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Skisandy
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Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Fri May 13, 2016 10:06 pm

Every time there is a little front with a few showers along the East Coast - the
"Traffic management program" (or whatever it's called) goes into effect and
all flights are delayed by 2 or 3 hours.... this is all routine! We are not talking
serious storms, just a routine front with some showers.

Now what about all who adore "frequency" and must have a flight every hour?

Not just a flight every hour, but an hourly Delta, hourly AA, hourly UA, hourly JetBlue.
Sometimes two per hour. Not just along the coast, but to ATL, DFW, MIA, DEN etc.

This overburdens air traffic control on a good day, and on a bad day ( and these are
frequent) the delays are maddening.

This could all easily be avoided, if - like in the good old days - 767's,
DC10's etc..... now of course B787s, A330s etc. would be used on many routes,
with twice the number of passengers and half the number of flights?

What is so great about having a choice between 2.00pm, 2.30pm, 3.00pm, 3.45pm, 4.30 pm
departures ---- but actually departing at 6.00pm?

I say: Schedule half as many flights... and OK, I'll wait half an hour longer and take the 3.00pm flight
(the 2.30pm doesn't exist) - and actually depart at 3.00pm.

I don't buy the argument that this is what the traveler wants and must have ( We want delays,
and I must sit on the runway for 2 hours, or I'm not getting my money's worth? Are we that crazy?)
- therefore the airlines must do this to get and keep customers.

And then airlines always fret about fuel costs. And what about having double the number of pilots,
half of the time they are sitting on some runway, with pay, as doors are closed, and engines are running.

I don't get it.
 
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DolphinAir747
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Fri May 13, 2016 10:10 pm

Yup, I completely agree.
 
kdonohue
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Fri May 13, 2016 10:18 pm

Skisandy, you make a good point. I think the travelling comes to expect what you give them. For a whole lot of reasons larger aircraft could be used on many routes. The Japanese would take out the galleys on some 747s and operate with 500+ seats.
 
SpaceshipDC10
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Fri May 13, 2016 10:23 pm

Quoting Skisandy (Thread starter):
What is so great about having a choice between 2.00pm, 2.30pm, 3.00pm, 3.45pm, 4.30 pm
departures ---- but actually departing at 6.00pm?

First you get the feeling that you can choose the best option available for you. You will not have to wait hours before your next connection to XYZ. It's more convenient for you, in theory. Only in theory because reality is never far away and you end up with situations like you explained. How long more choice is actually more choice and more convenient? Since customers have probably never been as price sensitive, irrational and stressed as today, airlines have to satisfy the needs otherwise they risk loosing ground and money.
 
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jambrain
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Fri May 13, 2016 11:00 pm

Quoting Skisandy (Thread starter):
I say: Schedule half as many flights
Quoting SpaceshipDC10 (Reply 3):
Since customers have probably never been as price sensitive

Why don't ATC apply a congestion charge per flight until a widebody flight is significantly cheaper per seat and thus average flight size would rise!

Also you could invest the charge into next-gen air traffic control! (Or even real high-speed rail by which I don't mean 85 mph AMTRAK)

http://www.gao.gov/assets/300/299902.pdf
Jambrain
 
AADC10
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Fri May 13, 2016 11:23 pm

Among business passengers, frequency is second only to price in selecting an airline. Sure, you can never get there but the schedule sure looks good.

On the other side of the coin, airlines are not penalized for clogging the airspace with small aircraft. Landing fees are by weight, and for the few slot restricted airports in the USA, they are doled out for free. A way to limit excessive frequency is by flattening landing fees so that all aircraft pay similar fees and conducting slot auctions, so the prime slots become more valuable and are less likely to be wasted on small aircraft.

At a more general level, subsidies for air travel could be cut, so airlines could pay a larger share of runway, ATC, and security costs, so they would be less likely to squander resources. Perhaps overall subsidies per passenger could be lowered to the level of Amtrak.
 
sirloin
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Fri May 13, 2016 11:24 pm

To the OP: there's an easy solution: book a seat on the flight scheduled to leave 2 hours before you want to leave. Problem solved.  

In all seriousness, I agree with you, but as much as you might not want to believe it, it's true: pax want frequency, even to the point of flights leaving only 30 minutes apart. I'd love one flight on an A320 instead of 2 RJs or a 767 instead of 3 E-Jets in an hour, but I think that people who think like that are in a minority.

