Mir
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:00 am

Quoting ZKOJQ (Reply 163):
Quoting sq_ek_freak (Reply 46):
Incidentally why is MS staffing an A320 with less than 60 passengers with 10 crew?

Maybe the inbound CAI-CDG sector was full?

Considering they apparently have security officers onboard, 10 doesn't seem like a lot. If you have two pilots and two security officers, six FAs makes 10. And while six is more than you'd need for a 320, it's not that much more.

-Mir
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77west
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:01 am

The water around that area is around 3000m deep. I wonder, if it has crashed, how long it will take to find. I was surprised to learn the Med was that deep.

AF447 was at 3980m.
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:06 am

Based off the information on the nationality of the passengers and the destination, this flight was carrying a good amount of connecting pax. I wonder if a terror group was targeting an individual who was onboard. However, it could be a coincidence because CAI is trying(was trying) to become a connecting hub for the MENA region.
 
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:07 am

Quoting ZeeZoo (Reply 96):
Before we go down the rabbit hole of "Islamic terrorism" let's do realise and apply some logic here that a Paris to Cairo flight would likely be majority Muslim passengers and hence, with most Muslim extremists, the victims are their own kin.

As they usually are. Just maybe not part of their "team".
 
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:09 am

Quoting Mir (Reply 157):
But why? With IR 655, you had the political situation between Iran and the US as a contributing factor. With MH 17 you had the political situation between Russia and Ukraine. What political situation is there that would lead someone with ships in the Med to want to shoot down a high-altitude airliner?

I'm not speculating on motives, I'm just saying it could a) be a missile, and b) be a mistake.
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:09 am

Quoting Capt.Fantastic (Reply 161):
a missile is definitely a possibility

At 37,000 feet? Not one a terrorist could launch.
 
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77west
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:11 am

Quoting wjcandee (Reply 170):

At 37,000 feet? Not one a terrorist could launch.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17

Yes they could.
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:12 am

Quoting 77west (Reply 166):
The water around that area is around 3000m deep. I wonder, if it has crashed, how long it will take to find. I was surprised to learn the Med was that deep.

People have been sailing waters in that area for ... well ... as long as there've been people.

It's very highly traveled.

It should not take long at all for debris to be spotted.

To find underwater wreckage, that's a roll of the dice, but there's gonna be stuff floating on the surface, and it'll be found quickly.

Still, it's a very heavily traveled, and populated, part of the ocean. Just google up any marine tracker website and look at how many AIS tracks there are in the Med ...
 
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:12 am

Quoting B747forever (Reply 129):
what these fools are doing is against everything Islam or any religion stands for.

Then why don't the majority of the followers of that faith roundly-denounce the terrorists? Why don't "peaceful" Imams rise up and shout down the terrorists? Why don't the few that even will say anything provide anything more than PR lip-service?

Uh-huh.

There are parallels to the IRA and its "political wing". Same playbook. "Oh, no, we are working for peaceful change." Boom.

[Edited 2016-05-18 23:14:21]
 
doug_or
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:14 am

Quoting 77west (Reply 171):
Yes they could.

Not according to the article you just linked to.
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77west
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:15 am

Quoting litz (Reply 172):
People have been sailing waters in that area for ... well ... as long as there've been people.It's very highly traveled.It should not take long at all for debris to be spotted.To find underwater wreckage, that's a roll of the dice, but there's gonna be stuff floating on the surface, and it'll be found quickly.Still, it's a very heavily traveled, and populated, part of the ocean. Just google up any marine tracker website and look at how many AIS tracks there are in the Med ...

Sorry, I realize debris will be easier to find than AF447, but I meant the main wreckage.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:28/centery:34/zoom:7

Looks like there are a few ships nearby.
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:16 am

Quoting doug_or (Reply 174):
Not according to the article you just linked to.

Perhaps with the BUK they used but who knows what they can get their hands on these days.

That said, if terrorism, much more likely to be a bomb.
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Mir
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:17 am

Quoting 77west (Reply 171):
Yes they could.

That was using military equipment provided by Russia. Those things don't just appear in the arsenal of a terrorist group. And that was shot down over land - having a sea-based SAM is even harder for a terrorist group because it's got to fit on a ship. Your average small boat isn't going to cut it.

-Mir
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sandyb123
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:19 am

Reuters reporting a distress signal from the aircraft just before contact was lost. (Source BBC News channel)

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SCQ83
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:19 am

Btw Le Monde reports

Quote:
56 passagers
3 agents de sécurité
2 pilotes
5 membres d'équipage cabine

What do they mean by 3 security agents?

I know some carriers like RJ have security agents, but isn't 3 security agents too much for 56 passengers? It seems that something fishy was going on with MS.
 
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77west
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:19 am

Quoting Mir (Reply 178):
That was using military equipment provided by Russia. Those things don't just appear in the arsenal of a terrorist group. And that was shot down over land - having a sea-based SAM is even harder for a terrorist group because it's got to fit on a ship. Your average small boat isn't going to cut it.

I agree. But it is not impossible. That's the point I was making. But like I said before, it would probably be far easier to get a bomb onboard than a sea-launched SAM.
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:22 am

Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 143):
There's also the possibility that this is an IR 655 type incident...

Kind of off topic, but I find it mildly interesting that after all these years, Iran Air still uses this exact flight number for the exact route that the incident occurred on in 1988.
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PlanesNTrains
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:23 am

Quoting sandyb123 (Reply 179):

Reuters reporting a distress signal from the aircraft just before contact was lost.

1. "Maybe they were able to land at an abandoned airstrip?"
2. "A distress signal was received right before it disappeared."
3. "Witnesses reported that the aircraft appeared to be on fire."

These are the three things we seem to always hear early on in these sad events. It'll be interesting to see if it is actually true this time.

-Dave
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CANPILOT
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:26 am

Egypt Air confirming there was indeed a distress call made by the pilots.
 
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:28 am

Quoting CANPILOT (Reply 186):
Egypt Air confirming there was indeed a distress call made by the pilots.

For the life of me, I will never understand how it takes hours for these things to come out? Additionally, why it takes so long sometimes to find out the nature of the distress call?

It's rhetorical because I'm sure there are often valid reasons - initial distress call wasn't heard clearly, security reasons, etc. - but it frustrates me to no end.

-Dave
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seahawk
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:32 am

With the wars in Lybia and Syria you probably could get your hands on SAMs able to hit an airliner in cruise. SA-3 or SA-6 would probably fit anything able to carry 5 trucks or a bit more. For a SA-6 and if you would perhaps use FR-24 as your "early warning / area surveillance radar" you would just need one TEL and the SURN 1S91 vehicle with the targeting radar.

Much less likely than a technical fault or a bomb, but not impossible.

Currently I would say, ordered by most likely to least likely

technical fault
bomb
other causes.

[Edited 2016-05-18 23:34:51]
 
jacobin777
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:34 am

Quoting wjcandee (Reply 173):
Then why don't the majority of the followers of that faith roundly-denounce the terrorists? Why don't "peaceful" Imams rise up and shout down the terrorists? Why don't the few that even will say anything provide anything more than PR lip-service?

1)They do, you should pay more attention.
2)Its not possible to denounce every single situation.
"Up the Irons!"
 
jpetekyxmd80
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:35 am

I have no idea what they mean by this distress call. CNN is making it sound like pilot radio communications but isnt it likely theyre talking about an ELT beacon or something?
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77west
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:40 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 188):
With the wars in Lybia and Syria you probably could get your hands on SAMs able to hit an airliner in cruise. SA-3 or SA-6 would probably fit anything able to carry 5 trucks or a bit more. For a SA-6 and if you would perhaps use FR-24 as your "early warning / area surveillance radar" you would just need one TEL and the SURN 1S91 vehicle with the targeting radar.

That's the sad thing - it might seem far-fetched but so did 9-11 and MH17 if you thought about them before they happened.
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:50 am

If a bomb, then it could easily have been loaded anywhere the airplane has been in the last 24 hours or more, judiciously hidden and set on a timer.

If it turns out to be terrorism, and it's hard to swipe away the idea when you hear names such as 'Egyptair, Paris, Tunisia, etc', then it could be a tangible possibility...
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
CANPILOT
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:50 am

I think it is safe to assume there was some sort of explosive decompression, whether its because of a bomb, missile, or some sort of dramatic mechanical failure. If there was a hijacking, or pilots

Quoting seahawk (Reply 188):
Much likely than a technical fault or a bomb, but not impossible.

I think it is safe to assume this was a dramatic incident; the plane was brought down rapidly, whether its by a bomb, missile, or mechanical failure is unclear. The distress call seams to suggest that there was time and an attempt to save the aircraft by the pilots. But it clearly was not a controlled ditch because the data available doesn't show a relatively gradual decent.

Quoting wjcandee (Reply 173):
Then why don't the majority of the followers of that faith roundly-denounce the terrorists? Why don't "peaceful" Imams rise up and shout down the terrorists? Why don't the few that even will say anything provide anything more than PR lip-service?

Every Muslim I know personally has explicitly denounced these acts and these groups actions, repeatedly. It's only the media which seems to perpetuate/insinuate that the majority of Muslims, specifically in western countries, are hate-filled and agree with or condone there heinous acts of terrorism. As others have stated, more Muslims have been victims of these acts than any other group; if today this plane crash turns out to be a terrorist attract, more than likely the majority of the victims will be Muslims.

What do you want normal Muslims to do? Buy a loud speaker and take to the streets yelling that they denounce terrorist acts and groups every time something like this happens? Most of the Muslims I know Canada are hard workers that just want to live a normal life and earn enough money to feed their family, and send their kids to college.
 
CANPILOT
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:53 am

Quoting jpetekyxmd80 (Reply 190):

I have no idea what they mean by this distress call. CNN is making it sound like pilot radio communications but isnt it likely theyre talking about an ELT beacon or something?

CNN are now saying it could be a beacon signal, or even a ship in the area sending a signal in relation to the plane crash. Apparently, it is not clear even after this much time.
 
wjcandee
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:53 am

Quoting AR385 (Reply 197):
CNN reporting there was a distress call made.

Somebody always reports this, and it almost always turns out to be wrong.

Egyptair on the other hand, initially reported that there was no emergency communication from the aircraft.

Regardless of where it's coming from, there is at least an 80-percent chance that it didn't happen. This is all post-accident fog. In an environment of media just putting unfiltered crap on the air.

[Edited 2016-05-18 23:59:50]
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:54 am

Quoting YULWinterSkies (Reply 149):
only Zanzibar among the places you listed is in a Muslim part of Africa, if Islamic terrorism this is your concern.

And yet, nearly all of the places mentioned have been subject to Islamic terrorist attacks. Tanzanian and Kenyan embassies/hotels especially come to mind.


Quoting yoni (Reply 160):
If you have nothing to say in a constructive way, please refrain from using this forum to display your hatred.

  


Quoting CANPILOT (Reply 186):
Egypt Air confirming there was indeed a distress call made by the pilots.

CNN and others are already walking it back, saying that there may have been a distress call "in the area" that "may have come from this plane"
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
FCAFLYBOY
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 6:55 am

Just read on avherald that an ELT signal was detected? Hopefully this will help with the recovery operation at least.

https://avherald.com/h?article=4987fb09&opt=0

Not sounding too promising, thoughts are with those onboard and their loved ones.
 
mila
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 7:01 am

Better link to the Aviation Herald ELT signal information.

http://avherald.com/h?article=4987fb09
 
alfa164
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 7:05 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 126):
Although I can't imagine why ETA or IRA or any other terrorist groups would be targeting a CDG-CAI flight.

Egypt has been suffering from its own internal conflicts that do not necessarily involve the well-known world-wide terrorist groups.

Quoting CANPILOT (Reply 186):

Egypt Air confirming there was indeed a distress call made by the pilots.

That probably eliminates the theories of any immediate break-up, i.e., a missile or large-scale bomb, but either mechanical failure, small-scale explosion causing depressurization, or an onboard attack cannot be ruled out.
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DocLightning
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 7:08 am

Quoting LovesCoffee (Reply 162):

Quoting Miami (Reply 19):
CNN is saying it's a 737-800

Ahh, CNN. Even in the midst of tragedy they manage to amuse.

Their info was from Flight Aware. Confused me, too.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
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blacksoviet
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 7:10 am

So because they ignored them, the Israelis decided to kill everyone onboard the 727-200.
 
mila
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 7:10 am

What is the radar coverage for that area, is there any primary radar that could track that far out to the sea?
 
CANPILOT
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RE: CNN Reporting Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing.

Thu May 19, 2016 7:13 am

Unconfirmed reports by some ships in the area of "an explosion in the nights sky". According to CNN.
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:17 am

Quoting CANPILOT (Reply 198):
CNN are now saying it could be a beacon signal,

Yep. Other sources are saying that it may have been an automated signal, and not a human-initiated one.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
AR385
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:19 am

I assume that given the area, a lot of floating debris will be found easily. So with that debris, it will be farily easy to determine in short order wether an explosive device was used, right?
 
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Francoflier
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:21 am

CNN is always happy to blurt out the first piece of info they receive without bothering to fact check for the sake of having the exclusive.

You could call them right now claiming to know exactly what hapened and they'd air it before you're done hanging up.
CNN is the place where professional journalism goes to die...
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
ktof
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:23 am

I made this point as the last post in the previous thread but I feel it needs making again.

We are all on here to read and post about aviation, not anybody's personal political agenda.

Please keep that BS away from here and go and argue on another forum, at present we have a lot of souls missing so I really don't care how much you hate Israel etc.

Thank you
 
CANPILOT
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:23 am

Quoting AR385 (Reply 2):

I assume that given the area, a lot of floating debris will be found easily. So with that debris, it will be farily easy to determine in short order wether an explosive device was used, right?

Not necessarily, I would imagine if the debris is found in the next few hours, they will immediately look for survivors in that area and try to recover the black boxes if possible. Might be a while before they can definitively determine what the cause was.
 
777LRF
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:24 am

Quoting AR385 (Reply 2):

For the most part yeah. I'm not an expert in this sort of forensics/analysis but I have close friends who are and it's always amazing what one can learn simply from applying scientific method to the debris. An automatically initiated ELT signal would almost certainly confirm a crash. My sincere condolences to all on board and those affected.      
 
CANPILOT
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:25 am

Quoting Francoflier (Reply 3):

CNN is always happy to blurt out the first piece of info they receive without bothering to fact check for the sake of having the exclusive.

You could call them right now claiming to know exactly what hapened and they'd air it before you're done hanging up.
CNN is the place where professional journalism goes to die...

True, but are the other main news networks really any better?
 
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winterlight
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:32 am

Quoting CANPILOT (Reply 7):
True, but are the other main news networks really any better?

No. Maintsream is all the same.
Question everything. Trust no-one.
 
axio
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:34 am

Questions from a non Av person....

They we're getting close to Cairo, and must have been close to starting descent. Are there problems that might be triggered by starting descent?

Their groundspeed was gradually increasing and then a little more at the end. Is that likely reflected in airspeed or was the wind speed the contributor? And at what level would speed be considered a problem?
Time for a new viewing deck at AKL!
 
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scbriml
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:34 am

BBC now reporting that IS claims to have bombed the plane.

Also reporting that the Egyptian military denies a distress call was received from the plane.

[Edited 2016-05-19 00:38:28]
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axio
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:38 am

With all (not) due respect for IS, is it not more likely that they're just trying to take credit regardless?
If a device was pressure triggered it would have gone off way earlier in the flight, and if their goal was casualties, why over the sea?
Time for a new viewing deck at AKL!
 
Bealine251
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:38 am

According to the BBC news they are saying that the Egyptian authorities have said that a distress signal was/has not been heard.
 
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77west
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:42 am

Quoting axio (Reply 9):
Questions from a non Av person....

They we're getting close to Cairo, and must have been close to starting descent. Are there problems that might be triggered by starting descent?

Their groundspeed was gradually increasing and then a little more at the end. Is that likely reflected in airspeed or was the wind speed the contributor? And at what level would speed be considered a problem?

Generally not, descent involves a gentle reduction in power, usually close to flight idle, and a descent of between 800-2000ft/min depending on the VNAV profile. There does not seem to be a lot that could go wrong at this point, certainly, they were far away from any major configuration changes like flaps or landing gear or maneuverings.

The slight increase in ground speed would mostly be from changes to the winds aloft along that area. Not unusual at all.
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AR385
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:42 am

Wouldn´t primary had caught multiple radar targets as the plane disintegrated? I know this happened with PA103. Is the 737 too small for this effect to occurr? I say this because as often is the case, I´m pretty sure authorities by now must know at least what happened after the plane went silent.

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Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos