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rotating14
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779 For Qantas?

Thu Apr 28, 2016 6:25 pm

Quote:
While an order is not imminent, Evans said, conversations with Boeing revolve around the "scope and capability" of the 777X, which will have two variants, a 777-8 that will have a longer range, and a 777-9 that will be able to carry more passengers but have a slightly shorter range.

"It does look interesting though because of its range capability, said Evans. "When you are an airline that is based in our part of the world, those are things that are important to you, an aircraft that can reach major cities around the world out of Australia is attractive."




Looks like Mr Joyce might be a 777 owner. Finally!!

http://news.airwise.com/story/qantas-talking-to-boeing-on-777x
 
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Stitch
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Thu Apr 28, 2016 6:30 pm

With CASA evidently lightening up on long-range ETOPS, a 777-9 might be a decent 747-400 replacement for them.
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Thu Apr 28, 2016 6:36 pm

Quoting rotating14 (Thread starter):
Looks like Mr Joyce might be a 777 owner. Finally!!

You are reading wayyyyyy too much into such a generic statement.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
qf002
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Thu Apr 28, 2016 6:55 pm

"The A380s do a great job on the markets that they operate" - hopefully this puts an end to the constant claims that QF is not happy with their A380s.

779s make a huge amount of sense to replace the final 9 744s from around 2020.

778s I'm not so sure about. QF made very similar noises about the 77L a decade ago (it was all about "hub busting" back then) and then later said that the business model just didn't work. The 789 is enough plane for 90% of their ULH ambitions and the final 10% is probably too marginal to bother with anyway.
 
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rotating14
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Thu Apr 28, 2016 7:36 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 2):
You are reading wayyyyyy too much into such a generic statement

I'm not actually, I'm just bringing to light a news brief. Qantas might be a 777X customer, it's whatever you make of it.   
 
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sunrisevalley
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Thu Apr 28, 2016 8:11 pm

If you believe Sir Tim Clarke's assertion that the A350-1000 is a 14-hr airplane then QF is looking for something close to 17 hrs. I would think the 778X with its ~ 350 seats and generous pallet space would work very well for them. I can imagine twice daily services between some cities , one a 779X or A380 and another a 778X
 
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RyanairGuru
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Thu Apr 28, 2016 9:07 pm

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 4):

Yes you really are. They said nothing other than it is a good aircraft with attractive qualities, exactly what they said about the original 777 and later the 77W ... it meant nothing then and not much more now.

I'm not sure whether QF will eventually order the 77X or the 35J, but either way we're still a while off when they commit to either program. I suspect that the 35J could win out so long as it has reliable range LAX-SYD, as QF could trade in their A380 deposits. They really don't need the 17 hour range of the 77X other than maybe to DFW. I personally don't believe that we will ever see LHR or JFK direct regardless of what chatter pops up every now and then. 14 hours will easily cover SFO, LAX, SCL and JNB.
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coolian2
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Thu Apr 28, 2016 9:30 pm

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 4):
I'm not actually, I'm just bringing to light a news brief. Qantas might be a 777X customer, it's whatever you make of it.

This is the same as a generic positive comment about the A380 from an airline like UA.

Sure, at some point QF may order the 777X, however to take this as gospel is essentially cheerleading.
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zkojq
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Thu Apr 28, 2016 11:56 pm

Nothing to see here.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 2):
You are reading wayyyyyy too much into such a generic statement.

   All he said was that the aircraft's range was interesting. He even spent more time praising A380s!

Quoting qf002 (Reply 3):
"The A380s do a great job on the markets that they operate" - hopefully this puts an end to the constant claims that QF is not happy with their A380s.

   I have a feeling that it won't.  
Quoting qf002 (Reply 3):
779s make a huge amount of sense to replace the final 9 744s from around 2020.

I would think that an A350-1000 or potential 787-10ER would be much more flexible.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 3):
778s I'm not so sure about. QF made very similar noises about the 77L a decade ago (it was all about "hub busting" back then) and then later said that the business model just didn't work. The 789 is enough plane for 90% of their ULH ambitions and the final 10% is probably too marginal to bother with anyway.