Also, I'd bet you good money that the traveling public doesn't realize that their own thirst for excessive frequency is precisely what is causing the delays.
 
airzona11
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Fri May 13, 2016 11:33 pm

This is all just a hypothetical conversation contrary to real world market factors. But here is my take.

A big part of the equation that you are leaving out is return on investment for their planes.

The only airline (in the US) that does not maximize utilization is Allegiant and they are flying old, cheap, amortized planes.

It is expensive to have a plane sitting by not flying (way more expensive for pricier widebodies). It is also expensive to dedicate wide-bodies on short flights. Only in Japan are there consistent, sub 2 hour wide body flights.

The next part is flexibility, sure you can fly CHI - NYC 10 times a day with 737s and on paper reduce this to 5 flights with a 767. But those same 737s are flying CHI - smaller markets that cant sustain multiple let alone 1 767 a day.

Airlines maximize profitability but Wall Street (love or hate) keeps a focus on a high load factor. So not only are airlines funneling as many people a day on as many flights with their planes, they are doing it consistent record load factors.

The bigger question you should be asking - why are we using radar based ATC and not GPS and location based technology to negate a large amount of weather related delays. Location and Logistics software, not 767 and A330s are the solution to the congestion problem.
 
DiamondFlyer
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 12:03 am

Quoting jambrain (Reply 4):
Why don't ATC apply a congestion charge per flight until a widebody flight is significantly cheaper per seat and thus average flight size would rise!

Because the US ATC system doesn't work on that type of fee system. It's paid for by fuel tax.

-DiamondFlyer
From my cold, dead hands
 
a380787
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 1:13 am

Some frequency is useful, but beyond a certain a point is ridiculous. There are airlines serving airport pairs at 20+ daily, just one airline. It's cool for wide open airports to do whatever they want, but at horrible clogging like NYC+PHL, I've always advocated for sensible solutions.

Airlines, unfortunately, are more concerned about hoarding scarce resources. And a lot of the clogging is fanned out to the regionals, thus relieving the parent airline from disappointing operating metrics.

DCA is a major offender in this regard - precious slots at the nation's capital, and the tarmac looks like Embraer testing airfield.
 
Wingtips56
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 1:49 am

The only real way consolidating the frequencies with larger airplanes would make a difference is to withdraw the abandoned slots. Without that, someone else will just come in and use the slot, so there is no improvement in congestion. But good luck trying to get that proposal through!

Frequency is a huge part of marketing.... Carrier X has a flight in your market every 3 hours. Carrier Y has one every 30-45 minutes. If you are a business traveler, a lobbyist or someone testifying/deposing in frequent situations where meeting/hearing/court times may be moved up or back, or rescheduled, you're going to stick with Carrier Y.

And I spoke with our regional sales manager way back when, with him saying it was so much harder to market the one flight a day as it was to market three. And that was a mid-con market, not short-haul. The early flight was good for O/D traffic and shorter range feed at the hub, whereas the mid-day fed the international connections. When the mid-day flight was dropped, all of the international feed was lost to competitors because no one (including the once-in-lifetime vacationers) wanted to get up with the chickens only to sit at the hub for six hours. Eventually the morning flight was dropped, resulting in a complete withdrawal from the market, handing all the regulars over to a competitor.
Worked for WestAir, Apollo Airways, Desert Pacific, Western, AirCal and American Airlines (Retired). Flight Memory: 181 airports, 92 airlines, 78 a/c types, 403 routes, 58 countries (by air), 6 continents. 1,119,414 passenger miles.

Home airport : CEC
 
32andBelow
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 3:50 am

HEY! Leave my 20 SEA-ANC daily flights out of this.
 
32andBelow
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 3:51 am

Quoting sirloin (Reply 6):
it's true: pax want frequency, even to the point of flights leaving only 30 minutes apart.

This is a difference. Wingtip departures can be very convenient to an airline. It gives you the ability to cancel one durring IRROPS and low bookings or make season cancels on one of the two.
 
a380787
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 4:14 am

Quoting 32andBelow (Reply 12):

With airlines posting domestic LF of low 80s in off peak and nearly 90% in peak times, the more likely scenario is a whole day of cascading agony.

Not to mention when IRROPS hit, airlines tend of scapegoat the regionals first. That's actually one of the key reasons I pick mainline over the very comfortable E-jet family.
 
Mir
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 4:14 am

Quoting Skisandy (Thread starter):
Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Because most of the time they're not all two hours late. Simple as that.

-Mir
7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
 
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jambrain
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 10:56 am

Quoting DiamondFlyer (Reply 8):
Because the US ATC system doesn't work on that type of fee system. It's paid for by fuel tax.

And that is a law of nature that can't change ? Why ?

It's broken (every time I've flown through ORD I been delayed to the point of regularly missing connections / meetings) and it hurts productivity for every business whose staff fly. Here in the UK efficient air travel is blocked by NIMBYs (e.g. LHR runway 3 & 4) but I just don't see who would block solving this (except possibly the regional jet jockeys).

Quoting airzona11 (Reply 7):
A big part of the equation that you are leaving out is return on investment for their planes.

An A320 or a 737-8 doesn't has a higher lease rate per seat (or capital cost) then that 100 seat regional. There is a reason the market forecast for regional is only $100 B compared to $2,770 B for narrow-bodies 2015-34. (CASM including lease is better!)

Quoting airzona11 (Reply 7):
The next part is flexibility, sure you can fly CHI - NYC 10 times a day with 737s and on paper reduce this to 5 flights with a 767. But those same 737s are flying CHI - smaller markets that cant sustain multiple let alone 1 767 a day.

That's a bit debatable, proper flight planning should allow an A321 / 767 / MOM sized plane to be effectively utilised. It's a matter of having the correct mix, reducing any city pair to a max of hourly frequency (with code-shares) would work.

It only need 10% more seats per short-haul flight to solve most of the issues, a change in fee structure to penalise regionals should be able to achieve that!.
Jambrain
 
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Faro
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 1:06 pm

Frequency is essentially a marketing tool, to get the customer to click on their credit card credentials promptly on your website instead of on another.

The reality of those clicked reservations on the physical, execution side is exactly as Skisandy describes. The system is sales driven.


Faro

[Edited 2016-05-14 06:11:32]
The chalice not my son
 
twaconnie
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 1:08 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 9):

I agree, some 40 years ago the New York Port Authority predicated that LGA would be 25% wide body operations,to handle the increase in passenger's
 
mjoelnir
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 1:21 pm

Frequency is a religion adhered to by passengers and airlines alike, not open to realities like congestion or constant delays. The passenger looks at frequency when he books, you would have to show him average delays beside the flight to change his mind. It is a game of chicken, the first airline reducing frequency loses. Reducing frequency to reduce congestion does not help an airline as that would not result in preferential treatment and less delays.
 
seat38a
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 2:04 pm

Quoting jambrain (Reply 15):
And that is a law of nature that can't change ? Why ?

Do things just happen miraculously without political discourse and entities with vested interest in the status quo relenting for the good of the majority on your side of the pond?
 
Planeflyer
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 2:24 pm

Have you ever traveled in place that does not have frequencies and a delay turns into an overnight stay so that you miss your morning meeting in the next city?

when you do you'll get it.

This week I finished a meeting in San Jose early, just wen to AP early, made a no charge change to an earlier flight and had dinner with a customer in San Diego.

LUV frequency, LUV rules!
 
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par13del
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 2:28 pm

Well if there are 5 flights per hour or AA, DL UA, etc one can assume that there are X numbers of pax travelling on those a/c, each paying the fare that the individual carrier charges.
Now if you eliminate AA and DL from the route, that would allow UA to use a single widebody a/c to accommodate all the pax, problem solved.
See its not about frequency it is about competition, if you eliminate competition you would allow the surviving carrier to meet the demand by using a larger a/c, this will eliminate congestion, collect the same amount in taxes since the larger heavier a/c will pay roughly the same amount in taxes.
Now the elephant in the room is the un-intended consequence, which is that the fares will have to be regulated since UA will now be free to charge whatever they want to since the pax will have no choice.

Even if the best option is to institute a limited number of slots, there is a fine line to be trod between what is good for congestion versus what creates a monopolistic environment and hurts consumers.
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 2:32 pm

I also wonder about the holy cow called "frequency". Frequency is nice if you go to work or back home - the large Swiss cities are all connected with trains leaving in 30 or even 15 minutes intervals, but well, we're basically one big city with an alpine recreation area included.

Reading the book "The Time Trap" by Alec Mackenzie (which I recommend to anybody, even for putting more joy into the limited amount of leisure we have), I stumbled upon some words that are aviation-related: Many managers complain about air travel. But, Mackenzie responds, travel is a heaven - because you don't have nagging phone calls, no colleagues dropping by to have chitchat and disturb your work... the same can be said for (reasonably comfy) airport lounges.

I would rather have a connections which leave plenty of time to do something productive. Order a coffee or three or seven, and get some work done.


David
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
mjoelnir
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 2:51 pm

Quoting Planeflyer (Reply 20):
Have you ever traveled in place that does not have frequencies and a delay turns into an overnight stay so that you miss your morning meeting in the next city?

when you do you'll get it.

This week I finished a meeting in San Jose early, just wen to AP early, made a no charge change to an earlier flight and had dinner with a customer in San Diego.

LUV frequency, LUV rules!

There is a wide range between on and fifty flights a day. Have you ever lost your twice a week flight to the next destination because your every half hour flight was three hours late because of congestion?
 
mjoelnir
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 3:03 pm

Quoting par13del (Reply 21):
Well if there are 5 flights per hour or AA, DL UA, etc one can assume that there are X numbers of pax travelling on those a/c, each paying the fare that the individual carrier charges.
Now if you eliminate AA and DL from the route, that would allow UA to use a single widebody a/c to accommodate all the pax, problem solved.
See its not about frequency it is about competition, if you eliminate competition you would allow the surviving carrier to meet the demand by using a larger a/c, this will eliminate congestion, collect the same amount in taxes since the larger heavier a/c will pay roughly the same amount in taxes.
Now the elephant in the room is the un-intended consequence, which is that the fares will have to be regulated since UA will now be free to charge whatever they want to since the pax will have no choice.

Even if the best option is to institute a limited number of slots, there is a fine line to be trod between what is good for congestion versus what creates a monopolistic environment and hurts consumers.

It is not simple about competition. You do not need to eliminate one or two competitors. Nobody needs five flights per hour, everybody halving the number of flights using bigger plains would ease congestion, still allow frequency and keep competition. If on an overcrowded route slots were allocated, the size of airplanes would increase to keep market share.
An overcrowded airspace producing congestion helps nobody.
If you need more money for a better ACT let the airlines bid for the number of flights and use the money to build a better ACT system.
 
DiamondFlyer
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 3:17 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 24):
It is not simple about competition. You do not need to eliminate one or two competitors. Nobody needs five flights per hour, everybody halving the number of flights using bigger plains would ease congestion, still allow frequency and keep competition. If on an overcrowded route slots were allocated, the size of airplanes would increase to keep market share.

So what are you proposing? Having the government pay for bigger airplanes for airlines, or what? Because they simply don't have planes laying around to do what you propose.

-DiamondFlyer
From my cold, dead hands
 
DCA-ROCguy
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 3:29 pm

You asked a question of the A.net group, so here's my answer, for what it's worth.

New York city's three major airports are all slotted above the all-weather capacity of their runways and airspace.

In general, it's better to let the market solve business's problems. But airports are a public resource, and New York City's airports are being operated in a manner that harms the whole system. No airline is going to voluntarily reduce capacity to major business destinations, that would be unilateral disarmament in the above-mentioned game of chicken.

Thus, I would argue that the FAA should impose a slot reduction of whatever percentage will get LGA, EWR, and JFK to all-weather uncongested operation. DCA is slotted this way, and it works very well.

Let's say the FAA cuts each of the three airports' slots 15 percent. Each airline would lose a proportional number of slots, except small carriers who would lose fewer. A limit of 10 dailies maximum to any market would be imposed, and strict limits on cuts to small markets--none could be cut to fewer than three dailies--would be imposed.

Drastic? Yes. What NYC and the entire system needs? Yes. Will it be done? Of course not.

Jim
Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
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Polot
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 3:31 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 24):
If you need more money for a better ACT let the airlines bid for the number of flights and use the money to build a better ACT system.

That favors the airline with more money, and encourages airlines to artificially restrict capacity in order to drive up prices and get a better ROI. Pay to play is a terrible idea. What happens if one airline wins all or a huge majority of the flights on the route? They have no incentive to maximize market share and increase aircraft size- additional competition is locked out.

Restricting the number of flights on a route only increases the aircraft size to a point- then because of the inability of airlines to freely come in and compete they will decide to maximize the profitability of those flights and send cheaper traffic via alternate routes.The reason US airlines care about marketshare is because the domestic market is deregulated so anyone can come in and steal your passengers. If you artificially restrain the amount of competition on a route who cares about market share, just reap in the profits. Airlines are businesses trying to make the most money possible, not charities trying to fly the most people as cheaply as possible.

