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2travel2know2
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RE: BA To Drop GRU/GIG After Olympics?

Tue May 03, 2016 10:06 pm

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 15):
Cuts at GIG are only natural for BA, considering that it offers an inferior schedule with its southbound daylight flight. LH and AF are more competitive.

Because oil prices and the state of the Brazilian economy GIG may not be an stellar market for BA right now but it's a destination which BA would rather fly from LGW instead of LHR (yet).
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
N1120A
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RE: BA To Drop GRU/GIG After Olympics?

Tue May 03, 2016 11:32 pm

Yeah, I really can't see them dumping GRU. Maybe keep up the mid J 747, as they shift more toward Europe-based tourists, but that is a massive market.
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
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gatibosgru
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RE: BA To Drop GRU/GIG After Olympics?

Wed May 04, 2016 1:29 am

I'm of the opinion that the hardest hit makets for Brazil won't be GRU, or maybe even GIG, but secondary cities (think AA/DL/TP) and connecting traffic in Y. GRU will continue to have demand and BA wouldn't just leave the market.

[Edited 2016-05-03 18:30:46]
@DadCelo
 
C010T3
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RE: BA To Drop GRU/GIG After Olympics?

Wed May 04, 2016 1:39 am

Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 50):
Because oil prices and the state of the Brazilian economy GIG may not be an stellar market for BA right now but it's a destination which BA would rather fly from LGW instead of LHR (yet).

If BA thinks it can move the GIG route to LGW, it should just drop it, because it won't work.
 
2travel2know2
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RE: BA To Drop GRU/GIG After Olympics?

Wed May 04, 2016 2:03 am

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 53):
If BA thinks it can move the GIG route to LGW, it should just drop it, because it won't work.

Not even with strong LON O/D and Red-eyes both ways?
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
LipeGIG
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RE: BA To Drop GRU/GIG After Olympics?

Wed May 04, 2016 4:15 am

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 53):

If BA thinks it can move the GIG route to LGW, it should just drop it, because it won't work.

Rio is not the profile of LGW. The business community in Rio is sizeable and enough to justify LHR. Shell alone have 3 buildings in Rio, and manages even USA finances. The list is extensive and includes GSK, BG, BP, BG E&P, EIC, JLT, MMD, Premier Oil, Anglo, BHP, Rolls Royce, Land Rover, BAT Souza Cruz, Subsea7, Swire Oilfield, Castrol, Deloitte... just to name the large ones from England. Which route that here is called leisure and holds such business community ? And i am not talking about Brazilian names with connections... yes Petrobras is facing hard times, but still, it is the largest Brazilian corporation and managed the largest issuance in GBP.... Vale is facing challenges, but still have thousands working for them and publish a very nice profit last week.

I just think, for now, the reduction is fine, but the route will become daily again next year when the economy begin to improve.
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
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FlyCaledonian
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RE: BA To Drop GRU/GIG After Olympics?

Wed May 04, 2016 8:59 pm

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 55):
Rio is not the profile of LGW. The business community in Rio is sizeable and enough to justify LHR. Shell alone have 3 buildings in Rio, and manages even USA finances. The list is extensive and includes GSK, BG, BP, BG E&P, EIC, JLT, MMD, Premier Oil, Anglo, BHP, Rolls Royce, Land Rover, BAT Souza Cruz, Subsea7, Swire Oilfield, Castrol, Deloitte... just to name the large ones from England. Which route that here is called leisure and holds such business community ? And i am not talking about Brazilian names with connections... yes Petrobras is facing hard times, but still, it is the largest Brazilian corporation and managed the largest issuance in GBP.... Vale is facing challenges, but still have thousands working for them and publish a very nice profit last week.

I just think, for now, the reduction is fine, but the route will become daily again next year when the economy begin to improve.

Given that GIG has only been non-stop from LHR for a couple of years, and before that was a tag from GRU, I think that a non-stop from LGW might be preferable to one-stop from LHR. We will see what BA does with GIG but I wouldn't automatically assume that it's LHR or nothing.
Let's Go British Caledonian!
 
dcajet
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RE: BA To Drop GRU/GIG After Olympics?

Wed May 04, 2016 9:06 pm

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 55):
the route will become daily again next year when the economy begin to improve.

