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US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Mar 31, 2016 2:28 pm

Continue discussion here

US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots (by LAXintl Jan 20 2016 in Civil Aviation)
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Mar 31, 2016 3:29 pm

So lets summarize:

US - Japan reached agreement to expand HND slots now compromising 5 day time operations plus a single nighttime slot with effect from October.

DOT has tentatively announced AA, DL, HA and UA can shift their current nighttime HND flights to daytime slots effective with the W16 schedule.
DOT has also tentatively announced it desires all operators to reapply for current authorities for S17 season and beyond.

AA, HA and UA have opposed DOT desire to recontest the routes stating they should be allowed to keep current routes so long as they remain compliant with terms and the DOT should only launch route contest for the 2 remaining slot authorities.
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Mar 31, 2016 8:01 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 1):
AA, HA and UA have opposed DOT desire to recontest the routes stating they should be allowed to keep current routes so long as they remain compliant with terms and the DOT should only launch route contest for the 2 remaining slot authorities.

Has DL filed a response yet?
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Mar 31, 2016 10:57 pm

Nothing from Delta. Though I suspect they would happily have the DOT reconsider all the awards.
They would after all have a better shot as winning back their lost frequency and potentially try to secure 3rd one.
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 01, 2016 12:16 am

The airlines currently operating the HND flights have been doing it with the schedule from hell since they have to operate within 2200-0700. They are probably loosing money to the US 48 just waiting to move the flights to a schedule similar to their current NRT schedules from the west coast.

Now that has happened and lets not take it away from them, these airlines have been waiting for the gravy train to start. The additional slots should be from the east coast or the midwest since all current HND flights are from California or Honolulu. AA from JFK to Haneda would be very nice.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 01, 2016 12:27 am

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 4):


They are probably loosing money to the US 48 just waiting to move the flights to a schedule similar to their current NRT schedules from the west coast.

Hawaiian Airlines most likely excepted. The schedule to HNL isn't too bad for Japan originating pax.
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 01, 2016 12:34 am

Quoting OzarkD9S (Reply 5):
Hawaiian Airlines most likely excepted. The schedule to HNL isn't too bad for Japan originating pax.

The current "vampire" 2200-0700 schedule has always worked from Hawaii. HNL is a large market from Japan so are others especially LAX and JFK, ORD and SFO are close too. AS we all know the 2200-0700 window has been a disaster from the US 48.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 01, 2016 4:16 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 1):
US - Japan reached agreement to expand HND slots now compromising 5 day time operations plus a single nighttime slot with effect from October.

Don't get me wrong, your recap is much appreciated. But please get your words right. The HND slots aren't "compromising", they are *comprising*, aren't they?

Sorry to be nit-picking, but I think it's a matter of courtesy to our fellow a-netters to double-check our spelling and grammar at this site, and I try to hold myself to that same standard too.  
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 07, 2016 2:33 pm

Quoting klkla (Reply 2):
Has DL filed a response yet?

Delta did now. No surprise, they believe that all 6 slots should be reviewed and re-awarded.
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 07, 2016 2:36 pm

Quoting MarcoPoloWorld (Reply 7):

Don't get me wrong, your recap is much appreciated. But please get your words right. The HND slots aren't "compromising", they are *comprising*, aren't they?

Sorry to be nit-picking, but I think it's a matter of courtesy to our fellow a-netters to double-check our spelling and grammar at this site, and I try to hold myself to that same standard too.  

DL would think it's a "compromise" since they failed to argue their case of moving their entire NRT hub over.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 07, 2016 4:07 pm

And for now the DOT has halted consideration of reassignment of authorities.

With 3 of 4 incumbent airlines challenging the plans, the DOT has halted all consideration and will first rule on whether it truly seeks to re-award all 6 slot authorities, or only the 2 additional ones as the 3 airlines request.

No new timeline provided.
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 14, 2016 3:37 pm

DOT is out with its response.

