|Quoting davidbyrne (Reply 165):|
Interesting to note, as well, that NZ has reduced the number of "own-metal" flights in the coming summer, compared with last.
Not surprising though, UA
services really took care of the SFO
NZ14 flights because NZ
will have an airshare agreement with UA
, If they have 3 flights worth of seats sold as NZ
ticketed fares on UA
metal( or some 42%) they are still maintaining that share of the market without the full cost of operation.
I'm heading to the states twice in June/July. Up on CA
back on SQ
, up on NZ
back on someone else - probably QF
when I book it. I haven't really been concerned with cost but as far as I see it we are in a formulative recalibrationperiod for the USA market where it actually doesn't quite follow the known peaks and troughs of traditional high/low season demand or fare price so there are great deals/capacity year round, but I get the feeling it won't last once the novelty goes away.
The capacity will chop and change as the market adjusts to change, we see already that NZ
is reallocating capacity to IAH
in lieu of NZ3/4 flights and we have seen drops in premium class U/C tickets. There is no guarantee that AA
/UA will stick at it or that another player might join - it is too early to determine yet. AKL
has not had this kind of USA service since UA
/CO/AA/HA/NZ/BA/QF all contributed with direct services and left again. My gut feeling is that the market is growing faster than demand and fares will not stay cheap once they 'rightsize' their frequencies to the demands of the market and the airport facilities. Remember it has happened before and dropped back. The exchange rate for NZD/USD is low, the cheap fares are from the other direction inbound, but the fares ex AKL
have not dropped much.
Once the inbound traffic have been will they return in number or not? Will inbound demand from China, Japan, USA, UK, Europe and South America outstrip NZL tourism's hotel capacity as the demand and availability drives prices up to an unsustainable point and push us out of the sweet spot of the market?
There is more here to this discussion than just a few extra seats/airlines serving AKL