Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing

wxmeddler · Thu May 19, 2016 3:49 am

FlightRadar has A320-232, Registration # SU-GCC. Serial # 2088, First flight July 2003.

Braniff747SP · Thu May 19, 2016 3:49 am

Quoting lostsound (Reply 39):
Certainly not defaulting, there are several possibilities as to what has happened. However, Paris was also the site of terror not too far ago.

Indeed it was, but--unlike with Egypt--aviation security is a great deal better.

Possible? Most certainly. But it's not the first thing I'd think of.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 54):
FA reports a 738. FR24 reports an A320 registered SU-GCC.

FR24 is much better than FA in Europe. I'd go with them.

b777erj145 · Thu May 19, 2016 3:50 am

Egyptair saying its A320. 10 miles into Egyptian airspace according to CNN. just also mentioned A320 by CNN

F9Animal · Thu May 19, 2016 3:51 am

Wow, this is awful news. If it just suddenly vanished from radar at 37k, the odds of finding survivors is grim. Of course the first concern to cross my mind would be terrorism. Sadly Egypt air safety is concerning, especially with recent terror related aircraft incidents. Of course I am only speculating, and I know that is sometimes frowned upon here.

If anything, I hope and still have my fingers crossed that everyone onboard is okay.

While 60 lives might be lost, it could have been much worse had the flight been full. I know, I am being Captain obvious. Another thing that concerns me is Paris being a target of terror attacks. I know CDG has good security, but we all know terrorist have a fascination of airplanes.

[Edited 2016-05-18 20:57:34]

gatibosgru · Thu May 19, 2016 3:52 am

Boston Globe reporting Egypt Air confirmed it's an A320

qf789 · Thu May 19, 2016 3:54 am

Egyptair has tweeted it an A320

EGYPTAIR A320 was at a height of 37.000ft, and disappeared after entering the Egyptian airspace with 10 miles.

http://twitter.com/EGYPTAIR?ref_src=...le%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

RayChuang · Thu May 19, 2016 3:55 am

They're going to have to find the black boxes, because how the recording of the CVR and FDR ends will be important. But first we have to find the plane....

Sightseer · Thu May 19, 2016 3:55 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 54):
FA tracks SU-GCC as operating MS804 as a 738, but all my sources say that SU-GCC is an A320.

A-net photo search confirms SU-GCC is an A320.

Hoping for the best but preparing for the worst

[Edited 2016-05-18 20:56:07]

laxboeingman · Thu May 19, 2016 3:57 am

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 65):

Very true, and the fact that daylight is coming soon, if not already, should make it easier. Hopefully they can spot any debris field, if there is one, quickly.

RAGAZZO777 · Thu May 19, 2016 3:57 am

All I can think of now is the passengers' families and of course the crew.

wxmeddler · Thu May 19, 2016 3:59 am

Just by looking at FR24, they have good ADS-B coverage in the area at that altitude. So they should be able to pick individual receivers for the timestamps to see whether there was a decent or cutout. Last (summarised) ADS-B that FR24 has is 2016-05-19-00:29:33 UTC.

Ammad · Thu May 19, 2016 4:00 am

https://twitter.com/EGYPTAIR

Egypt Air official twitter account, just in case.

[Edited 2016-05-18 21:01:54]

F9Animal · Thu May 19, 2016 4:02 am

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 67):
Very true, and the fact that daylight is coming soon, if not already, should make it easier. Hopefully they can spot any debris field, if there is one, quickly.

Wouldn't it be great to see people standing on the wing like they did in New York? Holding out hope everyone is okay. Sadly, my heart tells me different. The minimal details we have don't sound promising.

Quoting RAGAZZO777 (Reply 68):

All I can think of now is the passengers' families and of course the crew.

Me too. I couldn't imagine how family and friends are feeling at this very moment. It hurts my heart for them.

rj777 · Thu May 19, 2016 4:03 am

Here we go again. Let's hope they find the plane in relatively short order.

blueheronNC · Thu May 19, 2016 4:04 am

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 71):
Wouldn't it be great to see people standing on the wing like they did in New York? Holding out hope everyone is okay. Sadly, my heart tells me different. The minimal details we have don't sound promising.

Unfortunately the "standing on wing" outcome would only be the case in a controlled ditching, and radar would've tracked that all the way down. Not vanishing at 37k.

laxboeingman · Thu May 19, 2016 4:05 am

CNN says radar contact was lost 20 minutes before time of arrival.

mingocr83 · Thu May 19, 2016 4:07 am

On the good news side, resources should be available at short order, S&R operations are daily due to immigrants from North Africa to Europe and also the area where the plane disappeared is a very active maritime commercial area, various shipping routes there. Take into account that the sun is coming up as well.

