I also predicted the year and quarter that first flight would occur, which was almost a year beyond anyone else's prediction. I was pooh-poohed and then when I was right, I was told it was dumb luck.
My general view of the 787 program is vindicated. The 787 program can be most characterized by the spectacular and almost unprecedented incompetence of the BCA management team.
But Ron Epstein, an analyst at Bank of America, estimated that cash flowing from the Dreamliner by 2022 will be $14 billion rather than the $29 billion assumed in Boeing’s outlook.
To reach that number and eliminate the almost $29 billion in deferred production costs already accumulated by the 787 program, Boeing would need to generate a profit of $30 million for each of the 907 Dreamliners it projects making for accounting purposes, Epstein wrote.
That profit goal is “unachievable,” he said. Generating $16 million in profit per plane was more realistic, Epstein wrote.
At $16M profit per aircraft, it would take just under 2,000 frames to make up the $29Bn sunk into the program. That doesn't take interest and other accounting practices into account.
For me, this is just another example of the way that the American executive class is destroying American manufacturing.
[Edited 2016-04-21 09:00:17]