[Edited 2016-05-14 08:43:41]
 
mjoelnir
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 3:58 pm

Quoting DiamondFlyer (Reply 25):
So what are you proposing? Having the government pay for bigger airplanes for airlines, or what? Because they simply don't have planes laying around to do what you propose.

-DiamondFlyer

No let the airlines pay for limited resources owned by the Government or the people. Using bigger airplanes up to 737-9/A321 will lead to a reduction in cost against the payments , and you still have enough flights and competition.
 
DCA-ROCguy
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 4:03 pm

Quoting DiamondFlyer (Reply 25):
So what are you proposing? Having the government pay for bigger airplanes for airlines, or what? Because they simply don't have planes laying around to do what you propose.-DiamondFlyer

Airports are a public resource and should be run for the benefit of the public. That means imposing a suitable slot reduction on all three NYC airports to get traffic in line with runway capacity and airspace capacity. Where the airlines get bigger planes form quite frankly isn't the FAA's problem.

Quoting Polot (Reply 27):
Restricting the number of flights on a route only increases the aircraft size to a point- then because of the inability of airlines to freely come in and compete they will decide to maximize the profitability of those flights and send cheaper traffic via alternate routes.The reason US airlines care about marketshare is because the domestic market is deregulated so anyone can come in and steal your passengers. If you artificially restrain the amount of competition on a route who cares about market share, just reap in the profits. Airlines are businesses trying to make the most money possible, not charities trying to fly the most people as cheaply as possible.

NYC has limited runway capacity and airspace. This capacity is a public resource that should be managed for the benefit of the public first, airlines and Wall Street (with their unreasonable profit expectations) second. That means slots should be cut to match traffic to capacity, and smaller markets protected by law from being cut. Businessmen going to ORD or DCA can deal with having a few less frequencies to choose from. There's no law that says the airlines and Wall Street have to like it.

Jim
Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
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Polot
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 4:11 pm

Quoting DCA-ROCguy" class="quote" target="_blank">DCA-ROCguy (Reply 29):
NYC has limited runway capacity and airspace. This capacity is a public resource that should be managed for the benefit of the public first, airlines and Wall Street (with their unreasonable profit expectations) second. That means slots should be cut to match traffic to capacity, and smaller markets protected by law from being cut. Businessmen going to ORD or DCA can deal with having a few less frequencies to choose from. There's no law that says the airlines and Wall Street have to like it.

I don't have a problem with slot restricted airports cutting slots equally across the board, and creating special slots dedicated to small markets to protect them. That forces airlines to optimize their operations, and profits, with the slots they have and increases aircraft size.


The issue is when you start determining slots on a route level i.e. LGA can have 5 flights from DCA, 5 from BOS, 3 MIA, etc and then requiring airlines to pay individually for each route right. That doesn't encourage bumping up aircraft size, because, for example, if you are rich and able to outbid everyone for 3 out of the 5 DCA-LGA you only every have to worry about 2 other competing flights and thus you have no incentive to maximize aircraft size and market share. Your incentive is to maximize yield (especially since you paid for the rights) which can mean restricting aircraft size vs demand.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 4:12 pm

Quoting DCA-ROCguy (Reply 29):
Airports are a public resource and should be run for the benefit of the public. That means imposing a suitable slot reduction on all three NYC airports to get traffic in line with runway capacity and airspace capacity. Where the airlines get bigger planes form quite frankly isn't the FAA's problem.

Aren't you ignoring the fact that, although the weather is certainly bad sometimes in NYC, it is good more often than not? On a perfectly sunny day, there's really no harm in the current schedule. And although weather forecasting is not perfect, 18-24 hours out it's generally clear whether there will be delay-inducing weather. Given that framework, why is a solution that removes slots every day the right one?

[Edited 2016-05-14 09:23:48]
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
mjoelnir
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 4:12 pm

Quoting Polot (Reply 27):
That favors the airline with more money, and encourages airlines to artificially restrict capacity in order to drive up prices and get a better ROI. Pay to play is a terrible idea. What happens if one airline wins all or a huge majority of the flights on the route? They have no incentive to maximize market share and increase aircraft size- additional competition is locked out.

Restricting the number of flights on a route only increases the aircraft size to a point- then because of the inability of airlines to freely come in and compete they will decide to maximize the profitability of those flights and send cheaper traffic via alternate routes.The reason US airlines care about marketshare is because the domestic market is deregulated so anyone can come in and steal your passengers. If you artificially restrain the amount of competition on a route who cares about market share, just reap in the profits. Airlines are businesses trying to make the most money possible, not charities trying to fly the most people as cheaply as possible.

