a380787
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Tue Apr 26, 2016 12:11 pm

The confirmed 4/2 split has exponentially increased the chance of DFW happening at the sole expense of EWR.
 
DFWEagle
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Tue Apr 26, 2016 12:12 pm

Quoting musashino (Reply 98):
Japan's MLIT has just announced the distribution of slots at Haneda for NH/JL and it will be 4:2 in favor of NH. NH will get 3 daytime and 1 nighttime while JL will get 2 daytime slots.

For those interested, here is the source on the MLIT website (Japanese), and also reported by multiple news outlets in Japan.

http://www.mlit.go.jp/report/press/kouku04_hh_000134.html

So, ANA takes 4 slots and JAL only 2.

Since NH will have 4x slot pairs, this will make United's case much more difficult to argue. If UA were awarded 2 slot pairs as they requested, the UA/NH joint venture would have more than AA, JL and DL combined. It is hard to see how it can be in the public interest to award one competitor such a dominant position in a critical market like HND. Also, it's practically certain that ANA (and therefore United) will have a presence in the New York to Haneda market, and probably Chicago/Midwest too.

AA's DFW-HND proposal (alongside LAX-HND) is looking like it has a lot better chance now.
Ryan in DFW
 
commavia
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Tue Apr 26, 2016 12:28 pm

Quoting musashino (Reply 98):
Japan's MLIT has just announced the distribution of slots at Haneda for NH/JL and it will be 4:2 in favor of NH.

Wow - the Japanese government is really making JAL pay for the bailout.

Quoting musashino (Reply 98):
JL x 2 (JFK & SFO/ORD/BOS)

I sincerely hope that this will drive JAL to dispense with SFO-HND and leave it to ANA/United which naturally ought to dominate that market. With two daily HND-U.S. flights, JAL should consolidate Hawaii back at NRT, shift JL1/2 back to NRT with a schedule optimized for the hub banks (~1700 NRT departure, ~1300 SFO departure) and refocus both of the scarce HND-U.S. flights on oneworld hubs.

Quoting hkcanadaexpat (Reply 100):
AA (2D): LAX/DFW
JL (2D): JFK/ORD

Personally, the above is exactly what I hope happens if AA gets two daily HND flights.

More broadly, I think AA/JAL should use this as an opportunity to realign and optimize their U.S.-TYO schedules to make maximum use of the unique strengths of both HND and NRT.

Specifically, if AA does, indeed, get DFW-HND, it should shift AA175/176 to that route and drop AA's morning eastbound out of NRT (and accompanying NRT 777 RON) now that JAL has a 787 flying almost wingtip-to-wingtip with 176 out of NRT. Similarly, JAL should shift JL5/6 JFK and JL9/10 ORD to HND, providing a nice balance of morning HND-U.S. flights on JAL and evening U.S. flights on AA, and thus keeping a single daily AA or JAL departure from NRT to both JFK (JL4) and ORD (AA154) as well, but timed optimally for the afternoon/evening connecting bank.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 101):
The confirmed 4/2 split has exponentially increased the chance of DFW happening at the sole expense of EWR.
Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 102):
AA's DFW-HND proposal (alongside LAX-HND) is looking like it has a lot better chance now.

  

Completely agree. What the oneworld JV lost on the Japan side it quite possibly now will get back from the U.S. side - I think this dramatically improves AA's chances of getting at least one, if not both, of its requested daytime HND allocations which, when coupled with JAL's two daytime HND allocations, would still provide a respectable 3-4 daily HND-U.S. daytime flights for oneworld.

[Edited 2016-04-26 05:31:10]
 
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jetblastdubai
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Tue Apr 26, 2016 1:15 pm

..

Quoting hkcanadaexpat (Reply 100):
AA (2D): LAX/DFW
JL (2D): JFK/ORD or SFO

DL (2D): LAX/MSP or ATL

HA (1N): HNL

If the DOT has a goal/requirement to promote competition and equality among carriers as some have suggested...

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 84):
The DOT will be looking to balance service as much as possible (across geography as well as carriers)

then it would be tough to award AA and/or DL 2 daytime routes while awarding HA none would it not?
 
commavia
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Tue Apr 26, 2016 1:27 pm

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 104):
then it would be tough to award AA and/or DL 2 daytime routes while awarding HA none would it not?

