New Zealand Aviation Thread Part 175

qf789 · Tue Apr 05, 2016 4:13 pm

Continue discussion here

New Zealand Aviation Thread Part 174 (by 777ER Mar 14 2016 in Civil Aviation)

kiwiandrew · Tue Apr 05, 2016 6:09 pm

Humble pie time for me - posted by NZ107 in the previous thread

So it seems like NZ announced AKL-MNL nonstop..

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story...-to-new-zealand-coming-in-december

763 obviously, 3x weekly.

In spite of oft repeated rumours I did not think we would see this. I expect great excitement in the office today from my Filipino colleagues ... followed immediately by "But we'll still go with whoever is cheapest". Anyway, we certainly can't say NZ are not doing their best to get everything they can out of the dear old 767

mariner · Tue Apr 05, 2016 7:25 pm

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 1):
So it seems like NZ announced AKL-MNL nonstop..

I'm puzzled. That link is the only reference I can find to Manila service having been announced. I can't find anything on the airline website, nor anything in any of the NZ papers.

Perhaps someone jumped the gun?

mariner

kiwiandrew · Tue Apr 05, 2016 7:55 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 2):
Perhaps someone jumped the gun?

I think you're right. Normally I don't believe anything until I see a press release ( and in the case of some airlines, such as QR, not even then, LOL). However, this article is too specific ( in my mind) to be completely made up... they 'quote' Mr Luxon, they mention the equipment and the frequency, so I suspect someone has 'got in first' .

zkncj · Tue Apr 05, 2016 7:59 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 2):
Perhaps someone jumped the gun?

Could of happened - it was the case with Ho chi minh city.

Does this mean the 763 retirement is old hold?

77west · Tue Apr 05, 2016 8:53 pm

Quoting zkncj (Reply 4):
Does this mean the 763 retirement is old hold?

With the low cost of fuel at present, it is actually a smart move to use them to test the waters of new routes, especially to lower-yield markets like MNL

Unclekoru · Tue Apr 05, 2016 9:27 pm

It looks like the B1900 is making a return to AKL skies, albeit temporary. WAG-AKL-WAG currently showing as 3 weekday B1900 return flights when I looked to book during May.

Zkpilot · Tue Apr 05, 2016 10:17 pm

From the previous thread:
ZKOJQ:
Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 187):

Wouldn't withholding landing fees just result in aircraft being repossessed, or at least impounded?
Not sure why you are quoting me as I didn't say anything about withholding landing fee's?

Zkpilot · Tue Apr 05, 2016 10:30 pm

Good news on the MNL (although I too am surprised that it hasn't come through officially from NZ itself).
What a busy couple of years at NZ!
IIRC they are still to announce 1 more Americas destination (with the success of IAH I wouldn't be surprised if they announce DEN or maybe ORD).

sunrisevalley · Tue Apr 05, 2016 11:17 pm

Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 8):
IIRC they are still to announce 1 more Americas destination (with the success of IAH I wouldn't be surprised if they announce DEN or maybe ORD).

If this happens I believe it will coincide with introduction of the TEN engine and perhaps a higher percentage premium seating configuration. The conundrum I have is how a wider seat in Y can be achieved . ORD-AKL will be about 16hrs . A long time in a 17" seat. I wonder about splitting the Y cabin into a combination of 8 and 9 abreast.

Zkpilot · Tue Apr 05, 2016 11:31 pm

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 9):
Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 8):
IIRC they are still to announce 1 more Americas destination (with the success of IAH I wouldn't be surprised if they announce DEN or maybe ORD).

If this happens I believe it will coincide with introduction of the TEN engine and perhaps a higher percentage premium seating configuration. The conundrum I have is how a wider seat in Y can be achieved . ORD-AKL will be about 16hrs . A long time in a 17" seat. I wonder about splitting the Y cabin into a combination of 8 and 9 abreast.