It has decided to continue with its plan to launch proceeding to review and potentially reallocate all current HND slot holdings in addition to the two new ones.

The DOT did however reassure AA, HA and UA which opposed the proposal that it could very well be that the department again finds the exiting routes operated are in the the public best interest and slot pairs remain with incumbent carriers. DOT's goal remains desire to promote a variety of benefits for U.S travelers which may include geographic diversity among US gateways, and promoting broader market competition.

The updated procedural schedule for the proceeding as follows:

Applications - April 21, 2016
Answers - May 5, 2016
Replies - May 12, 2016

=

Order 2016-4-11
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 15, 2016 7:50 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 11):

DOT is out with its response.

It has decided to continue with its plan to launch proceeding to review and potentially reallocate all current HND slot holdings in addition to the two new ones.

This is quite an unexpected and unwelcome turn of events for the incumbent carriers (except DL, apparently) and it will be very interesting to see how things transpire in this route case. The application deadline is in less than a week and six slot pairs are available (five daytime and one night time).

I think Hawaiian will have a tough case to argue why HNL-HND deserves a daytime slot pair and it may be that they end up having to keep the single night-time pair. In repeated DOT filings they have wasted no opportunity in emphasizing how successful HND-HNL has been using night slots, compared to the mainland routes. This might work against them if they are seeking daytime slots.

As for AA, I’m sure that their first priority will be keeping LAX-HND using daytime slots. It’s the biggest mainland O/D market and probably the most competitive. Not to mention, AA’s main network development strategy since the merger has been to make LAX their primary transpacific gateway. The risk is that DOT may not want to award 2 slots for the same gateway and may choose to award LAX-HND to DL instead, perhaps because they have no Japanese partner and have already been flying LAX-HND a lot longer than AA. AA needs to put forward the best argument they can – they should propose a 77W and emphasize that they can offer more connections over LAX than DL and a lot of extra markets beyond HND. Plus they can also argue that LAX is the largest mainland market to Tokyo, so inter-carrier competition would benefit passengers (ie. DOT is justified in awarding LAX-HND to both AA and DL). Also, they have spent 5 years trying to get LAX-HND authority and invested considerable resources in opening the route and there will be a negative impact on customers and staff if they are forced to close it.

I expect that AA will also apply for other gateways, including JFK, ORD and maybe DFW.

DL will probably apply for all six slot pairs (maybe DTW, LAX, SEA, JFK and ATL daytime and HNL night time).
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 21, 2016 8:47 pm

Is there any update on the slot application? It's due today..
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 21, 2016 9:09 pm

So far only HA's application is online.

They applied for

1) HNL-HND daytime 7 weekly plus another 7 weekly frequencies split between HNL/KOA (3x KOA, 4x HNL) during daytime hours too
2) If they don't get the split frequencies during daylight hours, they want the nightslots.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 21, 2016 9:14 pm

Yes.

In Summary

AA
LAX-HND Daily 787 daytime slot
DFW-HND Daily 772 daytime slot


DL
LAX-HND Daily 772 daytime slot
MSP-HND Daily 772 dayime slot
ATL-HND Daily 772 daytime slot

HA
HNL-HND 11x weekly 330 daytime slot
KOA-HND 3x weekly 330 daytime slot
**HA says its willing to except the single night time slot for 4x weekly HNL-HND or 3x weekly KOA-HND as third choice

UA
SFO-HND Daily 789 daytime slot
EWR-HND Daily 772 daytime slot

=

NOTE:
The manner I listed the routes is the award selection preference by the airlines
In other words AA for example would first seek to continue flying LAX-HND before being awarded a second slot pair to enable DFW-HND.

[Edited 2016-04-21 14:27:31]
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 21, 2016 9:16 pm

Quoting HeeseokKoo (Reply 13):

Is there any update on the slot application? It's due today..
HA's application is in:
https://www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;D=DOT-OST-2016-0048-0011

Daylight HNL-HND, plus 3x weekly to KOA and another 4x weekly to HNL. I didn't see daytime or nighttime specified.

