Sydscott
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Wed May 04, 2016 11:48 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 47):
I haven't kept in-depth tabs on Chinese demand for Australia, but in New Zealand it's stratospheric:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ticle.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11633328

"China Business: Air NZ tourism market flies ahead

Stephen Jones is upbeat about the unparalleled rate of growth out of the Chinese tourism market."

I assume it's true for Australia as well, or even more so, but JB sure missed that boat.

The Chinese are travelling on tours packaged up by Chinese tour operators which have relationships with the Chinese Airlines. Commercially QF can only justify the single daily flight to PVG while JQ has a foot in the water with an OOL - Wuhan service which is backed by one of the package tour operators and is virtually a charter. Air New Zealand would be experiencing the same dynamic where internationally NZ itself is no better off but the Chinese Airlines have grown, and are growing, significantly thanks to this package tour market. So I don't think VA has missed a boat here because they, QF and NZ never had a boat in the water for this market and aren't really geared up to service it anyway. Where they are being successful though is in carrying these tours domestically which is why QF is close to both China Eastern and China Southern.

Quoting mariner (Reply 47):
I'd rather see a shake up, and I think one of the Chinese airlines could do that. I agree with the CAPA comments on China Southern:

I think CAPA is wrong in this and, frankly, I doubt there is political will in Australia to allow a Chinese Airline, which are virtually controlled by the Chinese Government, to buy VA. I also think some of CAPA's more recent "analysis" has been light weight and amateurish but that's a different topic altogether.  
Quoting allrite (Reply 48):
The problem is that it is difficult for Australian airlines to compete both on cost with the Chinese airlines and with capturing local sales networks. It's not a level playing field.

Agreed!
 
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allrite
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Thu May 05, 2016 12:07 am

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 50):
I doubt there is political will in Australia to allow a Chinese Airline, which are virtually controlled by the Chinese Government, to buy VA.

They would probably allow an investment in VA, say replacing NZ's stake. But a full takeover would be controversial. Existing to serve the needs of a certain city-state which holds themselves in very high regard (and woe be to anyone who dares criticise them - a reason you don't hear how their investments didn't always work out so well) should also be controversial, but isn't.

Quoting mariner (Reply 49):
I noted that when you first raised it, and I assume they'd buy people with that experience - the right people, of course

I think that they are more likely to be passive investors at first. Chinese companies have only relatively recently started big investments overseas so are, in most cases, still learning the ropes. Eventually they will have a pool of experience large enough to take a much more active role.

What VA needs is someone to come in now and shake things up a bit. So they need to be able to understand but also be able to rework if necessary the local culture straight away.

An investment from a self-confident US airline might be a good thing.
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mariner
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Thu May 05, 2016 12:39 am

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 50):
Air New Zealand would be experiencing the same dynamic where internationally NZ itself is no better off but the Chinese Airlines have grown, and are growing, significantly thanks to this package tour market.

That was the situation back when China/NZ service first started (and was the basis of Koruman's rants against the routes). But as the market matures, we are seeing the rise of the FIT - the financially independent traveller.

http://www.tourismnewzealand.com/mar...stats/markets/china/market-trends/

"The market is undergoing a shift towards Free Independent Travellers (FIT) as Chinese become more confident about organising their own trips and seek fresh, unique experiences.

Of the 215,040 holiday visitors in the year ending February 2015, some 73,000 were FIT (up 60 per cent on the previous year) while 144,000 were group (up 8 per cent). Independent travellers go to more regions and stay for longer. The average length of stay for a Chinese visitor is eight days."


From the Herald article:

"The airline is successfully targeting the FIT (free independent traveller) market."

I have to assume that Qantas is awake to all this, but I doubt Air NZ would be openly talking about a second daily AKL-PVG-AKL, timed to connect to South America, unless they saw value in it.

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 50):
I think CAPA is wrong in this and, frankly, I doubt there is political will in Australia to allow a Chinese Airline, which are virtually controlled by the Chinese Government, to buy VA.

You may be right about the political will - but since it hasn't been tested, I don't know, and I'm only expressing what I would prefer to see, not what I think may necessarily happen.

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 50):
I also think some of CAPA's more recent "analysis" has been light weight and amateurish but that's a different topic altogether.


