airliner371
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 9:01 am

I'd like to see the following:

AA LAX Daytime
DL MSP Daytime
DL LAX Nighttime
HA HNL Daytime
UA SFO Daytime
UA EWR Daytime
 
MAH4546
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 9:04 am

Quoting ldvaviation (Reply 49):
That's not exactly how I remember it. I think JFK-HND was AA's first choice. (I am not even sure they applied for LAX.)

AA did apply for LAXHND, but in second position to JFKHND.
a.
 
tbboko802
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 10:11 am

I am very happy For DFW! The loads out IAH for NH are excellent,. Is there no chance that United will move it IAH-NRT to HND
Be Open to Change
 
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enilria
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 11:17 am

I think I understand why DL felt they had to apply for MSP. Having said that, I think it will win and that it will be pretty much a financial disaster even with better slots than past attempts. If they drop MSP-NRT it has a better chance, but still poor.
 
C010T3
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 11:42 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 48):
DOT almost always defers to an airline's order of preference. It is highly unlikely AA will get DFWHND without LAXHND; same goes for DL, if it gets only one slot, it is highly unlikely it will be anything but LAXHND.

Just like the DOT ignored that SEA-HND was Delta's first choice back in 2010?
 
a380787
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 12:13 pm

I find MSP as a pure political play, basically either move to HND, or use the failure to move as a perfect excuse to drop it .... Hope the DOT can see through that. Me sitting as my armchair DOT hat I'd give LAX+ATL to DL not MSP.

Regarding the Japanese side, do we KNOW whether the split is 3/3 or 4/2 ? That makes a world of difference regarding whether EWR or DFW has a chance.
 
NickLAX
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 1:24 pm

Sitting in HND right now talking to some regulars on the AA, NH and DL LAX flights. The AA and DL regulars not happy with daytime switch and are honestly contemplating not even bothering on using these flights and going to other Asia destinations first to maximize time in region - the proposed daytime slots are great for those who don't care about limiting dead time on a Tokyo trip. Arriving in the afternoon means no real time for customer meetings - leaving early evening means a mid afternoon cut off on meetings. These are people who did this 10+ times a year and no one is looking forward in this crowd of 15 to daytime flights. All said NRT gave them that and Skyliner and shorter Narita Express was acceptable. HND nighttime flights allowed maximum time in Tokyo with minimum downtime.
 
FSDan
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 1:34 pm

Quoting ldvaviation (Reply 49):
This time AA is making the argument that even if you account for JL's share of the market, DL and UA are still larger. It didn't make that argument last time. It may and it probably should change the DOT's thinking on the matter.

I don't know about that... When looking at just HND, DL is the only one of the three without a Japanese JV partner. Since the JV partners are also receiving additional slots, that puts DL at a distinct disadvantage. I can't see the DOT giving DL fewer than two awards. Am I wrong in thinking that AA would have no problem adding flights to NRT and other airports in Japan to catch up to DL and UA if they really wanted to?
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
LAXtoATL
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 2:17 pm

Quoting FSDan (Reply 58):
I don't know about that... When looking at just HND, DL is the only one of the three without a Japanese JV partner. Since the JV partners are also receiving additional slots, that puts DL at a distinct disadvantage. I can't see the DOT giving DL fewer than two awards. Am I wrong in thinking that AA would have no problem adding flights to NRT and other airports in Japan to catch up to DL and UA if they really wanted to?

I believe this is how DOT will look at it as well and DL will certainly make it a point of emphasize.

AA touts the JL partnership and onward connections as a consumer benefit that DL doesn't have and then says we are currently the smallest of the three alliances. If they are the smallest, it is by choice given the advantage of a JV partner on both sides. I don't think DOT would award based on that and then lock out the carrier without a partner basically permanently limiting their growth. Also, the increased routes the JV partners will be getting will taken into account (going by the previous awards and rationale). People are looking at the cities proposed by just the US carriers but you need to also look at the cities currently and likely to be served by NH & JL. (In a bubble UA at EWR looks like a no brainier but with NH getting the majority of the slots from the Japan side and the likeliness they would serve NYC, it is not such a sure thing - there are a lot of variables at play and it is hard to say what will weigh most when the DOT considers the applications even looking back on the justifications on the initial awards I don't think they said what weighed most they just listed the factors considered)

My gut feeling is that...
DL will get 2-3 (def LAX)
AA will get 1-2 (def DFW)
UA will get 0-1
 
NH203
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 2:23 pm

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 59):

If UA really ends up without HND access I have a feeling this matter might go to a Federal Court. UA even made the effort to make it clear, that their participation in the application process doesn't mean they accept the DOTs decision to put all slots up for reconsideration.
 
a380787
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 2:29 pm

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 59):

My gut feeling is that...
DL will get 2-3 (def LAX)
AA will get 1-2 (def DFW)
UA will get 0-1

So you're saying SF and NY which has some of the largest Tokyo O&D demands deserves potential no service from a US carrier so we can give it to heavy-connection options like MSP for the sake to level the playing field ?

Regardless of day time vs. night time, it is crystal clear that California deserves far more service than elsewhere. Daytime MSP/DTW has very little evidence it would outperform a daytime SFO.

The DOT followed that line of argument the last time and got egg in their face. There's little reason to believe DL deserves more than 2 slots.
 
jfk777
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 2:30 pm

Quoting NickLAX (Reply 56):
These are people who did this 10+ times a year and no one is looking forward in this crowd of 15 to daytime flights. All said NRT gave them that and Skyliner and shorter Narita Express was acceptable. HND nighttime flights allowed maximum time in Tokyo with minimum downtime.

