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cosyr
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United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Wed Apr 06, 2016 8:36 pm

I still feel like there has to be or have been some kind of monetary compensation for their slots at JFK that DL got unchallenged.

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireSto...-add-slots-newark-liberty-38201251

I know there's another thread discussing Port Authority easing slot restrictions(https://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/6663223/), which I'm sure is the driver behind this move from UA. Still the JFK slots had some value, and even if it benefited UA to consolidate PS, they also helped DL strengthen competition in NYC. Now at least we know that DL was going to be giving up 24 slots. Has DL been using those while this has been going on, or will they resume flights with them?

Does anyone have any details on the finances of the transaction(s)?

[Edited 2016-04-06 13:38:02]
 
a380787
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Wed Apr 06, 2016 8:48 pm

Someone mentioned it's $14M for each transaction, thus "supposedly" netting out to $0 cash exchange. Obviously that didn't quite pan out.

So UA got paid cash while DL is now with slots that have their monetary value slashed thanks to FAA lifting the slot cap.
 
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jfklganyc
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Wed Apr 06, 2016 8:56 pm

Or UA gave up $14 million of JFK slots for nothing in return.

Sounds like Delta is the winner in this deal and UA is down to huge at one airport, token at second airport and non existent at third airport.

We will know in 20 years if Deltas strategy or Uniteds strategy is better. Maybe 10
 
UA444
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Wed Apr 06, 2016 9:03 pm

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 2):

Being critical of UAL's boneheaded move isn't popular on this site, where EWR and MIA are seen as god's gift to green earth.

When practically every single of your major competitors manages to serve all 3 airports and you don't, there's a problem.
 
LAXtoATL
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Wed Apr 06, 2016 9:08 pm

Both transactions were independent of each other.
So, UA was compensated for the JFK slots at time of transfer and DL would have been compensated for the EWR slots at time of transfer. With the EWR slot transaction not going through, ended up being a simple transaction of UA selling the JFK slots to DL. It was structured as two separate transactions from the beginning instead of slots for slots deal because of the regulatory approval process, so this outcome was foreseen as possible.

Everybody is happy. United gets access to more slots at EWR without having to pay for them and collected money on JFK slots that were meaningless to them. Delta increased its slot portfolio at JFK and will retain EWR slots they can easily put to commercial use and will probably have bargaining value again in the future.
 
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Wed Apr 06, 2016 9:15 pm

Quoting UA444 (Reply 3):

When practically every single of your major competitors manages to serve all 3 airports and you don't, there's a problem.

That means nothing. Both DL and AA serve all 3 Bay Area airports SFO SJC OAK, while UA is in the same scenario :

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 2):
UA is down to huge at one airport, token at second airport and non existent at third airport.

.... huge at SFO, token at SJC, non-existent at OAK. And who is winning the Bay Area ? UA+WN.
 
threeifbyair
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Wed Apr 06, 2016 9:23 pm

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 4):
United gets access to more slots at EWR without having to pay for them

UA wasn't fully utilizing its slot portfolio at EWR. Some commenters have said that is because UA wanted flexibility in case of delays, others say UA is simply curtailing demand to raise fares.

This will allow competitors who have been locked out of EWR expansion to add flights. AS could add PDX and a 3rd daily SEA, perhaps SJC (which has terrible NYC service - just 1x daily B6 redeye to JFK) as well.

I don't think AA and DL care too much about the removal of slots. DL was fine getting rid of some of its slots and AA is flying EWR-PHL which seems like a slot squatting exercise.
 
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Wed Apr 06, 2016 10:40 pm

Quoting UA444 (Reply 3):
Being critical of UAL's boneheaded move isn't popular on this site, where EWR and MIA are seen as god's gift to green earth.

When practically every single of your major competitors manages to serve all 3 airports and you don't, there's a problem.

JFK made no sense anymore in UA's network, it didn't make much sense for UA pre merger either which is why they were down to only two routes from JFK. By consolidating at EWR they offer a much better service:

This Summer they are operating four Widebodies a day on P.S. flights from EWR, some thing they were never going to be able to do at JFK.

This Summer's schedule:

EWR-LAX 12 752, 1 789, 1 772

EWR-SFO 15 752, 2 772
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Wed Apr 06, 2016 10:52 pm

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 4):
Delta increased its slot portfolio at JFK and will retain EWR slots they can easily put to commercial use and will probably have bargaining value again in the future.