I'm assuming you are talking about the 789 but with uprated engines?
I wonder if they are thinking about offering some kind of space+ seat like how UA etc have with extra space (in NZs case that would be 8 across on the 787 and 9 across on the 777 and an extra inch or 2 of pitch).

kiwiandrew · Wed Apr 06, 2016 12:09 am

MNL now confirmed on NZ website as 3 x weekly and year round

http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/direct-flights-to-manila

Zkpilot · Wed Apr 06, 2016 12:26 am

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 11):
MNL now confirmed on NZ website as 3 x weekly and year round

http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/direct-flights-to-manila

and takes the total international destinations to 32.

I am hoping that they do time it to connect with the EZE service as that would make sense with trying to make AKL a hub between South America and Asia.

Good to see that it will be year round also. I bet NZ was wishing (well they have for a while) that they had kept more of their 763s!

sunrisevalley · Wed Apr 06, 2016 1:05 am

Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 10):
I'm assuming you are talking about the 789 but with uprated engines?

Not so far as thrust is concerned. The TEN engine will have an improved fuel burn which will improve the range by a few hundred nm. So far as I can see the 789 TOW out of DEN will be limited to ~235t. for a late evening takeoff. This should allow ~31t payload on a 14hr 15min, flight. Possibly the 77E might work slightly better payload wise. But it's fuel burn would put it at a cost disadvantage.

mariner · Wed Apr 06, 2016 3:39 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 2):
Perhaps someone jumped the gun?

I guess someone did jump the gun - LOL - or perhaps media embargoes don't apply in the Phillipines.

Good news. I wonder where is next in the Asian quadrant of the Pacific Rim.

mariner

DavidByrne · Wed Apr 06, 2016 3:56 am

Am I the only one who has a slight anxiety about the new NZ service to MNL? I'm really happy to see them continue to expand, and I assume that they've done their homework, but . . .

* Even if there are 40,000 Filipinos now living in NZ, providing 36,000 seats a year each in competition with PR is a lot of seats to fill if they're one of the main target markets;
* NZers don't by and large have a history of holidaying in the Philippines;
* Business links with the Philippines are not widely discussed in the media, and I assume this is because they're not extensive;
* The Philippines is by no means a wealthy country compared with some of NZ's other Asian destinations.

I wish them well with this, but it seems like a bit of a punt to me . . . ?

ZaphodHarkonnen · Wed Apr 06, 2016 4:11 am

Quoting davidbyrne (Reply 15):
I wish them well with this, but it seems like a bit of a punt to me . . . ?

Seems like it's the perfect time to take such a risk. Fully paid off planes, cheap fuel, rest of business doing well, etc. If it works, great. If it doesn't, shrug.

xiaotung · Wed Apr 06, 2016 4:40 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 14):
Good news. I wonder where is next in the Asian quadrant of the Pacific Rim.

I have been wondering the same. Stephen Jones recently travelled to Chengdu, China to meet with officials who were even willing to subsidize direct service in some form. If MNL can make it, I am thinking why not CTU, a CA hub to join the existing CA alliance and home of pandas.

Motorhussy · Wed Apr 06, 2016 4:46 am

Quoting davidbyrne (Reply 15):
I wish them well with this, but it seems like a bit of a punt to me

Know what you mean but there is an upside...
* Exports to the Philippines in 2014 NZ$750-million
* Imports from the Philippines in 3014 NZ$129-million
* GDP growth in 2014 of 6.1%
* We have an existing FTA with the Philippines
* It has well developed tourism infrastructure
* English is their lingua franca
* Working holiday scheme exists between the two countries
* 2012 year there were 1,200 Filipina/o students studying here
* Predominantly christian by culture in the same way that NZ is
* Plus the 40K Philippines people resident here

I'd be up for a visit to the Philippines in the coming year. Friends have just got back from a scuba diving trip to Dumaguete in central Philippines and said it was incredible.

I hold out a good hope for the route as (coupled with the reasons ZaphodHarkonnen highlights above) it is a good time for it.