Inshallah... But that is not what most experts agree on. Rather, they see Brazil getting into recovery mode 5-10 years from now. Which is terrible, as a sick Brazil spells bad news for the continent, let alone itself.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
SCQ83
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RE: BA To Drop GRU/GIG After Olympics?

Wed May 04, 2016 9:27 pm

I agree that GIG from LGW doesn't make sense.

GIG is not MCO or LIM targeted to British tourists. Rio is a city of +10-million and even if the financial/industrial economic elite of Brazil lives officially in Sao Paulo, they heavily gravitate towards Rio (which is a lifestyle destination) and there is oil and mining as it has been said.

In a way GIG is like MIA. Miami is not only a destination for European tourists but also a large local market and an aspirational city where many wealthy people gravitate around just for the lifestyle. That is why LHR-MIA instead of LGW-MIA.

For instance, Air France has never had issues with GIG and even today is still 11 weekly.
 
winGl3t
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RE: BA To Drop GRU/GIG After Olympics?

Wed May 04, 2016 9:58 pm

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 48):
AF fills more than one daily flight to GIG
Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 58):
For instance, Air France has never had issues with GIG and even today is still 11 weekly.

For W16 AF reduced GIG to 1 daily. No more daylight CDG-GIG or late evening GIG-CDG.
 
Freshside3
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RE: BA To Drop GRU/GIG After Olympics?

Wed May 04, 2016 10:37 pm

British visitors to Brazil don't need a visa to enter....whereas Americans do. Brits can go at the last minute without a problem, while Americans have to plan to get the visa, and then pay $100+ for it.

Therefore, a difference on BA's situation, compared to the US carriers.
 
C010T3
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RE: BA To Drop GRU/GIG After Olympics?

Wed May 04, 2016 11:06 pm

Quoting winGl3t (Reply 59):
For W16 AF reduced GIG to 1 daily. No more daylight CDG-GIG or late evening GIG-CDG.

That's a new development. I am for one relieved. That makes it easier for other airlines to retain service.
 
incitatus
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RE: BA To Drop GRU/GIG After Olympics?

Thu May 05, 2016 1:24 am

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 61):
That's a new development. I am for one relieved. That makes it easier for other airlines to retain service.

AFAIK, AF/KL have been the ones flooding the market with $499 Brazil-Europe roundtrips.
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
SCQ83
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RE: BA To Drop GRU/GIG After Olympics?

Thu May 05, 2016 6:14 am

Quoting winGl3t (Reply 59):
For W16 AF reduced GIG to 1 daily. No more daylight CDG-GIG or late evening GIG-CDG.

I wonder about CDG-BSB. That is quite a new route (2013? 2014?) and likely much more dependent on local traffic.

Quoting incitatus (Reply 62):
AFAIK, AF/KL have been the ones flooding the market with $499 Brazil-Europe roundtrips.

Lately air fares have dramatically dropped from Europe to LATAM (more than anywhere else). I assume it is a mix of oil low prices, more competition (at least until it is adjusted, but there also new carriers; from Ethiopian to Royal Air Maroc or Azul) and lower demand. It is a pity Latin American governments do not take advantage of this situation to attract more European tourists.
 
incitatus
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RE: BA To Drop GRU/GIG After Olympics?

Thu May 05, 2016 2:09 pm

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 63):
I wonder about CDG-BSB. That is quite a new route (2013? 2014?) and likely much more dependent on local traffic.

I wonder about it as well. But it relies on Brasilia originating traffic -and- traffic that GOL feeds AF at BSB. GOL has 15-20 arrivals and departures timed to feed AF.
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
Someone83
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RE: BA To Drop GRU/GIG After Olympics?

Mon May 16, 2016 6:19 am

LHR-GIG will go to 5x weekly 4-class 777-200ER the coming winter


http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/...-rio-de-janeiro-operation-changes/
 
mutu
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RE: BA To Drop GRU/GIG After Olympics?

Mon May 16, 2016 10:31 am

there you go. Capacity trimmed for winter season in response to softening demand.

Expect a similar for GRU if anything

NO major surgery here
 
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VCEflyboy
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RE: BA To Drop GRU/GIG After Olympics?

Mon May 16, 2016 10:25 pm

Word on the street is LH is considering pulling the plug on GIG, too, after the olympics.

[Edited 2016-05-16 15:26:34]
 
402679
Posts: 223
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RE: BA To Drop GRU/GIG After Olympics?

Tue May 17, 2016 4:04 am

Quoting VCEflyboy (Reply 67):

Word on the street is LH is considering pulling the plug on GIG, too, after the olympics.