I dunno. I don't read every CAPA article, only the ones that interest me.

mariner

[Edited 2016-05-04 17:51:53]
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csturdiv
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Thu May 05, 2016 1:09 am

Questions about Skytrans. Their webpage lists they have two DH1 aircraft, Planespotters says 4. There is really only one photo of Skytrans in their new livery after they came back. What is the correct current fleet number and active registrations? Also their online schedule shows no flights on the weekend, are these planes just sitting at Cairns over the weekend or are they doing weekend charters?
An American expat from the ORD area living and working in SYD
 
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allrite
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Thu May 05, 2016 1:34 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 52):
"The airline is successfully targeting the FIT (free independent traveller) market."

I have to assume that Qantas is awake to all this, but I doubt Air NZ would be openly talking about a second daily AKL-PVG-AKL, timed to connect to South America, unless they saw value in it.

Maybe if they offered 5 free tins of baby formula with every return ticket? The market will change with time and I'm sure both QF and NZ are keeping a very close eye on it. Maybe with extra aircraft in the fleet...
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travelhound
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Thu May 05, 2016 3:38 am

Quoting QF2220 (Reply 17):
QF disrupted itself, you are saying?!

The grounding disrupted the marketing actions of VA.

Quoting TN486 (Reply 19):
my reading of "disrupter" means the QF grounding nullified the momentum of VA. VA were riding a wave of customers discontent to QF's schedules as a result of the unions tactics with QF "The bake em slowly campaign". I suspect VA were loving every minute of that union action, then came the QF grounding. The resultant actions at the highest levels of government put paid to the Golden Goose for VA.

Yes, these are my thoughts. In all reality it would have taken years of marketing to change peoples perception of the than QANTAS. The grounding made people think. Where VA and SRB went wrong is they claimed the upper hand by bad mouthing an Australian Icon. In doing so they lost the credibility advantage they once had.

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 38):
I disagree. I think SQ buying VA will make for a significantly more formidable competitor to QF in terms of:

From a for the best of Australia perspective I agree that SQ would be the best buyer. In saying this if SQ did buy VA, to keep the market competitive QF should be able to buy into ANZ. This would allow for two strong carriers capable of servicing the markets Australia's economy is dependent upon.
 
kiwiandrew

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Thu May 05, 2016 4:01 am

Quoting travelhound (Reply 55):
to keep the market competitive QF should be able to buy into ANZ.

No, no, no. A thousand times no. They bought into NZ previously and it was not helpful for either carrier.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Thu May 05, 2016 4:19 am

Quoting allrite (Reply 54):
Maybe if they offered 5 free tins of baby formula with every return ticket? The market will change with time and I'm sure both QF and NZ are keeping a very close eye on it. Maybe with extra aircraft in the fleet...

Having recently been on PVG-AKL on NZ, I can assure you that its not all budget traffic ex PVG. An large amount of the traffic is connecting from/to Europe. NZ has an pretty good transit system with LH/LX/VS in PVG that allows you to remain air side and have there own transit counter. In which the airport company has installed signage showing you how to connect between NZ/LH/LX/VS and points all other airlines passengers to clear customs.

I'd happy transit via PVG again, has to be one of the cleanest airports I've been to, and very user friendly.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Thu May 05, 2016 6:24 am

Air Canada will use the 787-9 instead of 787-8 on YVR-BNE from 30th Oct 2016

http://airlineroute.net/2016/05/05/ac-w16update1/
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TruemanQLD
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Thu May 05, 2016 7:36 am

Quoting qf789 (Reply 58):

Air Canada will use the 787-9 instead of 787-8 on YVR-BNE from 30th Oct 2016

Hopefully this is because the route is performing better than expected on forward bookings...
 
Thai77w
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Thu May 05, 2016 8:29 am

Forward bookings are fantastic
Aircraft types I've been on: PA31,Q300,AT75,AT76,717,733,738,739ER,763,772,77E,773,77W,788,789,744,319,320,332,333,346,359,380
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Thu May 05, 2016 9:46 am

Quoting csturdiv (Reply 53):

Have they not been leased by PER Based Maroomba Airlines?
When is my next holiday?
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Thu May 05, 2016 10:34 am

Quoting JQflightie (Reply 61):
Have they not been leased by PER Based Maroomba Airlines?

