Rumor AA To Restart US-DEL Service

Crazy4Planes · Fri May 13, 2016 6:50 pm

AA is planning to restart non-stop flights to DEL by this year. It is not yet known which city in the US it will fly to.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/b...t-flights/articleshow/52230631.cms

kotoka · Fri May 13, 2016 6:58 pm

Quoting Crazy4Planes (Thread starter):
AA is planning to restart non-stop flights to DEL by this year. It is not yet known which city in the US it will fly to.

Is TOI the only source of this news? If so I would take it with a large lump of salt. And I wonder who this nameless source is that is referenced in the article's quotes.

chepos · Fri May 13, 2016 6:59 pm

I would take this with a grain of salt, only after I see an announcement from the airline would I believe this. With so much capacity by the ME3 i do not see this happening.

RTW00 · Fri May 13, 2016 7:05 pm

That's great.

What will be the US port? ORD, PHL, LAX? Can they do it from DFW?

The news also mention that AI is looking for tri-weekly non-stop BLR to SFO non-stop. Interesting.

757usairways · Fri May 13, 2016 7:06 pm

My bets would either be PHL, ORD or JFK

tlecam · Fri May 13, 2016 7:06 pm

I would guess PHL or ORD?

eal · Fri May 13, 2016 7:08 pm

I don't really see the point now given they have two strong ME partners in QR and EY. I'll believe it when I see it.

[Edited 2016-05-13 12:09:04] I'd like to see PHL but I'm sure that would drive QR crazy given how that's a poor performing station for them.

[Edited 2016-05-13 12:09:58]

slcdeltarumd11 · Fri May 13, 2016 8:08 pm

They need a place with feed. JFK is out i bet.

jfklganyc · Fri May 13, 2016 8:12 pm

I dont see them restarting India

If they do my bet is JFK. United out of EWR is the only place it has worked. You need O and D. They also have enough feed at JFK to supplement. Second gues PHL.

burnsie28 · Fri May 13, 2016 8:19 pm

This late in the year and they have not announced anything yet? Seems odd, that would likely put it into a winter time frame for start.

IrishAyes · Fri May 13, 2016 8:26 pm

This is probably a speculation in response to AC's successful resumption of YYZ-DEL and expansion into YVR-DEL.

While the US - India O&D market is significantly larger than Canada - India, and slightly higher-yielding, the reason why AC has managed to benefit in India is because the ME3 cannot expand in Canada. That is not so much the issue in the U.S.

AI also deeply discounted their ORD-DEL routes which pushed AA out of the market.

Anyways, I'll believe it when I see it

B747forever · Fri May 13, 2016 8:38 pm

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 7):
They need a place with feed. JFK is out i bet.

I would say they need a place with high O/D traffic. The ME3 already serve every major market in the US and can offer 1-stop service to India. There is no way AA will be able to compete on price, let alone product on connecting traffic. Why would you fly AA ORD-JFK/PHL-India when you can get any of the ME3 for a better price/product?

GSPSPOT · Fri May 13, 2016 9:07 pm

Don't count DFW out on this. Aside from immense hub feed, there is quite a sizeable Indo-Pak community here.

LAXdude1023 · Fri May 13, 2016 9:12 pm

Im in the club of "Ill believe it when I see it".

If they do restart it, there is no way they are going to compete with AI. JFK and ORD are out.

My first guess would be PHL and my second guess is DFW.

BigGSFO · Fri May 13, 2016 9:12 pm

The 787 probably has the economics to make it work. We will see if it happens.

LAXdude1023 · Fri May 13, 2016 9:15 pm

Quoting GSPSPOT (Reply 12):
Don't count DFW out on this. Aside from immense hub feed, there is quite a sizeable Indo-Pak community here.

People do not realize how huge the South Asian population is the DFW area. Its the 5th largest in the US after NYC, SF, Chicago, and DC. Its also the 4th fastest growing after NYC, SF, and Chicago.

jfk777 · Fri May 13, 2016 9:26 pm

Philadelphia is probably the one since southern New Jersey is its its encatchment area, NJ is full is Indians. Chicago could be it as that is where the flights were before but that was before the merger, but doing it from the east coast is better.

Ytraveller · Fri May 13, 2016 9:28 pm

Why PHL? I don't think there's such a large Indian community there. I never thought about DFW but that could work...

Cipango · Fri May 13, 2016 9:28 pm

Quoting GSPSPOT (Reply 12):
Don't count DFW out on this. Aside from immense hub feed, there is quite a sizeable Indo-Pak community here.

DFW-DEL is nearing the range of the 77W, while it might theoretically be able to fly directly, the question is, can it fly profitably?

There is a lot of fuel burned solely carrying the dead weight of the fuel needed for the flight.

