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FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 4

Tue Apr 05, 2016 11:13 am

Please continue discussion from Part 3:
FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 3 (by 777ER Mar 25 2016 in Civil Aviation)
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WIederling
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 4

Wed Apr 06, 2016 6:46 am

klwright69 in part 3 :
Yes, I saw that video on liveleaks and posted it a long time ago in the thread.


IT was easier to (re)find this on youtube than in the posting backtrack to this thead.
IMU there is only this one original video around. Others are derived work
or (inconclusive) simulations, news hacks doing their stuff.
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kelvin933
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 4

Thu Apr 07, 2016 7:42 am

Rosaviatsia is now claiming that the horizontal stabilizer transitioned to nose-down pitch at a height 3000ft resulting in a crash. It is not stated whether the transition was commanded by the crew.


http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...stabiliser-shifted-to-nose-423927/
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Buyantukhaa
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 4

Thu Apr 07, 2016 12:06 pm

I think PilotAydin's theory (loss of orientation in climb/acceleration, tricking (one of) the pilots into thinking pitch angle is too high, followed by nose down command without checking instruments, similar to Tatarstan) is still very much in line with the leaked (but unconfirmed) transcripts:

01:40:40 Don't worry
01:40:45 Don't try it! (several times)
01:40:50 Pull up!
01:40:54 (shout)
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klwright69
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 4

Thu Apr 07, 2016 1:56 pm

Quoting WIederling (Reply 1):
IT was easier to (re)find this on youtube than in the posting backtrack to this thead.
IMU there is only this one original video around. Others are derived work
or (inconclusive) simulations, news hacks doing their stuff.

Well we are referring to the same video. It is taken from some distance from the airport so it has a unique visual perspective of the accident. Very insightful and tragic of course. So what is the latest on this accident?
 
dubaiamman243
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 4

Fri Apr 08, 2016 1:34 pm

Report sheds light on FlyDubai crash

Russia's civil aviation authority issued its first report Friday 8-4-16 on last month's crash of a FlyDubai plane in southwestern Russia, shedding light on what caused the sudden descent that killed all 62 people on board.
The Interstate Aviation Committee said that a nose-down shift in the horizontal stabilizer occurred after the crew had climbed to 900 meters (3,000 feet) after a second aborted landing during strong, gusty winds.
"Subsequent actions of the crew could not prevent the aircraft's collision with the ground," the report said, adding that the Boeing 737-800 had a pitch exceeding 50 degrees and a speed of more than 600 kilometers (360 miles) per hour when it crashed.

The aviation authority said its investigation into the March 19 crash in the port city Rostov-on-Don was ongoing, with help from pilots from Russia, the United States and the United Arab Emirates.
In a statement, FlyDubai CEO Ghaith al-Ghaith said the budget airline was aware of the information that has been released. "We share the desire to get conclusive findings as quickly as possible," al-Ghaith said, without discussing the results of the preliminary report.

source: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/08/the-a...light-on-flydubai-plane-crash.html
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migair54
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 4

Fri Apr 08, 2016 6:58 pm

In todays update the MAK stated that both approaches were flown in manual controls, did they really try to fly manual ILS with such a bad weather?? that's a very bad decision by the crew if true, the Autopilot flies much better in bad weather.

Apparently when they levelled off at 3000 feet they moved the trim too much nose down, up to 5 and create -1G, and the plane start diving with up to 50 degrees nose down at the moment of the crash, all of this manual flying in bad weather is very strange. I hope we can listen in the CVR more about this because it's not normal.
 
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jumbojim747
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 4

Sun Apr 10, 2016 12:36 pm

Just watched an episode of crash investigation.
It was the northwest 747 400 rudder hard over incident.
The rudder design on the 747 was what saved them as the rudder is 2 fold upper and lower rudder.
This is a great design and suprised its not implemented on all aircraft.
Not saying that this is the cause of the flydubai crash just yet but a redundacey that should be there.
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spacecadet
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 4

Mon Apr 11, 2016 6:21 am

Quoting jumbojim747 (Reply 7):
Not saying that this is the cause of the flydubai crash just yet but a redundacey that should be there.

Almost no modern airliners have split rudders (and the ones that do don't have it for safety reasons). Regardless, it has no bearing on this accident. The horizontal and vertical stabilizers are two totally different things.
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jumbojim747
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 4

Mon Apr 11, 2016 7:04 am

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 8):

Yes i know they are different never said they wherethe same.
All im saying its a good feature to have regardless.

[Edited 2016-04-11 00:05:42]
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mcdu
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 4

Mon Apr 11, 2016 11:20 am

Quoting migair54 (Reply 6):
In todays update the MAK stated that both approaches were flown in manual controls, did they really try to fly manual ILS with such a bad weather?? that's a very bad decision by the crew if true, the Autopilot flies much better in bad weather.