All three of the mainland carriers - AA, Delta and United - already have or almost certainly will argue that Hawaiian is the applicant for whom moving to a daytime slot is the least important given that it's the shortest stage length, the most O&D- and leisure-focused, and the least-U.S. point of sale (POS), all of which is true.

Personally, I tend to agree with that line of thinking. Giving Hawaiian the opportunity to move their flight up by a few hours so (primarily) Japanese tourists can arrive at their resorts on Waikiki a few hours earlier doesn't strike me as maximizing the benefits of broader HND access for the United States. But of course my opinion doesn't matter - we'll see how compelling such arguments ultimately are with the DOT.
 
aa1818
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Tue Apr 26, 2016 2:40 pm

So quick question, the existing allocation of

AA- LAX
JL- SFO, HNL

UA- SFO
NH- LAX, HNL

DL- LAX

HA- HNL

is being scrapped and a new allocation is being drawn up?
The original 4 slots on the US side and 4 slots on the Japan side are being increased to 6 each or by 6 each to 10 slots each side total?
Sorry if this has been covered off already, I'm late to the party and scrolled through the previous posts but didn't see this (potentially stupid) question.

AA1818
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a380787
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Tue Apr 26, 2016 2:43 pm

Quoting aa1818 (Reply 106):

The original 4 slots on the US side and 4 slots on the Japan side are being increased to 6 each or by 6 each to 10 slots each side total?

only 6 total each side, 12 total combined. current consensus is maybe Star 4-5 oneworld 4 Skyteam 2-3 and Unaligned 1
 
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LAXintl
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Tue Apr 26, 2016 6:17 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 103):
ow - the Japanese government is really making JAL pay for the bailout.

Its far beyond the BK.

There has been many decades of institutional favoritism towards JAL even after the government privatized it in the 1980s and allowed ANA to fly overseas. Everything from route rights to airport facilities to government travel contract awards, NH has often found itself handicapped.

Only under more recent liberal economic policies have current government decided to help reward private enterprise ANA with additional rights in attempt to rebalance and counter the decades of bias it suffered from.
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aa1818
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Tue Apr 26, 2016 9:04 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 107):
only 6 total each side, 12 total combined. current consensus is maybe Star 4-5 oneworld 4 Skyteam 2-3 and Unaligned 1

Thanks for that clarification.

Odd that the existing 4 on each side that are allocated could re-allocated. You'd think they would simply now allocate the additional 2 on each side.

Cheers,
AA1818
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Wed Apr 27, 2016 12:09 am

ANA will almost certainly fly HND-ORD and probably HND-JFK. UA didn't apply for ORD-HND knowing NH would. JL is the interesting one. I think they will go for JFK and ORD as well as I expect AA to get LAX and DFW. This would work well with the JV and AA could adjust ORD-NRT to leave earlier.
 
klkla
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Wed Apr 27, 2016 1:30 am

When will we know the routes JL and NH plan to fly?
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Wed Apr 27, 2016 2:14 am

Quoting klkla (Reply 111):
When will we know the routes JL and NH plan to fly?

After DOT allocation. JV partners will adjust routes accordingly to maximise exposure to key markets.
A
 
Carpethead
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Wed Apr 27, 2016 11:45 am

Quoting klkla (Reply 111):
When will we know the routes JL and NH plan to fly?

Maybe tomorrow, but after that it will be the holidays here in Japan, so week of May 9?

My bet will be NH will move:
1) NH 10/NH103 on NRT-JFK-NRT to HND
2) NH 12/NH 113 on NRT-ORD-NRT to HND
3) Either LAX or HNL will be a night slot. The current LAX time slot works pretty good then the HNL flight will be moved up an hour or too.

Also, its possible that NH will start a NRT-EWR-NRT on a 787 with a morning departure out of NRT to replace the vacated NRT-JFK slot.


JL with its two daytime slots could do a number of things:
1) Move both SFO/HNL back to NRT and have HND-JFK & ORD
2) Just move SFO/HNL to daytime
3) or combination of the above
 
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N717TW
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Wed Apr 27, 2016 1:14 pm

If NH is granted 4 slots and there are a total of 12, why do we expect UA to get even 1? In the original slot distribution, the DoT went out of its way to be fair/equal. It just seems odd to me that one airline JV would be granted so much more advantage over the others. Especially when you consider that UA is the largest overall TPAC carrier and that UA/NH (remember, one airline) is the #1 airline for US-JP local traffic.
 
a380787
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Wed Apr 27, 2016 1:34 pm

Quoting N717TW (Reply 114):


If NH is granted 4 slots and there are a total of 12, why do we expect UA to get even 1? In the original slot distribution, the DoT went out of its way to be fair/equal. It just seems odd to me that one airline JV would be granted so much more advantage over the others. Especially when you consider that UA is the largest overall TPAC carrier and that UA/NH (remember, one airline) is the #1 airline for US-JP local traffic.

