Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
UsAir737
Posts: 222
Joined: Mon Mar 23, 2015 1:26 pm

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Mon Apr 11, 2016 11:08 pm

Quoting flyabr (Reply 49):
Then there's that lagging 787 order for 18 units. Could this be the order where those funds are used to purchase more 737s?

Nope. I think those orders will stand. 788 deliveries correspond with a batch of 763 retirements. I believe DL will order more 788 to replace 763's in addition to more 339's where upgaging is needed.
Long live US/ HP the airline that took over the world!
 
User avatar
seabosdca
Posts: 6607
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:33 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Mon Apr 11, 2016 11:17 pm

Quoting flyabr (Reply 49):
Could this be the order where those funds are used to purchase more 737s?

If that had been the intent, you would think Delta would have already done it with one of their two 737-900ER orders.

I agree with UsAir737 that they are likely to be delivered as 787s. But they might not be 787-8s. Or they might.
 
UsAir737
Posts: 222
Joined: Mon Mar 23, 2015 1:26 pm

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 2:33 am

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 51):
t they are likely to be delivered as 787s. But they might not be 787-8s. Or they might.

I'm thinking 8's and a follow up order for 10's. The 78 definitely has a place in DL's TATL fleet
Long live US/ HP the airline that took over the world!
 
VictorKilo
Posts: 260
Joined: Wed Jul 05, 2006 7:39 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 3:01 am

Quoting UsAir737 (Reply 50):
Nope. I think those orders will stand. 788 deliveries correspond with a batch of 763 retirements.

What will probably happen is that 788s would replace 332 son longer TPAC routes like DTW-NGO/PEK and SEA-HKG, bridging via a TATL route or SEA-PEK. Those 332s would then replace 763s on TATL routes that are a better fit for the 332 over the 333/339. Also, the 788 could open up some new route possibilities for Delta.

I bring this up because this is a good example of what DL has the flexibility to do with this narrowbody order. They could order anything from a CS100 to an A321 in size. They can order E195-E2s for shorter flights, or they could order CS100s for transcon range at a smaller capacity than their 73G and 319 fleets, opening up some new routes and sending some of the 319s to backstop retired M88s.

I'm going to go out on a limb and put my money towards a four-way split order: C-Series/737NG/E195-E2/A321Neo.
 
LawnDart
Posts: 867
Joined: Fri May 20, 2005 11:33 pm

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 5:07 am

Delta Fleet CY2026:

CS300 100
A321 45
A321NEO 100
A330-200 11
A330-300 35
A330-900 25
B717-200 110
B737-700 10
B737-800 73
B737-8MAX 140
B737-900 140
B787-9 70
A350-900 35
MD90-30 45

Pure speculation of course, but provides a 14.5% increase in airframes over 10 years, 13% widebody and 15% narrowbody.
 
Amiga500
Posts: 2645
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:22 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 7:31 am

IMO Delta won't buy CSeries.

It would be a big break from historical trend would it not?
 
bmacleod
Posts: 2990
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2001 3:10 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 12:53 pm

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 55):
IMO Delta won't buy CSeries.

It would be a big break from historical trend would it not?

DL has ordered from Bombardier in the the past, can't see how this would break from historical trends.   
"What good are wings without the courage to fly?" - Atticus
 
Amiga500
Posts: 2645
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:22 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 1:01 pm

Quoting bmacleod (Reply 56):
DL has ordered from Bombardier in the the past, can't see how this would break from historical trends.

How many of their orders have been for machines yet to EIS?
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8771
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 1:09 pm

Quoting okcflyer (Reply 37):
I see no advantage in Delta ordering current generation airplanes. They can easily fly the MD's until NEO's or LEAPs are delivered, which will have much better longer economics. Remember United's order was for rapid fleet expansion and they couldn't wait. Delta already has acceptable fleet and can wait a couple years to get the right engines / plane long term.