I'm not so sure DL wants to grow at EWR if anything the DOT removing slots will allow them to shrink the number of flights they operate without having to worry about losing slots.
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cosyr
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Wed Apr 06, 2016 11:12 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 7):
By consolidating at EWR they offer a much better service:

Not just on P.S., but everywhere. Plenty of people have argued both ways about the value of JFK or LGA vs EWR to the NYC market, and even claimed that EWR isn't really for the NYC market, but no airline will ever have a full service hub out of JFK or LGA.

From here in SYR, DL has to have multiple flights a day to both LGA and JFK in order to serve different types of connecting pax. Does UA wish that EWR was physically where LGA is geographically? Sure. But no one else has what they have in EWR, and I think it is worth giving up weaker service to maintain and defend their unique position. I bet both airlines are plenty profitable out of their respective airports.
 
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Wed Apr 06, 2016 11:51 pm

It's hard to get slots when there aren't slots anymore... (as of whenever the FAA made the last day)
 
UA444
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Wed Apr 06, 2016 11:57 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 7):

Widebodies are great and all but there is no excuse for not having a presence at JFK, especially when AA and DL who have hubs at JFK and DL also at LGA still manage to have a presence at EWR. It would be one thing had DL dumped EWR during this swap but that didn't happen. Why can they compete at all 3 but UA find its such a chore to do so? That's simply pathetic and there isn't an excuse for it.

It would've been far better to expand ps to EWR while keeping JFK. I think that would've done well and shaken things up in the trans con market.

JFK is far too large of a market to ignore. They're just too lazy to compete and used the lease expiration as an excuse to further dump mainline employees since they couldn't directly due to protections.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 5):
. huge at SFO, token at SJC, non-existent at OAK. And who is winning the Bay Area ? UA+WN
SJC and OAK are not JFK. And I actually disagree with UA dumping OAK a few years ago too.

[Edited 2016-04-06 16:58:01]

[Edited 2016-04-06 16:59:24]

[Edited 2016-04-06 17:00:04]
 
a380787
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 12:17 am

Quoting UA444 (Reply 11):

JFK days were 8x SFO 6x LAX. Now at EWR is 17x SFO 14x LAX this summer. With frequencies more than doubled, I'd say that's a major improvement.
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 12:57 am

Sweet payback  

UA made off like a bandit, selling its JFK-LON authority to DL right before EU open skies would've allowed the latter to have it for free.

Air Karma.  
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 1:01 am

UA routinely had at least one 767 or 777 flight per day on JFK-SFO, even during the "verge of liquidation" days of 2009. usually it was on the 8 or 9 am departure...timed for a peak mid-morning departure and for the peak Asian bank around 1 pm out of SFO. LAX was always 757. Of course, if you go back to when UA had a focus city at JFK in the mid to late 90s, there were wide body jets to the west coast all the time.

I'm curious how the deal was structured as airlines aren't allowed to sell slots these days.


Finally, does DL end up just slashing service since they obviously weren't all that interested in running a big operation from EWR or do they hand on to their "potential slots" given that they probably end up coming back at some point? My money is on seeing DL squat on their 36 (or whatever the actual number is) slots and we see a lot of B-717 and CRJ-900 service to ATL, DTW, and MSP. I'd love to see DL make a true move and add EWR-SEA ... I'd love to see twice daily LAX-EWR service but that is probably a bridge too far.
 
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 1:20 am

UA444, had EWR been a pmUA hub and the ps service been offered into JFK by sCO instead, would you be saying this?

Quoting UA444 (Reply 11):
It would've been far better to expand ps to EWR while keeping JFK. I think that would've done well and shaken things up in the trans con market.

Then your just diluting your own yield and killing yourself from within.

This allows for better aircraft utilization, hence the widebody presence, lay flat seats all the way from LAX/SFO to somewhere that can't be served profitably nonstop from those cities, and eliminating cost by closing a station at one of the worlds busiest airports where land is a premium in favor of your fortress hub which has a larger catchment area and where your buddy-buddy with politicians. It's why you don't see UA flying into OAK, HOU, or MDW.

Quoting UA444 (Reply 3):
EWR and MIA are seen as god's gift to green earth.

Half right, I believe you mean BOS (or SEA) and MIA.
When wasn't America great?


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dc10lover
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 1:22 am

Even though i miss the UA presence at JFK i agree. UA is actually gaining.

"JFK days were 8x SFO 6x LAX. Now at EWR is 17x SFO 14x LAX this summer. With frequencies more than doubled, I'd say that's a major improvement"

Quoting a380787 (Reply 12):
Why endure the nightmare and congestion of LAX when BUR, LGB, ONT & SNA is so much easier to fly in and out of. Same with OAK & SJC when it comes to SFO.
 
United1
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 1:30 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 13):
Sweet payback  

UA made off like a bandit, selling its JFK-LON authority to DL right before EU open skies would've allowed the latter to have it for free.

Yup and again UA sold slots to DL and didn't have to pay anything to get what it wanted in return....additional flights at EWR. I don't see how this was a loss for UA....
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 1:49 am

Quoting United1 (Reply 17):
Yup and again UA sold slots to DL and didn't have to pay anything to get what it wanted in return....additional flights at EWR. I don't see how this was a loss for UA....

1. Tell me how UA wanted more flights at EWR? They have 80-90 unused slots per day per the DOJ

2. UA wanted more slots to use 80% of and leave 20% dormant

3. Per FAA discretion is very important under the new EWR rules. And, per 1, I don't think they will get the discretion over other airlines for additional flights anytime soon

4. The new rules could be a real thorn in UAs side. Imagine those 80 unused UA slots filled with 320s flying to California, Florida and the Caribbean. Imagine the tails of Yellow, Blue, and cute fury animals flying those new flights.
 
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 2:00 am

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 18):
Per FAA discretion is very important under the new EWR rules. And, per 1, I don't think they will get the discretion over other airlines for additional flights anytime soon

The FAA/DOT operates as a coordinator not as a regulator at level 2 airports...if UA wants to add flights they will find a way to accommodate them just as they will any other airline. It's not a free for all as airlines have to submit their schedules but it's also not regulated.

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 18):
4. The new rules could be a real thorn in UAs side. Imagine those 80 unused UA slots filled with 320s flying to California, Florida and the Caribbean. Imagine the tails of Yellow, Blue, and cute fury animals flying those new flights

Out of what gates...?

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 18):
Tell me how UA wanted more flights at EWR? They have 80-90 unused slots per day per the DOJ

No hub airline uses all their slots at any NYC airport...not even DL.
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
UA444
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 2:50 am

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 15):

UA444, had EWR been a pmUA hub and the ps service been offered into JFK by sCO instead, would you be saying this

I flew CO out of EWR many a time back in the day and have experienced all 3 to form my opinion. If you were flying UA out of JFK, it was almost like you're own private terminal at T7. Very little crowds, easy and quick gate access. It simply is no comparison to the two and EWR is far more of a hassle during IRROPS.

Look I get why some think this is a smart move and obviously UA now having a huge hub at EWR they didn't have before is a positive. But not serving JFK is simply not the same as not serving MDW, HOU, OAK. NYC is far more important to compete in and the market large enough that service is justified to all 3. And whether some like to hear it or not, to many in the area EWR is simply not NYC and a large part of the catchment area isn't going to schlep over to NJ to catch a United flight.

Business is a competition with competitors. Cutting and running away back to Newark, while the same competition at JFK happens to also still compete against you at Newark is short-sighted and idiotic. If UA had a larger presence at LGA it might make more sense, but they trail AA and DL there too.
 
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 3:17 am

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 18):

Why do you always attack UA(and DL/AA) for following the law?

Do you not do the same in your everyday life. 80/20 is the rule. Time to move on and get over it.

Quoting United1 (Reply 19):

Out of what gates...?

the magic ones. LCCs have magic powers in NYC, didn't you know?

Quoting STT757 (Reply 7):

JFK made no sense anymore in UA's network

Yes it did(does)

DL, B6, AA, VX(AS) aren't flying the premium product flights to JFK just because.

I will say, at this point, it is pretty clear UA was losing its valuable contracts and HVCs to AA/DL/B6/VX and thus pulled the plug.

