Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing

reffado · Thu May 19, 2016 11:18 pm

Quoting B747forever (Reply 19):
Someone over at flyertalk made the point that it is exactly 804 days since MH370 disappeared. 804 days later and we have MS 804 disappearing.

I would say this is one of those creepy coincidences. But unfortunately, while I'm not one to believe in elaborate conspiracies, aviation accidents - especially involving terrorism - have become more and more sketchy with the years.

eal · Thu May 19, 2016 11:20 pm

Quoting btfarrwm (Reply 20):

Completely outside of Israeli airspace? They usually wait for them to enter (or at least occupied territory) to do that. Before I get flamed: Libyan Arab Airlines FL.114

YVRLTN · Thu May 19, 2016 11:32 pm

Quoting Av8rDAL (Reply 202):
If by chance it is discovered that a passenger smuggled a weapon on board and overpowered the crew, then passenger security controls at CDG and presumably all of France’s airports would be proven compromised.

If we assume for a moment the Russian report in post 194 is accurate, there were 2 Iraqi passengers listed as on board. It is not outside the realm of possibility that as bombs can be made of fairly routine every day items, two persons could work in tandem and one could have bought some items and the other one the rest. They can easily get a can of pop on board from the drinks trolley. Its quite possible no security measures would ever pick this up.

aklrno · Thu May 19, 2016 11:32 pm

Quoting btfarrwm (Reply 20):
Maybe the plane was hijacked a la 9/11 and the left turn seen by the Greeks was interpreted as a turn towards Israel and the Israelis shot it down.

I was once lucky enough to see the birth of a gazelle in Tanzania. Now I've seen the birth of a conspiracy theory.

ACDC8 · Thu May 19, 2016 11:32 pm

Quoting B747forever (Reply 19):
Someone over at flyertalk made the point that it is exactly 804 days since MH370 disappeared. 804 days later and we have MS 804 disappearing.

March 8, 2014 to May 19, 2016 is 803 using the online calendars.

Revelation · Thu May 19, 2016 11:39 pm

Quoting SOBHI51 (Reply 14):
Just heard, a dear lady friend ( from school), her husband, son and his wife were on the plane.

Sorry for your loss, SOBHI51....

SOBHI51 · Thu May 19, 2016 11:47 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 26):

Thank you

Tangowhisky · Fri May 20, 2016 12:20 am

There have been many accidents similar to this where it was later found that the crew mismanaged a minor situation. A dark night over the sea is a perfect condition to further disorient pilots. Flash AirFlight 604 (B737-300) crashed into the Red Sea shortly after takeoff from Sharm el-Sheik. The NTSB and the BEA concluded that the pilot suffered spatial disorientation. Adam Air Flight 574 B737-400 with a single IRU malfunction at high altitude, and Air Asia Flight 162 with a rudder limiter malfunction also at high altitude distracted the crews from flying the aircraft, and both made significant recovery errors resulting in crashing and killing all occupants. Gulf Air Flight 072 in 2000, also an A320, crashed after a go-around to Bahrain Internation at night into the sea also due to pilot disorientation. The crew of Egyptair Flight 804 may have become distracted with an anomaly and made a simple situation worse. It is likely the airplane broke apart at some point after departure from controlled flight during the descent.

The plane was 20 minutes from Cairo on a 4 hour plus flight and seems to me unlikely to wait that long to detonate a bomb.

[Edited 2016-05-19 17:22:41]

wjcandee · Fri May 20, 2016 12:32 am

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 28):
There have been many accidents similar to this where it was later found that the crew mismanaged a minor situation. A dark night over the sea is a perfect condition to further disorient pilots

It does not appear that the thing broadcast ADS-B all the way down in a death spiral or some such. It appears that ADS-B quit, and some primary radar estimates followed the aircraft briefly as it (or pieces of it) strayed from the previous track, then disappeared as well. If there was ADS-B all the way down, then yeah maybe. That there was not makes loss of control much less likely, albeit possible, as are all things at this point. But it's not unreasonable to handicap.

eal · Fri May 20, 2016 12:33 am

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 28):

Unless A) the bomb was inside the aircraft and set to detonate at any random time or B) it was set to detonate over Cairo and it detonated prematurely. Although everyone is pointing at terrorism, the lack of any group claiming responsibility makes me think it might not be.

jpetekyxmd80 · Fri May 20, 2016 12:42 am

Quoting eal (Reply 30):

Unless A) the bomb was inside the aircraft and set to detonate at any random time or B) it was set to detonate over Cairo and it detonated prematurely.

