Ryanair Competing With 240-Seat WizzAir A321 NEOs?

LTenEleven · Mon Apr 18, 2016 5:13 pm

Wizz Air has 110 Airbus A321 NEOs on order for delivery from 2018/2019. These will be configured with 239 seats, providing unbeatable unit costs. Vueling is also likely to get some similarly configured A321 NEOs before the end of this decade.

How will Ryanair compete with this? Their 196 seat Boeing 737Max-200 are likely to still be some distance from the unit costs provided by a 239 seat A321 NEO. Part of airline's strategy until now has been using the aircraft with the lowest unit costs in the category... an advantage it will lose in the next years.

The two airlines are starting to compete head-to-head in Eastern Europe, where Wizz Air also enjoys very strong market recognition.

BlueSky1976 · Mon Apr 18, 2016 5:24 pm

I would imagine that on the same mission, the trip cost flown by 737-8-200 will be much lower from the one flown by A321neo.

Boeing's plane will have much lower OEW at the expense of 40 seats, while A321neo needs those extra seats to earn its revenue.

richardw · Mon Apr 18, 2016 5:25 pm

Vueling already has A321s.

Ryanair are probably happy with their forecast total annual revenues less total annual costs that they'll get with their B737 fleet.

LTenEleven · Mon Apr 18, 2016 5:40 pm

Good point about the OEW, but with load factors in the 85-94% range, I would say both airlines are easily able fill a 240 seat A321 NEO.

The A321 NEO looks like a superb machine, especially on the ever growing average sector length of European LCCs. I am sure Wizz Air and eventually Vueling will use it to maximum advantage when going head-to-head with other LCCs.

Okcflyer · Mon Apr 18, 2016 6:33 pm

We need to look the numbers up. I suspect CASM between a 197 seat Max-8 and 239 seat 21'NEO are similar enough that the lower trip price and ease of filling the craft routinely will make up for it.

CRJ900 · Mon Apr 18, 2016 8:13 pm

The current Wizz Air A321s have 230 seats according to wikipedia, so I guess they already have a pretty good idea about the economics. Would love to see a trip report from one of those aircraft.

N1120A · Mon Apr 18, 2016 9:08 pm

Quoting LTenEleven (Thread starter):
Their 196 seat Boeing 737Max-200 are likely to still be some distance from the unit costs provided by a 239 seat A321 NEO.

Remember that their 189 seat 738s already compete with 200+ seat A321s. Not really much of a difference, except the 738s are more flexible.

parapente · Mon Apr 18, 2016 9:17 pm

Not when you say 200 + rather than the actual number.

trent1000 · Tue Apr 19, 2016 12:56 am

Seat density at 239 is really pushing the envelope. The Airbus website states a capacity up to 240 seats.
I wonder if this would change following lawsuits from the relatives of "normal" passengers unable to exit quickly enough in an emergency. After all, the evacuation tests don't seem to allow for fallen baggage, broken material, aisle obstructions and less physically-mobile people (based on age, weight, physical disability).

JetBuddy · Tue Apr 19, 2016 1:15 am

Quoting N1120A (Reply 6):
Remember that their 189 seat 738s already compete with 200+ seat A321s. Not really much of a difference, except the 738s are more flexible.

189 seats and 230 seats is a very big difference. And so will 199 and 239 be with the 737-MAX200 and A321neo.

Quoting parapente (Reply 7):

Not when you say 200 + rather than the actual number.

Exactly.

Quoting trent1000 (Reply 8):

Seat density at 239 is really pushing the envelope. The Airbus website states a capacity up to 240 seats.
I wonder if this would change following lawsuits from the relatives of "normal" passengers unable to exit quickly enough in an emergency. After all, the evacuation tests don't seem to allow for fallen baggage, broken material, aisle obstructions and less physically-mobile people (based on age, weight, physical disability).

Why would that happen to the A321neo, and not 737-MAX200? 200 people in a 737-8 is quite the sardine can configuration.

zkojq · Tue Apr 19, 2016 9:10 am

Is there any other aircraft on the market who's CASM/CASK comes close to that of an A321NEO with 239 seats? At that point it's essentially microscopic!

trent1000 · Tue Apr 19, 2016 10:06 am

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 9):
Why would that happen to the A321neo, and not 737-MAX200? 200 people in a 737-8 is quite the sardine can configuration.

Reading between the lines of what I wrote, my opinion is that as seat pitch decreases, safety risk increases. Any aircraft type that packs the maximum number of passengers is operating at the edge of a safety envelope in a number of ways.

bobdino · Tue Apr 19, 2016 10:40 am

Quoting LTenEleven (Thread starter):
The two airlines are starting to compete head-to-head in Eastern Europe, where Wizz Air also enjoys very strong market recognition.

It'll be fascinating to see. Wizz Air are the only folks with a unit cost close to that of Ryanair.

The MAX200 is going to be an interesting craft - FR is the only customer so far as far as I know. Is that likely to negatively affect the resale value of the frames? If it does, that will result in FR's unit costs climbing.

I could see the rationale for FR picking up 100 A321neos for their chunkier routes. Given the history between Airbus and Ryanair, who knows if that's realistic...

81819 · Tue Apr 19, 2016 10:45 am

Quoting okcflyer (Reply 4):
We need to look the numbers up. I suspect CASM between a 197 seat Max-8 and 239 seat 21'NEO are similar enough that the lower trip price and ease of filling the craft routinely will make up for it.

Yes, I agree. Wizzair still have to turn these larger aircraft to ensure you have strong aircraft utilisation. Not all routes can accommodate a 240 aircraft seat aircraft, so where CASM will be an advantage for some routes, trip costs will be a disadvantage for others.

I suspect Wizzair will ultimately convert some of their A321's to A320's. Time will tell

BestWestern · Tue Apr 19, 2016 10:49 am

Quoting trent1000 (Reply 11):
my opinion is that as seat pitch decreases, safety risk increases. Any aircraft type that packs the maximum number of passengers is operating at the edge of a safety envelope in a number of ways.

Aircraft have maximum seat densities permitted. we can only assume that the 321 is approved for that number of pax.

Excluding Lionair group, very few LCCs have gone for the -900 who have 214 seats on their 739s.

hOMSaR · Tue Apr 19, 2016 11:15 am

Slightly tangential question, but my memory vaguely recalls that FR's jets are going to be configured for 3 or 4 seats less than the maximum for the Max 200. Is that actually the case, and if so, why? (Related to the topic in that, if FR really cares about CASM above anything else, particularly against another airline's high-density config, increasing seat count would seem like a way to do it).

BlueSky1976 · Tue Apr 19, 2016 11:48 am

Quoting HOMsAr (Reply 15):
Slightly tangential question, but my memory vaguely recalls that FR's jets are going to be configured for 3 or 4 seats less than the maximum for the Max 200. Is that actually the case, and if so, why?

Most likely to keep the number of flight crew members at absolute minimum defined by regulations.

BestWestern · Tue Apr 19, 2016 11:57 am

Can the max200 really seat 200 or is it a PR brand name? If FR isn't putting 200 in nobody will.

BTW - same number of crew needed for 189 and 200 seats.

bobdino · Tue Apr 19, 2016 12:07 pm

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 17):
Can the max200 really seat 200 or is it a PR brand name? If FR isn't putting 200 in nobody will.

197 seats.

Source: http://corporate.ryanair.com/news/ne...rcraft-worth-up-to-22bn/?market=en

LTenEleven · Tue Apr 19, 2016 12:29 pm

The A321 NEO will have a new exit door door arrangement to allow 240 seats. This eliminates Door 2 and the first cross-aisle in the fuselage’s forward section. A new double over-wing exit will be added and Door 3 shifted aft-ward by four frames.

Ryanair Boeing 737Max-200s will have "only" 197 seats to retain the forward galley.

I would not not be so quick to underestimate the unit cost advantage of the A321 NEO.

BestWestern · Tue Apr 19, 2016 1:05 pm

So, the 200 Max should be renamed the 197Max. Boeing PR strikes again! Although not as badly as the 7-8-7 rollout of a Home Depot model.

Polot · Tue Apr 19, 2016 1:15 pm

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 20):
So, the 200 Max should be renamed the 197Max. Boeing PR strikes again! Although not as badly as the 7-8-7 rollout of a Home Depot model.

That is because Ryanair is keeping a galley so losing half a row (3 seats). You can still put in 200 seats if you want by removing the galley. Just like how Wizz Air's "240 seat A321neo" is seating 239. Airbus also has (or will have) the A320neo certified up to 195 seats when it can actually only physically fit 189 with all current space saving features (current slimlines, 28" pitch, and spaceflex v2 galleys/lavs).

BrianDromey · Tue Apr 19, 2016 1:18 pm

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 20):

I agree that is that it's hard to see who would fit the 200MAX with more seats than FR. It may be that FR feels they will make more money using the space for bar, food, scratchcard and duty free storage - which is a significant income for an airline like FR.

On a more practical note, what modifications have Boeing had to make to the 738 to allow the aircraft to be certified to 200 passengers? Have Airbus had to introduce the hinged over wing exits already seen on the 737NG, for example?

Polot · Tue Apr 19, 2016 1:20 pm

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 22):
On a more practical note, what modifications have Boeing had to make to the 738 to allow the aircraft to be certified to 200 passengers?

A pair of exits is added behind the wing like the 737-900ER.

marosbts · Tue Apr 19, 2016 1:38 pm

Does it really matter? Ryanair has the deeper pockets and can actually afford to battle Wizzair for long periods and still remain profitable, as it would compete only on a very small portion of its network. Wizzair on the other hand has been for some time (after the folding of SkyEurope) enjoying a period where they had signifficant portions of their east european network without competition. Majority of their revenue and profits are generated in that region. Now, Ryanair is pretty much going after them in their core markets and that will put pressure on their bottom line. Sure, lower cost will be good, but they do not matter if a bully (Ryanair) wants to give you some serious beating.

In a situation like this it was and will always be about who has the deeper pockets - and that is for sure Ryanair.

On the other hand, I am still waiting for EasyJet to buy Wizzair. While their business models are quite different, Wizz would pretty well compliment the network of Easyjet which has very limited exposure in eastern europe.

Buyantukhaa · Tue Apr 19, 2016 2:58 pm

Quoting LTenEleven (Reply 19):
A new double over-wing exit will be added

I assume this is identical to the A320 overwing exit.

gilesdavies · Tue Apr 19, 2016 3:34 pm

You also need to bear in mind, the moment you go over 200 seats the number of cabin crew needs to be increased from four to five, regardless if there might only be 180 passengers on the flight...

Ryanair needs to make the decision on whether the cost of buying a larger aircraft, along with the slightly increased operating costs and increased crew is worthwhile. The economics only work if all the seats of a 240 seat aircraft can be filled.

Before Ryanair took delivery of the 737-800's some 10-15 years ago, it was always considered 150 seater aircraft was the sensible size for Low Cost Carrier. Hence airlines like Southwest and easyJet operating the 737-300's, 737-700's and A319's.

It wasn't until after this the 180-200 seats for LCC became common place, so Wizzair are entering unknown water, for European Low Cost Carriers.

tommy1808 · Tue Apr 19, 2016 5:05 pm

Quoting gilesdavies (Reply 26):
The economics only work if all the seats of a 240 seat aircraft can be filled.

I'd imagine the neo will only need about 20 more seats sold to have the same per seat cost and will be 10% cheaper if sold out.

Best regards
Thomas

tommy1808 · Tue Apr 19, 2016 5:10 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 6):
Not really much of a difference, except the 738s are more flexible.

A one type fleet always offers the same flexibility, regardless of aircraft size.
And with a choice of 180, 230 and 239 seat aircraft with different engine I know who has more flexibility between the two.

Best regards
Thomas

eurowings · Tue Apr 19, 2016 6:08 pm

Quoting marosbts (Reply 24):
Wizzair on the other hand has been for some time (after the folding of SkyEurope) enjoying a period where they had signifficant portions of their east european network without competition. Majority of their revenue and profits are generated in that region. Now, Ryanair is pretty much going after them in their core markets and that will put pressure on their bottom line.

I'm not so sure about such a drastic lack of competition. The statistics* show that before the base announcements Ryanair competes with Wizz on 17 city pairs. However, I'd argue there's also more indirect competition, for example on UK-Central/Eastern Europe markets A) Wizz has LPL-BUD, while Ryan has MAN-BUD B) Wizz has BHX-WRO, Ryan has EMA-WRO C) Wizz has GLA-KTW, Ryan has EDI-KRK. LCC traffic tends to follow the routes. There's also Blue Air on the Romania - Western Europe flows.

Quoting marosbts (Reply 24):
I am still waiting for EasyJet to buy Wizzair. While their business models are quite different, Wizz would pretty well compliment the network of Easyjet which has very limited exposure in eastern europe.

I don't see it myself. EZY has traditionally focused on primary and higher yielding (by LCC standards) markets, their core markets are places like Amsterdam, London and Geneva. Outside cities like Warsaw and Budapest, I don't see them being interested. Norwegian tried a WAW hub but it didn't really work, they still have a bit of a presence though. Vueling could be interesting proposition, they seem to go for more secondary markets.

*Source: http://www.anna.aero/2016/01/13/easy...r-vueling-wizz-air-competing-more/

BrianDromey · Tue Apr 19, 2016 7:34 pm

Quoting marosbts (Reply 24):
On the other hand, I am still waiting for EasyJet to buy Wizzair. While their business models are quite different, Wizz would pretty well compliment the network of Easyjet which has very limited exposure in eastern europe.

How do you see the higher U2 cost base working out against FR, and the inevitable onslaught? The last time U2 took aim at FR, flying to ORK, NOC and SNN from LGW it didn't last very long and thought them a lesson they haven't forgotten in the decade since. Other than LTN, a garish colour palette and an A32X fleet, what have easyJet and Wizzair actually got in common? Where would the synergies be? How would shareholder value be created? I just don't see it working.

BestWestern · Wed Apr 20, 2016 12:28 am

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 30):
How would shareholder value be created? I just don't see it working.

Using Wizz lower costs to improve profitability within easy? Basically, easyJet becomes Wizz in all but name. One set of marketing costs, fleet acquisition and mx savings and operational efficiency benefits.

ODwyerPW · Wed Apr 20, 2016 3:46 pm

CASM is only one measure for calculating profitability/viability.

Airbus is able to command a decent premium on the 321NEO.
Where as Ryanair no doubt was able to acquire the 738MAX-200 at a very agreeable price (if reports of big discounts are to be believed).

Availability and Procurement Costs are also a significant part of the Ryanair 738Max200 vs WizzAir 321NEO240 duel.

LTenEleven · Wed Apr 20, 2016 3:53 pm

Wizz Air will be moving one of their LTN-OTP flights over to LGW. They must be feeling the pressure from Blue Air and increased Ryanair flights at STN down the road.

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 31):
Using Wizz lower costs to improve profitability within easy? Basically, easyJet becomes Wizz in all but name. One set of marketing costs, fleet acquisition and mx savings and operational efficiency benefits.

Makes perfect sense but I doubt Easyjet shareholders have the appetite for it. Stelios (still 30+% ownership?) prefers to run discount stores and coffee shops. Unless we see a radical change in shareholder ambition in the years, they may not even remain one of Europe's 2 dominant LCCs.

Polot · Wed Apr 20, 2016 4:02 pm

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 31):
Using Wizz lower costs to improve profitability within easy? Basically, easyJet becomes Wizz in all but name. One set of marketing costs, fleet acquisition and mx savings and operational efficiency benefits.

That is all easy to say until it comes to employee wages. Good luck convincing Easyjet employees (company age: 21 years) to take a paycut to get down to Wizz Air's (company age: 13 years) cost level. Meanwhile Wizz Air's employees would be looking at Easyjet's wages and saying they want some of that too.

Also, already being over 3x Wizz Air's size, U2 would not see much meaningful marketing/fleet acquisition/mx cost benefits from Wizz.

parapente · Wed Apr 20, 2016 4:04 pm

It's an interesting decision (The A321) by Wizz.
As stated above the LCC market has clearly moved from a 145 ish only seat model to the 190 ish seat model as the market expands - now here is one going to the 240+ size.

It is equally true however that the time to disembark is a key factor when the no of seats rises.
But the other mantra that is being quietly dropped is the 'one size only' as started by Southwest.
They now have 2 sizes as do/will Ryanair ( and 2 types of engine) and of course Easyjet as well.So a company running (say) 320's and 321's is by no means impossible.
It would not be worth it if moving to such a size (even if full) meant that over the working day you lost a flight.But if it was a longer route.Lets say 3.5 hours, you are probably only ever going to get 'there and back' in a day anyway so you might as well take the revenue of 40 extra pax every time you make the flight.
As these LCC's expand their route network there may well be more of these longer legs.

richardw · Wed Apr 20, 2016 5:45 pm

In summer easyJet's flying day at LGW starts at about 5.40am and finishes about 3.30am there was could be opportunities for extra passengers revenues with an A321.

eurowings · Wed Apr 20, 2016 11:16 pm

Quoting polot (Reply 34):
That is all easy to say until it comes to employee wages. Good luck convincing Easyjet employees (company age: 21 years) to take a paycut to get down to Wizz Air's (company age: 13 years) cost level. Meanwhile Wizz Air's employees would be looking at Easyjet's wages and saying they want some of that too.

You do have a good point, but most European LCCs with crew employed at different bases across Europe negotiate wages at base or country level. I don't know the figures but easyJet Switzerland crew are very likely to be on higher wages than crews at easyJet's German bases, due to the increased cost of living. Wizzair employs crews exclusively in Central and Eastern European countries so it's no shock that their pay will be lower.

eurowings · Wed Apr 20, 2016 11:22 pm

Quoting LTenEleven (Reply 33):
Wizz Air will be moving one of their LTN-OTP flights over to LGW. They must be feeling the pressure from Blue Air and increased Ryanair flights at STN down the road.

Interesting. There's also the fact that the route is unserved from LGW after easyJet dropped it. There might be the potential for higher yields from LGW.

LTenEleven · Thu Apr 21, 2016 9:00 am

Quoting eurowings (Reply 38):
Interesting. There's also the fact that the route is unserved from LGW after easyJet dropped it. There might be the potential for higher yields from LGW.

Also a chance to secure a few LGW slots, which is getting more and more difficult.

TUGMASTER · Thu Apr 21, 2016 8:01 pm

Quoting LTenEleven (Reply 19):

So according to the grapics you've posted, the A321neo will have 240 seats and only 2 WC...?

Holy Crap....!!!

Vasu · Thu Apr 21, 2016 8:05 pm

Quoting TUGMASTER (Reply 40):

One at the front, two tiny ones at the back (which join together to make one accessible one)

anrec80 · Fri Apr 22, 2016 6:39 am

Quoting TUGMASTER (Reply 40):
the A321neo will have 240 seats and only 2 WC...?

It's a low-cost, so why not? And what if a pax has to pay for even these WCs?

eurowings · Fri Apr 22, 2016 4:58 pm

Quoting anrec80 (Reply 42):
It's a low-cost, so why not? And what if a pax has to pay for even these WCs?

It's not just LCCs that have opted for these SpaceFlex options, Lufthansa Group has too.

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