S75752 · Fri May 13, 2016 10:23 pm

I think DFW and LAX can be ruled out due to range, leaving ORD, JFK, or PHL. ORD is already under control by AI, and eventually that'll be strengthened by UA.

The biggest question is who their partner in India will be. They absolutely have to have a partner for connections within India this time, or it simply will not work and they will get burned off the route by lack of interest yet again.

LAXdude1023 · Fri May 13, 2016 10:59 pm

Quoting s75752 (Reply 19):
I think DFW and LAX can be ruled out due to range, leaving ORD, JFK, or PHL. ORD is already under control by AI, and eventually that'll be strengthened by UA.

How is DFW ruled out due to range?

usflyer msp · Fri May 13, 2016 11:07 pm

I think this article is bs but if AA did restart India service it would probably be from PHL. It has decent business ties with India (pharmaceuticals). a decent Indian-origin population base in PA and South Jersey and maybe even pull from MD and DE, excellent domestic feed from small/medium sized cities where there is little competition, and the local PHL O/D has minimal ME3 competition (QR only) which should help with the overall yields...

phlwok · Fri May 13, 2016 11:10 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 20):
How is DFW ruled out due to range?

It might not be by the physical capabilities of the planes, but it may make more sense to send them from JFK, ORD or PHL, all of which are closer to India than DFW, so you have a few hours less of fuel, staff time, etc. each direction, which would add up. It also depends where they expect to source passengers from - if most would have to backtrack to DFW, that would be another strike against it versus a more northern cornerstone hub.

NYC-air · Fri May 13, 2016 11:22 pm

I agree about PHL. It also helps A LOT that the ME3 don't serve EWR - the other option for people in south/central New Jersey. I'd bet the current UA flight has a decent number of pax who actually live closer to or equidistant with PHL

LAXdude1023 · Fri May 13, 2016 11:39 pm

Quoting phlwok (Reply 22):
It might not be by the physical capabilities of the planes, but it may make more sense to send them from JFK, ORD or PHL, all of which are closer to India than DFW, so you have a few hours less of fuel, staff time, etc. each direction, which would add up. It also depends where they expect to source passengers from - if most would have to backtrack to DFW, that would be another strike against it versus a more northern cornerstone hub.

I agree PHL makes the most sense simply because of geography, the large Indian population in NJ, and the lack of overwhelming presence of the ME3.

But if AA were thinking about launching India from DFW, distance wouldn't be the reason for not doing it. DFW-India is a very large local market, its just well covered by the ME3 there.

I would argue that DFW-DEL makes more sense than ORD or JFK because of AI.

HPRamper · Fri May 13, 2016 11:43 pm

Quoting NYC-air (Reply 23):
I agree about PHL. It also helps A LOT that the ME3 don't serve EWR - the other option for people in south/central New Jersey. I'd bet the current UA flight has a decent number of pax who actually live closer to or equidistant with PHL

Doesn't QR serve PHL itself?

atal17 · Sat May 14, 2016 12:23 am

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 25):

Doesn't QR serve PHL itself?

Yes, they do, but their PHL flights do not connect to any Indian destinations. So they're not really visible in the PHL-India market.

rta · Sat May 14, 2016 12:28 am

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 24):
I would argue that DFW-DEL makes more sense than ORD or JFK because of AI.

I think AA could still pull it off Chicago because they'd have a lot of feed, which is not something that AI really has. I'd like to see it from Dallas but that would be a very long flight, similar in length to DFW-HKG.

GSPSPOT · Sat May 14, 2016 12:33 am

Quoting rta (Reply 27):
I'd like to see it from Dallas but that would be a very long flight, similar in length to DFW-HKG.

DFW-HKG seems to be doing well, so why not DFW-DEL? Perhaps with a 787 of one version or the other.

a380787 · Sat May 14, 2016 12:37 am

Quoting rta (Reply 27):

You do know AI and UA are in the same alliance, so DEL-ORD can leverage UA's feed, even if its in the non-codeshare interline form. There were whispers about BLR-SFO nonstop but I feel that's more vanity than reality.

I think we're reading too much into the tea leaves here. It would take a major corporate strategy shift for them to take on India again considering how they got burnt the last time around. QR+EY+BA remains AA's easy solution to serve India.

DL seems very invested in their DL KL 9W AMS scissor hub solution for now. It just needs more destinations than DEL+BOM.

ty97 · Sat May 14, 2016 12:40 am

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 10):
AI also deeply discounted their ORD-DEL routes which pushed AA out of the market.

This is why I don't see ORD getting the flight *IF* AA resume service to India (I lived in Chicago for most of the time AA ran the flight and used it several times, but the AI flight just kills yields now). It could only be JFK (I live in NYC) now if AA believes there is ample O&D to capture because AA's JFK hub is not that robust (though they do traffic some LGA-JFK connections for international. Sounds like hell to me, but they do it). I'd bet on one of AA's bigger non-ORD hubs *IF* this happens.

