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scbriml
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Wed May 11, 2016 7:34 am

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 49):
c) Slot limitations in Dubai.

And at the other end of vital routes, like London. I've lost count of how many daily A380s EK flies to the UK as a whole.

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 49):
I do not really see that the 779 can replace the A380.

It can't at EK.   
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goosebayguy
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Wed May 11, 2016 7:48 am

How amazing EK is. Everyone here says the 380 is dead and airlines simply cannot use it. Look at Thai, AF and MH they say. Yet EK continues to fill them. Could it simply be tht the other airlines are just not competing very well? Is their product poorer? Is this why they cannot fill their aircraft? Yet Singapore and BA are looking at buying more. TK must be seriously looking to grow further to keep up.

Could it be that the 380 is a huge success or will be soon? Just like the 747 was many years ago.
 
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CARST
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Wed May 11, 2016 7:50 am

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 49):
the 779 can replace the A380
Quoting scbriml (Reply 50):
It can't at EK.

It can not size-wise. I said so. But perhaps it has to, if the A380 is deemed old tech in 10 years and ther is just no other 450+ seater VLA available. Then EK has to go the the 77X/A350 way or they end up as the PanAm of our days...


Totally different story of course if Airbus would "NEO" the A380.
 
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HALtheAI
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Wed May 11, 2016 8:41 am

Quoting CARST (Reply 48):
Going by the 3-class-layouts of EK this is:
77W: 360 seats
380: 489 seats

You're comparing an A380 with crew rest areas against a 77W without them. Incidentally, the 489- and 517-seat EK A380 configurations are old, all deliveries for the past couple years have had two more seats because of a slight adjustment in layout.

EK without crew rest
77W: 360
A388: 517/519

EK with crew rest
77W: 354
A388: 489/491

Quoting speedbored (Reply 45):
That's the noise that I'm currently hearing on the rumour mill too. It sounds like the engine manufacturers (or, most likely, just RR) are in control of the likely timing more than Airbus is.

RR said last year they won't do a "brand-new turbine" just for the A380. Therefore, it'll have to be paired with a re-engine for the A350. So I'd say something along the lines of:

2025 - EIS of A380neo with widebody version of RR's Ultrafan, a geared turbofan design
2026-27 - EIS of A350neo with same engine, but after they've had time to deal with any "teething" issues like Pratt has experienced

Quote:
WSJ - Rolls-Royce CEO Pledges to Speed Turnaround Efforts
The engine maker also remains in talks with Airbus about new projects. The European plane maker is exploring an upgrade to its A380 superjumbo with new engines. Rolls-Royce Chief Financial Officer David Smith said the company is considering providing an engine, though the development costs would have to be below those for a brand-new turbine. An engine for the A380neo, as the plane has been dubbed, “needs to make a business case at a lower volume,” Mr. Smith said.
 
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euroflyer
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Wed May 11, 2016 9:10 am

Quoting HALtheAI (Reply 53):
RR said last year they won't do a "brand-new turbine" just for the A380. Therefore, it'll have to be paired with a re-engine for the A350. So I'd say something along the lines of:

2025 - EIS of A380neo with widebody version of RR's Ultrafan, a geared turbofan design
2026-27 - EIS of A350neo with same engine, but after they've had time to deal with any "teething" issues like Pratt has experienced

That's very interesting.
I also think that RR will be the only motorist on A380neo since EK moved towards them for the latest ceo frames
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EPA001
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Wed May 11, 2016 9:13 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 43):
My sources point to a NEO ready to fly by 2023-2025. The next gen engines are not there yet, but in 4-5 years they will be.

Yes, they will be by then. And an A380-neo only makes sense to me if it is equipped with the latest engine technology, say half a generation further than what GE is working on for the B778/779.

Quoting seahawk (Reply 46):
You also heard that it only is interesting if it allows a tech infusion to the other products? Which I understand that we could be looking at a bigger Trent XWB/7000/Ten up-grade based on the A380NEO engine technology. Which would be a win-win for Airbus and RR.

That would only be logical since on A380's alone a business case for an ambitious engine program does not seem feasible to me. If they would go down the road you describe it sure would be a very good thing for Airbus and RR indeed.  

In the meantime EK needs A380's for their business model, likely even more copies than they have now. So if a NEO would enter into service in 2025 or so EK might order (in batches maybe) a lot of A380's again to renew their fleet and to protect and serve their business model.
 
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Ncfc99
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Wed May 11, 2016 9:35 am

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 39):
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 24):
I personally cannot believe EK would take A380CEOs post 779EIS, but Tim Clark just might know more than I in such matters.

Same. IMJ the explanation has to be (1) availability and (2) slot constraints.

