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enilria
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OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 11:37 am

FAQ

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

WHERE ARE SEATS SHOWN?
They aren't. This only shows departures.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. I remove the schedule adds if I see them and show a year over year (YOY) comparison if I notice them.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard. This causes flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

4B ATL-MSL JUN 0>1.7 JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7
4B BNA-MSL JUN 0>1.7 JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7
4B CNY-DEN JUN 1.0>1.7 JUL 1.0>1.7
4B CNY-SLC JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3
4B DEN-MCK JUN 0>1.7 JUL 0>1.7
4B DEN-VEL JUN 0>1.7 JUL 0>1.7
4B SLC-VEL JUN 0>1.7 JUL 0>1.7

4O MIA-CUN SEP 2>1.7 OCT 2>1.7

8I MIA-AUA JUN 0.5>0

9K ACK-BOS OCT 12>11

AA CLT-SMF DEC 1.0>0.5 JAN 1.0>0.3
AA MIA-BWI OCT 3>2
AA MIA-LAS OCT 4>3
AA MIA-PNS OCT 3>2
AA MIA-STL OCT 1.8>1.0
AA MIA-TLH OCT 4>3
AA MIA-TPA OCT 6>5
AA PHX-GEG OCT 2>1.2 NOV 2>1.0 DEC 2>1.0 JAN 2>1.0
AA PHX-LAX OCT 10>9 NOV 10>9 DEC 10>9 JAN 10>9

AC FLL-YUL NOV 3>2 DEC 4>3
AC FLL-AC LAS-YUL DEC 1.2>2

What is this?
**AI EWR-LHR AUG 0>0.2 SEP 0>0.5 OCT 0>0.4

AM SAT-MEX JUL 2>1.9

AS PDX-FAT NOV 1.8>1.0 DEC 2>1.0 JAN 2>1.0

B6 BDL-SJU OCT 1.5>1.0 NOV 1.5>1.1 DEC 1.8>1.7
B6 BOS-STI NOV 0.8>0.4
B6 EWR-SJU AUG 2>1.8 SEP 1.6>1.2 OCT 1.4>1.0
B6 JFK-BGI OCT 1.9>1.8 NOV 3>1.9
B6 JFK-BQN NOV 1.4>1.1 DEC 1.9>1.5
B6 JFK-GND NOV 0.4>0.6 DEC 0.4>0.6
B6 JFK-PAP AUG 2>3
B6 MCO-CUN SEP 2.0>1.8 OCT 1.9>1.8
B6 MCO-PSE DEC 2>1.8

CA HNL-PEK AUG 0.6>0.4

DL ATL-CTG NOV 0.4>0.3 DEC 0.4>0.5
DL ATL-FCO JAN 1.0>0.7
DL ATL-GUA SEP 1.7>1.1 OCT 1.7>1.2 NOV 1.9>1.6
DL ATL-KIN SEP 0.9>0.7 OCT 0.9>0.7 DEC 0.9>1.0
DL ATL-MHH NOV 0.3>0.5
DL ATL-PAP SEP 1.0>0.9 OCT 1.0>0.9
DL ATL-PUJ AUG 4>3
DL ATL-PVR NOV 0.6>0.5
DL CVG-LAS OCT 1.0>0.7 NOV 0.9>0.7
DL DTW-DFW JAN 6>5
DL DTW-GRU DEC 0.4>0.3
DL DTW-MQT JAN 1.0>1.9
DL HNL-NRT DEC 1.6>1.7
DL JFK-BOG JAN 0.1>0
DL JFK-GUA JAN 0.1>0
DL JFK-LIR NOV 0.4>0.2
DL JFK-PBI OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2 JAN 1.9>3
DL JFK-RSW NOV 0>2 DEC 1.0>3 JAN 2>3
DL JFK-SJU SEP 5>4 OCT 5>4
DL LAX-CUN NOV 1.5>1.1 DEC 1.7>1.5
DL LAX-DTW SEP 5>6 OCT 5>6 NOV 5>6
DL LAX-MSP NOV 6>7 DEC 7>8 JAN 6>7
Rumors are true
**DL LAX-NRT NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0
DL LAX-TUS OCT 2>3
DL LGA-ACK SEP 0.1>0.0
DL SEA-PHX JAN 4>3
DL SLC-ATL NOV 7>8 JAN 8>9
DL SLC-CUN OCT 0.5>0.3

*F9 ATL-MCO JUL 0>0.9 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>0.8
F9 DEN-CLE JUL 1.0>1.9 AUG 1.0>3
F9 DEN-CVG JUL 1.0>1.9 AUG 1.0>2
F9 IAD-ORD AUG 0.4>0.2
F9 MCI-ORD AUG 0.4>0.2
*F9 MCO-SFO JUL 0>0.9 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>0.8
F9 MSP-ORD AUG 0.6>0.3
F9 ORD-PDX JUL 0.6>0.1
F9 ORD-SEA AUG 0.2>1.0

