Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing

reffado · Thu May 19, 2016 12:39 pm

As per AvHerald, passengers were: 30 Egyptian, 15 French, 2 Iraqis, 1 British, 1 Belgian, 1 Kuwaiti, 1 Canadian, 1 Chadian, 1 Portuguese, 1 Sudanese, 1 Algerian and 1 Saudi.

Please excuse if this has been said. These threads move way too fast (and that's not a bad thing, just makes it hard to keep track).

My condolences to the families of those affected.

runway23 · Thu May 19, 2016 12:48 pm

Anyone care to confirm, but I believe every time IS has claimed they were behind an attack they subsequently were found to have been behind it.

fallap · Thu May 19, 2016 12:52 pm

Please, let it be anything but terrorism

redadeco · Thu May 19, 2016 1:02 pm

Now listening to French radio, Greeks have found 2 floating objects 70km SE of the last known position.

neutronstar73 · Thu May 19, 2016 1:02 pm

Quoting VapourTrails (Reply 103):
Thank you for this. It is an excellent resource, and I have no problems live streaming it either.

No worries, Dude. France24's news coverage on everything is so much better than CNN. Good sports, great weather, world news updates and it streams easily. Try it on you mobile phone, too.

NHK World is another good resource.

pecevanne · Thu May 19, 2016 1:03 pm

CNN said some few debris found.

flyingturtle · Thu May 19, 2016 1:04 pm

Quoting runway23 (Reply 116):
Anyone care to confirm, but I believe every time IS has claimed they were behind an attack they subsequently were found to have been behind it.

IS and Al Qaeda have still not said anything... maybe Muslim Brotherhood? But they're not really known for terrorism, though they're labeled as terrorists by a few governments.

David

enilria · Thu May 19, 2016 1:04 pm

Quoting reffado (Reply 115):
Quoting enilria (Reply 112):

As per AvHerald, passengers were: 30 Egyptian, 15 French, 2 Iraqis, 1 British, 1 Belgian, 1 Kuwaiti, 1 Canadian, 1 Chadian, 1 Portuguese, 1 Sudanese, 1 Algerian and 1 Saudi.

Please excuse if this has been said. These threads move way too fast (and that's not a bad thing, just makes it hard to keep track).

My condolences to the families of those affected.

Quoting enilria (Reply 112):
the plane would be mostly filled with European tourists,

The plane would appear to not be filled with European tourists, BUT the terrorists would hopefully not have a manifest of passports and regardless of what was actually the case, most people would think a flight like that would have a lot of Pyramids tourists.

Quoting runway23 (Reply 116):

Anyone care to confirm, but I believe every time IS has claimed they were behind an attack they subsequently were found to have been behind it.

Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 114):
The very same "ball of fire" spotted by some people in a nearby island could be a meteor that hit the aircraft.

I'm not sure it is 100%, BUT Egypt also has a dubious and extensive reputation of trying to deflect responsibility onto parties that will lessen the impact on their own economy of the accident. Based upon that I would expect they will start trying to say this was mechanical failure with haste. I think we all know that mid-flight mechanical failure is highly unlikely without an outside force.

Every crash has a report of a ball of fire. Even if there was a ball of fire, I'm not sure how that establishes anything other than a plane crashed. Terrorism and ball of fire are in no way incompatible.

R.I.P.

Luxair · Thu May 19, 2016 1:05 pm

Quoting awthompson (Reply 113):

Exactly my thoughts moreover they possible try to destabilize the country. ISIS would have an obvious advantage in a destabilized Egypt! They will hit those countries one after the other. The next on their list will be Saudi Arabia. Mark my words! Accept my apologizes for hijacking this thread.

[Edited 2016-05-19 06:06:02]

[Edited 2016-05-19 06:06:39]

GlenP · Thu May 19, 2016 1:06 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 112):
Apart from the fact there was a claim already from IS reported above in the thread

Sorry but according to the latest BBC update: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-africa-36328976 ISIS / DAESH have not claimed responsibility as yet. Certainly some of those who post on social media in support of this vile group have asked whether, or expressed a hope that, it was a terrorist act by said group, but there has been no claim on their "official" outlets.

enilria · Thu May 19, 2016 1:16 pm

Quoting GlenP (Reply 124):
Quoting enilria (Reply 112):
Apart from the fact there was a claim already from IS reported above in the thread

Sorry but according to the latest BBC update: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-africa-36328976 ISIS / DAESH have not claimed responsibility as yet. Certainly some of those who post on social media in support of this vile group have asked whether, or expressed a hope that, it was a terrorist act by said group, but there has been no claim on their "official" outlets.

