A380 News/discussion

abba · Fri Apr 22, 2016 5:00 pm

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 90):
I agree, if EK wouldn't be that strong I believe the same number of A380s would have been sold. Instead of EK's livery they would fly around in the colors of the main Asian carriers and the main European carriers. It's not that people decided to travel because EK has the A380.

No - but I believe that the 380 is the very cornerstone of the EK's business model.

Quoting HALtheAI (Reply 92):
So if the ME3 didn't exist, you believe that the EU3 + SQ + MH + TG + QF (KE and OZ aren't really impacted by the ME3) would've ordered more than the 162 A380s the ME3 have? In comparison, how many sold A380s would constitute a "larger success" for the program?

No doubt they would have got many more than they have - so rather than using 777s they would be using 380s. How many constitute a success? It is not possible to give an objective independent statement on that. However, it make sense to have a look in the original business case put forth when the development was decided. On this account it seems very much to be a success.

tortugamon · Fri Apr 22, 2016 5:47 pm

Quoting parapente (Reply 96):
So the RR 'Advance' is a lame band aid solution is it? Airbus knows this or would have launched it already.

Can we learn how to select the text and hit the 'quote selected text' button? I really miss your replies quite often because of your approach.

Anyway, its not that the Advance is a band aid solution to RR, I am sure it will be great, it's a band aid to the A380. Just putting those engines on the aircraft won't fix the A380's problem.

tortugamon

Prost · Fri Apr 22, 2016 5:54 pm

FWIW the quote and select text feature is sorely lacking when using a tablet on this site.

N14AZ · Fri Apr 22, 2016 6:04 pm

Quoting Prost (Reply 102):
FWIW the quote and select text feature is sorely lacking when using a tablet on this site.

That's exactly what I wanted to answer as well...

Stitch · Fri Apr 22, 2016 10:53 pm

Quoting PhoenixVIP (Reply 104):
Its funny how tortugamon takes the moral high ground on the A380 issue despite all the trash talk from previous by saying he/she likes flying it but it's sh!t aircraft. Paradox.

Many a.netters like the 767-400ER while lambasting it as a failed program, Ditto the A340-500.

[Edited 2016-04-22 15:54:51]

art · Fri Apr 22, 2016 11:23 pm

Can anyone hazard a guess as to how much fuel burn could be reduced (approximately) with the RR Advance, improved wingtips and what those developments would cost Airbus? Not talking about redesigning the wing or stretching the aircraft.

incitatus · Sat Apr 23, 2016 2:13 am

Quoting art (Reply 89):
OK, current orders take production at 1.7pm to less than 2022.

No chance of any further orders except for an NEO? Will SQ not replace any of their A380's that they retire? No minor additional orders from any existing users for whom the A380 works well? No new customers?

Would just a trickle of orders be enough to keep Airbus going? I do not think so.

Airlines have gone through a good period of growth and profitability. In the next several years we are likely to see growth dampen - it is just cyclical.

nz2 · Sat Apr 23, 2016 6:40 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 26):
And I'm not sure how the twins are testimony to point to point flying when most of them still operate as hub and spoke. Then again, Emirates does operate the A380 - profitably - on comparatively short hops across the Tasman.

Only because the cost of the aircraft is not taken into consideration as it would be sitting on the ground otherwise, so they only need to cover variable costs, quite different to a carrier offering a dedicated service. EK are what is known in shipping as a wayport operator, the cost of capital is a sunk cost hence different cost structure. All the same they offer a very good product and I have used them, shame about the timing though...

trex8 · Tue Apr 26, 2016 8:56 pm

Probably 2nd hand planes but there may be small chance of new ones
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/a380-could-work-for-iag-at-iberia-and-aer-lingus-w-424428/

22 APRIL, 2016 BY: MAX KINGSLEY-JONES LONDON
IAG is examining the feasibility of allocating a small fleet of Airbus A380s to its Spanish division Iberia and possibly an aircraft with its recently acquired Irish arm Aer Lingus.

N14AZ · Wed Apr 27, 2016 6:45 am

Turkish Air Revives A380 Plan With Malaysia Jets Back on Agenda:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-with-malaysia-jets-back-on-agenda

Prost · Wed Apr 27, 2016 6:54 am

Ooooh, a Kelly Green A380!

N14AZ · Wed Apr 27, 2016 6:56 am

Quoting Prost (Reply 110):
Ooooh, a Kelly Green A380!

??? Is this kind of an insider-joke?