Interesting thought. The flight was running 20-30 min behind schedule. Based on the earlier flight times this week, the time of detonation would typically have happened on approach and somewhat near/over the city.

reffado · Fri May 20, 2016 12:55 am

Wasn't the plane in maintenance a day or two ago? What about the hypothesis of someone smuggling a device in during the procedures?

Tangowhisky · Fri May 20, 2016 1:03 am

Quoting jpetekyxmd80 (Reply 31):
Unless A) the bomb was inside the aircraft and set to detonate at any random time or B) it was set to detonate over Cairo and it detonated prematurely.

Not that I would want to get into a terrorist's mind, but why pick a flight with such small loads. The plane was 1/3rd full. Random can mean when the plane could be parked with no one on board. For Option B, it is difficult to reliably make a GPS based device that is hidden in the plane.

Quoting wjcandee (Reply 29):
It does not appear that the thing broadcast ADS-B all the way down in a death spiral or some such. It appears that ADS-B quit, and some primary radar estimates followed the aircraft briefly as it (or pieces of it) strayed from the previous track, then disappeared as well.

The information is very sketch between what was from secondary radar (ADS-B) and what was from primary radar. Not sure primary radar information is that reliable at that location. Most high speed spirals did have the tail break off.

UA787DEN · Fri May 20, 2016 1:05 am

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 33):
For Option B, it is difficult to reliably make a GPS based device that is hidden in the plane.

It may have been timer-based, as another poster said, the flight was a bit behind schedule. Still, though, it doesn't seem like the best terrorist target situation as a whole

UA787DEN · Fri May 20, 2016 1:09 am

Quoting reffado (Reply 32):
Wasn't the plane in maintenance a day or two ago? What about the hypothesis of someone smuggling a device in during the procedures?

Yeah it was, but the day of the loss alone it already flown 3 or 4 legs. Would've had to be hidden somewhere pretty well. Anyone know what type of MX it was in for? A lot of the places it would be hidden would require a slightly heavier check.

jpetekyxmd80 · Fri May 20, 2016 1:10 am

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 33):
For Option B, it is difficult to reliably make a GPS based device that is hidden in the plane.

Didn't need to be a GPS device. Could be a simple crude time approximation.

Tangowhisky · Fri May 20, 2016 1:13 am

Quoting UA787DEN (Reply 34):
It may have been timer-based, as another poster said, the flight was a bit behind schedule. Still, though, it doesn't seem like the best terrorist target situation as a whole

Yeah maybe. To me if it was a bomb, I would say that someone inside detonated the device as soon as the airplane started the descent. That is the point where the plane is most distant from land during the entire flight and maybe this was studied. Again, I am holding back on the bomb theory and thinking along the lines of crew's loss of control.

litz · Fri May 20, 2016 1:21 am

Quoting a380787 (Reply 8):
In this case, Greece as a member of EU most likely will do a lot of assistance.

Almost every major Western (NATO) power maintains a Naval presence in the Med ... some a fairly good sized major fleet presence. As in possibly Aircraft Carrier + support fleet sized.

Countries that actually have shoreline on the Med obviously maintain a Naval presence as well -- it's their home turf, after all.

Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to find out Israel, in particular, has radar with enough definition in the area to track anything larger than larger than a single rivet all the way from cruise to the surface of the sea.

This thing will be found, it may take a day or two or three, but it will be found.

solarflyer22 · Fri May 20, 2016 1:25 am

Quoting jpetekyxmd80 (Reply 11):
It's rather shocking to me that no debris was found with a clear, whole day of searching a fairly precise area with a wealth of search vessels.

Me too. I've sailed off Crete and Karpathos a half dozen times and its congested waters with lots ships for tourism, trade and oil passing by. Also, filled with migrants to sadly.

