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mjoelnir
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Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 1:25 pm

Emirates is thinking about increasing its planned fleet to 200 A380.

A possible order of A380-800 current version is discussed.

http://www.reuters.com/article/emirates-airbus-neo-idUSL5N18737Y
http://www.aero.de/news-24059/Emirat...fuer-aktuelle-A380-Generation.html
 
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zkojq
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 1:32 pm

An absolute masterstroke from John and Fabrice if they can convince EK to expand the A380 fleet even more without developing a neo.
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N14AZ
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 1:33 pm

I read this on aero.de earlier this day but thought it wouldn't be worth to post the link here since I considered it as repetiion of what EK said before, that they might order up to A380s in total.

The original Reuters article, however, includes more specific information, i.e. statements by Clark:

Quote:
"If they decide not to bring the Neo into play, we will buy more of the current A380," Clark told reporters on the sidelines of an Emirates news conference at which the airline announced a 56 percent rise in annual profit.

"As the first batch comes up to retirement we will want to replace those with more 380s ... If you replace over time it's a continuum of orders."
 
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euroflyer
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 1:43 pm

That's weird. Airbus recently reduced its production rate to 1.7. I guess they were already in talk with EK when the decision has been made. That's 2 contradictory moves...
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moo
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 1:46 pm

Quoting euroflyer (Reply 3):

That's weird. Airbus recently reduced its production rate to 1.7. I guess they were already in talk with EK when the decision has been made. That's 2 contradictory moves...

Not if the reduction alters annual production along the lines of Emirates desired delivery schedule.
 
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scbriml
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 1:52 pm

Not really news. The A380, ceo or neo, is the only plane that can replace the A380 at EK, as much as some here are determined to prove otherwise.
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migair54
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 1:57 pm

After the announcement of the highest ever profit after last year huge profit also, it seems that the A380-B77W combo is great for EK, so it does not seems illogical to increase orders and continue that way.

Many of that will be use to replace the first frames, I am not sure, but I believe so, Airbus must be working on improvements on the new models of the A380, and after what they have done with the A330 it could be a very good stuff.

The A380 is an excellent plane for Emirates, it can combine perfectly the high yield pax in big number and big economy cabins also, the only problem is belly space. In my opinion from the passanger point of view it is superior to the B77W in comfort in all the classes. The B777 has another good points also, so the mix seems to be extraordinary for EK.
 
mjoelnir
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 1:58 pm

Quoting euroflyer (Reply 3):
That's weird. Airbus recently reduced its production rate to 1.7. I guess they were already in talk with EK when the decision has been made. That's 2 contradictory moves...

If the period from 2020 to 2030 is mainly a replacement production for Emirates A380, than yearly production can not exceed 20 frames.
 
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euroflyer
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 2:10 pm

Quoting moo (Reply 4):
Not if the reduction alters annual production along the lines of Emirates desired delivery schedule.
Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 7):
If the period from 2020 to 2030 is mainly a replacement production for Emirates A380, than yearly production can not exceed 20 frames.

Yes that's true.
New potential aircrafts would be delivered between 2023 and 2026 (at current state of backlog), so that make sense with EK move to DWC
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Spiderguy252
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 2:40 pm

I find it surprising that Emirates don't need another aircraft, preferably smaller than the A388 and the B778/9 going forward.

If the smallest plane they have is a 778, the likes of QR and EY (among others) might compete and win with smaller aircraft on the basis of frequency if nothing else.
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scbriml
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 2:45 pm

Quoting Spiderguy252 (Reply 9):
I find it surprising that Emirates don't need another aircraft, preferably smaller than the A388 and the B778/9 going forward.

Well, EK are in the process of choosing between the A350 and 787 for their "small plane".  Wow!   
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fcogafa
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 2:49 pm

The following so-far unmentioned line is interesting, suggesting there may be doubt on continuing production:

===============
Clark said Emirates could increase its A380 fleet to 200 when the airline moves to Dubai's second airport, although that switch is unlikely before 2023.

