Air China Plans Shenzhen - FRA & LAX Service

LAXintl · Mon Mar 28, 2016 2:34 pm

Chinese secondary airport longhaul services continue as airlines rapidly lock in traffic rights.

Air China has applied with the CAAC to commence service from Shenzhen to both Frankfurt, and Los Angeles.

For Frankfurt the carrier says it plans 3x weekly A330 service this spring, and for LAX 3x weekly 77W starting in October.

Air China Plans Shenzhen-Frankfurt, Shenzhen-Los Angeles Services
http://www.chinaaviationdaily.com/news/51/51592.html

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The FRA application is actually the second one as last year they planned same thing but never moved to the operational phase.

a380787 · Mon Mar 28, 2016 2:55 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):

Air China has applied with the CAAC to commence service from Shenzhen to both Frankfurt, and Los Angeles.

For Frankfurt the carrier says it plans 3x weekly A330 service this spring, and for LAX 3x weekly 77W starting in October.

Given this announcement of intention for SZX-FRA/LAX, plus a recently announced enhanced partnership with UA :

United Airlines and Air China Strengthen and Extend Strategic Partnership (dated 3/23)
ir.united.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=83680&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2150456

.... this makes my previous hypothetical UA SFO-SZX all the more likely. CA focus on the O&D side (LAX) while UA handle the more connection-heavy side (SFO). They can start out small like 4x weekly summer 3x weekly winter by 787. Even if it fails, the downside monetary damage is capped.

tcaeyx · Mon Mar 28, 2016 3:10 pm

Wow. A 77W seems like a lot of lift for a 2° city, considering its proximity to HKG. Perhaps a 787 route once they come online?

In addition to Hainan's LAX-CSX and MU's LAX-NKG, now we have proposed routes by:

Sichuan connecting LAX to Chengdu via Jinan and Hangzhou
XiamenAir to Xiamen
Air China to SZX, which they just starting flying from LAX via PEK.

I wonder what's next for LAX.

G500 · Mon Mar 28, 2016 3:12 pm

I think there is ZERO doubt that what Miami is to South America, and New York is to Europe, LAX is to Asia...

I don't think SFO even comes close to matching LAX

a380787 · Mon Mar 28, 2016 3:22 pm

Quoting g500 (Reply 3):

I think there is ZERO doubt that what Miami is to South America, and New York is to Europe, LAX is to Asia...

I don't think SFO even comes close to matching LAX

"Matching" is very different depending on your perspective.

MIA is the largest US-based airline hub to LatAm, and the largest O&D city. NYC is the largest O&D to Europe, and arguably has the largest US-based airline hubs across the Atlantic (DL JFK and UA EWR, although AA PHL does a solid job too).

Asia is a very different story. By seat volume, LAX is largest. In terms of nonstop destinations reached, I think SFO is just barely behind LAX (e.g. SFO will have XIY HGH WUH SIN DEL etc unique to itself; I'm excluding TLV since that one is treated as "Atlantic" by DOT). But thanks to fragmentation, the largest US-based airline TPAC hub is UA SFO not anyone at LAX.

Once you add in AUS/NZ/Pacific Islands as a larger "TPAC" measurement, then LAX is far far ahead of anyone else.

Freshside3 · Mon Mar 28, 2016 3:29 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 1):
CA focus on the O&D side (LAX) while UA handle the more connection-heavy side (SFO).

Maybe so, in the sense of business travelers(and tourism), but SFO(and the Bay Area in general) has a large Chinese population. Lots of O&D at SFOfrom the diaspora, percentage-wise.

[Edited 2016-03-28 08:30:33]

[Edited 2016-03-28 08:31:36]

tcaeyx · Mon Mar 28, 2016 3:30 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 4):

Even by seat volume, I don't think SFO is very far behind. The Bay Area boasts a disproportionately large number of flights to the largest Asian markets when compared to LAX, considering that it is about half the size of the SoCal metro.

[Edited 2016-03-28 08:30:31]

a380787 · Mon Mar 28, 2016 3:31 pm

Quoting Freshside3 (Reply 5):

Maybe so, in the sense of business travelers, but SFO(and the Bay Area in general) has a large Chinese population. Lots of O&D at SFO.