Edit: LAXintl has the full scoop.

[Edited 2016-04-21 14:17:55]
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 21, 2016 9:18 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 15):

DL
LAX-HND Daily 772 daytime slot
MSP-HND Daily 772 dayime slot
ATL-HND Daily 772 daytime slot

Given DL's history at HND, I will not believe they will operate an aircraft as big as a 772 to HND for longer than a season. Even with daytime slots.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 21, 2016 9:30 pm

For Delta I am a bit surprised they went with Minneapolis as second choice and not Detroit, or rank Atlanta higher.
Also not trying to go for the Seattle option again.
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 21, 2016 9:34 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 15):
DL
LAX-HND Daily 772 daytime slot
MSP-HND Daily 772 dayime slot
ATL-HND Daily 772 daytime slot

Delta keeps playing games in these procedures. They are only going for MSP instead of DTW, because DTW has failed in the past.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 21, 2016 9:41 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 15):
In Summary

AA
LAX-HND Daily 787 daytime slot
DFW-HND Daily 772 daytime slot


DL
LAX-HND Daily 772 daytime slot
MSP-HND Daily 772 dayime slot
ATL-HND Daily 772 daytime slot

HA
HNL-HND 11x weekly 330 daytime slot
KOA-HND 3x weekly 330 daytime slot
**HA says its willing to also except single night time slot for 4x weekly HNL-HND or 3x weekly KOA-HND as third choice

UA
SFO-HND Daily 789 daytime slot
EWR-HND Daily 772 daytime slot

I'm surprised no one put in an application for ORD-HND with daytime slots, and that UA is the only applicant in NYC-HND. I imagine UA will get awarded EWR-HND since New York is such a large market.
If I had my way, I think my picks would be:
UA SFO-HND daytime
DL LAX-HND daytime
AA DFW-HND daytime
DL MSP-HND daytime
UA EWR-HND daytime
HA HNL-HND nighttime

I wonder if AA applying for LAX-HND on the 787 will hurt them vs DL's 772... Out of any of DL's applications, I imagine they'd have the easiest time filling the 772 on LAX-HND.

With the opening up of daytime slots for U.S. airlines, are the Japanese airlines also moving their existing HND routes to daytime hours?
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 21, 2016 9:43 pm

Proposed schedules - Summer 2017

AA
AA27 LAX-HND 1140-1515 787
AA26 HND-LAX 1755-1220 787

AA53 DFW-HND 1105-1415 772
AA52 HND-DFW 1830-1615 772


DL
DL7 LAX-HND 1110-1425 777
DL6 HND-LAX 1650-0945 777

DL17 MSP-HND 1130-1520 777
DL16 HND-MSP 1735-1335 777

DL183 ATL-HND 1105-1405 777
DL184 HND-ATL 1555-1525 777


HA
HA457 HNL-HND 1555-1930 330
HA458 HND-HNL 2130-1015 330

HA855 HNL-HND 1345-1720 330 4x weekly
HA856 HND-HNL 2030-0915 330 4x weekly

HA851 KOA-HND 1330-1720 330 3x weekly
HA852 HND-KOA 2020-0925 330 3x weekly

nighttime option:
HA855 HNL-HND 1825-2200 330 4x weekly
HA856 HND-HNL 2355-1240 330 4x weekly

HA851 KOA-HND 1810-2200 330 3x weekly
HA852 HND-KOA 2355-1250 330 3x weekly


UA
UA875 SFO-HND 1040 1355 789
UA876 HND-SFO 1550-0905 789

UA843 EWR-HND 1100-1400 772
UA842 HND-EWR 1600-1555 772

=
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 21, 2016 9:48 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 18):
For Delta I am a bit surprised they went with Minneapolis as second choice and not Detroit, or rank Atlanta higher.
Also not trying to go for the Seattle option again.