HA HNL-KOA SEP 19>18
HA HNL-LIH SEP 17>18

JJ JFK-GIG SEP 0.7>0.5 OCT 0.7>0.4 NOV 0.7>0.4 DEC 0.7>0.4 JAN 0.7>0.4
JJ MIA-GIG SEP 0.7>0.4 OCT 0.7>0.4 NOV 0.7>0.4 DEC 0.7>0.5 JAN 0.7>0.4

NZ HNL-AKL NOV 0.6>0.4

OS MIA-VIE NOV 0.7>0.6

P1 LUK-MDW JUN 0.0>0.7 AUG 0>0.7 SEP 0>0.7 OCT 0>0.7 JAN 0>0.7

UA DEN-ABQ OCT 4>5
UA DEN-CID OCT 4>5
UA DEN-FSD OCT 5>4
UA DEN-GJT OCT 5>6
UA DEN-MOT OCT 3>2 NOV 3>2.0 DEC 3>1.9 JAN 3>2
UA DEN-MTJ OCT 3>4
UA DEN-RNO OCT 3>4
UA DEN-SAF OCT 2>4
UA DEN-SLC OCT 7>6
UA DEN-STL OCT 5>6
UA DEN-TUS OCT 5>4
UA DEN-YVR OCT 3>1.4
UA DEN-YWG OCT 1.8>1.2
UA DEN-UA EWR-ALB OCT 5>6
UA EWR-BOG JAN 1.1>1.3
UA EWR-BTV OCT 5>6
UA EWR-BWI OCT 5>4
UA EWR-CLE SEP 6>7 OCT 5>7
UA EWR-GSO OCT 4>5
UA EWR-MCI OCT 4>3
UA EWR-MKE OCT 3>4
UA EWR-MSN OCT 1.1>1.9
UA EWR-OMA OCT 3>1.6
UA EWR-PHX OCT 4>3
UA EWR-PWM OCT 6>7
UA EWR-RIC OCT 5>6
UA EWR-ROC OCT 6>5
UA IAD-CAE OCT 3>4
UA IAD-CHO OCT 3>4
UA IAD-GSO OCT 3>4
UA IAD-PVD OCT 3>4
UA IAD-PWM OCT 3>4
UA IAD-SCE OCT 4>3
UA IAH-AUS OCT 11>10 NOV 10>9
UA IAH-BRO OCT 5>4
UA IAH-BWI OCT 3>1.8
UA IAH-DEN OCT 12>11
UA IAH-ELP OCT 6>5 NOV 6>5
UA IAH-FLL OCT 5>4
UA IAH-GPT OCT 4>3 NOV 4>3 JAN 4>3
UA IAH-GSP OCT 1.1>1.8
UA IAH-HRL OCT 4>3 NOV 4>3
UA IAH-LAS OCT 7>6 NOV 7>6
UA IAH-LBB OCT 4>3
UA IAH-LFT OCT 7>6 NOV 7>6 DEC 7>5 JAN 7>6
UA IAH-MCO OCT 7>6
UA IAH-MKE OCT 3>1.9 NOV 3>1.8
UA IAH-MTJ JAN 0.1>1.0
UA IAH-OAX SEP 0.5>0.2 OCT 0.5>0.3
UA IAH-PNS OCT 5>4 NOV 5>4
UA IAH-RIC OCT 1.7>1.1
UA IAH-SAV OCT 1.8>1.1
UA LAX-DEN OCT 9>10
UA LAX-IAH JUL 12>13 OCT 13>12
UA ORD-ALB OCT 5>4
UA ORD-ATW OCT 4>5
UA ORD-AVL OCT 1.9>4
UA ORD-BDL OCT 5>4
UA ORD-DCA OCT 14>13
UA ORD-DEN OCT 10>11
UA ORD-GRB OCT 4>5
UA ORD-GRR OCT 5>6
UA ORD-LAX OCT 13>14
UA ORD-LIT OCT 3>4
UA ORD-MBS OCT 4>3
UA ORD-MCI OCT 7>6
UA ORD-MIA OCT 1.8>1.1
UA ORD-MKE OCT 10>8
UA ORD-MTJ JAN 0.1>1.0
UA ORD-PHL OCT 7>6
UA ORD-PHX OCT 3>4
UA ORD-SCE OCT 2.0>3
UA ORD-SDF OCT 5>6
UA ORD-TVC OCT 3>4
UA SFO-MMH JAN 0>1.0
UA SFO-ORD OCT 16>15
UA SFO-SUN JAN 0.1>1.0

*Y4 AUS-GDL AUG 0>0.4 SEP 0>0.4 OCT 0>0.4 NOV 0>0.4 DEC 0>0.4 JAN 0>0.5
Y4 LAS-GDL SEP 1.2>1.0
*Y4 LAX-DGO JUL 0>0.2 AUG 0>0.3 SEP 0>0.3 OCT 0>0.3 NOV 0>0.3 DEC 0>0.3 JAN 0>0.3
*Y4 SEA-GDL JUL 0>0.4 AUG 0>0.4 SEP 0>0.4 OCT 0>0.4 NOV 0>0.4 DEC 0>0.4 JAN 0>0.5

*ZK HON-MSP JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0

[Edited 2016-05-15 04:38:45]
 
rockyracoon
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 12:08 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL JFK-BOG JAN 0.1>0

All but gone on the BOG-JFK route? Interesting to see that, not too far back the daily 73G had been upgraded to 752.
Airports I've flown from: CVG PIT MWO PHL PHX ORD DCA IAD MIA TPA MCO FLL ATL DTW DFW SJC LAX DEN SLC LAS HNL LIH OGG YVR MUC ICN NRT PVG SHA SZX MNL PPS CRK BKK DMK KBV EOH MDE CLO CTG SMR BOG ACD MEX CUN MID AUA SAL RTB
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 12:27 pm

Quoting rockyracoon (Reply 1):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL JFK-BOG JAN 0.1>0

All but gone on the BOG-JFK route? Interesting to see that, not too far back the daily 73G had been upgraded to 752.

I assume it is just a seasonal cut, but I haven't researched.
 
Q
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 12:35 pm

I saw read in somewhere in ANet forum recently. You mentioned what is this?

AI EWR-LHR

The Air India introduces non stop from AMD (Ahmedabad,India) to LHR then EWR on Boeing 787.

Q

[Edited 2016-05-15 05:36:19]
 
avi8
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 12:40 pm

A bit of Caribbean and Central America cuts from DL; matching capacity with demand.

I cannot even count how many times JFK-GUA has been shifting from seasonal to non-seasonal to not even operating at all. ATL-GUA also shifts frequently from daily service to up to three daily flights.
avi8

Medschool student
 
CO777-200ER
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 1:15 pm

Looks like UA will be running a mainline 737 from ORD-MKE. I can't remember the last time one of those flights ran as mainline.
 
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AVLAirlineFreq
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 1:21 pm

Thanks as always for doing this, eniliria.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA DEN-UA EWR-ALB OCT 5>6

A typo, or something hiding in there?
 
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jfklganyc
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 1:25 pm

Notice a lot of cuts to SJU

The bottom is really falling out on Puerto Rico sadly.
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 2:28 pm

Quoting Q (Reply 3):
I saw read in somewhere in ANet forum recently. You mentioned what is this?

AI EWR-LHR

The Air India introduces non stop from AMD (Ahmedabad,India) to LHR then EWR on Boeing 787.

Yes, I found that thread later.

Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 6):
Thanks as always for doing this, eniliria.

 
Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 6):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA DEN-UA EWR-ALB OCT 5>6

A typo, or something hiding in there?

You know, that's really irritating. So, here's what happened there. a.net kept making the airport codes in the title lowercase. I tried to make them uppercase like 4 times using edit and when I use edit it screws up the rest of the post for who knows what reason. It should be:

UA DEN-YWG OCT 1.8>1.2
UA DEN-YYZ OCT 3>1.9
UA EWR-ALB OCT 5>6
UA EWR-BOG JAN 1.1>1.3
 
Rdh3e
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 2:57 pm

Last week:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA DEN-GEG OCT 2>3 NOV 2.0>3 DEC 1.9>3 JAN 2>3

This week:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA PHX-GEG OCT 2>1.2 NOV 2>1.0 DEC 2>1.0 JAN 2>1.0

Very interesting.
 
Mikey711MN
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 3:54 pm

Quoting CO777-200ER (Reply 5):
Looks like UA will be running a mainline 737 from ORD-MKE. I can't remember the last time one of those flights ran as mainline.

Wow...neither can I! That'll certainly be one of the shortest mainline routes in the system! I wonder if it's to rotate in a 737 for the IAH-MKE routing, which itself had a fairly significant frequency reduction...

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA IAH-MKE OCT 3>1.9 NOV 3>1.8
UA ORD-MKE OCT 10>8


-Mike
I plan on living forever. So far, so good...
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 4:11 pm

Quoting Rdh3e (Reply 9):
Last week:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
UA DEN-GEG OCT 2>3 NOV 2.0>3 DEC 1.9>3 JAN 2>3

This week:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AA PHX-GEG OCT 2>1.2 NOV 2>1.0 DEC 2>1.0 JAN 2>1.0

Very interesting.

Major market share shift. PHX is a pretty weak hub and the geography is pretty poor for GEG.
 
incitatus
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 4:14 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
JJ JFK-GIG SEP 0.7>0.5 OCT 0.7>0.4 NOV 0.7>0.4 DEC 0.7>0.4 JAN 0.7>0.4
JJ MIA-GIG SEP 0.7>0.4 OCT 0.7>0.4 NOV 0.7>0.4 DEC 0.7>0.5 JAN 0.7>0.4

People keep wondering if airlines are going to announce service reductions after the Olympics. Pretty much every week an airline announces frequency cuts for Brazil - and not just to Rio.
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
dc10lover
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 4:49 pm

I think people from GEG fly to DEN to connect to other cities while GEG to PHX is mainly for their original destination.
Why endure the nightmare and congestion of LAX when BUR, LGB, ONT & SNA is so much easier to fly in and out of. Same with OAK & SJC when it comes to SFO.
 
Rdh3e
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 5:09 pm

Quoting dc10lover (Reply 13):
I think people from GEG fly to DEN to connect to other cities while GEG to PHX is mainly for their original destination.

The market is only about 30% local, so connections are a huge part of the GEG-PHX business case.
 
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OzarkD9S
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 5:29 pm

Quoting Mikey711MN (Reply 10):


Wow...neither can I! That'll certainly be one of the shortest mainline routes in the system! I wonder if it's to rotate in a 737 for the IAH-MKE routing, which itself had a fairly significant frequency reduction...

Could be, or it could be an RON which would be cheaper to park at MKE than ORD.
Finally headed to DORKFEST! Sept 7, STL-LAX-PHX-STL. :cloudnine:
 
DTWLAX
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 5:42 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Rumors are true
**DL LAX-NRT NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0

DL cutting LAX-NRT? One of the legacy NW routes gone!
Does DL fly LAX-HND?
 
alfa164
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 5:44 pm

Quoting DTWLAX (Reply 16):
Does DL fly LAX-HND?

Yes... and I am sure they are hoping to keep it.
I'm going to have a smokin' hot body again!
I have decided to be cremated....
 
pilotfox
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 5:45 pm

Quoting OzarkD9S (Reply 15):
Could be, or it could be an RON which would be cheaper to park at MKE than ORD.

From what I can see it goes ORD-MKE-ORD in the afternoon. It only operates for the last few weeks of October before going back to all RJ.
 
Sightseer
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 5:45 pm

Thanks Enilria!

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DL LAX-NRT NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0

You have to wonder how much longer the NRT "hub" can stick around before it really implodes. Plus LAX-BKK/MNL/SIN all now require multiple connections on DL (AFAICT no partner codeshares are offered on those routings).
 
DTWLAX
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 5:48 pm

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 19):
You have to wonder how much longer the NRT "hub" can stick around before it really implodes.

So apart from SEA, DTW and JFK, where will DL fly to NRT from? ATL? MSP?
 
azjubilee
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 5:52 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Rumors are true
**DL LAX-NRT NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0

I guess they're pretty confident they'll keep LAX-HND. I'm sure this will be one of several NRT flights to be dropped as the day slots are awarded. So much for public benefit...
 
VictorKilo
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 6:17 pm

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 19):
You have to wonder how much longer the NRT "hub" can stick around before it really implodes. Plus LAX-BKK/MNL/SIN all now require multiple connections on DL (AFAICT no partner codeshares are offered on those routings).

Right, but how much market share does DL have on LAX-BKK/MNL/SIN, when there is so much competition on these connections from the likes of JL, NH, KE, OZ, CI, BR, and CX? Obviously not enough to support a LAX-NRT flight that isn't surviving on its own merits.

My guess is that NRT-BKK/SIN/MNL will stay, for now. BKK and SIN will stay 763, and MNL will get downgaged with the 744 retirements, probably to a 77E. NRT-TPE/PVG are on thinner ice and may be cut to further support LAX-PVG and SEA-TPE/PVG.
 
deltaflyertoo
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 6:17 pm

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 21):
I guess they're pretty confident they'll keep LAX-HND. I'm sure this will be one of several NRT flights to be dropped as the day slots are awarded. So much for public benefit...

I just looked up the schedule for March 2017 and indeed HND is now the 11ish am departure on a 777.

I also looked up AA-they too now have a 11ish departure to HND (in addition to NRT) HND/787-8, NRT/777.

Yes I knew the US Big 3 were getting daytime HND access....I didn't realize that indeed they were being uploaded already as buyable flights.
 
incitatus
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 6:20 pm

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 19):
You have to wonder how much longer the NRT "hub" can stick around before it really implodes. Plus LAX-BKK/MNL/SIN all now require multiple connections on DL (AFAICT no partner codeshares are offered on those routings).

What I wonder is if DL cut LAX-NRT because it was doing worse than LAX-HND.... What do you think?
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
ooslc
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 6:39 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
F9 ORD-PDX JUL 0.6>0.1

Dang...they just started this route. July is peak season for PDX! Must be hard to compete with UA, AA, AS, and NK on the same route. And WN per se to MDW.

CLE route may be doing better since there is no competition. We'll have to see what happens to the PHX route starting next month. They have to compete with AS, AA, WN.
    Ironically, I don't work for OO anymore, and I'm not in SLC anymore. PDX based, aviation enthusiast, non-aviation worker.
 
alfa164
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 6:42 pm

Quoting incitatus (Reply 24):
What I wonder is if DL cut LAX-NRT because it was doing worse than LAX-HND.... What do you think?