Quoting N717TW (Reply 14):

Finally, does DL end up just slashing service since they obviously weren't all that interested in running a big operation from EWR or do they hand on to their "potential slots" given that they probably end up coming back at some point?

Its my understanding most of the slots DL was sending to UA weren't being used by DL. Some were leased some were 80/20 rule.

No destinations were going to be cut.
 
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 3:20 am

Quoting UA444 (Reply 20):
to many in the area EWR is simply not NYC and a large part of the catchment area isn't going to schlep over to NJ to catch a United flight.

Actually, in most cases, EWR is only about 1-2 miles further from any given point in Manhattan. And UA clearly has the larger network worldwide than AA and DL do at JFK. Also the EWR catchment area covers almost the entire state of New Jersey (PHL takes the southern third) as well as about half of NYC.

I've transited through EWR before on FRA-EWR-IAH, and the connection was quick and painless, and that's even including taking the train from B to C.

EWR really is a great airport, it's just a shame that it is totally constricted on all sides for further growth.
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United1
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 4:16 am

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 21):
Do you not do the same in your everyday life. 80/20 is the rule. Time to move on and get over it.

Indeed....also IIRC UA is utilizing slots at a 90/10 ratio so clearly they are in compliance.

Quoting UA444 (Reply 20):
it was almost like you're own private terminal at T7. Very little crowds, easy and quick gate access. It simply is no comparison to the two and EWR is far more of a hassle during IRROPS.

T7 was a jem but in case of IRROPS EWR has many advantages over JFK for UA not the least of which is dozens of other flights they can put you on.
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
codc10
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 5:37 am

Nostalgia for UA and the JFK of old and anti-CO bias are big factors. United is on the record saying p.s. service at EWR is exceeding expectations and the company is growing gauge to meet demand. Time to move on.

W/r/t UAL service out of JFK, no airline is going to be all things to all people. The JFK transcons are super-competitive now with no sign of that changing. Why should United run a dead-end route with an expensive product when it can generate similar (or equivalent) returns at EWR where it already operates a hub? The net effect of consolidating service to EWR, redeploying mainline assets elsewhere and providing better premium connectivity from LAX/SFO to UA's EWR network may have an accretive effect overall. These decisions are not made in a vacuum.

And for those complaining about why United isn't in all NY-area airports, where is AA at DAL/MDW? Again, one airline cannot be all things to all people.
 
LAXtoATL
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 5:37 am

Quoting United1 (Reply 8):
not so sure DL wants to grow at EWR if anything the DOT removing slots will allow them to shrink the number of flights they operate without having to worry about losing slots.

I'm pretty sure they have no interest in growing EWR, their focus is and should be JFK.

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 18):
1. Tell me how UA wanted more flights at EWR? They have 80-90 unused slots per day per the DOJ

I can say whether you UA wanted more flights at EWR or not. But they definitely wanted more slots since they were willing to pay DL millions to get them. My guess is they wanted them to add flights, maybe they just wanted to make sure another competitor didn't get them, or maybe it was the specific timing of the slots (I don't know if EWR slots are time specific or not).

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 21):
DL, B6, AA, VX(AS) aren't flying the premium product flights to JFK just because.

I will say, at this point, it is pretty clear UA was losing its valuable contracts and HVCs to AA/DL/B6/VX and thus pulled the plug.

I don't think you can make this leap. First of all, they didn't pull the plug on the service they simply moved it. Second, without knowing how well UA was or wasn't doing in the JFK transcons market they clearly had a competitive presence because as soon as UA pulled out DL and AA increased capacity to capture that business. As for UA's business contracts, you are unequivocally wrong. UA moved the service in part to retain / grow their corporate contracts and satisfy their HVCs. The biggest complaint they faced from that group was that on TATL international business or first class service from the West Coast (LAX and SFO) that required a connection in EWR they had to travel 5hrs in a standard domestic first class product (inferior to any international configuration and the product offering of their competitors) before transferring to the international premium product they paid for (yet they were paying the same price as they would pay on say DL where they get premium service for the entire trip). Moving the service absolutely made since as they were able to appease their most important customers and cut costs at the same time (elimate the overhead at JFK just for a handful of flights).