"Whether that's enough to persuade Airbus to keep the line going is up to them, they have got to sell more and are trying very hard to do that," said Clark.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 2:53 pm

Quoting fcogafa (Reply 11):
The following so-far unmentioned line is interesting, suggesting there may be doubt on continuing production:

Airbus will build the A380 for as long as they have orders. If they have to lower the production rate to a crawl to bridge the time until EK is ready to add them by the score again, they will.
 
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Spiderguy252
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 3:10 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 10):
Well, EK are in the process of choosing between the A350 and 787 for their "small plane".     

Fair enough, but that's been going on for a while though, while aircraft such as the 332, 343 and 772 are only shown the door. You would think they would have aircraft smaller than the 77W to replace these.

If anything, they cancelled their A350 order a couple of years ago.
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scbriml
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 3:43 pm

Quoting Spiderguy252 (Reply 13):
Fair enough, but that's been going on for a while though

It has. It suggests to me that neither plane is exactly what EK wants and the decision is closer than some thought possible. I'm expecting news about this order at Farnborough in July.
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parapente
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 3:51 pm

Well he always said he wanted 'up to 200' so I guess nothing has changed there.He also said before that to do this it would require the new airport to be open. Again this reiterates this from previous statements.And as people have already said - what are you going to replace a A380 with- other than another one.If it is a 2 class one his capacity also goes up.

So I suppose his comment is all about price.Price of the A380's (to keep the line going whilst the 350 1000/1100 are being developed).And a very keen price on A350's?
He tends to get what he wants and one can see why.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 3:53 pm

Quoting parapente (Reply 15):
So I suppose his comment is all about price.
TC already knows he's going to get a favorable price from Airbus on any additional A380s he orders, so I believe it is more about space at Dubai to operate an expanded fleet.



Quoting Spiderguy252 (Reply 13):
Fair enough, but that's been going on for a while though, while aircraft such as the 332, 343 and 772 are only shown the door. You would think they would have aircraft smaller than the 77W to replace these.

Considering EK's traffic and growth, they just generally may not need something smaller than 350 seats. And that may be why they've taken so long to make a decision, as their internal traffic modelling may be straddling that threshold.

[Edited 2016-05-10 08:55:21]
 
UAEflyer
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 3:55 pm

It is a sign from EK to Airbus that they will support the program, whether with NEO or without, EK is desperate for A380.
 
mjoelnir
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 4:02 pm

Quoting Spiderguy252 (Reply 13):
Fair enough, but that's been going on for a while though, while aircraft such as the 332, 343 and 772 are only shown the door. You would think they would have aircraft smaller than the 77W to replace these.

If anything, they cancelled their A350 order a couple of years ago.

DXB is congested. Emirates is moving to increase passenger numbers while holding aircraft movements down. There will be no smaller planes for a while and the percentage of passengers flown with the A380 is increasing.
 
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 4:05 pm

Quoting zkojq (Reply 1):
An absolute masterstroke from John and Fabrice if they can convince EK to expand the A380 fleet even more without developing a neo.

I disagree. Many here have been saying one of the things that makes it more difficult to launch a NEO is that you can retain most of the NEO market by selling CEOs, because airlines that want a plane with its capacity have no other option.
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 4:31 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 7):
If the period from 2020 to 2030 is mainly a replacement production for Emirates A380, than yearly production can not exceed 20 frames.

1.7 * 11 is close enough, I´d say.
 
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seahawk
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 4:34 pm

And it shows that a cheaper CEO can be competitive to a too early NEO. NEO will come by 2025 and the CEO will survive until then imho.
 
LSZH34
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 4:38 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 5):
The A380, ceo or neo, is the only plane that can replace the A380 at EK

And also at LH, AF, BA and co.

Great news for Airbus if it really happens!
 
