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TC957
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After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 12:46 pm

The build-up of 787's in the BA fleet has clearly given the thumbs-up in BA management to launch new routes.
So where else should BA look to for direct flights ?
Including some destinations served previously and dropped, my hit list would be :
KIX
SJU
MBJ
MSY
STL
IND
 
seansasLCY
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 1:00 pm

I think MBJ would be a LGW route if it did return.

They returned to ICN and KUL. There have been long standing rumours that Jakarta would return as a tag on one of the SIN flights.
 
LHRFlyer
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 1:58 pm

I think it's noteworthy that all of the most recent announcements have been westbound routes (London Gatwick to JFK, San Jose Costa Rica, Lima and London Heathrow to San Jose California and Santiago). I think more eastbound routes are unlikely unless there is support from a joint-venture partner.

With BA reinstating LGW-JFK there does seem a genuine willingness to compete head on with Norwegian and not repeat the mistakes of the past in underestimating new competition.

I would not be surprised to see more routes at LGW to go head to head with Norwegian. I think it's inevitable there will be more North American routes from LHR.
 
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STT757
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 2:02 pm

BNA, LAS, PDX, HNL, MSY.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
seansasLCY
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 2:04 pm

Quoting LHRFlyer (Reply 2):
I think it's noteworthy that all of the most recent announcements have been westbound routes (London Gatwick to JFK, San Jose Costa Rica, Lima and London Heathrow to San Jose California and Santiago).

Don't forget the relaunch of LHR-ICN, KUL and the beginning of Chengdu.
 
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9MMPD
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 2:10 pm

LHR - PER non stop with a BA 787 would be a dream!
 
TC957
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 2:26 pm

Quoting 9MMPD (Reply 5):
LHR - PER non stop with a BA 787 would be a dream!

Can't see that happening with the ME3 so strong in places like PER.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 3):
LAS,

HUH ? You do know BA have been flying to LAS for years now ! Or do you mean somewhere else ?
 
finnishway
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 2:38 pm

Quoting LHRFlyer (Reply 2):
I think it's inevitable there will be more North American routes from LHR.

And less routes to somewhere else. Slots are limited at LHR as we all know.
 
EUflyer
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 2:40 pm

I could see the following:

PTY

BOG

MNL
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 3:42 pm

Quoting EUflyer (Reply 8):
PTY

Not a OneWorld hub and covered as-is by Iberia over MAD. Also, fairly saturated for a relatively small market (3-4M people)

Quoting EUflyer (Reply 8):
BOG

More likely, but also covered by IB

Quoting EUflyer (Reply 8):
MNL

Too low-yielding and saturated with 1-stop competition from the ME3 as well as PR already on the route.

My best guess would be a smaller, but medium sized U.S. market like PIT, CMH, MSY, IND or BNA. Austin has done extremely well for them, and so a 3-4x flight to one of the aforementioned markets on a 788 or 789 is definitely doable.
 
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dabpit
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 3:54 pm

SJU, MSY, PDX, PIT, STL, and BNA are all good options
Carpe Diem
 
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757usairways
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 4:07 pm

CLT would be a safe bet.
 
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Polot
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 4:18 pm

Quoting 757usairways (Reply 11):
CLT would be a safe bet.

I see BA leaving that to AA and using their limited 787 (most likely plane to open up all these new North American destinations) and slots elsewhere.
 
Andy33
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 4:42 pm

I wouldn't be surprised to see more BA longhaul routes launched. However there won't be many more starting this year or next. That's because this year will see delivery of 8 more 789s and an A388, while the last 4 long-haul 763s will leave the mainline fleet, along with 3 more 744s. That's 9 planes in, 7 planes out, and the newly announced SCL route requires 2 planes.

If they can use the A388 to replace two of something else by swapping frequency for high capacity, or squeeze one more plane out by not needing to carry a spare 763 (only 3 scheduled out of the 4), then there will be another route, or an increased frequency, otherwise we'll almost certainly have to wait until 2018, because 2017 will see only one new long haul plane - a 788 due in September.

Of course Willie Walsh's talked about second hand A388s and 77Ws, if they can be sourced, would change this entirely, and I'm sure BA do have a wish list of routes they would like to introduce. LHR slots aren't really a problem to BA, it is all the other airlines which serve LHR that have the problem.
 
finnishway
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 4:51 pm

Quoting Andy33 (Reply 13):
LHR slots aren't really a problem to BA, it is all the other airlines which serve LHR that have the problem.

I remember reading that it is not possible to "reserve" slots at LHR. So if airline has a slot it must use it and can't keep it in storage. So if this is the case, BA has to use all of its slots already. So if they want to use slots for a new route, they must cancel another route or cut frequencies to some destinations.

[Edited 2016-05-18 09:52:20]
 
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Ytraveller
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 5:14 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 3):
LAS

BA has been flying to LAS since 2009, today they fly 11x weekly from LHR with the 744. They even tried competing with VS on LGW-LAS from 2012 to this April, on top of the LHR service.
 
Lexy
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 5:27 pm

BNA is a slam dunk in my biased opinion.
Nashville, Tennessee KBNA
 
Andy33
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 5:33 pm

Quoting finnishway (Reply 14):
I remember reading that it is not possible to "reserve" slots at LHR. So if airline has a slot it must use it and can't keep it in storage. So if this is the case, BA has to use all of its slots already. So if they want to use slots for a new route, they must cancel another route or cut frequencies to some destinations.

They have to use each slot on at least 80% of possible days (taking the IATA summer and winter seasons separately). Some frequent short-haul routes never actually operate the full possible timetable because on any given day at least one of the rotations for which slots are allocated is planned not to operate. Note I say "planned not to operate" rather than cancelled, as the flights are not bookable in the first place.
Then there are short haul routes that are obviously slot-sitters, and the acquisition of Aer Lingus by IAG hasn't so far resulted in any rationalisation of the timetable on Dublin and Belfast.
Plenty of scope to squeeze slots out of the short haul network to use on long haul with minimal effect on passengers. The slow rate of expansion is entirely down to availability of new long haul aircraft
 
BlueShamu330s
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 5:44 pm

*Havana*

Jakarta - Perth. The B789 might make the route economics work.

Mahé, Seychelles

New Orleans
Flying around India
 
finnishway
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 5:55 pm

Quoting BlueShamu330s (Reply 18):
Jakarta - Perth. The B789 might make the route economics work.

Singapore - Perth isn't much longer route and BA continues from Singapore to Sydney also. Kuala Lumpur - Perth is pretty much as long route as Jakarta - Perth and BA already operates to Kuala Lumpur.

I think BA would already operate to Perth if it would be in their plans. They just can't compete with Gulf airlines.
 
cedarjet
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 6:02 pm

I know for a fact BA have been considering SXM as a tag-on from another Caribbean destination — so that could happen. Also a return to MSY (which they used to do with Lockheed L10111-500 with onward service to Panama City).
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
 
SCQ83
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 6:03 pm

They should open SCQ so they would double Santiago like they recently did for San Jose with SJC and SJO   In fact IB flew SCQ-LHR in the past so it wouldn't be such an odd route on a seasonal/holiday basis.

As for the Americas, my ideas: HAV, BOG, MSY (from LGW), PDX, CMH.

[Edited 2016-05-18 11:05:19]
 
sierra3tango
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 6:27 pm

BA is strong on N America mostly because of LHRs geographic location / historical ties; maybe some more destinations

LHR is right up there on O&D but about 30% of their (&LHRs) traffic is connecting & it needs to have a broad network
to connect to.

Africa is thin on the ground, as is India & China. US airlines seem to avoid Africa, ME and India; BA might not every
North Americans 'go to' but a reasonable number would/ have in the past. The eastern hemisphere (& maybe Africa) is forecast to
be (maybe is) the coming world growth engine.

Like the idea of non stop PER - I'll dream on
 
finnishway
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 6:29 pm

Eventually they'll probably expand in India. I would say Kochi is a possibility.
 
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GE9X
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 6:36 pm

Quoting sierra3tango (Reply 22):
Africa is thin on the ground, as is India & China. US airlines seem to avoid Africa, ME and India; BA might not every
North Americans 'go to' but a reasonable number would/ have in the past. The eastern hemisphere (& maybe Africa) is forecast to
be (maybe is) the coming world growth engine.

Coming world growth engine... in 50 years maybe. That's been said for decades but it has never really caught on, its (geo)politics are still way too messed up for the economy (and economic drivers like education, infrastructure, and basic services) to really take a foothold.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I believe Air France is the primary carrier between North America and Africa. It could be a market for BA, but the yields are trash for the most part, so I don't know how interesting the market is except to establish a presence for the future. I believe the ME3 may be quickly catching up on that market, even though they are not ideally located.
 
sierra3tango
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 6:40 pm

Quoting GE9X (Reply 24):
Coming world growth engine... in 50 years maybe. That's been said for decades but it has never really caught on, its (geo)politics are still way too messed up for the economy (and economic drivers like education, infrastructure, and basic services) to really take a foothold.

So, lets write off the eastern hemisphere then - hey ho problem solved; all BAs flights should go to North America
 
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GE9X
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 6:46 pm

Quoting sierra3tango (Reply 25):

Not what I said.
 
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TedToToe
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 6:52 pm

I would love to see KIX and/or NGO; connections through HND aren't bad, now that BA has daytime slots, but it still adds 2 to 3 hours when compared with a direct flight. The problem for BA is that JL already codeshare with AY on HEL-KIX and NGO.
 
GSTBA
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 8:40 pm

I think the next route announcement will be something in China with SZX, XMN or XIY all good possibilities
 
EUflyer
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 8:49 pm

I would suspect BA will be reactivating more terminated routes.

Over the past few years reactivated routes include:
SJC
KUL
ICN
IKA (imminent)

BA have also launched routes recently where they have the route to themselves to/from LHR:
SJC
AUS
CTU
SAN
SCL (2017)

which could be due to trying to build up a strong customer base/recognition, so I suspect BA will relaunch old routes where no other competition exist, and to perhaps preempt any moves against the Middle East based airlines in order to gain a share of the market.



[Edited 2016-05-18 14:33:06]
 
NolaMD88fan
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 9:46 pm

KIX, MSY, and CGK are my best guesses. Maybe MEL, but I think a tag on from KUL or CGK would be more likely for that route.
 
TurnaroudUK
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 9:51 pm

Throwing it out there, MAN - JFK   
 
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TedToToe
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 9:58 pm

Quoting TurnaroudUK (Reply 31):
Throwing it out there, MAN - JFK   

Already flown on AA metal, isn't it?
 
jfk777
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 10:45 pm

Osaka, Japan which was flown before by BA.
 
BoeingGuy
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Wed May 18, 2016 11:20 pm

Quoting EUflyer (Reply 29):
Over the past few years reactivated routes include:
SJC
KUL
ICN
IKA (imminent)

BA have also launched routes recently where they have the route to themselves to/from LHR:
SJC
AUS
CTU
SAN
SCL (2017)

Good list. You probably mean SJO in the first one. SAN is a "reactivated" route and should be on the top list.

This seems like an oft repeated topic lately. My guess goes for PDX and maybe STL.
 
JakeNorton
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Thu May 19, 2016 1:01 am

This would be a very big long shot, but possibly LHR-KUL-BNE ? The currently LHR-KUL with a B789 and MH pulled out of BNE with daily A330 flights.
 
2travel2know2
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Thu May 19, 2016 1:17 am

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 9):

Quoting EUflyer (Reply 8):
PTY

Not a OneWorld hub and covered as-is by Iberia over MAD. Also, fairly saturated for a relatively small market (3-4M people)

(BA) LON-PTY O/D passengers hate to fly IB via MAD.
CM PTY hub has been desperate for a LON non-stop flight for quite sometime.
Currently CM code-shares IB MAD flight, BA LON could also bear CM code-share.
IMHO, PTY will settle for a LGW flight if that's what BA could offer as soon as possible.
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
GSPSPOT
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Thu May 19, 2016 1:28 am

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 20):
Also a return to MSY (which they used to do with Lockheed L10111-500

I saw British Miss Rose (I think?) at MSY many years ago, back when MSY still had an open-air observation deck.
Great Lakes, great life.
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Thu May 19, 2016 2:21 am

My guesses would be MSY and PTY

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 20):
Also a return to MSY (which they used to do with Lockheed L10111-500 with onward service to Panama City).

   It was LGW-MSY-MEX, started 1982.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
CairnterriAIR
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Thu May 19, 2016 2:47 am

Eventually I could see BDL as a possibility.
 
Gemuser
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Thu May 19, 2016 2:54 am

Quoting JakeNorton (Reply 35):
This would be a very big long shot, but possibly LHR-KUL-BNE ?

Be nice, but with current BA policies I very, very much doubt it. IMHO a BA pull out of SYD is more likely than ANY new/reactivated Australian port. Which would be very sad after >80 years of operation into Australia [including Imperial Airways, BOAC & joint aircraft services with QF].

Gemuser
DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
 
pipeafcr
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Thu May 19, 2016 3:31 am

Quoting EUflyer (Reply 8):
BOG

I don't think BOG can handle two airlines to/from LHR.... unless something extraordinary happens like the UK follows the EU by lifting the visa requirements for Colombian citizens. I dare to say the route is well served with AV, specially since its served from terminal 2

However would love to see another Colombian city being served like CTG or MDE but that is pushing it I believe. British is no fan of Colombia

[Edited 2016-05-18 20:36:15]
Felipe Carrillo
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Thu May 19, 2016 4:20 am

Quoting pipeafcr (Reply 41):
like CTG

8500ft runway + very small apron = unlikely.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Motorhussy
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Thu May 19, 2016 5:02 am

LHR-PER-AKL with a 789.
come visit the south pacific
 
VFRonTop
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Thu May 19, 2016 8:19 am

Quoting CairnterriAIR (Reply 39):

Eventually I could see BDL as a possibility

I think EI is the right size (757 and potential future A321neoLR) and cost base IAG carrier on this route and with EI planning to enter the TATL JV I cant see BA wanting to take it over. The additional time added by LHR-DUB-BDL connection is minimal.
 
TWA902fly
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Thu May 19, 2016 9:03 am

I would guess some locations "off the beaten path" that could provide premium yield for them if they can manage to be the only carrier to Europe, while taking advantage of the 787s economics. As well as taking advantage of London being one of the world's most major financial centers.

DUR - I know EK is there, but there is no nonstop service to Europe. Once ZA's economy improves a bit.
HRE - Could prove to be very lucrative once Zimbabwe's economy stabilizes (Mugabe is almost double the life expectancy in Zimbabwe... fingers crossed   ).
LUN - Same as above, except the situation isn't quite as bad.
BOG - Avianca serves this, but Colombia's economy is growing, there could be room for 2 airlines, especially given that they'd have separate feed on each of their ends.
HGH - If UA can connect SFO, I don't see why BA wouldn't be able to make LHR work.
XIY - same as above
HNL - Premium tourism could make it work (maybe from LGW)
ANC - only in the summer (maybe from LGW)

I'd agree with the probability of most US cities mentioned in this thread other than SJU. Puerto Rico is going down the drain economically, and tourism is going with it.

We must all keep in mind - BA's biggest constraint is LHR slots! I'm sure there's a good deal of routes they believe they could serve profitably but have to forfeit the opportunity to maintain their current (presumably) profitable routes...

'902
life wasn't worth the balance, or the crumpled paper it was written on
 
Andy33
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Thu May 19, 2016 9:26 am

Quoting TWA902fly (Reply 45):
We must all keep in mind - BA's biggest constraint is LHR slots! I'm sure there's a good deal of routes they believe they could serve profitably but have to forfeit the opportunity to maintain their current (presumably) profitable routes...

No, really it isn't. It is aircraft.
BA have lots and lots of slots. Under the 80% use it or lose it rule at Heathrow they each have to be flown 80% of the time, but there are plenty of rotations which are flown only 80% of possible days. If there were five or six new 789s arriving every month, month in and month out, most of these rotations would be flying 100% of the time and the remainder being used for long haul routes instead of the present shorthaul. Then there are the shorthaul rotations being flown by JetTime for BA because they don't have enough shorthaul aircraft either, the seasonal flights to Greek islands, the fact that no consolidation has yet taken place on the Dublin and Belfast routes, all symptoms of creative slot-sitting.
This year has seen a surge in new routes because the number of new long haul aircraft arriving significantly exceeded the number leaving the fleet. That won't be the case again until part way through 2018.
This is why they are interested in second hand 77Ws and A388s, the economics don't work if they simply keep the 744s and 763s, all distinctly elderly, that otherwise leave the fleet this year, they actually need later-generation aircraft.
 
VFRonTop
Posts: 353
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2012 6:02 pm

RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Thu May 19, 2016 10:19 am

Quoting Andy33 (Reply 46):
No, really it isn't. It is aircraft.

  
 
sandycx
Posts: 18
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 9:07 pm

RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Thu May 19, 2016 10:25 am

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 43):
LHR-PER-AKL with a 789.

I always wondered if BA could make LHR-SIN-SYD-AKL routing work in the same way EK offers two stop flights from AKL-Europe. The 77W does sit at SYD for 10 hours.

Quoting VFRonTop (Reply 44):
I think EI is the right size (757 and potential future A321neoLR) and cost base IAG carrier on this route and with EI planning to enter the TATL JV I cant see BA wanting to take it over. The additional time added by LHR-DUB-BDL connection is minimal.

Does BDL/CT have strong as strong ties to DUB and Ireland as Boston area? If not, maybe connection opportunities from LHR would be more useful for BDL?
 
mutu
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RE: After SCL, Where Could / Should BA Go Next?

Thu May 19, 2016 10:51 am

Quoting finnishway (Reply 19):
I think BA would already operate to Perth if it would be in their plans. They just can't compete with Gulf airlines

You have to remember that both BA and QF suffer on the Kangeroo route BECAUSE thir respective primary hubs are at each end of the route.

So the need to backtrack (particulalrly ex Australia to LHR for other European destinations) was inefficient and unattractive compared to other more centrally located carriers such as LH, ME3)

Hence the EK/QF tie up which is entirely logical.

Ba CAn compete but it must rely purely on O&D in the main to make a route viable.

EK can feed DXB from all over Europe to feed its Australia flights with no backtracking

Now this is a key point in understanding why an airline on the eastern edge of Europe fares better flying westward from eastward and why westward (north south America) growth is more promising. Very very few people would fly LHR/FRA/JFK unless on a mileage run!

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