The 3 DHC-8s operated by Maroomba (-QQD, K and L) haven't been owned by Skytrans since 2014.
B737/738/739/744ER/752/753/763/77L/77W/788/789
A223/320/321/332/333/346/359/388
MD82/MD88/717/F100/RJ85/RJ100/146-100/200/300
E175/190/CRJ700/900
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Thu May 05, 2016 10:46 am

Any idea what happen with EY455 SYD-AUH service last night? I noticed the aircraft was on bay early this afternoon? My wild guess the flight over night stopped in Sydney due to? Technical reasons? Curfew?

EK413

[Edited 2016-05-05 04:34:46]
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
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csturdiv
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Thu May 05, 2016 11:03 am

Quoting BAeRJ100 (Reply 62):
The 3 DHC-8s operated by Maroomba (-QQD, K and L) haven't been owned by Skytrans since 2014.

So that leaves them with QQA, QQF, QQG and QQI?
An American expat from the ORD area living and working in SYD
 
ben175
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Thu May 05, 2016 12:51 pm

Quoting eta unknown (Reply 45):
However, if on the one ticket you then become QF's problem. According to QF web site that one hour connection is legal, so if the LAX-SYD flight isn't held in case of delay then they must re-route you (probably SYD-SFO-LAX). SFO-LAX probably down the back. As for the B6 ticket- hope you were spending time in LAX.

Why were all the QF flights cancelled with about 5 weeks notice- my guess is the forward loads are much worse than anticipated.

Yes, all booked on one ticket. After many phonecalls QF have told us that if the MEL-SYD sector is delayed, they won't even fly us to SYD and just put us on MEL-LAX direct. Still, I would be incredibly annoyed as I am looking forward to trying AA's new J product.

No idea about the cancellations. Really poor form by QF if you ask me.

Also, can't fly the night before as we're actually flying from PER on VA and land into Melbourne at 7:30pm. Just to our luck the 9pm MEL-SYD doesn't operate on Sundays!
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Thu May 05, 2016 2:59 pm

Hi Guys. I'm looking at doing some QF FF runs as I've now changed from NZ Airpoints to QF FF.

What routes does QF/QF Link or JQ operate that is a domestic multi stop service like the UA HNL-Guam Island hopper service is (would love some outback sectors)? If there are any, does the QF status points earning apply to each sector like A-B-C or just apply as A-C.

QF state that to earn the next status level you must complete four QF flight qualifying sectors, does anyone know if JQ New Zealand domestic/Tasman sectors count as a qualifying sector?
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Thu May 05, 2016 11:02 pm

Quoting EK413 (Reply 63):
Any idea what happen with EY455 SYD-AUH service last night? I noticed the aircraft was on bay early this afternoon? My wild guess the flight over night stopped in Sydney due to? Technical reasons? Curfew?

EK413

Etihad's Wednesday service was apparently an APU fault. Seems the fault was found on the inbound flight and couldn't be resolved prior to curfew, although I imagine by that point crew hours would start to become a factor in holding the flight overnight. If it was still there 12 hours or so ago perhaps the fault was a little more serious?
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Thu May 05, 2016 11:07 pm

Quoting 777ER (Reply 66):
What routes does QF/QF Link or JQ operate that is a domestic multi stop service like the UA HNL-Guam Island hopper service is (would love some outback sectors)?

* B717 DRW-ASP-PER vv. (QF1937 / QF1938)
* DH8D up the Qld coast (used to be one flight number all the way from BNE to CNS, but now involves some changing along the way... full routing is BNE-ROK-MKY-TSV-CNS)
* DH8D to LRE, any day other than Sunday there's a stop on the northbound
* DH8C BNE-RMA-CTL

I can't think of any others and JQ definitely don't have any. I also don't know how the earning is calculated, sorry. Enjoy the flying!!
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Thu May 05, 2016 11:47 pm

Quoting 777ER (Reply 66):

If you don't already know of it, www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au is a good source of QF FFP maximisation tips!
 
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allrite
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Fri May 06, 2016 12:13 am

Quoting 777ER (Reply 66):
What routes does QF/QF Link or JQ operate that is a domestic multi stop service like the UA HNL-Guam Island hopper service is (would love some outback sectors)? If there are any, does the QF status points earning apply to each sector like A-B-C or just apply as A-C.

QF state that to earn the next status level you must complete four QF flight qualifying sectors, does anyone know if JQ New Zealand domestic/Tasman sectors count as a qualifying sector?

Jetstar flights anywhere earn FF/status points if you purchase a Starter Plus or Starter/Business Max fare.

One way I have used to keep silver is to take a return flight SYD to Japan in Business Max on Jetstar (SIN would also work) as there are domestic legs and international legs that earn almost enough and satisfy the 4 sectors. Not as cheap as it used to be though.  Sad

If your flights have a single flight number (eg ROK-CNS QF2306, 2 stops) then you only earn the rate for the one flight. If your flight numbers change (eg ROK-TSV-CNS, QF2306, QF2314, 1 stop) then you earn for two flights. Pick two regional destinations and you can often backtrack, earning extra points, but at extra cost.

[Edited 2016-05-05 17:16:15]
I like artificial banana essence!
 
travelhound
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Fri May 06, 2016 1:22 am

Akbar Al Baker comments on Virgin Australia's woes!

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...y/1e8df71a39a28d0f451a5ad97035b85d
 
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eta unknown
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Fri May 06, 2016 1:49 am

Quoting travelhound (Reply 71):
Akbar Al Baker comments on Virgin Australia's woes!

Al Baker is a very discriminate investor as he only invests in "successful" airlines. I wish I lived in his bubble... by what definition is Meridiana successful, aside from being an EU flag of convenience for QR?
 
kiwiandrew

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Fri May 06, 2016 2:04 am

Quoting eta unknown (Reply 72):
Al Baker is a very discriminate investor as he only invests in "successful" airlines. I wish I lived in his bubble... by what definition is Meridiana successful, aside from being an EU flag of convenience for QR?

Can you imagine Etihad, QR and SQ all as shareholders in VA together ? It would be carnage on a scale which would make Game of Thrones look placid.
 
IndianicWorld
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Fri May 06, 2016 2:40 am

Quoting eta unknown (Reply 72):
Al Baker is a very discriminate investor as he only invests in "successful" airlines. I wish I lived in his bubble... by what definition is Meridiana successful, aside from being an EU flag of convenience for QR?

He is a magician....

Setting up Al-Maha was a stroke of genius too.. oh wait  
 
Sydscott
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Fri May 06, 2016 5:15 am

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 73):
Can you imagine Etihad, QR and SQ all as shareholders in VA together ? It would be carnage on a scale which would make Game of Thrones look placid.

Maybe SQ and NZ can sell to QR then and start their own Australian domestic airline......................probably less expensive doing that!
 
travelhound
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Fri May 06, 2016 5:40 am

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 75):
Maybe SQ and NZ can sell to QR then and start their own Australian domestic airline......................probably less expensive doing that!

I am on the record as not being a fan if the Virgin Australia strategy, purely because the vale of Virgin Blue was spent to make Virgin Australia. It diluted Mum's and dad's shares for the sake of other and at guess "shadow" stakeholders.

That being said, Virgin Australia is now a complete airline. The purchase and subsequent integration of Skywest, the start of the regional airline and the development if code shares with other airlines really does mean VA is a stronger market position than the old VB. This was a massive undertaking and if seen in isolation should be congratulated.

I can see a foreign airline seeing plenty of value in VA. It is well run, has its costs under control, a very good product offering and well positioned in all of the Australian market segments. It just doesn't have any cash, no real liquid assets and needs to be realigned in the market place.

I'd suggest a new shareholder, a recapitalisation, a write off of some of its goodwill assets and this airline could be well positioned for substantial growth. It could be real bargain for the right airline.

For QANTAS the best thing they could hope for is a weak VA with an infighting board that is ineffectual in managing its affairs.

The worst thing would be a recapitalised VA owned by the likes of a SQ. Where it was once a war if the titans, it is now more like a game of cat and mouse.

[Edited 2016-05-05 22:50:13]
 
777ER
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Fri May 06, 2016 5:47 am

Quoting DeltaB717 (Reply 68):
* B717 DRW-ASP-PER vv. (QF1937 / QF1938)
* DH8D up the Qld coast (used to be one flight number all the way from BNE to CNS, but now involves some changing along the way... full routing is BNE-ROK-MKY-TSV-CNS)
* DH8D to LRE, any day other than Sunday there's a stop on the northbound
* DH8C BNE-RMA-CTL

Thank you. What destination is LRE and RMA? Love the sound of BNE-CNS. I remember now when booking a BNE-MKY-BNE sector in 2014 that there was an MKY-ROK-BNE offer

Quoting QF2220 (Reply 69):

Thank you for the link. Wasn't aware of the web-site.

Quoting allrite (Reply 70):
Jetstar flights anywhere earn FF/status points if you purchase a Starter Plus or Starter/Business Max fare.

Yes I'm aware of this. I'm booked on a WLG-NSN-WLG JQ sector later this month for a SC run

Quoting allrite (Reply 70):
One way I have used to keep silver is to take a return flight SYD to Japan in Business Max on Jetstar (SIN would also work) as there are domestic legs and international legs that earn almost enough and satisfy the 4 sectors.

Guess that confirms that JQ qualifies for FF runs

Quoting allrite (Reply 70):
If your flights have a single flight number (eg ROK-CNS QF2306, 2 stops) then you only earn the rate for the one flight. If your flight numbers change (eg ROK-TSV-CNS, QF2306, QF2314, 1 stop) then you earn for two flights. Pick two regional destinations and you can often backtrack, earning extra points, but at extra cost.

Thanks for the tip.

If anyone else knows any multi sector with different flight numbers then please let me know as I'm writing these all down
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kiwiandrew

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Fri May 06, 2016 6:41 am

Quoting travelhound (Reply 76):
The worst thing would be a recapitalised VA owned by the likes of a SQ. Where it was once a war if the titans, it is now more like a game of cat and mouse.



I really hope VA can be saved. It has some advantages, it's not quite the bloated mess that AN was, although it has made some of the same mistakes ( too many types in the fleet, for one) but at least it is not as feather-bedded and overstaffed as AN.

Nobody, not even SQ, could have saved the utter shambles that was AN once they lost the artificial protection of the two airline policy, but SQ just might be able to sort out VA. I certainly can't see anyone else managing it.
 
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Fri May 06, 2016 6:49 am

Quoting 777ER (Reply 77):

LRE is Longreach and RMA is Roma. Longreach isn't a bad place to go for a day or to for the Qantas Founders Museum, the Stockman museum and the dinosaurs out at Winton.

As said any direct flights with a stop count as one flight from origin to destination but if there is a change of flight number it counts as two even if continuing on the same flight. JQ counts towards the four QF flight requirement so long as it is booked as a Plus or Max bundle.

DRW-GOV-CNS is an exotic option over the Top End and the Gulf. I'm not sure if it is QantasLink or Air North these days, but you will earn on Air North anyway.
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eta unknown
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Fri May 06, 2016 6:51 am

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 73):
Can you imagine Etihad, QR and SQ all as shareholders in VA together ? It would be carnage on a scale which would make Game of Thrones look placid.

I think I would pay money to see that! Ooh just wait until that little pisant doesn't get his way- I have these images of Voldemort in my head...

In other news, UA has been dropped from the Australian federal govt. travel list- there is speculation whether...
a) the submitted fares in UA's RFP response were too high
b) UA's SYD office forgot to submit the proposal

[Edited 2016-05-05 23:56:07]

[Edited 2016-05-05 23:56:39]
 
777ER
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Fri May 06, 2016 7:33 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 79):
As said any direct flights with a stop count as one flight from origin to destination but if there is a change of flight number it counts as two even if continuing on the same flight. JQ counts towards the four QF flight requirement so long as it is booked as a Plus or Max bundle.

From the looks of what I've searched for and found, only QF Link offer 1+ stops with change of flight numbers
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Fri May 06, 2016 4:22 pm

A closer read of CAO82 the CASA document outlining the rules etc. for EDTO> 180 reveals in clause 4.1.2 that quote"

"From 1st July 2015 an EDTO approval will be required for aeroplanes with more than two engines for operations with a maximum diversion time more than 180 minutes (at the approved AEO cruise speed). Note: In the case of EDTO flights with maximum diversion times beyond 180 minutes, additional flight dispatch requirements apply. Refer to Appendices 4 and 5 to CAO 82.0 end of quote.

So QF are now operating 744ER and A380 airplanes under EDTO rules to JNB, SCL and DFW from SYD..
 
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RyanairGuru
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Fri May 06, 2016 7:38 pm

Quoting eta unknown (Reply 80):

Well that was sudden! The APS were booking UA as late as Thursday.

I imagine it is a paperwork issue and not that they were bidding too high.
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eta unknown
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Sat May 07, 2016 12:08 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 83):
Well that was sudden! The APS were booking UA as late as Thursday.

The SMH reports the new policy took affect 01 May so question mark about booking UA last Thursday...
 
747m8te
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Sat May 07, 2016 12:58 am

Quoting ben175 (Reply 65):

Quoting eta unknown (Reply 45):
However, if on the one ticket you then become QF's problem. According to QF web site that one hour connection is legal, so if the LAX-SYD flight isn't held in case of delay then they must re-route you (probably SYD-SFO-LAX). SFO-LAX probably down the back. As for the B6 ticket- hope you were spending time in LAX.

Why were all the QF flights cancelled with about 5 weeks notice- my guess is the forward loads are much worse than anticipated.

Yes, all booked on one ticket. After many phonecalls QF have told us that if the MEL-SYD sector is delayed, they won't even fly us to SYD and just put us on MEL-LAX direct. Still, I would be incredibly annoyed as I am looking forward to trying AA's new J product.

No idea about the cancellations. Really poor form by QF if you ask me.

I'd rather them cancel the flights one and a half months out than closer or on the day. Odd why such a number have been cancelled but I guess if the forward bookings had low loads and no one flying it, makes no sense to fly the aircraft empty, and for the sake of 30min to 1hr for most pax from the original services on a public holiday it isn't a big change (it's not like it is a 6 hour difference or anything) making the call now with plenty of time to rebook passengers on other services.

These things happen, looking at the bigger picture sure there will always be a small handful of passengers that have issues with connections from a small time change in flights like this, but if the flights were light then it might have only been very few of you, but they are giving you options including offering the direct service to you with intent to get you to your destination that day around the same time, I wouldn't say that is poor form at all, poor form would be leaving you on the 8:30am with no options.

Personally I would take the 6am in economy (get some compensation out of them for the fare difference) and spend the extra time enjoying the lounge in Sydney  
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qf2220
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Sat May 07, 2016 4:50 am

Quoting travelhound (Reply 76):

That being said, Virgin Australia is now a complete airline. The purchase and subsequent integration of Skywest, the start of the regional airline and the development if code shares with other airlines really does mean VA is a stronger market position than the old VB. This was a massive undertaking and if seen in isolation should be congratulated.

Its a complete airline but how many fleets does it have? And if we realy look at it, how many do they need? The number of different types has to add cost to the business. If this is any indicator of the business, perhaps there are a whole bunch of other areas within the group that are less efficient than they could be.

I wonder if VA needs a good cost cutter to go through the place? JB is probably not a cost cutter as demonstrated by his time at QF and now. His strength is probably in being able to build premium quality.

A good cost cutter to take a look at the place and say, ok, lets simplify the fleet. Lets look at all the areas and how we can really reduce costs. By taking out the additional cost they don't need, they can then become a cheaper version of QF, and have the cost base. And im not talking about returning to a LCC model, just cutting unnecessary costs out of the current way of doing premium.
 
travelhound
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Sat May 07, 2016 5:06 am

Cost cutting is a two edged sword!

Quoting QF2220 (Reply 86):

I think the main problem for VA is not their cost structure per sa, but their ability to create revenues in relationship to their costs. They are reducing flying by 5%, which at a guess will reduced costs by 3%. So, this could result in a rise in unit costs.

in this instance the 5% decrease in flying should net $100 million in savings. They just have to make sure the decrease in capacity results in an equivalent loss in revenues.

I suspect VA will use their sponsorship of V8 Supercars to develop package deals to directly market to this segment. It will be interesting to see how this goes.
 
ben175
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Sat May 07, 2016 5:09 am

Quoting 747m8te (Reply 85):
Personally I would take the 6am in economy (get some compensation out of them for the fare difference) and spend the extra time enjoying the lounge in Sydney

Already asked that, and QF said they won't be offering any compensation if the first sector is in economy.
 
a320fan
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Sat May 07, 2016 5:17 am

Quoting ben175 (Reply 88):
MEL-SYD is a short flight, so I guess you have to weigh up whether you will rather take that earlier flight in Y to make sure you get on the AA flight, or take the risks with the later flight.

Also, why fly PER-MEL-SYD-LAX and not fly direct to SYD and skip a stop.

[Edited 2016-05-06 22:22:30]
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Nouflyer
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Sat May 07, 2016 5:28 am

I see that Qantas East Coast Business fares to Honolulu, which are traditionally in the $5-6K range, are now down to $2999 all the way through to 31st March 2017.

I understand that the exchange rate has taken a toll. But to what extent are Hawaiian's $2800 fares and cannibalisation by Jetstar Business Class causing this problem?

Is it viable for Qantas and Jetstar to compete to the same long-haul destinations?
 
jupiter2
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Sat May 07, 2016 6:22 am

Quoting Nouflyer (Reply 90):
Is it viable for Qantas and Jetstar to compete to the same long-haul destinations?

They have operated HNL together for years, through low dollar and high dollar values, with HA and AC previously also offering HNL flights, as well as NZ offering service via AKL. Yet both QF and JQ have increased flights over time, pretty sure that indicates that HNL is one market that they can comfortably co-exist on.
 
IndianicWorld
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Sat May 07, 2016 6:23 am

Quoting Nouflyer (Reply 90):
I see that Qantas East Coast Business fares to Honolulu, which are traditionally in the $5-6K range, are now down to $2999 all the way through to 31st March 2017.

I understand that the exchange rate has taken a toll. But to what extent are Hawaiian's $2800 fares and cannibalisation by Jetstar Business Class causing this problem?

Now that's got to hurt the bottom line.

Quoting Nouflyer (Reply 90):
Is it viable for Qantas and Jetstar to compete to the same long-haul destinations?

I don't think that QF and JQ on SYD-HNL makes sense in more challenging times.

The dual brands did a job while the route was at its peak but now it is likely best that it made its move to reduce capacity and look at using either QF or JQ as the chosen option.

With HA more than likely going to look at MEL-HNL in the next couple of years, that may also create headaches for JQ.
 
zkncj
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Sat May 07, 2016 6:49 am

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 92):
I don't think that QF and JQ on SYD-HNL makes sense in more challenging times.

Agreed - the NZ approach has allowed them to have much more flexibility on AKL-HNL, with the Seat2Suits product on this route its allowed them to take both ends of the market on an single aircraft without needing to brands/addtional aircarft.
 
ZuluAlpha
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Sat May 07, 2016 12:42 pm

Quoting Nouflyer (Reply 90):
I see that Qantas East Coast Business fares to Honolulu, which are traditionally in the $5-6K range, are now down to $2999 all the way through to 31st March 2017.

This fare is a companion fare, where a minimum of 2 persons must be in the one booking.
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RyanairGuru
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Sat May 07, 2016 10:27 pm

Quoting eta unknown (Reply 84):
question mark about booking UA last Thursday

Question away, it happened. I don't know enough about government travel to know if they would book a retail fare if it was cheaper than their contracted rates. Most corporates would.

Quoting ben175 (Reply 40):
I find it terrible that QF would cancel so many flights only a few weeks from departure

Qantas are doing this more and more now, which I honestly think is a great thing. Qantas and Virgin both have a habit of running the same schedule every single day, possibly adding or subtracting the half-hour flights if necessary. By proactively managing capacity about a month before departure they can fly the schedule that their passengers want to fly and not fly around empty planes. It reduces costs and raises yield as they are not having to still flog Red e-Deal fares the day before departure.

Delta in the US has this down to a fine art, if you make a booking with DL you can just about guarantee that what you booked isn't the flights you will fly on. AA and UA do the same, but DL take it to another level.

Serious question, why didn't you just ask to be rebooked on MEL-LAX?

They won't offer compensation for MEL-SYD being in economy because all of their business class fares permit Y on domestic sector ... they have to otherwise you couldn't connect onto the QantasLink network on the same ticket. It's a technicality, but it is a valid one.

Quoting Nouflyer (Reply 90):
I understand that the exchange rate has taken a toll. But to what extent are Hawaiian's $2800 fares and cannibalisation by Jetstar Business Class causing this problem?

You do realise don't you that (1) it's a companion fare and (2) a short-term sale available for sale until 23 May. Otherwise the leading business I fare if about $4800. All routes go on sale all the time. You are reading far too much into this.

Quoting jupiter2 (Reply 91):
They have operated HNL together for years, through low dollar and high dollar values
Quoting jupiter2 (Reply 91):
Yet both QF and JQ have increased flights over time, pretty sure that indicates that HNL is one market that they can comfortably co-exist on.

  

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 92):
makes sense in more challenging times

IMHO it makes perfect sense. The only way to pinch HA is go in high and low. If QF exit the market then HA would mop up all of the premium traffic, and if JQ exit the market then HA mop up all of the cost conscious leisure traffic. As it is the three have fairly well defined niches and seem to mutually coexist very well.
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mariner
Posts: 19473
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Sat May 07, 2016 10:36 pm

Quoting travelhound (Reply 76):
That being said, Virgin Australia is now a complete airline. The purchase and subsequent integration of Skywest, the start of the regional airline and the development if code shares with other airlines really does mean VA is a stronger market position than the old VB. This was a massive undertaking and if seen in isolation should be congratulated.

I'm not sure what you mean by a "complete" airline, but in any event the balance sheet is a shambles.

Shareholder value has been destroyed and now Credit Suisse has come out and said that Virgin will need another 1 Billion dollars in new money.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/air-nz-...layed-australian-election-b-188714

"Its share price dropped this week after sharebroker Credit Suisse indicated Virgin could require an $A1 billion equity raising, which is double previous expectations, to reduce debt to reasonable levels after it posted a profit warning earlier in the week."

Others think that a Billion may be on the high side, but even at half that it's a big chunk of money for an airline that isn't - essentially - profitable, especially given the money that has already been ploughed into it.

So I don't see what value there is in being this "complete" airline. It's a basic law of business - satisfy, that is make money, on your core market - anything else is gravy.

Virgin seems to be trying to be all things to all people - without defining, or perhaps even knowing, what its core market actually is.

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IndianicWorld
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Sun May 08, 2016 12:48 am

RyanairGuru, the issue is that the QF/JQ combo works when the market is at its strongest, but it does raise some question marks when things become more challenging.

QF needs higher yields to cover its higher cost base, so it's all well and good trying to suggest that they would give up Part of the market to HA but IF there were issues making money then that would have to change the thinking.

HNL is becoming a far different proposition than over the past few years and this will likely see airlines have to make changes, just like JQ have already done by exiting BNE-HNL. Whether or not the current mix can be sustained will be interesting to watch.
 
travelhound
Posts: 1918
Joined: Fri May 23, 2008 9:13 pm

RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Sun May 08, 2016 1:19 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 96):
I'm not sure what you mean by a "complete" airline, but in any event the balance sheet is a shambles.

Hello Mariner,

I agree with all of your points, especially the ones about the VA strategy destroying shareholder value. The numbers tell us that can't be denied.

To further clarify my argument, I believe VA's issues are marketing based as much as they are structural based. Something changed in a very short period of time during the VA/QF war that VA has not been able to recover from. I have suggested (above) the grounding of the QF fleet was such a disrupter, peoples perceptions of QF and subsequently VA changed. No longer was VA the hero and QF the villain. I think this resulted in an almost immediate change in peoples buying decisions to the detriment of VA and as a consequence VA is now in the position they are in. In essence they lost the PR war.

I think my views of SRB and his use of Mum's and Dad's money to fund his poster boy airline are well documented. I am definitely not a fan of SRB and the old VB because a lot of innocent people lost their money on lies.

In reality all of this is water under the bridge. You are correct VA needs substantial amounts of money (from where I sit $500 million would only result in VA being a passenger) to make and keep itself viable. I see VA's current woes as more of an opportunity (for the Australian public). Hopefully a new buyer can come into the fold and catapult VA into the 21st century with an Asian focus. It is my opinion the VA entity is capable of doing this where the old VB entity wasn't.

At the end of the day the market will value VA. I suspect it will have a valuation in the region of $1.5-2.0 billion for a total buy-out. For some Asian airlines this could actually be very cheap.

Ultimately, time will tell!

Travelhound
 
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eta unknown
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RE: Australian Aviation Thread Part 140

Sun May 08, 2016 1:29 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 95):
Question away, it happened

Umm... huh? I'm not questioning that it happened. Most likely scenarios:
a) a booking made in error with consultant not aware of new policy
b) a personal booking that just happened to be made by QBT Travel's Govt. travel dept.

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