Then why have the Haneda flights done poorly the last 5 years ? The 2200-0700 window is awful and throws everyone time off. The times just do not work from the conitnental 48 states. Who needs a 0100 departure from HND for LAX or SFO arriving in time for dinner.
 
LAXtoATL
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 2:58 pm

Quoting NH203 (Reply 60):
If UA really ends up without HND access I have a feeling this matter might go to a Federal Court. UA even made the effort to make it clear, that their participation in the application process doesn't mean they accept the DOTs decision to put all slots up for reconsideration.

I highly doubt this would go to Federal Court. For one, it is at the DOT's discretion to make these awards. So, they would almost have to prove corruption or abuse of power to prevail. Ideological differences don't matter since it is at their discretion and they set the criteria they will use to make their decision. UA made it clear they don't agree with the DOT decision, but they are still participating because they have no other choice. Like I said the DOT sets the rules of the game. UA could have gone to Federal Court to ask for an injunction against this proceeding if they felt strongly enough about it, but again on what grounds?

I find it funny that you think it is so unlikely that UA ends up losing SFO-HND, yet you mention how adamant UA opposed the route being reconsidered by the DOT. If they weren't concerned it was a possibility to reason to object.

I'm not saying how likely it is, but I definitely think it is a possibility. And I don't see a Federal case being made out of it either.

Furthermore, UA will NOT be left without HND access regardless of the DOT decision! NH and UA have a metal neutral JV. This means NH access is UA access. They operate as a single entity. And this I believe will play more than a small role in the DOT's decision.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 61):
So you're saying SF and NY which has some of the largest Tokyo O&D demands deserves potential no service from a US carrier so we can give it to heavy-connection options like MSP for the sake to level the playing field ?

Regardless of day time vs. night time, it is crystal clear that California deserves far more service than elsewhere. Daytime MSP/DTW has very little evidence it would outperform a daytime SFO.

The DOT followed that line of argument the last time and got egg in their face. There's little reason to believe DL deserves more than 2 slots.

See above regarding metal neutral JVs. SF and NY will have service and CA will have the most service.

Look, you can't argue the benefits of a anti-trust exempt JV to the DOT and then turn around and say hey you have to consider us individually. That is silly and will fall on deaf ears again. (It won't happen, but if DOT said we will grant your HND award but we will carve this out of your JV - you would see how fast UA and AA would both say neverind we are content with our partners operating on our behalf)

As for DL I think the odds are they get two. But last time they got 50%, it could happen again.
On an alliance basis if DL got 3, they would still have the fewest slots of the three alliances (assuming as reported Japan is giving 4 to NH and 2 to JL and also assuming by the logic of awarding the smallest alliance that AA gets at least one). IMO, the likeliest outcome for DL is two but I think it more likely they get three versus one.
 
a380787
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 3:04 pm

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 63):


As for DL I think the odds are they get two. But last time they got 50%, it could happen again.
On an alliance basis if DL got 3, they would still have the fewest slots of the three alliances (assuming as reported Japan is giving 4 to NH and 2 to JL and also assuming by the logic of awarding the smallest alliance that AA gets at least one). IMO, the likeliest outcome for DL is two but I think it more likely they get three versus one.

Yup, the last time the DOT bought DL's argument and look at the fiasco we got. LAX got 1 service, SFO got none, and we wasted months and months trying to re-work the authorities.

Has it crossed your mind why it was so coincidental that JFK DTW SEA were not on the list of applications at all ? You can scream JV all you want but it's not the DOT's problem that DL failed to find a local JV partner. The objective of the exercise is actually giving authority to where the O&D is actually heading to, not to artificially assist any carrier because they don't have a local partner.
 
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LAXintl
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 3:11 pm

If any incumbent gets their current flights pulled, you better believe there will be litigation.

The DOT decision to upend the historic award process and make everyone reapply was very unique and could be precedent setting if allowed to stand.
History has been, so long as carrier meets service criteria, route awards are theirs to keep. Airlines accordingly make long term business decisions and make investments assuming they can count on stability from knowing they wont lose their traffic rights from one day to another.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
LAXtoATL
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 3:21 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 64):
Yup, the last time the DOT bought DL's argument and look at the fiasco we got. LAX got 1 service, SFO got none, and we wasted months and months trying to re-work the authorities.

Has it crossed your mind why it was so coincidental that JFK DTW SEA were not on the list of applications at all ? You can scream JV all you want but it's not the DOT's problem that DL failed to find a local JV partner. The objective of the exercise is actually giving authority to where the O&D is actually heading to, not to artificially assist any carrier because they don't have a local partner.

I think you misunderstand the DOT's stated purpose in making these awards. They have never stated matching the awards to O&D. In fact it is quite the opposite, they look at connecting markets and giving greater access. Furthermore, they have stated that competitive balance is a concern. I think you are substituting your objective for the DOT's. I'm not screaming JV at all, that is what the DOT said was part of their criteria during the initial award (do you think their philosophy has changed in 5 years? And if so, based on what?)

Maybe you are right that the DOT and DL are no longer of like mind. But what evidence are you using to draw that conclusion? Certainly not the DOT's position to reconsider all current awards (which only DL supported).

Remember, there is only one opinion that matters - the DOT. They set the criteria by which the decision will be made and they make the decision. So you should focus on their stated objectives not what you think the objective should be.
 
jbs2886
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 3:25 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 64):
Has it crossed your mind why it was so coincidental that JFK DTW SEA were not on the list of applications at all ? You can scream JV all you want but it's not the DOT's problem that DL failed to find a local JV partner. The objective of the exercise is actually giving authority to where the O&D is actually heading to, not to artificially assist any carrier because they don't have a local partner.