There's also one airline that squandered all the goodwill when they were granted more than 1 the last time and made constant complaints and fuss with DOT and with the competition.

They call it "posturing" but I call it "how to tell who's the adult in the room"
 
klwright69
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 28, 2016 3:10 am

Quoting N717TW (Reply 114):
If NH is granted 4 slots and there are a total of 12, why do we expect UA to get even 1? In the original slot distribution, the DoT went out of its way to be fair/equal. It just seems odd to me that one airline JV would be granted so much more advantage over the others. Especially when you consider that UA is the largest overall TPAC carrier and that UA/NH (remember, one airline) is the #1 airline for US-JP local traffic.

Well, 4 out of 12 is not a lot. It's 1/3. It's not even one half. With 6 slots in the US side, I am sure UA will be left with at least one, likely the flight they currently operate. It would be unprecedented to remove an incumbent airline.
 
HeeseokKoo
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 28, 2016 3:22 am

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 113):
3) Either LAX or HNL will be a night slot. The current LAX time slot works pretty good then the HNL flight will be moved up an hour or too.

If slot-cross is allowed, NH would do this using one daytime and one night slots:

HND-HNL-HND: 10pm-1030am // 1230pm-420pm+1
HND-LAX-HND: 7pm-1pm // 120am-500am+1

With this, late night arrival into Haneda can be avoided.
 
Carpethead
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu Apr 28, 2016 12:06 pm

Quoting HeeseokKoo (Reply 117):
If slot-cross is allowed, NH would do this using one daytime and one night slots:

HND-HNL-HND: 10pm-1030am // 1230pm-420pm+1
HND-LAX-HND: 7pm-1pm // 120am-500am+1

Possible. But your suggestion has two daytime departure slots, so the HND-HNL flight will have leave one hour later like at 11pm.
I think 7pm departure for the LAX flight is too early. You could even turn the aircraft around at LAX at that arrival time, so most likely the latest daytime departure like in a 10pm departure.
 
HeeseokKoo
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Sat Apr 30, 2016 3:29 am

Quoting klkla (Reply 111):
When will we know the routes JL and NH plan to fly?

Sometime between today and May 19th. May 19th is the deadline for W16 slot submission: http://www.schedule-coordination.jp
 
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LAXintl
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Sat Apr 30, 2016 5:18 pm

Delta loaded its LAX-HND W16 flight schedule - albeit a very generic schedule subject to government approval.

DL7 LAX-HND 1050-1545+1
DL6 HND-LAX 1725-1020

LAX departure and arrival times identical to schedule NRT-LAX-NRT times. Lends credence to rumor DL will drop LAX-NRT once HND started.

Quoting HeeseokKoo (Reply 119):
Sometime between today and May 19th. May 19th is the deadline for W16 slot submission: http://www.schedule-coordination.jp

In practice airlines have well until after the IATA slot conference in June to finalize their request. For now they simply can ask for any wishful desired times. Also destinations do not need to be announced.

Since historic slots will be allocated first, these new flights will only fit into any remaining gaps. The horse trading and how things play out wont be known until the slot conference and afterwards when airlines return any unwanted slots by August 15th. Slot coordinators then have until August 31st to reallocate any available slots for the final awards.

In otherwords might be quite some time to see what times the airlines end up and what schedules they can fly with them. Its quite possible slots eventually awarded might not match what the airlines require.
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HeeseokKoo
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Sat Apr 30, 2016 8:34 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 120):
Since historic slots will be allocated first, these new flights will only fit into any remaining gaps. The horse trading and how things play out wont be known until the slot conference and afterwards when airlines return any unwanted slots by August 15th. Slot coordinators then have until August 31st to reallocate any available slots for the final awards.

That's correct. I searched few years of data and JAL/ANA usually doesn't confirm winter schedule until late July or mid August. ANA may want to defer announcing HND-JFK until UA get HND-EWR.
 
klwright69
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Sun May 01, 2016 1:31 pm

The late night departures back to the USA are supposedly terribly unpopular, but UA"s SFO bound flight goes out full or almost full most nights from Haneda.
 
commavia
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu May 05, 2016 5:01 pm

Interestingly, Hawaiian filed with the DOT today for automatic grant of the daily HND authority to be split 4x weekly HNL and 3x weekly KOA based on the fact that no other U.S. carrier applied for the nighttime authority:

"To be clear, Hawaiian’s first priority is and remains the permanent award of authority to serve Honolulu daily during daytime operating hours, and nothing in this motion implies implicitly or otherwise that Hawaiian's needs are met with the award of this nighttime route authority. Hawaiian will continue to pursue that application with the upmost vigor. To that end, Hawaiian will submit a timely and compelling Answer to the applications of American, Delta and United and advocate for the award of permanent authority to serve Haneda-Honolulu daily during daytime operating hours. It is as a separate matter, in the absence of a competing application for the nighttime route, that Hawaiian requests that the Department follow past precedent in proceedings where the award of limited entry authority is not contested and proceed directly to issue a Notice of Action Taken granting the authority to Hawaiian to operate its Haneda-Kona/Honolulu route during nighttime operating hours."
 
a380787
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu May 05, 2016 5:13 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 123):

Interestingly, Hawaiian filed with the DOT today for automatic grant of the daily HND authority to be split 4x weekly HNL and 3x weekly KOA based on the fact that no other U.S. carrier applied for the nighttime authority:

Shrewd move indeed to win a full 14 weekly frequencies. Potential risk is that DOT will just give them 1x nighttime and 0x daytime, and ended up benefiting AA/DL instead.
 
azjubilee
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu May 05, 2016 5:25 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 124):
Shrewd move indeed to win a full 14 weekly frequencies. Potential risk is that DOT will just give them 1x nighttime and 0x daytime, and ended up benefiting AA/DL instead.


They're all shooting for the moon, hoping to at least keep what they've got (day slots) and maybe gain something from the 2 extra slots. Nobody wants the night slot other than HA, making it easier to just award it to HA and hope the DOT doesn't disregard their day slot request in favor of the other 3 airlines. Seems that HA is banking on the fact that it would be shocking and potentially unprecedented to strip the current operators of their currently held positions.

If one reads the entire submission by HAL, the goal is to be able to participate in the slot proceedings for the Fall/Winter schedule, which have a deadline of May 20th (19th in the States).

[Edited 2016-05-05 10:38:37]

[Edited 2016-05-05 10:42:46]
 
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LAXintl
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu May 05, 2016 5:44 pm

Rather bizarre move actually. And asking for a summary award in the middle of the formal route case is far from normal practice.
I don't see DOT granting such request at all, but it would certainly be any easy way to get HA request off the plate and unfortunately make way easy to forget HA's daytime request.

But anyhow, I dont see DOT acting upon this. And certainly other airlines would have the right to challenge such request, and even potentially amend their own request to include night slot potentially.
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azjubilee
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu May 05, 2016 5:51 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 126):

Bold move indeed... but in this cut throat industry where the deck is stacked against the small and unaligned carriers, they have to be bold. I thought the timing was odd as well, but I guess it makes sense from HA's perspective given the fact that nobody has actually mentioned the night slots in their motions and the window is closing for these sorts of motions. I guess we'll see what happens. The DOT will do what it wants anyhow, the rest of us are just along for the ride.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu May 05, 2016 6:08 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 126):
I don't see DOT granting such request at all, but it would certainly be any easy way to get HA request off the plate and unfortunately make way easy to forget HA's daytime request.

But in the end, does HA really care that much about the daytime slots? It's not like they're as dependent on connecting traffic over HNL as much as the other bidders, nor premium traffic to align with what business travelers prefer. They've struggled and failed in the past to get the DOT to pay heed to their request for KOA-HND access. This may be just a quick-fix way to get KOA slotted in, and then hope that over time, additional frequency allowances can permit them to bump up HNL-HND.
 
azjubilee
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu May 05, 2016 6:26 pm

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 128):

I think they care, but for different reasons than the other 3. HAL would love to retain the temporary day slot to make it even easier to catch the public transport and to offer the guest more options. Do the night flights work? Absolutely. Retaining the temporary day slot would be even better. In the end, it won't kill the success of the operation by operating at the later times. One can only ask... right?
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu May 05, 2016 9:01 pm

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 128):
But in the end, does HA really care that much about the daytime slots?