Something is wrong today, I cannot edit my post. I would love to change that "Turkish Air", sorry for that. I hate it as well but I was lazy and just copy-pasted the title of the article (I know, it's forbidden...)

parapente · Wed Apr 27, 2016 7:19 am

Reply 102
Thank you!
Reply101
If the 380's problem is that it is just too darn big,then no it won,t fix the problem.
If after 15 years of service it requires improved economics then the addition of BW,s and Advance engine will do the trick.
It will primarily be a replacement market for the CEO 380 and some 747's.If they can make a further 300 over the next 15 years then that is what they will do.Hardly exciting or spectacular but hey so what.

scouseflyer · Wed Apr 27, 2016 7:23 am

A380 in EI colours

One quote from the article amused me:

"The A380 wouldn't work on every part of our network, so from that point of view we'd be less ambitious [in fleet size] than Emirates would be"

The whole world is less ambitious that EK when it comes to the A380!

N14AZ · Wed Apr 27, 2016 7:25 am

The article I linked in reply no. 109 contains another piece of information and somehow confirms what I always felt, that all this talking about a NEO jeopardizes every single CEO-sales-campaign:

Quote:
“We do have intentions for the A380 but the new generation is coming so we have to be sure which is cost effective,”

art · Wed Apr 27, 2016 7:30 am

Have IAG got Malaysian's phone number? Could be a lease deal of mutual benefit to be had there.

N14AZ · Wed Apr 27, 2016 7:33 am

Quoting art (Reply 115):
Have IAG got Malaysian's phone number? Could be a lease deal of mutual benefit to be had there.

Could even explain why THY suddenly is interested again in leasing the MH-A380's.

N14AZ · Wed Apr 27, 2016 8:59 am

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 111):
Quoting Prost (Reply 110):Ooooh, a Kelly Green A380!??? Is this kind of an insider-joke?

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 113):
A380 in EI colours

Ah, now I got it. I though Prost was referring to the TK-rumor (and thought who the f... is Kelly Green?!?) whereas he was referring to the EI-rumor. Sorry.

goosebayguy · Wed Apr 27, 2016 9:03 am

Passengers like flying the 380. THat alone makes it a success. Equally I also recall the 747 took a long time to make break even. 400 units I believe it was.

mjoelnir · Wed Apr 27, 2016 9:57 am

Quoting trex8 (Reply 108):
Probably 2nd hand planes but there may be small chance of new ones
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/a380-could-work-for-iag-at-iberia-and-aer-lingus-w-424428/

22 APRIL, 2016 BY: MAX KINGSLEY-JONES LONDON
IAG is examining the feasibility of allocating a small fleet of Airbus A380s to its Spanish division Iberia and possibly an aircraft with its recently acquired Irish arm Aer Lingus.

The main point is that IAG wants more A380 and is satisfied with them. Of course he would say that talking about used A380 is not a negotiation ploy regarding new A380 from Airbus, how could it be a ploy if he admits to it.

TheRedBaron · Wed Apr 27, 2016 12:34 pm

Iberia could use a A380 to MEX, heck maybe even MTY or rotate those 2 destinations...

Even if the A380 had half the fuel consumption, it would not sell because its a huge investment (fuel economy is just a fraction of the whole A380 equation), and airlines are afraid of spending a truckload of money on something they need to fill ALL THE TIME, to have a good business, they have preferred to play it safe and ordered twins.

I wondered what happened to the world where a lot of guys bet the farm on gut feelings.

TRB

Polot · Wed Apr 27, 2016 12:50 pm

Quoting goosebayguy (Reply 118):
Equally I also recall the 747 took a long time to make break even. 400 units I believe it was.

The 747 eclipsed 400 orders in 1978- 8 years after EIS and 12 after program launch. With the A380 we are 8.5 years after EIS and almost 15.5 years after program launch. In fact by the start of 1978 there was an almost equal number of 747s delivered (315) as current A380 orders (319).

anfromme · Wed Apr 27, 2016 12:51 pm

Very interesting; I always thought IB was a possibility, but EI is definitely a surprise to even be mentioned in this context by IAG.
Geerally, IAG seems quite happy with the aircraft, they've mentioned a few times now they'd like more. Airbus still seems to be tough on price negotiations, though, as Walsh keeps mentioning second hand market. A bit curious, considering BA still have seven or so options from their original order, and I would have thought that some kind of price guarantee was attached to those options.

racercoup · Wed Apr 27, 2016 12:57 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 26):
And I'm not sure how the twins are testimony to point to point flying when most of them still operate as hub and spoke. Then again, Emirates does operate the A380 - profitably - on comparatively short hops across the Tasman.

The 787 program has delivered 350+ frames to date. As a result approx. 100 new routes have been started or announced between markets that never had non-stop service before. What do you think that's going to look like in another ten years when there will be 2,000 Dreamliners and maybe 1,000 A350's flying?