This is pretty much my thoughts on the matter. Alan Joyce has made it pretty clear in recent times that Qantas's long haul future is the 787-9 and A380. I guess there might be room for a small subfleet of A350-1000s or 787-10ERs (should Boeing be able to extract a bit more range out of it), but nothing too significant.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 3):
778s I'm not so sure about.

The 777-8 is a plane for government subsidized airlines.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 6):
I'm not sure whether QF will eventually order the 77X or the 35J, but either way we're still a while off when they commit to either program.

and given the current fuel climate, they aren't really under too much pressure to make decision.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 6):
I suspect that the 35J could win out so long as it has reliable range LAX-SYD, as QF could trade in their A380 deposits.

Likewise, though I think it would be a relatively small subfleet.
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Ruscoe
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Fri Apr 29, 2016 7:26 am

Qantas chose the 767 over the 310 because it was more capable.
They chose the 330 over the 767 because it is more capable.
They chose the 787 over the 330 NEO because it is more capable.
They chose the 380 over the 748 because it is more capable,
and imo they will choose the 777X over the 350-1000 because it is more capable.

14hrs in the 350-1000 is just not enough for Qantas, to ensure the full gambit of future options.

Ruscoe
 
toneale
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Fri Apr 29, 2016 12:11 pm

Recently flew the A380 from SYD to DFW. The aircraft interior was already tired and the J class seating was not even close to comparable with the AA 777 J class configuration. On my 2nd trip I avoided Qantas to Dallas and flew to LAX instead just because of the difference between the A380 and 777. Added 2 hours to my home connection but it was worth it.
 
jfk777
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Fri Apr 29, 2016 3:10 pm

LHR is the only major Slot restricted airport Qantas A380's fly to, LAX is not slot restricted like JFK or LGA or DCA. QF could better served flying double daily 777-9 with morning & afternoon departures arriving at LAX in the morning & afternoon. SFO & DFW would be more efficiently flown with a 777-8/9 then their current planes even if the new ones are smaller. A 777-8 could probably fly from Sydney to JFK nonstop, on the return a west coast stop would have to be made. Qantas could do many thing not available today with 777-8/9 or A350-900 ULH.
 
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N14AZ
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Fri Apr 29, 2016 3:31 pm

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 9):
They chose the 787 over the 330 NEO because it is more capable.
They chose the 380 over the 748 because it is more capable,

Sorry for nitpicking, but I am confused: the 330NEO was not available when QF ordered the 787 and the 748i was not available when QF ordered the A380.
 
RandWkop
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Fri Apr 29, 2016 7:15 pm

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 9):

Wiki has the range of the 777 at 7600nm and the the A350 at 7990nm.
When real world loads are applied, to these aircraft, is the A350s' range more adversely affected than the 779?
I thought the quote by Tim Clarke, about the A350, were before the addition of the XWB 97?
 
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TWA772LR
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Sat Apr 30, 2016 3:34 am

I see QF going with the A350; I just feel it in my gut. As much as the 777 would be amazing for them, as others have mentioned, they already have a tab with extra A380s, and Airbus can't afford to lose that order.

Quoting ZKOJQ (Reply 8):
787-10ER

THIS! THIS should be QFs wet dream! That, coupled with a 777 or A350 fleet would make QF very formidable.
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81819
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Sat Apr 30, 2016 3:57 am

The A350 is too much aeroplane for Asia and not enough aeroplane for its US and dxb flights. With a common pilot rating a 777 & 787 aircraft combination could be the most operationally effective model.

Tje current combination of A330's for domestic and Asia with added 747's for Asia flying is not the most efficient way to fly their route network
 
Gemuser
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Sat Apr 30, 2016 4:52 am

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 11):
QF could better served flying double daily 777-9 with morning & afternoon departures arriving at LAX in the morning & afternoon.