The most common way to get from HND to the US aboard a US carrier is via HNL on HA. Any day time slot they get is another slot that the US3 don't get and less traffic that gets taken away from HA. I bet they care.

tortugamon
 
Sightseer
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu May 05, 2016 9:44 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 130):
Any day time slot they get is another slot that the US3 don't get and less traffic that gets taken away from HA. I bet they care.

I don't see how that matters when HA and the US3 don't really compete for the same traffic flows ex-HND. Granted, HA does compete with JL/NH, and JL might start daytime HNL service, but I would be surprised if NH did.
 
a380787
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu May 05, 2016 9:52 pm

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 131):
but I would be surprised if NH did.

Why would this be a surprise? NH is slated to have 3+1 slots, which gives them quite a bit of flexibility of mixing business with leisure routes.
 
Sightseer
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu May 05, 2016 10:09 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 132):
Why would this be a surprise? NH is slated to have 3+1 slots, which gives them quite a bit of flexibility of mixing business with leisure routes.

Unlike JL, NH still has a night-time slot to play with, and I feel reasonably confident saying they have more, better opportunities using their daytime slots for mainland destinations. A wildcard would be if they kept the night slots for LAX.
 
Sightseer
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu May 05, 2016 10:46 pm

Airline responses have been filed.

AA cites the continued growth and connectivity of DFW as a hub while saying that growth at MSP has been more stagnant and that EWR service on UA would duplicate future NH service to NYC. It also touts the dual connectivity of LAX-HND and mentions DL's plans to drop MSP-NRT.

DL again stresses the importance of meaningful inter-alliance competition in the US-HND market while maintaining that DFW is a less efficient gateway than MSP and that UA's EWR service would be redundant with NH's planned service. HA is singled out for the success it has achieved with its night slots and relative lack of public benefits in its application.

UA, like AA for LAX, notes the connection opportunities on both ends of its SFO-HND route and proposed EWR flight, while also touting the benefits of nonstop NYC-HND service. It critiques both DL and AA for crying foul about their market positions and proposing service from smaller markets and less efficient gateways in DFW/MSP/ATL, while arguing that the public benefits in HA's application were marginal at best.

HA for its part points to the size of Hawaii as a market and downplays the benefits to mainland business travelers compared to the economic benefits Hawaii would receive from increased tourism, while criticizing AA, DL, and UA about the size of the aircraft in their proposals and their stronger positions in the Japanese market.


Interestingly, most of the attacks centered on proposals for new service, instead of going after existing gateways. Perhaps the airlines feel there is a low likelihood that any existing services will be stripped away.

[Edited 2016-05-05 15:50:21]
 
chiawei
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu May 05, 2016 10:47 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 62):
Then why have the Haneda flights done poorly the last 5 years ? The 2200-0700 window is awful and throws everyone time off. The times just do not work from the conitnental 48 states. Who needs a 0100 departure from HND for LAX or SFO arriving in time for dinner.

Having done 2 round trips on UA 875/76. I actually liked the current night time departure and arrival.

Flights were quiet full even on weekdays.

Coming back at 12:30am is not bad. I usually end my meeting around 6. Dinner with supplier until 8:30. Then take mono rail to HND. I can come back on saturday 12:30am and arrive in SFO at 5pm dinner time friday. I can sleep and still have full weekend.

With day time departure, means that i have to stay one extra day at tokyo and lose out on sat. On top of that, HND is just so much easier to fly in and out of.

DL should get 0 slots. LAX-HND already has AA and ANA. No need for DL to get involved. MSP to HND is just beyond ridiculous- are they going to try and invent a A319 super BBJ?
 
Sightseer
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu May 05, 2016 10:52 pm

Quoting chiawei (Reply 135):
DL should get 0 slots. LAX-HND already has AA and ANA. No need for DL to get involved.

Just FYI, DL and NH have been "involved" in LAX-HND for years, while AA began service in February.

[Edited 2016-05-05 15:54:50]
 
chiawei
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu May 05, 2016 11:18 pm

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 136):
Just FYI, DL and NH have been "involved" in LAX-HND for years, while AA began service in February.