Clipper101 · Wed Apr 27, 2016 3:36 pm

Quoting trex8 (Reply 108):

Looking into the way Mr. Walsh phrased IAG interest, it looks to me we are talking about 2 A380's for Iberia & 1 A380 for Aer Lingus

LAXintl · Wed Apr 27, 2016 3:52 pm

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 109):
Turkish Air Revives A380 Plan With Malaysia Jets Back on Agenda:

TK chief commercial officer made a statement to clarify the news reports.

He states that both Malaysia Airlines and leasing companies have again recently approached TK about frames.
However there is nothing immediately planed and TK still continues to evaluate its longer term widebody needs including the Boeing 747-8.
He also states TK is watching what Airbus does regarding a "more attractive" A380NEO concept.

Revelation · Thu Apr 28, 2016 1:08 am

Rate of 1.7/month is confirmed in 2017, also confirms no gaps in 2017 production:

Quote:

Separately, Airbus has decided to reduce its A380 production rate to 1.7 aircraft per month in 2017. The new rate will become effective in November. The plan is in line with earlier comments by Airbus Group CEO Tom Enders, who said the airframer is working to maintain breakeven on the A380 program, even if production is moving closer to 20 aircraft per year. Airbus delivered 27 A380s in 2015 and is targeting a similar number this year. The airframer said it is “covered” as far as 2017 production is concerned, and still has time to fill open production slots in 2018.

So if that's 12 months per yer it's 20.4 frames/year but some have said that Airbus is on an 11 month per year production calendar due to holiday shutdowns.

Ref: http://aviationweek.com/commercial-a...orarily-reduces-a320neo-production

Unflug · Thu Apr 28, 2016 3:15 am

Quoting racercoup (Reply 123):
The 787 program has delivered 350+ frames to date. As a result approx. 100 new routes have been started or announced between markets that never had non-stop service before.

But 80% serve hub to spoke, which should qualify as "most", shouldn't it?

Quoting racercoup (Reply 123):
What do you think that's going to look like in another ten years when there will be 2,000 Dreamliners and maybe 1,000 A350's flying?

It will look exactly the same: some of the growth will be provided by new routes, the rest of the growth will be provided by growing hub traffic...

tortugamon · Thu Apr 28, 2016 5:46 am

Quoting Prost (Reply 102):
FWIW the quote and select text feature is sorely lacking when using a tablet on this site.

Ok alright. Just painful. Guess it is painful for others as well.

Quoting parapente (Reply 112):
If after 15 years of service it requires improved economics then the addition of BW,s and Advance engine will do the trick.
It will primarily be a replacement market for the CEO 380 and some 747's.If they can make a further 300 over the next 15 years then that is what they will do.Hardly exciting or spectacular but hey so what.

Honestly what passenger 744s are going to be in service in 2025?

Replacing A380s with A380s isn't exactly a big market. The A380neo isn't expected to be better vs the 77X than the A380ceo is vs the 77W and that earlier competition didn't exactly do well. Couple that with the fact that the A350 looks awesome and I have a hard time seeing how the A380neo market is bigger than the A380ceo market which is to say, not great.

Quoting goosebayguy (Reply 118):
Passengers like flying the 380. THat alone makes it a success. Equally I also recall the 747 took a long time to make break even. 400 units I believe it was.

That alone does not making it a success.

The A380 is not breaking even - it isn't losing money on every unit it is selling. That is a big difference.

The A380 cost $25 Billion to create...the 747 cost about 10% of that and it was 50 years ago. We are a decade plus away from the A380 every hoping to hit 400 deliveries.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 126):
So if that's 12 months per yer it's 20.4 frames/year but some have said that Airbus is on an 11 month per year production calendar due to holiday shutdowns.

I read 11.5 months for the A380. We are still talking about 20 deliveries/year. Less than 10% of Airbus revenue zero percent of its profit and 50% of a-net dialogue.

tortugamon

N14AZ · Thu Apr 28, 2016 6:46 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 125):
TK chief commercial officer made a statement to clarify the news reports.

He states that both Malaysia Airlines and leasing companies have again recently approached TK about frames.
However there is nothing immediately planed and TK still continues to evaluate its longer term widebody needs including the Boeing 747-8.
He also states TK is watching what Airbus does regarding a "more attractive" A380NEO concept.

Thank you for providing this additional Information.

Quoting Unflug (Reply 127):
Quoting racercoup (Reply 123):What do you think that's going to look like in another ten years when there will be 2,000 Dreamliners and maybe 1,000 A350's flying?
It will look exactly the same: some of the growth will be provided by new routes, the rest of the growth will be provided by growing hub traffic...

Good point, in all transportation systems it's never black or white, it's always a combination of differnt solutions.

Quoting racercoup (Reply 123):
What do you think that's going to look like in another ten years when there will be 2,000 Dreamliners and maybe 1,000 A350's flying?