I think this is another buls**t.

Edelweiss have just started their operation at GIG with a 2 weekly operation.
LH may use a smaller airplane, but I doubt it will stop flying there. Maybe use Eurowings?

Gossip really happens everywhere, from celebrities to airplanes lol.


How come BA and LH never stop their flights to EZE when in the last decade the country got worse and worse?
 
LHLX
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RE: BA To Drop GRU/GIG After Olympics?

Tue May 17, 2016 4:18 am

I don't think LH will pull GIG. They now operate a 4-class 747-800, daily. There is room to downgauge to a 3-class 747-400 or a 3-class 340-300.
Regarding GRU - I hear this flight is one where F-class is always or almost always full on LH, and not just with OP-UPGs but with fare paying pax. I have flown the FRA-GRU 4 times in the last years and F was always full, C was mostly full, and Y was anything from totally full to half empty. GRU is both a business destination as well as the biggest Int'l airport in South America and serves South America's biggest city. Since LH appears to be needing F-class on this route from FRAm this only leaves their 748s to operate this route, the only other aircraft with F-class based in FRA afre their 330s and they don't have the necessary range, their 346s operate only out of MUC.
Interestingly, LX doesn't seem to be adding the second GRU flight (the day-flight from ZRH) this winter, and last winter they flew 10-11 times weekly with 340s, this winter it appears to be 7x weekly mostly with 340s, only sometimes with their new 77Ws (according to their website booking tool).
The American carriers seem to be adding capacity to EZE while reducing capacity to GRU/GIG (especially UA and AA, not sure about DL).
 
GSTBA
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RE: BA To Drop GRU/GIG After Olympics?

Tue May 17, 2016 6:38 am

Quoting geoshina (Reply 68):
How come BA and LH never stop their flights to EZE when in the last decade the country got worse and worse?

BA didn't operate EZE direct during the period you are talking about. BA operated there EZE flights via GRU.
 
402679
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RE: BA To Drop GRU/GIG After Olympics?

Tue May 17, 2016 7:17 am

Quoting GSTBA (Reply 70):
BA didn't operate EZE direct during the period you are talking about.

The period I'm talking about goes until last year when Macri was elected president of Argentina. I think it has been 4 or 5 years that EZE got a direct flight, I think.

Does anyone remember the default episode of 2014?
 
dcajet
Posts: 4822
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:31 am

RE: BA To Drop GRU/GIG After Olympics?

Wed May 18, 2016 1:14 am

Quoting geoshina (Reply 68):
How come BA and LH never stop their flights to EZE when in the last decade the country got worse and worse?
Quoting geoshina (Reply 71):
The period I'm talking about goes until last year when Macri was elected president of Argentina. I think it has been 4 or 5 years that EZE got a direct flight, I think.

Does anyone remember the default episode of 2014?

It seems like you are not well informed about the 2007-14 period in Argentina. First, Argentina defaulted in 2001 not 2014. The latter was a conflict with bond holders from the US mostly that refused to enter in an agreement that took place in 2005. It was technically not a default on the nation's sovereign debt. It did, however, cast a shadow on Argentina, as the country was not willing to meet a legal ruling by a NY judge. It took President Macri's administration 4 months since taking office and since then 99% of bond holders have been paid and the country's Moodys and S&P ratings are al levels not seen since the 90s, and its country risk level is at levels significantly lower than Brazil's.

Argentina never had a crisis of the type that Brazil is knee deep in. First off, there was never a political crisis like Brazil's. You may or may not like Cristina Kirchner and her policies but her governance was never questioned. Economically the country was in a cast, with high inflation which is Argentina's main issue. However Argentina's economy never actually contracted, it just froze. You see, under the Kirchners Argentina grew at rates ~8% annually for around 8-9 years. Money poured into the country that was used unwisely to build this huge state support machine. When the commodities boom ended and with it the influx of money, Cristina turned to the Central Bank to print money which in turn made inflation shoot up. Travel never really contracted.

Compare that to Brazil, where in 2 years the country will contract by 10%. That is why airlines are cutting service in Brazil left and right while increasing service in Argentina. You can't compare the two cases. It is sad that Brazil will lose all that, but at the end of the day, airlines go where they can make money. Simple as that.
Keep calm and wash your hands.

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