I know that. But with lower LF than AA and no skyteam partner in Japan. For the public benefit, DL should not be granted day time slot.

All of the fair competition talk is stupid in my opinion. LAX-HND 2 carrier is enough. United should not lose the SFO-HND slot. SFO should at minimum have two HND flight.

Delta already has a hub in NRT. Should keep it that way.

Other than LAX and JFK that can probably sustain O&D on Delta's Japan flight. None of the Delta flight makes sense for HND slots.

EWR/JFK should be next to have HND slots. The only US metal on this route is Delta to Narita. Given that DL already has a hub there. There is no reason for DL to ever launch JFK- HND. The only thing that makes sense would be AA or UA to have HND access from NYC area.

From flying public point of view. DL should not be given any Haneda slots since it has weakest O&D market. I just don't see how MSP-HND, ATL-HND and completely bypassing their NRT hub makes sense.

Last time DOT trying to be fair, looked what happened with SEA-HND on DL. Total waste.

[Edited 2016-05-05 16:19:04]
 
tortugamon
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 06, 2016 12:03 am

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 131):
I don't see how that matters when HA and the US3 don't really compete for the same traffic flows ex-HND.

HA said in their statement that they were capturing the majority of the traffic at present.

tortugamon
 
Sightseer
Posts: 982
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:04 am

RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 06, 2016 2:27 am

Quoting chiawei (Reply 137):

Sounds like you may have been a big fan of Bermuda II, where access to LHR was extremely limited and many US airlines and cities were allowed from LGW only, artificially skewing competition in the world's single biggest air market (LON) for decades.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 138):
HA said in their statement that they were capturing the majority of the traffic at present.

I was just trying to say that, JVs aside, the US3 are not competitive on HND-HNL. Hence, they aren't stealing HA's traffic flows.
 
commavia
Posts: 11489
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 06, 2016 12:12 pm

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 134):
Airline responses have been filed.

All make for interesting reading.

The aggressive and assertive tone of the applications - particularly from AA and Delta - underscore how much importance these carriers place on access to HND.

Reading through the responses, the biggest takeaway for me personally is how underwhelming Hawaiian's arguments seem. It's notable to me that Hawaiian's filing is by far the longest, and yet it seemed to me strikingly less compelling than the other carriers' submissions. I still think that Hawaiian getting one of the prime daytime slots would be a missed opportunity and waste of scarce access. I sincerely hope Hawaiian doesn't get any of the daytime slot allocations.

I think Delta summed it up best:

"The result of Hawaiian’s HND daylight proposal is that it can move its HND-HNL arrival time earlier by 2 hour and 30 minutes, enabling primarily Japan point of sale leisure customers to have a 2.5 hours of extra time on Waikiki beach."

Not only is TYO-HNL heavily Japan point-of-sale, but even the arguments about an earlier eastbound arrival facilitating broader connectivity seem feeble to me considering that the markets in which Hawaiian would hypothetically be offering better connectivity are all markets (like LAX, SFO, etc.) that are likely to either have nonstop, or better 1-stop, connectivity to/from HND anyway.

After reading through all the responses, my personal preference for final allocations is:

Daytime
1 - DL / LAX
1 - DL / MSP
1 - AA / LAX
1 - AA / DFW
1 - UA / SFO

Nighttime
1 - HA / HNL
 
C010T3
Posts: 1956
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 06, 2016 12:27 pm

Hawaiian always files these super long applications, answers and replies. They are also always very repetitive and not very linear in the presentation of arguments. I'm sure that they tend to irritate the person responsible for reviewing the case.
 
fun2fly
Posts: 1550
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2006 8:44 am

RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 06, 2016 1:28 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 140):
Daytime1 - DL / LAX1 - DL / MSP1 - AA / LAX1 - AA / DFW1 - UA / SFONighttime1 - HA / HNL

Why would you not select the NYC market vs. MSP or the dual LAX nomination? Just seems odd to omit the largest market for a US carrier for a small market or a daily double.
 
commavia
Posts: 11489
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 06, 2016 1:42 pm

Quoting fun2fly (Reply 142):
Why would you not select the NYC market vs. MSP or the dual LAX nomination? Just seems odd to omit the largest market for a US carrier for a small market or a daily double.

Because that's the order of preference that airlines requested.

Personally, I'd definitely prioritize ATL far above MSP. ATL is a far larger and stronger hub and I agree with the assertions of multiple competing applicants that MSP is likely more reliant on the beyond-NRT feed which HND cannot replicate. Nonetheless, Delta put MSP ahead of ATL, so it should get what it ask for.

Beyond that, I personally think AA should also get two daytime frequencies and LAX and DFW were AA's only requests, in that order. The O&D draw of LAX speaks for itself, before even considering AA's large and growing connecting hub there, and while DFW generates far less O&D (although still a respectable amount, particularly for a non-coastal U.S. city), it's connecting possibilities given the size of the hub and the geography both within the U.S. and relative to Japan are huge.

And as for United, I think the antitrust-immunized, metal-neutral JV with ANA guarantees United broad access to HND no matter what, and thus United shouldn't get more than one of the five daytime allocations, and of those, not only is SFO United's first preference but it's clearly also the single largest and strongest Asian connecting hub of any U.S. airline along the west coast.

An allocation of 2 Delta (LAX/ATL), 2 AA (LAX/DFW), 1 United (SFO) and 1 Hawaiian (HNL) balances the geographic and scheduling realities of each of these airlines' networks and hubs, optimizes connectivity at both ends for the airlines that can best generate it, and, in the context of the broader U.S.-Japan and U.S.-Asia markets, offers reasonable balance among the three alliances between the U.S. and HND - 5 Star (4 ANA/1 United), 4 oneworld (2 JAL/2 AA), 2 SkyTeam (Delta) and 1 unalligned (Hawaiian).
 
a380787
Posts: 4573
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 06, 2016 2:01 pm

The combined NH+UA should *very* likely be HNL SFO LAX ORD JFK.

As for the 2 slots that JL got, I'm not too certain they would do HNL+SFO. Possibly HNL+JFK to make a combined offering of HNL LAX DFW JFK.

I'd love to see what the ulterior motive for DL is - if DOT skips MSP and awards LAX+ATL instead, what would DL do to MSP-NRT ...   
 
klwright69
Posts: 2702
Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2000 4:22 am

RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 06, 2016 2:08 pm

I think if DL were to get 2 allocations, the 2nd one should go to ATL, not MSP. Otherwise it would make sense that EWR would get an allocation, even though ANA would get JFK. I mean we are always being beaten over the head in this forum with people telling us that EWR is not in New York, anyway, it's in New Jersey. People on this forum are always ranting and raving about UA not having a New York hub, yada yada. It's a New Jersey hub.

Now, lo and behold, some of the same people are telling us that JFK and EWR are pretty much the same place, right? So, Star A should just have one New York flight to Haneda. Just like 2 plus 2 is 4. Newark is now in New York, we all knew that all along, it's the same place (from the same people telling us they are not the same before). Sigh.
 
a380787
Posts: 4573
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 06, 2016 2:18 pm

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 145):
I think if DL were to get 2 allocations, the 2nd one should go to ATL, not MSP. Otherwise it would make sense that EWR would get an allocation, even though ANA would get JFK. I mean we are always being beaten over the head in this forum with people telling us that EWR is not in New York, anyway, it's in New Jersey. People on this forum are always ranting and raving about UA not having a New York hub, yada yada. It's a New Jersey hub.

Now, lo and behold, some of the same people are telling us that JFK and EWR are pretty much the same place, right? So, Star A should just have one New York flight to Haneda. Just like 2 plus 2 is 4. Newark is now in New York, we all knew that all along, it's the same place (from the same people telling us they are not the same before). Sigh.

Double standards indeed. EWR is all of a sudden new york when their agenda is to deny UA, but EWR is back to new jersey when their agenda is to promote their own airline's hub.

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 145):

I think if DL were to get 2 allocations, the 2nd one should go to ATL, not MSP.

That's my opinion too. I've always felt that the MSP application was too politically motivated for DOT to fall for it.
 
LAXtoATL
Posts: 596
Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2009 3:55 am

RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 06, 2016 2:39 pm

Regardless of what position you take as to what is the preferred airport for NYC and whether or not EWR should be considered part of NYC...