I imagine DL has a higher proportion of beyond-NRT traffic on DTW-NRT, SEA-NRT, and JFK-NRT than on MSP-NRT (although I could certainly be wrong). How many people from Minneapolis go to TPE, MNL, BKK, and SIN? Probably not as many as from SEA, DTW, and JFK, if I had to guess.

This application makes me think that ATL and MSP likely contribute the least connecting traffic to DL's NRT hub (and maybe PDX, but they weren't going to waste a slot application on PDX-HND).
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 21, 2016 9:48 pm

Quoting FSDan (Reply 20):
If I had my way, I think my picks would be:
UA SFO-HND daytime
DL LAX-HND daytime
AA DFW-HND daytime
DL MSP-HND daytime
UA EWR-HND daytime
HA HNL-HND nighttime

I think one of those daytime slots is supposed to be nighttime. But regardless, that's a nice, geographically diverse allocation.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 21, 2016 9:50 pm

Sad that no one applied for a JFK to Haneda route. Maybe one of the two Japanese airlines will fly the route.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 21, 2016 10:00 pm

No SEA-HND and both MSP-HND and ATL-HND over DTW-HND are big surprises. The MSP move seems political.

No JFK-HND from either AA or DL is interesting. Seems UA has a good chance at EWR.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 21, 2016 10:02 pm

What's interesting is that American seeks to replace its current LAX-HND service and add to its DFW-NRT service with its two applied slots. Net gain of 1 flight. (Assuming different flight #s means an additional flight)

Delta replaces LAX-HND and MSP-NRT, but adds an additional ATL-HND so a net gain of 1 flight to Japan.

United is replacing SFO-HND and appears to be adding HND to its current EWR-NRT. Again, net gain of 1.

[Edited 2016-04-21 15:11:41]
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 21, 2016 10:05 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 24):
Sad that no one applied for a JFK to Haneda route. Maybe one of the two Japanese airlines will fly the route.

ANA CEO said they were studying such option. Was posted in previous edition of this thread
US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots (by LAXintl Jan 20 2016 in Civil Aviation)
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 21, 2016 10:08 pm

I'm baffled by Delta threatening MSP-NRT if there is no MSP-HND allocation. They have hit a new low.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 21, 2016 10:29 pm

Seems like AA concluded - smartly and, in my view, accurately - that it's the weakest among the incumbents and thus shouldn't waste its time applying for a bunch of stuff it will never get.

Hawaiian can argue its success and the obvious HNL O&D, United can argue the power of the SFO hub, and of course Delta will continue complaining about its alleged disadvantages. Against that, and considering it only just reentered HND, AA seems to me the odd man out - hopefully AA gets to at least keep LAX-HND and shift it to daytime.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 21, 2016 10:35 pm

Quoting FSDan (Reply 20):
I imagine UA will get awarded EWR-HND since New York is such a large market.

That would seem logical since one of the DOJ goals is to promote service with the most public benefit.

That said, are you thinking that UA might end up with SFO and EWR or would UA settle for accepting EWR and losing the daytime SFO? I find it hard to believe that out of all the US markets, SFO would end up without HND service by a US carrier.

[Edited 2016-04-21 15:36:21]
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 21, 2016 10:47 pm

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 30):

Agreed SFO has a very strong case. EWR is decent too since no one else applied for JFK at all, even though most of A.net was guessing for JFK.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 21, 2016 11:14 pm

Some random tidbits in arguments I picked up from the the applications:

AA
o AA existing LAX-HND route has 91.5%LF since launch. LAX-NRT was 86.7% in 2015.
o California represents 53% US mainland-Japan traffic.
o DFW has largest Japanese traffic demand in the U.S outside LA/SF/NY metro areas. Over 150 large Japanese companies in North Texas.
o DFW best placed U.S.hub to offer competitive Latin American-Japan links
o Existing NRT-DFW flight makes DFW the #1 in gateway in beyond connection pax counts for destinations East of Rockies.
o AA smallest competitor to US-Japan - almost 80% less seats than DL/UA. Even AA/JL combined comes in last place behind DL and UA/NH in flown passengers.