That is irrelevant; more competition is generally what the DOT wants and broader service. If they "failed to find a local JV partner" were the standard; then the DOT would be creating monopoly markets. So yes, they can whine all they want...it will work.
 
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N717TW
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 3:25 pm

Similarly to the original route of route assignments, the U.S. D.O.T. will wait until the Japanese move first so as to benefit and protect all the US carriers.

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 42):
he one wildcard however, could be the double LAX service that DL and AA have. If maintaining status quo takes place, my bets are a toss up between DL getting ATL or UA getting EWR, with the edge to DL because they are without a Japanese partner. Then they'll overlook HA for the day slot for the proposed HNL/KOA split, but award it in the night slot. If they break up the double LAX situation, then things get wild.

The ATL vs. EWR has more to do with ANA/JAL, I think. If ANA gets NYC-HND then EWR is unlikely...if they pick EWR then forgetaboutit.

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 40):
None of knows what the DOT will decide, but I think it is naive to think DL will walk away with only one daytime HND slot. Giving the opposition by AA, UA, and HA to the DOT reconsidering the previous slot awards... the process is assumed to favor DL. It is almost certainly a factor that AA & UA will be considered in conjunction with JL & NH. I personally think it is a given that DL will continue to operate LAX-HND (I'm not sure how you conclude AAat LAX is a lock and not DL), will they allow AA to operate alongside DL I have no idea but I think DL on LAX-HND is the biggest no brainier. They have operated that route for years, it is a huge market, and without a Japanese JV partner they are considered the underdog in the market.

Do I think the DOT will favor DL? No. Do I expect DL to get 3 of the 6 slots? yes. DOT specifically looked at the ATI/JV operations in the last round and frankly that makes the most sense. This isn't six airlines competing with each other, its four airlines and one of the DOT's goals is to increase competition and provide as much access to as many people as possible. This isn't a 1960s authority division where everyone gets access to NYC and you have PA, TW/NW, and the foreign carriers all duking it out on the same route.

So with 12 departures a day and 25% (or three total departures) likely to be routed to Hawai'i.... it makes sense for the remaining nine to be divided between the three remaining players. If the best odds are AA/JL from LAX, SFO, & NYC and UA/NK from LAX, SFO & NYC, then odds are that DL gets LAX, MSP and ATL. They were smart in that they asked for 2 cities without competition that spurs new service, provides great flow and levels the playing field. Is MSP better than DFW? Probably not (bigger local market in DFW, better flow over MSP); DFW is better than ATL for sure. But this isn't some New England town meeting making the decision based on intellectual arguments. This is very political.

My arguments aside, the MSP bid is odd to me. DL is essentially saying that they are going to pull TYO service if they don't get the route authority. Consequently this isn't growing access but merely replacing capacity. DL hints that ATL could be in a similar situation and that NRT could easily be reduced to 5 or less mainland TPAC routes. While that is an honest statement I'm not sure its a winner. Also, it tells me that NRT as a hub is more or less done. If we play this out, if JL and NK both have non stops from NYC to HND, does DL really, honestly fly to NRT? Then they are left with NRT service from DTW, SEA, maybe LAX and PDX. What this really spells is NRT turning into a scissor hub for deep southeast Asia: LAX-NRT-BKK, SEA-NRT-SIN and DTW-NRT-MNL.
 
LAXtoATL
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 3:34 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 65):
If any incumbent gets their current flights pulled, you better believe there will be litigation.

The DOT decision to upend the historic award process and make everyone reapply was very unique and could be precedent setting if allowed to stand.
History has been, so long as carrier meets service criteria, route awards are theirs to keep. Airlines accordingly make long term business decisions and make investments assuming they can count on stability from knowing they wont lose their traffic rights from one day to another.

DOT is saying this is a new award and thus doesn't change precedent at all. I could see the argument both ways and both arguments would have merit, but since this is the DOT's ball game and they are given discretion to set the rules it would be very difficult to get a verdict against their decision. Might not even proceed to trial.

(Also, if UA were to pursue litigation and succeeded they might find the remedy that they are allowed to keep their existing authority... for night time service. That would be a huge headache to win and still end up with nothing). But I really don't see litigation and i see the chances of prevailing even less. DOT didn't seem too concerned when they ignored the protests and proceeded with their plan to evaluate all available authorities.

* I will say this, and it is just a feeling, I think existing operations will be given some consideration during the evaluation.
 
a380787
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 3:36 pm

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 66):

Remember, there is only one opinion that matters - the DOT. They set the criteria by which the decision will be made and they make the decision. So you should focus on their stated objectives not what you think the objective should be.

Exactly, the same DOT that DL has been screaming "unfair" for months when they failed to have their entire NRT hub moved over to HND. And we expect DOT to reward them with 50% of US-side slots for their behavior ? The same MSP that was threatened with service cancellation with DL's will wasn't met ?

Increasing access also means actual O&D volume, not busy benefiting MSN and XNA at the detriment of SFO.

It's a similar analogy with all the Cuban authorities - MIA/FLL will absolutely be prioritized because that's where the O&D is, not to balance across carriers to artificially give AA/B6 some competition.
 
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LAXintl
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 3:47 pm

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 69):
it would be very difficult to get a verdict against their decision.

Not at all. That is why we have a Federal court system where U.S agencies are sued regularly. Regulatory process by its nature is subject to opposition and outside oversight by courts.