The geographic differences would have far less impact on a 10+ hour international journey versus a 2 hour domestic trip.
Hypothetically adding an hour in commute time to the airport would be negligible on that long into trip, but adding that same hour to short domestic day trip would make total travel time almost 50% longer.
 
commavia
Posts: 11489
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 06, 2016 2:42 pm

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 145):
Now, lo and behold, some of the same people are telling us that JFK and EWR are pretty much the same place, right? So, Star A should just have one New York flight to Haneda. Just like 2 plus 2 is 4. Newark is now in New York, we all knew that all along, it's the same place (from the same people telling us they are not the same before). Sigh.
Quoting a380787 (Reply 146):
Double standards indeed. EWR is all of a sudden new york when their agenda is to deny UA, but EWR is back to new jersey when their agenda is to promote their own airline's hub.

EWR has always been NYC metro - just like JFK and LGA. Anyone who in the past suggested otherwise was kidding themselves or trying to manipulate an argument. That doesn't mean there aren't certain parts of the NYC region that are far more likely to favor EWR over JFK/LGA or vice versa, but there's no question that the three airports' catchment areas heavily overlap and they all serve the same urban area.

All of that aside, though, I actually don't think that the inclusion or exclusion of EWR from the broader NYC metro market with ANA's likely flight from JFK is what may ultimately cost United a EWR slot. I think, optically, what will hurt United's chances more is just the perception of overall dominance in the U.S.-HND market given how many flights ANA will get. As pointed out in every one of the competitors' applications, United - via its antitrust-immunized, metal-neutral JV with ANA - is guaranteed access to at least one third of all the U.S.-HND frequencies before the U.S. DOT even acts.

With or without an ANA flight to JFK, I think it is at least reasonably arguable that a United flight to EWR would be more valuable to the U.S. traveling public than a Delta flight to ATL or possibly an AA flight to DFW, and I - personally - don't even think it's debatable that a flight from HND to EWR would be far more valuable than a flight from HND to MSP. But, alas, I don't make the decisions, and whether right or wrong, whether anyone agrees or disagrees with it, I think the perception of United's dominance is real and it may well cost United a second daytime HND allocation (for EWR).
 
a380787
Posts: 4573
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 06, 2016 2:56 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 148):
All of that aside, though, I actually don't think that the inclusion or exclusion of EWR from the broader NYC metro market with ANA's likely flight from JFK is what may ultimately cost United a EWR slot. I think, optically, what will hurt United's chances more is just the perception of overall dominance in the U.S.-HND market given how many flights ANA will get. As pointed out in every one of the competitors' applications, United - via its antitrust-immunized, metal-neutral JV with ANA - is guaranteed access to at least one third of all the U.S.-HND frequencies before the U.S. DOT even acts.

With or without an ANA flight to JFK, I think it is at least reasonably arguable that a United flight to EWR would be more valuable to the U.S. traveling public than a Delta flight to ATL or possibly an AA flight to DFW, and I - personally - don't even think it's debatable that a flight from HND to EWR would be far more valuable than a flight from HND to MSP. But, alas, I don't make the decisions, and whether right or wrong, whether anyone agrees or disagrees with it, I think the perception of United's dominance is real and it may well cost United a second daytime HND allocation (for EWR).

So if I'm reading your position correctly, UA+NH will/shall get 5 total regardless ? Obviously it's a rather indefensible position for UA+NH to get 6 slots.

On a separate note, HA's last minute notice has practically ensured that DOT will give them the night-time one instead. The risk is if DOT follows HA exact request and split the nighttime to 4w HNL + 3w KOA, I'm not sure that's really a good outcome for HA at all. I'm guessing HA wants the 4+3 to *suppliment* the daytime one, not in lieu of.
 
commavia
Posts: 11489
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 06, 2016 3:07 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 149):
So if I'm reading your position correctly, UA+NH will/shall get 5 total regardless ? Obviously it's a rather indefensible position for UA+NH to get 6 slots.

Obviously I have no idea what United will get, but in my personal opinion, United should get one daily daytime allocation, and specifically for United's first preference, which is of course SFO.

Given what we know about the Japanese side, my personal preference for the ultimate outcome of all of this would be:

Daytime

1 - UA / SFO
1 - NH / LAX
1 - NH / JFK
1 - NH / ORD

1 - AA / LAX
1 - AA / DFW
1 - JL / JFK
1 - JL / ORD

1 - DL / LAX
1 - DL / MSP (my actual preference is ATL, but Delta should get what it asked for, which was MSP first)

Nighttime

1 - HA / HNL
1 - NH/ HNL

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