The only question is how many O&D passengers did they lose as a result because the passenger absolutely preferred JFK. I don't know the answer (I know competitors were quick sell against the move and take advantage of the opportunity to increase their share in the LAX/SFO-NYC market). At the time UA said they were confident they could retain all passengers and EWR was just as convenient as JFK or moreso (but what else would you expect them to say?).
 
d8s
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 5:56 am

Quoting UA444 (Reply 11):
Quoting UA444 (Reply 3):
Quoting UA444 (Reply 20):

I just become more shocked every comment I read. I cannot, for the life of me, understand why you aren't an airline CEO!!
 
boilerla
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 6:04 am

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 18):
1. Tell me how UA wanted more flights at EWR? They have 80-90 unused slots per day per the DOJ

People look at EWR slots as if they are all created equal. UA is clearly using a lot more slots early mornings, timed more closely with the the TATL departures, than they are in mid afternoon when it's too late for anything except west coast departures.

With EWR going to Level 2 designation, UA can try to re-time some of their flights so they are more closely aligned international departure/arrival banks without worrying about slots.
 
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 7:58 am

United choosing not to serve JFK is not comparable to DL and AA serving EWR.

Look at what routes DL and AA fly out of EWR. They only serve their Eastern and Central time zone hubs, and neither run Trans Cons out of there. UA serve ORD/IAH/DEN from of the river ... but from LGA.

Once they decided to consolidate their Trans Con network at EWR there was precisely zero need for JFK in their network. Some posters scream and bang their fists, but it doesn't serve any unique role in their network. If they ever close LGA then, sure, get upset, but JFK really wasn't necessary to them.

With such a small presence at LGA and JFK combined, UA is only competitive in the NYC originating market among those who *choose* EWR, either because it is more convenient for them or because they want to take advantage of UA's much larger network. Those passengers probably aren't too upset by the change. At the other end of the route, passengers who are locked into UA, especially in SFO, will most likely just shrug their shoulders and just get on with it unless their final destination is actually on Long Island. There wasn't much way that UA could loose here.
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klwright69
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 10:55 am

And premerger CO was always attempting to dip their toes in the water at JFK with flights to both CLE on Express and to IAH. Someone on here once said that CO never did that well out of JFK, not because of loads but because of fares.

Premerger UA had dropped down to only 2 markets from JFK.

I am not sure why such a big deal is made out of this. No one is coming on here saying they were personally inconvenienced by UA not serving JFK.

But having different premium products from EWR and JFK was absurd and had to change.
 
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cosyr
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 11:45 am

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 29):
Premerger UA had dropped down to only 2 markets from JFK.

Down from a mini hub in the 90's. They tried it and it didn't work, but they have a gem at EWR that competitors would love to have.
 
threeifbyair
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 1:06 pm

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 22):
Actually, in most cases, EWR is only about 1-2 miles further from any given point in Manhattan

A very challenging and expensive 1-2 miles though. A cab to Lower Manhattan is ~$90 all in from EWR, more if you are going uptown. JFK is $53-$57 + tolls and tip to/from anywhere Manhattan.

Quoting United1 (Reply 23):
also IIRC UA is utilizing slots at a 90/10 ratio so clearly they are in compliance

Compliance, sure, but we are talking competition policy. UA had to stay compliant in order to keep competitors (who might use the slots 100%) from asking the FAA to reclaim UA's slots. AS uses its 2 pairs of EWR slots close to 100% of the time.

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 25):
My guess is they wanted them to add flights, maybe they just wanted to make sure another competitor didn't get them, or maybe it was the specific timing of the slots (I don't know if EWR slots are time specific or not).

UA could always add flights before, though it is limited on terminal space at peak times too. Running flights from A is highly sub-optimal.
 
a380787
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 1:42 pm

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 31):

A very challenging and expensive 1-2 miles though. A cab to Lower Manhattan is ~$90 all in from EWR, more if you are going uptown. JFK is $53-$57 + tolls and tip to/from anywhere Manhattan.

That's why there's a plethora of choices - rail (LIRR vs NJT), subways (E/J/Z vs. PATH), SuperShuttle, shared ride services like Uber/Lyft, misc black car services that easily could be cheaper than cabs ....

LIRR solution is approx $9.5-14, depending on day of time and hour of day. NJTransit is $12.5 flat, any day any time. LIRR is 15+20 = 35 mins, NJT is 10+30 = 40 mins. I'd say in the larger scheme of things, those are roughly comparable.
 