DL
o “competitive balance” is key and should drive DOT decisions
o Access to Haneda Airport is essential for Delta long term success in Tokyo market. Narita and Haneda are not substitutes, and Haneda Airport is the proven consumer preferred airport.
o The experience of LHR and LGW serve as example for what is occurring in Tokyo for U.S. airlines
o Delta has "future Plans for Haneda"
o DL LAX-HND LF 82% in 2015, highest since 2011 launch
o LAX generates biggest U.S mainland demand to Japan
o "Since 2009, Delta has been the fastest growing carrier at LAX"
o With pax preference for HND, "suggest that NRT service from MSP not sustainable". Need HND slot to "ensure that Minneapolis will continue to serve the Tokyo market."
o "Only natural" for worlds largest hub ATL to be linked to HND


HA
o HA has "thrived" with existing HND service. Route has been "unequivocal success"
o Having presence in Tokyo critical to succeeded in Japan. 68% of Japan-USA O&D out of Tokyo metro
o Says independent carriers are rare bread in US - challenged "by behemoths in the Star/OW/Skyteam oligopoly"
o Again continues to argue about economic benefits of tourism in Hawaii. (not sure DOT cares as in the past)
o Hawaii represents 39% of all Japan-US passengers.


UA
o SFO-HND "operating successfully." 150,237 U.S.customers, of which ~60,000 having connected at SFO made use of convenient service last 12-mos
o UA has proven public benefit of service from its SFO hub
o By many orders of magnitude CA has largest demand for Asian services
o NYC as top global metro represent large business and leisure market - ~370,000 potential annual NYC-Tokyo travelers can benefit from new EWR-HND link
o With largest hub in Northeast - EWR "natural fit for scheduled service to Haneda"

=
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 21, 2016 11:16 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 29):
Seems like AA concluded - smartly and, in my view, accurately - that it's the weakest among the incumbents and thus shouldn't waste its time applying for a bunch of stuff it will never get.

I like how AA contextualized its argument. It reminded the DOT of how Delta and United became so strong in the US-Japan market and that not much has really changed since then. I think that argument might just prevail and get them a second slot pair.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 21, 2016 11:28 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 32):
o AA existing LAX-HND route has 91.5%LF since launch

If AA has a 91.5% load factor, why would they even want to mess with changing the timing? If they can fill a plane with an existing night-time slot, why not just keep it there and ask for a daytime slot in a market that needs a better time to be successful?
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 21, 2016 11:36 pm

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 34):
If they can fill a plane with an existing night-time slot, why not just keep it there and ask for a daytime slot in a market that needs a better time to be successful?

Because as is repeated here multiple times, LF does not equate to making money. Daytime slots should command more premium.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 12:10 am

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 34):
If AA has a 91.5% load factor, why would they even want to mess with changing the timing? If they can fill a plane with an existing night-time slot, why not just keep it there and ask for a daytime slot in a market that needs a better time to be successful?

For starters they will be able to connect to 23 Japanese cities via JAL now at HND with daytime schedule.

They also state the night time schedule is not optimized at LAX end either due late return times.
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klkla
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 12:30 am

What role will the AA-JA and UA/NH joint ventures have in DL's argument? Will that have any effect on the outcome?
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 12:56 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 32):
With pax preference for HND, "suggest that NRT service from MSP not sustainable". Need HND slot to "ensure that Minneapolis will continue to serve the Tokyo market."

So they're using the political angle, like I thought. I got a chuckle out of it. DL will try anything.

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 34):
If AA has a 91.5% load factor, why would they even want to mess with changing the timing? If they can fill a plane with an existing night-time slot, why not just keep it there and ask for a daytime slot in a market that needs a better time to be successful?

If it's the same at AA as it is at DL, I'd say it's due to yields. I've never seen consistently good bookings up front on the DL HND flights when compared to NRT.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 1:06 am

I think it would be very odd if all the operators currently operating HND routes don't get offered slots with this new configuration. I think there is a chance they stick HA with night time only slots because that works better there but UA at SFO and AA at LAX are locks for keeping that service in my opinion.

