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winginit
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RE: DL CEO Speaks Of "ME3", Potentially Including TK

Fri Apr 15, 2016 2:21 pm

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 49):
Perhaps the answer is for Delta to use their Fifth Freedom routes to fly via DXB and Doha onward to India, Thailand, Singapore or Manila with their A350's, scheduled to come online in 2017. The ability to fight back against government subsidized carriers is very limited.

Bleeding money to try and fight back against carriers who don't care if they bleed money doesn't sound like a very good answer.
 
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enilria
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RE: DL CEO Speaks Of "ME3", Potentially Including TK

Fri Apr 15, 2016 3:07 pm

Quoting IPFreely (Reply 43):
Come to think of it, see if you can find anything they accomplished at all in their many combined years in the Senate.

True dat

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 47):
IINM, when DL launched that flight, the only ME3 nonstops to the USA were to JFK and IAH.
Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 47):
That *has* to have affected the flows into DL's flight

Sure, but the market has grown 50% in size since DL entered it. It works like any hub. It's very hard to compete when the hub carrier has so much connect traffic. The same logic makes it hard to succeed in Delta/AA/UA hubs.

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 49):
I do agree with Ed Bastian that Qatar's service to Doha is probably not sustainable out of ATL.

What about TK?

It really comes down to whether there is a market to the region at all from ATL, because existing service to the area is non-existent except via fairly poor connects (e.g. most of India is double connect now). I think ATL can support 1.5 to 2 daily flights to the Middle East/India. With DL out it is possible TK and QR can both sorta make it depending upon the cost of fuel and other factors like our relations with the Middle East, but I think the batting order is the TK/EK are both equally viable with stronger local market/extensive connect advantages and QR is the weakest of the three, but with only two carriers they may both be able to eek along till EK also comes in.
 
peanuts
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RE: DL CEO Speaks Of "ME3", Potentially Including TK

Fri Apr 15, 2016 5:06 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 51):
It really comes down to whether there is a market to the region at all from ATL

TK also markets Europe traffic though right? So they have an edge over the ME3 you'd think.
 
bahadir
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RE: DL CEO Speaks Of "ME3", Potentially Including TK

Fri Apr 15, 2016 9:02 pm

Quoting peanuts (Reply 52):

TK also markets Europe traffic though right? So they have an edge over the ME3 you'd think.

TK also has been running a cargo only service to ATL for couple of years now. A 777 will also augment that service when the pax service starts. Also, TK's connections in Russia, Balkans, Middle East makes is better connecting airline than Emirates or Qatar.
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LAX772LR
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RE: DL CEO Speaks Of "ME3", Potentially Including TK

Sat Apr 16, 2016 4:52 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 51):
Sure, but the market has grown 50% in size since DL entered it.

Sure, but the number of nonstops have grow several hundred percent since DL entered too....

We simply do not have enough information to say for sure whether the two balanced each other out. However, since the flight was canned, I'm going to go out on (not much of) a limb and say that the balance wasn't in its favor.

[Edited 2016-04-15 21:53:42]
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
jacobin777
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RE: DL CEO Speaks Of "ME3", Potentially Including TK

Sat Apr 16, 2016 5:16 am

Quoting winginit (Reply 50):
Bleeding money to try and fight back against carriers who don't care if they bleed money doesn't sound like a very good answer.

Have any proof to back that comment up?

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 49):
Perhaps the answer is for Delta to use their Fifth Freedom routes to fly via DXB and Doha onward to India, Thailand, Singapore or Manila with their A350's, scheduled to come online in 2017. The ability to fight back against government subsidized carriers is very limited.

Do you have any proof any of the ME3 (especially EK) is government subsidized? Please share with us.  
Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 45):

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-gulf-idUSKBN0NZ0BI20150514

Ties between the GCC and USA run long and deep along the military/security/intelligence sphere. There is a lot of non-defence/non-government business as well. Given that the countries hosting the ME3 carriers are critical to US geostrategic interests, it is difficult to see how the US government can afford to anatagonise them in any significant way.

