burnsie28
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 06, 2016 3:17 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 146):
That's my opinion too. I've always felt that the MSP application was too politically motivated for DOT to fall for it.

Apparently its a rather large business market and was Delta's number 1 choice for the slot.

Top
 
a380787
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 06, 2016 3:29 pm

Quoting burnsie28 (Reply 151):
Apparently its a rather large business market and was Delta's number 1 choice for the slot.

... which is a lot more skewed domestically than other gateways such as DFW or ATL. Since this is Tokyo service, that's the portion of the business market that is relevant to this discussion. And speaking of business market, I don't know how one can argue MSP is a larger business market than ATL, both domestically and globally.

And to be pedantic, it was #2 choice, after LAX.
 
chiawei
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 06, 2016 5:24 pm

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 139):
Sounds like you may have been a big fan of Bermuda II, where access to LHR was extremely limited and many US airlines and cities were allowed from LGW only, artificially skewing competition in the world's single biggest air market (LON) for decades.

I don't see a problem with that. If you can't afford to pay higher price to fly into Heathrow. Then Gatwick is fine.

Quoting commavia (Reply 143):

An allocation of 2 Delta (LAX/ATL), 2 AA (LAX/DFW), 1 United (SFO) and 1 Hawaiian (HNL) balances the geographic and scheduling realities of each of these airlines' networks and hubs, optimizes connectivity at both ends for the airlines that can best generate it, and, in the context of the broader U.S.-Japan and U.S.-Asia markets, offers reasonable balance among the three alliances between the U.S. and HND - 5 Star (4 ANA/1 United), 4 oneworld (2 JAL/2 AA), 2 SkyTeam (Delta) and 1 unalligned (Hawaiian).

Again, what does this does offer the flying public?

There is no need for three LAX-HND flight. Why does Skyteam deserve two day time slot? Competition is a farse.

Between MSP/ATL- DL should only get one.

I would rather see EWR-HND since it makes sense to offer more passenger access to HND. Not to artificially trying to balance competition- that failed miserably last time. DOT should learn a lesson and do what is the best for customers not corporation.
 
chiawei
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 06, 2016 5:26 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 149):
So if I'm reading your position correctly, UA+NH will/shall get 5 total regardless ? Obviously it's a rather indefensible position for UA+NH to get 6 slots.

Again- why can't UA+NH get 6 slots? Why is delta entitled to get any slot?

Artificially creating a none-existing equal playing field? Wasting slots to facilitate fake competition?

Flying public should get more access not making corporation happy.
 
chiawei
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 06, 2016 5:31 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 148):
With or without an ANA flight to JFK, I think it is at least reasonably arguable that a United flight to EWR would be more valuable to the U.S. traveling public than a Delta flight to ATL or possibly an AA flight to DFW, and I - personally - don't even think it's debatable that a flight from HND to EWR would be far more valuable than a flight from HND to MSP. But, alas, I don't make the decisions, and whether right or wrong, whether anyone agrees or disagrees with it, I think the perception of United's dominance is real and it may well cost United a second daytime HND allocation (for EWR).

This is exactly the issue i have with DOT. Creating superficial competition when there is none to begin with. There is no way for Delta to compete on HND routes with its route map. For the flying public its actually better to have NYC region getting a US metal instead of JL/NH metal. MSP and ATL really has no business getting one. LAX already has two even if DL gets axed on LAX.

Skyteam has dominance in China. No one seems to complain about that. You win some and lose some. Skyteam has no partner in Japan and has hub in NRT. They should just focus on that and let One World and Star focus on HND.
 
Sightseer
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 06, 2016 7:38 pm

Quoting chiawei (Reply 153):
Quoting Sightseer (Reply 139):
Sounds like you may have been a big fan of Bermuda II, where access to LHR was extremely limited and many US airlines and cities were allowed from LGW only, artificially skewing competition in the world's single biggest air market (LON) for decades.

I don't see a problem with that. If you can't afford to pay higher price to fly into Heathrow. Then Gatwick is fine.

First off, what you said has nothing to do with airline access to airports, which is the whole point of this thread. Second, in the US-UK business market, Gatwick is clearly not "fine." In the years since LHR opened up, every single US airline has moved all their service there and left LGW completely. Aside from a recently added token JFK flight on BA, all US service left from LGW is either to leisure destinations or on budget carriers like Norwegian. In the past, DL has stated that when it came to negotiating corporate contracts, it couldn't even get in the door at major companies since it lacked access to LHR. You are asking for more of the same in Tokyo by arbitrarily barring certain airlines from using the more convenient HND.

Quoting chiawei (Reply 154):
Again- why can't UA+NH get 6 slots? Why is delta entitled to get any slot?

Why should regulators artificially create a duopoly? Where are the public benefits of that approach?

Also, since UA and AA each applied for two slots, leaving two remaining, you would prefer the US grant both of those for use in a market (Hawaii) that is 90% Japan-originating, instead of giving DL even one?

Quoting chiawei (Reply 155):
Skyteam has dominance in China. No one seems to complain about that.

No one complains about that because airlines without alliance partners are still granted access to their preferred airports and aren't treated unfairly by regulators. Imagine if AA were relegated to NKG or HGH instead of PVG because they didn't have a partner hub there.

Quoting chiawei (Reply 155):
Skyteam has no partner in Japan and has hub in NRT.

It is a scissor hub with little hope of capturing a meaningful percentage of the local market and is being increasingly overflown by rivals with every passing year. In an evolving market, would you have DL stay the course and continue with something that isn't working?
 
Sightseer
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 06, 2016 8:32 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 123):

Interestingly, Hawaiian filed with the DOT today for automatic grant of the daily HND authority to be split 4x weekly HNL and 3x weekly KOA based on the fact that no other U.S. carrier applied for the nighttime authority:

AA has filed a response saying it has no objections. Perhaps because ...

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 126):
it would certainly be any easy way to get HA request off the plate and unfortunately make way easy to forget HA's daytime request.
 
airlinedork
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Sat May 07, 2016 2:26 am

Quoting burnsie28 (Reply 151):
Obviously I have no idea what United will get, but in my personal opinion, United should get one daily daytime allocation, and specifically for United's first preference, which is of course SFO.

Given what we know about the Japanese side, my personal preference for the ultimate outcome of all of this would be:

Daytime

1 - UA / SFO
1 - NH / LAX
1 - NH / JFK
1 - NH / ORD

1 - AA / LAX
1 - AA / DFW
1 - JL / JFK
1 - JL / ORD

1 - DL / LAX
1 - DL / MSP (my actual preference is ATL, but Delta should get what it asked for, which was MSP first)

Nighttime

1 - HA / HNL
1 - NH/ HNL

I'm gonna balk the trend - I think it very easily could turn out as such:

Daytime

1 - NH / SFO
1 - NH / LAX
1 - NH / ORD

1 - AA / LAX
1 - AA / DFW
1 - JL / JFK
1 - JL / ORD

1 - DL / LAX
1 - DL / MSP
1 - DL / ATL

Nighttime

1 - HA / HNL
1 - NH/ HNL

This balances the alliances the most and covers the major US hubs for each alliance.

Some facts:
LAX-TYO market is almost twice as large as SFO-TYO
ORD-TYO is larger than JFK-TYO

[Edited 2016-05-06 19:41:01]
 
a380787
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Sat May 07, 2016 4:06 am

Quoting airlinedork (Reply 158):

2 ORD but just 1 SFO 1 NYC ? Makes little sense considering SFO is the 2nd largest mainland market after LAX
 
klwright69
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Sat May 07, 2016 1:08 pm

Looking ahead I see that UA has rescheduled their SFO-HND flight to the daytime in November.

"EWR is part of the same catchment area as JFK."
Well....No kidding. But we can sort through hundreds and hundreds of threads over the years where numerous people here gone to great lengths to parse out how the two markets are distinct. All this while peanut gallery is always reminding us that EWR is not in New York. Now everyone agrees they are the same market. It is one of top 10 greatest hits in this forum, (writing about EWR and JFK, when people could be doing more productive things in their time, and getting downright personal about it too). Glad it's finally settled.

Okay so ANA will serve JFK. But UA does not even fly to JFK to offer even one connection. Oh..so they are the same, but still different.

But at this time all the airlines can't move their flights to HND from NRT. UA didn't apply for DEN-HND.
 
airlinedork
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Sat May 07, 2016 2:06 pm

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 160):

2 ORD but just 1 SFO 1 NYC ? Makes little sense considering SFO is the 2nd largest mainland market after LAX

Yes, agreed. This is where I was struggling. The question is how much beyond US hub connections there are. This will be taken into account just as much as the local market. The more I think about it, should UA secure SFO, it's a matter of AA getting DFW or DL getting ATL for the final slot. Then again, SFO-TYO is about twice as large as ORD-TYO, but ORD may provide far better connecting opportunities to the eastern US.
 
jfk777
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Sat May 07, 2016 2:21 pm

Maybe the way to settle this is to give each of the US3 one Haneda slot to use from the gateway of their choice, give one to Hawaiian and give the last one to the best proposal.
 
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LAXintl
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Sat May 07, 2016 4:25 pm

United has published its daytime HND schedule effective W16.

UA875 SFO-HND 1045-1505+1 777
UA876 HND-SFO 1655-0905 777

The SFO-NRT for comparison is the following:

UA837 SFO-NRT 1110-1515+1 744
UA838 NRT-SFO 1820-1040 744

As caution though these could be place holder schedules for now, as the formal IATA slot allocation conference is not until June.

=

Now need AA to load their planned dayime LAX-HND times.
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LAXintl
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Mon May 09, 2016 9:55 pm

Delta and United have submitted their responses to the Hawaiian Air request to immediately be granted the night time slot.

DL opposes the move saying HA seeks to circumvent the DOTs entire process which asked all airlines to reapply for all the slots. On its own DL does not oppose HA winning the night time slot, however by pushing for a summary award HA seeks to have it both ways still having its request for daytime slot in play.
DL argues the DOT instead needs to look at the totality of all request and make its decision accordingly to ensure maximum US public benefit.