VS4ever · Thu May 19, 2016 4:08 am

Quoting wxmeddler (Reply 69):
Just by looking at FR24, they have good ADS-B coverage in the area at that altitude. So they should be able to pick individual receivers for the timestamps to see whether there was a decent or cutout. Last (summarised) ADS-B that FR24 has is 2016-05-19-00:29:33 UTC.

flightaware's stamp is 12 seconds earlier, so definitely in the right ball park

I plotted the coordinates and slap bang in the middle of the med, i just don't get it.. oh well the speculation and the reports will help us figure it out i guess.

I hope to goodness all is ok, but by the looks of things, i think we all believe where this going passenger wise anyway, another sad day for Aviation, the 320, Egyptair, Paris and Egypt

b777erj145 · Thu May 19, 2016 4:08 am

http://avherald.com/h?article=4987fb09&opt=0
The aviation herald link. Estimated to land at 3:10 local. Radar contact was lost at 2:45 local. GMT is -2 local time

sparky35805 · Thu May 19, 2016 4:10 am

Is 37000 High for 20 minutes before landing?

laxboeingman · Thu May 19, 2016 4:11 am

Vice Chair of Egyptair is on CNN, and he says" 66 souls on board." He said "the captain has 6,000 flight hours." He said FO had several thousand, and he said "there was no special cargo on board."

wjcandee · Thu May 19, 2016 4:13 am

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 71):
Wouldn't it be great to see people standing on the wing like they did in New York?

Yeah, if they had lost both engines and they were 20 minutes out of Cairo at 37,000 feet, they could have done a dead-stick landing at an actual airport.

ams747757 · Thu May 19, 2016 4:14 am

Awful news, hope this turns out ok but I know good news is unlikely. Thinking of the families for sure.

I'm sure with many recent incidents being terror related it is easy to jump to a conclusion like this, but what if it is more of an AF447 scenario?

[Edited 2016-05-18 21:15:30]

laxboeingman · Thu May 19, 2016 4:15 am

66 souls: 56 pax, [53 adults, 2 infants, 1 child], 2 cockpit crew, 5 cabin crew, 3 security crew

Breakdown from Vice Chair of EgyptAir Holdings who is now on CNN.

[Edited 2016-05-18 21:15:33]

laxboeingman · Thu May 19, 2016 4:16 am

Quoting ams747757 (Reply 81):
I'm sure with many recent incidents being terror related it is easy to jump to a conclusion like this, but what if it is more of an AF447 scenario?

Didn't weather play a role in that?

LAX772LR · Thu May 19, 2016 4:16 am

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 71):
Wouldn't it be great to see people standing on the wing like they did in New York?

I believe "miraculous" is the word you're looking for, not just "great."

Big difference between landing on a wavy body of water versus a smoother river.

DocLightning · Thu May 19, 2016 4:16 am

SU-GCC (S/N: 2088) is an Airbus A320-232. She first flew 25th July 2003. She is powered by twin IAE V2527-A5.

Sudden loss of primary and secondary contact at cruise without any further information in flight almost always means a catastrophic event, such as an explosive decompression that causes the aircraft to disintegrate in flight. Structural failure and sabotage/attack would be the two most likely causes (not necessarily in that order; spontaneous structural failure at cruise causing catastrophic loss of aircraft hasn't happened in a *very* long time). Egyptair is generally known as a safe carrier with good maintenance and no known safety or maintenance problems.

In an AF447 situation, there is a continuation of signal from the aircraft. Same was true with EuroWings. In this case, there is no hint that the aircraft was put into a dive or that any foul play. If this were a US1549 situation, there would have been communication with control and the aircraft would have been tracked down to the sea. They were not that far away from land and were probably talking to Cairo.

At this point I would say that there is a 90% possibility that this was an explosive device. Add 5% for a total of 95% because this was a flight to the middle east.

What is more curious is that: 1) This aircraft originated in Paris. 2) The explosion occurred over water. I will not be surprised if the wreckage is found in deep water. This was probably carefully planned.

If Islamic extremists are looking to incite anti-Muslim sentiment in France, this is an excellent way of doing it.

Quoting flymia (Reply 55):

Yea, weather seems to be a non-factor at all. When modern airliners fall out of the sky at FL370, from an airline with no known safety issues, IMO the stats these days lean towards malicious activity.

