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enilria
Posts: 10410
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

RE: DL Suspends JFK-IST

Thu Apr 21, 2016 1:20 pm

Quoting incitatus (Reply 28):
I do not condone DL's methods but they are very skilled at using PR to hurt their competitors. In this case, they scrapped the route to IST and that cost TK more than it cost them.

That's actually a very interesting supposition as to why they did not blame TK.

Quoting panamair (Reply 29):
I knew you would try your best to try to tie this whole ME3 / TK thing in
Quoting panamair (Reply 29):
so they waited till ONE MONTH before the restart to pull the service?

Dude, the suspension takes effect two days from TK's addition of ATL. It couldn't be more obvious.

Quoting panamair (Reply 29):
COME ON....They don't know why bookings are down? You mean when bookings are cancelled after each incident?

No, they don't. Airlines can only speculate why bookings down. As I said, you can't ask people who don't book. I quoted actual booking numbers for February above, they are down a little, but it is nothing dramatic. Googling I don't even see a Delta policy exception in place since 2013 *allowing* people to cancel their IST flights.

Quoting panamair (Reply 29):
Heck, just last week, the US Consulate in Istanbul issued the following warning:

...and 90% of the people who know that happened are reading this thread. That got ZERO media coverage. It wouldn't effect bookings. Yes, the ongoing situation in Turkey does not help matters, but DL isn't shutting CDG service for the Summer after what happened, which got 1000x the ink that IST events have. To say the TK service add a few days away is not the majority factor is comical, but they have their reasons for spinning it as they wish to.

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 39):
I dont know why you guys are making this about DL vs TK and service

Because the ATL TK service starts 2 days away from the cancellation.
 
FlyPNS1
Posts: 5550
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:12 am

RE: DL Suspends JFK-IST

Thu Apr 21, 2016 1:31 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 50):
Dude, the suspension takes effect two days from TK's addition of ATL. It couldn't be more obvious.

Dude that's when the suspension has to take effect because that's when the service was planned to start.

Quoting enilria (Reply 50):
Yes, the ongoing situation in Turkey does not help matters, but DL isn't shutting CDG service for the Summer after what happened, which got 1000x the ink that IST events have.

But they did chop ATL-BRU!

Quoting enilria (Reply 50):
To say the TK service add a few days away is not the majority factor is comical, but they have their reasons for spinning it as they wish to.

If TK was the only reason, DL could have cut it months ago. It's not like TK just announced the route last week. I'm not saying TK hasn't had an effect, but DL has been aware of the TK ever since TK announced the route. However, the proverbial last straw is the security mess that is Europe and the Middle East right now. The JFK-IST route was already on the marginal side, so even a relatively small loss in bookings can bring this route to its knees.
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5884
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

RE: DL Suspends JFK-IST

Thu Apr 21, 2016 1:57 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 50):
...and 90% of the people who know that happened are reading this thread. That got ZERO media coverage. It wouldn't effect bookings. Yes, the ongoing situation in Turkey does not help matters, but DL isn't shutting CDG service for the Summer after what happened, which got 1000x the ink that IST events have. To say the TK service add a few days away is not the majority factor is comical, but they have their reasons for spinning it as they wish to.

Your assumptions are quite illogical.

Most Americans interested to travel to IST will know what happened. And the cruise traffic is the deal breaker as it is a massive generator of leisure traffic from the US in Europe in summer. If cruises do not start/end at IST, people will just book to a different airport.

Comparing the effects of Paris and Istanbul do not make a lot of sense IMO.

Iberia is also chopping IST all of a sudden (announced this week and final flight is May 7).
 
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mercure1
Posts: 5214
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 5:13 am

RE: DL Suspends JFK-IST

Thu Apr 21, 2016 1:59 pm

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 45):
TK often have "sales" from Spain to Istanbul for 100 euros return ai; it makes even Ryanair look expensive!). Pegasus also helps to this.

Well both PC and TK are turning profits doing it. They both have some of the lowest cost in the world for airline sector.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 48):
10 years ago the situation was very different:

Yes the market was much smaller and Turkey was a much smaller nation economically.

In 2005 there were under 60million air passengers in Turkey, in 2015 it was 181mil.

The entire Turkish landscape has changed, the aviation market along with other parts of the economy was deregulated, the economy is now driven by consumers, etc.

But at the end, even if TK were to begin losing money its not the end. It has published profits year after year and cycles can come and go. So even a downturn is a short term event and should not change the strategy. It can certainly ride out whatever comes it way.
Lets review this thread in April 2017 and see how TK did in 2016. So far even the most pessimistic outside banks and analyst still forecast profits.
mercure f-wtcc
 
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readytotaxi
Posts: 8043
Joined: Mon Dec 11, 2006 2:09 am

RE: DL Suspends JFK-IST

Thu Apr 21, 2016 2:45 pm

TK business class product is outstanding.
Turkish Airlines Business Class IST-SFO B777 (by sfflyer123 Mar 20 2016 in Trip Reports)

I would pick that over Delta anytime.
you don't get a second chance to make a first impression!
Growing older, but not up.
 
DETA737
Posts: 627
Joined: Sat Oct 07, 2000 3:47 am

RE: DL Suspends JFK-IST

Thu Apr 21, 2016 3:35 pm

I am sure this has to do with the expansion of TK along with declining demand on behalf of American travelers. Delta probably carries mostly American passengers, and working in the travel industry, I have noticed that demand to Turkey has dropped dramatically this year, and most of the cruise lines are altering or cancelling stops in Turkey altogether (Crystal, Disney, MSC, Norwegian, Oceania, Regent, Seven Seas), whereas Celebrity has canceled overnights in Istanbul. Costa is replacing Istanbul with Rhodes. We have actually had several clients shy away from cruises with stops in Turkey (Holland, Princess), and I can imagine they might suspend stops in Turkey at some point.

As for TK, they often offer the cheapest fares between the U.S. and Europe/Asia/Middle East, often significantly cheaper. Here too we have had people say they do not want to fly Turkish Airlines despite it being far cheaper. I try to reassure them that the airline is safe, etc.
 
User avatar
enilria
Posts: 10410
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

RE: DL Suspends JFK-IST

Thu Apr 21, 2016 5:32 pm

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 51):
But they did chop ATL-BRU!

In both cases, the issue is that the market was weak and this terrorism is just enough to push it over the edge.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 51):
If TK was the only reason, DL could have cut it months ago.

I'm sure you must realize that pricing in the industry changes. Not just every few weeks, but constantly. TK has been on sale for a long time, but something like 80% of bookings are taken in the 60 days before departure. When you launch a route you put in a fierce round of stimulating fares in that 60 day window to get it off the ground well. DL only has good numbers on the impact even now for the first few flights in terms of the impact of all that. They probably underestimated how much of an effect a connecting market like ATL could have on JFK. It looks like to me that the area surrounding ATL (~2 hour drive) was about 12-15% of their traffic.

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