We don't know the difference in pricing - real pricing, not list pricing - between current gen and next gen aircraft. Nor do we know the fuel price assumption(s), finance hurdle rate, nor time horizon all built into the models for ceo vs. next gen. If current gen acquisition cost is cheap enough, and fuel cost assumption low enough/long enough, DL won't pay a big premium for latest/greatest. We have seen that play out CEO/NEO, 333IGW vs. 787/A350, refurbing and 767s vs. buying 787s, among other examples across carriers.
 
User avatar
Adipasquale
Posts: 831
Joined: Mon Apr 20, 2015 4:39 pm

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 1:29 pm

Quoting LawnDart (Reply 54):
Delta Fleet CY2026:

CS300 100
A321 45
A321NEO 100
A330-200 11
A330-300 35
A330-900 25
B717-200 110
B737-700 10
B737-800 73
B737-8MAX 140
B737-900 140
B787-9 70
A350-900 35
MD90-30 45

I don't think the 777s will be gone in that time.
DH8A DH8B CR1 CR2 CR7 CR9 E45 E70 E75 E90 D93 M88 318 319 320 321 333 343 712 732 733 734 73G 738 739 744 752 753 762 763 772 77L 77W
 
User avatar
tlecam
Posts: 1500
Joined: Tue Jul 23, 2013 1:38 pm

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 2:21 pm

Quoting LawnDart (Reply 54):

Delta Fleet CY2026:

CS300 100
A321 45
A321NEO 100
A330-200 11
A330-300 35
A330-900 25
B717-200 110
B737-700 10
B737-800 73
B737-8MAX 140
B737-900 140
B787-9 70
A350-900 35
MD90-30 45

I know you're speculating -

What is driving the tinking that Delta would order the 8MAX over the 320NEO? Reading through this thread, many people are looking at a CS / 737-800 or 738MAX order. WHy the 738 / 8MAX over the NEO?
BOS-LGA-JFK | A:319/20/21, 332/3, 346 || B:717, 735, 737, 738, 739, 752, 753, 762, 763, 764, 787, 772, 744 || MD80, MD90
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 11056
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 2:57 pm

Quoting tlecam (Reply 60):
What is driving the tinking that Delta would order the 8MAX over the 320NEO? Reading through this thread, many people are looking at a CS / 737-800 or 738MAX order. WHy the 738 / 8MAX over the NEO?

Because you can squeeze more seats in the 738 over the A320 (assuming equivalent comfort levels) and DL likes packing them in   

I do see them springing for -9MAX's too though, they seem to like the 739ER and the -9's performance is more than adequate for many of DL's routes (contrary to A.net hysteria, not every A321/739 flight is a 3000 mi route taking off from a 6000 ft runway located half a mile high in 120F heat). Along with of course A321neos and maybe A320neos.

[Edited 2016-04-12 07:58:11]
 
UsAir737
Posts: 222
Joined: Mon Mar 23, 2015 1:26 pm

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 3:00 pm

Quoting tlecam (Reply 60):
What is driving the tinking that Delta would order the 8MAX over the 320NEO?

Just speculation. Perhaps better performance of 738? And slightly higher capacity? All speculation. I think both max and neo have a 50/50 shot. May the best deal and best schedule win! I'd like to see both at DL.
Long live US/ HP the airline that took over the world!
 
SPREE34
Posts: 1745
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2004 6:09 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 5:46 pm

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 57):
How many of their orders have been for machines yet to EIS?

DC-8, DC-10, L1011, CV880.
I don't understand everything I don't know about this.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 11056
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 6:13 pm

Quoting SPREE34 (Reply 63):
DC-8, DC-10, L1011, CV880.

+ A330neo, A350 (by a month or so), and of course the 787 (granted via NW).
 
Beatyair
Posts: 856
Joined: Mon Feb 10, 2014 9:09 pm

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 6:15 pm

It was suggested that they may make an announcement on Thursday, when they have there quarterly conference call.
United made there 737 announcement during there earning call.
 
