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77west
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:43 am

Quoting AR385 (Reply 14):
Wouldn´t primary had caught multiple radar targets as the plane disintegrated? I know this happened with PA103. Is the 737 too small for this effect to occurr? I say this because as often is the case, I´m pretty sure authorities by now must know at least what happened after the plane went silent.

It was an A320, but yes, both the A320 and 737 should show something on primary; the relevant people are probably working on that data as we speak.
77West - AW109S - BE90 - JS31 - B1900 - Q300 - ATR72 - DC9-30 - MD80 - B733 - A320 - B738 - A300-B4 - B773 - B77W
 
florens
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:44 am

Quoting AR385 (Reply 14):
Is the 737 too small for this effect to occurr?

It was an A320.
Kind regards, Florens
 
AR385
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:45 am

Quoting 77west (Reply 15):
It was an A320

My bad. I knew it was an A320. It´s 02:45AM, thanks for the correction!
 
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Francoflier
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:46 am

Quoting CANPILOT (Reply 7):

Not really. It looks like a race to the bottom these days...
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
CANPILOT
Posts: 102
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:49 am

Quoting axio (Reply 9):
They we're getting close to Cairo, and must have been close to starting descent. Are there problems that might be triggered by starting descent?

Their groundspeed was gradually increasing and then a little more at the end. Is that likely reflected in airspeed or was the wind speed the contributor? And at what level would speed be considered a problem?

Someone else with more experience can add to this, but I can't think of any procedure prior the decent phase that could trigger a dramatic form of loss of altitude which is what seems to have been the case here.

The data available online is from ADS-B, so the speed would be ground speed - some minor fluctuation wouldn't be abnormal.
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:50 am

Egyptian officials now officially denying a human-generated distress signal.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
PHX787
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:00 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 20):
Egyptian officials now officially denying a human-generated distress signal.

Basically Laymans terms for an ELT
Follow me on twitter: www.twitter.com/phx787
 
lancelot07
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:06 am

Sounds bad.
RIP to all concerned.
 
pecevanne
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:08 am

Plane crash near Greek Island of Karpathos according to France 24 and Greek Civil Aviation Authorities
 
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77west
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:12 am

Quoting pecevanne (Reply 23):
Plane crash near Greek Island of Karpathos according to France 24 and Greek Civil Aviation Authorities

That would imply they turned around?
77West - AW109S - BE90 - JS31 - B1900 - Q300 - ATR72 - DC9-30 - MD80 - B733 - A320 - B738 - A300-B4 - B773 - B77W
 
CANPILOT
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:13 am

Quoting pecevanne (Reply 23):

Plane crash near Greek Island of Karpathos according to France 24 and Greek Civil Aviation Authorities

Just saw this on twitter, unverified video of a "ball of fire in the sky" seen from that island. It may be fake/old video, since CNN, BBC are not running it yet.

https://twitter.com/7NewsSydney/status/733207063388553216
 
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Plainplane
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:15 am

Official statement from Airbus on their FaceBook page now:

Airbus regrets to confirm the loss of an Egyptair A320, flight ‪#‎MS804‬. Our concerns go to all those affected.

Statement #1:

Airbus regrets to confirm that an A320 operated by Egyptair was lost at around 02:30 am (Egypt local time) today over the Mediterranean sea. The aircraft was operating a scheduled service, Flight MS 804 from Paris, France to Cairo, Egypt.

The aircraft involved, registered under SU-GCC was MSN (Manufacturer Serial Number) 2088 delivered to Egyptair from the production line in November 2003. The aircraft had accumulated approximately 48,000 flight hours. It was powered by IAE engines. At this time no further factual information is available.

In line with ICAO annex 13, Airbus stands-by ready to provide full technical assistance to French Investigation Agency - BEA - and to the Authorities in charge of the investigation.

The first A320 entered service in March 1988. At the end of April 2016 over6700 A320 Family aircraft were in operation worldwide. To date, the entire fleet has accumulated nearly 180 million flight hours in over 98 million flights.

Our concerns go to all those affected.

Airbus will make further factual information available as soon as the details have been confirmed and cleared by the authorities for release.


https://www.facebook.com/airbus/

[Edited 2016-05-19 01:17:41]
 
CANPILOT
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:16 am

Quoting pecevanne (Reply 23):
Plane crash near Greek Island of Karpathos according to France 24 and Greek Civil Aviation Authorities

Also, wouldn't this conflict with the data available online (flightradar24 and flight aware) which indicates the plane traveled further past that island?
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:16 am

Quoting AR385 (Reply 14):
Wouldn´t primary had caught multiple radar targets as the plane disintegrated?


This plane disappeared in the center of the triangle ALY - NIC - HER - and this is 270 km from the coast line. How far out there is radar coverage good enough to discern aircraft debris?


David
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
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qf789
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:20 am

Airbus has released a statement. The aircraft had accumulated approximately 48000 flight hours

http://t.co/M2bCgegqH5
Forum Moderator
 
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Aesma
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:24 am

Sad news.

Hope we know very soon a probable cause.

I'm flying out of Paris to North Africa (Morroco) next Monday, on RAM, it's a bit concerning.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
aircatalonia
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:26 am

Two Iraqis on boards according to the BBC. I'm sure someone is running some background checks on these two individuals...
 
CANPILOT
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:28 am

"Video tracks ships deployed to search for missing EgyptAir flight MS804"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...search-for-missing-egyptair-fligh/

[Edited 2016-05-19 01:29:28]
 
dc863
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:29 am

No doubt the French are going to question every airport worker employed at CDG for not only Egyptair but every airline.
 
RyanAirB737
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:32 am

Quoting CANPILOT (Reply 25):

Looks like a meteor or space debris. If that was an airliner on fire, there may have been enough time to make a real distress call, maybe, and I'd suppose it would be heading down to the ocean, not flying nearly straight.

Still no source, and it seems to be in a different area (unless the plane turned around).
 
gia777
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:33 am

1. A bomb could have been inside the plane.
2. Pilot Suicide.
3. A major engine / aircraft component failure.

I can't think of anything else beside those 3, otherwise, the pilot for some reason should have said something, anything.

4. Pilot error like Air Asia - even that, they should have said something.
5. When Swiss Air was under heavy fire, the pilot was still managed to communicate.
Cheers,

GIA777 :coffee:
 
GDB
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:40 am

Quoting dc863 (Reply 34):
No doubt the French are going to question every airport worker employed at CDG for not only Egyptair but every airline.

The BBC reported that in the wake of the Paris attacks, a major investigation was carried out of those with airside access, of over 80,000 people, some 60 had their access revoked.
May mean something, may not, too early to tell.
 
TheCommodore
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:43 am

Quoting axio (Reply 11):
why over the sea?

Why not over the sea, just as good a place as any.
“At first, they'll only dislike what you say, but the more correct you start sounding the more they'll dislike you.”
 
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aerorobnz
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:43 am

I flew this route with MS a few years ago, it was an A330-300, even back then the loads were light, so this will kill off the remnants of the Egyptian tourism industry if it is proven to be anything sinister.

Lithium Ion battery fire perhaps? Given how many people every day travel with them (in their luggage yes, we intercept dozens a day due to people not following instruction), if it was in luggage and caught fire they might have burned out prior to being able to land

If it's terrorism, perish the though, it could well add flames to the Trump fire.. With that in mind I seriously hope nothing sinister was the cause.

This could be an interesting one folks, hang on for the ride. It may well have wider implications on the industry, the refugee crisis, US Election depending on the cause.
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
scouseflyer
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:43 am

Quoting gia777 (Reply 38):

1. A bomb could have been inside the plane.
2. Pilot Suicide.
3. A major engine / aircraft component failure.

I can't think of anything else beside those 3, otherwise, the pilot for some reason should have said something, anything.

4. Pilot error like Air Asia - even that, they should have said something.
5. When Swiss Air was under heavy fire, the pilot was still managed to communicate.

Loss of cabin pressure like the Helios or Payne Stewart flights is a possibility
 
theaviator380
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:46 am

RIP all who perished in this tragedy, thoughts with their family members, friends.

Is there any news on search mission? have they sent Navy, Air Force search Planes around area where it supposed to have crashed? How was weather like at the time of crash and how is the weather at sea to aid the search mission?

Thanks.
 
CANPILOT
Posts: 102
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:46 am

Slightly off topic but is anyone else watching CNN? Why is their aviation guy Richard Quest so dramatic with everything he says? He is literally repeating the same points, but just yelling them louder each time they put him on.
 
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Buyantukhaa
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:47 am

Quoting aerorobnz (Reply 41):
Lithium Ion battery fire perhaps?
Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 42):
Loss of cabin pressure like the Helios or Payne Stewart flights is a possibility

Neither option would explain the sudden loss of ADS-B signal without anything unusual happening before.
I scratch my head, therefore I am.
 
LH526
Posts: 1990
Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2000 2:23 am

RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:47 am

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 42):
Loss of cabin pressure like the Helios or Payne Stewart flights is a possibility
Quoting aerorobnz (Reply 41):
Lithium Ion battery fire perhaps? Given how many people every day travel with them (in their luggage yes, we intercept dozens a day due to people not following instruction), if it was in luggage and caught fire they might have burned out prior to being able to land
Quoting gia777 (Reply 38):
2. Pilot Suicide.

But that all would leave at least some time for a distress call or notable movement / deviation on FR24. The FR signal just cuts off in cruise altitude ... I highly doubt a pilot would switch off the CBs for such a scenario though.
Trittst im Morgenrot daher, seh ich dich im Strahlenmeer ...
 
RyanAirB737
Posts: 71
Joined: Sat May 08, 2004 6:52 am

RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:48 am

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 42):

That would explain the aircraft crashing and having its last position be where it crashed, but it disappeared at cruise altitude which means something sudden and catastrophic occurred, no?
 
AR385
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Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 8:25 am

RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:48 am

Quoting gia777 (Reply 38):
2. Pilot Suicide.

Unless the pilot managed to suddenly make the plane disappear from radar while on the way down, unlikely

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 42):
Loss of cabin pressure like the Helios or Payne Stewart flights is a possibility

Both planes remained within primary and secondary radar contact all the way to the last few moments. There was never a sudden disappearance from secondary. Both were intact until they hit the ground.

This is an entirely differen, although well known, type of tragedy.
 
dc863
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:52 am

Quoting CANPILOT (Reply 44):
Why is their aviation guy Richard Quest so dramatic with everything he says? He is literally repeating the same points, but just yelling them louder each time they put him on.

Richard is trying to remain relevant I'd gather. After all he's working at a network that's losing money hand over fist. At least we don't see Don Lemon theorizing that Egyptair was nabbed by an E.T.
 
Bongodog1964
Posts: 3542
Joined: Wed Oct 18, 2006 6:29 am

RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:52 am

Quoting dc863 (Reply 37):
Quoting Aither (Reply 35):
-I think it's safe to rule out Buddhist, Jews, Hindies, and Christian integrists.

It's either the Muslim Brotherhood or IS.

There's an awful lots of highly disaffected people in this World, I'm fairly sure they aren't all Muslims.

Back on track:

Do pilots normally report when they are beginning their descent ? On the basis that there was no last report form the plane, this would make a mechanical failure due to the commencement of the descent unlikely.

If the plane was as reported only 20 minutes out from Cairo it is likely that the debris has ended up in relatively shallow water, which will aid the investigation.

Was the plane on schedule or delayed ? If it was on time, and it was an explosive device it would be a close run thing to programme it to go off at this stage of a 3 hour or so flight. Speedy departure from CDG and a good tailwind and it could have been on the ground at Cairo at this point.
 
AR385
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Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 8:25 am

RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:52 am

Quoting CANPILOT (Reply 44):
He is literally repeating the same points, but just yelling them louder each time they put him on.

That´s just his style. You should see him in his finance correspondent role...but, to be fair, he is amongst the most knowledgeable and experienced CNN employee on aviation matters. Once you get past his stridency.
 
TheCommodore
Posts: 3458
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:53 am

Quoting CANPILOT (Reply 44):
Why is their aviation guy Richard Quest so dramatic with everything he says?

He comes across as such a drama queen I find.

Quoting CANPILOT (Reply 44):
He is literally repeating the same points, but just yelling them louder each time they put him on.

Wel he's got to draw it out for the TV, thats why he's employed, but anyway, we don't know much at this stage, so theres not a lot to talk about, it only conjecture at this moment.
“At first, they'll only dislike what you say, but the more correct you start sounding the more they'll dislike you.”
 
TheCommodore
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:56 am

Quoting LH526 (Reply 53):
Wouldn't it be around 6 on such a flight? Why 10? Could the other 4-5 be PADs / deadheads?

And I just heard that there were 3 security men aboard. Isn that a lot on one flight, or is it considered high risk ?
“At first, they'll only dislike what you say, but the more correct you start sounding the more they'll dislike you.”
 
theaviator380
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:57 am

Quoting LH526 (Reply 53):

5 Crew, 3 Security agents and 2 Pilots. I think someone mentioned this in thread 1.
 
dc863
Posts: 1480
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 1999 10:52 am

RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:57 am

Quoting TheCommodore (Reply 54):
And I just heard that there were 3 security men aboard. Isn that a lot on one flight, or is it considered high risk ?

Perhaps they were escorting a high value prisoner or passenger?
 
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pvjin
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 8:57 am

Quoting gia777 (Reply 38):

1. A bomb could have been inside the plane.
2. Pilot Suicide.
3. A major engine / aircraft component failure.

I can't think of anything else beside those 3, otherwise, the pilot for some reason should have said something, anything.

   One of these most definitely, assuming the aircraft actually crashed more or less where it disappeared, I wonder if MH370 copycat would be possible with an A320?

My vote definitely goes to the bomb theory. Sad to read these news after waking up, RIP all victims.
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
mila
Posts: 52
Joined: Mon May 16, 2011 10:47 am

RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 9:04 am

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 50):

If the plane was as reported only 20 minutes out from Cairo it is likely that the debris has ended up in relatively shallow water, which will aid the investigation.

Was not the flight 270 km from the coast and the sea 3000 meters deep, have you not read the thread?
 
CANPILOT
Posts: 102
Joined: Fri May 06, 2016 7:40 pm

RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 9:05 am

Quoting pvjin (Reply 57):

Quoting gia777 (Reply 38):

1. A bomb could have been inside the plane.
2. Pilot Suicide.
3. A major engine / aircraft component failure.

I can't think of anything else beside those 3, otherwise, the pilot for some reason should have said something, anything.

   One of these most definitely, assuming the aircraft actually crashed more or less where it disappeared, I wonder if MH370 copycat would be possible with an A320?

My vote definitely goes to the bomb theory. Sad to read these news after waking up, RIP all victims.

As some others mentioned before, although unlikely, it could also be a missile that took it down, again personally I think its very unlikely but can't be ruled out.
 
AustrianZRH
Posts: 853
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 9:09 am

Quoting theaviator380 (Reply 43):
Why is their aviation guy Richard Quest so dramatic with everything he says?

Let me take this one step further: why is Richard Quest their aviation guy? Only because he hosted the "Business Traveller" and has seen some planes from the inside? Can't stand him even in business reporting, but in aviation reporting he's even worse.
WARNING! The post above should be taken with a grain of salt! Furthermore, it may be slightly biased towards A.
 
RickNRoll
Posts: 1863
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:30 am

RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 9:14 am

Quoting CANPILOT (Reply 58):
As some others mentioned before, although unlikely, it could also be a missile that took it down, again personally I think its very unlikely but can't be ruled out.

A BUK type of missile is the only thing that can get that high. They are huge, require trained staff and a launcher that can be spotted by a spy satellite.
 
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pvjin
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 9:21 am

Quoting RickNRoll (Reply 60):
A BUK type of missile is the only thing that can get that high. They are huge, require trained staff and a launcher that can be spotted by a spy satellite.

True, and let's also notice the location of the disappearance. No war zone, just bunch of Greek islands nearby. Unless ISIS has captured a BUK system and then loaded it into the deck of a cargo ship no way it was shot down by a ground based missile system. Air to air missile would thus be much more likely in the extremely small possibility that it was brought down by a missile, maybe like in the case of Itavia 870?
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
L0VE2FLY
Posts: 1002
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 9:28 am

Quoting winterlight (Reply 8):
Quoting CANPILOT (Reply 7):True, but are the other main news networks really any better?
No. Maintsream is all the same.

   A major network here showed a picture of an EgyptAir 737 as an A320! The news anchor who read the story is a pilot himself, he probably knew it was the wrong aircraft.
 
CANPILOT
Posts: 102
Joined: Fri May 06, 2016 7:40 pm

RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 9:34 am

Quoting pvjin (Reply 59):

Quoting RickNRoll (Reply 60):
A BUK type of missile is the only thing that can get that high. They are huge, require trained staff and a launcher that can be spotted by a spy satellite.

True, and let's also notice the location of the disappearance. No war zone, just bunch of Greek islands nearby. Unless ISIS has captured a BUK system and then loaded it into the deck of a cargo ship no way it was shot down by a ground based missile system. Air to air missile would thus be much more likely in the extremely small possibility that it was brought down by a missile, maybe like in the case of Itavia 870?

I agree it is very very unlikely. But even the bomb theory would mean someone with access to the plane planted the bomb at CDG. If they had the means to do that at a European airport which basically every major airline travels to, why not plant it on an western airline's A380 to do more damage (assuming this is ISIS or even another terrorist group)? Why plant it on a Egypt Air A320 with only 66 passengers? If they have the means to smuggle a bomb into CDG and enough time and access to plant it on a plane, why this one?
 
RickNRoll
Posts: 1863
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:30 am

RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 9:41 am

Quoting CANPILOT (Reply 61):
If they have the means to smuggle a bomb into CDG and enough time and access to plant it on a plane, why this one?

If it is a bombing by ISIS, the number of people killed doesn't really seem to matter much. This is all over the news.
 
dc863
Posts: 1480
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 1999 10:52 am

RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 9:42 am

Quoting CANPILOT (Reply 61):
Why plant it on a Egypt Air A320 with only 66 passengers?

If it was the Muslim Brotherhood they have an ongoing war with Egyptian forces in the Sinai. Their target is the anything state owned by Egypt like the airline. What better way to hit back at the Sisi gov't and damage the tourist industry.
 
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N776AU
Posts: 1002
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 9:42 am

This has to be deliberate. A320s don't just fall out of the sky.
Careful, doors are closing, and will not reopen. Please wait for the next train.
 
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77west
Posts: 954
Joined: Sat Jun 13, 2009 11:52 am

RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 9:47 am

Quoting N776AU (Reply 64):
This has to be deliberate. A320s don't just fall out of the sky.

To put that in perspective, neither do A330's, usually.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447
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