Were EK able to simply replace A380's with more 779 frequencies, they'd (1) have nearly equal unit costs and (2) make more profit off of cargo. TC must be expecting bilateral constraints to play a huge factor in EK's future.

As was mentioned up thread, cargo yields are dropping due to the glut of belly volume/weight available on the new big twins entering the worldwide fleet and it will only be further saturated with the addition and fleet growth of the 77X/350/787's. I see cargo becoming less and less important in route planning and economics.

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 39):
Quoting TheRedBAron (Reply 23):
Weird that in the end EK will order more A388 instead of pressuring Airbus to go NEO.

I take this as EK's admission that it's lost that battle. Airbus has been signalling "no NEO" for some time now; developing the A35stretch would seal it's fate.

Or an understanding that if Airbus neo the 380 now there will be less improvement than if they wait a further year or two and get the neo they really want. Also, if Airbus has shown them the 35stretch and they like the look of that, what are the chances that they are prepared to wait for the 380neo and take some 35stretches as soon as they are available. Use the 35stretch for the medium haul work and the 77X/388 for the long haul heavy lifting.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Wed May 11, 2016 11:14 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 32):
The 777-9 does not get him much capacity beyond what he has with the 777-300ER so he really needs to replace "like for like" when it comes to the A380.

I agree passenger quantity will drop, but I see more profit per flight with the 779 as it controls costs better. Eventually CASM matters. The 779 dramatically improves over the 77W.

Quoting CARST (Reply 48):
The 779 will make this difference smaller, but the A380 will still be larger by a good chunk. The question is can't better economic performance and at some airports a higher frequency not replace the A380?

I believe that is the answer. But perhaps Airbus figured out a way to improve the A380 economics without a NEO.

EK accepting 11-across?   

Quoting Ncfc99 (Reply 56):
As was mentioned up thread, cargo yields are dropping due to the glut of belly volume/weight available on the new big twins entering the worldwide fleet and it will only be further saturated with the addition and fleet growth of the 77X/350/787's. I see cargo becoming less and less important in route planning and economics.

I see cargo being less profitable, but for those airlines that manage it well, it will still be important. If yields drop too much, then lavatories and crew rests find their way into the cargo hold.

Lightsaber
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mjoelnir
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Wed May 11, 2016 11:18 am

Quoting kaitak (Reply 26):
Has EK given up on the idea of an 11 abreast A350, which it suggested some time ago. Hopefully, the reaction was so negative that the idea died a death!

That was Amedeo talking about 11 abreast on the A380. Emirates never talked about going to 11 abreast, neither on the A350, nor on the A380.
 
parapente
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Wed May 11, 2016 12:57 pm

Reply 53
RR said last year they won't do a "brand-new turbine" just for the A380. Therefore, it'll have to be paired with a re-engine for the A350. So I'd say something along the lines of:

2025 - EIS of A380neo with widebody version of RR's Ultrafan, a geared turbofan design
2026-27 - EIS of A350neo with same engine, but after they've had time to deal with any "teething" issues like Pratt has experienced

I think that is one very possible scenario - if they can wait until 2025 with zero slippages.The 'Advance' engine core is a huge leap in itself.As is the 3d carbo/titanium wid(er) chord blades and associated carbon casing.

The Ultra envisages gearing.Gearing a giant high bypass engine of the size we are talking about is a vast undertaking.Far harder then that which P&W are doing now.
The 'Ultra' also envisages Variable Pitch on top of this! Not sure anyone has tried this on a 'fan' before - certainly not at this size. That's a vast array of new untried technology to put into an engine in one go. (Note they are developing a new combustor as well).
Personally I think that 'The Advance' engine is far more likely.But we will see.This additional order will allow the production line to stagger on to 2023. So I would envision that being the date. It also matches better for any other airline that presently operates 380's.
And yes the new engine would/could be offered for the 350 and indeed the 789/10.
 
mjoelnir
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Wed May 11, 2016 1:02 pm

But RR has made a brand new PIP for Emirates. So the 50 RR frames will have better fuel burn numbers than previous A380. We know furthermore that Airbus has been tweaking aerodynamics on the A380 the last years.

Regarding the T900 EP3:

http://aviationweek.com/commercial-a...ers-first-trent-900s-emirates-a380
 
peterinlisbon
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Wed May 11, 2016 1:09 pm

If they can expand their current fleet to 200, then slowly replace the whole lot with NEOs in the future as and when they come up for replacement that would make a lot of sense. Also, delaying the NEO would mean that it delivers more fuel saving benefits and has more orders when it does come about because it could replace A380s operated by different airlines when they get old enough to be retired.
 