I definitely see UA picking up EWR for obvious reasons. And DL has to get something. I don't see the feds giving LAX to DL over or including AA. So that leaves DL's 2nd pick MSP which seems odd but if DL believes it can work! And either AA gets DFW or HA gets HNL/KOA slots. HA keeps nighttime HNL-HND slots.

Thats my best guess

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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 1:28 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 39):
I think it would be very odd if all the operators currently operating HND routes don't get offered slots with this new configuration. I think there is a chance they stick HA with night time only slots because that works better there but UA at SFO and AA at LAX are locks for keeping that service in my opinion.

I definitely see UA picking up EWR for obvious reasons. And DL has to get something. I don't see the feds giving LAX to DL over or including AA. So that leaves DL's 2nd pick MSP which seems odd but if DL believes it can work! And either AA gets DFW or HA gets HNL/KOA slots. HA keeps nighttime HNL-HND slots.

None of knows what the DOT will decide, but I think it is naive to think DL will walk away with only one daytime HND slot. Giving the opposition by AA, UA, and HA to the DOT reconsidering the previous slot awards... the process is assumed to favor DL. It is almost certainly a factor that AA & UA will be considered in conjunction with JL & NH. I personally think it is a given that DL will continue to operate LAX-HND (I'm not sure how you conclude AAat LAX is a lock and not DL), will they allow AA to operate alongside DL I have no idea but I think DL on LAX-HND is the biggest no brainier. They have operated that route for years, it is a huge market, and without a Japanese JV partner they are considered the underdog in the market.
 
hkcanadaexpat
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 2:38 am

I would assume (maybe incorrectly) that DOT will look at the total HND picture (incl. ANA/JAL slots) in how it allocates things. From that perspective, i think the allocations will go along the lines of:

UA/NH
>SFO-HND daytime (UA)
>EWR-HND daytime (UA)
> LAX-HND daytime (NH)
> ORD-HND daytime (NH)
> HNL-HND day/nighttime (NH)

JL/AA
> LAX-HND daytime (AA)
> JFK-HND daytime (JL)
> DFW-HND daytime (JL)
> HNL-HND day/nighttime (JL)

DL
> LAX-HND daytime
> MSP/ATL-HND daytime

HA
> HNL-HND nighttime

A
 
azjubilee
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 2:40 am

If I'm understanding correctly (and HAL references this in their application) that while all current slots are up for bid, the incumbents now all have "daytime" authority. The DOT when issuing their reply to HA, AA and UA regarding everything being up for grabs, essentially said that all incumbents could likely keep their current flying. The one wildcard however, could be the double LAX service that DL and AA have. If maintaining status quo takes place, my bets are a toss up between DL getting ATL or UA getting EWR, with the edge to DL because they are without a Japanese partner. Then they'll overlook HA for the day slot for the proposed HNL/KOA split, but award it in the night slot. If they break up the double LAX situation, then things get wild.
 
tortugamon
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 3:14 am

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 40):
I think it is naive to think DL will walk away with only one daytime HND slot.

Why? They didn't do well at SEA or DTW. Not sure why things would be different now. UA seems a lock for 2 slots.

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 40):
I'm not sure how you conclude AAat LAX is a lock and not DL

AA has stronger rationale being bigger at LAX and also having JAL partnership at HND. I don't see them approving two operators on the same day time route. Maybe they let one operate a night time LAX route...but I think AA's case is stronger.

tortugamon
 
FSDan
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 3:48 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 43):

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 40):
I think it is naive to think DL will walk away with only one daytime HND slot.

Why? They didn't do well at SEA or DTW. Not sure why things would be different now.

Things would be different now because the slots are at reasonable hours... SEA or DTW would probably be 10 times better now as well, but DL didn't request those.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 43):
AA has stronger rationale being bigger at LAX and also having JAL partnership at HND. I don't see them approving two operators on the same day time route. Maybe they let one operate a night time LAX route...but I think AA's case is stronger.