Congestion is artificial and only curable by restricting numbers. Slot restriction is used on some airports. Nowhere has competition been the answer for congestion. The only way to reduce congestion is reducing traffic nothing artificial about it. Congestion shows that certain routes, airports and so on can not cope.
You have the same on other transport systems. Paying for bridges or tunnels or simple for using the interstate for buses. You ease congestion on motorways with having certain lanes only for cars that have passengers more than only the driver.
Putting a price on certain routes would lead to the usage of bigger airplanes.
 
delimit
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 4:15 pm

Quoting Mir (Reply 14):

Because most of the time they're not all two hours late. Simple as that.

This.

Most of you are arguing from a flawed premise.
 
DCA-ROCguy
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 4:20 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 31):
Aren't you ignoring the fact that, although the weather is certainly bad sometimes in NYC, it is good more often than not. On a perfectly sunny day, there's really no harm in the current schedule. And although weather forecasting is not perfect, 18-24 hours out it's generally clear whether there will be delay-inducing weather. Given that framework, why is a solution that removes slots every day the right one?

It seems to me that reliability is more important than maximizing good-weather capacity. NYC has enough bad weather to make congestion an issue. And that congestion affects the entire country by ripple-effect and missed connections. DCA is slotted below good-weather capacity, so it works in all weather. I book flights out of DCA confidently, knowing that this high-demand, close-in airport isn't any likelier to have delays than ROC is.

Jim
Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
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Polot
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 4:24 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 32):
Congestion is artificial

How on Earth is congestion artificial? Air congestion is a natural result of too many planes occupying not enough air/terminal/runway space. Slots are an artificial means to try and control it.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 32):
. Nowhere has competition been the answer for congestion.

You are too focused on congestion and not focused on the other side of the coin- travel price.

You are basically suggesting the US go back to regulation. But that is going to drive ticket prices up up up, which is not what the government wants. Having quasi-regulation where some domestic routes are regulated and some are not will not drive up aircraft sizes. Airlines will maximize yield on the regulated routes (by using aircraft smaller than demand in order to drive up ticket prices), especially if they have to pay for it versus making a case for it, while shuffling the cheaper passengers to alternate, cheaper, connecting routes that are not regulated. You will just be shifting the congestion from some routes to others.

There is a reason, for example, that when new international route rights come up the DOT holds a competition for the routes and doesn't just hold an auction where the airline who pays the most wins.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 4:26 pm

Quoting DCA-ROCguy" class="quote" target="_blank">DCA-ROCguy (Reply 34):
It seems to me that reliability is more important than maximizing good-weather capacity. NYC has enough bad weather to make congestion an issue. And that congestion affects the entire country by ripple-effect and missed connections.

We may have to agree to disagree here. LGA has a lot of flights with light loads, which means that a different solution might be appropriate than at DCA.

When I go to NYC, I often book a refundable ticket on the last flight out of LGA, knowing that I can easily get a seat on something earlier if I finish my business sooner. I can't remember the last time I wanted an earlier flight and couldn't get one, and it's rare to have a seatmate. I can't believe that BNA is unique in this regard.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
delimit
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 4:26 pm

Quoting DCA-ROCguy (Reply 34):
It seems to me that reliability is more important than maximizing good-weather capacity. NYC has enough bad weather to make congestion an issue.

Using what metric? LGA has issues. JFK doesn't.

[Edited 2016-05-14 09:27:29]
 
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tlecam
Posts: 1498
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RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 4:27 pm

It's a good question that I've wondered about from time to time myself. Several folks have posted things that I never thought about, like aircraft utilization.

A few anecdotes:

- I live in NYC and fly out of LGA weekly and JFK often. From LGA, most frequent destinations are BOS, CMH, ORD, DEN and then ATL/MSP/DTW if I have to connect. From JFK, most frequent destinations are SFO and international. Mix of mainline and RJ.

- Believe it or not, most of my flights take off and land on time. Evenings are the most likely problem spots - compounded by the parabolic impact of weather delays from around the system and congestion.

- I do think we're seeing some relief for this problem by reducing the number of 50 seat RJ's. Even just going to the 75 seaters has helped, I think.

- I do think that, especially with hubs that had a rolling schedule reverting to banks, there is more opportunity to fly larger planes between hubs, including wide bodies, and I'd like to see more of that. This includes mid-con. We are already seeing United start to look at this for Transcon with the 772's. (350+ seats in Y on a domestic flight!!). Maybe this is the start of a trend? DL is also flying some wide bodies between JFK and LAX (and SFO, although that's not a hub). There are others occasionally as well, I know. But we could see more.