Thanks for the link! It certainly reinforces my comments.
"Up the Irons!"
 
winginit
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RE: DL CEO Speaks Of "ME3", Potentially Including TK

Sat Apr 16, 2016 10:59 pm

Quoting jacobin777 (Reply 55):

Quoting winginit (Reply 50):
Bleeding money to try and fight back against carriers who don't care if they bleed money doesn't sound like a very good answer.

Have any proof to back that comment up?

Which part of the comment? Seems obvious the strategy wouldn't be a good one.

Quoting jacobin777 (Reply 55):
Do you have any proof any of the ME3 (especially EK) is government subsidized? Please share with us.  

Seriously? Yes, the EK portion of the US3 subsidy claims paper is pretty rubbish, but the QR and EY cases are solid: the carriers are subsidized. by the government. I think you're well aware of that, which is why you've put (especially EK) in your response there

Even in their response EY made clear that they'd received $14 billion + in government capitalization since they began flying, and in QR's formal response they simply nitpicked at some of the math used by the fair and open skies paper and spoke to market stimulation and consumer benefit as opposed to refuting that they received billions of dollars from their government.

[Edited 2016-04-16 16:06:18]
 
jacobin777
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RE: DL CEO Speaks Of "ME3", Potentially Including TK

Sun Apr 17, 2016 12:45 am

Quoting winginit (Reply 56):
Which part of the comment? Seems obvious the strategy wouldn't be a good one.

The part about "carriers bleeding money". I can't recall EK "bleeding money"   . I don't even recall EY or QR "bleeding money" either.     

Quoting winginit (Reply 56):
Seriously? Yes, the EK portion of the US3 subsidy claims paper is pretty rubbish, but the QR and EY cases are solid: the carriers are subsidized. by the government. I think you're well aware of that, which is why you've put (especially EK) in your response there

We are talking about the ME3 here, not the ME2 so yes, I would like to see proof about the aforementioned 3, not 2.

Quoting winginit (Reply 56):
Even in their response EY made clear that they'd received $14 billion + in government capitalization since they began flying, and in QR's formal response they simply nitpicked at some of the math used by the fair and open skies paper and spoke to market stimulation and consumer benefit as opposed to refuting that they received billions of dollars from their government.

A lot of carriers receive government capitalization. If the the govt of Qatar and Abu Dhabi are supporting QR and EY respectively in "dumping fares" then there is a problem. I really don't see that. In fact, most of the times, I don't see neither QR nor EY (or EK for that matter) ever being the least expensive fares to/from a number of competing destinations.
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upwardfacing
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RE: DL CEO Speaks Of "ME3", Potentially Including TK

Sun Apr 17, 2016 3:08 am

Quoting jacobin777 (Reply 55):
Thanks for the link! It certainly reinforces my comments.

Just to add, the US President will be heading to Saudi Arabia next week. Besides bilateral meetings in the Kingdom, he will participate in a summit with all the GCC countries.

In the context of US-GCC relations, the health and well-being of EK, EY, and QR are strategically far more important to the Governments of Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Qatar, respectively, than this specific dispute waged by the US Big Three carriers could ever be to the US Government. The larger defence and intelligence relationship is what is important to the US.

The US3 carriers are healthy and profitable, and the ME3 carriers pose little or no threat to their success, unless they expand aggressively on US-EU Fifth Freedom routes. As long as the ME3 do not engage in price dumping, it's difficult to see how they violate Open Skies agreements, and what the remedy proposed by USDOS would be.
 
Nabz82
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RE: DL CEO Speaks Of "ME3", Potentially Including TK

Sun Apr 17, 2016 3:52 am

The topic is this...


In the quarterly call, new CEO Ed Bastian said:

"...we have seen the ME3 add capacity transatlantically. Here in Atlanta we have seen Turkish add service and Qatar add flights to Doha."

'Transatlantically' is confusing, as nearly all flights ME3 wise go Arctically (polar route).. is the thread referring to MXP-JFK by EK alone?
 