YYZYYT
Posts: 1090
Joined: Tue Apr 05, 2005 12:41 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 6:25 pm

Quoting Beatyair (Reply 65):

It was suggested that they may make an announcement on Thursday, when they have there quarterly conference call.
United made there 737 announcement during there earning call.

I have also seen a suggestion that they will wait until April 24 - there is a Board meeting scheduled that day...

http://www.fliegerfaust.com/latest-r...ing-delta-airlines-1724686116.html

A little suspense makes it more fun, don't you think?
 
User avatar
antoniemey
Posts: 1419
Joined: Mon Dec 26, 2005 5:38 pm

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 6:39 pm

Quoting YYZYYT (Reply 66):
I have also seen a suggestion that they will wait until April 24 - there is a Board meeting scheduled that day...

There's a board meeting on a Sunday?
Make something Idiot-proof, and the Universe will make a more inept idiot.
 
YYZYYT
Posts: 1090
Joined: Tue Apr 05, 2005 12:41 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 6:47 pm

Quoting antoniemey (Reply 67):
There's a board meeting on a Sunday?

Now that you point it out... yes, the 24th IS a Sunday.

I was passing on fliegerfaust's comment - he is usually reasonably accurate.
 
User avatar
mayor
Posts: 6218
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2008 3:58 pm

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 7:28 pm

Quoting bmacleod (Reply 56):
DL has ordered from Bombardier in the the past, can't see how this would break from historical trends.

Don't know if it makes any difference, but those orders were for regional ops, not mainline a/c.
"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
 
flyabr
Posts: 869
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2003 11:42 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 8:07 pm

Quoting UsAir737 (Reply 52):
I'm thinking 8's and a follow up order for 10's. The 78 definitely has a place in DL's TATL fleet


The only 787 I see making it into the DL fleet within 10 years is the 78J. They could use that aircraft for TATL hub to hub flying where its economics would be excellent. The 789 lost to the A359 in the last WB RFP so really, does that aircraft have much of a chance at DL? The A339 was ordered to replace some of the oldest 763ERs. I can see a follow on order for A338s/A339s. DL may very well pick up some used or even new A332s and A333s. DL seems to have little interest in the 788 based on recent RFP outcomes. I would love for DL to order some 787s, but it just doesn't look likely at this point in time given the foothold the Airbus WBs have procured.
 
flyabr
Posts: 869
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2003 11:42 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 8:15 pm

Quoting tlecam (Reply 60):
What is driving the tinking that Delta would order the 8MAX over the 320NEO? Reading through this thread, many people are looking at a CS / 737-800 or 738MAX order. WHy the 738 / 8MAX over the NEO?

I'm thinking 738 because Boeing is hungry to fill NG production slots, probably more so than Airbus is to fill CEO slots. And we all know DL isn't afraid to carry on with current generation aircraft if the price is delicious!
 
bucky707
Posts: 955
Joined: Sat Aug 19, 2000 2:01 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 8:38 pm

Quoting flyabr (Reply 70):
in the 788 based on recent RFP outcomes. I would love for DL to order some 787s, but it just doesn't look likely at this point in time given the foothold the Airbus WBs have

I actually thInk the Airbus WB foothold is why we will see a 787 order. If Delta makes it clear they will only buy Airbus in the future, is that really the way to get the lowest price? Better to continue to spread the orders around and keep both companies in the game. Other wise no incentive for Boeing to try, which means no incentive for Airbus to offer a competitive price.
 
User avatar
1337Delta764
Posts: 5920
Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2005 4:02 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 8:50 pm

Quoting bucky707 (Reply 72):
I actually thInk the Airbus WB foothold is why we will see a 787 order. If Delta makes it clear they will only buy Airbus in the future, is that really the way to get the lowest price? Better to continue to spread the orders around and keep both companies in the game. Other wise no incentive for Boeing to try, which means no incentive for Airbus to offer a competitive price.