I didn't say SFO has a small O&D, but across the Pacific, most markets are larger to LAX than SFO (with rare exceptions like HKG), so chances are, absent of concrete PDEW data, one would guess that SZX-LAX is larger than SZX-SFO.

TWA772LR · Mon Mar 28, 2016 3:42 pm

Can Air China give Cathay a run for its money on LAX?

What does this mean for a potential USA-SZX on UA?

mercure1 · Mon Mar 28, 2016 4:26 pm

Remember Air China essentially already has a base in Shenzhen as it owns 51% of ZH.

I see this more as simply having to grow somewhere outside of PEK as ever more new aircraft arrives.

PEK is near capacity with slots, so CA has been growing in other market having developed half dozen focus cities in the mean time in addition to secondary hubs in CTU and PVG.

alex0easy · Mon Mar 28, 2016 4:39 pm

They really need the B789 for these routes from secondary cities in China to overseas destinations in Europe and North America. B77W seems too big sometimes.

SFOA380 · Mon Mar 28, 2016 5:03 pm

Quoting g500 (Reply 3):
I don't think SFO even comes close to matching LAX

Although greater Los Angeles has a little over twice the population of the greater Bay Area (18 million vs 9 million) the economic output difference between the two continues to narrow. Bay Area economy is nearly as large with half the population. Total catchment area O&D is third behind only NYC & LA and ahead of Chicago and Washington despite the smaller CSA size. Translation is a propensity for travel that is nearly unmatched. While greater LA will always be a larger population center, SF has a far wealthier population and much larger corporate base from which to draw. SFO serves more destinations in Asia, LAX obviously has more seats.

SonomaFlyer · Mon Mar 28, 2016 5:08 pm

Quoting alex0easy (Reply 10):
They really need the B789 for these routes from secondary cities in China to overseas destinations in Europe and North America. B77W seems too big sometimes.

It's possible there are freight contracts available which makes the 77W the preferred aircraft for the LAX route.

mercure1 · Mon Mar 28, 2016 5:10 pm

When speaking about LAX vs SFO lets not forget that as United Airlines stated, half their SFO-Asia flights are compromised of connection passenger flow.
In other words their Pacific schedule network offered at SFO is significantly larger than local market could support on own.

Freshside3 · Mon Mar 28, 2016 5:27 pm

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 8):

What does this mean for a potential USA-SZX on UA?

IAH, and to a lesser extent, SFO would be the only choices. LAX-SZX is now out, and I cannot fathom flights from EWR/IAD/ORD.

a380787 · Mon Mar 28, 2016 5:28 pm

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 13):

When speaking about LAX vs SFO lets not forget that as United Airlines stated, half their SFO-Asia flights are compromised of connection passenger flow.
In other words their Pacific schedule network offered at SFO is significantly larger than local market could support on own.

That's true for basically any long-haul route that touches a true hub (not a focus city). The LAX capacity is also inflated by the hubs at the Asian side. KE and OZ aren't filling those 380s exclusively with SK-bound traffic alone.

Quoting Freshside3 (Reply 14):

IAH, and to a lesser extent, SFO would be the only choices. LAX-SZX is now out, and I cannot fathom flights from EWR/IAD/ORD.

Why would IAH would be a choice for SZX at all, unless CA/UA really wants to cater to the Vietnamese diaspora traffic there.

steex · Mon Mar 28, 2016 5:42 pm

Quoting Freshside3 (Reply 14):
IAH, and to a lesser extent, SFO would be the only choices. LAX-SZX is now out, and I cannot fathom flights from EWR/IAD/ORD.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 15):
Why would IAH would be a choice for SZX at all, unless CA/UA really wants to cater to the Vietnamese diaspora traffic there.

Agreed, IAH wouldn't even be on the table - any flight by UA to SZX automatically has to be weighed against additional HKG flights, and there's no way IAH-SZX could possibly be a legitimate option when IAH-HKG is not flown. If UA is considering SZX service, it's from SFO with no other discussion whatsoever.

aaway · Mon Mar 28, 2016 5:45 pm

Quoting tcaeyx (Reply 2):
I wonder what's next for LAX.