Motorhussy · Wed Apr 06, 2016 5:11 am

Quoting xiaotung (Reply 17):

Surely it would be more likely for NZ to compete on AKL-ICN with KE in codeshare with OZ, or perhaps AKL-TPE direct with 763's to compete with CI's routes via Oz in codeshare with BR?

xiaotung · Wed Apr 06, 2016 5:15 am

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 19):
Surely it would be more likely for NZ to compete on AKL-ICN with KE in codeshare with OZ, or perhaps AKL-TPE direct with 763's to compete with CI's routes via Oz in codeshare with BR?

It seems NZ have been more interested in new markets rather than more mature ones. I would rank even India before ICN & TPE as they don't like competition.

mariner · Wed Apr 06, 2016 5:29 am

Quoting davidbyrne (Reply 15):
I wish them well with this, but it seems like a bit of a punt to me . . . ?

Oh, I think it's a punt, just as I think SGN is a bit of a punt, but I'm still pleased to see it - and SGN.

The more obvious choices might be Korea, Malaysia and Thailand, but they'd face fairly strong competition unless they took another punt and didn't fly to the capital cities - HKT and BKI and PUS, say, and there's probably a case to be made for one, maybe even two, of those.

But on MNL, I'm with Flight Centre, who may have been a voice in this:

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU160...he-philippines-just-got-easier.htm

"Travel to the Philippines Just Got Easier

Flight Centre reported a 20 percent increase in bookings to the Philippines in 2015, compared to 2014 With Air New Zealand's announcement today of a new direct route to Manila this growth is expected to continue Air New Zealand this morning announced they will be starting a new direct route between Auckland and Manila come December 2016, a move Flight Centre NZ are excited about.

Sean Berenson, Flight Centre NZ general manager product says, “Asia is a real growth area for international travel at the moment so we really welcome the new route, it’s going to open up a whole new destination for Kiwis to explore.”

Quoting xiaotung (Reply 17):
I have been wondering the same. Stephen Jones recently travelled to Chengdu, China to meet with officials who were even willing to subsidize direct service in some form

That scratches my itch, too.

mariner

[Edited 2016-04-05 22:33:24]

Motorhussy · Wed Apr 06, 2016 5:34 am

Quoting xiaotung (Reply 20):
It seems NZ have been more interested in new markets rather than more mature ones.

While I agree with you on NZ's traditional market view, their view may be changing as they've already taken the low hanging fruit.

Quoting xiaotung (Reply 20):
I would rank even India before ICN & TPE as they don't like competition.

Aside from not really having any aircraft that could fly there non-stop without compromise, they'd be competing against their partner SQ with whom they codeshare to many sub-continent destinations. And which destination would NZ choose? Also, NZ's new AKL-MNL service competes with PR's service via CNS.

As an aside, transport minister Simon Bridges has something further to say about the Philippines.

Quote:
Last year nearly 21,000 New Zealanders travelled to the Philippines and more than 19,000 Filipinos visited New Zealand so it’s clear there’s growing demand for this service.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA160...ks-to-philippines-strengthened.htm

aerorobnz · Wed Apr 06, 2016 5:55 am

I'm very happy as a staunch advocate for MNL for a number of years. I have now got right SIN/SGN/MNL and EZE as predictions in the last few yeas. Even IAH was on my 3 year plan but not at the moment they announced it

Quoting davidbyrne (Reply 15):
Am I the only one who has a slight anxiety about the new NZ service to MNL? I'm really happy to see them continue to expand, and I assume that they've done their homework, but . . .

for 3 a week it's very low risk. If it doesn't grow by the time the 767s retire they can stop and have no issues (same as SQ to CBR/WLG with their old 772As). They will grow it and if it fails it will cost very little. Same as SGN/DPS/RAR-SYD,PER-CHC

Quoting davidbyrne (Reply 15):
NZers don't by and large have a history of holidaying in the Philippines;

I have travelled there lots. I expect it to be a repeat destination for many as it was for me. It has better beaches than more popular ones in the South Pacific and asia, it is cheaper than Thailand and it has plenty of Islands to visit (like people ho travel to a different island in Hawaii).

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 18):
I'd be up for a visit to the Philippines in the coming year

I will likely go there again for my Christmas holidays this year based on this announcement. I have more flights through MNL/CEB than I do through SYD/SIN combined. I fell in love wit the place after my first visit.