Wingtips56 · Sat May 14, 2016 12:44 am

A part of AA's problem before was having an Indian partner for feed at that end, but at least one carrier failed or was absorbed. (Sahara?) And weren't they looking at partnering with Kingfisher for feed too, until that went horribly south. So who is left in India to be a partner?

a380787 · Sat May 14, 2016 12:56 am

Quoting Wingtips56 (Reply 31):

Kingfisher was oneworld for a short while then it self imploded. OTOH, there are lots of smaller LCC startups that AA can partner with outside the alliance, like Indigo or even Vistara. or follow DL/GOL's model of 75% traffic terminating at GRU with 25% fed beyond. If the math on JFK ORD DFW - DEL BOM doesn't work out for the first 3/4 of the route, it's hard to expect a partner to close the gap.

FWIW UA actually prefers 9W over AI, which really is a major vote of no confidence for their alliance partner.

RTW00 · Sat May 14, 2016 2:25 am

It depends on the arrival time at DEL.

There are several LLC connections all over India from DEL. The passengers have to clear immigration and customs at DEL prior to transfer to domestic connection. UA had good connections with AI prior to it's entry into Star Aliiance- though to few major airports due to timings

[Edited 2016-05-13 19:29:35]

VX321 · Sat May 14, 2016 2:47 am

I'm glad to hear this! I really do hope to see AA back in India. I'd guess that JFK or PHL would be the two best options. PHL because it's a fortress hub for AA and has no India service and can be great for connections. JFK,on the other hand has the O&D and some connection,but also has competition from AI and more flights from the ME3 + TK and SV. As for codesharing within India, AA could partner with SpiceJet or Indigo or even GoAir. Vistara is partly owned by SQ and I think they may lean towards *Alliance carriers(exception being AI). While I would love to see an LAX-India flight, I think it's just too small a market to be served nonstop and the same goes for DFW. It's a small market that is not close to a large Indian diaspora,so who would connect through?

TWA772LR · Sat May 14, 2016 3:01 am

Just spit balling here, what about LAX-DEL?

phlwok · Sat May 14, 2016 3:03 am

Quoting atal17 (Reply 26):

Yes, they do, but their PHL flights do not connect to any Indian destinations. So they're not really visible in the PHL-India market.

The connection times are excessively long, but plenty do it. Many of my colleagues with OneWorld status indeed do PHL-DOH-India and just enjoy the lounges or do a day room in a hotel in Doha. Most have also had way worse experiences going via LHR, dislike LH coach, etc. But yes, with some retiming, QR could likely pick up more PHL-India traffic.

Ytraveller · Sat May 14, 2016 3:22 am

Quoting atal17 (Reply 26):
Yes, they do, but their PHL flights do not connect to any Indian destinations. So they're not really visible in the PHL-India market.

That's odd, so what traffic is QR aiming at with this flight?

a380787 · Sat May 14, 2016 4:23 am

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 35):

That might actually work. Never thought of it that way but I totally see your point.

Of course, LAX-DEL pretty much needs 77L to have good performance, so that's a consideration on whether 77W with payload penalties will make the numbers work, to say nothing of the oremium heavy config that AA has for 77W.

It can MARGINALLY be done by 787-9.

747megatop · Sat May 14, 2016 5:31 am

Quoting RTW00 (Reply 3):
What will be the US port? ORD, PHL, LAX? Can they do it from DFW?

you can safely rule out LAX and PHX. Most likely it would be ORD if at all they do decide to start it. DFW can't be ruled out but
unlikely because it is too far down South compared to ORD...but how knows, AA might not want to compete with AI's ORD-DEL service.
But overall, aren't there too many one stop options already including a few non stops?

Spiderguy252 · Sat May 14, 2016 7:01 am

Surprised that there are upwards of 30 expectant replies to a source such as the Times of India.

This route is not happening, folks. The ToI is always taken with a bucket of salt nearby, and AA and DL hardly have the guile for the Indian market in any case.

usdcaguy · Sat May 14, 2016 2:33 pm

I would bet that ORD gets it. AA has been trying to grow Chicago, and it's in a good location to start such a long journey. However, I do agree with previous comments about how connecting domestically is far less desirable than flying on one of the ME3. If you're starting your trip in Houston, for example, you would not be able to immediately access a business class seat from the very beginning and that can add to fatigue. I'm not sure what the answer to that is for the US3, but perhaps by looking at markets that feed the flight and then deploying the newest, most comfortable equipment on the connecting flights, AA could get close to offering a "nice" product.

S75752 · Sat May 14, 2016 3:34 pm

Quoting rta (Reply 27):
which is not something that AI really has.

UA, at 3/4 of their US destinations.

Quoting GSPSPOT (Reply 28):

DFW-HKG seems to be doing well, so why not DFW-DEL?