This is the bit all you smaller aircraft enthusiasts get wrong about Qantas. What is the point of a LAX evening arrival in LAX? It only works for LAX O&D traffic, which is large I grant you but what's the point when the demand can be met by larger aircraft in the morning which cover both O&D AND transfer traffic? What is intrinsic advantage in an evening arrival?

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IndianicWorld
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Sat Apr 30, 2016 5:08 am

The biggest benefit that a A350 could bring is mainly around finding an acceptable solution to their 8 deferred A380 deliveries.

The other solution could be a 32XNEO top up order may well assist in making it worthwhile for QF, which could move to an all A32X fleet in line with with JQ's existing order book.

The A350 is a great plane but I too have my doubts that it is the right size and capability for their needs.

A 789, 778 and 779 fleet may well bring the most operational benefits for them, which will allow:

- 789 to operate domestic, Asian and thinner longer haul routes
- 778 to operate ULH sectors which are not as economically viable without its extra capability.
- 779 to operate the heavier routes that require its size and capability

Overall it will be a flexible offering that covers its current and medium term network needs.

Quoting gemuser (Reply 16):
This is the bit all you smaller aircraft enthusiasts get wrong about Qantas. What is the point of a LAX evening arrival in LAX? It only works for LAX O&D traffic, which is large I grant you but what's the point when the demand can be met by larger aircraft in the morning which cover both O&D AND transfer traffic? What is intrinsic advantage in an evening arrival?

I tend to agree.

Certain markets are not frequency dependent but need to fit around other market considerations.

The only benefit that operating smaller aircraft can bring is better yield management potential in off-peak periods.

Whether or not operating wing to wing services is as efficient operationally in peak periods is another issue, which is especially evident in the context of Australia-US flights.
 
tealnz
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Sat Apr 30, 2016 5:16 am

Quoting travelhound (Reply 15):
The A350 is too much aeroplane for Asia

At least one big player in Asia seems to see it differently: SQ will be using a bunch of their new A350-900s in a regional configuration replacing A330s.

Quoting travelhound (Reply 15):
and not enough aeroplane for its US and dxb flights

We don't have hard data yet on the A350-1000. But the -900 seems to have a clear edge over the 789s for ULH. PAL will be configuring theirs with 300 seats for the 17 hour New York route. Around the same as Sydney-DFW.
 
747m8te
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Sat Apr 30, 2016 5:32 am

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 17):
The other solution could be a 32XNEO top up order may well assist in making it worthwhile for QF, which could move to an all A32X fleet in line with with JQ's existing order book.

The A350 is a great plane but I too have my doubts that it is the right size and capability for their needs.

A 789, 778 and 779 fleet may well bring the most operational benefits for them, which will allow:

- 789 to operate domestic, Asian and thinner longer haul routes
- 778 to operate ULH sectors which are not as economically viable without its extra capability.
- 779 to operate the heavier routes that require its size and capability

Overall it will be a flexible offering that covers its current and medium term network needs.

Totally agree! Yes the pending A380 orders could work well in exchange for A320s.

My thoughts are similar to yours and ideally this is how I would love to see QFs future fleet...

Widebody/Med-Long Haul
787-9/10
777-8/9

Narrowbody/Short-Med Haul
A320NEO/321LR
CS100/300

Keeping a simplified fleet of two core types (plus variants) in each category would cover much of their capacity and route needs.

And maybe just two types for QFlink...
Q400
717-200 for a time (the CS100/300 could replace the 717s on the east coast, leaving the 717s to replace the older F100s in Network Aviations fleet). Though pending Cseries performance they could replace the 717 routes too eventually???
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81819
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Sat Apr 30, 2016 5:41 am

Quoting tealnz (Reply 18):
least one big player in Asia seems to see it differently: SQ will be using a bunch of their new A350-900s in a regional configuration replacing A330s

SQ will be flying their A350's on short and long haul routes. For them the A350 offers a platform that can fly 90% (hypothetically) of their routes.

An A350 in QANTAS's fleet would probably be too big for domestic flights and too small for long haul!
 
kaitak
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Sat Apr 30, 2016 7:31 am

I could certainly see the 778/779 as a potential aircraft for QF; seems to be a bit "meatier" than the 350, with regard to range and payload capability.

The big card for Airbus to play is, of course, the as yet undelivered A380s and how these can be dealt with. There's only so many A320s Jetstar can take, so the 350 is a possibility there. However, let's not rule out the possibility that a reworked A380 Neo could also be a possibility for QF.

I see the 787 as being the most likely mid-size vehicle for QF and having a 777/787 fleet will give QF a lot of operational flexibility, at least as far as pilot training is concerned.

The 788/789 could be used on some domestic routes; the 789/7810 on thinnish long haul services, then the 778/9 on both ULH and high density long haul routes; they will keep the 380s going as long as they have life in them - probably not a lot of resale value and limited potential for conversion to freight?
 
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Sat Apr 30, 2016 8:50 am

Quoting travelhound (Reply 20):
SQ will be flying their A350's on short and long haul routes. For them the A350 offers a platform that can fly 90% (hypothetically) of their routes.

An A350 in QANTAS's fleet would probably be too big for domestic flights and too small for long haul!

Following that reasoning the 777X would definitely be too big for QF domestic flights  

Given that both the A350 and 777X would be too big for QF domestic routes, it will come down to which aircraft is more suited to operate both current and new long haul (and medium haul) international routes. The 777X might just have the advantage.
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cougar15
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Sat Apr 30, 2016 9:48 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 22):
Given that both the A350 and 777X would be too big for QF domestic routes, it will come down to which aircraft is more suited to operate both current and new long haul (and medium haul) international routes. The 777X might just have the advantage

But would they really be too big? we are talking about deliveries in what - 10 years or so? providing the west (or moreso China´s economy) picks up again, things may look totally different years down the track....
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jfk777
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Sat Apr 30, 2016 9:57 am

Quoting gemuser (Reply 16):
This is the bit all you smaller aircraft enthusiasts get wrong about Qantas. What is the point of a LAX evening arrival in LAX? It only works for LAX O&D traffic, which is large I grant you but what's the point when the demand can be met by larger aircraft in the morning which cover both O&D AND transfer traffic? What is intrinsic advantage in an evening arrival?

At late departure and arrival give passengers a longer work day in Sydney. The transfer traffic to the east coast would be covered by the morning departure from SYD arriving as the sun rises in Los Angeles & the DFW flight. Since DFW has connections to many more cities in the eastern USA then LAX does. Many Asian airlines schedule multiple 777 daily flights to LAX, why are Qantas scheduling parameters different then say Cathay Pacific ? The flights are about the same length and cross the same number of time zones. Transfer traffic is not unique to QF at LAX, its done by dozens of Asian airlines there.
 
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zkojq
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Sat Apr 30, 2016 10:06 am

Quoting travelhound (Reply 15):
With a common pilot rating a 777 & 787

Lol someone tell that to CASA.   
First to fly the 787-9
 
coolian2
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Sat Apr 30, 2016 10:36 am

Quoting gemuser (Reply 16):
This is the bit all you smaller aircraft enthusiasts get wrong about Qantas. What is the point of a LAX evening arrival in LAX? It only works for LAX O&D traffic, which is large I grant you but what's the point when the demand can be met by larger aircraft in the morning which cover both O&D AND transfer traffic? What is intrinsic advantage in an evening arrival?

How else are you supposed to shoe-horn a 777 into the QF fleet?
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Gemuser
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Sat Apr 30, 2016 10:41 am

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 24):
At late departure and arrival give passengers a longer work day in Sydney.

BUT would the extra traffic/yield cover the additional cost of running two smaller planes? I have no idea, neither do you. My gut feel is that it wouldn't. Even when QF ran two/three B744s within a couple of hours of each other they didn't do what you suggest. IMHO VLAs [which the B77X is not IMHO] are necessary for SYD/MEL-LAX/DFW/LHR.
Another factor to conside in discussing Qf fleet choices they have never had more than 2 international types of aircraft [NOT counting types being replaced/introduced]. While conditions have changed over the decades I doubt they have changed that much.

Gemuser
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Zkpilot
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Sat Apr 30, 2016 9:11 pm

Quoting gemuser (Reply 27):
Another factor to conside in discussing Qf fleet choices they have never had more than 2 international types of aircraft [NOT counting types being replaced/introduced]. While conditions have changed over the decades I doubt they have changed that much.

Well they had A380, 744, A330, 763 all operating internationally at the same time for several years.
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Gemuser
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Sun May 01, 2016 2:52 am

Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 28):
Well they had A380, 744, A330, 763 all operating internationally at the same time for several years.

Go and read Reply 27 AGAIN! The bit you missed is "[NOT counting types being replaced/introduced]" In your example the B744s & B763s were being replaced. These changes at QF can't usually be rushed, mainly due to capex requirements.

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IndianicWorld
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Sun May 01, 2016 3:17 am

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 24):
At late departure and arrival give passengers a longer work day in Sydney. The transfer traffic to the east coast would be covered by the morning departure from SYD arriving as the sun rises in Los Angeles & the DFW flight. Since DFW has connections to many more cities in the eastern USA then LAX does. Many Asian airlines schedule multiple 777 daily flights to LAX, why are Qantas scheduling parameters different then say Cathay Pacific ? The flights are about the same length and cross the same number of time zones. Transfer traffic is not unique to QF at LAX, its done by dozens of Asian airlines there.

You can't just look at Asia-LAX and try and apply that to Australian flights.

Airlines run their schedules based on both operational and passenger requirements and therefore would nbeed to look at balancing the needs of its overall planning.

If QF, UA, DL, VA and AA are all singing a tune from a similar song book there must be a reason for it...
 
Gemuser
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Sun May 01, 2016 5:30 am

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 30):
If QF, UA, DL, VA and AA are all singing a tune from a similar song book there must be a reason for it..

        

Plus IIRC VA tried an evening departure and it did not last.

Gemuser
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jupiter2
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Sun May 01, 2016 6:42 am

Evening departures from SYD give a mid afternoon arrival in LAX, did the flight last year when QF were still doing it and the flight was chockers. The mid afternoon arrival in LAX still gives plenty of scope for connections to the western U.S and as far as we were concerned, staying in L.A. was the preferred option as it allowed us to check in at our hotel straight away.

Personally I feel the 778/779 combo would be an excellent replacement for the remaining 744's and eventually the 380's as well. Combined with a 789 and possibly the 7810, they would give a fleet ranging from 250 to 400 seats in increments of 50 seats, with the range/payload options to do everything in the current network, plus the flexibility to open new stations and seasonal capacity adjustments.
 
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RyanairGuru
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Sun May 01, 2016 8:03 am

Australia-USA has never been a market that rewards frequency, and for that reason it makes sense to use larger aircraft than add frequnency. What's more the current schedules are so similar because they work. VA tried a PM departure from SYD, it didn't last. QF tried a daylight westbound at one point, it didn't last.
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hilram
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Sun May 01, 2016 8:07 am

How come so many people here still fantasize about QF "getting rid of" their A380s, when in the first post they state that they are happy with them, and that they do their job well? Amazing!

I foresee a future QF longhaul fleet including the A380. And my current guess is that the 744s will eventually be replaced by a mix of aircraft, possibly including the 777X or A350 or A380.
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Zkpilot
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Sun May 01, 2016 8:30 am

Quoting gemuser (Reply 29):
Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 28):
Well they had A380, 744, A330, 763 all operating internationally at the same time for several years.

Go and read Reply 27 AGAIN! The bit you missed is "[NOT counting types being replaced/introduced]" In your example the B744s & B763s were being replaced. These changes at QF can't usually be rushed, mainly due to capex requirements.