Quoting SOBHI51 (Reply 14):
Just heard, a dear lady friend ( from school), her husband, son and his wife were on the plane.

May they rest in peace.

That's sad to hear. RIP.

Quoting UA787DEN (Reply 35):
Yeah it was, but the day of the loss alone it already flown 3 or 4 legs.

If something was planted in Eritrea or Tunisia they might have had time to bury it behind a panel. Its not hard to remove certain panels that arent inspected between flights.

Seems odd no group, not even ISIS, has claimed this. I have feeling this might be a bitter employee act or something. Not the usual ISIS stuff.

777Jet · Fri May 20, 2016 1:41 am

Quoting jpetekyxmd80 (Reply 31):
The flight was running 20-30 min behind schedule. Based on the earlier flight times this week, the time of detonation would typically have happened on approach and somewhat near/over the city.

That's the part of the flight when Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab tried to bring down Northwest 253.

LandSweetLand · Fri May 20, 2016 1:41 am

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 39):
Seems odd no group, not even ISIS, has claimed this. I have feeling this might be a bitter employee act or something. Not the usual ISIS stuff.

Didn't the first thread mention that either BBC or CNN was reporting that IS did claim responsibility? Was that another earlier falsity?

edit: it was post 10 in thread 2

[Edited 2016-05-19 18:45:01]

Aeri28 · Fri May 20, 2016 1:42 am

some keep mentioning the choice for a flight so sparsely filled.
These things are more than likely planned well in advance, like clockwork with a variety of people in various locations involved. If it was a terrorist attack, it's doubtful it was random and 'just decided'. If a terrorist attack, it has already got people talking, wondering, weighing conspiracy theories and scenarios. The damage has already been set in place. Would 60 more people on the plane have made a difference in its effect?

Aither · Fri May 20, 2016 2:00 am

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 39):
If something was planted in Eritrea or Tunisia they might have had time to bury it behind a panel. Its not hard to remove certain panels that arent inspected between flights.

Seems odd no group, not even ISIS, has claimed this. I have feeling this might be a bitter employee act or something. Not the usual ISIS stuff.

I find surprising to see so many comments suggesting a bomb could not be placed at CDG. The groundforce at CDG is massively muslim and reports show that many have been suspected of islamic extremism or to have links with islamic extremism. If a bomb has been placed, the most likely scenario is it has been placed at CDG.

Also many islamic attacks in the world were not directly ordered by ISIS but the terrorists claim these attacks under the "ISIS brand". ISIS is clearly asking to kill people wherever, whenever you can.

jreuschl · Fri May 20, 2016 2:21 am

Is there any way a suicidal pilot could all of a sudden make the plane spin out of control at once if they wanted?

GlenP · Fri May 20, 2016 2:21 am

As mentioned in the earlier, Pat 2 thread, although there were reports, possibly via one of the less reliable news outlets that ISIS / DAESH had claimed responsibility, it later transpired that this was actually twitter accounts by those who support this vile organisation expressing a hope that the group had brought the aircraft down.

No "official" ISIS / DAESH source (not even that of their North Sinai based affiliate has claimed responsibility.

tmu101 · Fri May 20, 2016 2:43 am

Regarding possible catastrophic failure scenarios could it have been a rear pressure bulkhead failure that took out the flight controls like Japan 123? Any idea of previous aft pressure bulkhead maintenance on this particular aircraft?

LovesCoffee · Fri May 20, 2016 2:48 am

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 28):
There have been many accidents similar to this where it was later found that the crew mismanaged a minor situation.

Thank you and yes, it is way too early for anyone to say with certainty what actually brought the 320 down. Speculation is fun, but it is just that - speculation. No debris, no bodies, no real facts yet. The only thing that surprises me is that it is taking so long to find anything, given the relative certainty of the accident location.

danvs · Fri May 20, 2016 2:50 am

I wonder if the investigation will try to recover the CVR and FDR which rest below +3000m (+9800ft) of water.
Yes, it's been done before (AF447), but then it was a French airline, with 72 French nationals onboard, and the aircraft was an Airbus 330.

rj777 · Fri May 20, 2016 2:55 am

Quoting danvs (Reply 48):
Yes, it's been done before (AF447), but then it was a French airline, with 72 French nationals onboard, and the aircraft was an Airbus 330.