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Ncfc99
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Wed May 11, 2016 2:33 pm

Quoting HALtheAI (Reply 53):
EK without crew rest
77W: 360
A388: 517/519
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 57):
Quoting Stitch (Reply 32):
The 777-9 does not get him much capacity beyond what he has with the 777-300ER so he really needs to replace "like for like" when it comes to the A380.

I agree passenger quantity will drop, but I see more profit per flight with the 779 as it controls costs better. Eventually CASM matters. The 779 dramatically improves over the 77W.

I understand that the 779 would be less risky from a CASM point of veiw, but the 388 excels from a RASM point of view. The seat counts above applied to the 779 would give the 388 over 100 extra seats, but the premium seat count of the 388 is, against the 77w, almost double. The 779 will grow the premium seat count I have no doubt, but the 388 will always generate more revenue. Then there is the premium the 388 commands to add into the mix aswell. Enough to cover the extra costs, i guess only EK would know......

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 57):
I see cargo being less profitable, but for those airlines that manage it well, it will still be important. If yields drop too much, then lavatories and crew rests find their way into the cargo hold.

I'm sure boeing and Airbus are looking into this. The 779 and proposed 35stretch have such cavernous holds it will be getting to point of being dead space. I'd like to know the percentage of revenue EK gets from its belly cargo operations.
 
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PW100
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Wed May 11, 2016 3:29 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 57):
. . . , but I see more profit per flight with the 779 as it controls costs better . . .

Are you sure about that? I mean the revenue potential of the A380 is considerably larger than 77W or even 777-9. Even if profit per seat is lower, A380 sells *a lot* more seats, 35 - 45%. That is quite some profit margin (per seat) for the 77W/X to overcome . . .
Not to mention that the cost of ownership *per seat* on the A380 is also much better than any widebody out there, incluidng 777X.

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KarelXWB
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 24, 2016 1:24 pm

So, 58 additional A380 orders. Not a small amount.

Quote:
"If they decide not to bring the Neo into play, we will buy more of the current A380," Clark told reporters on the sidelines of an Emirates news conference at which the airline announced a 56 percent rise in annual profit.

If EK wants to buy additional A380s anyway, be it CEO or NEO, why would Airbus bother developing a NEO? With today's low fuel prices, there's no business case behind an A380neo.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
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speedbored
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 24, 2016 1:53 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 64):
If EK wants to buy additional A380s anyway, be it CEO or NEO, why would Airbus bother developing a NEO? With today's low fuel prices, there's no business case behind an A380neo.

True, which makes me wonder why TC is saying he will buy CEOs anyway, when he is so keen on getting Airbus to do a NEO.

But I doubt that fuel prices will remain this low for the long term, and I can see Airbus needing a NEO to elicit sufficient orders from other customers to justify keeping the production line open.

Personally, I suspect that it will ultimately boil down to how much of the development cost the engine manufacturer will be willing to bear. So the business case will probably all depend on whether or not RR see the A380neo engine as a necessary stepping stone on the route to Ultrafan.
 
ap305
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 24, 2016 2:28 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 64):

If EK wants to buy additional A380s anyway, be it CEO or NEO, why would Airbus bother developing a NEO? With today's low fuel prices, there's no business case behind an A380neo.

I think the a380neo is now a long term prospect with the a350-8000 soon emerging as the Airbus workhorse for the high capacity routes... Sad... 4xwb based engines under a wing would make quite the sight and sound...

[Edited 2016-05-24 07:32:40]
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Stitch
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 24, 2016 2:51 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 64):
If EK wants to buy additional A380s anyway, be it CEO or NEO, why would Airbus bother developing a NEO? With today's low fuel prices, there's no business case behind an A380neo.

Preparing for a future when fuel prices are not so low?

Airlines are still ordering 787s and A350s even though A330s and 777s are cheaper to purchase and their operating costs are supported by cheap fuel.



Quoting speedbored (Reply 65):
True, which makes me wonder why TC is saying he will buy CEOs anyway, when he is so keen on getting Airbus to do a NEO.

Because Airbus knows that Clark can only replace A380s with more A380s or take a significant capacity contraction that may very well have a greater impact on their bottom line than higher fuel bills.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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RE: Emirates Is Planning Additional A380 Orders.

Tue May 24, 2016 3:16 pm

The most recent rumours about the A380neo suggested a small stretch, which would improve CASM against the 779.

Given the long timeframe for neo engine availability, I wonder if Airbus may do the stretch first, on the ceo. Given the improvements in engines and aero since launch, the payload range capability of a "stretch-ceo" may be close to that of Emirates earliest A388s, which a "sretech ceo" would replace.

Airbus has form for introducing changes in stages. E.g. A330neo weight introduced first on the ceo, A320neo sharklets introduced first on the ceo.

I doubt Airbus would do a "stretch-ceo" in isolation, it would be phase 1 of an acceptable business case for the full neo.

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