Rumored additional daily PVG by ????
Rumored 3x p/wk XIY by ????

SFOA380 · Mon Mar 28, 2016 6:13 pm

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 13):

When speaking about LAX vs SFO lets not forget that as United Airlines stated, half their SFO-Asia flights are compromised of connection passenger flow.
In other words their Pacific schedule network offered at SFO is significantly larger than local market could support on own.

SFO is nothing like the fortress hubs seen in other markets. I recently attended an event that featured UA's Andy Buchanan as a speaker. He stated (as he has many other times) that the UA SFO hub is unique because there is so much local demand from the SFO catchment area. Vastly different scenario than say DFW, IAH or ATL. LAX may be the largest O&D airport in the world but 20 million people still use it to connect...

vfw614 · Mon Mar 28, 2016 6:17 pm

Do they have the required traffic rights to serve FRA?

MIflyer12 · Mon Mar 28, 2016 6:44 pm

Quoting SFOA380 (Reply 11):
Bay Area economy is nearly as large with half the population.

No, it isn't. U.S. Dept of Commerce BEA data show regions as MSA, not CSA, so a little adding is necessary, but 2014 GDP data show LA/Long Beach/Anaheim + Oxnard/Thousand Oaks/Ventura a couple hundred Billion $ ahead of San Jose/Sunnyvale/Santa Clara + San Francisco/Oakland/Hayward. That's still a big percentage difference, and $200 Billion in GDP annually is big money - everywhere.

http://www.bea.gov/itable/iTable.cfm...=70&step=1#reqid=70&step=1&isuri=1

Public GDP data are easy. Let's see somebody point to a source of international seats by region by airport for LAX and SFO. Total international passengers has LAX ahead by 80% in 2014. IMHO it's unlikely that advantage is all Mex/Canada/Europe.

https://www.transportation.gov/policy/aviation-policy/us-international-air-passenger-and-freight-statistics-report

SFOA380 · Mon Mar 28, 2016 6:59 pm

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 20):
No, it isn't. U.S. Dept of Commerce BEA data show regions as MSA, not CSA, so a little adding is necessary, but 2014 GDP data show LA/Long Beach/Anaheim + Oxnard/Thousand Oaks/Ventura a couple hundred Billion $ ahead of San Jose/Sunnyvale/Santa Clara + San Francisco/Oakland/Hayward. That's still a big percentage difference, and $200 Billion in GDP annually is big money - everywhere.

Yes you are correct that 200 billion is a massive number but when the number is 800 billion vs. 1000 billion with half the population you can see what I am portraying. Absolutely no comparison when talking per capita.

SFOA380 · Mon Mar 28, 2016 7:11 pm

Quoting SFOA380 (Reply 21):
Public GDP data are easy. Let's see somebody point to a source of international seats by region by airport for LAX and SFO. Total international passengers has LAX ahead by 80% in 2014. IMHO it's unlikely that advantage is all Mex/Canada/Europe.

And with more than twice the population it should be and a whole lot of it is central and south America. Also SJC and OAK both have significant international operations so if numbers are pulled it should include all airports.

a380787 · Mon Mar 28, 2016 7:15 pm

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 20):
Public GDP data are easy. Let's see somebody point to a source of international seats by region by airport for LAX and SFO. Total international passengers has LAX ahead by 80% in 2014. IMHO it's unlikely that advantage is all Mex/Canada/Europe.

Ahead by 80% means more closely aligned to population base, and let's face it, LAX area has far more pure tourism draw, including a huge thing close to SNA called Disneyland. The family of 4 on their annual vacation is going to Disney and Hollywood, not wine tasting in Sonoma.

Another major source of skew is Aus/NZ. The capacity for LAX-Aus/NZ absolutely dwarfs the offerings from SFO. SFO is only connected to SYD+AKL (and new seasonally to NAN) while LAX has a whole host of other destinations like MEL BNE RAR PPT etc, basically all of them being year-round services.

And the 3rd point is what you have mentioned - Mexico and Central America. The tourism, business, and VFR traffic all heavily skew SoCal over NorCal due to the underlying demographics. That's why quite a few SFO-LatAm routes routinely struggle (to varying degrees) while the same services to LAX are multi-daily.

DolphinAir747 · Mon Mar 28, 2016 7:44 pm

Quoting g500 (Reply 3):
I think there is ZERO doubt that what Miami is to South America, and New York is to Europe, LAX is to Asia...

I don't think SFO even comes close to matching LAX

Except LAX, with its very large variety of foreign carriers and split between the US3, cannot be a fortress hub in the same way as SFO or MIA.

SFOA380 · Mon Mar 28, 2016 8:23 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 23):
Ahead by 80% means more closely aligned to population base, and let's face it, LAX area has far more pure tourism draw, including a huge thing close to SNA called Disneyland. The family of 4 on their annual vacation is going to Disney and Hollywood, not wine tasting in Sonoma.

Exactly. The NorCal traveler is generally far more affluent and discerning than the family going to Disneyland. Same goes for the outbound traveler.

travelin man · Mon Mar 28, 2016 8:29 pm

Quoting SFOA380 (Reply 25):
The NorCal traveler is generally far more affluent and discerning than the family going to Disneyland. Same goes for the outbound traveler.

I am laughing that you think "NorCal travelers" are not going to Disneyland. There are what -- 150? 200? -- flights per day between the SoCal and NorCal and you think none of them are going to Disneyland?

lol.

DavidByrne · Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:14 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Chinese secondary airport longhaul services continue as airlines rapidly lock in traffic rights.

Air China has applied with the CAAC to commence service from Shenzhen to both Frankfurt, and Los Angeles.

Just reported elsewhere that Hainan Airlines wants to start SZX-AKL 3x weekly with an A330 from November, as well.

SFOA380 · Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:24 pm

Quoting travelin man (Reply 26):
I am laughing that you think "NorCal travelers" are not going to Disneyland. There are what -- 150? 200? -- flights per day between the SoCal and NorCal and you think none of them are going to Disneyland?

Not at all what I meant. More talking about the inbound traveler.

a380787 · Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:26 pm

Quoting davidbyrne (Reply 27):
Just reported elsewhere that Hainan Airlines wants to start SZX-AKL 3x weekly with an A330 from November, as well.

Oh goodness gracious. More of the dartboard. Why not Wenzhou to Christchurch while they're at it ?

DavidByrne · Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:33 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 29):
Quoting davidbyrne (Reply 27):
Just reported elsewhere that Hainan Airlines wants to start SZX-AKL 3x weekly with an A330 from November, as well.

Oh goodness gracious. More of the dartboard. Why not Wenzhou to Christchurch while they're at it ?

The way things are heading, watch this space!

Freshside3 · Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:43 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 15):
Why would IAH would be a choice for SZX at all, unless CA/UA really wants to cater to the Vietnamese diaspora traffic there.

Precisely. Lots of Vietnamese in Texas, and a certain amount of people transit HKG to get to SGN. So it fits into the equation.But diaspora travel is rarely, if ever, a factor for UA, when it comes to new routes.

Quoting steex (Reply 16):
Agreed, IAH wouldn't even be on the table - any flight by UA to SZX automatically has to be weighed against additional HKG flights, and there's no way IAH-SZX could possibly be a legitimate option when IAH-HKG is not flown. If UA is considering SZX service, it's from SFO with no other discussion whatsoever.

Yes, IAH could use some more China service. But all bets would be off on IAH-SZX, if any carrier did IAH-HKG.

a380787 · Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:49 pm

Quoting Freshside3 (Reply 31):
Yes, IAH could use some more China service. But all bets would be off on IAH-SZX, if any carrier did IAH-HKG.

If UA were to launch a IAH TPAC flight not already covered by partners, the most likely scenario is IAH-PVG. Any talk of HKG SZX CAN HGH you name it is backburner. But then again, after all this LAX-PEK bidding, there's only 2x weekly frequencies left, which makes IAH-PVG highly unlikely anytime prior to a modification of the bilateral.

Air China Plans Shenzhen - FRA & LAX Service

Air China Plans Shenzhen - FRA & LAX Service

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RE: Air China Plans Shenzhen - FRA & LAX Service

RE: Air China Plans Shenzhen - FRA & LAX Service

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