777ER · Wed Apr 06, 2016 6:53 am

Always knew MNL was a certain destination NZ would like to try, so pleased NZ have finally announced MNL. Some co-workers today were happy but are in the 'fly with the cheapest option' as with I am now.

zkncj · Wed Apr 06, 2016 7:26 am

Quoting xiaotung (Reply 20):
It seems NZ have been more interested in new markets rather than more mature ones. I would rank even India before ICN & TPE as they don't like competition.

India couldn't be done non-stop with an 767, it would need an 772/789. ICE and TPE should be both doable with an 763?

deconz · Wed Apr 06, 2016 8:04 am

Quoting zkncj (Reply 195):
Current Charges departing AKL
F1 Border Clearance Levy $3.37
IA Passenger Security Charge $10.58
KK Passenger Service Charge $18.22
WY Passenger Service Charge International $33.50
Total $65.67

WY is in fact and Australian airport arrival tax

Kiwirob · Wed Apr 06, 2016 8:14 am

Quoting davidbyrne (Reply 15):
* Even if there are 40,000 Filipinos now living in NZ, providing 36,000 seats a year each in competition with PR is a lot of seats to fill if they're one of the main target markets

A very large percentage of those 40,000 would be women married to kiwi men, most of them probably have NZ citizen children who wouldn't be counted amongst the 40,000. The total number of people with a relationship to the Philipines would be much higher Over 100,000 with spouses and children included.

It's worth a punt.

Unclekoru · Wed Apr 06, 2016 8:35 am

Quoting zkncj (Reply 25):
Quoting xiaotung (Reply 20):
It seems NZ have been more interested in new markets rather than more mature ones. I would rank even India before ICN & TPE as they don't like competition.

India couldn't be done non-stop with an 767, it would need an 772/789. ICE and TPE should be both doable with an 763?

Both have been operated previously by NZ with a 763, so yes.

I notice JQ's WLG-DUD route has also been increased from 3 a week to 4 a week with the introduction of a Monday service (edit - looks like it's a temporary increase)

[Edited 2016-04-06 01:35:59]

[Edited 2016-04-06 01:44:32]

ZK-NBT · Wed Apr 06, 2016 9:32 am

Quoting zkncj (Reply 25):

Heck India is long for a 772/789 let alone a 763. I'm on the fence with India, probably better served by SQ who can offer more destinations.

I do wonder will the last 3 763s hang around a while longer than planned?

Motorhussy · Wed Apr 06, 2016 10:42 am

Quoting ZK-NBT (Reply 29):
probably better served by SQ who can offer more destinations.

Agreed. There is no one destination in India from New Zealand that best serves the country that can't better be served from SIN with SQ.

BOM and DEL are great destinations but one ends up over-flying so many other desirable destinations.

SIN provides the perfect staging post to CCU, MAA, VTZ, TRV, CJB, COK, BLR and HYD, as well as DAC and CMB. Flying to DEL or BOM means backtracking to any of these and both are considerably further than YVR or IAH.

PA515 · Wed Apr 06, 2016 11:57 am

Quoting Unclekoru (Reply 6):
It looks like the B1900 is making a return to AKL skies, albeit temporary. WAG-AKL-WAG currently showing as 3 weekday B1900 return flights when I looked to book during May.

BEH on AKL-WAG from Sun 08 May to Mon 16 May. Could have something to do with the late delivery of ZK-MVK.

There have only been 9 ATR deliveries in the first three months of 2016, versus 19 in the same period last year.

PA515

cityairline · Wed Apr 06, 2016 4:25 pm

Seems like a lot of people are still stuck in the old image of Manila and the Philippines. For those of you who don't know it, the country has been going through a huge transformation in recent years, and will (probably) continue to do so for many more years to come.

*The Philippines was the fastest growing economy in Southeast Asia for three years in a row (2012-2014).
*The economy has grown by a whopping 43% since 2010.
*The economy is expected to tripple until 2030.
*It is also expected to jump from spot 5 to 2 during the period, overtaking Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand in size of economy.
*Two years ago Manila was the one major city with the most new hotels being under construction.
*Manila metro area, with 24 million inhabitants, is expected to become the worlds second largest in 20 years from now!

When it comes to Kiwis visiting the Philippines, although still not a big number, it has been growing by a healthy 17%, 12%, 12% during the last three years.

I just returned from MNL two months ago, and after posting some pictures of the city on my travel blog and Facebook, I've never heard so much "I am chocked, I never thought Manila looked like that!".
Maybe you should try it yourselves someday

If you're interested in more, just youtube "Philippines economy" and you'll find all you need.
Here is an example where they even mention slower growth in the rest of Asia, but continued strong growth in the Philippines:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ICCiO9EBfw

www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-snyrIm5V8

Alex

nascarnut · Wed Apr 06, 2016 5:03 pm

Will be interesting to see how long it takes for PR to react. It will depend of how much traffic they have been carrying AKL-CNS vs AKL-MNL to see if the will drop CNS and go AKL-MNL direct with a widebody.

kaitak · Wed Apr 06, 2016 6:39 pm

Can anyone give me an estimate of fuel burn of the 763 (I'm assuming about 5,000kg per hr in the cruise?) and the 789? Just out of pure interest; I had assumed that NZ might use their newest type on the MNL route, rather than the 763, particularly as cargo capacity would be very important in developing new Asian routes (and the 789's cargo capacity is presumably streets ahead of the 763).

zkncj · Wed Apr 06, 2016 7:10 pm

Quoting kaitak (Reply 34):
I had assumed that NZ might use their newest type on the MNL route, rather than the 763, particularly as cargo capacity would be very important in developing new Asian routes (and the 789's cargo capacity is presumably streets ahead of the 763).

The 789 also has around additional 80 seats to fill over the 763.

789
J - 18
PE - 21
Y - 263
Total - 302

763
J - 24
Y - 206
Total - 230

The 763's are old and own by NZ, so next to zero cost asset wises.

mariner · Wed Apr 06, 2016 7:47 pm

Several of the articles abut MNL are touting the number of new air service agreements that NZ has signed with various countries:

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA160...ks-to-philippines-strengthened.htm

"New Zealand’s links to Philippines strengthened

Mr Bridges says it’s another example of the Government’s International Air Transport Policy bringing benefits to New Zealand.

“Since the policy was implemented in 2012 more than 50 new or amended air agreements have been negotiated, bringing the total to 76. Most of the major airlines in the world are now able to operate services to New Zealand without restriction, with 18 new air routes announced in the past year alone.”

There was a previous article abut the latest group of air service agreements:

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/new...ticle.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11616679

"New airline routes opened up

New Zealand has signed 10 new or amended air services agreements, opening up the possibility of more direct connections with countries ranging from Turkey to The Bahamas.

Cabinet today has approved the signing of new air services agreements with Israel, Mauritius, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, Panama and Portugal.

An amendment to New Zealand's 1967 Air Transport Agreement with France. This introduces new route opportunities for New Zealand and New Caledonia airlines.

• The negotiation of a code-share arrangement with The Bahamas.

Turkey in particular offered strong potential.

"Allowing Turkish Airlines to fly here is an interesting opportunity. It's one of the fastest growing airlines in the world," said Bridges."

Few, if any, will see service except as code share, perhaps - I can't really see Air NZ flying to Israel, but a code share may be a possibility - but it's an interesting mix and the more agreements the better, I think.

mariner

ZKSUJ · Wed Apr 06, 2016 8:14 pm

Quoting PA515 (Reply 31):
BEH on AKL-WAG from Sun 08 May to Mon 16 May. Could have something to do with the late delivery of ZK-MVK.