What does the nationality or plane type have to do with it? If anything they should have an easier time finding the wreckage than MH370, since it's a much smaller area to search.

Moose135 · Fri May 20, 2016 3:00 am

Quoting danvs (Reply 48):
I wonder if the investigation will try to recover the CVR and FDR which rest below +3000m (+9800ft) of water.

Those are probably some of the first things they try to recover. They may well hold the key to determining what happened.

spacecadet · Fri May 20, 2016 3:13 am

Quoting jreuschl (Reply 44):
Is there any way a suicidal pilot could all of a sudden make the plane spin out of control at once if they wanted?

Sure, but it's kind of like a suicidal driver deciding to kill themselves by doing donuts on the expressway. It might work, but there are much more reliable ways of killing yourself in a car if that's the goal.

danvs · Fri May 20, 2016 3:14 am

Quoting rj777 (Reply 49):
What does the nationality or plane type have to do with it?

It's all about who will lead the investigation. The airline was not French, and the accident didn't take place over French territory. So, the BEA may assist the investigation, but in theory they are not required to do so.
AFAIK the Egyptians are the ones who will be responsible for the probe, and I'm not exactly sure they have the technical capabilities to get those boxes from that depth. Remember, it's not easy as getting something from 100ft of water.

[Edited 2016-05-19 20:15:08]

[Edited 2016-05-19 20:15:35]

solarflyer22 · Fri May 20, 2016 3:18 am

Quoting LandSweetLand (Reply 41):
Didn't the first thread mention that either BBC or CNN was reporting that IS did claim responsibility? Was that another earlier falsity?

They did, but on CNN as of 10PM EST US Gov said no one has claimed it.

Quoting jreuschl (Reply 44):
s there any way a suicidal pilot could all of a sudden make the plane spin out of control at once if they wanted?

Depends on the plane but I am assuming you dont have a lot personal experience with FBW planes. The answer is not really. You cannot fly the plane into a 12.5 G turn that would break it apart rapidly because the computers translating your control input to the rudders/ailerons wont allow it. Its outside their performance threshold. The Eurowings scenario is more likely on Airbus planes. Airbus planes also have different modes (i.e. cruise mode) where it will try to keep you above a certain altitude unless you change into landing mode for example.

This type of sudden breakup requires a structural failure, missile hit or bomb. Assuming the radar data was accurate.

Crete has a NATO base as well as Cyprus. I'm sure they picked up something.

redzeppelin · Fri May 20, 2016 3:19 am

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 37):
To me if it was a bomb, I would say that someone inside detonated the device as soon as the airplane started the descent. That is the point where the plane is most distant from land during the entire flight and maybe this was studied. Again, I am holding back on the bomb theory and thinking along the lines of crew's loss of control.

My first thought was that a passenger on the inbound flight to CDG from Cairo may have left something behind. Perhaps even somebody who connected in CAI from an outlying airport - what is the transfer procedure there?Either way, I'm sure that authorities will investigate every person known to have been aboard the aircraft recently.

dc863 · Fri May 20, 2016 3:26 am

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 33):
Not that I would want to get into a terrorist's mind, but why pick a flight with such small loads. The plane was 1/3rd full.

Simple opportunity. The flight was the last one of the day I believe from CDG to CAI. The airline owned by the state was the target as is the Egyptian tourist industry.

Viscount724 · Fri May 20, 2016 3:27 am

Quoting hivue (Reply 9):
Quoting SOBHI51 (Reply 6):
"So the search and rescue is still going on."

If the airplane broke up at high altitude due to a bomb or structural failure as many seem to believe, how large a debris field on the surface should that leave?

Initially, probably about the same as MH17, but since MS804 was over water, wreckage and debris can quickly move much further away from where it came down due to the currents. If memory correct the MH17 wreckage was scattered over a few km.

LAX772LR · Fri May 20, 2016 3:33 am

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 2):
I wonder who gets to investigate the accident...