Maybe I'm old school and prefer to fly all approaches unless visibility dictates an auto land. Hand flying the approach gives me better feel versus clicking off the AP at 200' on a gusty approach and then trying to put in control inputs to stay on path. I don't believe the decision to hand fly was a bad decision whatsoever.
 
CF-CPI
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 4

Tue Apr 12, 2016 2:59 pm

Recent update from Air Transport World:
http://atwonline.com/safety/flydubai...ation-reveals-abrupt-descent-crash

"Approximately 90 min. after the first approach, pilots attempted a second hand-flown approach to Runway 22, but decided to abort when descending through approximately 700 ft., 2 nm from the runway end. The pilots initiated a go-around with full takeoff power, according to the IAC."

Would it be standard protocol to go-around with full takeoff power? Either way, is it a given that pitch-up would occur as a result? At this time, the general view is that a nose down trim initiated the subsequent dive, but was a full power g.a. really necessary, and did it initiate the fatal chain of events?
 
mandala499
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 4

Tue Apr 12, 2016 4:50 pm

Quoting migair54 (Reply 6):

In todays update the MAK stated that both approaches were flown in manual controls, did they really try to fly manual ILS with such a bad weather?? that's a very bad decision by the crew if true, the Autopilot flies much better in bad weather.

Nothing wrong in trying to fly a bad weather approach with no autopilot... And yes... you don't want to be surprised by the A/P suddenly saying "here, you have it" or that you have to take over and then say to yourself, "what the heck"...

Quoting CF-CPI (Reply 11):
At this time, the general view is that a nose down trim initiated the subsequent dive, but was a full power g.a. really necessary, and did it initiate the fatal chain of events?

Somatogravic illusion remains the strongest suspect as to why nose down trim was initiated...
So fatigue + G/As + long wait... and there you have it...
Full TO/GA was not necessary, but then they could have just been tired and went "ah heck! press the TOGA button and let me follow the flight director"... only someone thought a few moments later, "eh hang on, this can't be true"...
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
mcdu
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 4

Tue Apr 12, 2016 6:27 pm

What's the button labeled? TO/GA -take off/ go around. They were going around. Button push of the TOGA switch is SOP. Not sure if the 737NG has single push for standard GA and 2k from climb, second push for full TOGA thrust like the Boeings I have flown. Keep in mind they went around most likely for unstable due to wind shear symptoms. That sounds like an excellent time to use the double TOGA button push for provide the greatest distance between the airplane and the ground.

My experience in 737-300's and -500's is that lightly loaded it will definitely be a rocket going up. I am interested in what took place after level off. Where was the speed bug and flap configuration?
 
F9Animal
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 4

Tue Apr 12, 2016 8:30 pm

It's starting to look like spatial disorientation could be a big factor. I mean, in cloud cover, I can see perhaps the disorientation from being tired and fatigued.

We're there any icing conditions? Sorry, I haven't been following the updates lately. Could ice have built up on the sensors?
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WIederling
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 4

Tue Apr 12, 2016 8:44 pm

Quoting jumbojim747 (Reply 7):
Just watched an episode of crash investigation.

I've a nit to pick with these entertainment "investigations".

IMHO judging / interpreting from secondary documentation that was created for
an entertaining environment is dangerous.
They sex up some factoids or invent them from whole cloth. All presented
in an environment of pointing out established behaviour in a breathless tone
of imminent danger. Completely unuseable for gaining true insights.
( Same actually goes for most of the US produced documentaries of whatever topic.)

In all cases go back to the official investigation documentation.
Murphy is an optimist
 
ODwyerPW
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 4

Tue Apr 12, 2016 11:11 pm

Quoting WIederling (Reply 15):
I've a nit to pick with these entertainment "investigations".

I agree with your sentiments...
However, watch 'The West' from Ken Burns. Good 9 part documentary with a balanced of view of history. Not bad for Murican produced.w

That said, I've learned allot from the discussions of the accident here in these threads.
I have no doubt that I am predisposed to the spatial disorientation mentioned in these threads. I'd never cut the mustard as a pilot.
learning never stops.
 
mandala499
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 4

Wed Apr 13, 2016 4:00 am

Quoting WIederling (Reply 15):
In all cases go back to the official investigation documentation.

Oh those ACI guys dropped the ball in terms of budget and quality by about the 2008 season, huge budget cuts... hence the results...
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
WIederling
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 4

Wed Apr 13, 2016 7:36 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 17):

ROFL.
next season:
The new Sitcom.
In bed with Boeing.