Maybe they found out a BEH is the right size for it? I mean, who wants to go to WAG?

sunrisevalley · Wed Apr 06, 2016 8:21 pm

Quoting kaitak (Reply 34):
Can anyone give me an estimate of fuel burn of the 763 (I'm assuming about 5,000kg per hr in the cruise?) and the 789? Just out of pure interest

A 763 with 230 passengers , 10.5hr sector will burn about 4700kg fuel/ hour at cruise. A 789 same payload, same sector distance will burn a similar amount per hour.

zkojq · Wed Apr 06, 2016 9:09 pm

ZK-OXL has been ferried to XFW.

Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 7):
Not sure why you are quoting me as I didn't say anything about withholding landing fee's?

Oops, I was supposed to quote sunrisevalley with my comment about aircraft being impounded.

Zkpilot · Wed Apr 06, 2016 10:43 pm

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 38):
Quoting kaitak (Reply 34):
Can anyone give me an estimate of fuel burn of the 763 (I'm assuming about 5,000kg per hr in the cruise?) and the 789? Just out of pure interest

A 763 with 230 passengers , 10.5hr sector will burn about 4700kg fuel/ hour at cruise. A 789 same payload, same sector distance will burn a similar amount per hour.

So you can see that if you can't actually fill the aircraft (pax or cargo) then the 763 is actually the better aircraft to use since it is fully paid off and requires less cabin crew. Better to use the 789 on routes where it can be better utilized with it's larger capacity and payload. Further NZ's 763 apparently have around a 5% better fuel burn than standard ones due to the winglets and the dryers reducing weight...

Quoting ZKOJQ (Reply 39):

ZK-OXL has been ferried to XFW.

Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 7):
Not sure why you are quoting me as I didn't say anything about withholding landing fee's?

Oops, I was supposed to quote sunrisevalley with my comment about aircraft being impounded.

All good

flyingdoc787 · Thu Apr 07, 2016 2:07 am

Does anyone know which terminal in MNL NZ will use? T1? T3?

NZ1 · Thu Apr 07, 2016 9:13 am

Quoting PA515 (Reply 31):
Could have something to do with the late delivery of ZK-MVK

For info, ZK-MVL is actually being delivered before MVK, by a couple of weeks.

NZ1

Unclekoru · Thu Apr 07, 2016 11:10 pm

Quoting PA515 (Reply 31):
Quoting Unclekoru (Reply 6):
It looks like the B1900 is making a return to AKL skies, albeit temporary. WAG-AKL-WAG currently showing as 3 weekday B1900 return flights when I looked to book during May.

BEH on AKL-WAG from Sun 08 May to Mon 16 May. Could have something to do with the late delivery of ZK-MVK.

There have only been 9 ATR deliveries in the first three months of 2016, versus 19 in the same period last year.

PA515

It's showing the BEH on the route until early June now.

Changes to NZ's DUD-WLG schedule announced as well. Additional A320 flying.

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/378858/air-nz-boosts-seat-numbers

Nouflyer · Fri Apr 08, 2016 4:28 am

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 18):
there is an upside...
* Exports to the Philippines in 2014 NZ$750-million
* Imports from the Philippines in 3014 NZ$129-million
* GDP growth in 2014 of 6.1%
* We have an existing FTA with the Philippines
* It has well developed tourism infrastructure
* English is their lingua franca
* Working holiday scheme exists between the two countries
* 2012 year there were 1,200 Filipina/o students studying here
* Predominantly christian by culture in the same way that NZ is
* Plus the 40K Philippines people resident here

That being the case, there must be an overwhelming argument in favour of South Africa!

zkncj · Fri Apr 08, 2016 4:37 am

Quoting Nouflyer (Reply 44):
That being the case, there must be an overwhelming argument in favour of South Africa!

South Africa is an distance issue, you can't use the low cost 763 and most types would need an stop e.g. PER.

Nouflyer · Fri Apr 08, 2016 4:49 am

Quoting zkncj (Reply 45):
South Africa is an distance issue, you can't use the low cost 763 and most types would need an stop e.g. PER.

Sure, definitely. But you probably also get some higher-yielding feed between Australia and South Africa.

Virgin Australia failed on MEL-JNB because the 77W was far too big for the route and because at the time SAA was in bed with Qantas.