I can only agree.

32andBelow · Thu May 19, 2016 4:18 am

What did the A/C do today? If it was a quick out and back it is possible a device could of been loaded in Egypt and timed for the return. Or perhaps a pax from the out leg could of stowed something in the cabin.

laxboeingman · Thu May 19, 2016 4:20 am

CNN meteorologist says the water temps were in the 70s Fahrenheit in likely area the plane went down.

[Edited 2016-05-18 21:20:49]

PlanesNTrains · Thu May 19, 2016 4:20 am

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 82):
3 security crew

Hell lotta good that did by the looks of it, unfortunately.

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 82):
5 cabin crew

All seriousness aside, up until the event service must have been pretty amazing.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 85):
This aircraft originated in Paris.

This just seems to coincidental for it not to be Islamic extremism, but we'll find out eventually I'm sure.

-Dave

bioyuki · Thu May 19, 2016 4:20 am

Quoting VS4ever (Reply 76):
flightaware's stamp is 12 seconds earlier, so definitely in the right ball park

I plotted the coordinates and slap bang in the middle of the med, i just don't get it.. oh well the speculation and the reports will help us figure it out i guess.

I hope to goodness all is ok, but by the looks of things, i think we all believe where this going passenger wise anyway, another sad day for Aviation, the 320, Egyptair, Paris and Egypt

Yeah, both have good ADS-B coverage and likely the same feeders on the ground feeding both sites:

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/M.../20160518/2045Z/LFPG/HECA/tracklog

No signs of a descent...they did change heading from 139 degrees to 136 degrees right before the signal was lost however.

KBUF · Thu May 19, 2016 4:21 am

Quoting 32andBelow (Reply 86):

What did the A/C do today?

According to FR24, it flew ASM-CAI-TUN-CAI-CDG today prior to the ill-fated leg.

[Edited 2016-05-18 21:23:19]

B747forever · Thu May 19, 2016 4:21 am

With so much time having passed from its original arrival time, I doubt we are looking at a good outcome

bhill · Thu May 19, 2016 4:21 am

Hmmm......bomb or a missile frigate....I know, not enough info........if it walks like a duck.....

Spacepope · Thu May 19, 2016 4:21 am

Quoting 32andBelow (Reply 86):

Aircraft was in Tunisia earlier today

litz · Thu May 19, 2016 4:22 am

Quoting laxboeingman (Reply 83):
Didn't weather play a role in that?

The only role weather played in AF447 was icing the pitot sensors, causing the erroneous information that the flight crew then failed to properly handle/manage.

They managed to stall and crash the airplane all on their own, and the weather basically had nothing to do with it, other than be the initiating event that sent them down their fateful path.

caoimhin · Thu May 19, 2016 4:22 am

Quoting 32andBelow (Reply 86):

It had five flights today.

ASM-CAI
CAI-TUN
TUN-CAI
CAI-CDG
CDG-CAI

[Edited 2016-05-18 21:50:36]

ZeeZoo · Thu May 19, 2016 4:22 am

Before we go down the rabbit hole of "Islamic terrorism" let's do realise and apply some logic here that a Paris to Cairo flight would likely be majority Muslim passengers and hence, with most Muslim extremists, the victims are their own kin.

laxboeingman · Thu May 19, 2016 4:23 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 88):
Hell lotta good that did by the looks of it, unfortunately.

I agree. I am not sure if these people are supposed to act like air marshals, but they couldn't stop the plane from going down. Maybe if someone got access to the cockpit, they tried to stop that person. Maybe they helped during the flight. Voice recorder will hopefully allow us to hear them.

bioyuki · Thu May 19, 2016 4:23 am

Quoting 32andBelow (Reply 86):
What did the A/C do today? If it was a quick out and back it is possible a device could of been loaded in Egypt and timed for the return. Or perhaps a pax from the out leg could of stowed something in the cabin.

Looks like that frame did CAI-TUN-CAI-CDG-CAI

B52overSMF · Thu May 19, 2016 4:23 am

Per EgyptAir's Twitter feed:

"EGYPTAIR A320 was at a height of 37.000ft, and disappeared after entering the Egyptian airspace with 10 miles."

It's a little unclear exactly what they mean by that but I wonder if they meant that it had entered Egypt's airspace, traveled 10 miles, then disappeared?

In addition to the (for lack of better words) 'regular' causal guesses (catastrophic failure, weather, bombing, hijacking), I can't help but wonder if this may be another instance of an aircraft being shot down? If the FlightRadar24 track is indeed accurate, perhaps by a malicious entity trying their hand at shooting aircraft down while at sea (I can think of a few reasons this would be preferred path) or a military/navy ship? Just part of the pre-evidence speculation...

airtechy · Thu May 19, 2016 4:24 am

Hope this is not another Malaysian Airlines flight into the unknown. That started with a loss of signal at altitude. Egyptair had one suicidal pilot years ago.

32andBelow · Thu May 19, 2016 4:25 am

Quoting B52overSMF (Reply 99):
It's a little unclear exactly what they mean by that but I wonder if they meant that it had entered Egypt's airspace, traveled 10 miles, then disappeared?

In addition to the (for lack of better words) 'regular' causal guesses (catastrophic failure, weather, bombing, hijacking), I can't help but wonder if this may be another instance of an aircraft being shot down? If the FlightRadar24 track is indeed accurate, perhaps by a malicious entity trying their hand at shooting aircraft down while at sea (I can think of a few reasons this would be preferred path) or a military/navy ship? Just part of the pre-evidence speculation...

Wasn't the shoot down on MH17 almost only possible on first world equipment?

DocLightning · Thu May 19, 2016 4:25 am

Quoting ZeeZoo (Reply 96):
Before we go down the rabbit hole of "Islamic terrorism" let's do realise and apply some logic here that a Paris to Cairo flight would likely be majority Muslim passengers and hence, with most Muslim extremists, the victims are their own kin.

Just like those terrorists setting off bombs in Baghdad attacking other Muslims.

According to Greek ATC: "They did not radio for help. They just disappeared."

DariusBieber · Thu May 19, 2016 4:25 am

Quoting ZeeZoo (Reply 96):

Before we go down the rabbit hole of "Islamic terrorism" let's do realise and apply some logic here that a Paris to Cairo flight would likely be majority Muslim passengers and hence, with most Muslim extremists, the victims are their own kin.

Not only that, I don't think they would go through all the troubles of planning an attack on an Egyptian state aircraft, with a passenger load of 45%, over open waters, on a red-eye flight. Wouldn't they want to maximize trauma and fatality?

[Edited 2016-05-18 21:26:46]

laxboeingman · Thu May 19, 2016 4:26 am

Quoting litz (Reply 94):
They managed to stall and crash the airplane all on their own, and the weather basically had nothing to do with it, other than be the initiating event that sent them down their fateful path.

Thanks, and good point.

Quoting ZeeZoo (Reply 96):

Before we go down the rabbit hole of "Islamic terrorism" let's do realise and apply some logic here that a Paris to Cairo flight would likely be majority Muslim passengers and hence, with most Muslim extremists, the victims are their own kin.

My impression is that the Islamic State will go after anyone who is not one of them, meaning member of the Islamic State or a different kind if Muslim.

32andBelow · Thu May 19, 2016 4:27 am

Quoting DariusBieber (Reply 103):
Not only that, I don't think they would go through all the troubles of planning an attack on an Egyptian state aircraft, with a passenger load of 45%, over open waters, on a red-eye flight. Wouldn't they want to maximize trauma and fatality?

Someone placing a bomb on an aircraft may not even know the load factor or even where the plane is heading.

laxboeingman · Thu May 19, 2016 4:29 am

Quoting DariusBieber (Reply 103):
Not only that, I don't think they would go through all the troubles of planning an attack on an Egyptian state aircraft, with a passenger load of 45%, over open waters. Wouldn't they want to maximize trauma and fatality?

Many believe Egypt is the Islamic State's next target. Yes, they would want to maximize, but I think they just try to get as many people as possible at that given time. If this what they had planned, then they would be fine with whatever the number is. At least that is my impression based on what I know about the Islamic State from a journalistic perspective.

DocLightning · Thu May 19, 2016 4:30 am

Quoting DariusBieber (Reply 103):

Not only that, I don't think they would go through all the troubles of planning an attack on an Egyptian state aircraft, with a passenger load of 45%, over open waters, on a red-eye flight. Wouldn't they want to maximize trauma and fatality?

Passenger loads are difficult to predict. Explosion over deep water would hamper SAR and investigation. The fact that the aircraft exploded at 0200 also makes SAR and investigation difficult.

As for why Muslims would kills Muslims, IS does that all the time. Another possible motive might be to foment anti-Muslim sentiment in France, which would serve to isolate Muslims more from society.

laxboeingman · Thu May 19, 2016 4:31 am

CNN just said the flight hours again, FO had more than 4,000 flight hours.

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