Agreed. If DL puts out RFPs and only one vendor always wins, that surely raises a red flag for collusion. Otherwise why put out an RFP at all?

https://www.justice.gov/atr/price-fi...ging-and-market-allocation-schemes

[Edited 2016-04-12 14:07:20]
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 11056
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 9:12 pm

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 73):
Agreed. If DL puts out RFPs and only one vendor always wins, that surely raises a red flag for collusion. Otherwise why put out an RFP at all?

That is not collusion.

Delta and Airbus/Boeing are not in the same market. Delta sells air travel to the general public. Airbus/Boeing sell planes to airlines. Delta is just one of Airbus/Boeing's customers.

[Edited 2016-04-12 14:14:12]
 
User avatar
1337Delta764
Posts: 5920
Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2005 4:02 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 9:16 pm

Quoting Polot (Reply 74):
That is not collusion.

Delta and Airbus/Boeing are not in the same market. Delta sells air travel to the general public. Airbus/Boeing sell planes to airlines. Delta is just one of Airbus/Boeing's customers.

I guess you failed to read the DOJ document that I posted:

Quote:


The same company always wins a particular procurement. This may be more suspicious if one or more companies continually submit unsuccessful bids.

•The same suppliers submit bids and each company seems to take a turn being the successful bidder.

•Some bids are much higher than published price lists, previous bids by the same firms, or engineering cost estimates.

•Fewer than the normal number of competitors submit bids.

•A company appears to be bidding substantially higher on some bids than on other bids, with no apparent cost differences to account for the disparity.

•Bid prices drop whenever a new or infrequent bidder submits a bid.

•A successful bidder subcontracts work to competitors that submitted unsuccessful bids on the same project.

•A company withdraws its successful bid and subsequently is subcontracted work by the new winning contractor.


This is from the DOJ Antitrust Division, which has jurisdiction over both public and private entities.

[Edited 2016-04-12 14:21:26]
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 11056
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 9:20 pm

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 75):

Now scroll pass that segment and read how that is just indicators that may arouse suspicion of collusion, but are not actually proofs of collusion.
 
User avatar
1337Delta764
Posts: 5920
Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2005 4:02 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 9:27 pm

Quoting polot (Reply 76):
Now scroll pass that segment and read how that is just indicators that may arouse suspicion of collusion, but are not actually proofs of collusion.

So why is an RFP even necessary then? Couldn't DL just order straight from Airbus without an RFP? Putting out RFPs just to award to a single vendor is clear bid rigging to me.

[Edited 2016-04-12 14:28:14]
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 11056
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 9:34 pm

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 77):

To keep them honest and play them off each other to ensure you are getting the best deal. Doing it in private is basically approaching collusion. There is no law that says they must choose cheapest proposal.
 
User avatar
Boeing778X
Posts: 3268
Joined: Sun Nov 17, 2013 7:55 pm

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 9:39 pm

So how about this:

CS300
40x Republic units plus 60-80 more.

737-800
Convert the 18x 787-8 order into 40-60x cheap 738s.
United Airlines: $#!ttin' On Everyone Since 1931
 
B757Forever
Posts: 899
Joined: Tue May 04, 2010 3:23 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 9:45 pm

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 79):
So how about this:

CS300
40x Republic units plus 60-80 more.

737-800
Convert the 18x 787-8 order into 40-60x cheap 738s.

That follows my thinking as well. 120 C series plus some 738s. Who knows, DL may end up with some cheap 738 aircraft from GOL...
The Rolls Royce Dart. Noise = Shaft Horsepower.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9411
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 10:10 pm

Quoting B757Forever (Reply 80):
Who knows, DL may end up with some cheap 738 aircraft from GOL...