I think those same arguments could also favor DL as an underdog. If I were the DOT I'd give AA DFW-HND instead if they don't want two airlines on the LAX-HND route.
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LAXintl
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 4:05 am

Here is my simplistic take:

Since California represent over 50% of mainland demand for Japan service, all 3 the incumbents keep their California routes.

Likewise Hawaii is major market and HA has proven its service. Luckily the night time slots work well to Hawaii service, to let HA keep its existing service but using the sole night time slot.

For the remaining 2 slots, introduce competition from a new gateway.
I see MSP as largely a joke, small local market and hardly most beneficial with connection hubs.
EWR obviously the largest local market outside of California and certainly deserves Haneda link
That leaves ATL and DFW - both mega Southern hubs. Take your pick which is best for consumers - I'd say DFW, but if politics and desire to give DL another slot is the idea then ATL takes the award.

[Edited 2016-04-21 21:07:59]
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DFWEagle
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 4:10 am

Quoting FSDan (Reply 20):
I'm surprised no one put in an application for ORD-HND with daytime slots, and that UA is the only applicant in NYC-HND. I imagine UA will get awarded EWR-HND since New York is such a large market.

On individual route merit, EWR-HND looks like a winner. However, the DOT will also consider competitive balance and UA+NH are already dominant in the US-Japan market and have been growing their dominance rapidly since their joint venture started, primarily at the expense of DL. Further, this will likely increase more as NH is expected to be awarded 4 of the Japanese slot pairs for US service, compared to 2 for JAL. I think the DOT will find it hard to justify awarding 2x slot pairs to UA, while giving either AA or DL only one. Plus, from their comments in the media, it is all but certain that ANA will start JFK-HND and probably JL will also, so New York City will still be adequately covered, even without this award.

Quoting commavia (Reply 29):
Seems like AA concluded - smartly and, in my view, accurately - that it's the weakest among the incumbents and thus shouldn't waste its time applying for a bunch of stuff it will never get.

Hawaiian can argue its success and the obvious HNL O&D, United can argue the power of the SFO hub, and of course Delta will continue complaining about its alleged disadvantages. Against that, and considering it only just reentered HND, AA seems to me the odd man out - hopefully AA gets to at least keep LAX-HND and shift it to daytime.

AA’s application claims that even if AA+JL is combined, they still have a smaller share of US-Japan traffic than either UA or DL alone, and a much smaller share than the UA+NH alliance. Obviously AA alone is far smaller than either DL or UA. As the smallest player in the US-Japan market, and as a member of the weakest alliance in the market, AA has a good case to argue that they deserve 1-2 slot pairs to promote and maintain robust inter-alliance competition.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 39):
I think it would be very odd if all the operators currently operating HND routes don't get offered slots with this new configuration. I think there is a chance they stick HA with night time only slots because that works better there but UA at SFO and AA at LAX are locks for keeping that service in my opinion.

I definitely see UA picking up EWR for obvious reasons. And DL has to get something. I don't see the feds giving LAX to DL over or including AA. So that leaves DL's 2nd pick MSP which seems odd but if DL believes it can work! And either AA gets DFW or HA gets HNL/KOA slots. HA keeps nighttime HNL-HND slots.

I tend to agree. Personally, I believe it is unlikely that any carrier will end up with less access to Haneda than they currently have now (ie. one night time slot pair). If that happens, the DOT will be facing a lot of negative attention from politicians close to the affected carrier, and even opening up the possibility of legal action against them for revoking route authority that was granted indefinitely and has been consistently used as required.

However, the schedule that HA has proposed using daytime slots has an arrival in HND at 19:30 (only 2hr35 earlier than the present schedule) and a departure at 21:30 (2hr25 earlier than present). It is difficult to justify why daytime slots should be used to re-time a service by only 2 and a half hours, particularly as HA’s application keeps emphasizing how successful the route has been with night time slots. Also, HA is the only applicant that would accept night time slots, so I think that’s what they are most likely to be given.
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LAXtoATL
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 4:14 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 43):
Why? They didn't do well at SEA or DTW. Not sure why things would be different now. UA seems a lock for 2 slots.