Egypt will likely lead it, but there's going to be a joint effort between Egypt (destination and registration), France (origin and builder), Greece (possibly waters), with input and assistance from any country with citizens onboard.

And the USA can be involved due to engine (V2500), and is on standby for further assistance if asked, as that tends to be SOP. I doubt they'll be all that involved though.

Quoting jpetekyxmd80 (Reply 11):
It's rather shocking to me that no debris was found with a clear, whole day of searching a fairly precise area with a wealth of search vessels.

Quoting winterlight (Reply 13):
Just like when MH370 'crashed'.

It couldn't be more opposite to MH370, because there they were searching thousands of miles away, in a completely separate ocean, from where the crash site is now thought to be.

Here, they knew the general area of where the aircraft went down. It shouldn't have been that hard to locate, and yet, here we are with no crash site.

Quoting SOBHI51 (Reply 14):
Just heard, a dear lady friend ( from school), her husband, son and his wife were on the plane.

Oh damn, so sorry to hear that man.

[Edited 2016-05-19 21:14:42]

Yakflyer · Fri May 20, 2016 3:35 am

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 28):

There have been many accidents similar to this where it was later found that the crew mismanaged a minor situation. A dark night over the sea is a perfect condition to further disorient pilots. Flash AirFlight 604 (B737-300) crashed into the Red Sea shortly after takeoff from Sharm el-Sheik. The NTSB and the BEA concluded that the pilot suffered spatial disorientation. Adam Air Flight 574 B737-400 with a single IRU malfunction at high altitude, and Air Asia Flight 162 with a rudder limiter malfunction also at high altitude distracted the crews from flying the aircraft, and both made significant recovery errors resulting in crashing and killing all occupants. Gulf Air Flight 072 in 2000, also an A320, crashed after a go-around to Bahrain Internation at night into the sea also due to pilot disorientation. The crew of Egyptair Flight 804 may have become distracted with an anomaly and made a simple situation worse. It is likely the airplane broke apart at some point after departure from controlled flight during the descent.

Everybody is speculating this was caused by a bomb, but I'm not so sure. The turns that were reported by the news and rapid descent suggest to me the strong possibility of a stall. If the news is correct, the flight path of this aircraft is very similar to the flight paths of Air France 447 and AirAsia 8501.

I saw reported the captain had 6000 hours logged and the first officer had 3000 hours. By western standards that is not a lot of time and leads me to believe both of the crew members were trained in the last ten years. The point I am trying to make is I am not impressed with the stick & rudder skills that modern flight training is producing. If this airplane was involved in an upset the flight path may look very much like what was reported.

DocLightning · Fri May 20, 2016 3:40 am

Quoting SOBHI51 (Reply 14):

Just heard, a dear lady friend ( from school), her husband, son and his wife were on the plane.

May they rest in peace.

I'm so sorry.

Quoting danvs (Reply 52):

It's all about who will lead the investigation. The airline was not French, and the accident didn't take place over French territory. So, the BEA may assist the investigation, but in theory they are not required to do so.
AFAIK the Egyptians are the ones who will be responsible for the probe, and I'm not exactly sure they have the technical capabilities to get those boxes from that depth. Remember, it's not easy as getting something from 100ft of water.

The aircraft was French-built and originated in France so the BEA will be at least be partially involved, since the Egyptian authorities are certain to involve Airbus in the investigation. Were this a B777 out of JFK, then the BEA would probably offer assistance and might possibly be involved, but only to assist.

Also, France has a strong interest in this because if the explosive device was loaded at CDG then there's a problem for France.

jpetekyxmd80 · Fri May 20, 2016 3:40 am

Last transmitted info had it cruising along with a brisk tailwind at over 600 mph groundspeed.

It didn't stall. And the data doesn't match AF or AirAsia at all. They didn't just suddenly fall out of the sky like a rock.

[Edited 2016-05-19 20:42:25]

F9Animal · Fri May 20, 2016 3:44 am

Quoting LandSweetLand (Reply 41):
Didn't the first thread mention that either BBC or CNN was reporting that IS did claim responsibility? Was that another earlier falsity?

edit: it was post 10 in thread 2

I heard it on CNN.

Quoting redzeppelin (Reply 54):
My first thought was that a passenger on the inbound flight to CDG from Cairo may have left something behind. Perhaps even somebody who connected in CAI from an outlying airport - what is the transfer procedure there?Either way, I'm sure that authorities will investigate every person known to have been aboard the aircraft recently.

It's hard to believe someone left anything behind with 3 security agents onboard. Does anyone know if it is normal practice to have 3 security agents on a flight?

litz · Fri May 20, 2016 3:46 am

Quoting Yakflyer (Reply 58):
Everybody is speculating this was caused by a bomb, but I'm not so sure. The turns that were reported by the news and rapid descent suggest to me the strong possibility of a stall. If the news is correct, the flight path of this aircraft is very similar to the flight paths of Air France 447 and AirAsia 8501.

The odd thing here is, all the ADS data just .... stops.

In the event of an upset, as described above, either ACARS or ADS continues at least for a little while.

Even the Metrojet flight - which was bombed - data continued for a short period afterwards.

Wouldn't one expect ADS to continue in this case as well, even in case of a stall/upset?

When you think about the possibilities that could cause such a sudden, abrupt, cessation of ADS transmission, the list of items that are not sudden, abrupt, and catastrophic is very very small.

The list of events that can be that sudden, abrupt, and catastrophic is even smaller.

Aside : anyone know if this flight broadcast ACARS data? That info was very useful for AF447 ...

[Edited 2016-05-19 20:50:29]

rampbro · Fri May 20, 2016 4:03 am

Quoting litz (Reply 62):
The list of events that can be that sudden, abrupt, and catastrophic is even smaller.

To narrow that list down even further - how many of the scenarios from that list produce a crash which isn't discovered for 24 hours or more?

hivue · Fri May 20, 2016 4:06 am

Quoting jpetekyxmd80 (Reply 60):
And the data doesn't match AF or AirAsia at all.

What data? They haven't even found the wreckage yet, let alone the DFDR or CVR.

chrisp390 · Fri May 20, 2016 4:50 am

Is it not odd that the wreckage has not been found within 24 hours in a highly trafficked area along with a full search and rescue team too?

seahawk · Fri May 20, 2016 5:07 am

I would look at structural failure.

JetBuddy · Fri May 20, 2016 5:30 am

The currents in these parts of the Mediterranean go south, south-east. I'm guessing someone will find some parts washed ashore somewhere in Egypt, possibly Libya and Crete as well. There's not much chance of finding larger intact pieces on the surface of the ocean, most will be resting on the bottom by now.

LAX772LR · Fri May 20, 2016 5:44 am

Quoting chrisp390 (Reply 65):
Is it not odd that the wreckage has not been found within 24 hours in a highly trafficked area along with a full search and rescue team too?

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 67):
There's not much chance of finding larger intact pieces on the surface of the ocean

Why not? It's relatively calm water, and in some instances (e.g. AF447, SR111) we'd seen large and medium pieces of debris float for days, whereas others (MS990, TW800) we saw telltale oil slicks that lasted for weeks.

MSYPI7185 · Fri May 20, 2016 5:45 am

Don't know if this has been mentioned but, what about an uncommanded trust reverser deployment on #1 engine. that would explain a sudden left turn. With the aircraft upset at 600+ mph gs, the tail either breaks or the aircraft rolls over onto its back resulting in the right hand spiral at a high rate of speed until the airframe disintegrates. I know it would be extremely rare for an uncommanded thrust reverser deployment but, I am thinking about Lauda 004. I guess a question would be does the TR on Airbus have a mechanical lock to prevent this from happening or is it electrical in nature?

I admit terrorism comes to mind first but, I think we need more info first.

MD

litz · Fri May 20, 2016 5:56 am

IIRC, this particular A-320 had IAE-V2500 engines ...

I can't imagine a high speed mid-air deployment would be a good thing though.

Someone here w/specific knowledge on the A-320 and the V2500 will have to comment on if the same effect seen on the Lauda 767 (immediate disruption of lift causing an imbalance, and a resultant rollover/dive) would occur here as well.

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