That can not happen. GOL has ordered 737MAX and is therefor by definition a save customer, only A320 neo customers are dodgy.   
 
dbo861
Posts: 1060
Joined: Tue May 18, 2004 2:20 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 10:11 pm

Sorry if this has been mentioned, I've been watching this thread pretty closely. Do we know any sort of timeframe when this order will be announced?
 
flyabr
Posts: 869
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2003 11:42 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 10:20 pm

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 79):
CS300
40x Republic units plus 60-80 more.

737-800
Convert the 18x 787-8 order into 40-60x cheap 738s.

I like the way you think...although I'd probably add or substitute some CS100s!   
 
flyabr
Posts: 869
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2003 11:42 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 10:21 pm

Quoting dbo861 (Reply 82):
Do we know any sort of timeframe when this order will be announced?

Within the next 45 days.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 2564
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 10:37 pm

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 73):
Quoting flyabr (Reply 84):
Within the next 45 days.

I have no knowledge, but earnings announcements tend to be commonplace for announcing orders. Delta's Q1 is tomorrow.
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 5673
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Tue Apr 12, 2016 11:46 pm

Quoting tlecam (Reply 27):
I have a question for folks who know much more about airplane manufacturing history than me - are there other examples of new entrants coming into the market that I can go read about since Airbus became a major player to Boeing?

None since Airbus entered the market, but the entry of Boeing itself is significant. During the prop era Boeing was only a bit player, with Douglas being the dominant manufacturer by far. Boeing was almost exclusively a military contractor, and with the B-17, B-29, B-50, B-47 and B-52 under their belt they were by far the world's most experienced manufacturer of large planes and really the only one with experience with large jets. They had tried to break into the civilian market 3 times, first with the 247 (which was eclipsed by the DC-2, largely because of Boeing's corporate ties to United which precluded AA from getting any until United's order was filled, prompting AA's president to go to Donald Douglas and asking him to build a better plane, which he did.) They then tried turning the B-17 into an airliner (the 307), which was the world's first pressurized airliner, but the war took the wind out of its sails. After the war they tried the same thing with the B-29, coming up with the 377, which in its military version as the KC-97 was successful, but as the Stratoliner was not. Bill Allen saw that jets were the future of civil transport long before anyone else (except for deHavilland) and wanted to use their experience with the B-47 and B-52 to advantage, and so took a huge gamble in building a prototype airliner completely at company expense, the 377-80. Douglas had been lured (again by AA) to build the DC-7, and so they were caught flat footed and short of time and resources when they found out about it. Boeing also had more experience with large jets AND had their own high-speed wind tunnel (a bit of foresight again by Bill Allen who sought something to do with the extremely large wartime profits that would give them a competitive advantage after the war), which Douglas did not. So when the 707 and the DC-8 emerged the 707 had clearly better high-altitude high-speed performance. But the real decisive point came when Boeing lost orders to United and (I think) Eastern because the 707 was at that point 5 abreast, while the DC-8 was 6 abreast. Boeing had already started production of the KC-135 (which was ONLY supposed to be 25 planes-the rest were to be Lockheed. Boeing only got those 25 because Curtis LeMay had a hissy fit    and wanted jet tankers NOW, and Boeing was the only one who could build them ) and planned to use the same tooling for the 707. But Bill Allen was not going to be beaten again by Douglas, and they made the extremely gutsy and expensive decision to redesign the 707 for 6 abreast, and from that point on the 707 ran away with the field. Later, the 727 filled an important niche, and Douglas answered with the DC-9, which was smaller and would have been more popular but Donald Douglas completely underestimated demand, and basically drove his company to near bankruptcy trying to fill demand for it. That is what pushed him into the unfriendly arms of McDonnell, and ultimately to the demise of the first great airliner manufacturer.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
wjcandee
Posts: 9716
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Thu Apr 14, 2016 6:15 am

Quoting SPREE34 (Reply 63):
Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 57):
How many of their orders have been for machines yet to EIS?