United similarly objects to the HA request. While HA has itself stated that the night time slots work well for its needs, and HA ultimately might be awarded the slot, this route case also has HA chasing after a daytime slot, and simply awarding HA the night slot would give them a leg up.
Additionally granting the HA slot for mixed KOA service would be tantamount to DOT giving away such valuable rights on a route whose market size is mere 1.3% total US-Japan demand, and one which the DOT has repeatedly passed over 3 times for its lack of U.S. public benefit.
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chiawei
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Tue May 10, 2016 1:03 am

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 155):
First off, what you said has nothing to do with airline access to airports, which is the whole point of this thread. Second, in the US-UK business market, Gatwick is clearly not "fine." In the years since LHR opened up, every single US airline has moved all their service there and left LGW completely. Aside from a recently added token JFK flight on BA, all US service left from LGW is either to leisure destinations or on budget carriers like Norwegian. In the past, DL has stated that when it came to negotiating corporate contracts, it couldn't even get in the door at major companies since it lacked access to LHR. You are asking for more of the same in Tokyo by arbitrarily barring certain airlines from using the more convenient HND.

You just proved my point. Focus on the right market based on what you can get. They are already enough carrier for the flying public. Why does DL deserve special treatment?

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 155):
Why should regulators artificially create a duopoly? Where are the public benefits of that approach?

Also, since UA and AA each applied for two slots, leaving two remaining, you would prefer the US grant both of those for use in a market (Hawaii) that is 90% Japan-originating, instead of giving DL even one?

A stronger and fair duopoly will offer better competition than a weaker triple carrier competition.

Let me ask you this way.

What competition will DL bring to the HND market? From LAX? From ATL? From MSP?

Lets suppose DL gets LAX-HND. It will be competing with NH, AA. Its load has always been lower than both NH and AA. There are also 6 LAX-NRT flight daily. For flying public, how is 9 flight from LAX is much better than 8 flight?

MSP and ATL does not have that much O&D traffic to Japan. Should not deserve a slot.

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 155):

No one complains about that because airlines without alliance partners are still granted access to their preferred airports and aren't treated unfairly by regulators. Imagine if AA were relegated to NKG or HGH instead of PVG because they didn't have a partner hub there.

Too bad. Chinese airport does benefit in terms of slot and departure priority for their home carrier.

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 155):
It is a scissor hub with little hope of capturing a meaningful percentage of the local market and is being increasingly overflown by rivals with every passing year. In an evolving market, would you have DL stay the course and continue with something that isn't working?

Then DL should move out of Japan.

My point is sample. I would rather see two strong and equal alliance duking it out. Rather than weaken star to prop up hopeless skyteam.
 
C010T3
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Tue May 10, 2016 1:15 am

The objections of UA and DL are not really about the frequencies to which HA would have access in advance. That would not affect the outcome of the proceeding. They are about protecting their respective HNL-NRT flights. American doesn't care, because they don't fly the route.
 
Sightseer
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Tue May 10, 2016 4:02 am

Quoting chiawei (Reply 164):
Focus on the right market based on what you can get.

At the moment, DL can possibly get up to three slots at HND. So that is what they are focusing on.

Quoting chiawei (Reply 164):
A stronger and fair duopoly will offer better competition than a weaker triple carrier competition.

Please explain how a duopoly is more competitive than a triopoly. How is, say, Boeing + Airbus more competitive than Boeing + Airbus + Bombardier?

Quoting chiawei (Reply 164):
What competition will DL bring to the HND market?

Speaking of duopolies. Before the US and Australia had open skies, when the only competitors were UA and QF, it was common to pay $2,000 round-trip between the two countries. Last month UA was selling sub-$400 RT tickets from select cities. That is the power of competition, and that is something the DOT is charged with promoting.

Quoting chiawei (Reply 164):
For flying public, how is 9 flight from LAX is much better than 8 flight?

Why don't you ask AA and NH?

Quoting chiawei (Reply 164):
Then DL should move out of Japan.

They already are in a sense by overflying NRT from DTW/LAX/SEA and applying for more slots at the preferred Tokyo airport. But forcing them to stay at NRT while all of their competitors are at HND, a la Bermuda II, will put them at a significant competitive disadvantage in a market where they already are at a competitive disadvantage. That does not mean they should get three slots, but it also doesn't mean that they should be shut out completely.

Quoting chiawei (Reply 164):
Rather than weaken star to prop up hopeless skyteam.

The Japanese government has already helped Star plenty by giving NH four slots. I have no problem with that. But it does mean that regardless of what the DOT does, Star will have the largest share of US/HND traffic.

If it were up to you, how would you award the slots? I guess 6 Star, 4 OW, 2 HA? If that is the case, I would love to hear why you think HA should receive more slots than DL.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Tue May 10, 2016 7:48 am

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 166):
I would love to hear why you think HA should receive more slots than DL.

I'll answer that one. In the original slot award, AA was awarded JFK, HA was awarded HNL and DL was awarded two slots, DTW and LAX. The only carrier that started service promptly, using their new route authority was HA. The only carrier that was successful with their HND service was HA. The only carrier that didn't abandon their route when the going got tough was HA. The only carrier that continued to provide daily service from HND after the devastating Tehoku earthquake slashed demand for travel from HND was HA. DL on the other hand abandoned their DTW route, was then allowed to transfer that authority to SEA and then abandoned that route also. They have squandered these valuable HND slots and should not be rewarded for bad behavior.
So yes, HA should receive more slots than DL.
Hawaiian Airlines Since 1929...........
 
commavia
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Tue May 10, 2016 12:46 pm

Quoting HALFA (Reply 167):
I'll answer that one. In the original slot award, AA was awarded JFK, HA was awarded HNL and DL was awarded two slots, DTW and LAX. The only carrier that started service promptly, using their new route authority was HA. The only carrier that was successful with their HND service was HA. The only carrier that didn't abandon their route when the going got tough was HA. The only carrier that continued to provide daily service from HND after the devastating Tehoku earthquake slashed demand for travel from HND was HA. DL on the other hand abandoned their DTW route, was then allowed to transfer that authority to SEA and then abandoned that route also. They have squandered these valuable HND slots and should not be rewarded for bad behavior.

I don't think it's a case of "rewarding bad behavior," but rather acknowledging the reality that the past in this case is almost certainly not an accurate predictor of the future.

The conditions under which all those other operators/flights were forced to operate - with suboptimal nighttime schedules that limited connectivity on one or both ends - doomed those routes from day one. But the economic reason why Hawaiian experienced little or no such handicap pretty much highlights exactly the reason why AA, Delta and United argue Hawaiian should get no daytime slots now. That reason, namely, is that Hawaiian's service to HND is indisputably skewed towards leisure, and indisputably skewed towards Japan point-of-sale.

As Delta said in its reply last week, the main benefit from Hawaiian now getting a HND daylight slot is that its "primarily Japan point of sale leisure customers [can] have ... 2.5 hours of extra time on Waikiki beach." Delta's assessment is blunt but accurate. Whereas Hawaiian itself acknowledges that its nighttime schedule has been exceedingly popular, the same isn't true of many of the other proposed routes, which can only work economically during daytime hours. As such, giving one of the precious few HND daytime allocations to Hawaiian would be a waste of the allocation.

[Edited 2016-05-10 05:59:21]
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Tue May 10, 2016 1:51 pm

Quoting HALFA (Reply 167):

Commavia already summed things up nicely, but if we were discussing night slots, I would be hard-pressed to disagree with you.
 
HALFA
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Tue May 10, 2016 7:52 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 168):
The conditions under which all those other operators/flights were forced to operate - with suboptimal nighttime schedules that limited connectivity on one or both ends - doomed those routes from day one.

And yet they still submitted their applications for routes they knew were doomed. They could have asked for HND-HNL but they didn't. That's not HA's fault. If the US DOT used your reasoning in their award decisions, then HA should have been given both night time slots that they asked for in the original award.

Quoting commavia (Reply 168):
But the economic reason why Hawaiian experienced little or no such handicap pretty much highlights exactly the reason why AA, Delta and United argue Hawaiian should get no daytime slots now. That reason, namely, is that Hawaiian's service to HND is indisputably skewed towards leisure, and indisputably skewed towards Japan point-of-sale.
Quoting commavia (Reply 168):
As Delta said in its reply last week, the main benefit from Hawaiian now getting a HND daylight slot is that its "primarily Japan point of sale leisure customers [can] have ... 2.5 hours of extra time on Waikiki beach." Delta's assessment is blunt but accurate.

I disagree. While yes, there is no disputing that HA's HND passengers are mostly Japanese originating, there is still a huge benefit for US citizens which is one of the criteria that the US DOT uses in it's slot awards. One more daily HND-HNL/KOA flight could potentially send over 107,000 more Japanese tourists to Hawaii per year, creating more jobs, adding more money to our economy, and tax coffers. This has a direct benefit for Hawaii. DL can spin their assessment of HA's application all they want, but awarding HA a new daytime slot will do much more than allow Japanese tourists to have "2.5 extra hours on Waikiki Beach". It will allow domestic connectivity throughout Japan, something that our current night time slot does not allow for. I see far greater benefit for Americans (Hawaii citizens) having HA receiving a new daytime slot than DL being awarded HND-MSP.
Hawaiian Airlines Since 1929...........
 
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Polot
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Tue May 10, 2016 7:58 pm

Quoting HALFA (Reply 170):
One more daily HND-HNL/KOA flight could potentially send over 107,000 more Japanese tourists to Hawaii per year, creating more jobs, adding more money to our economy, and tax coffers. This has a direct benefit for Hawaii. DL can spin their assessment of HA's application all they want, but awarding HA a new daytime slot will do much more than allow Japanese tourists to have "2.5 extra hours on Waikiki Beach". It will allow domestic connectivity throughout Japan, something that our current night time slot does not allow for. I see far greater benefit for Americans (Hawaii citizens) having HA receiving a new daytime slot than DL being awarded HND-MSP.

Then HA can add some more flights to NRT in addition to the one starting later this summer. Tourists who really want to go to Hawaii won't be dissuaded because of the Tokyo airport used, especially as HA will likely still be serving both.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Tue May 10, 2016 8:13 pm

Quoting Polot (Reply 171):
Then HA can add some more flights to NRT in addition to the one starting later this summer. Tourists who really want to go to Hawaii won't be dissuaded because of the Tokyo airport used, especially as HA will likely still be serving both.

