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enilria
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Will Airlines Swarm EWR Like They Did LGA?

Fri Apr 15, 2016 3:30 pm

With EWR losing slots, will we see a repeat of the feeding frenzy that took place when the FAA allowed unlimited regional slots at LGA back in the 1990s? The logic of the airlines was to grab as much airspace as possible so they had the most grandfathered rights when the music stopped. An airborne game of musical chairs. Will history repeat itself?

I expect UA to be first to try this tactic since they have the most gates to do it with...
 
PIEAvantiP180
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RE: Will Airlines Swarm EWR Like They Did LGA?

Fri Apr 15, 2016 3:39 pm

DL yesterday on the q1 conference call said they don't see aditional flying at EWR than already there at the moment. I'm sure we will see lcc and ulcc carriers go for the gold rush to get more flying, gate space permitting per each individual airline. Does Newark have unused gate capacity for new entrants or existing to expend, particularly WN and B6?
 
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DolphinAir747
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RE: Will Airlines Swarm EWR Like They Did LGA?

Fri Apr 15, 2016 3:49 pm

I hope not- EWR is way too small to handle all this new potential traffic. The security lines, delays, etc. are already terrible. This airport is literally bursting at the seams.
 
threeifbyair
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RE: Will Airlines Swarm EWR Like They Did LGA?

Fri Apr 15, 2016 3:56 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
I expect UA to be first to try this tactic since they have the most gates to do it with...
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Does Newark have unused gate capacity for new entrants or existing to expend, particularly WN and B6?

Therein lies the problem. EWR does not have lots of excess gate capacity. There are pockets of capacity: AS/VX has some, AA could cut some PHL flights without much impact, but EWR is not PIT when it comes to terminal availability.

Maybe UA will hold back on adding lots of flights to see what rivals do, then react accordingly. UA has the most to lose from delays at EWR and may not want to erode yields further unless there is a competitive response involved.

If NK loads up some FLL or ORD flights I think UA would counter strongly.
 
airliner371
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RE: Will Airlines Swarm EWR Like They Did LGA?

Fri Apr 15, 2016 3:59 pm

WN has room to add about 12 more flights and I fully expect them at some point to take advantage of this to expand there NYC presence as they've said they want to do.
 
a380787
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RE: Will Airlines Swarm EWR Like They Did LGA?

Fri Apr 15, 2016 4:00 pm

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 3):
If NK loads up some FLL or ORD flights I think UA would counter strongly.

UA is already at 14x EWR-ORD ... not sure how much "response" they can really make. UA EWR-FLL is only like 5x on some summer fridays so there's a lot more room to grow if needed.
 
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enilria
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RE: Will Airlines Swarm EWR Like They Did LGA?

Fri Apr 15, 2016 4:06 pm

Quoting PIEAvantiP180 (Reply 1):
DL yesterday on the q1 conference call said they don't see aditional flying at EWR than already there at the moment.

DL was already trying to sell EWR slots, so it isn't surprising.

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 3):
Maybe UA will hold back on adding lots of flights to see what rivals do, then react accordingly.

I think the reverse. We will see them do some adds here and there until they start responding to others and we see bigger jumps.

I would think if UA adds at EWR either by choice or in response to others, it comes at the likely expense of IAD.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 4):
WN has room to add about 12 more flights and I fully expect them at some point to take advantage of this to expand there NYC presence as they've said they want to do.

Although they appear to be doing poorly enough there that EWR-HOU couldn't work as well as MCI or whatever replaced it, I think they will add...EWR-HOU is probably on the list to return.
 
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STT757
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RE: Will Airlines Swarm EWR Like They Did LGA?

Fri Apr 15, 2016 4:37 pm

I expect WN and B6 to grow, and F9 and NK to add service. Even G4 has mentioned they want to add EWR. Those and UA will probably add to their portfolio, also AS / VX.

[Edited 2016-04-15 09:38:15]
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
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enilria
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RE: Will Airlines Swarm EWR Like They Did LGA?

Sun Apr 17, 2016 1:09 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
I expect UA to be first to try this tactic since they have the most gates to do it with...
OAG Changes 4/22/2016:UA+EWR-BGR/CHA/FNT/FWA/LEX (by enilria Apr 17 2016 in Civil Aviation)

UA added a bunch of routes from EWR today. Looks like it has begun...
 
tomaheath
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RE: Will Airlines Swarm EWR Like They Did LGA?

Sun Apr 17, 2016 1:14 pm

What new markets would WN serve from EWR?
 
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jfklganyc
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RE: Will Airlines Swarm EWR Like They Did LGA?

Sun Apr 17, 2016 1:21 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 8):
OAG Changes 4/22/2016:UA+EWR-BGR/CHA/FNT/FWA/LEX (by enilria Apr 17 2016 in Civil Aviation)

UA added a bunch of routes from EWR today. Looks like it has begun...

They're trying to get it slotted again. This is the first shot in a long game. They're gonna flood the place with RJs much like LGA in 2000.
 
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enilria
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RE: Will Airlines Swarm EWR Like They Did LGA?

Sun Apr 17, 2016 1:54 pm

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 10):
They're trying to get it slotted again. This is the first shot in a long game. They're gonna flood the place with RJs much like LGA in 2000.

That was my thread opening comment before this was even announced...  
Quoting tomaheath (Reply 9):
What new markets would WN serve from EWR?

HOU seems a lock since they dropped it to add MCI I think it was, but HOU makes sense. I don't get the impression that WN makes money in EWR, but they want to be bigger in NYC and this is their opportunity. So I think they will add stuff, but I don't expect it to do well. So, I think you will see them add leisure markets from EWR in addition to HOU. Florida/Vegas type stuff.
 
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STT757
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RE: Will Airlines Swarm EWR Like They Did LGA?

Sun Apr 17, 2016 2:09 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 11):
HOU seems a lock since they dropped it to add MCI I think it was, but HOU makes sense. I don't get the impression that WN makes money in EWR, but they want to be bigger in NYC and this is their opportunity. So I think they will add stuff, but I don't expect it to do well. So, I think you will see them add leisure markets from EWR in addition to HOU. Florida/Vegas type stuff.

I think HOU was dropped as a quid pro quo for the DAL gate deal. WN has 18 daily flights from 3 gates:

AUS 2, MCO 2, STL 2, MDW 7, DEN 3, PHX 1, LAS 1

I think they can get 10 a day from each, so they could potentially add another 12 daily flights.

Quoting tomaheath (Reply 9):
What new markets would WN serve from EWR?

Here's my guess, 12 additional flights:

ATL 4, DAL 2, MCO 1 additional, FLL 2, TPA 2, PBI 1
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
MIflyer12
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RE: Will Airlines Swarm EWR Like They Did LGA?

Sun Apr 17, 2016 2:50 pm

EWR is a lot more concentrated as a domestic hub (and intl hub) than LGA was, limiting other carriers' enthusiasm for taking on UA, I believe (and supported by DL's remarks). Average fares are high so there's plenty of market space for LCCs. Gate space - maybe not.

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