Though I don't hink the NTSB has lost all that much.

The problem IMHO is that an increasing number of recipients
expect "easy, dumbed down information presentation".

Lots of information is not accessible without creating a
knowledge foundation beforehand.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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caoimhin
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 4

Wed Apr 13, 2016 4:22 pm

Quoting WIederling (Reply 18):
Lots of information is not accessible without creating a
knowledge foundation beforehand.

This is my feeling as well. Many of those are broadcast to appeal to mainstream audiences with no knowledge whatsoever of aviation.

What's more, they try to tell a dramatic story rather than facilitate an academic discussion. For your non-enthusiasts, the story can be more captivating sometimes than the more technical details of the investigation. While there is indeed a story to be told, the writers would rather it appear as sensational as an action film rather than what it may have been in reality.

Still, I've watched and enjoyed many of these shows. If you can discriminate between the "narrative padding" sensationalism and the (however light) technical discussion, you can learn fascinating and useful details--like that bit about the dual rudder design above. It may even prompt you to independently dig a bit deeper and learn more about whatever physics/mechanical/human factors principle is discussed.

On the issue of American documentaries generally, you're more likely to find quality educational content on YouTube documentaries than on US mainstream networks. Truly educational programming can be bland and doesn't generate as much advertising revenue as "WORLD'S ____IEST _____". So a lot of the better content got relegated to the second-tier networks (for example, I believe there are several "History Channel" channels now with the better content on the non-headlining ones). Anyway, YouTube, for all its blemishes, has some shining gems.
 
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litz
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 4

Wed Apr 13, 2016 5:56 pm

Quoting caoimhin (Reply 19):
On the issue of American documentaries generally, you're more likely to find quality educational content on YouTube documentaries than on US mainstream networks. Truly educational programming can be bland and doesn't generate as much advertising revenue as "WORLD'S ____IEST _____".

Exceptions to this are PBS documentaries, which are public TV/advertising free, and HBO documentaries, which are pay-TV (and also advertising free).
 
DDR
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 4

Wed Apr 13, 2016 7:58 pm

So based on the videos, was the plane on fire during its plunge to earth, or was all the light coming from the plane just the normal lighting?
 
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litz
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 4

Wed Apr 13, 2016 8:02 pm

I think the consensus is it's light bloom from landing lights ... the combination of cloud/fog and the natural sensitivity of low light cameras to bright lights, makes it appear as if there's a fire or flame.
 
Pihero
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 4

Thu Apr 14, 2016 10:09 pm

Quoting Buyantukhaa (Reply 3):
think PilotAydin's theory (loss of orientation in climb/acceleration, tricking (one of) the pilots into thinking pitch angle is too high, followed by nose down command without checking instruments, similar to Tatarstan) is still very much in line with the leaked (but unconfirmed) transcripts:

I agree, but the original *theory* comes from both me and mandala.
The silence from the investigators are a sure sign that they are no longer considering that a technical failure is a factor.

There have been too many assumptions which have polluted the threads.
What we can say is that :
A/- An approach was initiated after the airc raft aborted a firest time and spent a long time in the hold waiting for a weather improvement.
B/- The weather in itself wasn't very *adverse* : it was windy with some gusts. The problem is that trhe airport of Rostov is at the end of a very narrow bay, a situation that would increase the unstabilitry of the air, exaggerating the effects of windshears and making the approach quite difficult because or the turbulence then created ( contrarily to the general consensus, turbulence had a far greater role than windshear ).
C/- The approach was, as per SOPs -as we know them - a LHS manual - cum - HUD ILS
D/- The captain initiated a go-around at some 550 ft, with a visual on the runway - the aircraft was visible on a camera - that's 300 ft from their DH.
E/- IMO using the HUD for going around needs a lot of experience of the display. If anything, the combination of artificial horizon, flight path vector , Flight director, attitude... etc... can be both confusing and more likely to promote sensory illusions.
F/- back to my original theory
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Buyantukhaa
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 4

Fri Apr 15, 2016 8:38 am

Quoting Pihero (Reply 23):
I agree, but the original *theory* comes from both me and mandala.

My apologies - I didn't properly check earlier contributions than his.
I scratch my head, therefore I am.
 
OMP777X
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RE: FlyDubai B738 Crashes On Approach In Russia Part 4

Wed Apr 20, 2016 5:43 pm

http://mak-iac.org/upload/iblock/19b...terim%20Report%20A6-FDN%20(en).pdf

Here ^ is a link to the interim report on the crash. It sounds like the trim switch was run for 12 seconds resulting in the fatal nose down command. May all of those aboard who were lost rest in peace, and may their families somehow find comfort after their loss.

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OMP777X
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