Gemuser

The 763 only left QF last year... QF have had A380 for what, 7 years now? And the 744 isn't going away anytime soon. Likewise the A330 will remain in the fleet for at least another 5 years.
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jfk777
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Sun May 01, 2016 11:39 am

Quoting gemuser (Reply 27):
UT would the extra traffic/yield cover the additional cost of running two smaller planes? I have no idea, neither do you. My gut feel is that it wouldn't. Even when QF ran two/three B744s within a couple of hours of each other they didn't do what you suggest. IMHO VLAs [which the B77X is not IMHO] are necessary for SYD/MEL-LAX/DFW/LHR.
Another factor to conside in discussing Qf fleet choices they have never had more than 2 international types of aircraft [NOT counting types being replaced/introduced]. While conditions have changed over the decades I doubt they have changed that much.

I am talking 777-9 and you are talking 744, I am dealing QF fleet after the A380.
 
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seahawk
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Sun May 01, 2016 12:52 pm

Qantas is an airline that I can not see doing without the 777-9.
 
mjoelnir
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Sun May 01, 2016 1:00 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 36):
I am talking 777-9 and you are talking 744, I am dealing QF fleet after the A380.

The A380 at Qantas are not old, we will see them the next 15 years.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 36):
Qantas is an airline that I can not see doing without the 777-9

Qantas takes the rest of the ordered A380 and there will be no need for the 777-9.
 
Gemuser
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Sun May 01, 2016 9:09 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 36):
I am talking 777-9 and you are talking 744, I am dealing QF fleet after the A380.

Which will be the A380NEO or whatever VLA is developed for long fat routes. IMHO the B77X is too small for LHR, LAX & DFW and maybe two or three other destinations by 2030 - 2035 which is the earliest time frame the A380s will be replaced.

Quoting seahawk (Reply 37):
Qantas is an airline that I can not see doing without the 777-9.

IMHO it will be B787s derivatives.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 38):
Qantas takes the rest of the ordered A380 and there will be no need for the 777-9

Despite AJ recent comments I still think at least 4 and possibly all 8 outstanding A380 will eventually arrive into SYD. They may well be A380NEOs but not necessarily.

Just IMHO!

Gemuser
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sunrisevalley
Posts: 5392
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Mon May 02, 2016 12:35 am

Quoting gemuser (Reply 39):
They may well be A380NEOs but not necessarily.

whatever they are they will need to improve their DOW weight to passenger payload ratio . QF A380's need to be setup for ~550 seats as a standard configuration. This is a ratio of ~ 1.2 based on the current ~293t DOW. The alternative is , to support the present 485 seat configuration the DOW has to drop from the present to ~ 245t . This is not realistic in my view.QF need to occupy at least 75% of the seats in my view on each and every flight for it to be economically viable.
 
Gemuser
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Mon May 02, 2016 12:47 am

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 40):
whatever they are they will need to improve their DOW weight to passenger payload ratio . QF A380's need to be setup for ~550 seats as a standard configuration

No disagreement from me!

In fact IMHO QF go a step further and have at least some of their A380 set up for 600+ in a two class configuration and run them SYD/MEL-LAX/DXB/LHR/maybeDFW and charge the cheapest fares they can & still make a profit. Perhaps have JQ run them. The market is there AT THE RIGHT PRICE, Australians and a lot of Europeans will travel often in each direction, although there could be seasonality problems, but not if they can get the price low enough.

Gemuser
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sunrisevalley
Posts: 5392
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Mon May 02, 2016 1:11 am

Quoting gemuser (Reply 41):
The market is there AT THE RIGHT PRICE

I agree

Quoting gemuser (Reply 41):
although there could be seasonality problems

Just park them if need be but don't put them in the air without a predetermined load.
 
81819
Posts: 2008
Joined: Fri May 23, 2008 9:13 pm

RE: 779 For Qantas?

Mon May 02, 2016 1:46 am

Quoting gemuser (Reply 41):

Once the A380's start to come of lease/finance QANTAS will have a lot more options of what to do with the aircraft. Once these aircraft reach twelve years of age and start requiring heavy checks, QF will probably need some redundancy plans for new aircraft. Whether this be additional A380's or new 777's something will have to give in the 2021-22 time frame.

I think an additional four A380's wouldn't do QF much harm!
 
RickNRoll
Posts: 1869
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Mon May 02, 2016 4:08 am

QANTAS would have done well to buy the 777 at some time in the past but the replacement for the 777 now is the A350.
 
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seahawk
Posts: 9750
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Mon May 02, 2016 4:54 am

Quoting gemuser (Reply 39):
IMHO it will be B787s derivatives.

Only if Boeing does a 787-1000ER, otherwise I think the capacity gap between the 787-9 and the A380 is just too big, especially for an airline operating within the Asia-Pacific growth region.

And considering that they see a need to start replacing A380s with something modern by 2023, I think 777-9 is a certain bet.

http://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-flags...777x-as-potential-a380-replacement
 
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RyanairGuru
Posts: 8467
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Mon May 02, 2016 6:02 am

Quoting travelhound (Reply 43):

Once the A380 start hitting 12 years then something is going to have to give. There is no way they could run their current schedule once they start putting frames through heavy maintenance. I would expect the frames to stick around for a while, after all the 747-400ERs will have a good 18 years of life on them, but either one route is going to have to be moved to different equipment or they'll need more A380s.

I don't see 777s or A350s on property in the next five years, so most likely one route (maybe DFW) will go 2 x 789.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9411
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Mon May 02, 2016 7:22 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 46):
Quoting travelhound (Reply 43):

Once the A380 start hitting 12 years then something is going to have to give. There is no way they could run their current schedule once they start putting frames through heavy maintenance. I would expect the frames to stick around for a while, after all the 747-400ERs will have a good 18 years of life on them, but either one route is going to have to be moved to different equipment or they'll need more A380s.

I don't see 777s or A350s on property in the next five years, so most likely one route (maybe DFW) will go 2 x 789.

Qantas has 8 A380 on order, simple. The 8 787-9 on order would not be enough replacement for the 747 in use now nyway, so they could hardly do the job of the A380 too.
The newer frames at Qantas are A380 and A330, 787 and 777 would make a more complicated fleet. All 787 delivered to Qantas up to now, have ended up at Jetstar.
 
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seahawk
Posts: 9750
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RE: 779 For Qantas?

Mon May 02, 2016 7:28 am

But that is more a case for the 777. A380 + A330 alone can not fill the gap left by the 747s.
 
jupiter2
Posts: 1739
Joined: Tue Jan 02, 2001 11:30 am

RE: 779 For Qantas?

Mon May 02, 2016 7:31 am

Quoting RickNRoll (Reply 44):
QANTAS would have done well to buy the 777 at some time in the past but the replacement for the 777 now is the A350.

No one is talking about replacing 777's, bit point less anyway when QF don't operate them. The discussion is whether QF would order 778/779's to replace at first the remaining 744's and possibly in the future the 380's as well.

The 779 would be, on paper a near perfect replacement for the 744's, right there you are looking at a fleet of at least 10. A mixed order for some 778's would also give flexibility in the fleet and allow DFW to be operated without restrictions. While the 779 is mentioned as a possible replacement for the 380's, no one is expecting that to happen overnight. Even if QF ordered the 779 today, it is at least 5 years before they would arrive, a near perfect time line to replace the 747's. If they were also intended to replace the 380's, then you are looking at least the mid 2020's before it would start to happen. A mixed fleet of 789's and maybe 7810's, together with 778/779's gives a fleet with great flexibility.

The 380 at QF at present is suited to LAX/LHR and maybe HKG, they really are restricted to those final destinations, they lack the flexibility to be used to just about every other destination that QF serve. They won't be gone tomorrow, in fact they probably have at least 10 years left at QF, before they start to leave, but I would be very surprised if QF exercise the options they have for the 380. The exception would be if there was to be a major conflict in the Middle East drastically affecting the ME3. In such a situation, as long as the rest of world travel doesn't dry up as well, then I could see additional 380's being acquired to operate to Europe, but once again through South East Asia and perhaps China.

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