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TheRedBaron
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 5:17 pm

Weird that in the end EK will order more A388 instead of pressuring Airbus to go NEO. Also it proves that they have the confidence to have the 779 as a (small) startup and the A380 as the high density route champ.

I guess it will make even more difficult to sell the A380 to newcomers and existing customers... since EK will have a gazillion of them... so competition will be difficult...

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lightsaber
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 5:25 pm

Quoting zkojq (Reply 1):
An absolute masterstroke from John and Fabrice if they can convince EK to expand the A380 fleet even more without developing a neo.

Yes! I personally cannot believe EK would take A380CEOs post 779EIS, but Tim Clark just might know more than I in such matters.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 10):
Well, EK are in the process of choosing between the A350 and 787 for their "small plane

  . Ironically, they just need more capacity. Unless the least popularhub waves can be dramatically expanded, all the added slots will be at the expense of FlyDubai.

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Stitch
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 5:25 pm

Quoting TheRedBAron (Reply 23):
Weird that in the end EK will order more A388 instead of pressuring Airbus to go NEO.

Take what you can get - plus EK has been very successful with the current-model A380.
 
kaitak
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 5:36 pm

Has EK given up on the idea of an 11 abreast A350, which it suggested some time ago. Hopefully, the reaction was so negative that the idea died a death!

I wonder if this is an order that could be firmed up in time for Farnborough, perhaps coupled with a 359 order as well?
 
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Spiderguy252
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 5:47 pm

Quoting kaitak (Reply 26):
I wonder if this is an order that could be firmed up in time for Farnborough, perhaps coupled with a 359 order as well?

If they wanted the 359, they would have held onto their slots from the previous order and not canned them outright.
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PlanesNTrains
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 5:49 pm

Quoting Spiderguy252 (Reply 27):
If they wanted the 359, they would have held onto their slots from the previous order and not canned them outright.

This has been discussed at length in previous threads but I don't remember verbatim what was said. Bottom line: There were valid reasons for cancelling that order while also now negotiating a new order for the same model.

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scbriml
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 6:01 pm

Quoting kaitak (Reply 26):
Has EK given up on the idea of an 11 abreast A350, which it suggested some time ago. Hopefully, the reaction was so negative that the idea died a death!

I take it you mean 11-across on the A380? 11-across on an A350 would be very 'cosy'.      

EK are taking more higher-capacity, 2-class A380s. Other than reducing the proportion of premium seats, the only other way to gain a significant increase in seats would be to go 11-across. However, EK seems very happy with the current capacity of their 3-class A380s.
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PlanesNTrains
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 6:03 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 29):
11-across on an A350 would be very 'cosy'

Time for Airbus to trademark another onboard product name.  

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kaitak
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 6:05 pm

Ah yes, sorry ... 11 abreast on the A380 is what I meant; 11 abreast on the 350 doesn't really bear thinking about!
 
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Stitch
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 6:11 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 24):
Yes! I personally cannot believe EK would take A380CEOs post 779EIS, but Tim Clark just might know more than I in such matters.

The 777-9 does not get him much capacity beyond what he has with the 777-300ER so he really needs to replace "like for like" when it comes to the A380.
 
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HALtheAI
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 6:59 pm

Sir Timmy has said in the past the second tranche of 25 of the 50 ordered back in 2013 were for replacement of the first A380s to come off lease, but let's say they've changed their mind/found extra space at DXB and they'll be for growth instead with their deliveries pushed up to 2018-19 to fill the gap then. He's also talked about extending the leases on the A380s to 15 years, but that likely wouldn't apply to the early, overweight frames. Because EK only took a handful of frames in the first few years (4 in 2008, 3 in 2009, 8 in 2010, 5 in 2011) that still leaves a lot of empty production slots in the first part of the 2020s for Airbus to fill until Emirates move into DWC and can start to expand their fleet again.

[Edited 2016-05-10 12:02:42]
 
cloud4000
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 7:04 pm

These new order will have RR engines instead of GP7200s?
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Stitch
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 7:36 pm

Quoting cloud4000 (Reply 34):
These new order will have RR engines instead of GP7200s?