DEL is not HKG. AA also has CX as a well established partner in HKG, at the moment they have nobody in DEL.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 24):

But if AA were thinking about launching India from DFW, distance wouldn't be the reason for not doing it. DFW-India is a very large local market, its just well covered by the ME3 there.

It may be large, but if you're going to be doing something that distance you had better be absolutely certain of it. You're not going to be getting much connecting traffic through DFW, which you would absolutely need.

In terms of places that already have India service;
JFK/EWR all are positioned for good East Coast connections, in addition to the brute force of NYC/NJ population. PHL could make sense.
SFO is positioned for LAX-surrounding traffic, and as far in as LAS or PHX. Additionally, it has the advantage of the massive Silicon Valley India interest to boost yields.
ORD is positioned well for central US connections to India. DFW-DEL only has about a small mileage savings from DFW-ORD-DEL, less than 100 miles difference.

Regardless of which AA chooses, the biggest question will be who their partner in DEL is.

uberflieger · Sat May 14, 2016 11:32 pm

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 39):
you can safely rule out LAX

Actually, that would be my top pick
- only AA hub that doesn't overfly ME3 territory on the way to India (geographical advantage)
- large number of wealthy Indians (Angelinos & Delhi), who can afford to pay a premium for shortest flying time
- excellent DFW/AUS feed, with its large Indian/Pakistani expat population with AAdvantage membership
- American's need to pump the maximum number of passengers through LAX

[Edited 2016-05-14 16:54:46]

globalcabotage · Sun May 15, 2016 12:16 am

Take this how you will as it comes from my DFW bus pilot neighbor. AA is going to close the ORD 767 International pilot base and open a 787 international pilot base. The first 789 will fly ORD-BOM and eventually be on an AKL-LAX-ORD-BOM-ORD-NRT-ORD-LAX-AKL rotation for the first 6 aircraft.

Also, AA expects to get HND-LAX/DFW and JL will fly HND-ORD/JFK. SFO means nothing to OneWorld, but ORD/JFK do and they can't afford to let Star own those "key" markets.

uberflieger · Sun May 15, 2016 1:44 am

Quoting globalcabotage (Reply 44):
AA is going to close the ORD 767 International pilot base and open a 787 international pilot base

Doesn't American already have a Chicago base? NRT/PEK/PVG are 788?

DFWEagle · Sun May 15, 2016 5:38 am

Quoting uberflieger (Reply 43):
Actually, that would be my top pick
- only AA hub that doesn't overfly ME3 territory on the way to India (geographical advantage)
- large number of wealthy Indians (Angelinos & Delhi), who can afford to pay a premium for shortest flying time
- excellent DFW/AUS feed, with its large Indian/Pakistani expat population with AAdvantage membership
- American's need to pump the maximum number of passengers through LAX

If AA did resume service to India, I agree that LAX-DEL would make most sense, operated with 787-9 equipment. AA would be the only non-stop option between LAX and India, and the majority of other one-stop options via the Middle East or Europe are circuitous, being 4-5 hours longer than a potential nonstop. Therefore, the effect of the ME3 competition is reduced and AA should be able to attract the higher yield traffic.

True, the flight would be long, but still shorter than DFW-HKG and over 400 miles shorter than UAs SFO-SIN so it is feasible on a 789, especially with the polar routing.

If AA did a small scale codeshare deal with Jet Airways, they could offer good connections to the other principal cities in India, namely Mumbai, Chennai, Bangalore, Kolkata and Hyderabad. On the US side, they have good connectivity to most cities west of the Rockies. I would expect a schedule like this:

AAxxx LAX 1225 DEL 1725
AAxxx DEL 0110 LAX 0620

This fits into AA’s connecting banks at LAX and feeds into 9W’s banks to the above mentioned Indian cities with minimum connecting time in both directions.

That said, sadly I don't see India being a priority to the new AA at this time.

scotron11 · Sun May 15, 2016 6:15 am

Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 46):
f AA did resume service to India, I agree that LAX-DEL would make most sense, operated with 787-9 equipment

When does AA get their 359s? Easy peasy with that aircraft........was mentioned earlier upthread their relationship with QR and EY,,,,AA have an even closer relationship with BA!

N1120A · Sun May 15, 2016 12:17 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 38):
It can MARGINALLY be done by 787-9.

If SFO-SIN can be MARGINALLY done by a 789, then LAX-DEL would be far less marginal.

a380787 · Sun May 15, 2016 12:58 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 48):

need to factor in the small detour around the Himalayas for any LAX-DEL routing. Another diff is that the UA 789 likely has fewer seats than the future AA edition, largely owing to less J more Y.

I'm guessing ESAD diff is more like 200mi instead of the 400+ suggested by the great circle distance. But yes, your statement is true in the absolute sense.

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