If what you see will come true, then I will propose to rename www.airliners.net into www.twins.net in 2025.

PhoenixVIP · Thu Apr 28, 2016 8:59 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 128):
The A380neo isn't expected to be better vs the 77X

It will be one generation newer than the 777X and stretched. Your figures seem to be coming from ... desperation on your anti A380 crusade with NAV380?

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 128):

The A380 is not breaking even - it isn't losing money on every unit it is selling. That is a big difference.

Well so is the 787 or shall we say both Airbus and Boeing have deferred costs so that argument is mute?

Quoting Revelation (Reply 126):

Should have happened long ago. Finally some sense being seen in reducing the production rate that should be fine to carry over to 2025.

TheSonntag · Thu Apr 28, 2016 9:04 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 128):
the 747 cost about 10% of that and it was 50 years ago

Yes, and Star Wars IV only cost 10 mio USD, while the newest star wars had cost of 423 mio USD. Certainly, with todays view it can be debated whether the Money used on the A380 was well spent, however, not all of the Money spent on the A380 was A380 specific:

The costs for enlarging XFW are of great use for the A320 line, as well, so that some of the A380 space will be used for new A320 lines in the future.

A lot of the R&D for the A380 Systems are also useful for further Projects like the A350.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 128):
Replacing A380s with A380s isn't exactly a big market.

Well, 200 A380s are certainly more expensive than 200 A330s.

mjoelnir · Thu Apr 28, 2016 10:17 am

Quoting PhoenixVIP (Reply 130):
Well so is the 787 or shall we say both Airbus and Boeing have deferred costs so that argument is mute?

Airbus has not deferred cost on the A380, the production cost were booked and reduced the profit.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 128):
The A380 is not breaking even - it isn't losing money on every unit it is selling. That is a big difference

The A380 is breaking even on single frame production in 2016 and will break even in 2017. So the frames are not loosing money on each sold, like the 787 and 747-8 are still doing.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 128):
The A380 cost $25 Billion to create...the 747 cost about 10% of that and it was 50 years ago. We are a decade plus away from the A380 every hoping to hit 400 deliveries.

You are very selective. The 747-8 did cost money to be developed.

Asiaflyer · Thu Apr 28, 2016 11:10 am

Qantas plans to keep thier A380 beyond 2020.
Apparently QF is very satisfied with A380s role in their fleet.

From Reuters:
SINGAPORE, April 28 (Reuters) - Australia's Qantas Airways Ltd QAN.AX plans to keep its Airbus Group AIR.PA long-haul A380 aircraft in service beyond 2020, when many will be around 10 years old, a senior executive said, even as it conducts talks with Airbus rival Boeing Co BA.N on the latter's next-generation B777X jets.

"The A380s do a great job on the markets that they operate," said Gareth Evans, head of the company's international business, speaking to Reuters in an interview on Thursday. Qantas currently operates a fleet of 12 of the jumbos.

"They are big units on big thick routes like Los Angeles and London, flying into slot-constrained airports," said Evans. "You want to have a fleet that is simple, but you need to have vehicles that do the right job for you."

N14AZ · Thu Apr 28, 2016 12:03 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 128):
Less than 10% of Airbus revenue zero percent of its profit and 50% of a-net dialogue.

... in which you take part with almost 100% (like me). So I fail to see your point. ???

tortugamon · Thu Apr 28, 2016 5:27 pm

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 131):
Certainly, with todays view it can be debated whether the Money used on the A380 was well spent

I really don't think that can be debated honestly.

tortugamon

col · Fri Apr 29, 2016 12:00 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 128):
Quoting goosebayguy (Reply 118):
Passengers like flying the 380. THat alone makes it a success. Equally I also recall the 747 took a long time to make break even. 400 units I believe it was.

That alone does not making it a success.

Does for me, as I am one of the crazy people who goes out of his way to use them.

TheReckoner · Fri Apr 29, 2016 1:47 am

I cannot get enough of the A380.

Flying East from London I will always try to book on A380s. Recently, it's either Qatar to Doha and a connection or BA.

I'm going to IAD soon and will fly BA A380. I plan to go to Chicago too within the next 3 months and I wish BA were flying the A380 there already.

It's not like there is anything wrong with a 777 or a 747 but the A380 is very comfortable.

glideslope · Tue Jul 12, 2016 10:59 pm

TheSonntag wrote:
It will fail. It will fail. It will be an utter failure.

The wing sucks.

It is not profitable.

We are all doomed.

.

The Wing was a poor design. Too large, too heavy. Should have launched with the A389.

Poor Designs are hard to profit from.

I am not doomed.

KarelXWB · Wed Jul 13, 2016 7:48 am

Please to not kick an old thread, we already have two threads on the same subject.

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