- I think that DCA and LGA will be challenging, because of the amount of O&D, premium traffic and their size ' desire ability. My guess is that those traits wil make it harder to pivot away from frequency to larger planes.
BOS-LGA-JFK | A:319/20/21, 332/3, 346 || B:717, 735, 737, 738, 739, 752, 753, 762, 763, 764, 787, 772, 744 || MD80, MD90
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9391
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 4:50 pm

Quoting Polot (Reply 35):
How on Earth is congestion artificial? Air congestion is a natural result of too many planes occupying not enough air/terminal/runway space. Slots are an artificial means to try and control it.

As there is nothing natural about an airplane, congestion is produced by an artificial construct, especially with using to many of this artificial product at the same time.

How on earth can traffic congestion be natural?

Quoting Polot (Reply 35):
You are too focused on congestion and not focused on the other side of the coin- travel price.

You are basically suggesting the US go back to regulation. But that is going to drive ticket prices up up up, which is not what the government wants. Having quasi-regulation where some domestic routes are regulated and some are not will not drive up aircraft sizes. Airlines will maximize yield on the regulated routes (by using aircraft smaller than demand in order to drive up ticket prices), especially if they have to pay for it versus making a case for it, while shuffling the cheaper passengers to alternate, cheaper, connecting routes that are not regulated. You will just be shifting the congestion from some routes to others.

There is a reason, for example, that when new international route rights come up the DOT holds a competition for the routes and doesn't just hold an auction where the airline who pays the most wins.

If there are restricted numbers of flights on highly congested routes, there is no way an airline can use a too small airplane, if airline x uses a 50 seater airline, y will use a 150 seater and will take the bulk of the traffic.
You confuse regulating the industry with fixed prices with regulating congestion by limiting frequency.
 
liftsifter
Posts: 495
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2008 5:25 am

RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 4:55 pm

Quoting sirloin (Reply 6):
767 instead of 3 E-Jets in an hour, but I think that people who think like that are in a minority.

I would much rather be in a full-767 than an E-jet or other RJ.
A300 A310 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A342 A343 A346 A380 B736 B737 B738 B744 B763 B77L B77E B77W B788 E190
 
DiamondFlyer
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Joined: Wed Oct 29, 2008 11:50 pm

RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 5:02 pm

Quoting DCA-ROCguy (Reply 29):
Airports are a public resource and should be run for the benefit of the public. That means imposing a suitable slot reduction on all three NYC airports to get traffic in line with runway capacity and airspace capacity. Where the airlines get bigger planes form quite frankly isn't the FAA's problem.

So build the public resources to support the amount of demand placed on them by the public... What a novel idea that is.

-DiamondFlyer
From my cold, dead hands
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9391
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 5:31 pm

Quoting DiamondFlyer (Reply 41):
So build the public resources to support the amount of demand placed on them by the public... What a novel idea that is.

Use public money so airlines can earn more money, typical. What is wrong in a capitalistic world that companies pay for unreasonable use of public facilities? Use they could easily reduce by adjusting to by using bigger frames. You guys always get a shock when the talk is about the government investing in railways for example. But of course it is always different when public money should be spend on your industry.
 
ckfred
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Joined: Wed Apr 25, 2001 12:50 pm

RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 8:39 pm

First, even back in the days of regulation, you often had frequency and large aircraft. ORD-LGA had hourly service from 6am to 9pm, on AA, UA, and TW. AA and UA had DC-10s during the early and late rushes, while TW had L-1011s.

The BOS-LGA-DCA shuttle has always been hourly.

Does frequency matter today? Yes. When AA went through a schedule retrenching in the mid 2000s, one of the routes that last frequency was ORD-PIT. My wife used to take a 6:30pm departure out of PIT. If she was done early, she would get on the stand-by list for an earlier flight.

Then, AA got rid of the 6:30 departure, but the only upgauging was from an Embrear 140 to an Embrear 145. So, that meant having to get up insanely early, so that she could get out of the office at 1:30 for the 90 minute drive to PIT, to make a 4:30pm flight.

It's one thing to cut a schedule from 18 departures to 14, while throwing in a couple of widebodies to pick up the slack. But, cutting 8 flights down to 5, even with larger aircraft, does make it difficult for the business traveler.
 