NRT-HNL is well served with daily flights from DL, UA, JL, NH, CI, KE, and soon HA.
NRT does not offer the same extensive domestic connectivity that HND does. HA would like to use a daytime slot to allow for better Japanese domestic connections. NRT is better suited for international connectivity. DL has an international hub in NRT with connections all over Asia. Perhaps they could add more NRT-MSP service.
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LAXintl
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu May 12, 2016 3:19 pm

No surprise. ANA confirmed it plans to serve JFK and ORD with its new HND slots.

http://www.ana.co.jp/eng/aboutana/press/2016/160512.html

ANA will now have 5 North America routes from HND - HNL, JFK, LAX, ORD, and YVR
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu May 12, 2016 4:00 pm

Quoting HALFA (Reply 170):
They could have asked for HND-HNL but they didn't.

There was no reason for DL - or anyone else - to apply for a route that they knew HA would apply for, and a route that is not as beneficial to a majority of the American public and business community when compared to mainland-HND flights.

Despite protestations otherwise, Hawaii-Haneda is a niche market, beneficial only to well-heeled Japanese tourists and the tourist industry - and, even then, mostly to a local tourist industry located solely on the islands. HA may do very well on its HND-Hawaii flights, but the benefits of that success do not spread past a limited community and the airline itself.

Quoting commavia (Reply 168):
The conditions under which all those other operators/flights were forced to operate - with suboptimal nighttime schedules that limited connectivity on one or both ends - doomed those routes from day one. But the economic reason why Hawaiian experienced little or no such handicap pretty much highlights exactly the reason why AA, Delta and United argue Hawaiian should get no daytime slots now. That reason, namely, is that Hawaiian's service to HND is indisputably skewed towards leisure, and indisputably skewed towards Japan point-of-sale.

  
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Sightseer
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu May 12, 2016 4:02 pm

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 174):
Quoting HALFA (Reply 170):
They could have asked for HND-HNL but they didn't.

There was no reason for DL - or anyone else - to apply

DL actually did apply for HNL-HND, although HNL was its last choice.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu May 12, 2016 4:39 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 173):

No surprise. ANA confirmed it plans to serve JFK and ORD with its new HND slots.

http://www.ana.co.jp/eng/aboutana/press/2016/160512.html

ANA will now have 5 North America routes from HND - HNL, JFK, LAX, ORD, and YVR

So with their 4 U.S.-HND slot pairs they will serve:
HND-LAX (daytime)
HND-ORD (daytime)
HND-JFK (daytime)
HND-HNL (nighttime)

Do I have that correct? Presumably since NH currently has 2x daily on both ORD-NRT and JFK-NRT, they'll move one over to HND and keep one at NRT? That would leave them with a nicely rounded presence at NRT as well, with one daily to all of: SEA, SFO, SJC, LAX, IAH, ORD, IAD, and JFK, plus 2x to HNL?
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu May 12, 2016 8:31 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 173):
ANA confirmed it plans to serve JFK and ORD with its new HND slots.

I would think this wouldn't preclude EWR-HND opportunities for UA. The Northeast connecting traffic, coupled with New Jersey/Philly O&D, and if timed slightly different than the JFK NH flight and I bet both could survive quite well. Lets see if DL gets the DTW/ATL service instead.

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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu May 12, 2016 8:39 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 177):
I would think this wouldn't preclude EWR-HND opportunities for UA. The Northeast connecting traffic, coupled with New Jersey/Philly O&D, and if timed slightly different than the JFK NH flight and I bet both could survive quite well. Lets see if DL gets the DTW/ATL service instead.

It doesn't preclude EWR-HND being successful, but it just made UA's case for it much much harder.

DL didn't apply for DTW by the way. Just LAX/MSP/ATL in that order.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu May 12, 2016 8:54 pm

Quoting Polot (Reply 178):
DL didn't apply for DTW by the way.

Thanks, meant MSP. Agree with your points.

tortugamon
 
chiawei
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu May 12, 2016 10:39 pm

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 166):
Please explain how a duopoly is more competitive than a triopoly. How is, say, Boeing + Airbus more competitive than Boeing + Airbus + Bombardier?

So are you saying that Bombardier is already at same level as Airbus and Boeing offering same product line?

The fact in this case, Boeing and Airbus are cutting each other throat already. Because the product line is fully compete with each other.

You just proved my point that a equal strength duopoly is already good.

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 166):
Speaking of duopolies. Before the US and Australia had open skies, when the only competitors were UA and QF, it was common to pay $2,000 round-trip between the two countries. Last month UA was selling sub-$400 RT tickets from select cities. That is the power of competition, and that is something the DOT is charged with promoting.

This does not apply to Tokyo and US flights as alternative exists in Narita. You can always choose to fly into narita.

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 166):
Why don't you ask AA and NH?

Simple. Because AA and NH has JL and NH as their partner, what does DL has?

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 166):
They already are in a sense by overflying NRT from DTW/LAX/SEA and applying for more slots at the preferred Tokyo airport. But forcing them to stay at NRT while all of their competitors are at HND, a la Bermuda II, will put them at a significant competitive disadvantage in a market where they already are at a competitive disadvantage. That does not mean they should get three slots, but it also doesn't mean that they should be shut out completely.

Tough- if you offer weakest connection capability with no partners in Japan. Then get out. That is how competition works. The same argument applies here too.

I personally think that DL should get 0 HND slots because it has no partner in Japan and the O&D destination is weakest as compare to OW and Star.

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 166):
The Japanese government has already helped Star plenty by giving NH four slots. I have no problem with that. But it does mean that regardless of what the DOT does, Star will have the largest share of US/HND traffic.

If it were up to you, how would you award the slots? I guess 6 Star, 4 OW, 2 HA? If that is the case, I would love to hear why you think HA should receive more slots than DL.

Japanese helped NH, which is part of star. We are discussing UA not NH.

But there are people who prefer to fly on UA metal instead of NH and some are required due to company policies.

I will award 2 to HA over DL.

1. DL has failed on DTW, JFK/SEA. Wasted slots for what? DL is acting like a spoil child.
2. HA has been successful and should be rewarded for its good behavior.

2X UA- SFO/HND, EWR/HND
2X AA- LAX/HND, DFW/HND
2X HA.

This is most beneficial to the public. Allows more equal competition between alliances and also provide better capacity for the flying public.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Thu May 12, 2016 11:21 pm

Quoting chiawei (Reply 180):

This will be my last reply to you on this topic in this thread. You are welcome to PM me if you would like to continue our discussion, but currently we are engaged in our own side conversation that is not including anyone else.

Quoting chiawei (Reply 180):
The fact in this case, Boeing and Airbus are cutting each other throat already. Because the product line is fully compete with each other.

You just proved my point that a equal strength duopoly is already good.

On the contrary, I highly doubt Boeing would have sold 65 73Gs to United for $22M per frame if Bombardier had not also been in the running.

Quoting chiawei (Reply 180):
This does not apply to Tokyo and US flights as alternative exists in Narita.

I was just highlighting the consumer benefits of additional competition, which the DOT likes to promote when possible.

Quoting chiawei (Reply 180):
Simple. Because AA and NH has JL and NH as their partner, what does DL has?

The benefit of being a third competitor in a restricted market. Again, regardless of what you think should be done, that is something the DOT appreciates.

Quoting chiawei (Reply 180):
I personally think that DL should get 0 HND slots because it has no partner in Japan and the O&D destination is weakest as compare to OW and Star.

While I agree that MSP and ATL are relatively small O&D markets (and not necessarily the markets for which I would've applied if I were DL), LAX certainly is not.

There is also scant precedent, if there is indeed any, for the DOT to rescind a route authority that has been flown consistently for several years. For that reason, I would be surprised if any airline lost its previously awarded authority in this proceeding.

Quoting chiawei (Reply 180):
Japanese helped NH, which is part of star. We are discussing UA not NH.

The Japanese government indirectly helped UA by directly helping its revenue-sharing partner. Any slot awarded to NH is, in part, a slot also awarded to UA.

Quoting chiawei (Reply 180):
1. DL has failed on DTW, JFK/SEA. Wasted slots for what? DL is acting like a spoil child.
2. HA has been successful and should be rewarded for its good behavior.

That makes sense in the context of night slots, but at this point there is little evidence to suggest that daytime flights to HND will perform anywhere near as abysmally as the night flights have. If anything, I would expect them to outperform their NRT counterparts.

Also, it was AA that was awarded JFK-HND. They even dropped JFK-NRT to prop up HND, and it was still a flop.

If we see airlines fail even with the better slot timings, then you will have a point.

Quoting chiawei (Reply 180):
2X UA- SFO/HND, EWR/HND
2X AA- LAX/HND, DFW/HND
2X HA.

This is most beneficial to the public. Allows more equal competition between alliances and also provide better capacity for the flying public.

Personally, I disagree that awarding 33% of available slots to a state with less than 0.5% of the population (and that is poorly located as a connecting hub for the rest of the country) is "most beneficial to the public." Similarly, I don't see how completely shutting one alliance out of a market will result in "more equal competition between alliances."

Again, if you want to continue this discussion, I will be happy to do so in private  
 
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LAXintl
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 13, 2016 12:35 am

Per tomorrows Aviation Daily -

ANA will use its daytime slots for flights to ORD, JFK and Honolulu, and the nighttime flight for Los Angeles service.
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globalcabotage
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 13, 2016 1:58 am

Don't be surprised if JL does ORD and JFK. SFO means nothing to JL, but ORD and JFK are 1 hubs that AA did not apply for (probably a good reason did to JVs).

And for those that think DL will get all 3 slots, while skipping DTW and SEA are spending too much time smoking legalized plants in WA or CO.

AA will get LA and DFW. UA will get SFO. The others, not all DL.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 13, 2016 2:17 am

Quoting globalcabotage (Reply 183):
AA will get LA and DFW. UA will get SFO. The others, not all DL.

Agreed. My bet is that HA gets 1x HNL while DL gets LAX and ATL.
 
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jetblastdubai
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 13, 2016 3:15 am

..

Quoting globalcabotage (Reply 183):
SFO means nothing to JL

If UA ends up being the only player in SFO-HND, one of the biggest US-HND markets according to some, they might need to up the aircraft to a 3-class 744.
 
klwright69
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 13, 2016 5:58 am

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 185):
If UA ends up being the only player in SFO-HND, one of the biggest US-HND markets according to some, they might need to up the aircraft to a 3-class 744.

Anything is possible. But with the 747's exiting, do you really think it will see new markets?
 
HALFA
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 13, 2016 7:55 am

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 174):
There was no reason for DL - or anyone else - to apply for a route that they knew HA would apply for, and a route that is not as beneficial to a majority of the American public and business community when compared to mainland-HND flights.

