkyTeam and Indigo to join OneWorld.

3. Fast track BOM relocation and development. Make BOM and DEL into true hubs. Remove all curfews and restrictions on slots.

4. Allow open skies between U.S., Canada, E.U., Australia and India. Visa free transit and visa on arrival for U.S., Canada, E.U and Australian citizens.

5. UA, AC, LH and AI enter into a JV for East, Far East and Oceania.

6. DL, AF/KL and 9W enter into a similar JV for SkyTeam and AA, BA and 6E for OneWorld.

7. One stop options to all destinations in India, S.E. Asia and Oceania from all points in North America, E.U and vice versa.


I think AC is already realizing that with the 789, non-stop routes to India are viable. It will take a coordinated effort between North American and European and Indian airlines to capture the market.

[Edited 2016-03-28 17:44:47]
CSeries forever. Bring back the old site.
 
N415XJ
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 12:13 am

Quoting thekorean (Reply 80):
ISIS infiltrating UAE. There really isn't any other remotely realistic scenario.

This will never, ever happen. The Emiratis run a tighter ship than anyone else on the planet because they know that one bombing in a mall will send investors running for the hills. Their country is small and they have no problems with resorting to North Korea-esque border and immigration control measures to secure their country. Expats are very closely monitored and are essentially kicked out after a few years, and everyone who enters the country (especially though land borders) is inspected very thoroughly. Besides that, ISIS is on the downswing. Their whole MO is not really sustainable in the long run and will crumble in the next 10 years due to lack of funds, morale, and infighting. Emirates (and the UAE/Dubai) will outlast ISIS by decades and should be more worried about natural disasters or ultra-efficient aircraft as mentioned above.

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 75):
Emirates depends on the Sheikh of Dubais willing to invest billions of dollars into this toy. Dubai has no oil ond completly depends on money from Abu Dhabi. So a little argument between the two bloody tyranns would be more than sufficient.

Why don't you go get data proving that EK is a money pit and personal toy for the rulers of Dubai. I'll wait.
 
airlineecon
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 12:17 am

Recession or significant slowdown in growth in developing economies. EK connects the developing world to the developed world. They have weathered recessions in developed countries and even to the real estate market in their own economy. Business travel from wealthy countries and the masses from poor countries will come to a screeching halt.
 
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DolphinAir747
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 12:42 am

Quoting osloflyer (Reply 70):
No one is going to Dubai, it's strictly a transitional airport.

Then why do many other airlines serve DXB as an O&D airport? DXB is a major business and leisure destination for people in a good portion of the developing world as well as a rising commercial hub.
 
trent1000
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 1:04 am

I would rephrase "downfall" to "wane". SQ and VA have not suffered a downfall, just reflecting various changes in the travel market to their particular circumstances over decades. EK will be around for a good while longer. I don't think it will suffer downfall.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 1:13 am

Quoting scbriml (Reply 79):
Over 14 million in 2015. Far from no one.

That number seems low. Do you have a source?

Quoting scbriml (Reply 79):
Well we had the GFC in 2007/8 and EK didn't miss a step.


EK proved how resistant a 'numbers run' business is. They differed orders and cut costs quickly minimizing the financial impact. Since EK was kept from expanding much in China, this downturn might bypass them.

Lightsaber
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sixtyseven
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 1:30 am

A hull loss.

The company, as are all, are terrified of the worlds reaction to a bad accident. Emirates is moreso

Of course all airlines are, but guys I know who fly there constantly mention this.

Of course things have changed, the company is willing to work its pilots into the ground, yet still remind them not to mess up. No rights, you have a short leash. Company image reputation huge.
Stand-by for new ATIS message......
 
747megatop
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 1:30 am

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 84):
DXB is a major business and leisure destination for people in a good portion of the developing world as well as a rising commercial hub.