LAXtoATL
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 2:02 pm

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 31):
UA could always add flights before, though it is limited on terminal space at peak times too. Running flights from A is highly sub-optimal.

I was just hypothesizing on why UA wanted the slots originally.
As I said since they agreed to purchase them for several million dollars it is only logical to assume they had a reason for doing so and not just because they like collecting slots. I don't know much about EWR or a UA's operations there but common sense says the most logical reason to acquire slots is to add flights, but I conceded there other reasons. I still believe their desire to purchase slots could only be driven by one of or combination of three scenarios: add more flights, keep away from competitors, improve timing of their slot portfolio (I have no idea which apply but I would bet the answer is in there somewhere).
 
a380787
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 2:11 pm

Quoting UA444 (Reply 20):
NYC is far more important to compete in and the market large enough that service is justified to all 3. And whether some like to hear it or not, to many in the area EWR is simply not NYC and a large part of the catchment area isn't going to schlep over to NJ to catch a United flight.

And that's totally fine. Business travelers paying for J class will care about frequency and pricing first. They'll cab/Uber it either way, so that $10-20 difference in cab fare won't make much of a difference in their decision :

NYC-LAX, Friday 7/15

UA x14
AA x13
DL x10
B6 x10
VX x9 (6 JFK 3 EWR)

NYC-SFO, Friday 7/15

UA x17
DL x8
VX x8 (5 JFK 3 EWR)
AA x7
B6 x6

UA is the frequency leader to both markets (winter LAX UA is slightly behind AA). If we only count frequencies with flat beds, UA accounts for 30% departures to LAX, and 45% to SFO.

While we lack recent BTS fare data, anecdotal evidence about J-class from published fares, inventory levels a week out (before most upgrades kick in), amount of upgrade clearance, and award inventory all point to no shortage of paid J traffic after the p.s. move. There's little concrete evidence to suggest the experiment is a massive failure, as many as predicted.
 
simairlinenet
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 2:14 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 13):
UA made off like a bandit, selling its JFK-LON authority to DL right before EU open skies would've allowed the latter to have it for free.

This deal had a contingency clause wherein United would pay Delta back part of the amount if open skies happened within a certain time.
 
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jetblastdubai
Posts: 1865
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 2:23 pm

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 33):
I still believe their desire to purchase slots could only be driven by one of or combination of three scenarios:

#4 scenario: United wanted to increase flights at EWR without increasing the total number of flights at the airport because they knew the airport was already operating very close to max sustainable capacity.
Every zoo is a petting zoo......if you're a man!
 
LAXtoATL
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 2:24 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 34):
While we lack recent BTS fare data, anecdotal evidence about J-class from published fares, inventory levels a week out (before most upgrades kick in), amount of upgrade clearance, and award inventory all point to no shortage of paid J traffic after the p.s. move. There's little concrete evidence to suggest the experiment is a massive failure, as many as predicted.

As I mentioned in my previous post, the decision by UA to move its premium transcons service had nothing to do with O&D and was driven by the complaints of F and J class international passengers and UA's desire to retain that business in a highly competitive market. There was no way this move could be a failure, they knew they could fill the premium cabins into EWR and reduce their cost basis in the process. The only question is how much premium O&D traffic would they lose in the process - whatever the answer has been to that question it is certainly more valuable to retain the international premium passenger.

This was always going to be a win for UA. The question was would be a little win, a big win, or somewhere in between and how much opportunity would it provide to their competitors in this process.
 
a380787
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 2:37 pm

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 37):

As I mentioned in my previous post, the decision by UA to move its premium transcons service had nothing to do with O&D and was driven by the complaints of F and J class international passengers and UA's desire to retain that business in a highly competitive market. There was no way this move could be a failure, they knew they could fill the premium cabins into EWR and reduce their cost basis in the process. The only question is how much premium O&D traffic would they lose in the process - whatever the answer has been to that question it is certainly more valuable to retain the international premium passenger.

This was always going to be a win for UA. The question was would be a little win, a big win, or somewhere in between and how much opportunity would it provide to their competitors in this process.

Agreed. Even before discussing O&D vs. international connectors, the major frequency spike (more than doubled to both destinations) should more than compensate for any fantasized deficiencies of the airport choice.

Regarding the compact advantage of JFK T7, the maximum incremental walk to gate of EWR-C over JFK-7 is like 5-10 mins ? And you wonder why some in the travel blogosphere is so morbidly plus-sized ....
 
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exunited
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 2:42 pm

Quoting cosyr (Reply 30):
but they have a gem at EWR

Sorry but using gem and EWR in the same sentence is pretty funny.
 
LAXtoATL
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Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2009 3:55 am

RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 2:47 pm

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 36):

#4 scenario: United wanted to increase flights at EWR without increasing the total number of flights at the airport because they knew the airport was already operating very close to max sustainable capacity.

Really? Isn't that the same thing as me saying UA wanted to increase flights and keep slots away from competitors?
 
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American 767
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 2:53 pm

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 25):
I'm pretty sure they have no interest in growing EWR, their focus is and should be JFK.

And LGA for domestic flights, and maybe to a certain extent flights to Canada. I think that Delta is considering JFK/LGA combined a hub for them. I really think that Delta should concentrate on dominating LGA in the NYC area, as American should concentrate on dominating DCA in the DC area. Didn't Delta and US Airways exchange slots with each other in LGA and DCA a while back?

I don't know how much longer United will keep LGA. Maybe they will for a long time to come, who knows. They will keep LGA for flights to ORD and IAD, and maybe DEN, but that's it. I am not saying United will abandon LGA but if they ever decide to do so and rather consolidate all of its NYC operations at their strong EWR hub, I wouldn't be surprised.
Back in the days when United flew JFK-NRT and JFK-LHR, in addition to JFK-LAX/SFO, nobody thought they would ever pull out of JFK.

Ben Soriano
Ben Soriano
 
777ord
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 2:54 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 12):
JFK days were 8x SFO 6x LAX. Now at EWR is 17x SFO 14x LAX this summer. With frequencies more than doubled, I'd say that's a major improvement.

How is just moving JFK to EWR LAX/SFO doubling their ops? All they did was move the flights to EWR. Sure, there is an upgaguge on the route, too. But, time will tell if them running 3 cabin 772 will pay off.
 
United1
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 2:55 pm

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 31):
UA had to stay compliant in order to keep competitors (who might use the slots 100%) from asking the FAA to reclaim UA's slots

Name an airline that hubs in NYC that uses all of their slots 100% of the time please....or London, Tokyo ect.
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
a380787
Posts: 4573
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 3:07 pm

Quoting 777ord (Reply 42):

How is just moving JFK to EWR LAX/SFO doubling their ops? All they did was move the flights to EWR. Sure, there is an upgaguge on the route, too. But, time will tell if them running 3 cabin 772 will pay off.

The frequencies with flat bed service - where the high yielding passengers value - has more than doubled. Used to be 8x SFO 6x LAX, went up to 17x SFO 14x LAX this summer.

Total frequencies have gone down, but most of those prior were on the 38" recliner variety that's hardly competitive.
 
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jetblastdubai
Posts: 1865
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 3:26 pm

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 40):
Isn't that the same thing as me saying UA wanted to increase flights and keep slots away from competitors?

It would be if Delta had not voluntarily agreed to sell UA the slots. Here we have a competitor (DL) that wanted to reduce flights at EWR and still, somehow, this is all UA's fault.

No one seems to be blaming DL for offering more slots to UA. Maybe DL wanted to keep other LCCs from entering the NY market as well by offering the swap with UA. $49 fares out of EWR would also put huge downward pressure on fares out of JFK and LGA as well.
Every zoo is a petting zoo......if you're a man!
 
klwright69
Posts: 2688
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RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 3:32 pm

Quoting American 767 (Reply 41):
I don't know how much longer United will keep LGA. Maybe they will for a long time to come, who knows. They will keep LGA for flights to ORD and IAD, and maybe DEN, but that's it. I am not saying United will abandon LGA but if they ever decide to do so and rather consolidate all of its NYC operations at their strong EWR hub, I wouldn't be surprised.
Back in the days when United flew JFK-NRT and JFK-LHR, in addition to JFK-LAX/SFO, nobody thought they would ever pull out of JFK.

Ben Soriano

I don't really think so. I know these scenarios are fun in a.net world, but there is a difference. LGA has a lot of high yield customers. Premerger CO gave up on JFK in fits and starts, because it didn't cut it. UA has a huge number of flights from LGA to ORD and IAH, it's not token. There are also the CLE, DEN, and IAD flights. I think you mean IAH and NOT IAD. UA had a token presence at JFK compared to the all the competitors. It's not hard to see the difference. It's not realistic to move them all to EWR. Combining ORD out of EWR would be what? 30 flights a day? Just because no one thought UA would ever leave JFK in the 90's, doesn't mean much for the UA of today. If we had all known then that UA was going to merge with CO, then yes, closing shop at JFK would not have been a surprise at all. When UA finally pulled the plug on JFK, was it a big, big, surprise? Probably not. UA has like 15 flights a day from LGA to ORD. That is not token. JFK was token in the UA system. Yes, folks were upset here UA pulled the plug on JFK, for reasons well documented, but again with EWR it's not a shock. Just because UA is behind DL at LGA does not mean they are token at LGA.
 
a380787
Posts: 4573
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 3:54 pm

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 46):

I don't really think so. I know these scenarios are fun in a.net world, but there is a difference. LGA has a lot of high yield customers. Premerger CO gave up on JFK in fits and starts, because it didn't cut it. UA has a huge number of flights from LGA to ORD and IAH, it's not token. There are also the CLE, DEN, and IAD flights. I think you mean IAH and NOT IAD. UA had a token presence at JFK compared to the all the competitors. It's not hard to see the difference. It's not realistic to move them all to EWR. Combining ORD out of EWR would be what? 30 flights a day? Just because no one thought UA would ever leave JFK in the 90's, doesn't mean much for the UA of today. If we had all known then that UA was going to merge with CO, then yes, closing shop at JFK would not have been a surprise at all. When UA finally pulled the plug on JFK, was it a big, big, surprise? Probably not. UA has like 15 flights a day from LGA to ORD. That is not token. JFK was token in the UA system. Yes, folks were upset here UA pulled the plug on JFK, for reasons well documented, but again with EWR it's not a shock. Just because UA is behind DL at LGA does not mean they are token at LGA.

A rough back-envelope check of fares commanded (ancient full year 2014 data) shows this ranking from ORD :

UA EWR > DL LGA > AA EWR+LGA (roughly equal) > UA LGA > NK LGA

And that's where the competition is most intense. To IAH+DEN, I believe UA is both the volume and fare leader to LGA, for obvious reasons. In terms of intra-perimeter short-haul hauls, I believe the order is LGA > EWR > JFK. It's easy to justify dropping JFK, but a lot harder to drop LGA. It would be thoroughly fascinating and ironic if one day FAA decides to also lift slot caps at LGA.
 
CV880
Posts: 1001
Joined: Sun Mar 25, 2007 7:56 am

RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 4:30 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 34):
UA is the frequency leader to both markets (winter LAX UA is slightly behind AA). If we only count frequencies with flat beds, UA accounts for 30% departures to LAX, and 45% to SFO.

DL's frequencies include 5 widebodies to/fr LAX and 2 to/fr SFO, Including a 333 roundtrip LAX-JFK--all flights with flatbeds in F (July 15). The 767's have 26 F, the 333 has 33 F, both with 1-2-1 seating. Far more capacity in Y class than the 757's & 321's of UA/AA.
 
Rdh3e
Posts: 3529
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:09 pm

RE: United Giving Up On EWR Slots From DL

Thu Apr 07, 2016 4:42 pm

Quoting CV880 (Reply 48):
DL's frequencies include 5 widebodies to/fr LAX and 2 to/fr SFO, Including a 333 roundtrip LAX-JFK--all flights with flatbeds in F (July 15). The 767's have 26 F, the 333 has 33 F, both with 1-2-1 seating. Far more capacity in Y class than the 757's & 321's of UA/AA.
UA is also flying widebodies. Those frequencies don't even come close to evening out the seat totals.

July scheduled seats (each way):

NYC-SFO

UA (77.4K Seats)
DL -47% (40.4K Seats)
AA -74% (19.9K Seats)


NYC-LAX

UA (71.9K Seats)
DL -20% (57.7K Seats)
AA -47% (38.2K Seats)

[Edited 2016-04-07 09:43:39]

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