Skisandy
Topic Author
Posts: 50
Joined: Sat Apr 19, 2008 2:47 am

RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sat May 14, 2016 10:09 pm

I am very much enjoying the thorough discussion of this issue - fantastic!
Especially since most of you wholeheartedly agree with me - even better!

Some here say that they hardly experience any delays, but I do, every time I fly
into or out of a Washington area airport. Last time my flight from Dulles to Miami
was delayed for 2 hours, because of a general traffic hold due to showers. I booked Dulles
on purpose, instead of DCA, but the long arm of air traffic control reached me there also.

I am a travel agent in NM, and always try to book my customers via DFW, DEN, ORD, ATL
(when traveling to Europe), anything but the North East corridor. But sometimes I have to... and then there is trouble...
.. and then I write a post here.......like yesterday.

One comment was: "DCA = "Embraer Testing Airfield" --- I liked that!

OK - I read two very interesting and extremely useful solutions, and want to summarize them here:

1. The landing fees at airports should be a fixed fee per plane/ per flight - that's it. Not per weight,
not per passenger. A fee per plane/ flight is actually quite fair - as it is the same
work for the control tower, radar, ground control etc.. whether he plane is large or small.

Yes, the separation between planes may be larger, with "heavies", but otherwise it's
the same cost, regardless of plane size.

2. No reason not to have an across-the-board slot reduction at these over burdened airports.
Across the board, fair for all. The result would be great: Less congestion, less noise,
less risk for accidents, less delays even! Since - as many here mention - the airports are public
property and not the private property of airlines ... this could easily be accomplished..... it
just takes some guts .... which of course is lacking with most officials.

I love aviation, and am fascinated not only by planes, but airports, the entire aviation system,
it works beyond all expectation - considering the complexity of the entire operation.

I am just frustrated that we somehow slid into this system with thousands of tiny planes flying
around like bees - when we could have a more comfortable and civilized travel experience.
 
Planeflyer
Posts: 1527
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 3:49 am

RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sun May 15, 2016 1:30 am

Does anyone have reliable data on the avg delay at these over burdened airport such as DCA, JFK or LGA?

My experience over a few thousand flights would have me guess that on avg I"m 15-20 minutes late. I could be way off which is why I asked the question.It seems we are making a lot out of a small issue.
 
PPVRA
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Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:48 am

RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sun May 15, 2016 1:43 am

Quoting DiamondFlyer (Reply 8):
Because the US ATC system doesn't work on that type of fee system. It's paid for by fuel tax.

The main trouble causing airports have landing fees, which can be calculated by a user fee based on congestion charges. This alone would increase the average aircraft size flying out of places like ORD and reduce frequency.

I don't know why more pilots don't support this. It would decrease regional airline flying and beef up mainline flying.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
DiamondFlyer
Posts: 3403
Joined: Wed Oct 29, 2008 11:50 pm

RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sun May 15, 2016 4:48 am

Quoting PPVRA (Reply 46):
I don't know why more pilots don't support this. It would decrease regional airline flying and beef up mainline flying.

Because it would likely mean an end to GA in this country, something that we do very well here. Airport landing fees would kill the vast small airport structure that this country has built up and keeps, in the public interest.

Quoting Skisandy (Reply 44):
2. No reason not to have an across-the-board slot reduction at these over burdened airports.
Across the board, fair for all. The result would be great: Less congestion, less noise,
less risk for accidents, less delays even! Since - as many here mention - the airports are public
property and not the private property of airlines ... this could easily be accomplished..... it
just takes some guts .... which of course is lacking with most officials.

Yes, government regulation of business, exactly what will make things better at DCA and LGA. I'm sure that it.

-DiamondFlyer
From my cold, dead hands
 
Mir
Posts: 19491
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 3:55 am

RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sun May 15, 2016 5:36 am

Quoting DiamondFlyer (Reply 47):
Because it would likely mean an end to GA in this country, something that we do very well here. Airport landing fees would kill the vast small airport structure that this country has built up and keeps, in the public interest.

Adjusting landing fees at the congested commercial airports wouldn't have much of an impact on GA traffic.

-Mir
7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
 
Planeflyer
Posts: 1527
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 3:49 am

RE: Why Is Frequency Great When All Are 2 Hours Late?

Sun May 15, 2016 1:25 pm

[quote=DiamondFlyer,reply=47]Yes, government regulation of business, exactly what will make things better at DCA and LGA. I'm sure that it.




Exactly! Well,said.

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