I doubt it. I think cutting LAX-NRT gives them an excuse to say, "See? We have to keep LAX-HND or we won't have any flights from LAX to Tokyo!".
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Freshside3
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 7:19 pm

Quoting VictorKilo (Reply 22):
NRT-TPE/PVG are on thinner ice and may be cut to further support LAX-PVG and SEA-TPE/PVG.

And DL has some Chinese partner carriers, as well, which they can utilize, and would be consistent with this scenario.
 
WA707atMSP
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 8:03 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*ZK HON-MSP JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0

Another week, another flight cut by Great Lakes.

This means Thief River Falls is the only city ZK serves out of MSP. My guess is TVF will be taken over by Air Choice One by the end of this summer, and ZK will be completely gone from MSP.
 
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Frontier14
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 8:11 pm

Quoting WA707atMSP (Reply 28):

Another week, another flight cut by Great Lakes.

This means Thief River Falls is the only city ZK serves out of MSP. My guess is TVF will be taken over by Air Choice One by the end of this summer, and ZK will be completely gone from MSP.

TVF has already announced that there will be a month or thereabouts hiatus in service to MSP as ZK ends service with the end of their contract.

Boutique Air will take over this EAS service to Thief River Falls presumably in July.

Frontier 14
 
B757capt
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 8:37 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 11):
Quoting Rdh3e (Reply 9):

Wonder if the rumored ORD-GEG service is going to start....
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jacobin777
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 8:40 pm

Quoting CO777-200ER (Reply 5):
Looks like UA will be running a mainline 737 from ORD-MKE. I can't remember the last time one of those flights ran as mainline.

I've flown AA Eagle a number of times (probably 10-15 times the past few years) on the ORD-MKE-ORD route and I'm a bit surprised to see a mainline plane flying on such a short route.
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knope2001
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 8:54 pm

Quoting Frontier14 (Reply 29):
TVF has already announced that there will be a month or thereabouts hiatus in service to MSP as ZK ends service with the end of their contract.

Boutique Air will take over this EAS service to Thief River Falls presumably in July.

Yup - and TVF said they are very willing to have ZK leave (no request to hold them in until Boutique starts). ZK's numbers are so bad they would rather have a gap of service then have more horrible months averaging into their yearly per-passenger subsidy stats.

Quoting CO777-200ER (Reply 5):
Looks like UA will be running a mainline 737 from ORD-MKE. I can't remember the last time one of those flights ran as mainline.
Quoting Mikey711MN (Reply 10):
I wonder if it's to rotate in a 737 for the IAH-MKE routing, which itself had a fairly significant frequency reduction...

They keep cutting MKE-IAH from 3x to 2x, a route which had 4x for years. Anecdotal experience of my own suggests more people driving to O'Hare for frequent, cheaper nonstops versus the long RJ flight.

Quoting pilotfox (Reply 18):
It only operates for the last few weeks of October before going back to all RJ.

Wouldn't be a huge surprise to have it pushed out -- United seems to do incremental updates (every few weeks pushing out the new schedule) in some markets. IIRC mainline on MSN-ORD showed up that way. The change of MKE-EWR from 3x to 4x and MKE-IAH from 3x to 2x seems to be following that path.

After no UA mainline for years (perhaps 2 decades?) it's nice to see MKE with three mainline per day with the new October schedule. Sure with EWR could get something better than an ERJ, but it's a start.
 
Freshside3
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 9:17 pm

Quoting B757capt (Reply 30):
Wonder if the rumored ORD-GEG service is going to start....

It would be good, if it does. Better, and more, options for Europe connections for GEG.
 
Rdh3e
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 9:42 pm

Quoting B757capt (Reply 30):
Wonder if the rumored ORD-GEG service is going to start....

Rumored by who?

Quoting Freshside3 (Reply 33):
It would be good, if it does. Better, and more, options for Europe connections for GEG.

I think most people will go through SEA no matter what since it's available year round.
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 9:56 pm

Quoting DTWLAX (Reply 16):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
Rumors are true
**DL LAX-NRT NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0

DL cutting LAX-NRT? One of the legacy NW routes gone!
Does DL fly LAX-HND?
Quoting DTWLAX (Reply 20):
Quoting Sightseer (Reply 19):
You have to wonder how much longer the NRT "hub" can stick around before it really implodes.

So apart from SEA, DTW and JFK, where will DL fly to NRT from? ATL? MSP?
Quoting alfa164 (Reply 17):
Quoting DTWLAX (Reply 16):
Does DL fly LAX-HND?

Yes... and I am sure they are hoping to keep it.
Quoting azjubilee (Reply 21):
I guess they're pretty confident they'll keep LAX-HND. I'm sure this will be one of several NRT flights to be dropped as the day slots are awarded. So much for public benefit...

To me, this worsens the argument for them to keep it substantially as it shows an award will result in no new service. It also basically guarantees the same thing will happen if DL wins either of their other requests.

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 19):
Thanks Enilria!

 
Quoting VictorKilo (Reply 22):
Right, but how much market share does DL have on LAX-BKK/MNL/SIN,
Quoting Sightseer (Reply 19):
You have to wonder how much longer the NRT "hub" can stick around before it really implodes. Plus LAX-BKK/MNL/SIN all now require multiple connections on DL (AFAICT no partner codeshares are offered on those routings).
Quoting Freshside3 (Reply 27):
And DL has some Chinese partner carriers, as well, which they can utilize, and would be consistent with this scenario.

Agreed, I'm sure DL was a pricing bottom fisher, but was pushing volume. It's also a significant network hole for them as they are trying to become more relevant in LAX. They can go hat in hand to KE and ask for code share. I doubt KE will help them.

Quoting VictorKilo (Reply 22):
NRT-TPE/PVG are on thinner ice and may be cut to further support LAX-PVG and SEA-TPE/PVG.

Those are both alliance hubs. Maybe the partner carriers will fly them with DL code, but they will be flown.

Quoting incitatus (Reply 24):
What I wonder is if DL cut LAX-NRT because it was doing worse than LAX-HND.... What do you think?
Quoting alfa164 (Reply 26):
I doubt it. I think cutting LAX-NRT gives them an excuse to say, "See? We have to keep LAX-HND or we won't have any flights from LAX to Tokyo!".

I think it is highly unlikely HND is doing better than NRT. DL did 35% more local revenue on LAX-NRT in 4Q15 than LAX-HND, plus NRT had connections on both sides. So, this is one of those long term strategic moves where you trade away the better one for the poorer one because you think it will shift in the future. Big dice roll.
 
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 10:08 pm

I'm not 100% positive, but I think MKE lost mainline somewhere in the late 90s or early 2000s after the 737-200s were dumped en masse after 9/11. Throwing a 737 up there is probably a cheap way for them to get utilization out of a plane that would be sitting or lets them RON at a cheaper station.
 
pdx
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 10:51 pm

Quoting DTWLAX (Reply 20):
So apart from SEA, DTW and JFK, where will DL fly to NRT from? ATL? MSP?

SEA, DTW, JFK, AND *PDX*!!
 
Sightseer
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Sun May 15, 2016 11:11 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 35):
It's also a significant network hole for them as they are trying to become more relevant in LAX.

Thats the thing. Almost everything outside the primary cities will now require multiple connections from LAX, since from what I can tell there are currently very few partner codeshares from LAX. So instead of flying LAX-PVG-SIN or LAX-ICN-PUS, DL is only offering routings like LAX-PDX-NRT-SIN or LAX-SEA-ICN-PUS, which seems like a poor method of building customer loyalty in a market where one-stop offerings are plentiful.

The only thing I can figure right now is that DL is so sure NRT yields will tank that they're not even going to bother trying.
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Mon May 16, 2016 12:26 am

Quoting pdx (Reply 37):
AND *PDX*!!

I don't see how PDX makes more sense than LAX for DL.

Quoting pdx (Reply 37):
SEA, DTW, JFK, AND *PDX*!!

MSP unless they win HND authority and move it. They have ATL too.

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 38):
Thats the thing. Almost everything outside the primary cities will now require multiple connections from LAX, since from what I can tell there are currently very few partner codeshares from LAX. So instead of flying LAX-PVG-SIN or LAX-ICN-PUS, DL is only offering routings like LAX-PDX-NRT-SIN or LAX-SEA-ICN-PUS, which seems like a poor method of building customer loyalty in a market where one-stop offerings are plentiful.

I'm sure they are begging at KE's door for an interim solution. I guess there's PVG, but jeez I wouldn't connect through China to anywhere but China.

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 38):
The only thing I can figure right now is that DL is so sure NRT yields will tank that they're not even going to bother trying.

I think the connecting yields are already crappy, but still it fills the plane better than HND will. I posted above that NRT is killing HND on local revenue for DL, although the schedule change may change that. Personally, on a flight that long it hardly matters to me what the schedule is as long as it connects to whatever it is supposed to/needs to.
 
UnitedTristar
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Mon May 16, 2016 12:30 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 39):
I don't see how PDX makes more sense than LAX for DL.

One word...competition...

-m

  
 
commavia
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Mon May 16, 2016 1:02 am

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 21):
I guess they're pretty confident they'll keep LAX-HND.

Confidence well-placed in my opinion. From my perspective, Delta is the favorite to get at least two of its requested three daily daytime HND allocations. I suspect Delta's arguments about being at a disadvantage to AA and United in TYO will ultimately be successful - just as they were when HND access first opened in 2010.

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 19):
You have to wonder how much longer the NRT "hub" can stick around before it really implodes. Plus LAX-BKK/MNL/SIN all now require multiple connections on DL (AFAICT no partner codeshares are offered on those routings).

This has long been precisely Delta's point - any further opening of HND naturally disproportionately hurts NRT-reliant Delta. As has been obvious for years, Delta is at a perpetual disadvantage at NRT up against JAL and ANA, and by extension their U.S. JV partners AA and United.

Quoting VictorKilo (Reply 22):
My guess is that NRT-BKK/SIN/MNL will stay, for now. BKK and SIN will stay 763, and MNL will get downgaged with the 744 retirements, probably to a 77E. NRT-TPE/PVG are on thinner ice and may be cut to further support LAX-PVG and SEA-TPE/PVG.

  

Agree on all counts - in terms of beyond-NRT Asia, I could see BKK, SIN and MNL staying because they cannot be profitably flown nonstop from the U.S. I think TPE and PVG are both on borrowed time - Delta already amply serves PVG nonstop from its three most China-critical U.S. gateways (LAX, SEA and DTW) and I wouldn't be surprised if Delta could make TPE work nonstop from SEA, even up against lower-cost Taiwanese carriers.

Quoting enilria (Reply 39):
I don't see how PDX makes more sense than LAX for DL.

As said, PDX has no competition to Asia so Delta has the market all to itself. That said, I think the clock is ticking on Delta's PDX-NRT flight. Given the continuing decline of the NRT hub, I think one or multiple competitors will smell blood in the water and go after PDX-NRT and if they do, I think Delta will give it up. Given that it is approaching the end of its government-imposed growth restrictions, and has just sealed a codeshare deal with Alaska, I think a daily JAL 787 is a plausible, if not likely, challenger.

Quoting enilria (Reply 39):
I'm sure they are begging at KE's door for an interim solution.

Somehow I doubt that - don't see Delta "begging at [the] door" of any airline.
 
azjubilee
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Mon May 16, 2016 3:13 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 35):
To me, this worsens the argument for them to keep it substantially as it shows an award will result in no new service. It also basically guarantees the same thing will happen if DL wins either of their other requests.

Exactly why the DOT should be weary of the potential that the other 2 would do the same. Again... the whole "public benefit" thing.

Quoting commavia (Reply 41):
Confidence well-placed in my opinion. From my perspective, Delta is the favorite to get at least two of its requested three daily daytime HND allocations. I suspect Delta's arguments about being at a disadvantage to AA and United in TYO will ultimately be successful - just as they were when HND access first opened in 2010.

True... the confidence that the existing 4 authorities will remain status quo is there across the board. It signals however, that by publishing near identical schedules to their NRT flights that NRT is likely on the chopping block. Perhaps not such a good thing when the DOT is still deciding how the day flying will sort out. In the end, I really believe it will boil down to UA, DL or AA gaining one additional slot in addition to the 4 existing remaining status quo. If I was betting, DL will get ATL.

[Edited 2016-05-15 20:41:12]
 
WA707atMSP
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Mon May 16, 2016 9:25 am

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 32):
Quoting Frontier14 (Reply 29):
TVF has already announced that there will be a month or thereabouts hiatus in service to MSP as ZK ends service with the end of their contract.

Boutique Air will take over this EAS service to Thief River Falls presumably in July.

Yup - and TVF said they are very willing to have ZK leave (no request to hold them in until Boutique starts). ZK's numbers are so bad they would rather have a gap of service then have more horrible months averaging into their yearly per-passenger subsidy stats.

Thanks for the updates, Frontier14 and knope2001!

It will be interesting to see if Boutique Air links TVF-MSP to other cities on their system, to bridge aircraft into MSP.

Four years ago, before Great Lakes began imploding, I flew them MSP-HON-PIR-CDR-DEN, to log HON, PIR, and CDR; it was a LOT of fun!

Boutique Air already has the EAS contract for CDR and AIA. It would be nice if Boutique Air got the EAS contract for HON, and began a MSP-HON-CDR-AIA-DEN flight to link MSP and DEN.
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Mon May 16, 2016 11:10 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 41):
As said, PDX has no competition to Asia so Delta has the market all to itself. That said, I think the clock is ticking on Delta's PDX-NRT flight.
Quoting UnitedTristar (Reply 40):
One word...competition...

-m

I get it, but without a slate of connects beyond NRT they are not going to fill a PDX-NRT flight. The market just isn't big enough on local alone. At least in LAX the demand is there. Connecting spokes are more critical to PDX. I get the yield argument, but you need volume too unless they fit a 757 with external tanks.  
Quoting commavia (Reply 41):
This has long been precisely Delta's point - any further opening of HND naturally disproportionately hurts NRT-reliant Delta.

It seemms like it hurts Delta most when Delta operates the flights to HND!

Quoting commavia (Reply 41):
Delta is at a perpetual disadvantage at NRT up against JAL and ANA

As they should be with a hub in somebody else's country. Imagine Delta's whining if EK was allowed a hub at LAX or JFK. If they aren't going to use these NRT hub authorities I wish they would be awarded to another carrier like B6 or a new long haul ULCC.

Quoting commavia (Reply 41):
Quoting enilria (Reply 39):
I'm sure they are begging at KE's door for an interim solution.

Somehow I doubt that - don't see Delta "begging at [the] door" of any airline.

SE Asia is definitely the weakest part of DL's global network, arguably worse than MidEast which at least can be served well via Europe. PVG is a crappy replacement hub. They should swallow their pride and deal with KE. DL has lost here and they started with the Northwest Orient network which was pretty dominant at one point. They were shrinking NRT even before the HND slots. The reason AA/UA are winning is because they did something DL wouldn't, they allowed a JV with two foreign carriers where it was not just a tool to control the other carriers. Maybe the reverse. Conversely, the Pacific is probably UA's best achievement in the last decade as DL has won in the rest of the globe (MidEast excepted).
 
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dabpit
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Mon May 16, 2016 1:17 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*F9 ATL-MCO JUL 0>0.9 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>0.8

MCO-ATL starts July 5th

MCO_ATL F9 1551 0510-0642 A319
ATL-MCO F9 1560 1005-1138 A319

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*F9 MCO-SFO JUL 0>0.9 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>0.8

MCO-SFO starts July 5th

MCO-SFO F9 1741 2205-0055 (+1) A319
SFO-MCO F9 1740 2320-0744 (+1) A319
Carpe Diem
 
Thenoflyzone
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Mon May 16, 2016 2:16 pm

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AC FLL-YUL NOV 3>2 DEC 4>3
AC FLL-AC LAS-YUL DEC 1.2>2

Some stuff got screwed up here as well i guess......
us Air Traffic Controllers have a good record, we haven't left one up there yet !!
 
a380787
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Mon May 16, 2016 2:57 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 44):
Conversely, the Pacific is probably UA's best achievement in the last decade as DL has won in the rest of the globe (MidEast excepted).

DL is just a tiny bit ahead of UA in terms of Atlantic, while UA is a tiny bit ahead in LatAm (AA massively dwarfs both here). For all practical purposes, DL and UA are "virtual ties" at 2 out of 3 long haul spaces.

Atlantic ASM, full year 2015

DL 49,117,993,000 (+4.1%)
UA 47,188,858,000

Latin ASM, full year 2015

UA 23,817,899,000 (+3.8%)
DL 22,944,067,000
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Mon May 16, 2016 3:34 pm

Quoting dabpit (Reply 45):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*F9 ATL-MCO JUL 0>0.9 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>0.8

MCO-ATL starts July 5th

MCO_ATL F9 1551 0510-0642 A319
ATL-MCO F9 1560 1005-1138 A319
Quoting dabpit (Reply 45):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
*F9 MCO-SFO JUL 0>0.9 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>0.8

MCO-SFO starts July 5th

MCO-SFO F9 1741 2205-0055 (+1) A319
SFO-MCO F9 1740 2320-0744 (+1) A319

Strange there are no comments on the new routes. I thought they already flew MCO-ATL. NK just said that the ULCC model made little sense in flights over ~1500 miles and then F9 adds this whopper. Must be nearly 2400 miles!

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 46):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
AC FLL-YUL NOV 3>2 DEC 4>3
AC FLL-AC LAS-YUL DEC 1.2>2

Some stuff got screwed up here as well i guess......

Grrrrr...A.NET!!!!!!!

AC FLL-YUL NOV 3>2 DEC 4>3
AC FLL-YYZ NOV 3>2 DEC 4>3
AC LAS-YUL DEC 1.2>2

Quoting a380787 (Reply 47):
DL is just a tiny bit ahead of UA in terms of Atlantic, while UA is a tiny bit ahead in LatAm (AA massively dwarfs both here). For all practical purposes, DL and UA are "virtual ties" at 2 out of 3 long haul spaces.

You make good arguments, but in the case of Europe I feel confident in saying that DL's margin is FAR higher than UA's. I'm not sure there is public data on that, but just from looking at the non-public data I'd say DL is crushing them.

I will give you that DL is not doing well in deep South Latin, but they are about to lock down Mexico and they are already quite formidable to the Caribbean. They are fairly weak in Central and South America compared to UA/AA, but they also have the Brazil investment cooking for the future. AA seems to me to be shrinking in MIA to Latin America and FLL seems to be taking a bigger and bigger bite. UA is beset by Houston oil problems which hurts Houston as a gateway to Latin America.
 
alfa164
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RE: OAG Changes 5/20/2016:DL Laxnrt Gone,+AI Ewrlhr

Mon May 16, 2016 4:03 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 44):
It seemms like it hurts Delta most when Delta operates the flights to HND!
Quoting enilria (Reply 44):
If they aren't going to use these NRT hub authorities I wish they would be awarded to another carrier like B6 or a new long haul ULCC.

Am I the only one here who thinks DL is being premature in eliminating their NRT hub? I know all the arguments about how valuable HND is for point-to-point traffic, but NRT remains a well-positioned location for connections to SE Asia, as well as offering space for TYO passengers and connecting passengers to the Oceania.

Combined with the continuing postponement of 787 deliveries - if they ever happen at all - eliminating NRT seema short-sighted, at best. And flowing through PVG...if DL plans to put its own passengers on CZ flights, they need to do some serious efforts with that airline's product. The pampered PM and DM flyers will be in for a rude shock if they arrive on DL then continue on flying in a CZ plane...

[Edited 2016-05-16 09:22:00]
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