Over the decades there have many times when courts have overturned DOT decisions. Going back to CAB days, the courts even invalidated Presidents route decision reversal. (at the time White House would sign off on route awards).
There was actually a period from the late 1960s to early 1980s, when many route cases ended up in court.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
LAXtoATL
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 3:59 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 70):
Exactly, the same DOT that DL has been screaming "unfair" for months when they failed to have their entire NRT hub moved over to HND. And we expect DOT to reward them with 50% of US-side slots for their behavior ? The same MSP that was threatened with service cancellation with DL's will wasn't met ?

Really??? You do realize that was just posturing.
And they made no such request to the DOT. Their request to the DOT is for 3 authorities at LAX, MSP, and ATL.
What behavior by DL do you think the DOT would find so offensive? It is the other carriers that are opposing the DOT's authority in how they decide the process for this award not DL. At this point the only carriers on record at odds with the DOT regarding this matter are AA, UA, and HA.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 55):
Regarding the Japanese side, do we KNOW whether the split is 3/3 or 4/2 ? That makes a world of difference regarding whether EWR or DFW has a chance

This is interesting that you acknowledge that the Japanese side will play a role in the decision making process then turnaround and say it will have no bearing on the allocation. ???

I am curious, what routes do see ultimately operated by AA+JL?, UA+NH?, DL?, HA?

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 71):
Not at all. That is why we have a Federal court system where U.S agencies are sued regularly. Regulatory process by its nature is subject to opposition and outside oversight by courts

Yes, but you have to have a legal argument. I don't think they can make the claim that DOT exceeding their authority. Clearly they have the right to award new route authorities at their discretion. So, the only real argument would be that they didn't have the authority to remove an existing award. It becomes a debate whether these are new authorities or existing ones. The DOT says they are issuing new awards. As a matter of law I don't see a court weighing in on what is largely a matter of opinion and DOT's opinion carries more weight than a carrier's.
 
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jetblastdubai
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 4:47 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 61):
for the sake to level the playing field ?

   Good question. Is the DOT making these awards based on the best overall US public benefit or are they awarding routes as a way of artificially propping up a carrier just because it doesn't have a marketing partner in the region?

If EWR or DFW service provide more public benefit than KOA or MSP, it'd be odd to pass them over if the DOT mission is to promote public benefit first and foremost.
 
a380787
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 4:52 pm

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 72):

Really??? You do realize that was just posturing.
DL tried lots of posturing during their SEA-HND retention battle and got them nowhere.

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 72):

I am curious, what routes do see ultimately operated by AA+JL?, UA+NH?, DL?, HA?

It really depends on whether the Japanese side allocation is 3/3 or 4/2. Without that knowledge, everything is blind speculation. IF the Japanese side is really 4/2, then I concur that UA only deserves SFO. Here are my PURE guesses based on 4/2 or 3/3 split.

Japanese 4/2 split scenario :
5 UA SFO NH LAX HNL JFK ORD
4 AA LAX DFW JL SFO HNL
2 DL LAX ATL
1 HA HNL

Japanese 3/3 split scenario :
5 UA SFO EWR NH LAX HNL JFK, sacrificing ORD
4 AA LAX JL SFO HNL DFW, sacrificing JFK
2 DL LAX ATL
1 HA HNL

[Edited 2016-04-22 09:53:57]
 
ldvaviation
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 5:21 pm

Quoting FSDan (Reply 58):
I don't know about that... When looking at just HND, DL is the only one of the three without a Japanese JV partner. Since the JV partners are also receiving additional slots, that puts DL at a distinct disadvantage. I can't see the DOT giving DL fewer than two awards. Am I wrong in thinking that AA would have no problem adding flights to NRT and other airports in Japan to catch up to DL and UA if they really wanted to?


You've assumed that having an alliance partner makes a big difference. Last time, the DOT did as well.

But is that actually the case. AA is saying it has made no difference. It has done very little to erase the structural disadvantages AA has had. Just look at the numbers.

One way or another, the DOT will have to consider this argument and either affirm or rebut it. To rebut AA's argument, the DOT is now put in the position of saying something like this --- Yeah, we recognize that DL remains much larger in the market even after accounting for alliance share, but still we think that not having an alliance partner puts them at a greater disadvantage even if the numbers don't show it. Not so rational of an argument anymore.

If I were AA's lawyers, I think I also would have reused the argument they made last time. They simply did not make it strongly enough. I don't think they even presented the facts of Delta's attempt to lure JAL into SkyTeam. At the very least, AA should force the DOT to make a policy statement as to what it would do in the event of an airline switching alliances.

There is also this. Delta has played games with these authorities before. If it is at a such a disadvantage to the two others, why is that the case? That is more in line with the behavior of a monopolist who is trying to hoard scarce resources and keep others from competing. Again, AA needs to make that argument. It touches on these facts in its application, but it has yet to draw the appropriate philosophical conclusions that might persuade the DOT.
 
tortugamon
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 5:23 pm

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 47):
If AA's case was so strong at LAX you would think hey would have won the original award instead of DL and not just recently getting the authority after DL gave it back

I can't see them removing someone who is operating the route. Maybe AA/DL will get a night slot and a day slot. Preventing someone from starting a route that they want is one thing...preventing someone who is already operating it is quite another.

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 47):
Since AA's only existing route is LAX and they opposed the re-awarding I think it is clear they believe that route is very much in jeopardy, but DL doesn't seem to have that concern.

DL doesn't have much to lose. They have been throwing a pitty party for a bit around NRT so I definitely see them interested in mixing it up as much as possible.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 61):
So you're saying SF and NY which has some of the largest Tokyo O&D demands deserves potential no service from a US carrier so we can give it to heavy-connection options like MSP for the sake to level the playing field ?