But with:

1) SA flying PER-JNB in partnership with VA, and
2) QF flying SYD-JNB

........then perhaps there is an argument for Air NZ to use the 789 to fly AKL-MEL-JNB, in partnership with BOTH SA and VA.

I'm unconvinced by Manila. The cost base of the 763 is tiny, but so is the market and so are the potential yields. Hawaiian left a couple of years ago in spite of having a massively bigger VFR customer base.

The bottom line, not that anyone is game to say it, is that the market is comprised of low-yield VFR, sex tourists and one-off low-yield outbound travellers, probably statistically in that order. That's a pretty depressing looking business model.

[Edited 2016-04-07 21:51:53]

kiwiandrew · Fri Apr 08, 2016 5:18 am

Quoting Nouflyer (Reply 44):
That being the case, there must be an overwhelming argument in favour of South Africa!

According to the Great Circle Mapper the shortest distance between AKL and JNB is not only longer than NZ's current longest sector ( IAH-AKL) but also goes outside of EDTO 330 limits. In addition, there are a lot more players offering New Zealand - South Africa ( QF / CX / SQ / EK and if the QR service from AKL-DOH actually happens they will probably be giving away seats on it at ridiculous fares). I know there were mutters that EZE doesn't qualify as a 'Pacific Rim' destination, but it's certainly a lot closer to the Pacific than JNB is .

kiwiandrew · Fri Apr 08, 2016 5:31 am

Quoting Nouflyer (Reply 46):
I'm unconvinced by Manila. The cost base of the 763 is tiny, but so is the market and so are the potential yields. Hawaiian left a couple of years ago in spite of having a massively bigger VFR customer base.

The bottom line, not that anyone is game to say it, is that the market is comprised of low-yield VFR, sex tourists and one-off low-yield outbound travellers, probably statistically in that order. That's a pretty depressing looking business model.

I understand your skepticism, I didn't expect this route announcement in spite of many rumours. It is a very price sensitive market ( one of my Filipino colleagues even joked that if Jetstar started a turboprop service AKL-NLK-BNE-CNS-POM-CEB-MNL they would book it over a non-stop AKL-MNL if it was $20 cheaper than the non-stop) .

However, I find it hard to believe that NZ are just throwing darts at a map and picking random destinations. I know someone who was a business analyst with them, and while they obviously did not share any confidential details with me, they have previously indicated to me the huge amount of modelling and data used in consideration of new routes,. They clearly believe that they can make this work, and the current Air NZ is a lot more hard headed than the airline of the past.

I am still a bit skeptical, and I certainly don't expect it to be the huge success that IAH seems to have become, but prepared to accept that the analysts probably know better than I do what the sums are.

If worst comes to worse, they can run it for a while then drop it from the network as they have done with other points in the past ( TPE/ICN/KUL/BKK/DFW/FRA/NGO/FUK to name a few ).

Based on what I have read so far, it certainly seems a lot less risky than JNB which is also notoriously price sensitive, would have much higher costs, and more competition.

[Edited 2016-04-07 22:32:41]

Nouflyer · Fri Apr 08, 2016 5:40 am

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 47):
According to the Great Circle Mapper the shortest distance between AKL and JNB is not only longer than NZ's current longest sector ( IAH-AKL) but also goes outside of EDTO 330 limits. In addition, there are a lot more players offering New Zealand - South Africa ( QF / CX / SQ / EK and if the QR service from AKL-DOH actually happens they will probably be giving away seats on it at ridiculous fares). I know there were mutters that EZE doesn't qualify as a 'Pacific Rim' destination, but it's certainly a lot closer to the Pacific than JNB is .

I totally agree, but I'd operate it via Melbourne in order to grow both yields and volume.

The "no more 1-stop" argument doesn't really apply. The AKL-MEL flights would replace existing widebody services, so you are effectively just adding a single sector MEL-JNB return.

But Virgin Australia tried to do it with an enormous 77W with no SA partner. Air NZ would be doing it in partnership with BOTH SA and VA, but in a 789 which is a much more efficient vehicle.

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