Stands to reason this will be the case. RR seems to be putting more effort into the Trent 900 then EA is the GP7200.
 
coolian2
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 8:21 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 5):
Not really news. The A380, ceo or neo, is the only plane that can replace the A380 at EK, as much as some here are determined to prove otherwise.

I stopped at this comment. The reason why is because I don't want to read a post that says the 777X is their replacement.

It's getting treated like the freaking 787 as the perfect aircraft on this website at times and utterly does my head in.
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PlanesNTrains
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 9:39 pm

Quoting coolian2 (Reply 36):
It's getting treated like the freaking 787 as the perfect aircraft on this website at times and utterly does my head in.

I think the people that actually believe the 777X is the perfect anything is pretty small. Doesn't mean it's a bad aircraft but I usually see it having to be defended as much as anything. I'm certainly only a lukewarm fan.

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coolian2
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 10:15 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 37):
I think the people that actually believe the 777X is the perfect anything is pretty small. Doesn't mean it's a bad aircraft but I usually see it having to be defended as much as anything. I'm certainly only a lukewarm fan.

Small but amazingly vocal.
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 11:46 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 24):
I personally cannot believe EK would take A380CEOs post 779EIS, but Tim Clark just might know more than I in such matters.

Same. IMJ the explanation has to be (1) availability and (2) slot constraints.

Were EK able to simply replace A380's with more 779 frequencies, they'd (1) have nearly equal unit costs and (2) make more profit off of cargo. TC must be expecting bilateral constraints to play a huge factor in EK's future.

...it's also true that the A388 will have a slight pax-only (non-cargo) unit cost advantage over the 779, increasing with cheap fuel. There's a good argument that heavy oil tech has put a $60 ceiling on oil prices for the next couple decades or so, so the A388's fuel inefficiency doesn't kill the business case for EK on a lower fuel price assumption.

Quoting TheRedBAron (Reply 23):
Weird that in the end EK will order more A388 instead of pressuring Airbus to go NEO.

I take this as EK's admission that it's lost that battle. Airbus has been signalling "no NEO" for some time now; developing the A35stretch would seal it's fate.

Quote:
"Whether that's enough to persuade Airbus to keep the line going is up to them, they have got to sell more and are trying very hard to do that," said Clark.

...and this is the first we've heard since December 2014 of Airbus considering ending production. I'm not surprised but I'm sure many here are.

If they're building for EK only, then it's hard to see 20/year. Airbus hasn't demonstrated an ability to produce profitably at 20/year; producing fewer than 20 would be harder yet.
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 11:52 pm

Quoting coolian2 (Reply 38):
Small but amazingly vocal.

Sure, but how you feel about it all depends on whose ox is being gored.  

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HALtheAI
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 10, 2016 11:59 pm

The A380ceo will end production in 2028 due to the recent aircraft emission standards that were enacted, so if Airbus intends (questionable) to produce the A380 after 2028, they'll need to re-engine it by then.
 
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Clipper101
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Wed May 11, 2016 4:30 am

Quoting scbriml (Reply 29):
However, EK seems very happy with the current capacity of their 3-class A380s.

I don’t buy it, if AIB offers an increase in capacity in such a way that pleases EK top management then EK will be a taker. EK does not mind increase in capacity but not on the expense of their image & passenger comfort. Lets see if AIB latest initiative of increased capacity (or what aspects of it) finds listening ears at EK for any future fleet.

[Edited 2016-05-10 21:31:57]
 
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seahawk
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Wed May 11, 2016 4:54 am

Quoting HALtheAI (Reply 41):
The A380ceo will end production in 2028 due to the recent aircraft emission standards that were enacted, so if Airbus intends (questionable) to produce the A380 after 2028, they'll need to re-engine it by then.

My sources point to a NEO ready to fly by 2023-2025. The next gen engines are not there yet, but in 4-5 years they will be.
 