Whether they did well or not, they were granted the authority. The same people will be deciding again and apparently they view DL as without a JV partner requiring extra access to compete (and they said is much during the original awards).

Also, nobody need particular well with nighttime slots and everyone is eager to get the daytime slots. I doubt previous performance will have any bearing at all. The airlines of course can and have used that data to alter their choices this time around to what they think will perform the best.

UA was almost locked out entirely last time and now you think they are lock for two?? They might get two but I don't there is any rational evidence to say they are a lock. Even UA doesn't think they are lock for two or they wouldn't hAve opposed the re-awarding of all slot pairs.

Like I said we don't know what the DOT will do, but all reasonable evidence would suggest that DL is the likeliest to benefit from the process DOT proposed (this based on the original award justifications and the fact that DL agreed with DOT proposal and every other airline vehemently were against it)

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 43):
AA has stronger rationale being bigger at LAX and also having JAL partnership at HND. I don't see them approving two operators on the same day time route. Maybe they let one operate a night time LAX route...but I think AA's case is stronger.

First of all the JL partnership will almost likely be a negative for AA's case. Based on DOT rational during the original awards they want to balance the routes between the three aliances (AA and JL will be looked at jointly). If AA's case was so strong at LAX you would think hey would have won the original award instead of DL and not just recently getting the authority after DL gave it back (AA tried multiple times to get it and DOT kept letting DL move it and sit on it). If there is only one operator on the daytime LAX-HND I think you will find it will belong to DL. DOT originally gave it to them and I can't think of anything that has changed since would go against their opinion in why they gave it to them in the first place.

The fact that you think AA's case is stronger is meaningless. It is what the DOT thinks and not only do you not seem to consider their stated rational for these awards but you are actually completely contradicting it by suggested AA's partnership with JL is reason they should get LAX when DOT cited that as a reason why they didn't get it the first time around. Since AA's only existing route is LAX and they opposed the re-awarding I think it is clear they believe that route is very much in jeopardy, but DL doesn't seem to have that concern. I wonder why? Maybe they aren't as clued in as you are. Or just maybe it is the other way around.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 6:51 am

Quoting FSDan (Reply 44):
I think those same arguments could also favor DL as an underdog. If I were the DOT I'd give AA DFW-HND instead if they don't want two airlines on the LAX-HND route.

DOT almost always defers to an airline's order of preference. It is highly unlikely AA will get DFWHND without LAXHND; same goes for DL, if it gets only one slot, it is highly unlikely it will be anything but LAXHND.

People are reading way too much into this - the chances of any incumbent actually losing their route are slim to none.
a.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 7:58 am

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 47):
First of all the JL partnership will almost likely be a negative for AA's case. Based on DOT rational during the original awards they want to balance the routes between the three aliances (AA and JL will be looked at jointly). If AA's case was so strong at LAX you would think hey would have won the original award instead of DL and not just recently getting the authority after DL gave it back (AA tried multiple times to get it and DOT kept letting DL move it and sit on it). If there is only one operator on the daytime LAX-HND I think you will find it will belong to DL. DOT originally gave it to them and I can't think of anything that has changed since would go against their opinion in why they gave it to them in the first place.

This time AA is making the argument that even if you account for JL's share of the market, DL and UA are still larger. It didn't make that argument last time. It may and it probably should change the DOT's thinking on the matter. Because if DL remains larger in the US-Japan market than AA+JAL, are they really at a disadvantage without an alliance partner?

...That's not exactly how I remember it. I think JFK-HND was AA's first choice. (I am not even sure they applied for LAX.)

Whatever the case, DL was awarded the LAX route because the DOT saw fit to give them two routes. As such, it wasn't really a choice between AA and DL for LAX.

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