In past instances like the Russian crash, was it done in their "official outlets" first? It seems like this same discussion occurs every time about whether the claims are valid and then later they are.

washingtonflyer · Thu May 19, 2016 1:22 pm

Quoting spartanmjf (Reply 101):

Yeah, that part of the Med is very heavily traffic laden. You're seeing registered ships, cruisers, fishing vessels, cargo carriers, etc.

Add to that a ton of small fishing vessels and large pleasure yachts, and there are a lot of eyes. Not to mention that area is a known area for migrant flows - resulting in Coast guard presence.

Only issue of concern will be that (IIRC) the water there is pretty deep and if you have broken up wreckage, recovery won't be the easiest. Doable, but its going to take work. The French will probably have to lead the recovery as its likely beyond the ability of the Egyptians.

GlenP · Thu May 19, 2016 1:27 pm

In the case of the Metrojet crash, Ansar Beit al Maqdis, the terrorist group affiliated to ISIS that is operating in North Sinai, released their claims, with a video clip purporting to show the aircraft exploding, via an "official" source.

As the BBC states, at the moment, no such terrorist organisation has claimed responsibility for the loss of this aircraft.

It should be pointed out that the Egyptian Civil Aviation Minister has stated that it is too early to jump to a conclusion that this was an instance of technical failure &, for the moment, they are working on the basis that a terrorist attack is the most likely cause.

Obviously, this stance will either be reinforced or discarded as the investigation proceeds & evidence to either support or refute it comes to light.

D L X · Thu May 19, 2016 1:40 pm

Quoting pecevanne (Reply 120):

CNN said some few debris found.

Thank you.

There's a lot of chaff on this thread without wheat. Thanks for supplying some wheat.

Flighty · Thu May 19, 2016 1:43 pm

Quoting awthompson (Reply 113):
Also, the choice of return leg would be to put further fear into Parisians and at least for a while implicate CDG security.

Horribly chilling if so.

Implications strike the heart of the industry and directly impact the entire West.

May have something to do with TSA lines lately.

Boeing747_600 · Thu May 19, 2016 1:45 pm

Quoting CANPILOT (Reply 41):
Why is their aviation guy Richard Quest so dramatic with everything he says? He is literally repeating the same points, but just yelling them louder each time they put him on.

I wouldn't really call Quest an aviation guy. He has some access to the airlines, but they are mostly regarding travel related issues. He made quite a fool of himself with his early coverage of MH-370. The two people on the CNN panel that know what they're talking about are Mary Schiavo and David Soucie. I haven't seen Jim Nance. He's their best.

YoungMans · Thu May 19, 2016 1:54 pm

There seems to be a lot more to this than has so far been contemplated. See the URL below ....

And I quote RT:
"13:30 GMT
The crew of the missing flight were threatened days before the incident, claims Sharif Mehera, a former EgyptAir pilot, who describes himself as a close friend of the captain of the Airbus A320 that disappeared.

He told (LINK) LifeNews that someone wrote a menacing message on the hull of one of the planes.

The message was in Arabic, and read: “the next murder will be the flight number SU-GCC,” Mehera said, adding that it was exactly the flight number of the missing plane and that all security services were aware of this incident."
End of quote.

https://www.rt.com/news/343512-egyptair-missing-flight-search/

airportugal310 · Thu May 19, 2016 1:56 pm

Quoting Boeing747_600 (Reply 130):
The two people on the CNN panel that know what they're talking about are Mary Schiavo

Can't tell if you are joking or...?

enilria · Thu May 19, 2016 1:57 pm

Quoting Flighty (Reply 129):
May have something to do with TSA lines lately.

...or what the now will be...

theaviator380 · Thu May 19, 2016 1:59 pm

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 132):
And I quote RT:
"13:30 GMT
The crew of the missing flight were threatened days before the incident, claims Sharif Mehera, a former EgyptAir pilot, who describes himself as a close friend of the captain of the Airbus A320 that disappeared.