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TheRedBaron
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Wed May 11, 2016 5:21 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 25):
Take what you can get - plus EK has been very successful with the current-model A380.

Agree, as much as they have argued over the years EK is very happy with the A380.

The Whale that refused to die...

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speedbored
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Wed May 11, 2016 5:48 am

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 39):
the explanation has to be (1) availability and (2) slot constraints

Or maybe it is (3) maximising the benefit of their DXB connection banks, or even (4) increased market share by satisfying customer preference.

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 39):
make more profit off of cargo

There are very few routes where there is enough profitable cargo to fill existing capacity, so adding capacity to the majority of routes would likely have the opposite effect. Overcapacity has driven down margins on many routes to the point that many airlines now completely ignore cargo in their planning for those routes.

Quoting seahawk (Reply 43):
My sources point to a NEO ready to fly by 2023-2025.

That's the noise that I'm currently hearing on the rumour mill too. It sounds like the engine manufacturers (or, most likely, just RR) are in control of the likely timing more than Airbus is.
 
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seahawk
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Wed May 11, 2016 6:05 am

Quoting speedbored (Reply 45):
That's the noise that I'm currently hearing on the rumour mill too. It sounds like the engine manufacturers (or, most likely, just RR) are in control of the likely timing more than Airbus is.

You also heard that it only is interesting if it allows a tech infusion to the other products? Which I understand that we could be looking at a bigger Trent XWB/7000/Ten up-grade based on the A380NEO engine technology. Which would be a win-win for Airbus and RR.
 
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CARST
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Wed May 11, 2016 6:57 am

Quoting migair54 (Reply 6):
After the announcement of the highest ever profit after last year huge profit also, it seems that the A380-B77W combo is great for EK, so it does not seems illogical to increase orders and continue that way.

That is not that logical at all. I bet there was a time in history when PanAm made record-profits with their brand-new 747-100 and 707 fleet. That same fleet made them hugely unprofitable just 20 years later.

I exaggerate a bit, but you get what I mean I hope. Ordering A380s and 777s (old-gen) might have been smart 10 to 20 years ago, but it isn't anymore. EK getting new (old gen) A380s in 3-8 years from now will mean that in 15 to 20 years (from today) they fly A380s which are technology-wise on the same level as were the 747-100s in 1990 when PanAm went bust.

I know PanAm had a lot of other reasons than just an old fleet, but still, how many airlines operate profitable fleets with aircraft that are 30 to 40 years old technology-wise?! I'd say ordering A350 and 77X family aircraft would be the way to go as there is no other new-gen double-decker VLA available. And the 777-9 and A350-1000 are VLAs (size-wise), just in the more boring tube with wings form.
 
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CARST
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Wed May 11, 2016 7:11 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 25):
Take what you can get - plus EK has been very successful with the current-model A380.

Same logic as migair. You don't have to be succesful in the future if you were succesful in the past.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 32):
The 777-9 does not get him much capacity beyond what he has with the 777-300ER so he really needs to replace "like for like" when it comes to the A380.

Going by the 3-class-layouts of EK this is:
77W: 360 seats
380: 489 seats

The 779 will make this difference smaller, but the A380 will still be larger by a good chunk. The question is can't better economic performance and at some airports a higher frequency not replace the A380?
 
TheSonntag
Posts: 4478
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2005 7:23 pm

RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Wed May 11, 2016 7:25 am

Quoting CARST (Reply 48):
The question is can't better economic performance and at some airports a higher frequency not replace the A380?

Probably, however, there are some issues:

a) Bilateral Agreements limiting frequencies for Emirates.
b) Timing Connections in Dubai so that transferring is possible
c) Slot limitations in Dubai. Even with the planned growth, there is a Limit sooner or later on how many flights and gates you have if you replace the A380s with 779x.

I do not really see that the 779 can replace the A380. It seems like a perfect replacement for the 77W though, because it is larger and enabling growth at places that do not justify an A380.

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