DC-8, DC-10, L1011, CV880.

MD-90?
 
n7371f
Posts: 1861
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:54 pm

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Thu Apr 14, 2016 7:38 am

Here's what I know...

DAL upper managers are aware the Bombardier order is going to happen. Recall that NWA was very close to an order before the merger. Many of those people back then are now in ATL.

Embraer 190 is still on, despite rumors that Boeing is going to pull favorable leasing of ex-Air Canada 190's to DAL.

DAL plans to base the 190 in SEA. The 20 a/c may still be increased despite the impending Bombardier order.

[Edited 2016-04-14 00:51:43]
 
JoeCanuck
Posts: 4704
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2005 3:30 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Thu Apr 14, 2016 8:53 am

Leeham is speculating about a CS500 and whether or not a Delta order might spur the development.

It's behind a subscription wall so i don't know what they conclude.
What the...?
 
User avatar
hilram
Posts: 754
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 11:12 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Thu Apr 14, 2016 10:42 am

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 89):

Interesting to learn that CS300 is the base model, and that the CS100 is the shrink. That makes the CS500 more viable for sure! Very few NB routes (at least in Europe) need the range that the CS300 has to offer (not to mention the 738).
Flown on: A319, 320, 321, 332, 333, 343 | B732, 734, 735, 736, 73G, 738, 743, 744, 772, 77W | CRJ9 | BAe-146 | DHC-6, 7, 8 | F50 | E195 | MD DC-9 41, MD-82, MD-87
 
deltal1011man
Posts: 5377
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:17 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Thu Apr 14, 2016 1:13 pm

Quoting tlecam (Reply 60):

What is driving the tinking that Delta would order the 8MAX over the 320NEO? Reading through this thread, many people are looking at a CS / 737-800 or 738MAX order. WHy the 738 / 8MAX over the NEO?

agreed. DL will go with the best deal

having said that Airbus or Boeing alone simply won't be able to meet DL's needs in the future. DL will still use both OEMs.

Quoting Polot (Reply 61):

Because you can squeeze more seats in the 738 over the A320 (assuming equivalent comfort levels) and DL likes packing them in

I think its like two(?) seats with space flex for the 320. I don't see this being much of an issue.

Quoting flyabr (Reply 70):
The 789 lost to the A359 in the last WB RFP so really, does that aircraft have much of a chance at DL?

any of the three airplanes, 787, 330, 350, have equal chances every time DL orders a wide body.
The airline operates basically every aircraft type known to man. They aren't going to all of a sudden change this.

If Boeing offers a better deal during the next order that is likely what DL will go with. Airbus offered better terms and better delivery slots than Boeing. Had Boeing won the order it would have meant 777s to replace the 747s and 787s in 2020. (the same slots they have for 787-8s now would have been converted to -9s)

Also FWIW DL is going to be doing the Trent 1000 engine in-house. (along with the 7000 and XWB)

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 73):

Agreed. If DL puts out RFPs and only one vendor always wins, that surely raises a red flag for collusion. Otherwise why put out an RFP at all?

What is it with you?
No that isn't collusion. Not even close to it. Just stop with this, you don't know what you are talking about. You are just biased and upset DL is ordering from anyone but Boeing.

We don't even hear a single word about Southwest from you, but God help us if someone orders an airbus. Move on already.

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 75):

I guess you failed to read the DOJ document that I posted:

No I think you are the one that didn't read it. Even the one bullet point you are looking at doesn't apply to DL, who owns aircraft from all four major OEMs.

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 77):

So why is an RFP even necessary then? Couldn't DL just order straight from Airbus without an RFP? Putting out RFPs just to award to a single vendor is clear bid rigging to me.

So then you want the big 100 + 30 737-900ER order changed correct? Or the order that brought in your beloved 767-400ERs? Maybe the DOJ should force DL to dump the 764 for more 330s, you know to make it fair.

Its called negotiations. Google it. Its not rigging, its not because they love this OEM or that OEM, its not because GE was a creditor in BK or any other reason you typically give. DL is running a business. Its just that simple.

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 79):

C100s are going to happen more than likely also.

Also not sure DL will roll out of the 787 order just yet. Rumor mill has it they are going to make a wide body order soon(ish) and it would make more sense to use that order as leverage then(and if they go back to more buses then transfer the order to more 737s.)
but thats JMO

Quoting n7371f (Reply 88):

DAL upper managers are aware the Bombardier order is going to happen. Recall that NWA was very close to an order before the merger. Many of those people back then are now in ATL.

Curious, can DL do anything now with you not bringing NW up? Its been how long since the merger?

Quoting n7371f (Reply 88):

Embraer 190 is still on, despite rumors that Boeing is going to pull favorable leasing of ex-Air Canada 190's to DAL.

Airlines don't just buy or lease airplanes and hope the OEM gives them the price. A contract was set for the E90 lease prices. That isn't something Boeing (or any other lessor) can just change. It might effect future pricing, but even that is unlikely. Boeing isn't going to keep 25 E90 on its books because they are butt hurt about DL ordering Airbus, BBD, EMB, whatever.
Having said that, I don't remember anything about DL leasing the 19 airplanes. I'm pretty sure they are buying them. (the above still applies)
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20931
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Thu Apr 14, 2016 1:17 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 86):
Douglas answered with the DC-9, which was smaller and would have been more popular but Donald Douglas completely underestimated demand, and basically drove his company to near bankruptcy trying to fill demand for it.

That was the era where Douglas' mistress was the gatekeeper to his office. She disliked anyone having more influence over the boss than she, so many good Douglas executives and engineers left the company.

Lightsaber
I cannot wait to get vaccinated to live again! Warning: I simulated that it takes 50%+ vaccinated to protect the vaccinated and 75%+ vaccinated to protect the vac-hesitant.
 
Amiga500
Posts: 2645
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:22 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Thu Apr 14, 2016 1:39 pm

Quoting hilram (Reply 90):
Interesting to learn that CS300 is the base model, and that the CS100 is the shrink. That makes the CS500 more viable for sure! Very few NB routes (at least in Europe) need the range that the CS300 has to offer (not to mention the 738).

Urgh.

Yeah, no, sorta, kinda.

The eventual common wing will be built to CS300 spec. But the road to certification is a tortuous one. The approach taken by BBD (and approved by Transport Canada) is a total balls IMO and is a direct result of doing CS100 first and not CS300.


This would make the job of certifying a CS500 essentially a new aircraft. Design, not so much, the allowables can iterate off what has been done previously.

However, with the lessons learned off both 100 and 300 programs fresh in the collective mind (as well as maturity of methods etc), leaving aside funding, there will never be a better time to do it. It would result in a much better airframe if started now than started in even just 5 years time.

[Edited 2016-04-14 06:40:03]
 
flyabr
Posts: 869
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2003 11:42 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Thu Apr 14, 2016 1:58 pm

Quoting deltal1011man (Reply 91):
any of the three airplanes, 787, 330, 350, have equal chances every time DL orders a wide body.
The airline operates basically every aircraft type known to man. They aren't going to all of a sudden change this.

If Boeing offers a better deal during the next order that is likely what DL will go with. Airbus offered better terms and better delivery slots than Boeing. Had Boeing won the order it would have meant 777s to replace the 747s and 787s in 2020. (the same slots they have for 787-8s now would have been converted to -9s)

Perhaps, but you gotta admit that having recently ordered A339s and A359s it's more likely you'll see a follow on order for more of those units vs any 787. Heck, at this point, I suspect an A330CEO order is more likely than 787.

If Boeing had won the campaign, yes, there'd have been some new 77L interim lift until the 789s were delivered. But, we all know DL didn't go with that option.  
 
JoeCanuck
Posts: 4704
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2005 3:30 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Thu Apr 14, 2016 2:09 pm

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 93):
The eventual common wing will be built to CS300 spec. But the road to certification is a tortuous one. The approach taken by BBD (and approved by Transport Canada) is a total balls IMO and is a direct result of doing CS100 first and not CS300.

That doesn't make a lot of sense. It took 5 FTV's to get the CS100 certified. It will only require 2 FTV's to get the CS300 certified, and take about half the time, because of the systems and component commonality.

There is no reason to believe that a CS500 would be so radically different that it would take any more time to develop and certify than the CS300. In fact, with the experience already built into the development, certification and production processes, it could very well take less time.

I have no idea if a CS500 will ever be offered or built, but the knowledge of having already build 2 derivatives to the type would definitely be a huge benefit.
What the...?
 
deltal1011man
Posts: 5377
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:17 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Thu Apr 14, 2016 2:10 pm

Quoting flyabr (Reply 94):

Perhaps, but you gotta admit that having recently ordered A339s and A359s it's more likely you'll see a follow on order for more of those units vs any 787. Heck, at this point, I suspect an A330CEO order is more likely than 787.

I disagree. I personally think that DL is going to keep rolling with the best deal at the time.
So I personally think Boeing will have a little more fire under its ass to get a better deal next time.

I don't see DL being a "top off" airline with this leadership(i.e. 5 frames here, 3 frames here) so I think the next order will be another 25 or so aircraft. With that I think it will be a full and open RFP process. I also think the 339/359/789 is to large to completely replace the DL 767 fleet and we will see some 787-8/338 sized aircraft at some point.
 
Amiga500
Posts: 2645
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:22 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Thu Apr 14, 2016 2:13 pm

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 95):
That doesn't make a lot of sense. It took 5 FTV's to get the CS100 certified. It will only require 2 FTV's to get the CS300 certified, and take about half the time, because of the systems and component commonality.

True, the systems (assuming they carry over, which should be the case), will be more or less certified as a step from baseline.

But the stress, fatigue and damage tolerance aspects won't.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 95):

There is no reason to believe that a CS500 would be so radically different that it would take any more time to develop and certify than the CS300. In fact, with the experience already built into the development, certification and production processes, it could very well take less time.

It will take much longer - as the buy-off procedure used for CS300 simply won't be viable for CS500.
 
JoeCanuck
Posts: 4704
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2005 3:30 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Thu Apr 14, 2016 2:40 pm

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 97):
But the stress, fatigue and damage tolerance aspects won't.

Not all will...but most will. The wing, for example has already been tested to 150% maximum load. Unless the wing is substantially altered, then they probably won't have to do another wing bend test. Any increase in strength can probably be calculated, like it was for the extra strengthening needed for the A380 wing.

As well, the materials will all be the same so at least fatigue and damage tolerances should be identical. Stress will be different based on specific structural and weight changes....which is why they will probably need 2 CS500 FTV's to achieve certification.

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 97):
It will take much longer - as the buy-off procedure used for CS300 simply won't be viable for CS500.

No other family of aircraft have had those issues. It would be very odd if the CS500 had to jump through hoops that the 739 or 321 didn't. There is no reason to expect that the CS500 wouldn't have the same percentage of commonality to the CS300, than the 300 does with the CS500.

Regardless...we're both just guessing and we'll find out together if the CS500 is ever offered.
What the...?
 
Amiga500
Posts: 2645
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:22 am

RE: Delta To Place Narrowbody Order Part 2

Thu Apr 14, 2016 2:45 pm

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 98):
Regardless...we're both just guessing

Unfortunately not. I'm in the middle of the mess.

I can't see any way Transport Canada certify a CS500 without repeating all of the analyses that go into certification reports from scratch (outside of clearing tests by FEM).


Which goes back to the original decision none of us can wrap our heads around; why do the 100 first?

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos