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Rdh3e
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Q2 2016 YoY US Carrier Capacity Changes

Sat Apr 23, 2016 8:33 pm

Hello Everyone, judging from Enilria's weekly thread it seems that most of the US carrier have made their changes for Q2 and are now working on Q3. As such I thought it would be appropriate to do another round-up.

You can view the Q1 stats here:
Q1 2016 YoY US Carrier Hub Capacity Changes (by RDH3E Dec 31 2015 in Civil Aviation)

Below are the Q2 comparisons. For the legacies I included stations down until there was a significant drop off. For the smaller carriers I included their 5 largest stations.
https://www.airliners.net/aviation-photos/misc/uf/143150/1461443135ZJEKgE.png

Some notes:
AA - LAX growth continues to come through
B6 - FLL continues to boom, up 20%!
DL - SEA growth continuing, ATL growing despite smaller %'s at a large amount in absolute terms.
F9 - leisure growth mode is kicking in, big gains in LAS & MCO
NK - LAX up by 100%
UA - IAH hurting
VX - perhaps the most telling here is that their third largest station has only 14 deps
WN - DAL growth story continues
 
washingtonflyer
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RE: Q2 2016 YoY US Carrier Capacity Changes

Sat Apr 23, 2016 9:00 pm

I thought CLT was going to be pulled down (/sarcasm.....)
 
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Alsatian
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RE: Q2 2016 YoY US Carrier Capacity Changes

Sat Apr 23, 2016 9:15 pm

Quoting Rdh3e (Thread starter):
UA - IAH hurting

And LAX too. DL overtakes UA in LAX now in terms of seats.

Quoting Rdh3e (Thread starter):
Some notes

JFK sees smart increase operation of VX, DL, AA and B6.
 
Sightseer
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RE: Q2 2016 YoY US Carrier Capacity Changes

Sat Apr 23, 2016 9:27 pm

Thanks for posting these. Can you give us AA's numbers at LGA?
 
MIflyer12
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RE: Q2 2016 YoY US Carrier Capacity Changes

Sat Apr 23, 2016 9:33 pm

Are there some problems in the data? How does WN have a avg gauge of 99 at OAK and DAL, for example?
 
Rdh3e
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RE: Q2 2016 YoY US Carrier Capacity Changes

Sat Apr 23, 2016 9:47 pm

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 4):
How does WN have a avg gauge of 99 at OAK and DAL, for example?

Yes, I'm updating now. The number is actually just non-sense from a cell reference error.

Updated:
https://www.airliners.net/aviation-photos/misc/uf/143150/1461448227z3HPjS.png


If the mods could edit the post so this image appears first that would be preferred.

[Edited 2016-04-23 14:54:42]
 
commavia
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RE: Q2 2016 YoY US Carrier Capacity Changes

Sat Apr 23, 2016 9:50 pm

Additionally, it's hard to believe that United has more seats at EWR than IAH and ORD, and I'm not sure how AA's average seats per departure at JFK is 295 seats when AA only has one aircraft type - the 77W - with more than 295 seats and one can count the number of daily departures with said aircraft out of JFK on one hand.
 
Rdh3e
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RE: Q2 2016 YoY US Carrier Capacity Changes

Sat Apr 23, 2016 9:52 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 6):
Additionally, it's hard to believe that United has more seats at EWR than IAH and ORD, and I'm not sure how AA's average seats per departure at JFK is 295 seats when AA only has one aircraft type - the 77W - with more than 295 seats and one can count the number of daily departures with said aircraft out of JFK on one hand.

The ASMs and seats were switched, but the magnitudes are so similar it didn't jump out at me when staring at the wall of numbers.
 
commavia
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RE: Q2 2016 YoY US Carrier Capacity Changes

Sat Apr 23, 2016 10:28 pm

Cool - thanks for putting this together, interesting stuff.
 
Rdh3e
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RE: Q2 2016 YoY US Carrier Capacity Changes

Sat Apr 23, 2016 10:34 pm

Quoting washingtonflyer (Reply 1):
I thought CLT was going to be pulled down (/sarcasm.....)

It does appear that most growth at other hubs is coming out of PHL / PHX though which was a common thought previously given their proximity to other hubs and relatively smaller local markets than those hubs (JFK/LGA/DCA for PHL and LAX for PHX)
 
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jetblastdubai
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RE: Q2 2016 YoY US Carrier Capacity Changes

Sat Apr 23, 2016 11:37 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 6):
it's hard to believe that United has more seats at EWR than IAH and ORD

The way I'm seeing it, ORD and IAH have more seats than EWR but due to the average stage length, EWR generates higher ASMs. SFO has more ASMs than ORD and IAH as well with a lot fewer seats.

The promising figures with UA is that all their remaining hubs have an average gauge greater than 100 and the gauge % increase is larger across the board than almost every other competitor.
 
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enilria
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RE: Q2 2016 YoY US Carrier Capacity Changes

Sun Apr 24, 2016 9:09 am

Quoting Rdh3e (Reply 5):

In the case of NK I don't think your listed stations are their largest stations. Can you verify? At least one seems to be missing that is larger than LAX.
 
MIflyer12
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RE: Q2 2016 YoY US Carrier Capacity Changes

Sun Apr 24, 2016 12:03 pm

Thanks for doing the work and again for providing the correction. Seat counts and ASM totals beat flight frequency for many analyses.
 
hiflyer
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RE: Q2 2016 YoY US Carrier Capacity Changes

Sun Apr 24, 2016 12:35 pm

Believe UA deliberately pulled down LAX due to the large reconstruction ongoing on Term 7...however that has let AA and DL jump up and may not be easily regained. Think all the large carriers numbers may be impacted by the rapid elimination of sub 50 and 50 seat flying with larger aircraft flying less frequently.
 
Rdh3e
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RE: Q2 2016 YoY US Carrier Capacity Changes

Sun Apr 24, 2016 1:52 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 11):
I don't think your listed stations are their largest stations

It looks like I could add DTW but by departures it's now just behind LAX.
 
tortugamon
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RE: Q2 2016 YoY US Carrier Capacity Changes

Sun Apr 24, 2016 3:12 pm

Thank you for putting this together again.

Is this mainline only? I would have expected AA's operation at LGA to show up but not if its mainline only.

thanks

tortugamon
 
Rdh3e
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RE: Q2 2016 YoY US Carrier Capacity Changes

Sun Apr 24, 2016 3:42 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 15):
Is this mainline only? I would have expected AA's operation at LGA to show up but not if its mainline only.

It's on the one in reply 5.

Quoting Rdh3e (Reply 5):

 
Prost
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RE: Q2 2016 YoY US Carrier Capacity Changes

Sun Apr 24, 2016 5:11 pm

In comparing Alaska and Delta in Seattle, is Horizon and Delta connection included?

This is an interesting tool, and I appreciate the legwork you've done.
 
MIflyer12
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RE: Q2 2016 YoY US Carrier Capacity Changes

Sun Apr 24, 2016 5:31 pm

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 10):
The promising figures with UA is that all their remaining hubs have an average gauge greater than 100 and the gauge % increase is larger across the board than almost every other competitor.

A bigger gauge INCREASE than competitors really isn't very telling. Southwest has been all mainline for a while now... DL got started dumping 50-seaters 3-4 years ahead of UA. The UA network is still cursed with lots of ERJ-145s. Look at the avg gauge out of EWR vs. AA at DFW or (especially) DL out of ATL.
 
Rdh3e
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RE: Q2 2016 YoY US Carrier Capacity Changes

Sun Apr 24, 2016 5:41 pm

Quoting Prost (Reply 17):
In comparing Alaska and Delta in Seattle, is Horizon and Delta connection included?

Yes, it is by marketing carrier so those are included.
 
jacobin777
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RE: Q2 2016 YoY US Carrier Capacity Changes

Sun Apr 24, 2016 7:00 pm

Quoting Alsatian (Reply 2):
Quoting Rdh3e (Thread starter):
UA - IAH hurting

And LAX too. DL overtakes UA in LAX now in terms of seats.

That's quite impressive from just a few years ago!
"Up the Irons!"
 
a380787
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RE: Q2 2016 YoY US Carrier Capacity Changes

Sun Apr 24, 2016 7:04 pm

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 18):

If you want to talk about EWR gauge, let's look at DL LGA and AA LGA, neither of which surpass 100
 
Rdh3e
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RE: Q2 2016 YoY US Carrier Capacity Changes

Sun Apr 24, 2016 7:12 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 21):
If you want to talk about EWR gauge, let's look at DL LGA and AA LGA, neither of which surpass 100

But EWR has transcon and international which pull up gauge compared to LGA.
 
Sightseer
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RE: Q2 2016 YoY US Carrier Capacity Changes

Sun Apr 24, 2016 7:24 pm

Quoting Rdh3e (Reply 22):
Quoting a380787 (Reply 21):
If you want to talk about EWR gauge, let's look at DL LGA and AA LGA, neither of which surpass 100

But EWR has transcon and international which pull up gauge compared to LGA.

Exactly. And conversely, with relatively fewer short hauls at JFK, AA and DL have much larger gauge there than UA does at EWR.
 
a380787
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RE: Q2 2016 YoY US Carrier Capacity Changes

Sun Apr 24, 2016 7:46 pm

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 23):

The point remains that DL and AA still is a major user of regionals when they see fit, so comparing DFW to EWR is meaningless.

Example : DL LGA BOS is on far smaller gauge than UA EWR BOS.
 
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jetblastdubai
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RE: Q2 2016 YoY US Carrier Capacity Changes

Mon Apr 25, 2016 6:11 am

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 18):
A bigger gauge INCREASE than competitors really isn't very telling. Southwest has been all mainline for a while now... DL got started dumping 50-seaters 3-4 years ahead of UA. The UA network is still cursed with lots of ERJ-145s

That was my point. UA is finally digging out of that 50-seat hole that the COALPA scope language helped keep them in much longer than everyone else.
 
Sightseer
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RE: Q2 2016 YoY US Carrier Capacity Changes

Mon Apr 25, 2016 2:04 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 24):
The point remains that DL and AA still is a major user of regionals when they see fit

Absolutely. Same for UA.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 24):
Example : DL LGA BOS is on far smaller gauge than UA EWR BOS.

But again, LGA only serves a fraction of the same traffic flows that EWR does for UA. Between LGA and JFK, DL has about 25 daily flights to BOS and AA has about 19, which I highly doubt would be the case if they combined their operations at a single airport a la UA at EWR (with 11 flights to BOS).

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