Major business & leisure destination. yes. but does that sustain the huge ME3 fleets & that too a sizeable chunk of it being A 380s? NO. A massive chunk (80% to be exact) of the ME3s US flights for example is connecting traffic - http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...ould-be-better-woo-ing-them-192141
Some body who tells me that a large chunk of ME3 traffic is O&D is gotta be kidding....similar to someone claiming that DL primarily caters to O&D traffic out of ATL when every body knows that is not true inspite of the fact that Atlanta is a major business destination.
 
Viscount724
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 1:44 am

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 84):
Quoting osloflyer (Reply 70):
No one is going to Dubai, it's strictly a transitional airport.

Then why do many other airlines serve DXB as an O&D airport? DXB is a major business and leisure destination for people in a good portion of the developing world as well as a rising commercial hub.

O&D traffic at DXB is close to 50% of the total. Roughly 150 airlines serve DXB. They wouldn't all be there if they had to rely on connecting traffic. Compared to DXB's roughly 50% O&D percentage, it's about 40% at ATL and 60% at ORD.
 
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DolphinAir747
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 2:44 am

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 89):
O&D traffic at DXB is close to 50% of the total.

Might be smaller if that includes people on stopovers etc as O&D rather than connecting but still yes. Do you have figures for how much of EK's traffic is connecting, and how much of DXB's O&D pax use EK?
 
Ammad
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 2:48 am

Quoting sixtyseven (Reply 87):
A hull loss.

The company, as are all, are terrified of the worlds reaction to a bad accident. Emirates is moreso

This situation will be same for every Airline, Including Air Canada i guess.



[Edited 2016-03-28 19:49:55]
 
pa747sp
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 2:49 am

Define 'downfall". Is it a stagnation in growth or actually going out of business.

SQ grew strongly based on a business model that has since been used by others, including EK. SQ's growth potential now is far more limited, based more on GDP growth in its existing markets and gradual expansion into new markets.

EK will hit the same barrier at some point. Because of it's geographical position it has a competitive advantage over SQ, but eventually the same thing will happen. The break-neck pace of growth at EK is because they recognise this and they want to build to a critical mass of city-pair connectivity as fast as possible, to crowd out other local airlines who enjoy the same geographic advantage.
Nothing seems as good since the VC10.
 
SXDFC
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 2:59 am

The downfall of EK will be when Tim Clark pays the 25.00 (or lets face it he can afford the lifetime first class membership) and joins a-net to solicit advice on running EK.   
 
Ammad
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RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 3:03 am

For me Emirates is becoming Air line of the World. And the world still have lot of potential and many under served markets, take an example of USA, Emirates is serving 10 destinations with multiple frequency and can easily open 5 new destinations with in USA with daily flight.

Canada is pretty strict for bilateral other wise Emirates can go easily go with double daily to YYZ, daily to YVR and daily to Montreal.

Easily 8 New cities with daily flights to India can be added, that can help feed lot of traffic to European and North American Destinations.

Two cities from Pakistan can also be added with Daily frequency.

Every body is evident of Emirates Juggernaut strategy towards European Market, what ever Metal they are adding with What ever frequency is working.

South America, Australia and New Zealand still have potential for increasing Frequency and to sustain new Routes.

I would say Question to ask is "Will Emirates be able to sustain same level of reliability and service after expanding "TWICE" of what it is now", instead of Downfall thing.
 
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RyanairGuru
Posts: 7896
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 3:05 am

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 88):
A massive chunk (80% to be exact) of the ME3s US flights for example is connecting traffic

Looking at O&D vs Connection figures for ME3 isn't meaningful as Dubai is a much larger O&D market than Doha or Abu Dhabi. I'm not saying that Emirates is carrying mostly O&D traffic between the US and Dubai, but the percentage of O&D passengers will be higher than 20% on EK but most likely lower than that on QR and EY.

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 88):
Some body who tells me that a large chunk of ME3 traffic is O&D is gotta be kidding

Not a "large chunk" but a good 40%+ of Emirates traffic on a systemwide basis is O&D. I don't know the figures for QR but I wouldn't be surprised if it was less than 20%.

As was mentioned upthread, Dubai as a whole is around 50% O&D and 150 airlines fly there. The vast majority of those airlines aren't flying to DXB to feed connections.

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 90):
Might be smaller if that includes people on stopovers etc as O&D

If the stopover is more than 24 hours then yes, it will be counted as O&D. However, that doesn't mitigate the fact that people are choosing to spend time in Dubai . Sure this is anecdotal, but as a travel agent I have clients requesting a stopover for a couple of nights between Australia and Europe in the likes of Singapore, Hong Kong and - yes - Dubai, but nobody has ever asked for a stopover in Doha.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
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yowza
Posts: 4493
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 7:01 am

RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 3:17 am

Quoting N415XJ (Reply 82):
Expats are very closely monitored and are essentially kicked out after a few years, and everyone who enters the country (especially though land borders) is inspected very thoroughly.

There are always shadows to exploit. As you likely know Dubai is littered with prostitutes. These ladies aren't exactly guests of the rulers but they're not exactly being shepherded out in droves either. There is some tolerance for ambiguity... For the record I hope the UAE stays stable. The last bloody thing that region needs is more chaos.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 89):
Roughly 150 airlines serve DXB

That number still gets thrown around a lot by EK, DXB Airports PR people, and fans of Dubai Inc. When you dissect that 150 (from one of their annual reports circa 2009) it quickly thins out albeit still to a respectable number. The last time I checked that 150 number it included:
- UN humanitarian flights (no joke)
- A slew of cargo only airlines
- Several defunct airlines
- Numerous airlines that fly irregular schedules, once every other week as an example
- Any charter movements that touched DXB that year

Now that the cat is out of the bag the good folks at DXB have recanted and their current website shows a much more realistic 88 although that list still includes DL and UA both of which are on the out.

YOWza

[Edited 2016-03-28 20:19:25]
 
WearyDrover
Posts: 662
Joined: Sat Jul 18, 2015 2:12 am

RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 3:19 am

Quoting Ammad (Reply 94):
would say Question to ask is "Will Emirates be able to sustain same level of reliability and service

This has proven to be a problem in the past.

As the airline grew, cabin service became a very hit and miss affair and varied from flight to flight. This was exacerbated by the reduction in the induction period as crew needed to be pressed into service much quicker. This was most noticeable in a period roughly 2008-2010 but the airline did seek to address the issue, particularly in the wake of competition from the likes of EY.

Reliability of aircraft is another issue with a relatively high utilisation rate. I know that EK have been expanding their engineering facilities and provide services to other airlines, but they will need to ensure that they can attract, train and retain a suitable skills set.

Finally, reliability of arrivals and departures is contingent on being able to make more effective use of ground and air space. Eventually DWC should provide relief for the former but the problems with some airspace being blocked or not desirable due to political crises is a harder problem.

[Edited 2016-03-28 20:20:40]
A man may learn wisdom even from a foe - Aristophanes
 
pa747sp
Posts: 226
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2008 9:41 pm

RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 3:25 am

Quoting sixtyseven (Reply 87):
A hull loss.

SQ survived one. As did BA/KL/LH/AF/NZ and most major airlines.

It could be argued that PA didn't, but in reality they were on the way out anyway.
Nothing seems as good since the VC10.
 
LAXtoATL
Posts: 596
Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2009 3:55 am

RE: What Will Be The Downfall Of EK?

Tue Mar 29, 2016 3:41 am

Quoting pa747sp (Reply 98):
It could be argued that PA didn't, but in reality they were on the way out anyway.


I assume you are referring to The Lockerbie incident, and yes it is easily argued that PA was already on its way out due to poor management and route network.

That being said there are other accidents in PA's history including hull loss that they absolutely survived.
In fact they flew for decades after being involved in the worst accident in aviation history. Tenerife.

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