He told (LINK) LifeNews that someone wrote a menacing message on the hull of one of the planes.

The message was in Arabic, and read: “the next murder will be the flight number SU-GCC,” Mehera said, adding that it was exactly the flight number of the missing plane and that all security services were aware of this incident."
End of quote.

That's very scary if it's true. What would be the motive? this is going to be very complex investigation. Hope at least they find debris asap.

reffado · Thu May 19, 2016 2:01 pm

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 132):

Interesting, but questionable IMHO. Nevermind that that is by a flight number but a registration. The main issue is that, unless it was someone with considerable access to EgyptAir's files, wouldn't it have been close to impossible to know where that particular plane would be at the desired date, and even harder to know who would be crewing it?

flyingturtle · Thu May 19, 2016 2:04 pm

Quoting theaviator380 (Reply 135):
Hope at least they find debris asap.

Reports of debris and bodies are already coming in. But no pictures yet.

http://metro.co.uk/2016/05/19/debris...r-crashed-egyptair-flight-5892705/

David

[Edited 2016-05-19 07:06:14]

enilria · Thu May 19, 2016 2:05 pm

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 132):
The message was in Arabic, and read: “the next murder will be the flight number SU-GCC,” Mehera said, adding that it was exactly the flight number of the missing plane and that all security services were aware of this incident."
End of quote.

Quoting theaviator380 (Reply 135):
That's very scary if it's true.

I wonder if it was also predicted in the ancient Mayan texts. That report seems really, really sketchy.

inflightVideo · Thu May 19, 2016 2:20 pm

Quoting reffado (Reply 136):
wouldn't it have been close to impossible to know where that particular plane would be at the desired date, and even harder to know who would be crewing it?

Who says it was the route that was targeted ,and not the aircraft itself? Could have just been a coincidence that it just so happened to be flying from Paris when it went off.

inflightVideo · Thu May 19, 2016 2:26 pm

First pictures emerging of debris:

http://twitter.com/SHAWSHANK5/status/733291084470714369/photo/1

Moose135 · Thu May 19, 2016 2:27 pm

Quoting inflightvideo (Reply 139):
Who says it was the route that was targeted ,and not the aircraft itself? Could have just been a coincidence that it just so happened to be flying from Paris when it went off.

Why would you target a specific airframe? Other than planting a bomb in a random aircraft and letting it go off whenever it happened to go off, what do you gain? It's not like the same crew flies it all the time and you are looking to do something to that particular crew.

hivue · Thu May 19, 2016 2:34 pm

At this point, when we are strictly speculating and know absolutely nothing about what caused this accident, what worries me the most as simply a member of the flying public is not terrorists, bombs, missiles, pilot suicide, etc. but rather the possibility of another flight crew unable to handle a high altitude jet upset event.

CO953 · Thu May 19, 2016 2:53 pm

Quoting reffado (Reply 136):
Interesting, but questionable IMHO. Nevermind that that is by a flight number but a registration. The main issue is that, unless it was someone with considerable access to EgyptAir's files, wouldn't it have been close to impossible to know where that particular plane would be at the desired date, and even harder to know who would be crewing it?

Just for discussion's sake:

Not if it's an inside airport/airline job, IMO. Of course, these "reports" could be unreliable.... but threatening a specific aircrew and also a specific aircraft registration would certainly strike a lot of terror in that it would suggest an embedded cell or bad actor(s) inside the airport or airline - rendering passenger screening useless.

[Edited 2016-05-19 07:54:46]

seahawk · Thu May 19, 2016 2:59 pm

Quoting CO953 (Reply 143):
Just for discussion's sake:

Not if it's an inside airport/airline job, IMO. Of course, these "reports" could be unreliable.... but threatening a specific aircrew and also a specific aircraft registration would certainly strike a lot of terror in that it would suggest an embedded cell or bad actor(s) inside the airport or airline - rendering passenger screening useless.

And if confirmed would probably keep most of the crews from flying but would guarantee that the airline would be black listed in the West.

YoungMans · Thu May 19, 2016 3:13 pm

Quoting Moose135 (Reply 141):
what do you gain?

Proving a point (capability) for a future black-mail project.

a380787 · Thu May 19, 2016 3:17 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 138):
I wonder if it was also predicted in the ancient Mayan texts. That report seems really, really sketchy.

I second that. If the authorities knew about it and still happened right under their nose, there needs to be a serious inquiry of why nothing was done to stop it (all based on the far-fetched assumption that the quote is real).

D L X · Thu May 19, 2016 3:20 pm

The speculation to fact ratio on this thread is approximately 145:1.

Where are we on the search efforts? Has there been any definitive evidence that the plane or plane pieces have been spotted?

DocLightning · Thu May 19, 2016 3:22 pm

Quoting reffado (Reply 136):

Interesting, but questionable IMHO. Nevermind that that is by a flight number but a registration. The main issue is that, unless it was someone with considerable access to EgyptAir's files, wouldn't it have been close to impossible to know where that particular plane would be at the desired date, and even harder to know who would be crewing it?

FR24 has predicted Reg numbers usually at least 24-48 hours before a given flight.

Quoting hivue (Reply 142):
At this point, when we are strictly speculating and know absolutely nothing about what caused this accident, what worries me the most as simply a member of the flying public is not terrorists, bombs, missiles, pilot suicide, etc. but rather the possibility of another flight crew unable to handle a high altitude jet upset event.

None of the data that we have at this time point to that as a likely cause. I

Both Egyptian and Egyptair officials are confirming that terrorism is the most likely cause.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/liv...air-plane-cairo-paris-live-updates

Moose135 · Thu May 19, 2016 3:25 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 148):
Both Egyptian and Egyptair officials are confirming that terrorism is the most likely cause.

It may very well turn out to be, but I'd rather wait for some confirmation from a source without a vested interest in pointing blame away from the airline/crew.

DIRECTFLT · Thu May 19, 2016 3:29 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 137):
Reports of debris and bodies are already coming in. But no pictures yet.

http://metro.co.uk/2016/05/19/debris...2705/

Also this report:

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-n...flight-ms804-missing-radar-8003055

DIRECTFLT · Thu May 19, 2016 3:31 pm

Quoting Moose135 (Reply 149):
Quoting DocLightning (Reply 148):
Both Egyptian and Egyptair officials are confirming that terrorism is the most likely cause.

It may very well turn out to be, but I'd rather wait for some confirmation from a source without a vested interest in pointing blame away from the airline/crew.

A possibility that this was death by suicide, like the German flight?

DocLightning · Thu May 19, 2016 3:31 pm

Along the terrorism line, there are some possibilities:

1) Device was concealed in the aircraft some time ago, possibly by maintenance staff or during maintenance.
2) Device was planted at a station prior to arrival at CDG earlier that day (TUN, CAI, etc.).
3) Device was planted at CDG.

Then there was detonation.
1) Someone aboard detonated the device.
2) Device was on a timer.
3) Someone on the surface (presumably in a boat) detonated the device a-la PA103.
4) Something really elaborate such as the device knew where it was and was meant to detonate over deep water in precisely such a location as to make any investigation as difficult as possible. Was this aircraft WiFi equipped?

hivue · Thu May 19, 2016 3:33 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 148):
Both Egyptian and Egyptair officials are confirming that terrorism is the most likely cause.

Wow. The investigation is half done already.

awthompson · Thu May 19, 2016 3:34 pm

Luxair

Unfortunately you may be correct in your assertions.

Quoting runway23 (Reply 116):

Anyone care to confirm, but I believe every time IS has claimed they were behind an attack they subsequently were found to have been behind it.

ISIS pretty well mean what they say so I believe you are close to the mark.

Quoting GlenP (Reply 127):

In the case of the Metrojet crash, Ansar Beit al Maqdis, the terrorist group affiliated to ISIS that is operating in North Sinai, released their claims, with a video clip purporting to show the aircraft exploding, via an "official" source.

Yes, I've studied that video hard and I believe it is authentic. There are two different camera angles and both concur. There's no other crash in the past that it could have been.

http://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/articl...-den-Anschlag-auf-Flug-7K9268.html

Quoting hivue (Reply 142):

At this point, when we are strictly speculating and know absolutely nothing about what caused this accident, what worries me the most as simply a member of the flying public is not terrorists, bombs, missiles, pilot suicide, etc. but rather the possibility of another flight crew unable to handle a high altitude jet upset event.

Yes, there's certainly been a few of those in recent years. However this latest incident does not fit that possibility. We can see this ourselves on flight radar websites. There was no indication of any upset then instantaneously the ID disappears. Primary radar apparently shows the 'hulk' turning and plunging but only after the aircraft's systems are rendered useless by a very sudden catastrophe with only an explosion by detonation or major fuselage beakup by other means as possibilities.

a380787 · Thu May 19, 2016 3:38 pm

Quoting D L X (Reply 147):
The speculation to fact ratio on this thread is approximately 145:1.

Educated speculation helps reduce unlikely scenarios and focus on plausible hypotheses. If we can only comment once we know all the truth, we'll still be waiting to discuss MH370, 2 years 2 months later and still counting.

mila · Thu May 19, 2016 3:40 pm

Can not a GPS have been used for trigger a possible bomb?

[Edited 2016-05-19 08:40:55]

Aesma · Thu May 19, 2016 3:41 pm

Quoting DIRECTFLT (Reply 151):
A possibility that this was death by suicide, like the German flight?

Or EgyptAir Flight 990 long before that.

Western727 · Thu May 19, 2016 3:41 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 152):
3) Someone on the surface (presumably in a boat) detonated the device a-la PA103.

I thought the PA103 bomb was a timed device along with a barometer to ensure detonation at altitude?

flyingturtle · Thu May 19, 2016 3:47 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 152):
4) Something really elaborate such as the device knew where it was

Accelerometers have become tiny. Somebody with a degree in electronic engineering could build a poor man's INS. (And I wonder if one day there will be hand-held inertial navigation systems...)

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 152):
3) Someone on the surface (presumably in a boat) detonated the device a-la PA103.

Err.... in PA103, a timer was used. One from a Swiss supplier.

David

Faro · Thu May 19, 2016 3:47 pm

My heartfelt condolences to the families of all victims. This is doubly tragic for the human loss and Egypt's crippled and struggling economy as well as its reputation in terms of airport security. But of course it's far too early to say anything definite or causative.

Draconian measures should now be adopted to improve security checks and procedures if this turns out to be linked to terrorism.

Faro

enilria · Thu May 19, 2016 3:49 pm

Quoting D L X (Reply 147):
The speculation to fact ratio on this thread is approximately 145:1.

Still better than CNN by 83.81%

Quoting DIRECTFLT (Reply 151):
A possibility that this was death by suicide, like the German flight?

Very unlikely if you are talking about the pilots

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 152):
1) Device was concealed in the aircraft some time ago, possibly by maintenance staff or during maintenance.

Unlikely

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 152):
2) Device was planted at a station prior to arrival at CDG earlier that day (TUN, CAI, etc.).

Fairly likely, but wouldn't there be an inspection on arrival in CDG? How detailed is that?

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 152):
3) Device was planted at CDG.

This is the scariest possibility.

Quoting hivue (Reply 153):

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 148):
Both Egyptian and Egyptair officials are confirming that terrorism is the most likely cause.

Wow. The investigation is half done already.

That's surprising given past Egyptian blame deflection.

awthompson · Thu May 19, 2016 3:50 pm

Quoting DIRECTFLT (Reply 151):
A possibility that this was death by suicide, like the German flight?

Well, difficult. A rogue crew member would have to have firstly overpowered the other cockpit crew member or have waited until the other member had gone to the rest room. Then turn off the transponder, ADSB transmitter etc, then perform the act very very quickly. In the German Wings case, the rogue pilot just left the transponder and ADSB on for all to see. Yes, it is a possibility but does not look very likely given what else we know.

Deanger · Thu May 19, 2016 3:53 pm

I've never seen the authorities go to terrorism so fast... (or maybe that's the media saying the authorities are saying that)

Where's the "let's take a moment" and not get ahead ourselves?

rbrunner · Thu May 19, 2016 3:53 pm

Quoting DIRECTFLT (Reply 151):
A possibility that this was death by suicide, like the German flight?

I personally doubt it, since the Germanwings flight was contacted many times by ATC and received no response. That was not the case in today's crash. I realize that I could be completely wrong, though.

Viper911 · Thu May 19, 2016 3:54 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 161):
Fairly likely, but wouldn't there be an inspection on arrival in CDG? How detailed is that?

An airplane has so many places where one can hide something, Places that are never checked on everyday basis.
All you need is a bomb of a size of soda can, now, where could you hide that on an airplane.

Viper911

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