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enilria
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RE: DL CEO Speaks Of "ME3", Potentially Including TK

Sun Apr 17, 2016 4:18 am

Quoting Nabz82 (Reply 59):
'Transatlantically' is confusing, as nearly all flights ME3 wise go Arctically (polar route).. is the thread referring to MXP-JFK by EK alone?

Something along those lines was asked by analysts and he said they count Middle East as transatlantic.
 
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B727skyguy
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RE: DL CEO Speaks Of "ME3", Potentially Including TK

Sun Apr 17, 2016 5:43 am

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
In the quarterly call, new CEO Ed Bastian said

The title of this thread is a bit misleading. According to the Delta press release from 03 February, Richard Anderson remains as Delta's CEO until 02 May. The press release says Ed Bastian will be promoted to CEO on that date.

Source:
http://news.delta.com/delta-announces-executive-succession
 
gokmengs
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RE: DL CEO Speaks Of "ME3", Potentially Including TK

Sun Apr 17, 2016 6:00 am

I almost did a million miles on DL most of it on JFK-IST but had to switch to TK after DL constantly reduced service and taking TK once. There is no comparison between the product, and I do like DL as a company a lot. I think TK ATL service will work fine.
Yaşa Mustafa Kemal Paşa Yaşa, Adın Yazılacak Mücevher Taşa
 
aviationaware
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RE: DL CEO Speaks Of "ME3", Potentially Including TK

Mon Apr 18, 2016 12:24 pm

QR is not a sustainable business and will collapse when the gas money is removed, so I think replacing them with TK in the M3 definition is a very valid and fair thing to do.
 
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mercure1
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RE: DL CEO Speaks Of "ME3", Potentially Including TK

Mon Apr 18, 2016 1:05 pm

Quoting aviationaware (Reply 63):
I think replacing them with TK in the M3 definition is a very valid and fair thing to do.

Except TK does not get a lira of government funding, is largely open public enterprise whose stock you can buy, has open financial books, and is very profitable.

This is all outside the fact that TK is a European airline, is a member of European airline associations etc.
mercure f-wtcc
 
aviationaware
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RE: DL CEO Speaks Of "ME3", Potentially Including TK

Tue Apr 19, 2016 7:45 am

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 64):
Except TK does not get a lira of government funding, is largely open public enterprise whose stock you can buy, has open financial books, and is very profitable.

Doesn't matter, Emirates is profitable too and TK and EK get the same kind of preferential government treatment - no direct subsidies, but great infrastructure (assuming new IST moves forward as planned).
 
leftyboarder
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RE: DL CEO Speaks Of "ME3", Potentially Including TK

Tue Apr 19, 2016 8:15 am

Quoting aviationaware (Reply 65):

IST is busting at the seams. Do you suggest that the Turkish government should turn a blind eye to the crazy situation at IST, or go build an airport somewhere in Bulgaria or Egypt? If there is demand, it is only natural that infrastructure develops with it. I don't condone any direct subsidies, or even tax breaks or ex-im guarantees, but building an airport is not a subsidy, direct or indirect. If it were, then the new T3 at FRA and new BER would be deemed as subsidies for LH and AB too.
 
aviationaware
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RE: DL CEO Speaks Of "ME3", Potentially Including TK

Tue Apr 19, 2016 8:46 am

Quoting leftyboarder (Reply 66):
Do you suggest that the Turkish government should turn a blind eye to the crazy situation at IST, or go build an airport somewhere in Bulgaria or Egypt?

Not at all, that was not an accusation of unfair conduct. Much rather a statement of fact - if you desperately want to read emotion into it, I'd prefer you saw it as disappointment over our western approach.
 
leftyboarder
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RE: DL CEO Speaks Of "ME3", Potentially Including TK

Tue Apr 19, 2016 10:53 am

Quoting aviationaware (Reply 67):

Well, I think there should be a balance between NIMBYism as in Europe and blatant disregard for nature as in some parts of the world. And to be honest, as much as I support the 3rd Airport, I wish they had picked a better location. Still, I would not consider an airport as a subsidy. Favorable working environment? Yes. Just like the presence of many good engineering schools in California does not count as a subsidy to tech companies.
 
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enilria
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RE: DL CEO Speaks Of "ME3", Potentially Including TK

Tue Apr 19, 2016 1:24 pm

Quoting B727skyguy (Reply 61):

The title of this thread is a bit misleading.

A perfect title would be difficult, but bottom line he listed Turkish under ME3 carriers in his answer. I don't think he's dumb, so he knows that TK is one of the three. So, the logical conclusion is that he sees little or no difference between TK and the ME3. While I am not surprised by that, it is news if you go along with reading that into it. (see below)...

Quoting aviationaware (Reply 63):
so I think replacing them with TK in the M3 definition is a very valid and fair thing to do.
Quoting mercure1 (Reply 64):
Except TK does not get a lira of government funding, is largely open public enterprise whose stock you can buy, has open financial books, and is very profitable.
Quoting aviationaware (Reply 65):
get the same kind of preferential government treatment

...It also shows the issue is not so much government subsidies as it is competition. TK/EK/EY/QR are successfully "winning" against the USA carriers in a narrow geographic niche that arguably the U.S. carriers shouldn't be able to win at anyway. They are winning because of a number of reasons, the most important of which is geography and another is the wealth and traffic created by oil. Yes, QR is the weakest of the bunch, but at least two of the four airlines are completely stand alone profitable in the view of most financial analysts. The issue with the ME3+1 isn't really subsidies, that is just a red herring. It's just a protectionist excuse.

Quoting leftyboarder (Reply 66):
Do you suggest that the Turkish government should turn a blind eye to the crazy situation at IST, or go build an airport somewhere in Bulgaria or Egypt?

People need to realize that the Cost Per Enplanement (CPE) from airport fees in the USA IS VERY LOW, and arguably subsidized at least compared to other countries. At large airports like even ATL the CPE is only about $12-14 even with the PFC head charge included. The PFC equivalent alone in Paris is about $15, and that's before the airlines even pay rent or landing fees. It's probably $45 all in. YYZ is like $30+. Even CUN airport passenger fees are $46.

In many countries the taxes on the sale of tickets go to the general fund of the country and the airport PFC equivalent must fully cover the cost of the entire airport including the runways. In the USA the ticket taxes for the most part go back to the airports for runways and taxiways. TSA is also largely funded from regular tax dollars. This is very unusual compared to most other countries where it is an airport cost.
 
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mercure1
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RE: DL CEO Speaks Of "ME3", Potentially Including TK

Tue Apr 19, 2016 1:30 pm

Quoting aviationaware (Reply 65):
Doesn't matter, Emirates is profitable too and TK and EK get the same kind of preferential government treatment - no direct subsidies, but great infrastructure (assuming new IST moves forward as planned).

You realize the Turkish state is not building the new Istanbul airport. A private conglomerate won the bid and is building it by investing EUR 22.1 Billion.

Even FRAport competed for the contract and was one of 3 finalist, but only bid EUR 20.0 Billion. Speaking of FRAport they operate other airport in Turkey, so its hardly a state monopoly.
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enilria
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RE: DL CEO Speaks Of "ME3", Potentially Including TK

Tue Apr 19, 2016 2:48 pm

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 70):
You realize the Turkish state is not building the new Istanbul airport. A private conglomerate won the bid and is building it by investing EUR 22.1 Billion.

You are missing the point. It's not about reality. This is political. Facts are unnecessary.
 
jacobin777
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RE: DL CEO Speaks Of "ME3", Potentially Including TK

Tue Apr 19, 2016 5:02 pm

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 58):
Just to add, the US President will be heading to Saudi Arabia next week. Besides bilateral meetings in the Kingdom, he will participate in a summit with all the GCC countries.

In the context of US-GCC relations, the health and well-being of EK, EY, and QR are strategically far more important to the Governments of Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Qatar, respectively, than this specific dispute waged by the US Big Three carriers could ever be to the US Government. The larger defence and intelligence relationship is what is important to the US.

The US3 carriers are healthy and profitable, and the ME3 carriers pose little or no threat to their success, unless they expand aggressively on US-EU Fifth Freedom routes. As long as the ME3 do not engage in price dumping, it's difficult to see how they violate Open Skies agreements, and what the remedy proposed by USDOS would be.

  

DL needs to bark somewhere else.
"Up the Irons!"
 
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enilria
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RE: DL CEO Speaks Of "ME3", Potentially Including TK

Tue Apr 19, 2016 5:33 pm

Quoting jacobin777 (Reply 72):
Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 58):
Just to add, the US President will be heading to Saudi Arabia next week. Besides bilateral meetings in the Kingdom, he will participate in a summit with all the GCC countries.

In the context of US-GCC relations, the health and well-being of EK, EY, and QR are strategically far more important to the Governments of Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Qatar, respectively, than this specific dispute waged by the US Big Three carriers could ever be to the US Government. The larger defence and intelligence relationship is what is important to the US.

The US3 carriers are healthy and profitable, and the ME3 carriers pose little or no threat to their success, unless they expand aggressively on US-EU Fifth Freedom routes. As long as the ME3 do not engage in price dumping, it's difficult to see how they violate Open Skies agreements, and what the remedy proposed by USDOS would be.

  

DL needs to bark somewhere else.

I think it is no coincidence, however, that the ME3 have not announced a new USA destination in about a year. I think either they are avoiding fanning the flames by choice (which does not sound like QR's modus operandi), OR they were told to stop adding markets until the election or otherwise risk bilateral talks being opened.
 
aviationaware
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RE: DL CEO Speaks Of "ME3", Potentially Including TK

Wed Apr 20, 2016 7:29 am

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 70):
You realize the Turkish state is not building the new Istanbul airport. A private conglomerate won the bid and is building it by investing EUR 22.1 Billion.

Doesn't matter. Building the airport was and is a political decision. Without that decision, no private investment would have been able to build that airport.

UAE and Turkey have the political will it takes to move such projects forward, the west does not. That is all I was saying. A favorable political environment is invaluable to these developments.
 
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enilria
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RE: DL CEO Speaks Of "ME3", Potentially Including TK

Wed Apr 20, 2016 1:10 pm

Quoting aviationaware (Reply 74):
Doesn't matter. Building the airport was and is a political decision.
Quoting aviationaware (Reply 74):
UAE and Turkey have the political will it takes to move such projects forward, the west does not. That is all I was saying. A favorable political environment is invaluable to these developments.

Building any airport in the USA is a political decision as all the airports (except Branson) are owned by the government. DIA/DEN was built from the ground up as a new airport. It's been growing like a weed. Back further in history DFW was a new airport and grew like a weed. Chicago keeps talking about a new airport. Berlin built a new airport (cough, cough). Not sure I understand the delineation. Is it that one is happening right now and one happened more than a decade ago? Not sure why that makes a difference in terms of being legitimately objective. Further, what is the contrary position? They should be forced to operate out of an at capacity airport when they can just build another one like plenty of places have?
 
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enilria
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RE: DL CEO Speaks Of "ME3", Potentially Including TK

Wed Apr 20, 2016 2:45 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
He may have misspoke, but I think it implies they don't really consider a difference between TK and the ME3 carriers (EY/EK/QR). It will be interesting to see if that implies a future political effort against TK as well.

VERY interesting development. I wonder now if he didn't misspeak after all.

http://news.delta.com/delta-suspend-new-york-jfk-istanbul-service
 
jacobin777
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RE: DL CEO Speaks Of "ME3", Potentially Including TK

Wed Apr 20, 2016 4:51 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 73):
I think it is no coincidence, however, that the ME3 have not announced a new USA destination in about a year. I think either they are avoiding fanning the flames by choice (which does not sound like QR's modus operandi), OR they were told to stop adding markets until the election or otherwise risk bilateral talks being opened.

IMHO, its a multitude of factors. Maybe what you state is part of the reason.
"Up the Irons!"

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