Agreed. That doesn't make sense. I can't see SF and NYC not getting daytime service.

Quoting N717TW (Reply 68):
No. Do I expect DL to get 3 of the 6 slots? yes.

I see zero rationale for that. I can't see MSP and ATL instead of NYC or SFO. Just can't see it.

tortugamon
 
LAXtoATL
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 5:33 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 74):
DL tried lots of posturing during their SEA-HND retention battle and got them nowhere.

DL was allowed to retain SEA.
They eventually just gave up on it. In fac even with the option of daytime slots they have no interest in pursuing SEA service. DOT did however give them every opportunity to make it work.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 74):
It really depends on whether the Japanese side allocation is 3/3 or 4/2. Without that knowledge, everything is blind speculation. IF the Japanese side is really 4/2, then I concur that UA only deserves SFO. Here are my PURE guesses based on 4/2 or 3/3 split.

Japanese 4/2 split scenario :
5 UA SFO NH LAX HNL JFK ORD
4 AA LAX DFW JL SFO HNL
2 DL LAX ATL
1 HA HNL

Japanese 3/3 split scenario :
5 UA SFO EWR NH LAX HNL JFK, sacrificing ORD
4 AA LAX JL SFO HNL DFW, sacrificing JFK
2 DL LAX ATL
1 HA HNL

[Edited 2016-04-22 09:53:57]

1) So, you actually agree with me that DL will get two.

2) You really think DOT will see public benefit in UA/NH operating two NYC flights while the Midwest has no service? I think that is where a third DL award for MSP could come into play.

3) I think DOT might be fine with all three carriers operating service to LAX. But I also see a possibility that they don't. I could also see them relegating one of those LAX flights to nighttime if there will be 3.

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 73):
  Good question. Is the DOT making these awards based on the best overall US public benefit or are they awarding routes as a way of artificially propping up a carrier just because it doesn't have a marketing partner in the region?

It is not about propping up a carrier but promoting healthy competition which is in the best interest of the US traveling public. If a carrier already has an advantage of JV partner, you certainly want to consider balancing that with these awards which are assumed to be an advantage as well. They do not want to create an unbalanced market where one or two carriers have the advantage in the marketplace and you have a monopoly or duopoly.

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 73):
If EWR or DFW service provide more public benefit than KOA or MSP, it'd be odd to pass them over if the DOT mission is to promote public benefit first and foremost.

These cities won't be considered in a bubble. There is more to public benefit than which city has the most O&D or business links. Which one-stop markets have easy and reasonable access to the city? How many of those markets have alternative one-stop options? How many competitors will be competiting on price in those markets? Does the city itself have an alternate one-stop option? On the same carrier or another carrier? Etc.
 
LAXtoATL
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri Apr 22, 2016 5:54 pm

Quoting ldvaviation (Reply 75):
f I were AA's lawyers, I think I also would have reused the argument they made last time. They simply did not make it strongly enough. I don't think they even presented the facts of Delta's attempt to lure JAL into SkyTeam. At the very least, AA should force the DOT to make a policy statement as to what it would do in the event of an airline switching alliances.

With the JV in place that is so unlikely of a possibility now I don't think it warrants distracting from stronger arguments.
Besides, if we were to go down that road, the DOT could address it if a new JV were proposed and condition approval on such remedies. If it were a simple alliance shift, DL and JL would remain competitors. Still the whole scenario is so remote at this point I don't think it is worth wasting time on a distracting from what could be much stronger arguments in their favor.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 76):
I can't see them removing someone who is operating the route. Maybe AA/DL will get a night slot and a day slot. Preventing someone from starting a route that they want is one thing...preventing someone who is already operating it is quite another.

Remember, the DOT's position is that these will be considered as new routes. However, I do believe they will give some consideration to existing routes. I agree with you that awarding one of the LAX routes as a night authority is reasonable and likely outcome (especially if we end up with three carriers on HND-LAX)

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 76):
DL doesn't have much to lose. They have been throwing a pitty party for a bit around NRT so I definitely see them interested in mixing it up as much as possible

I agree. But if it benefits DL, it has to come at the expense of AA and/or UA. I don't think there is any other reasonable interpretation that the DOT's proposed process favors DL at the expense of AA, UA, and HA. They certainly saw it that way and opposed it. The DOT's final decision might not go that way, but everybody seems to agree the process favors DL.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 76):
hat doesn't make sense. I can't see SF and NYC not getting daytime service.

They will absolutely have service! This is without question.
It is naive to consider these authorities without including NH & JL that literally operate as a single coordinated entity with UA & AA respectively on TPAC routes.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 76):

I see zero rationale for that. I can't see MSP and ATL instead

See above. It wouldn't be instead, but in addition to.

*Let's remember, that when UA (or any carrier) submitted their JV application they stated the public benefit of being able to operate as a single entity and offer more options. You can't or shouldn't think the DOT will now not consider those options. This is exactly (supposedly) why you have a JV. Anything operated by NH is as far as DOT is concerned a UA operation.
 
klwright69
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Sat Apr 23, 2016 6:02 am

Well, I think we still have to remember that the incumbents will still have their NRT flights. It's not like the midwest won't have any flights to Tokyo at all if they don't get Haneda access.

With such few slots available, who can actually see MSP prevailing over SFO, LAX, ATL, DFW, HNL, and EWR? MSP prevailing over any of these mega markets? I just don't see it. I can see California having more than one Haneda flight and MSP not receiving it, certainly. California has 3 flights now on US carriers.

Since Hawaiian is so successful with nighttime flights, and no one else seems to want them, they may just keep the nighttime.

I know there is an argument on here that UA might not get a Haneda award. I find this quite hard to believe. Ultimately no one here has an inside track into the process. But UA is an incumbent carrier at Haneda. They might get stuck with the night flight, or even moving the flight to EWR, who knows? We don't. But loosing all service on their own metal seems unlikely. Removing an incumbent for no valid reason, or saying that San Francisco flights don't serve the public interest. One flight isn't a lot.

Since they opened up Haneda to US carriers for night time flights, the process was a total mess since the flights were at unpopular times. I guess the DOT wanted to start fresh. This being said, I doubt UA will completely lose their one flight from a very good market as well.

I do find it interesting a US carrier didn't propose a JFK flight or an ORD flight.

[Edited 2016-04-22 23:30:26]

[Edited 2016-04-22 23:31:39]
 
LAXtoATL
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Sat Apr 23, 2016 10:06 am

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 79):
But loosing all service on their own metal seems unlikely.

I personally think UA will end up with one of the awards.

But remember, the DOT is not likely to make any decision based on 'own metal'.
Anti-trust immunized JVs are awarded specifically to make the partnership metal neutral.
That is the reason during the initial awards UA didn't receive any slots on its own metal, because NH had two on its behalf.
Under the JV, a NH is a UA flight in everything except the name on the plane. We are not talking about a codeshare operation.
The difference this time is that there are 6 available instead of 4. I believe UA will get one but I do see a possibility for none (in fact I see none more likely than two).

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 79):
I do find it interesting a US carrier didn't propose a JFK flight or an ORD flight.

You can bet that a large reason behind that is that they are considering JV operations in their submissions.
 
klwright69
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Sat Apr 23, 2016 12:58 pm

For the night time slots what were the original 4 winners? What year were these awarded?
I recall one of them was JFK on AA. I remember UA got their allocation much later.
 
a380787
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Sat Apr 23, 2016 1:50 pm

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 77):

I only agree with DL getting 2 not 3, which was what you were pushing for.

Regarding the Midwest thing, so you're okay with so many Cali services but upset about NYC ? You do know that NYC + northeast has far more Tokyo and Japan O&D than the entire Midwest combined ? EWR also has roughly the same connectivity as MSP so that's a wash argument.

If geographic split is so important then we should give every region 1 flight at the detriment of the real O&D centers like LA NY SF ... which coincidentally, benefits the airline that doesn't hub in all 3.
 
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Polot
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Sat Apr 23, 2016 1:55 pm

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 81):
For the night time slots what were the original 4 winners? What year were these awarded?

HA: HNL
DL: DTW & LAX
AA: JFK

Awarded in 2010.
 
LAXtoATL
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Sat Apr 23, 2016 4:21 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 82):
Regarding the Midwest thing, so you're okay with so many Cali services but upset about NYC ? You do know that NYC + northeast has far more Tokyo and Japan O&D than the entire Midwest combined ? EWR also has roughly the same connectivity as MSP so that's a wash argument.

If geographic split is so important then we should give every region 1 flight at the detriment of the real O&D centers like LA NY SF ... which coincidentally, benefits the airline that doesn't hub in all 3.

I think you are missing my point.
All the O&D are and will be covered. Name one that is covered?

As for NYC versus Midwest... It is not a matter of city versus city. It is about competitive balance. I absolutely believe the DOT would give DL MSP before they give UA/NH 2 NYC flights! As for the northeast, MSP service would also offer one-stop competition in that market as well as the Midwest.

It is not my contention, but the DOT that says they want to provide service to as broad a range of people / country as possible. The big O&D centers will absolutely all have 1 and possibly two HND flights as well as service to NRT. The DOT will be looking to balance service as much as possible (across geography as well as carriers)
 
MSPNWA
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Sat Apr 23, 2016 5:52 pm

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 77):
2) You really think DOT will see public benefit in UA/NH operating two NYC flights while the Midwest has no service? I think that is where a third DL award for MSP could come into play.

Let's say EWR and MSP are an either/or situation.

EWR-HND on UA offers connectivity on both ends, greatly benefiting the populous NE and Eastern Seaboard and adds/diversifies service to the largest O&D market outside of California. NH at JFK does little for the U.S. consumer outside of the immediate JFK area. It shouldn't restrict UA's EWR application.

MSP-HND offers no connectivity beyond Japan for the light O&D Midwest region, and the flight that does, MSP-NRT, will undoubtedly go away. The very viability of MSP-HND is a question mark. The net gain for U.S. consumers is low to negative.

That's why the DOT needs to stop trying "level the playing field". It has been counterproductive before and it will be again. I doubt they will change course though. They will cater to the whining widget.
 
tortugamon
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Sat Apr 23, 2016 6:35 pm

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 79):
I do find it interesting a US carrier didn't propose a JFK flight or an ORD flight.

I think the Japanese carriers will cover that.

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 84):
It is not a matter of city versus city. It is about competitive balance.

Actually I think its about what offering brings the most value to the US traveling public without giving any particular carrier an unfair advantage. I don't think competitive balance is the goal, its one benchmark sure.

NYC is inherently more valuable to the flying public than MSP is.

tortugamon
 
LAXtoATL
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Sat Apr 23, 2016 6:40 pm

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 85):

I don't disagree. But there is still benefit in having another competitor, as that usually keeps fares dampered.

I also think the DOT might take the position that if UA/NH want to serve connecting markets instead of just O&D they should move the flight to EWR.
I never thought about this until you brought it up, but actually I now would assume if NH would apply for NYC they would do EWR instead of JFK. It doesn't make sense for them to fly to JFK with a massive hub a few miles away. That was proposed by another poster (and I never thought it).
 