Are you suggesting that airlines would never apply for a route that they know another airline has applied for? Really? Interesting theory. I wonder why both DL and AA asked for and received HND-LAX. And are you really trying to suggest that airlines are only interested in flying routes that they perceive to be beneficial to the American public? Airlines are in the business of making money. I really don't think they care whether their route benefits the American public and business community as long as it makes money.

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 174):
despite protestations otherwise, Hawaii-Haneda is a niche market, beneficial only to well-heeled Japanese tourists and the tourist industry - and, even then, mostly to a local tourist industry located solely on the islands. HA may do very well on its HND-Hawaii flights, but the benefits of that success do not spread past a limited community and the airline itself

The Japan-Hawaii market is not a niche market. The Japan-Hawaii market is the largest market between the two countries. This market benefits everyone in Hawaii and we are US citizens. A HND-HNL/KOA route will benefit far more Americans than a DL HND-MSP route would.

Quoting chiawei (Reply 180):
1. DL has failed on DTW, JFK/SEA. Wasted slots for what? DL is acting like a spoil child.
2. HA has been successful and should be rewarded for its good behavior.

  

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 184):
My bet is that HA gets 1x HNL while DL gets LAX and ATL.

I don't see that happening since ATL was DL's 3rd choice.
Hawaiian Airlines Since 1929...........
 
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jetblastdubai
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 13, 2016 12:16 pm

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 186):
But with the 747's exiting, do you really think it will see new markets?

If the demand exists, then no reason not to put a 744 on the route and keep them there until they're finally retired. Granted, it wouldn't be forever but eventually the 77Ws and/or 35Js will show up to replace the 744 if the demand is still there.

HND is probably one of the most fiercely sought-after markets US carriers have been trying to get into for a while. For any of them to not offer the most capacity possible would seem to indicate that the market wasn't quite as robust as everyone hoped it would be. For F and J, isn't the 744 a comparably good product compared to the rest of the newer fleet?

I realize that Y isn't anything to write home about but there's only 1 plane in UA's fleet can haul over 400 people from point A to point B and at a capacity-controlled airport, quantity trumps quality to some extent.
 
FSDan
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 13, 2016 1:26 pm

I wonder if JL will announce their route choices soon as well. If they came out saying they are moving HND-SFO to HND-ORD and starting HND-JFK (which I agree seems like a better move than keeping HND-SFO given the oneworld hubs), that seems like it could guarantee that UA keeps their SFO-HND flight since SFO is a large market to Japan.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 182):

Per tomorrows Aviation Daily -

ANA will use its daytime slots for flights to ORD, JFK and Honolulu, and the nighttime flight for Los Angeles service.

Interesting! I guess that lends credence to the assertions that there are many people who do like the timing of the late night HND-LAX.
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a380787
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 13, 2016 2:02 pm

Quoting FSDan (Reply 189):

Interesting! I guess that lends credence to the assertions that there are many people who do like the timing of the late night HND-LAX.

The US version and the JP version of HND-LAX is quite different, esp on the westbound side.

DL LAX-HND lands 2225
AA LAX-HND lands 2230

but ANA lands at 0500 allowing a full day of business ahead. Eastbound they're wingtip-to-wingtip, landing at 1805 / 1845 / 1920.
 
alfa164
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 13, 2016 2:07 pm

Quoting HALFA (Reply 187):
re you suggesting that airlines would never apply for a route that they know another airline has applied for?

Thank you for putting words in my mouth - I would have never thought of that!

No, I am suggesting that airlines would apply for a route that the DOT would be inclined to approve, based on published criteria. There is a reason why HND-Hawaii was either not requested or requested as a last choice by the majors.

Quoting HALFA (Reply 187):
The Japan-Hawaii market is not a niche market. The Japan-Hawaii market is the largest market between the two countries. This market benefits everyone in Hawaii and we are US citizens

With less than half-a-percent of the US population, and wanting fully one-third of the available slots to the premium Japanese market, apparently greed citizens as well.

Considering how well HA says its nighttime slots are performing, there is no reason to deprive the rest of the country reasonalbe daytime access to HND. And it is a niche market, made up almost totally of Japanese tourists. Of course, any HA employee may claim that that makes it more valuable than flights from the mainland.... but that is for the DOT to decide.

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 181):
I disagree that awarding 33% of available slots to a state with less than 0.5% of the population (and that is poorly located as a connecting hub for the rest of the country) is "most beneficial to the public." Similarly, I don't see how completely shutting one alliance out of a market will result in "more equal competition between alliances."

        
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klwright69
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 13, 2016 2:51 pm

Quoting chiawei (Reply 180):
I personally think that DL should get 0 HND slots because it has no partner in Japan and the O&D destination is weakest as compare to OW and Star.
Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 58):
My gut feeling is that...
DL will get 2-3 (def LAX)
AA will get 1-2 (def DFW)
UA will get 0-1

It would be without precedent for UA to lose their current route. A startling outcome no one else would see coming. I am not sure why you definitely feel DFW will have the Haneda route. Funny. We have both extremes here. Someone saying DL should get nothing while another saying UA could get nothing.
 
LAXtoATL
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 13, 2016 3:28 pm

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 192):
It would be without precedent for UA to lose their current route. A startling outcome no one else would see coming. I am not sure why you definitely feel DFW will have the Haneda route. Funny. We have both extremes here. Someone saying DL should get nothing while another saying UA could get nothing.

The difference is one of is saying what is likely to happen based on DOT criteria and the other one is just saying what they want to happen based on their own criteria.

I am record saying I believe UA will retain SFO-HND, but it is certainly more likely they end up with 0 as opposed to 2 awards. I know a lot of people have mentioned the precedent of rescinding a current route, but the DOT gave themselves cover for this by declaring this a new proceeding and treating the daytime slot award as entirely new process from the previous nighttime awards. Of course they will take into consideration existing operations during their deliberation, but it will have less effect than if they were treating this as an extension to the previous award. I don't think it would be that startling of an outcome if UA didn't retain SFO-HND, they certainly saw the possibility when the process was proposed and why they objected to the process (as did AA). Again, I'm not saying it is likely to play out that way but a definite forseable possibility. The precedent sword also cuts both ways, easy for DOT to leave two of the existing routes as nighttime authorities (which I believe will happen). I think HA HNL-HND for sure and either UA SFO-HND or AA LAX-HND (I think we all can agree nighttime slots are only viable to/from Hawaii and West Coast) so it would make zero sense to consider any of the new gateway proposals for two nighttime slots.

The reason I see DFW as definite is because I believe DOT will look for geographic diversity amongst its awards, while AA listed LAX as its preferred gateway (I see the DOT first and foremost awarding LAX daytime to DL as its second easiest decision behind HA nighttime to HNL). I might be wrong but AA's DFW hub can generate more demand to Tokyo than any other gateway not on the west coast. So, in the mind of DOT I think they will view AA's DFW proposal as one of the strongest proposals (wanting geographic diversity before doubling and tripling service to cities). Also, when looking at competitive balance while DL is certainly the underdog with no HND slots shared with a JV partner, AA would be next in line as JL only has two slots to NH's four. So, AA is def getting one route if not two. (I know I ignored HA, but regardless of what some HA supporters feel, they do not come close to presenting a strong case for additional slots - the DOT criteria is greatest good to US traveling public NOT airline profitability or Japanese tourists benefits. Honolulu citizens traveling to Japan is already minimal compared to other cities being considered without including one-stop options from neighboring cities/states)
 
a380787
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 13, 2016 3:44 pm

ANA announcing JFK most likely means

HA - 1 - HNL
UA - 1 - SFO
AA - 2 - LAX DFW
DL - 2 - LAX XXX

Now the "XXX" for DL is the wildcard. I'm of the opinion that DL will look past MSP and go straight to ATL. Their objective is the public benefit. Carrier preference of MSP > ATL is just that, a preference, not an absolute. ANA already announced ORD as well, so there's no shortage of Midwest service and feed.

Just to be extreme hypothetically : if DL requested LAX > SLC > ATL, or AA requested LAX > PHX > DFW, does anyone realistically expect SLC/PHX to get it before ATL/DFW ?

side irony : assuming EWR fails to win, the closest hub with HND service that can feed the northeast is actually .... Top
 
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LAXintl
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 13, 2016 4:04 pm

Drum rolls please......


DOT decided to grants HA request for the night time pair. DOT found that since no carrier actually requested the available nighttime slot pair, awarding the slot to HA is consistent with regulatory process.

DOT however did say while this does not prejudice the outcome of the ongoing carrier selection proceeding for daytime slot pairs, all participating airlines continue to have the opportunity to challenge Hawaiian’s application for daytime authority and department would decide their award consistent with what is best for public interest.

OST-2016-0048
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HNLPointShoot
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 13, 2016 4:06 pm

Hawaii News Now is reporting this morning that USDOT has awarded one HND slot to HA (the one nighttime slot that no other airline wanted.)

Now to wait and see if they'll also get a daytime slot …   
 
a380787
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 13, 2016 5:06 pm

Per OST-2016-0048 ----

"Decision: The Department has decided to grant the motion of Hawaiian and allocate to Hawaiian one
nighttime slot pair for its proposed service in the Kona-Haneda market, three times weekly, and the
Honolulu-Haneda market four-times weekly"

If HA fails to win any daytime slots, this means sub-daily HNL service. Does HA want that at all ? Does HA have any leeway to switch it to daily HNL-HND, or that'll require yet another round of DOT proceedings, motions, and objections ?
 
Sightseer
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 13, 2016 5:19 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 197):
If HA fails to win any daytime slots, this means sub-daily HNL service. Does HA want that at all ? Does HA have any leeway to switch it to daily HNL-HND, or that'll require yet another round of DOT proceedings, motions, and objections ?

I will be quite interested to see how the day slots are awarded for this very reason. 3x weekly KOA/4x weekly HNL was HA's second choice, and rightly so IMO. I wonder if they'll still accept this award if they don't receive day slots for HNL.
 
a380787
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots Part 2

Fri May 13, 2016 5:28 pm

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 198):
I wonder if they'll still accept this award if they don't receive day slots for HNL.

The irony is delicious - they begged DOT to do their bidding, then potentially flip 180 and say we don't accept anything less than daily HNL.

DOT granted their wish exactly as requested, so they don't have a right to complain anymore.

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