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bluefltspecial
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Sat Apr 23, 2016 9:00 pm

I'm surprised that with the huge hub Delta now has at JFK they didn't apply for a JFK-HND daytime slot.
Save a horse, ride a Fly-boy....
 
tortugamon
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Sat Apr 23, 2016 9:12 pm

Quoting bluefltspecial (Reply 88):
I'm surprised that with the huge hub Delta now has at JFK they didn't apply for a JFK-HND daytime slot.

My guess is that they know they will have NH/JAL on that route who will be getting feed on both ends and that was too much competition vs their virtual ownership of MSP and ATL. I agree that I found it surprising as well.

tortugamon
 
LawnDart
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Sat Apr 23, 2016 9:29 pm

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 85):
MSP-HND offers no connectivity beyond Japan for the light O&D Midwest region, and the flight that does, MSP-NRT, will undoubtedly go away. The very viability of MSP-HND is a question mark. The net gain for U.S. consumers is low to negative.

Low to NEGATIVE? How is that even possible?!?

From the Pacific, MSP actually serves the eastern half of the United States, not just the midwest. One could argue that it has a larger "catchment" area than EWR. And interline agreements should allow for a teensy little bit of connectivity beyond HND.

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 85):
They will cater to the whining widget.

Oh, hey... a negative remark about DL from you. Surprising.  
 
commavia
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Sat Apr 23, 2016 10:01 pm

Quoting NickLAX (Reply 56):
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 21):
AA53 DFW-HND 1105-1415 772
AA52 HND-DFW 1830-1615 772

Glad AA learned its lesson about not assigning overlapping flight numbers with existing NRT flights, thus preventing Delta from using the argument as a distracting sideshow a la LAX-HND.

That said, it seems like the careful wording of AA's application - that unlike some other applications, AA flying DFW-HND would not lead to the "cessation" of DFW-NRT just serves to highlight that AA didn't use the word "reduction," and thus - I think - making clear what economic and market reality would seem to imply, which is that of course AA flying DFW-NRT would almost certainly come at the expense of one of the existing daily DFW-NRT flights.

I see no realistic way that DFW could support four daily flights to TYO on top of almost five additionally daily flights to four other cities in East Asia. And actually, a joint AA/JAL schedule DFW-TYO with a new DFW-HND could end up working out quite well, with AA shifting 175/176 to HND, thus leaving JAL to handle the late morning eastbound out of NRT and AA then operating evening eastbounds out of both airports.

Quoting NickLAX (Reply 56):
Sitting in HND right now talking to some regulars on the AA, NH and DL LAX flights. The AA and DL regulars not happy with daytime switch and are honestly contemplating not even bothering on using these flights and going to other Asia destinations first to maximize time in region - the proposed daytime slots are great for those who don't care about limiting dead time on a Tokyo trip. Arriving in the afternoon means no real time for customer meetings - leaving early evening means a mid afternoon cut off on meetings. These are people who did this 10+ times a year and no one is looking forward in this crowd of 15 to daytime flights. All said NRT gave them that and Skyliner and shorter Narita Express was acceptable. HND nighttime flights allowed maximum time in Tokyo with minimum downtime.

While I agree with others that overall consumer preference - individual opinions/experiences notwithstanding - is generally going to be for flights earlier than 2200-0100 eastbound, I still find it interesting to consider whether or not AA could and/or should find a happy medium in between the standard eastbound times out of NRT and the current HND schedules. Specifically, I think it would be interesting to consider an eastbound HND-LAX flight that leaves around, say, 1900-2200. It would still offer ample connecting opportunity from throughout JAL's domestic network, provide some schedule variety compared to the existing AA/JAL NRT-LAX schedules, and also give those doing business in Tokyo some more time before having to head to the airport. Plus, perhaps most intriguingly, and unlike the existing TYO-LAX schedules, it would feed into the wide array of connections AA is now scheduling in its ~1700-1800 outbound "bank" out of LAX.
 
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Pohakuloa
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Sun Apr 24, 2016 2:57 pm

In regards to someone asking why HA would even bother asking for a daylight slot when their proposal moved up their current flight to HND by just 2-3 hours, I imagine that this allows for the traveling public from the US side to be able to connect in HNL from their mainland Hawaii flights giving less connecting time on the ground (making it more attractive than before without the long layover) and possibly bring in more passengers from the mainland US another option to get to Japan. This would also show a greater benefit to the traveling public on the US side showing this option as possible. The cost compared to other options shouldn't be an argument for posters here (though it's anet and of course it will be) as it is creating options to benefit the American traveling public which is the sole focus of the DOT's stated route allocation - the benefit of the American traveling public.

The earlier arrival in HND also would enable arrivals to utilize the public transportation services before they are shut down for the night, another gripe many had when original route allocations were sought as time slots were too late to utilize the services. Also on the return, the proposed times also would allow ample time for onward connections for mainland transiting passengers. Again benefiting the American traveling public greater than schedules allowed before. It also allows for a longer first day on vacation for the O&D vacationers coming into Hawaii allowing that extra time and first day enthusiasm to rub off on their spending ability, thus adding to economic impact of the flight.

  

Another thing that caught my eye regarding AA's arguments that LAXintl posted in reply 32:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 32):
o DFW best placed U.S.hub to offer competitive Latin American-Japan links

Would this argument not potentially work against the premise of the allocation benefiting the traveling American public by touting links for two regions that would benefit from the route other than the US? Just a passing observation.

Repectfully,

Pohakuloa
Fast cars and 'Jet A' - such a sweet smell!
 
a380787
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Sun Apr 24, 2016 3:37 pm

Quoting LawnDart (Reply 90):

But most of that MSP "catchment" is connection based while EWR can deliver actual local O&D multiple orders of magnitude larger than MSP's own PDEW.

There's also far more inbound Japanese traffic heading to NY than to MSP, which balances out point of sale distribution and acts as a good hedge against forex movements.
 
klwright69
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Sun Apr 24, 2016 5:52 pm

I would be quite surprised if MSP received an award. I just don't see it prevailing over EWR, SFO, LAX, DFW, ATL, and ATL or even KOA.

It's not as if NRT is shutting down.
 
boilerla
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Sun Apr 24, 2016 6:44 pm

Quoting LawnDart (Reply 90):
From the Pacific, MSP actually serves the eastern half of the United States, not just the midwest. One could argue that it has a larger "catchment" area than EWR. And interline agreements should allow for a teensy little bit of connectivity beyond HND.

Sure, if it lasts. A purely connection-based long haul route will be very yield sensitive; if the yen strengthens, a bird-flu type outbreak occurs, etc. then suddenly that 12 hour flight goes on fire sale and flights like MSP-HND are the first to go. And then DL goes crawling back to the DOT asking to switch the flight to something else, and we start the process all over again.
 
klwright69
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Mon Apr 25, 2016 5:20 pm

I have always been fascinated by the unpopularity of these Haneda night time flights.
Of course UA publishes their seat maps online. I know ...I know.. I know about the limitations of viewing online seat maps.
But I find it interesting that UA's Haneda-SFO flight, the vampire flight leaving at around 12:15 a.m., is usually packed to the gills.

However the westbound evening departure (7:20 p.m.) from SFO often has extremely light loads. VERY light loads.

In another thread further up another commented that AA had decent loads to Haneda.

Another commented in this thread that the late night flights serve some travelers well.

It is interesting the disparity.. Of course I am not commenting about the fares or yields or any of that. It is just clear that the late departure from Haneda is more popular than the evening SFO departure. The difference is shocking if you look at it over the course of time.

Is it all due to the lack of public transport upon arrival in Haneda?
 
IAHWorldflyer
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Mon Apr 25, 2016 8:46 pm

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 96):
Is it all due to the lack of public transport upon arrival in Haneda?

I would suspect some of it is, yes. If you can get to HND before the trains shut down at midnight, you're only a 500-600 Yen train or monorail ride into cental Tokyo. If you arrive after midnight, a taxi, even from "close in" Haneda will cost you in the range of US$50. It's a major difference. Then again, biz travellers can expense it to their company, but for some travellers, it's an issue.

On a side note, does anyone reading this know what year the former Northwest Orient started n/s service from MSP to TYO? I'm thinking mid-1970's, but I really don't know.
 
musashino
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Tue Apr 26, 2016 4:49 am

Japan's MLIT has just announced the distribution of slots at Haneda for NH/JL and it will be 4:2 in favor of NH. NH will get 3 daytime and 1 nighttime while JL will get 2 daytime slots.

Given this new development, expect that the DOT will base their decisions on how the slots were distributed on the Japan side and their alliances. So it is highly possible that the distribution will be as follows with worse case scenario if DOT will push for equitable allocation based on alliance. Just my 2 yens.  

Daytime:

US:
DL x 2 (LAX & MSP) or DL x 3
AA x 2 (LAX & DFW)
UA x 1 (SFO/EWR) or UA x 0

JP:
NH x 3 (JFK & ORD & LAX/IAD)
JL x 2 (JFK & SFO/ORD/BOS)

Nightime:

HA x 1 (HNL)
NH x 1 (HNL/LAX)

[Edited 2016-04-25 21:52:15]

[Edited 2016-04-25 21:52:33]
 
klwright69
Posts: 2702
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Tue Apr 26, 2016 11:49 am

Quoting musashino (Reply 98):
US:
DL x 2 (LAX & MSP) or DL x 3
AA x 2 (LAX & DFW)
UA x 1 (SFO/EWR) or UA x 0

Well, if what are you saying is correct and Japanese carriers get daytime slots to JFK, then there is a good chance UA will just get a daytime flight from SFO. I don't believe DL will get MSP and UA loses SFO and loses access. It ain't gonna happen. Maybe DL will get ATL over MSP though.

Again, I find it strange that Haneda to SFO is packed, while SFO to Haneda is frequently close to empty. These late night flights from Haneda seemed to be heavily used by travelers at least on UA.
 
hkcanadaexpat
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Tue Apr 26, 2016 12:02 pm

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 99):
Well, if what are you saying is correct and Japanese carriers get daytime slots to JFK, then there is a good chance UA will just get a daytime flight from SFO. I don't believe DL will get MSP and UA loses SFO and loses access. It ain't gonna happen. Maybe DL will get ATL over MSP though.

I don't think its as black and white as that. The Japanese authorities didn't grant routes, just slots. in the US, its slots and route. So what will happen in practice is that the Japanese carriers will decide routes based on what their partners are granted in the US.

But i agree that yes, United is the biggest loser of the Japanese allocation as DOT will take into consideration joint ventures as part of its allocation process. Delta is likely the winner.

By alliance, the result is very likely to be:

UA (1D): SFO
NH (3D): JFK/ORD/LAX
NH (1N): HNL

AA (2D): LAX/DFW
JL (2D): JFK/ORD or SFO

DL (2D): LAX/MSP or ATL

HA (1N): HNL

The only other iteration that i can see DOT take is give (1D) to Hawaiian and leave UA (1N) for SFO. That's not completely out of the realm of possibility. We'll see soon enough.

A

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